PAKISTAN

Gwadar’s women
Maryam Zia Baloch

Published December 5, 2021 - 

The writer is a research analyst at the World Bank and a Fulbright alumna.

WHAT happened in Gwadar earlier this week was surprising for everyone in the country. Hundreds of women participated in the rally ‘Give Rights to Gwadar’, led by Maulana Hidayat-ur-Rehman of the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI). Never before have Baloch women come out in such huge numbers for any public movement or political party, anywhere in Balochistan. True, Baloch women have been at the forefront of the struggle for the recovery of Baloch missing persons since the last 10 years.

 But this was the first time that so many women stepped out of their homes to protest against the lack of basic necessities, including water and electricity in Gwadar, and to demand a ban on illegal trawling and the easing of the border trade with Iran.

Listening to the women addressing the crowd, one would not have been able to tell that they were out for the first time. They were eloquent, articulate and enraged about the problems that Gwadar residents are facing. They all knew who to address and what to ask for. Their voice did not shake even once, nor were they afraid to call out the Balochistan chief minister or Gwadar’s representatives in the national and provincial assemblies. A young girl spoke in English in an effort to convey her demands to Gwadar representative Senator Kahuda Babar in Islamabad, thinking that he might understand her better in English in case he had forgotten Balochi.

They were eloquent, articulate and enraged.

The women’s anger towards senators, MNAs, MPAs and the chief minister is legitimate. In the process of bringing in big development projects and mega infrastructure, as well as building cricket stadiums, the basic needs of Gwadar’s people have been ignored. Since the inception of CPEC, Gwadar has been in the limelight. The dream of the centre and the provincial government is to make Gwadar a future Singapore or Dubai. Unfortunately, as the maulana said, crystal meth is more readily available in this future Singapore than a Panadol in its hospitals.

Read: Why Maulana Hidayat-ur-Rehman has become such a prominent leader for residents of Gwadar

Gwadar residents are sick of the government’s fake promises of development, changed lives and better facilities. Fishermen are no longer allowed to fish freely. Illegal foreign trawlers are parked at three points in the sea: Haft-Talar in Pasni, Jazeera in Ormara and Kalmat between Pasni and Ormara. They see these trawlers catching fish, and even fish eggs, with better nets than their own. Besides endangering marine life, it threatens their centuries-old source of livelihood. But the government hasn’t done enough to remove their apprehensions. Finally, they have found a voice for themselves in the form of the JI maulana who himself comes from a fishing family and understands the woes of the fisherfolk.

Maulana Hidayat-ur-Rehman has made his protest inclusive by mobilising all ordinary people — men, women and children — across Makran Division. There seems to be vast support for the protest sit-in and a large crowd has gathered on Marine Drive since Nov 15. He understands the economic and social threat to the people of Gwadar well. That’s why he had also organised a rally where protesters dressed in shrouds to highlight that it is a matter of life and death for the people. A children’s rally further emphasised how everyone is affected by the unemployment crisis due to illegal trawling and the token system at the Pakistan-Iran border. The women’s rally was well organised, and enough space was given to the speakers on stage to air their grievances.

Women singing Habib Jalib’s Dastoor, and raising slogans against the current government and officials for harassing people at security check posts displayed enormous courage. Nobody could tell from their powerful speeches that they live within four walls, and had never been to a protest before. Not only did they know all the slogans that are raised in protests in urban Pakistan, they were also keen to not give up on their fundamental rights. Boldly, they challenged the provincial government on its recent black law banning protests on Balochistan’s highways. Rather than listening to the pressing demands of Gwadar’s people, the government has come up with a ridiculous and unconstitutional order to suppress the voice of the most marginalised segments.

The ongoing protest comprises genuine basic demands which the government can fulfil if it cares enough about the population. The main ones are to curb illegal trawling, remove security check posts, ease restrictions on the border trade with Iran by ending the token system, and provide basic facilities such as water, electricity, health and education. I would say that for such rudimentary demands, the people of a city that is believed to be a potential game changer for the entire country shouldn’t have to protest for two consecutive weeks. Now that the whole of Gwadar, especially its women, are determined to get their basic rights via this sit-in, the government must act immediately to fulfil their wishes.

Twitter: @MerryBaloch
Published in Dawn, December 5th, 2021

PAKISTAN
WHEN THE STUDENTS MARCH
Xari Jalil

Published December 5, 2021 

A sea of red flags can be seen at the Students’ Solidarity March in Lahore | M Arif/White Star

Students in 11 cities took to the streets during last week’s Students’ Solidarity March. After months of planning and organising, they were finally able to come together and voice their concerns. The fiery students have shouted these slogans before. But is anyone listening?

