Climate change makes Indian monsoon stronger, more erratic: study

Climate change is making India's monsoon stronger and more chaotic, scientists said Wednesday, warning of potential severe consequences for food, farming and the economy affecting nearly a fifth of the world's population.

© Punit PARANJPE India's monsoon rains were unusually heavy in 2020

A new analysis comparing more than 30 climate models from around the world predicts more extremely wet rainy seasons, which sweep in from the sea from roughly June to September each year.

Researchers at the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) found strong evidence that every degree Celsius of warming would likely increase monsoon rainfall by about five percent.

The study not only confirmed trends seen in previous research, but found "global warming is increasing monsoon rainfall in India even more than previously thought," said lead author Anja Katzenberger, also of Ludwig Maximilian University. © XAVIER GALIANA Excess monsoon rains can have an impact on agriculture and the economy

"It is dominating monsoon dynamics in the 21st century."

This raises the possibility that key crops -- including rice -- could be swamped during crucial growing stages.

Moreover, the monsoon is likely to become more erratic as warming increases, according to the study, published in the journal Earth System Dynamics.

"Since Indian society is overall affected by the monsoon in a very strong way, stronger variability produces problems for agriculture, but also for the organisation of public life," said Anders Levermann from PIK and Columbia University.

"If your roads are flooded, if your train tracks are flooded, that inhibits economic productivity."

He said the year-to-year variability would also complicate strategies to cope with the increasing strength of the rainy season.

"More chaos in the Indian monsoon rainfall will make it harder to adapt," he told AFP.

- Climate impacts -

The research tracked dramatic shifts in the monsoon from the mid-20th century, when human-driven alterations began to overtake the slower natural changes that occur over millennia.

Initially, air pollution from aerosols -- which largely reflect sunlight and act to subdue warming -- caused monsoon rainfall to decrease.

But then, from the 1980s, the warming effects of greenhouse gases began to dominate, driving stronger and more volatile rainy seasons, the researchers said.

The planet's average surface temperature has gone up 1.1 degrees Celsius on average compared to the late 19th-century, with much of that warming occurring in the last half-century.

The 2015 Paris Agreement enjoins the world's nations to collectively cap global warming at "well below" 2C, and even 1.5C if feasible -- although experts say that target is fast slipping out of reach.

Last year, five of the most costly extreme weather events in the world were related to Asia's unusually rainy monsoon, according to a tally by the charity Christian Aid.

Intense flooding in China and India, where the monsoon season brought abnormal amounts of rainfall for the second year running, are consistent with projections on how climate will impact precipitation.

In 2013, some 6,000 people died when flash floods and landslides swept away entire villages in the Indian state of Uttarakhand as rivers swollen by monsoon rains overflowed.

Canadian emissions to make up outsized portion of what climate can bear: study

 Greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil and gas industry will make up an outsized share of the remaining carbon the world's atmosphere can take, a new analysis suggests.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

"Canada is no small player here," said Angela Carter of the University of Waterloo, who released the research in advance of U.S. President Joe Biden's meeting on climate change next week.

"Let's tell the truth about what we're actually doing and what that global impact is," said Carter, a political scientist who specializes in environmental policy.

Scientists have concluded that if global warming is to stay within the 1.5 degrees prescribed in the Paris agreement, there's only so much more carbon that can go into the atmosphere. That so-called "carbon budget" is about 230 billion tonnes.

Carter and co-author Truzaar Dordi, a doctoral candidate, decided to look at what Canada's contribution to that budget would be.

In a paper released by the Cascade Institute, a sustainable growth think tank, they used government projections of Canadian oil and gas production, accounting for increasingly stringent carbon regulation. That production is to rise until 2039 and remain above current levels to 2050, when Canada has promised its emissions will be net zero.

The team combined those numbers with official estimates of how much carbon is released in the production and consumption of Canadian oil and projected how much would be released between now and 2050. They compared that to the global carbon budget.

"When I ran the numbers, I quadruple-checked them," said Carter.

Canada, with 0.5 per cent of the world's population, would account for 16 per cent of all the carbon that could be emitted while keeping climate change manageable.

"It's frightening to see that and infuriating to see the federal government depict itself as a global environmental leader," Carter said. "The evidence doesn't support that."

She's skeptical of federal Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson's promise Tuesday that 2019 will prove to be the last year Canada sees a rise in greenhouse gas emissions.

"It is not a statement based in reality."

Environment Canada was not immediately able to respond to Carter's research.

