It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Thursday, November 19, 2020
Japan lawmakers declare climate emergency after government sets zero emissions goal
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese lawmakers on Thursday declared a climate emergency in a symbolic vote aimed at increasing pressure for action to combat global warming after the government last month committed to a firm timetable for net-zero emissions.
With the vote by parliament’s powerful lower chamber, Japan - the world’s fifth-biggest carbon emitter - joins fellow Group of Seven members Britain, Canada and France in similar resolutions, as well as the European Union as a bloc and nearly 2,000 regional and city authorities around the world.
Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga last month announced Japan would aim to cut greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, a major shift for the world’s third-largest economy which relies heavily on imported fossil fuels for its energy sources.
The emergency, non-binding declaration - drafted by a cross-party group of legislators - cites “unprecedented damage” from hurricanes, flooding and forest fires, exacerbated by climate change at home and abroad, and said the world faces a “climate crisis”.
With erratic weather patterns from this year’s record hurricane season in the Atlantic to floods in Europe being linked to climate change, governments around the world face more calls to act even as the coronavirus pandemic rages, sapping resources.
Ruling Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Yoshihisa Furukawa, head of the secretariat of a non-partisan group of MPs behind the declaration, said the resolution was vital to show the world Japan was not lagging in the fight against global warming.
“I think this can send the message to the world that Japan’s parliament and government are firmly resolved to tackle this aiming at a carbon-free society,” he told Reuters, speaking before the vote.
The government is developing measures including investment funds and tax incentives to push through changes needed to reach the net zero emissions target, and Furukawa said the declaration would give impetus to those efforts given its non-partisan backing.
Japan’s new target for carbon neutrality could open the way for its beleaguered nuclear industry to fire up again, nearly a decade after the Fukushima disaster shut down most reactors, although the public remains wary. Nuclear provided about 30% of Japan’s electricity before Fukushima, when the country had 54 operable reactors compared with just two operating now.
Announcing the new emissions target, Prime Minister Suga said Japan would “pursue nuclear power” along with introducing as much renewable energy as possible, without specifying precise plans for reactors.
Still, frustrated scientists and activists have regularly sounded warnings that action is still lagging to meet the Paris Agreement target of curbing emissions enough to keep temperature rises to within 1.5-2 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels.
(Graphic: Japan's annual carbon emissions, )
Reporting by Linda Sieg, Aaron Sheldrick and Ami Miyazaki; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell
Racial attitudes in a community affect COVID-19 numbers
Implicit racial attitudes within a community can effectively explain racial disparities seen in rates of COVID-19 in the United States, according to a new study published this week in the open-access journal PLOS ONE by George Cunningham and Lisa Wigfall of Texas A&M University, USA.
There is a growing body of evidence showing that racial and ethnic minorities are more affected by severe illness, and more likely to be hospitalized, from COVID-19 compared to white people. This disparity can be only partially explained by the disproportionate rates of underlying medical conditions, such as asthma, diabetes, and obesity, seen among Black/African American people.
In the new study, researchers collected data from a variety of publicly available sources for 817 counties (26% of all counties) in the United States. The data included information on cumulative COVID-19 deaths and cases from January 22 to August 31, 2020 as well as explicit and implicit racial attitudes--collected through Harvard University's Project Implicit. The researchers also obtained a wide spectrum of demographic and economic information for these communities so that they could control for these factors.
The percent of Black residents in a county was positively associated with COVID-19 cases (r=0.47) and deaths (r=0.32) in the county. Moreover, both explicit and implicit racial attitudes were positively associated with COVID-19 (r=0.72). The results demonstrated that the relationship between race and COVID-19 cases was strongest when either explicit or implicit racial attitudes were highest. There was also an effect of implicit racial attitudes on COVID-19 deaths among the Black population. The authors conclude that implicit racial attitudes in a community can help explain racial disparities in COVID-19 rates.
The authors add: "These findings show that, even beyond the impact of county demographics, implicit and explicit racial attitudes impact the rates of COVID-19. Racial attitudes captured at the county level represent the bias of crowds and reflect deeper biases that are embedded into systems within society. These biases can negatively affect county residents, including their health and wellbeing."