Asea of red flows along Lahore’s Mall Road. Red flags bob along with the marchers who have adorned themselves in red hats, shirts or coats. They stand out beautifully against the smog-ridden grey of the city’s overcast horizon, as if signifying their tumultuous anger against the bleak backdrop of the country’s situation.

One of the marchers is holding a placard. He stops on the side and grins for a photograph.

“Bhagat ki raah humari hai, Jang humari jaari hai [Bhagat’s path is ours, Our struggle continues],” his yellow placard says, remembering the revolutionary Bhagat Singh.

The students are rallying for the restoration of student unions this year, as they did last year. But they have other demands too.

“Free Ali Wazir,” some placards read. (The incarcerated MNA and Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement leader was granted bail in at least one case days after the march).

“Sohail Baloch aur Faseeh Baloch ko baazyaab karo [Recover Sohail Baloch and Faseeh Baloch],” other placards read, referring to the two Baloch Students Organisation (BSO) activists who were abducted a few weeks ago and are still missing. Despite promises by the government, they have not yet returned home. As a result, educational activities at Balochistan University have been suspended, yet again.

The students who have come out for the Students’ Solidarity March are angry and full of verve. They are ready to take on the world today, chanting slogans for their freedom and rights. This is their day and they won’t be pushed around by anybody.

The road to this day has been long and their frustrations have been mounting.

***



In August 2021 a study circle was disrupted at Punjab University (PU), a hub of student politics. The Taliban had recently taken over Afghanistan and the Progressive Students’ Collective (PSC), an offshoot of the Haqooq-i-Khalq Movement (HKM), had decided to hold a discussion on issues of human rights violations there.

But the Islami Jamiat-i-Talaba, a student group of the Jamaat-i-Islami, apparently did not like the idea, and a clash broke out. Rae Ali Aftab, the general secretary of the PSC was beaten up badly. He claims he was being dogged by the Jamiat ever since they learnt of the study circle.

Later, PSC members claimed that the Jamiat attacked them, but the religio-political party denied PSC’s version of events.

“The discussion was about the Taliban takeover of Kabul, and the Jamiat has been trying to force us to stop,” Aftab says, looking back at the incident. The clash apparently intensified because the PSC students stood their ground. Aftab claims that he and his friends were charged with sticks and he was left with several bruises all over his body.

A few days after the clash, members of the Pashtun Education Development Movement (PEDM) and PSC held a rally outside the Punjab Assembly. They alleged that the university management took no action against the students who had disrupted the study circle and physically intimidated student activists.

Tensions have been rising on campuses, with some students claiming they have been ‘picked up’ and intimidation tactics have been used against them to keep them from protesting and taking part in student politics.


The last few years have not been kind to students. From the passing of the controversial Single National Curriculum to the abductions of students, and from fee hikes to examination problems, students have been growing more and more restless.

In March 2021, students belonging to the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) region, who were studying at the Islamia University Bahawalpur, staged a sit-in outside the Punjab Governor House for around a week, demanding restoration of students’ scholarships and quotas. After military operations in the region destroyed the education infrastructure there, the Punjab government under Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif had promised reserved seats with quotas and scholarships for students from ex-Fata in all the public sector universities of Punjab. And while the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) promised to double these seats before they took office, when they came into power, the seats were cancelled altogether, because of “austerity measures”. The matter remains unresolved.

The above are just two incidents from this year alone. The last few years have not been kind to students. From the passing of the controversial Single National Curriculum to the abductions of students, and from fee hikes to examination problems, students have been growing more and more restless. Yet, the students say, the government’s response has been that of indifference.

On top of everything, religio-political groups on campuses have been getting more active and are showing more and more radical traits.

Now, after three previous marches, this year too, droves of students took to the streets to make their demands known. Getting them out on the streets was no easy task. It has taken dedicated work and organising on the ground.

MOBILISATION

Women wearing masks chant slogans at the march | M Arif/White Star


After this year’s march, held on November 26, many members of the PSC — the most prominent group in attendance and the organisers of the march — considered it a huge success. In Lahore, hundreds of young people, supported by civil society, lawyers and human rights activists, had rallied together to Charing Cross (Punjab Assembly).

“We have just recently inducted new members — around 700 of them — and from this one can just see the scale of the march,” says Muhammad Zubair Siddique, an activist and student at the National University of Modern Languages in Lahore. “We marched in 11 cities, including Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, D.I. Khan and Multan,” he proudly shares.