Carter said increases in fossil fuel production will require other parts of the economy to take up the slack if Canada is to meet its reduction targets.

"To get to a position where we see declining emissions from Canada would mean heroic emissions reductions across all other sectors."

Capturing carbon dioxide from large emitters and piping it permanently underground, one of the solutions often pointed to, has limitations, Carter said.

"It's still extremely expensive and requires a lot of government support."

Her paper points out the industry already enjoys considerable public support — from Ottawa's $12.6-billion purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline to the $1.7 billion committed to clean up abandoned energy infrastructure.

Using federal records, Carter found that between March 2020 and 2021, fossil fuel industries and associations met with government officials a total of 1,224 times, an average of 4.5 times a day. Environmental groups met with government 303 times.

"In the last year, we can really see that advocacy coming out in full force," she said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 14, 2021

— Follow @row1960 on Twitter.

Bob Weber, The Canadian Press

'Let's make it count': World leaders, royalty and environmentalists gear up for major climate summit COP26

© Provided by CNBC 

World leaders are set to meet for the COP26 climate summit later this year.

A range of stakeholders are preparing to meet for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties, or COP26, in November.

It was originally due to take place in 2020 but was rescheduled because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Six years ago, after days of painstaking negotiations, world leaders managed to thrash out a deal on climate change. The result was the Paris Agreement, decided at the COP21 summit in Paris.

Described by the United Nations as a legally-binding international treaty on climate change, the landmark accord aims to "limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels." 2 degrees Celsius is around 35 degrees Fahrenheit.

Now, years later, politicians are — pandemic permitting — preparing to meet once again for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties, or COP26.

Below, CNBC's Sustainable Future gives the lowdown on the talks.

The basics

As things stand, COP26 will be hosted by the U.K. and held in the Scottish city of Glasgow between Nov. 1 and 12, 2021. It was originally due to take place in Nov. 2020, but was rescheduled because of the coronavirus pandemic.

COP stands for Conference of the Parties — in other words, countries — while the number 26 refers to the fact it will be the 26th summit. The European Union is considered a "party" to the Paris Agreement in its own right, as are its 27 member states.

The U.K. government says talks at COP26, "will bring together heads of state, climate experts and campaigners to agree coordinated action to tackle climate change."

If all goes to plan, thousands of people are expected to attend the event in Glasgow.

Italy has been designated as a "co-host" of COP26 and in late September a three day "Pre-COP" session will take place in Milan, which between 35 and 40 countries are expected to attend.
All present and correct?

Participants at COP25, which was held in Spain at the end of 2019, included the U.S., China, India and the European Union. It's hoped all will be active, vocal participants at the talks in Glasgow.

A great deal of attention will focus on China in the run up to this year's event, not least because it is an industrial and economic powerhouse and the planet's biggest emitter of carbon dioxide.

In an illustration of the challenges involved when it comes to coordinating major international summits, China did not take part in a recent climate meeting held by the U.K. ahead of COP26.

The BBC reported that China was not involved in the meeting, which was attended by the EU, U.S., India and others, despite being invited.

China did, however, take part in the IEA-COP26 Net Zero Summit, which was held on the same day.
Ambition the watchword

Digging a bit deeper into the main summit's aims, the U.K.'s official website for COP26 states it will, "bring parties together to accelerate action towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change."

A lot is riding on COP26. "We know that in order to limit the warming of the Earth to 1.5C at a maximum, the international community, and major and historical emitters need to bring highly ambitious plans," Jake Woodier, COP26 Campaign Manager at The Climate Coalition, a group focused on tackling climate change, told CNBC via email.

"The U.K. as … host needs to play an active role in ensuring this takes place through climate diplomacy, while also providing an example to the world by implementing ambitious and visionary green measures at home."

Helen Clarkson, who is CEO of the Climate Group, an international non-profit, told CNBC that COP26 was "a crucial moment in the fight against climate change."

"As host of the talks, the U.K. has a responsibility to lead from the front and urge governments to set net zero goals that align with the Paris agreement, limiting global temperature rises to no more than 1.5 degrees C," she added.

"To overshoot this would be a catastrophe for people and planet that must be avoided at all costs."
A huge challenge

Much of the discussions at Glasgow will be centered around nationally determined contributions, or NDCs. In simple terms, NDCs refer to individual countries' targets for cutting emissions and adapting to the effects of climate change.

All countries that are part of the Paris Agreement are supposed to update their NDCs every five years. This is important because the targets need to be ramped up regularly in order meet the agreement's overall target of limiting global warming.