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Citation: Cunningham GB, Wigfall LT (2020) Race, explicit racial attitudes, implicit racial attitudes, and COVID-19 cases and deaths: An analysis of counties in the United States. PLoS ONE 15(11): e0242044. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242044
Funding: The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Marx (especially in his youth) develops an original analysis of individualism, rooted in the structure of modern society. He criticizes on the one hand Hegel and many representatives of the ‘Hegelian left’, on the other hand ‘vulgar materialism’ and Feuerbach. Nevertheless, it remains true that in Marxism (especially in Second-International Marxism) ‘individualism’ was seen negatively and, consequently, the individual and their activities were always pushed towards the background, in order to emphasize the relevance of collective factors (classes, state, political parties, etc) for explaining social change. The question is whether this outcome has its roots in Marxian analyses or it is the result of a theoretical distortion by early Marxist orthodoxy, due to the lack of knowledge of young Marx’s significant works: the Critique of Hegel’s Philosophyof Right was published in 1927, the Economic and Philosophic Manuscripts of1844 and the German Ideology were published in full version in 1932 and the Grundrisse were published in 1939-41. However, to reclaim young Marx’s rich analysis of modern individualism seems important in order to build a historically oriented analysis of individuals and of their relations to society. This approach would let us move away from the prevailing axiomatic approach of both mainstream economics—centered on homo oeconomicus and their selfish motives—and many representatives of contemporary sociology, who aim at building universal explanations based on the hypothesis of rational agents acting in a social environment inhabited by ‘isolated individuals’, at the expense of the historical features of individual activities.
A recent review of published studies in non-human mammals examines "sexual disturbance," or male behavior towards a female around mating that can be costly for the female--for example, that might inflict physical harm or cause mother-offspring separation. The findings are published in Mammal Review.
The author, Marcelo H. Cassini, PhD, of the Laboratorio de Biología del Comportamiento, in Argentina, found that sexual disturbance was frequent in 4 of the 32 mammalian orders examined: Primates, Artiodactyla, Carnivora, and Cetacea, which all include species with polygyny (in which a male mates with multiple females). The most common response of females to sexual disturbance was grouping around a dominant male.
The most common expression of sexual conflict around copulation was seen in behaviors associated with female retention attempts that cause minor harm. Research suggests that the most common response of females to sexual disturbance comprises female grouping around a dominant male.
Additional research is needed to see whether sexual disturbance affects the reproductive success of males and females.
"This review suggests that sexual aggression is a rare behavior among the thousands of species of mammals," Dr. Cassini
NO DRINKING! NO FIGHTING! The laws of early Edo Japan to keep the peace
The official document details how workers should act during the reconstruction of Sunpu Castle.
IMAGE: A LETTER FROM THE LORD OF THE HOSOKAWA CLAN TO THE FOUR VASSALS IN CHARGE STATING THE RULES TO BE FOLLOWED. view more
CREDIT: PROFESSOR TSUGUHARU INABA
An early Edo period document stipulating the Hosokawa clan code of conduct for vassals dispatched on a national project to rebuild Sunpu Castle has been discovered by Kumamoto University researchers. The thirteen articles from the head of the Hosokawa clan in the Kokura domain (area), Tadaoki Hosokawa at the time, delegate full authority to the vassals to lead construction and prevent conflicts with other clans. It is the second original code of conduct document related to the Sunpu Castle reconstruction effort to be discovered.
During the Edo period (1603-1867), the Japanese central government mobilized feudal lords from all over the country to build and repair important castles and carry out extensive infrastructure development. It is commonly believed that these national projects prevented clans from accumulating wealth by forcing them to send out materials and men, thereby establishing a system of control in the territory. Sunpu Castle, located in the center of Japan in Shizuoka Prefecture, was closely associated with the first of the Edo Shogunate (Ieyasu Tokugawa) and was an important base for the Edo Shogunate. A major expansion of the castle was delayed by a fire in December of 1607, but was quickly rebuilt by the following year. A number of daimyo clans were mobilized from all over Japan for this series of restoration projects.