Dr Alia Haider, a prominent member of PSC’s mother party, the Huqooq-e-Khalq Movement (HKM), and a doctor who does volunteer work, says that students conduct study circles all year but, a couple of months before the march, their frequency increased to two to three study circles in a week. “Students from PU went to different institutions to talk to students,” Dr Haider says.

She says that students from HKM also went to working class areas to mobilise students. “Our motto is ‘Aurat, mazdoor, talaba, kisaan [women, labourers, students, farmers],’” she tells Eos. HKM has had drives and campaigns in areas such as Chungi Amar Sadhu and engaged families of factory workers there. “There are [only a few organisations] who talk about the issues faced by students or working class individuals,” Dr Haider says.

The connections these activists make are not just for the march. “They are there with us all year round,” she says.

This year’s march was the fourth Students’ Solidarity March. The first one was in 2018. The second took place in 2019, and was the biggest march so far, with students taking to the streets in 50 cities. The 2020 march was smaller, partly because of the Covid-19 threat, but still managed to cause a stir when activist Ammar Ali Jan and some others were almost arrested by the police for supposedly being a “potential danger to public peace, [and the] law and order situation.”

But even after three years, organising the march continues to be an uphill task every year. This year was no different. In fact, some students say there were added challenges in the lead-up to the march, which resulted in a comparatively lower number of students marching.

THE CHALLENGES OF COMING TOGETHER

PU students hold a study circle

Even as the Covid threat seemed relatively smaller this year, some felt the organisers were still unable to bring back the kind of numbers they had seen before. Aiman* a student who marched back in 2019 and was back this year too, felt disappointed this year.

“In the 2019 march there were many more students, actual students, who came,” she says. “This time, there were very few genuine students. Most of the people were those who are [no longer at] educational institutions, so these issues are not really their issues.”

As the march drew closer, Aiman could already see the organisers getting complacent, she says, adding that the organisers are divided into different groups, and it is difficult to bring them all together under one umbrella.

While not everyone agrees with Aiman’s assessment, they acknowledge that organising a march of this magnitude is challenging.

Salman Sikandar, another student activist, says that the biggest challenge during mobilisation was having a presence on social media — an area student activists have excelled at in the past. But while they may have lagged behind on that front this year, they were much more active on the ground, Sikandar says.

“We went inside metro buses and told students about the march,” he says. “We saw [students] sitting around in market places such as Anarkali, at Wahdat Road, at cafes inside Barkat market and even inside hostels, and then we went to talk to them,” he says, adding that this is why there were over a thousand students at the march in Lahore, by his estimation.

Sikandar says that, in the pre-Covid march in 2019, the gathering wasn’t completely organic. There was hype on social media, with content going viral and even trolls unintentionally helping spread the message. Then there was the novelty value. The media was more interested and calling the student activists. All this helped them get bigger numbers at the march.


Mahnoor believes that students must be decision-makers about their own issues. She proposes electing student representatives for the harassment committees. She also questions why the policy states that there should be at least one female on the committee. “Why one?” she asks.

Besides, when the students marched in 2019, Sikandar points out, there was a historic student protest happening in India as well. “We stood up in solidarity for them, and they for us. This was a huge reason.”

But while the media and the social media ‘trolls’ may have moved on, the students have continued the work on the ground. Sikandar says that this year too, students from the Pukhtoon Students Federation, the Peoples Students Federation, the Revolutionary Students’ Front, and the Jammu and Kashmir National Front, all took part in the march.

But having said all that, Sikandar does allude to disagreements within the organisers. “Sadly the left wing tendencies are that they do not support each other,” the student says. “We received a video of [former Prime Minister] Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, saying that he supported the march, but our own people kept condemning it.”

Sikandar also says that one criticism they hear is that the march is dominated by Punjab, especially Lahore. This isn’t necessarily untrue, he acknowledges, and he would completely understand if the criticism were coming from Baloch students. “But if I hear someone in Islamabad saying this, it is a bit much,” he says.

These disagreements are a part of student politics. And while the marchers may not see eye to eye on all matters, they were clear on why they were marching.

STUDENT UNIONS

A student activist spreads the word about the march at a cafe

If these students remember one thing about former Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s rule, it is that, in 2008, he stood up in the National Assembly and promised to reinstate student unions. But Gilani did not stay in power for long, having been slapped with corruption charges. All the other successive governments also promised to restore the unions. But, to this day, nothing has happened.