In theory, these updates should have been submitted by the end of 2020. In practice, this didn't happen due to a multitude of reasons, including Covid-19 related disruption.

Published in February, a UN report showed that as of Dec. 31 last year, only 75 parties involved in the Paris Agreement had updated their NDCs. This represents just 40% of the total number involved, and together they account for only 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The interim report was described as a "red alert for our planet" by UN Secretary General António Guterres.

"It shows governments are nowhere close to the level of ambition needed to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement," he added.

Elsewhere, Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of UN Climate Change, said the report showed that current targets were "very far from putting us on a pathway that will meet our Paris Agreement goals." An updated version of this report will be published in the run up to COP26.
Greta Thunberg and other stumbling blocks

The anxiety surrounding new NDCs — or the lack of them — is one of several stumbling blocks already experienced by the summit.

Despite already being rescheduled once, Sky News reported at the end of March that the summit could be postponed for a second time because of the pandemic.

Meanwhile, teenage activist Greta Thunberg – a hugely influential figure in the climate change movement – recently cast doubt on her attendance.

Given all of the above, what would need to be achieved and agreed at COP26 for it to be considered a success?

"Success would look like rigorous targets that embody a high level of ambition that ensures warming is kept to below 1.5C," The Climate Coalition's Woodier said.

"Beyond that, it's imperative that richer nations commit to equitable financing contributions to ensure poorer nations are supported in full to transform their economies."
Prince William weighs in

COP26 represents an opportunity for high-level discussions on a broad range of topics connected to the environment.

The U.K. says its COP26 Presidency will focus on five things: finance, clean road transport, adaptation and resilience, the energy transition and nature. The latter has some high-profile advocates, including Prince William.

Addressing the virtual spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group last week, the Duke of Cambridge said protecting and restoring nature was "critical to the success of COP26 in Glasgow later this year and for the brighter, greener, more prosperous future that we all want to see."

"We cannot recover sustainably from coronavirus, eradicate global poverty, achieve net zero emissions or adapt to climate change without investing in nature," he added.

COP26, William went on to state, was a "vital step on the path to putting nature center stage in our fight against climate change."

"The decisions that leaders take in Glasgow will echo down the generations for years to come. So let's make it count."

Psychedelic drug worked for depression as well as common antidepressant, small trial finds

Kaitlin Sullivan NBC 4/14/2021

A couple doses of a psychedelic drug may be as effective in treating depression as one of the most commonly prescribed antidepressants, a small and short study published Wednesday shows.

© Provided by NBC News

A phase 2 clinical trial, conducted by researchers in London, was the first randomized one to compare therapeutic doses of psilocybin — the psychedelic compound found in so-called magic mushrooms — with a daily medication. The results were released in The New England Journal of Medicine.

“This is huge because it’s showing that psilocybin is at least as good — and probably better — than the gold standard treatment for depression,” said Roland Griffiths, director of the Center for Psychedelic and Consciousness Research at Johns Hopkins University, who was not involved in the study.

Research on how psychedelics can be used to treat mental health conditions is still in its early stages, and much more will be needed to determine whether or not psychedelics including psilocybin are an effective long-term treatment. It’s also still unclear how treatment involving psychedelics would be used in the real world, as patients must be monitored for hours when given the drug.

This small, six-week trial included 59 adults, nearly 40 percent of whom were taking medication to treat their depression prior to the study, but were weaned off. Thirty participants received two 25 mg doses of psilocybin three weeks apart, plus six weeks of a daily placebo pill. The remaining 29 were also given psilocybin during two visits, but such a small amount that it did not have an effect and was only meant to be a placebo. The second group also took a daily dose of escitalopram — the generic version of the antidepressant Lexapro — a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor, or SSRI.

Participants in both groups were given the psilocybin dose in a clinician’s office where they were monitored until the clinician determined any effects had worn off and the individual could safely go home.

At the end of the six weeks, the researchers used four different measures of depression to determine whether or not the participants’ symptoms had improved: Two questionnaires filled out by the participants, and two evaluations from the clinicians.

All but one, a self-reported questionnaire called QIDS-SR-16, showed that people who took psilocybin reported a greater improvement in depressive symptoms than those who took Lexapro. The QIDS-SR-16 results, which was the depression measurement method the researchers reported they would focus on before starting the trial, showed that psilocybin was as effective as escitalopram. (Before beginning a study, researchers must outline what measures they plan to evaluate, and stick to this methodology regardless of the results.)