The document found by researchers was issued by the head of the Hosokawa clan, Tadaoki Hosokawa, on January 8th, 1608, and outlined the Hosokawa clan code of conduct for vassals during reconstruction and their journey from Kokura (now northern Kyushu) to the Sunpu Castle reconstruction site (southwest of Tokyo). Consistent throughout this code is a strict prohibition of any action that might lead to quarrels with vassals or workers of other clans. Articles 9 and 10 delegated full authority of the renovation site to the four persons named and the superintendent in charge of the Hosokawa clan.
Article 1 instructs the entire Hosokawa workforce to follow the instructions of the superintendent, Masazumi Honda - Aide to the Shogun, in all matters of discipline. Article 2 stipulates that fighting within the clan must be strictly avoided. Those engaged in fighting, as well as those who supported them, were punished (usually by death).
Articles 3 to 5 are provisions aimed at preventing fights with other clans. Going to watch another clan's fight was a punishable offense (Article 3). If a servant escaped to another house, he was not returned forcefully. On the other hand, those who escaped from other clans were to be returned after the completion of the project (Article 4). Lodging fees from Kokura to Sunpu were to be paid in accordance with the "Gohatto" (laws & regulations) (Article 5).
CAPTION
National projects in the Edo period required lords from all parts of the country to contribute manpower. It is commonly believed that the roles of these projects were 1) to prevent clans from accumulating wealth, and 2) to establish a system of control over their territories by forcing them to provide materials and manpower.
The second half of the code provides a glimpse into the life of the soldier class (ashi-garu) mobilized for the project. Alcohol (sake) was strictly prohibited. They could bring their own food (bento), but were not to drink more than three small flat sake cups (sakazuki) of alcohol (Article 6). When going to town, they were supposed to declare the nature of their errand to the magistrate and obtain a permit (Article 7). Meetings with people from other clans or the shogunate were strictly forbidden (Article 8). Hot baths in another clan's facilities were not allowed (Article 11). Sumo wrestling and spectating were strictly forbidden during the period of the project, and violators would be punished (Article 12). On the round trip between Kokura and Sunpu, workers were to travel in groups as indicated on an attached sheet (Article 13). This purpose of this historical document was to maintain peace at the project site and vividly conveys the aspects of the samurai society during its transition from a time of war to peace and prosperity.
When asked about the academic significance of this document, Professor Tsuguharu Inaba said, "This discovery provides us with a great deal of information about the politics concerning feudal lord mobilization by the shogunate to build castles." Professor Inaba discovered the document and was part of the Eiseibunko Research Center team at Kumamoto University who deciphered it.
Until now, only two documents related to the reconstruction of Sunpu Castle were known: an original code of conduct written by Mori Terumoto, feudal lord of the Choshu clan, and another, which is a copy of the Choshu clan document, from Maeda Toshinaga, feudal lord of the Kaga clan. The discovery of this ancient document and the fact that the three documents are similar means that each clan was likely presented with a general code of conduct framework by the shogunate. Each clan then established the rules in the name of their feudal lord and required their vassals to enforce them.
The Hosokawa and Mori clans had been enemies in a major civil war (culminating in the Battle of Sekigahara) only seven years earlier and if something had sparked an old grudge, a major conflict could have evolved. The shogunate dared to mobilize the adversarial clans for the same national project to discipline them and make their joint efforts more visible. This ancient document reveals an attempt to thoroughly prevent conflicts between the clans and suggests that the shogunate was trying to eliminate the seeds of civil war by reconciling relations between clans. In other words, the government strategically implemented a national project to establish peace within Japan.
This document was made public for the first time on the 4th of November 2020 at the Kumamoto University Library Online Exhibition of Rare and Valuable Materials.
The 4th and 5th images on the website show Tadaoki Hosokawa's Official Code of Conduct which was made into law on January 8th, 1608 (in Japan's Keicho period)
CAPTION
For the Hosokawa clan, the code of conduct written by Lord Hosokawa included a limit on drinking alcohol. Workers could only drink 3 small flat sake cups (sakazuki) of alcohol per day. Other rules included limits on Sumo wrestling/spectating, details for dealing with run-away servants, and an order to not use the bathing facilities of another clan. To maintain a peaceful atmosphere, fighting was strictly prohibited and those who engaged in the act could be punished by death.