Banned back in the 1980s under Gen Ziaul Haq, student unions have remained defunct. In the meantime, wings of national political parties made their way into educational institutions, especially public colleges and universities, changing the concept of student politics into a ‘militant’ manifestation of these mainstream political parties. Violence on campus increased drastically as a result.

“The violence increased after the 1984 ban,” says Qaiser Javed, the President of the PSC. “Yes, there was violence, but why was there a blanket ban on unions? There is violence during the elections too, but no one says they should be banned.”

Javed says that the governments are actually scared of a new leadership emerging, that may be better than their politicians. He believes that they are scared of the power that students wield. “But unions are the need of the day,” he says, repeating a sentiment that was widely held at the march. “When the PML-N [Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz] came to power they did not restore the unions. Neither did the PPP [Pakistan Peoples Party] and nor did PTI.

“Imran Khan paints an image that he is all about human development and not infrastructure,” Javed says. Still in 2019, a 45 percent cut was imposed on the higher education budget and universities were told to generate their own budgets. “In the beginning we had hoped that something new would come out of the current government’s rule, but there is absolutely nothing that we, as the youth, can benefit from,” he adds.

“They were scared about the 1968 movement, when students made Ayub step down,” says Javed. “Then in 1988, Benazir Bhutto restored [student unions], but only for a short while. Now universities take an affidavit at admission that you will not take part in political activity. But even if you sit on campus it’s political. There is nothing that is apolitical. And our constitution allows us basic rights, such as freedom of assembly, or speech and expression.”

Javed says that after the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) ‘fiasco’, the government has no business telling students not to demand their rights.

Minister for Human Rights Shireen Mazari herself tweeted in support of the student march. She said that being someone who has taught for over 16 years, she has always supported student unions and maintained that the onus is on university authorities to ensure that the unions function according to the rules that have been laid out.

But students who feel like their demands fall on deaf ears are not convinced by the tweets. “If she supports us so much, then why are we being treated like this by the government?” asks a student, referring to what they see as indifference from the government on students’ issues.

OTHER DEMANDS

A volunteer hands out flyers to students

Another major demand besides the restoration of student unions, is that the Higher Education Council’s (HEC) law on forming harassment committees must be implemented more strictly and female students must be represented on the committees. The activists also asked that hostel students be supported with medical expenses, as the country continues battling Covid-19 and dengue. They also demanded that students be given concessions on transportation, which seems to be getting more expensive every day.

Finally, the students demanded that campuses in Sindh and Balochistan should be demilitarised. And abducted students must be released at once.

The students have marched with these demands earlier as well, but with little success.

“The government is not taking any of our demands and complaints seriously,” says student activist Siddique, lamenting the fact that the education budget is very limited.

“The government is not really interested in improving the education sector,” he says. Siddique points out that the fee hikes continue. And claims that even the limited seats given on the basis of provinces are given out because of nepotism, instead of merit.

He also believes that there is little interest in creating safer campuses where women would not get harassed. The harassers, especially if they are members of the faculty, appear to have impunity and no action is taken against them, he says.

HARASSMENT ON CAMPUS

A student activist speaks to other students in the lead-up to the march


Bushra Mahnoor, who is part of the Feminist Collective, has been fighting for the implementation of the 2018 HEC policy on forming anti-harassment committees at universities.

The issue has continued to persist and even some of the country’s biggest universities have had cases that became national talking points because of their mishandling.

Mahnoor points out that while the policy says that all educational institutions must make these committees, it does not highlight what the consequences would be for not following through.

“Unfortunately, the inquiry committee also has no representation of students,” she says, adding that if there were student representation, maybe the issues would be tackled better. “Teachers also don’t want to get involved, especially if a complaint against a colleague has come,” she points out.

Mahnoor believes that students must be decision-makers about their own issues. She proposes electing student representatives for the harassment committees. She also questions why the policy states that there should be at least one female on the committee. “Why one?” she asks. “It’s 2021, for God’s sake.”

Information regarding who should be called or contacted to report harassment should be very clearly communicated to everyone on campus, the students say. While some universities have taken the initiative to do this, most have lagged behind. Fatima* faced the consequences of this first hand.

When a boy passed sexual comments about Fatima, she did not know where to go and who to contact. She went to a senior of hers and showed her a video of how lewd the boy had been with her. This would happen in front of everyone and even the guard turned a blind eye to the harassment and ‘catcalling’, enabling the boy’s behaviour.