“We were honestly surprised that psilocybin performed as well as it did,” said lead researcher Robin Carhart-Harris, head of the Centre for Psychedelic Research at Imperial College London.

Carhart-Harris and his team noted they were not able to measure the long-term effects of psilocybin compared to escitalopram, which takes longer to start working and may not have reached its full therapeutic potential during the six-week trial.

The researchers kept the trial relatively short because some volunteers had to come off their current depression treatments to participate, which can be risky, Carhart-Harris noted. To look at longer-term effects, his team plans on collecting data from the participants at the six-month mark.

Some outside experts also pointed out limitations of the study: It did not include a control group of people who received no treatment, and the cohort was 66 percent men, though women in the real world are more likely to experience depression. It’s also difficult to make a study involving psychedelics truly blinded, since patients may be able to guess which group they are in based on if they experience noticeable effects of the higher dose of psilocybin.

But the findings do add to a growing body of research suggesting that psychedelic drugs could be used in a clinical setting to treat depression, and likely have lasting effects.

According to Alan Davis, an assistant professor of social work at Ohio State University and adjunct assistant professor of psychiatry at Johns Hopkins University, the new trial shows that there may be untapped depression treatments that could help people reach remission without daily medication –– and the cost and side effects that come with it. “To me, that represents a breakthrough,” he said.

More than 13 percent of American adults are prescribed antidepressants, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data show, and SSRIs are the most commonly prescribed class of the medication. However, scientists still don’t understand exactly how those medications — or psychedelics — work on symptoms of depression.

“The receptors SSRIs work on seem to inhibit responses in the brain, particularly stress responses, and we think that takes the edge off so you can tolerate stress better,” Carhart-Harris said. “With psychedelics, it’s almost the opposite. It’s almost like a brutal confrontation with the root of your suffering, which can allow people to better understand where their depression stems from.”

Griffiths, who has also conducted research on psilocybin and depression, said he was initially skeptical about what effect, if any, the drug would have on symptoms of depression. He expected to see a lot more variability in the outcomes of psilocybin research than there has been so far — most research has shown that psilocybin appears to have a positive effect on depressive symptoms in many of the trials in which it has been studied. Another small clinical trial published in November in JAMA Psychology, for example, found that more than 70 percent of participants reported their depression eased within the first week after taking two comparable doses of psilocybin and more than half were in remission within four weeks.

“People ask me what I believe and my answer is I believe in the data,” Griffiths said. “Psilocybin therapy is not going to be effective for everyone and we are still at a very early stage of understanding what populations will be the most sensitive to the treatment. But there is no question that there is something v

UAE Moon rover taps Japanese startup aiming to be the SpaceX of lunar landings

Chris Davies - Apr 14, 2021,

A new Moon rover project is in the works, with the UAE partnering with Japanese robotics company ispace on the Emirates Lunar Mission. Unlike NASA’s Perseverance and Curiosity rovers, which are currently on Mars, the Rashid rover that the Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre (MBRSC) has in mind for 2022 will be a lot more compact. It’ll also tap SpaceX for transportation.

The plan is to put the rover on a SpaceX Falcon 9, which will launch next year from Florida. Compared to the length of the trip to Mars, the journey itself will be a relatively short one – though ispace does point out that the launch may be delayed as it works on the rover technology – though that doesn’t mean Rashid will be retreading old ground.

Instead, the goal is to land the rover in an area of the lunar surface that hasn’t been explored fully before. It’ll have four wheels – rather than the six of NASA’s Mars rovers – and be significantly smaller than the SUV-scale Perseverance. All the same, ispace says, it should still be able to navigate across difficult terrain.

There’ll be 360-degree cameras for photos and video, and a set of different experiments to look at dust and soil on the Moon. In addition, ispace will also provide wired communication and power services via the Hakuto-R lunar lander during the cruise phase, and then wireless communication when on the lunar surface.



It’ll be part of what ispace has been calling Mission 1, or M1, set to be the first privately-led Japanese mission to land on the Moon. The company aims to reduce the cost of lunar exploration, including eventually using landers like the Hakuto-R to release fleets of robotic rovers. These will use swarm intelligence to interconnect, improving things like mapping and pooling the results of experiments and surveys. As a result, it’s aiming to dramatically lower the barrier to lunar exploration for governments and private companies.

Hakuto-R can also carry experiments and other equipment itself. The original M1 plan had been to perform a soft-landing on the Moon, and only release a rover in the second, M2 phase. That was scheduled to be launched in 2023.