The timeless, complimentary taste of oysters and champagne -- explained
According to a study published by the University of Copenhagen today, an uncanny umami synergy makes the combination of yeast-brewed bubbly and fresh molluscs a match made in heaven
Matching prices aren't the only reason oysters and champagne pair so well. According to a study published by the University of Copenhagen today, an uncanny umami synergy makes the combination of yeast-brewed bubbly and fresh molluscs a match made in heaven for some. Ironically, the new knowledge could help us consume more vegetables in the future.
Oysters and champagne are considered a perfect pairing. Now, researchers from the University of Copenhagen's Department of Food Science have found flavours in a range of champagnes and variety of Danish oysters that for the first time provide the scientific explanation for why these two foods complement one another so well.
"The answer is to be found in the so-called umami taste, which along with sweet and salty, is one of the five basic flavours detectable to human taste buds. Many people associate umami with the flavour of meat. But now, we have discovered that it is also found in both oysters and champagne," states Professor Ole G. Mouritsen from the Department of Food Science at UCPH.
In champagne, dead yeast cells contribute greatly to an umami flavour (glutamate). And as for oysters, the umami emerges from the mollusc's muscles (nucleotides).
"Food and drink pair well when they spark an umami synergy from combinations of glutamate and certain nucleotides. Champagne and oysters create a notably synergistic effect that greatly enhances the taste of the champagne. Furthermore, champagne contributes to the overall impression with, for example, its acidity and bubbles. That explains the harmony of these two foods," explains PhD student Charlotte Vinther Schmidt, the study's lead author.
Could get people to consume more vegetables
Besides the more luxurious example of oysters and champagne, the professor also points to ham and cheese, eggs and bacon and tomato and meat as gastronomic companions with umami synergy.
The professor believes that this synergy and taste is important to us humans for food choices. According to him, we are evolutionarily encoded to crave umami, as it is a sign of protein-rich food that is important to our bodies.
The encoding may be responsible for us being less enthusiastic about eating umami-less vegetables.
"Understanding the umami principle is particularly important because it can help get us to eat more vegetables. By being cognizant of umami synergy, one can make any vegetable tasty. And, it is my firm belief that if we want more people to eat more vegetables, we need to deal with the fact that greens lack umami," says Ole G. Mouritsen.
Local oysters and old champagne
For the ultimate combination of New Year's Eve oysters and champagne, Professor Mouritsen suggests native Danish Limfjord oysters and an older vintage champagne.
"One gets the most bang for the buck and best taste experience by tracking down flat Limfjord oysters and an unfortunately slightly more expensive bottle of older champagne. Older vintage champagnes have more dead yeast cells, which provide more umami. And Limfjord oysters contain large quantities of the substances that give umami synergy. Still, one shouldn't hesitate from purchasing the invasive Pacific oysters that are harvested in the same area as our native Limfjord species. They too can share an umami synergy with champagne, as the study shows," says Mouritsen
The research was published in Scientific Reports and conducted by Charlotte Vinther Schmidt, Karsten Olsen and Ole G. Mouritsen of the University of Copenhagen's Department of Food Science.
Facts:
In the study, the researchers examined a variety of champagnes, along with both Limfjord oysters and Pacific oysters. The study marks the first time that a scientific explanation has been provided for why oysters and champagne pair so well.
It is the combination of the amino acid glutamic acid and nucleotides from the breakdown of muscles from fish, molluscs and shellfish, for example, that greatly enhance umami taste.
The umami taste is derived from the concurrent binding of the salt (glutamate) of a free amino acid (glutamic acid) along with nucleotides to the umami receptor found in the taste buds of our tongues and in the oral cavity.