“I had no idea who to turn to,” she says. When she finally did and made a complaint, it bore no results and the boy was let off scot-free.

Dr Alia Haider says that the harassment issue is one big reason why parents do not send their girls to study. She refers to the case of Nimrita Amarta Maher Chandani, where it was found that the young woman had been sexually assaulted before she was murdered in her hostel in Larkana.

“There are many girls who don’t bother complaining or, even if they do, they are not heard,” Dr Haider says.

Mahnoor says that women are kept so apolitical by their families that, when they are approached to join in for a cause, they are hesitant. They are scared the college administration will throw them out. It could happen too, the way things are going, she says.

THE WAY FORWARD

Farooq Tariq, a senior labour leader says that campuses are reflections of society. They are not isolated bubbles. If it’s happening on campus, it’s happening outside in society too.

“The government is scared of students being allied,” he says. “They think that they can control the institutions better instead of organised students.” Tariq points out that if students are allowed to unionise, then demands will come forward. A strong believer in the power of the students, he says that those in power will have to make a budget, arrange better transport and give concessions. “And they don’t want this,” he tells Eos.

When Tariq was elected a president in PU, he remembers how powerful and important he felt. “We used to have a vibrant and intellectual atmosphere, with politics, discussions, programmes and critical thinking,” he says. “We had decision-making power. Today it’s all about anti-intellectualism.”

In order to make a change, we have to have a nationwide movement which can help with the revamping of the system, Tariq says. “Because, simply put, today students have had enough.”

The Students’ Solidarity March may be a start of such a movement. These politically-charged young men and women are only getting started.

*Name has been changed to protect identity

The writer is a journalist who reports on various issues from human rights to society and art. She tweets @xarijalil

Published in Dawn, EOS, December 5th, 2021

Wealthy nations starved the developing world of vaccines. Omicron shows the cost of this greed

We must do better. The Omicron variant illustrates that clearly the world can’t afford to wait any longer.

Deborah Gleeson

Updated 01 Dec, 2021 

We don’t yet know how dangerous the new Omicron variant of Sars-Cov-2 will turn out to be. Early evidence suggests it may be more transmissible than other variants, and the World Health Organisation has raised concerns about its potential to spark another global surge in infections.

If currently available vaccines continue to protect us from severe disease and death, which seems likely at this stage, vaccinated people in developed countries should be able to breathe a sigh of relief.

But with a yawning gap between vaccination rates in high- and low-income nations, Omicron could present a major problem for the world. It could cause a further wave of preventable disease and premature death in developing countries, and exacerbate poverty in parts of the world that are already struggling with the pandemic.

And unless governments take urgent action to correct these inequities, we risk the emergence of further variants, some of which may evade vaccines.
Inequities in access to Covid-19 vaccines

By the end of November, around 54.2% of the global population had received at least one Covid-19 vaccine dose. For low-income countries, however, the rate was just 5.8%.

The gap in vaccination coverage between high-income and upper-middle-income countries on one hand, and low-income countries on the other, is particularly stark.

Covid-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people, by income group. — From: Our World in Data.



Vaccination rates in Africa are particularly concerning. About 40 or so countries still have less than 10% of their populations fully vaccinated, the vast majority of which are in Africa.

Comparisons between highly vaccinated nations and those at the bottom, most of which are in Africa. — From: Our World in Data.



Experts have warned about the inequitable distribution of Covid-19 vaccines since the beginning of the pandemic, so why is there still a problem?
Failure of Covax to realise its promise

First, Covax, the global program for purchasing and distributing Covid-19 vaccines, has struggled to secure enough vaccine doses since its inception..

Nearly 100 low-income nations are relying on the program for vaccines. Covax was initially aiming to deliver 2 billion doses by the end of 2021, enough to vaccinate only the most high-risk groups in developing countries. However, its delivery forecast was wound back in September to only 1.425 billion doses by the end of the year.

And by the end of November, less than 576 million doses had actually been delivered.

Covid-19 vaccines donated to Covax. — From: Our World in Data.


This predictable failure is largely due to wealthy countries mopping up more than half of the first 7.5 billion vaccine doses developed through pre-purchase agreements, leaving only crumbs for Covax.

Chronic under-investment in Covax (in terms of both doses and funds), and further hoarding of vaccine doses in wealthy nations for boosters, have continued to starve Covax of supplies to distribute to those most in need.
Failure to deliver on promised vaccine donations

Wealthy countries have been shamed into making pledges to donate large numbers of doses to low- and middle-income countries. But few of these pledges have yet translated into vaccines in arms.