If successful, it’ll follow only three nations to successfully land spacecraft on the Moon, with the US, Russia, and China all having run lunar programs of their own. NASA is currently readying its own return to the Moon as part of the Artemis project, aiming to deliver human astronauts to the lunar surface. Technology developed for Artemis is expected to go on to be used for future crewed missions to Mars, and potentially beyond.

UK

Lawyer’s video documenting Johnson repeatedly lying in parliament racks up 10 million views

Peter Stefanovic fact-checked the PM's claims about C02 emissions, economic growth and poverty among other things.
 

by Jack Peat
April 14, 2021
in Politics




A lawyer’s viral video documenting spurious claims made by Boris Johnson in parliament has surpassed 10 million views, he has revealed.

In August last year Peter Stefanovic compiled and uploaded a two-minute video in which he fact-checked several claims made by Johnson since he became prime minister.

These include the government’s record on emissions reductions, economic growth, nurses’ bursaries, hospital car parking, NHS spending, the Covid-19 track and trace app, and poverty in the UK.


Just over six months later, the video has been widely shared and Mr Stefanovic said it surpassed 10 million views on Tuesday.

5 Johnson claims debunked by Stefanovic

Stefanovic said the public had “sent a message to UK media that if they won’t hold this prime minister to account for all his lies we will damn well do it ourselves” after the video reached the landmark.

Here’s some of the spurious claims he fact-checked:

CO2 emissions

In the first example, the prime minister can be seen speaking back in late 2019 or early 2020 when Sajid Javid was still Chancellor.

Mr Johnson says: “We have cut CO2 emissions in this country since 2010 on 1990 levels by 42 per cent – that is an astonishing achievement.”


Mr Stefanovic then responds: “Well it would be if it were true, but it’s just another lie. CO2 emissions fell by 39 per cent between 1990 and 2018. Not from 2010 onwards.”
Economy has grown by 73 per cent

Johnson then goes onto claim that the economy, under this Conservative government, “has grown by 73 per cent,” which is also wrong.

As Mr Stefanovic points out, the official records do not back up Mr Johnson’s quite astonishing claim.

The economy has grown by roughly this level since 1990 according to the ONS, during which there have been Conservative and Labour governments and the Lib-Dem-Tory coalition government.

Under Conservative-led governments since 2010, the UK’s GDP has grown by around 20 per cent.

Nurses bursary

The next bare-faced lie was made in relation to nurses bursaries, which were apparently “restored” by the Conservatives, according to Johnson.

But this is not the case. The government introduced a small grant, which still leaves nurses saddled with huge amounts of debt. Their training was completely free up until 2017.

Hospital car parking

Johnson also said “there’ll be free hospital car parking for everyone who attends a hospital”, in parliament.

This plan was abandoned by Mr Johnson, reportedly at the health secretary, Matt Hancock’s, request.

Poverty

“Absolute poverty and relative poverty have both declined under this government, and there are 400,000 fewer families living in poverty now than there were in 2010,” Johnson claimed.

This claim from June 2020 caused outrage at the time.

According to official records the number of people living in relative poverty in the UK increased from 13.6 million in 2009-10 to 14.5 million in 2018-19.

But absolute poverty did decline over the same period by 100,000 to reach 12.9 million.

Climate change is making it harder to get a good cup of coffee

POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH (PIK)

Research News

 

Ethiopia may produce less specialty coffee and more rather bland tasting varieties in the future. This is the result of a new study by an international team of researchers that looked at the peculiar effects climate change has on Africa's largest coffee producing nation. Their results are relevant both for the country's millions of smallholder farmers, who earn more on specialty coffee than on ordinary coffee, as well as for baristas and coffee aficionados around the world.

"Climate change has conflicting impacts on coffee production in Ethiopia. The area that is suitable for average quality coffee might actually increase gradually until the 2090s, according to our computer simulations," says lead author Abel Chemura from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). "Yet more is not necessarily better. Because on the flipside, the suitable area for high quality specialty coffee types which are valued for their floral, fruity and spicy notes, will likely shrink if climate change continues unchecked. This is an issue not just for coffee lovers, but for local agricultural value creation."

The suitable areas for specialty coffee are shrinking

Under various scenarios the researchers looked at how a total of 19 climatic factors will affect the cultivation of five distinct specialty coffee types in the future, including mean temperature, annual rainfall levels, and seasonality. For example, if it gets warmer, the coffee cherry matures faster than the development of the bean, which in turn leads to coffee that is lower in quality. Increased rainfall, on the other hand, favors coffee production in general but may be not necessarily beneficial for individual specialty coffee types.