IMAGE: WITH MOUTHS CLOSED, THE OLDER, SMALLER TEETH OF THE ANCESTORS OF TODAY'S SHARKS STOOD UPRIGHT ON THE JAW, WHILE THE YOUNGER AND LARGER TEETH POINTED TOWARDS THE TONGUE AND WERE... view more
CREDIT: ILLUSTRATION: CHRISTIAN KLUG, UZH
Some, if not all, early sharks that lived 300 to 400 million years ago not only dropped their lower jaws downward but rotated them outwards when opening their mouths. This enabled them to make the best of their largest, sharpest and inward-facing teeth when catching prey, paleontologists at the Universities of Zurich and Chicago have now shown using CT scanning and 3D printing.
Many modern sharks have row upon row of formidable sharp teeth that constantly regrow and can easily be seen if their mouths are just slightly opened. But this was not always the case. The teeth in the ancestors of today's cartilaginous fish (chondrichthyan), which include sharks, rays and chimaeras, were replaced more slowly. With mouths closed, the older, smaller and worn out teeth of sharks stood upright on the jaw, while the younger and larger teeth pointed towards the tongue and were thus invisible when the mouth was closed.
Jaw reconstruction thanks to computed tomography
Paleontologists at the University of Zurich, the University of Chicago and the Naturalis Biodiversity Center in Leiden (Netherlands) have now examined the structure and function of this peculiar jaw construction based on a 370-million-year-old chondrichthyan from Morocco. Using computed tomography scans, the researchers were able not only to reconstruct the jaw, but also print it out as a 3D model. This enabled them to simulate and test the jaw's mechanics.
What they discovered in the process was that unlike in humans, the two sides of the lower jaw were not fused in the middle. This enabled the animals to not only drop the jaw halves downward but at the same automatically rotate both outwards. "Through this rotation, the younger, larger and sharper teeth, which usually pointed toward the inside of the mouth, were brought into an upright position. This made it easier for animals to impale their prey," explains first author Linda Frey. "Through an inward rotation, the teeth then pushed the prey deeper into the buccal space when the jaws closed."
Jaw joint widespread in the Paleozoic era
This mechanism not only made sure the larger, inward-facing teeth were used, but also enabled the animals to engage in what is known as suction-feeding. "In combination with the outward movement, the opening of the jaws causes sea water to rush into the oral cavity, while closing them results in a mechanical pull that entraps and immobilizes the prey."
Since cartilaginous skeletons are barely mineralized and generally not that well preserved as fossils, this jaw construction has evaded researchers for a long time. "The excellently preserved fossil we've examined is a unique specimen," says UZH paleontologist and last author Christian Klug. He and his team believe that the described type of jaw joint played an important role in the Paleozoic era. With increasingly frequent tooth replacement, however, it became obsolete over time and was replaced by the often peculiar and more complex jaws of modern-day sharks and rays.
Cichlid fishes from African Lake Tanganyika shed light on how organismal diversity arises
IMAGE: OPHTHALMOTILAPIA VENTRALIS, A CICHLID FROM LAKE TANGANYIKA. view more
CREDIT: PHOTO: ADRIAN INDERMAUR, UNIVERSITY OF BASEL/ZOOLOGY
Lake Tanganyika in Africa is a true hotspot of organismal diversity. Approximately 240 species of cichlid fishes have evolved in this lake in less than 10 million years. A research team from the University of Basel has investigated this phenomenon of "explosive speciation" and provides new insights into the origins of biological diversity, as they report in the journal Nature.
The diversity of life on Earth has been shaped by two antagonistic processes: phases of mass extinctions and episodes characterized by the rapid evolution of a multitude of new species. Such outbursts of organismal diversity, also known as "adaptive radiations", are responsible for a substantial part of the biological species on our planet.
For instance, most of the animal phyla existing today evolved over the course of the Cambrian radiation about 540 million years ago (also known as Cambrian explosion). What triggered these massive adaptive radiations, and how the process of explosive speciation proceeds in detail, has been largely unknown until now.
Different stages of adaptive radiation
The cichlid fishes of the African Great Lakes Victoria, Malawi and Tanganyika are among the most impressive examples of "adaptive radiation". Using the cichlid fishes of Lake Tanganyika as a model system, a team of scientists headed by Professor Walter Salzburger from the University of Basel have now investigated in detail the phenomenon of adaptive radiation. On extensive field expeditions to Burundi, Tanzania and Zambia, they collected specimens from virtually all approximately 240 species of cichlid fishes occurring in Lake Tanganyika.