By October 25, more than 1.3 billion vaccine doses had been pledged, but only around 10% had been delivered.

Meanwhile, many high-income countries have ignored pleas from the WHO to hold off on providing booster vaccinations until the rest of the world catches up. Even after boosters have been administered, Médecins Sans Frontières estimates that ten high-income countries will be sitting on more than 870 million excess doses by the end of the year.

Take Australia as one example. It has pledged 60 million doses for developing countries in the Indo-Pacific region, but so far, less than 9.3 million have been delivered. None of these doses are slated for equitable distribution through Covax, however, and none are currently committed for Africa.

Meanwhile, the Australian government has invested more than A$8 billion (US$5.7 billion) in pre-purchase agreements for 280.8 million vaccine doses for Australians. This is equivalent to more than 10 doses per person.
Failure to agree on temporary changes to trade rules

Some wealthy countries have also continued to oppose a proposal to temporarily suspend trade rules that protect the monopolies of pharmaceutical companies on Covid-19 health products and technologies.

Initially proposed by India and South Africa in October 2020, the so-called TRIPS waiver would enable companies around the world to freely produce Covid-19 products and technologies without fear of litigation over possible infringements of intellectual property rights.

It is now co-sponsored by 63 countries and supported by well over 100 of the World Trade Organisation’s 164 member states. The US signalled its support for a waiver in May (limited to vaccines), but it hasn’t formally co-sponsored the proposal. The European Union, the UK and Switzerland continue to oppose it, with Germany a particularly staunch opponent.

The Trips waiver, if adopted in the form sponsored by the 63 countries, would cover all health products and technologies needed for preventing, treating and containing Covid-19, including vaccines, treatments, diagnostic tests, medical devices and personal protective equipment.

It would waive rules in the WTO’s Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (Trips) that apply to patents, undisclosed information (such as information submitted to regulatory agencies or protected as trade secrets), copyright and industrial designs. And it would last for at least three years from the date the waiver is adopted, and then be reviewed annually.

However, more than a year after the waiver was proposed, discussions at the WTO remain deadlocked.

The EU insists it will be sufficient to tweak existing provisions in the Trips Agreement that allow for compulsory licensing — exploitation of the subject matter of a patent without the permission of the patent holder. This, however, doesn’t cover undisclosed information, which is needed for manufacturing vaccines.

Many countries, including the UK, EU, China and Australia, are now supporting a separate proposal at the WTO which addresses other trade-related issues, such as export restrictions and customs procedures. However, it fails to lift the intellectual property rights that maintain monopolies on Covid-19 products.

To delay matters even further, the emergence of the Omicron variant has resulted in postponement of the WTO ministerial council meeting this week, where these proposals were to be discussed. While debate will continue in the Trips Council in December, momentum to reach a decision in the near-term may have been lost.

Urgent action is needed

Wealthy countries have hoarded vaccines, starved Covax of funds and doses, released promised donations at a slow dribble, and stalled agreement on a global agreement to lift barriers to wider manufacturing of vaccines in the developing world.

We must do better. The Omicron variant illustrates that clearly the world can’t afford to wait any longer.

This article was first published in The Conversation and has been reproduced with permission.


Deborah Gleeson is an Associate Professor in the School of Psychology and Public Health at La Trobe University. She teaches subjects with a health systems, health policy and public health focus.

The Analytical Angle: Can an effective local body system counter violent extremism and terrorism in Pakistan?

Decentralisation can serve as deterrence to terrorism and violent extremism in a society.

Javed Younas | Akbar Nasir Khan

Updated 2 days ago


There is a growing realisation even at the top leadership of the state that perhaps nothing else poses a bigger threat to the stability of Pakistan than violent extremism and terrorism. It has damaged the tolerant culture using self-proclaimed religious superiority by some to harm those who hold differing views or follow different faiths. Despite the fact that radicalism has been spreading widely in our society, we still have little understanding of what motivates people to engage in militancy. Who is more likely to join the extremist groups? Do financial hardships, victimisation, marginalisation, stress, or traumatic life events push individuals into extremist beliefs? How do militant groups succeed in attracting others to join their ranks? Can people change their minds and walk away from such violence-promoting elements? Can local communities engage residents in positive activities and counter polarising ideologies? All of these questions demand serious deliberation.