Thus, while the researchers project that the area suitable for four out of five specialty coffee types will decline, some are hit harder than others. For example, the renowned Yirgacheffe type, one of the world's oldest and most sought after coffee types cultivated in Ethiopia's southwest, under the worst case scenario, could lose more than 40% of its suitable area by the end of the 21st century.

A blow to Ethiopia's economy

This would not only affect coffee drinkers worldwide, especially those who grind their own beans or prefer sophisticated blends - it would also have consequences for Ethiopia's economy. "If one or more coffee regions lose their specialty status due to climate change this has potentially grave ramifications for the smallholder farmers in the region," says co-author Christoph Gornott from PIK and the University of Kassel, Germany. "If they were forced to switch to growing conventional, less palatable and bitter coffee types, they would all of the sudden compete with industrial production systems elsewhere that are more efficient. For the country, in which coffee exports account for roughly a third of all agricultural exports, this could prove fatal."

However, there may be ways to stop this trend. "As distinct specialty coffee types are strongly influenced by different local climatic, spatial and soil-related factors, what is needed are adaptation measures that are tailored to each specific region," adds Christoph Gornott. "Our study underscores the importance of localized adaptation planning and responses. We show how climate change has very concrete effects on the availability and taste of one of the world's most beloved beverages and, more importantly, on economic opportunities in local communities of the global South."

###

Article: Abel Chemura, Bester Mudereri, Amsalu Woldie Yalew & Christoph Gornott (2021): Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia. Scientific Reports. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-87647-4.

French winegrowers hit by rare frost brace for bleak harvest

Agence France-Presse
April 13, 2021

A picture shows frozen vines in the Luneau-Papin wine estate vineyard in Le Landreau, near Nantes, western France, on April 12, 2021, as temperatures fall below zero degrees celsius. © Sebastien Salom-Gomis, AFP

First came US taxes on French wines, then the pandemic and the dumping of gallons of unsold wine and champagne as France shutdown and alcohol consumption plummeted. Now winemakers and fruit growers are facing one of their bleakest harvests after a three-day agricultural disaster blanketed crops in frost. Though the government has pledged financial aid, many are staring down the barrel of financial ruin.

It took just three days, from the evening of April 5 until the morning of April 8, for a rare cold snap to plunge temperatures to unseasonal sub-zero levels, piling frost over vineyards and fruit crops across France in one of the worst episodes of its kind on record.

"It's a national phenomenon," said Jérôme Despey, secretary general of the FNSEA farming union and a winemaker from the southern Hérault region. "You can go back in history, there have been (freezing) episodes in 1991, 1997, 2003 but in my opinion it's beyond all of them."

Frost has always been the enemy of winegrowers but it was a combination of unseasonal and extreme temperatures that rendered this year such a disaster.

After an unusual heat in mid-March when temperatures peaked at around 26°C, and which caused vegetation to burst into bloom early, temperatures suddenly dropped to the vicinity of -5°C to -7°C, resulting in the decimation of budding crops. Whether in the north or south, France recorded exceptionally unseasonal temperatures. Low-temperature records for April were broken in the usually warm southern city of Nîmes, which reached -0.7°C, while in the northern city of Beauvais, the unseasonal heat in March saw its mercury rise to 25°C.

Every wine-producing area in France has been affected, from the Val-de-Loire to Provence, from Beaujolais to Corsica, from the Rhône Valley to Languedoc, and in the famed red wine regions of Bordeaux and Burgundy.

Only Alsace and large parts of Champagne and the Cognac region have been somewhat spared.

'Agricultural disaster'

As in so many other regions, there are winegrowers in Bordeaux who have had their entire vineyards destroyed.


"There will be winemakers here who will be financially ruined by this," Christophe Chateau, who represents winemakers and wine merchants in the Bordeaux region, said.

"We just don't know how many, yet."

In the Rhone Valley area, the head of the local wine producers' body, Philippe Pellaton, said that it would be "the smallest harvest of the last 40 years" with losses of 80-90 percent compared with a normal harvest.

Winemakers are "shattered, desperate", he said, with the famed Côte-Rôtie area particularly badly hit.

In Burgundy, which produces some of the finest white wines in the world, the head of the local producers' association estimated that "at least 50 percent" of the 2021 harvest had been lost.