Based on this material, they compiled a comprehensive dataset covering information on morphology, ecology, and genetics. For example, the team analyzed body shape and jaw morphology of all species using X-ray imaging and high-resolution computed tomography. The zoologists were particularly interested in the three-dimensional structure of the pharyngeal jaw. This second set of jaws is situated in the pharynx of cichlid fishes and is used to masticate food, allowing the fish to specialize in very specific nutritional niches.
Because adaptation to different environments is a central component of adaptive radiation, the researchers also quantified the "ecological niche" used by each species. In collaboration with the Botanical Institute of the University of Basel, they measured the stable carbon and nitrogen isotope composition in the muscle tissue of the fish. These measurements allow to determine in what habitat the fishes lived and what food resources they used. Further, the team sequenced two complete genomes for each and every cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika. Based on this molecular information they were able to reconstruct the complete phylogeny of the cichlids in that lake.
Based on their analyses, the scientists could demonstrate that the evolution of cichlid fishes in Lake Tanganyika was not a gradual process, but rather occurred in three discrete pulse-like stages of rapid morphological evolution.
"Each of these stages was characterized by specialization to a different aspect of the habitat provided by the lake," says lead author Dr. Fabrizia Ronco. The first pulse involved diversification in body shape followed by a pulse in mouth morphology and a final pulse in pharyngeal jaw shape. Especially the pharyngeal jaw has played a key role in the radiation, since its rapid morphological evolution coincided with a high number of speciation events.
Insight into the evolution of organismal diversity
Through the analysis of the roughly 600 newly sequenced genomes, the Basel researchers showed that the most species-rich and ecologically and morphologically diverse lineages of Tanganyikan cichlids contain species that are genetically more diverse. "Whether an elevated level of genetic diversity is a general feature of highly diverse lineages, or if this pattern is unique to cichlids of Lake Tanganyika, is still unknown," says Salzburger.
By studying exceptionally species-rich adaptive radiations, like the African cichlids, scientist can learn more about how biodiversity arises and what factors are associated with it. The present findings of the zoologists from the University of Basel offer new routes to these questions.
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How fishermen have adapted to change over the past 35+ years
IMAGE: AN ANALYSIS PUBLISHED IN FISH AND FISHERIES NOTES THAT MARINE FISHERIES ARE INCREASINGLY EXPOSED TO EXTERNAL DRIVERS OF SOCIAL AND ECOLOGICAL CHANGE, AND RECENT CHANGES HAVE HAD DIFFERENT IMPACTS UPON... view more
CREDIT: AMERICAN ALBACORE FISHING ASSOCIATION
An analysis published in Fish and Fisheries notes that marine fisheries are increasingly exposed to external drivers of social and ecological change, and recent changes have had different impacts upon the livelihood strategies favored by fishermen based on the size of their boats.
The analysis describes changes among Pacific Northwest fishermen over 35+ years, with a focus on the albacore troll and pole-and-line fishery. In describing different trajectories associated with the albacore fishery, one of the U.S. West Coast's last open access fisheries, the authors highlight the diverse strategies used to sustain fishing livelihoods in the modern era. They argue that alternative approaches to management and licensing may be needed to maintain the viability of small-scale fishing operations worldwide.
"While resource managers have traditionally focused on maximizing economic returns one species at a time, new approaches that prioritize diversity and flexibility may be required to help coastal communities navigate the uncertainty associated with climate change and the globalization of seafood markets," said lead author Timothy H. Frawley, PhD, of NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center and the University of California Santa Cruz.
Vertebrate biodiversity- a glimmer of hope
Extreme losses in a few populations drive apparent global vertebrate decline
IMAGE: RED ASTERISKS NEAR A VERTEBRATE INDICATE CLUSTERS OF POPULATIONS OF SPECIFIC TYPES (AMPHIBIANS, SMALL MAMMALS, LARGE MAMMALS, FISH, BIRDS OR REPTILES) THAT ARE SUFFERING EXTREME DECLINES (16 SYSTEMS) BLUE ASTERISKS... view more
CREDIT: MCGILL UNIVERSITY
Vertebrate populations - from birds and fish to antelope - are not, in general, declining. Despite what has previously been thought and said.