We try to explore whether a representative, autonomous local body system can reduce the risks of someone indulging in political violence, including terrorism. According to the existing research evidence for countries confronted with such threats, the answer is a resounding yes. Multiple channels appear to play a role. In contrast to central control, decentralisation empowers the representative local governments to exercise greater autonomy over their own affairs. It provides decision-making authority to the elected representatives, improves service delivery, addresses minority concerns, and prioritises fiscal allocations to more pressing needs. In essence, it serves as a catalyst to identify and address grievances and issues early on, before they spiral out of control. The built-in feedback mechanism through community engagement and inclusive governance facilitates peaceful resolutions of conflicts.

Before digging further into the topic at hand, it is worth noting that typically three methods are used for devolving authority to lower tiers of government. Deconcentration redistributes central power across many levels of government offices, ensuring that distinct bureaucracies are responsible for distinct tasks and duties. Delegation involves the transfer of powers, mainly administrative duties, to semi-autonomous public agencies or third parties like housing authorities, transportation and waste disposal services, to name a few. Decentralisation, however, constitutes a major devolution of administrative, fiscal, and legislative responsibilities to the representative bodies elected from and by the local constituents. The constituents can vote the elected bodies out of office if they feel unsatisfied with their performance. The fear of retribution fosters healthy competition among the competing candidates. Participatory governance can thereby promote work efficiency, reduce social divisions and promote mutual trust.

Let us take a relevant example to understand how local leadership through community participation may act as a vanguard in monitoring suspicious activities in their areas. The governments of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2014 and Punjab in 2015 enacted a law, requiring property owners and managers —whether a house, hotel, or hostel — to provide information about any new tenant to the local police station. The purpose of the law was to develop a database that could help with the investigation of any terrorist or criminal activities. Although the right step, its implementation faced several practical issues. First, hardly any awareness campaign was launched to raise public understanding of the law. Second, both the fear of falling into uninvited trouble and public distrust of the police, the property owners hesitated from reporting information about the renters. Third, already resource-crunched, it was impossible for the police to go door to door for seeking information about any tenants in the area. Therefore, in order to identify individuals who may embrace an extremist ideology or pose a threat of violence, it is important for the police to work with the local leadership under a formal legal framework.

The question now is why has a representative local body system failed to take roots in Pakistan. This is despite the fact that Article 140-A of the constitution clearly states that, "Each Province shall, by legislation, create a local government system and transfer political, administrative, and financial responsibility and power to the elected representatives of the local governments". Furthermore, the constitution mandates the Election Commission to hold local body elections, meaning that only elected representatives can form such a government. At times, we see the federal government running effective programmes to support provincial governments, such as battling the Covid-19 pandemic, disbursing funds through the Ehsaas programme, or combating aftermaths of any natural calamity with the help of the armed forces of Pakistan. While such efforts greatly help in dealing with large-scale crises, they cannot substitute for the service delivery matters or governance issues in districts, tehsils or union councils.

A detailed study by Cheema, Khwaja and Qadir (2006), titled, “Local government reforms in Pakistan: context, content and causes”, examines why the local body system has been ineffective. They argue that to understand the current state of decentralisation in Pakistan, one must first comprehend its historical context. The British established local governments in India not by building on the traditional panchayat system and empowering locals, but by setting up a powerful, nominated office of Deputy Commissioner (DC) in districts. This colonial legacy continued post-independence, where the military regimes had been proactive in enacting local government reforms, while political governments either undermined or ignored these reforms. Because of the weak local body system and centrally controlled DCs, the power focus shifted towards maximising parliamentary seats in the federal and provincial assemblies to form a government. Moreover, the rivalry between the provincial and local governments over constituency politics did not bode well for the implementation of the decentralisation programme. Therefore, controlling districts through nominated and pliable bureaucracy became politically expedient for the ruling elites, whether military or civilian.

Albeit, the "Devolution of Power" plan of General Pervaiz Musharraf, launched in January 2000 and implemented following a series of local government elections, is widely regarded as the most radical decentralisation reforms effort in Pakistan. It restructured the sub-provincial government significantly by delegating the administrative and expenditures responsibilities to the elected local bodies. The newly formed office of District Coordination Officer (DCO), formerly DC, now reported to the elected head of the local government. Furthermore, DCO also could no longer exercise the executive magistracy and revenue collection powers of the old DC system. While most public service delivery matters came under the purview of the local governments, their ability to raise revenue remained limited with a heavy dependence on funds on the discretion of the central or provincial governments. Clearly, as with any other system, a solid foundation of the local government system needed further structural changes in order to be truly independent and autonomous. Yet, this devolution plan made the local government system both effective and responsive to local needs. However, following the waning power of Musharraf after 2007, this system started to lose its ground. Unnecessary delays in the approval and disbursement of funds for projects planned by the local governments hindered their ability to serve the people at the grassroots level.