Early estimates state that up to 80 percent of French vineyards have been affected. Farmers growing fruit and field crops, such as rapeseed, apples and apricots, are also facing gross losses.

Since France declared an "agricultural disaster" on April 8, Prime Minister Jean Castex has pledged "emergency relief" and the removal of caps on compensation for agricultural disasters. The government has also called on support from banks and insurers.

Winemakers and fruit growers met with the agriculture minister Monday to put forward their demands to help the industry navigate its way back to recovery. Aside from financial aid, they want repayments on bank loans to be suspended temporarily and improvements to insurance in a sector where only a third of winemakers are insured.

Weathering Trump's taxes, pandemic

But emergency relief cannot come fast enough, with recovery likely to be long and difficult. Before the frost hit, winegrowers had spent the last two years charting a rough course thanks to tax duties imposed by Donald Trump that reduced the flow of wine exports to a comparative trickle. By the last quarter of 2019, French wine exports to the United States plunged by almost a fifth.

Then came the Covid-19 pandemic. Bar and restaurant closures led to a drop in alcohol consumption with slower sales at one point leaving producers with no choice but to dump gallons of unsold bottles of champagne, beer and wine. Meanwhile, a halt to tourism due to lockdowns and international border closures have had a knock-on effect on the wine sector, which relies on dollars from tourists who visit French wineries in droves.

By January, however, French winemakers were talking up their prospects of a better year: Trump's ouster ended taxes on their wines and signs of an economic bounce in Asia and other markets augured well.

Chateau said there was a sense "we were getting through the bad times and things were going to be good again". Even with produce lost to the frost this year, winemakers could fall back on supplies stored in vast cellars from previous years' harvests, but many are concerned about their supplies for 2022 and even 2023. Severe damage to vines will make it even more difficult to recoup losses and for winemakers to rebound from the pandemic.

"If there is less wine, even if the price is high because of lower supplies, it is going to have an impact," Chateau said.

French wine and spirits exports in 2020 were valued at around €12 billion, reflecting a 14 percent decrease compared to 2019, according to the Federation of Exporters of French Wines and Spirits.

After seeing so many winemakers trying to protect their crops from the frost with fire, fans or even helicopters -- often in vain -- Chateau said he would like part of the government relief package allocated to innovative technologies to help wine-growers better adapt to climate changes. A growing number of technologies such as scanning devices are being used by growers to track nitrogen and sap flow and even check the health of vine wood.

Some, like Laetitia Allemand, whose vineyard is in the Hautes-Alpes are keeping to more traditional methods. She relied on an old vine, the Mollard, which flowers later in the year, and her grapes did not suffer from the frost. "No one was interested in this variety 10 or 20 years ago," she told Franceinfo, though the recent crisis could lead others to follow her example.

Chateau remains optimistic for the future of the wine industry. "We'll be strong enough to get through because of the strong culture of wine in France and its image overseas," he said. "But we'll have less [winegrowers] in years to come because many just won't get through this crisis, but those who do will be stronger."

 Snow chaos in Europe caused by melting sea-ice in the Arctic

UIT THE ARCTIC UNIVERSITY OF NORWAY

Research News

 

IMAGE: THE FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE'S OBSERVATION STATION USED IN THE STUDY, PALLAS NATIONAL PARK, ARCTIC FINLAND. view more 

CREDIT: JEFF WELKER

They are diligently stoking thousands of bonfires on the ground close to their crops, but the French winemakers are fighting a losing battle. An above-average warm spell at the end of March has been followed by days of extreme frost, destroying the vines with losses amounting to 90 percent above average. The image of the struggle may well be the most depressingly beautiful illustration of the complexities and unpredictability of global climate warming. It is also an agricultural disaster from Bordeaux to Champagne.

It is the loss of the Arctic sea-ice due to climate warming that has, somewhat paradoxically, been implicated with severe cold and snowy mid-latitude winters.

"Climate change doesn't always manifest in the most obvious ways. It's easy to extrapolate models to show that winters are getting warmer and to forecast a virtually snow-free future in Europe, but our most recent study shows that is too simplistic. We should beware of making broad sweeping statements about the impacts of climate change." Says professor Alun Hubbard from CAGE Center for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate at UiT The Arctic University of Norway.

Melting Arctic sea ice supplied 88% of the fresh snow

Hubbard is the co-author of a study in Nature Geoscience examining this counter-intuitive climatic paradox: A 50% reduction in Arctic sea-ice cover has increased open-water and winter evaporation to fuel more extreme snowfall further south across Europe.