A McGill University-led team of biologists found, in an article published today in Nature, that the picture of dramatically declining vertebrate populations of all kinds is driven by a small number of outlier populations whose numbers are dropping at extreme rates. Once these outliers are separated from the mix, a very different and far more hopeful picture of global biodiversity emerges.
(Populations are groups of individuals of the same species living in a particular area, and therefore decreases in population size will precede loss of species.)
Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated
It all comes down to math, modeling and different approaches to calculating averages.
It has typically been estimated that vertebrate populations have declined on average by more than 50% since 1970, based on historical wildlife monitoring data. "However, given previous mathematical methods used to model vertebrate populations, this estimate could arise from two very different scenarios: widespread systematic declines, or a few extreme declines," explains Brian Leung a McGill ecologist, the UNESCO Chair in Dialogues for Sustainability, and the senior author on the study. In this paper the researchers approached the question differently.
Using a dataset of over 14,000 vertebrate populations from around the globe collated in the Living Planet Database, the researchers identified about 1% of vertebrate populations which have suffered extreme population declines since 1970 (such as reptiles in tropical areas of North, Central and South America, and birds in the Indo-Pacific region). When this extreme 1% was accounted for, the researchers found the remaining vertebrate populations were neither generally increasing nor decreasing, when grouped all together.
"The variation in this global aggregate is also important. Some populations really are in trouble and regions such as the Indo-Pacific are showing widespread systematic declines. However, the image of a global 'biodiversity desert' is not supported by the evidence." says Leung. "This is good, as it would be very discouraging if all of our conservation efforts over the last five decades had little effect."
"We were surprised by how strong the effect of these extreme populations was in driving the previous estimate of average global decline," adds co-author Anna Hargreaves, a professor in the Biology Department at McGill. "Our results identify regions that need urgent action to ameliorate widespread biodiversity declines, but also reason to hope that our actions can make a difference."
CAPTION
Red asterisks near a vertebrate indicate clusters of populations of specific types (amphibians, small mammals, large mammals, fish, birds or reptiles) that are suffering extreme declines (16 systems). Blue asterisks indicate clusters of populations of specific types (amphibians, small mammals, large mammals, fish, birds or reptiles) that are growing significantly (8 systems). Distribution curves show the situation of typical populations in each system. After removal of extreme clusters of populations where there are significant increases or declines, the remaining populations are divided into: Yellow - indicates populations where there is little change. Green - indicates populations where, in general, the trend is towards a significant increase, though the data remains insufficient to conclude this with confidence. Orange - indicates populations where, in general, the trend is towards a significant decrease, though the data remains insufficient to conclude this with confidence.
Founded in Montreal, Quebec, in 1821, McGill University is Canada's top ranked medical doctoral university. McGill is consistently ranked as one of the top universities, both nationally and internationally. It is a world-renowned institution of higher learning with research activities spanning two campuses, 11 faculties, 13 professional schools, 300 programs of study and over 40,000 students, including more than 10,200 graduate students. McGill attracts students from over 150 countries around the world, its 12,800 international students making up 31% of the student body. Over half of McGill students claim a first language other than English, including approximately 19% of our students who say French is their mother tongue.
CAPTION
Red asterisks near a vertebrate indicate clusters of populations of specific types (amphibians, small mammals, large mammals, fish, birds or reptiles) that are suffering extreme declines (16 systems) Blue asterisks indicate clusters of populations of specific types (amphibians, small mammals, large mammals, fish, birds or reptiles) that are growing significantly (8 systems) After removal of extreme clusters of populations where there are significant increases or declines, the remaining populations are divided into: Yellow - indicates populations where there is little change. Green - indicates populations where, in general, the trend is towards a significant increase, though the data remains insufficient to conclude this with confidence. Orange - indicates populations where, in general, the trend is towards a significant decrease, though the data remains insufficient to conclude this with confidence. Distribution curves show the situation of typical populations in each system.