The study, led by Dr. Hanna Bailey at the University of Oulu, Finland, has more specifically found that the long-term decline of Arctic sea-ice since the late 1970s had a direct connection to one specific weather event: "Beast from the East" - the February snowfall that brought large parts of the European continent to a halt in 2018, causing £1bn a day in losses.

Researchers discovered that atmospheric vapour traveling south from the Arctic carried a unique geochemical fingerprint, revealing that its source was the warm, open-water surface of the Barents Sea, part of the Arctic Ocean between Norway, Russia, and Svalbard. They found that during the "Beast from the East", open-water conditions in the Barents Sea supplied up to 88% of the corresponding fresh snow that fell over Europe.

Climate warming is lifting the lid off the Arctic Ocean

"What we're finding is that sea-ice is effectively a lid on the ocean. And with its long-term reduction across the Arctic, we're seeing increasing amounts of moisture enter the atmosphere during winter, which directly impacts our weather further south, causing extreme heavy snowfalls. It might seem counter-intuitive, but nature is complex and what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic." says Bailey.

When analyzing the long-term trends from 1979 onwards, researchers found that for every square meter of winter sea-ice lost from the Barents Sea, there was a corresponding 70 kg increase in the evaporation, moisture, and snow falling over Europe.

Their findings indicate that within the next 60 years, a predicted ice-free Barents Sea will likely become a significant source of increased winter precipitation - be it rain or snow - for Europe.

"This study illustrates that the abrupt changes being witnessed across the Arctic now, really are affecting the entire planet." says professor Hubbard.

CAPTION

Professor Alun Hubbard downloading information from an Automatic Weather Station in the Barents Sea.

CREDIT

Alun Hubbard

CAPTION

The Beast from the East on March 15, 2018, captured by Aqua MODIS satellite imagery. The parallel cloud bands ("cloud streets") streaking south across the Barents Sea indicate convection rolls of warm, moist air rising from the ice-free surface.

CREDIT

NASA

A potential fix to police violence is staring us in the face

John Stoehr, The Editorial Board
April 12, 2021

www.rawstory.com

Look, I'm no expert on, well, pretty much anything! But there is one thing I do know. There is one thing anyone can know if they are willing to see. It's that the people we all trust to keep the peace in this country aren't doing a good job of it. What's more, the people we entrust to keep the peace are often themselves responsible for the violence. It's getting to the point where I'm thinking it's a good idea to take away their guns.

This article was originally published at The Editorial Board

Yes, I know. Taking guns away from local law enforcement officials sounds crazy. But think about it. Is it any more absurd than what we are seeing right now? How many times does a Black man have to die at the hands of a police officer who is looking for a reason—any reason—to use legitimate force during a routine traffic stop? How many times does that have to happen before we start distrusting people with such power?

The crazy is worse than you think. After Daunte Wright, 20, was shot and killed Sunday by a cop in Brooklyn Center, Minnesota, the community was outraged. People started organizing. They started protesting outside the police station. They started demanding justice. Cops responded by arming themselves in riot gear and forming a thin line around the building as if civilization itself would collapse if it didn't hold

There's more. Not only did police come out ready for battle, the mayor ordered a curfew, which was just the excuse the "warriors" needed to start assaulting unarmed American citizens with tear gas and "pepper bombs" and other "non-lethal" weaponry that can tear human flesh and cause serious injury. And that made the people who were demanding justice even more pissed off, which in turn provided another excuse to these militarized agents of the state to commit what would otherwise be felonies.

And this is only the beginning of the crazy. At some point, it's nearly certain, the family of Daunte Wright will bring the city of Brooklyn Center to court, claiming damages of a certain dollar amount. While criminal juries almost never hold police officers criminally accountable, civil juries are far more likely to award civil damages. That costs the city money that cities usually do not have. So they sell debt to Wall Street. In order to repay Wall Street, cities must raise revenues, which means raising taxes on city residents, which include members of the family of Daunte Wright. Seriously, is taking cops' guns away more absurd than all of this? I don't think so.

If we're not going to take their guns away (and we won't), then we should take away some of the power we have given them. Why? Because no one should be trusted with that much power. Police departments across the country have become, in effect, small occupying armies unaccountable to the democratic will that can, and that do, extract tribute1 in the form of loan repayments from residents they claim to serve and protect. This isn't just institutional racism. It's institutional racism that neuters republican government. It's institutional racism that, in the end, puts every one of us in a cage.