Nearly all data sources on terrorism show that after 1990 the incidents of both domestic and transnational terrorism were lowest during the period 2000-2007 in Pakistan. Figures 1 and 2 on the trends in number of overall terrorist incidents in Pakistan as well as in its provinces confirm this fact (data for these graphs come from the Global Terrorism Database). Despite its other flaws, this period is recognised as the best era for decentralisation in the country, where the local governments enjoyed substantial budgetary, administrative, and political control. While correlation does not imply causation, research evidence from a panel of countries supports the terrorism-mitigating effect of decentralisation.









Decentralisation can serve as deterrence to terrorism and violent extremism in a society. On one hand, communities acting as watchdogs make it more difficult for someone to engage in organised violence. On the other hand, alternative work opportunities, generated by improved governance and market incentives, yield greater financial rewards. The bottom line is that unless we make structural changes to the way we govern ourselves, we may just continue to stumble from one tragedy to another, whether caused by internal or external forces.

The Analytical Angle is a monthly column where top researchers bring rigorous evidence to policy debates in Pakistan. The series is a collaboration between the Centre for Economic Research in Pakistan and Dawn.com. The views expressed are the authors’ alone.


Dr Javed Younas is a Professor of Economics at American University of Sharjah and a Research Fellow at Centre for Economic Research in Pakistan. Currently, he is spending his sabbatical leave for working on projects at Syracuse University and with the World Bank. His professional information can be found at https://sites.google.com/site/javedyounas

Dr Akbar Nasir Khan is a graduate of Harvard Kennedy School and he is currently working as DG NACTA Monitoring, Evaluation and Capacity Building. His earlier work includes National Internal Security Policy of Pakistan and Establishment of Punjab Safe Cities Authority in Punjab. He tweets at @akbarnasirkhan

 

Air bubbles sound climate change's impact on glaciers

by Acoustical Society of America

Credit: Johnson, Vishnu, and Deane

As the world's temperatures rise, tidewater glaciers are receding and melting, releasing air trapped in the ice. Scientists can listen to the release of the air and potentially use the sounds to help them gauge the impact of climate change on the ice floes.

During the 181st Meeting of the Acoustical Society of America, which will be held Nov. 29-Dec. 3, Hayden Johnson, from the University of California, San Diego, will discuss how sound can be used to estimate glacial melting induced by climate change. The talk, "Spatial variation in acoustic field due to submarine melting in glacial bays," will take place Friday, Dec. 3.

Hari Vishnu, from the National University of Singapore, Grant Deane, from the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, and their research team investigated glacial ice melting that releases acoustically distinct pressurized underwater bubbles.

Air trapped with ice below the glacier surface becomes a compressed bubble-ice mixture that builds pressure during the long passage to the glacier terminus. The glacier ice holds ancient bubbles of air that can be up to 20 atmospheres of pressure and generate detectable sounds when they are released as the ice melts.

"We observed that the intensity of the sound generated by a melting terminus tends to increase as the water temperature increases," said Deane. "This makes sense, because we expect the terminus to melt faster in warmer water, releasing bubbles more rapidly into the ocean and generating more sound."

The team found as the recording array was moved further from the glacier, the variation in the acoustic melting did not follow a uniform trend.

Moreover, the acoustic intensities at different glaciers clustered in different levels. These observations indicate that the geometry of the glacier-ocean interface, the temperature and salt composition of the underwater sound channels, and the presence of floating ice impact the recorded acoustic measurements.

Their experiments will permit the monitoring of climate change's impact on glaciers.

"Recording the underwater sounds from a melting terminus will open the door to long-term acoustical monitoring of ice loss, and how it is linked to water temperature," said Deane. "The endgame here is to establish long-term recording stations for underwater sound around glaciers such as those in Greenland and Svalbard, to monitor their stability over time."Ice loss accelerating in Greenland's coastal glaciers, study finds

More information: acousticalsociety.org/asa-meetings/ 

Provided by Acoustical Society of America 

Amazon is now the world's largest buyer of renewable energy


By Mike Moore last updated 4 days ago

274 renewable energy projects will get Amazon backing in major green push

(Image credit: Ken Wolter/Shutterstock)

Amazon has revealed a significant investment in renewable energy projects around the world as it looks to make AWS the greenest cloud option for customers.

At its AWS re:Invent 2021 conference in Las Vegas, the company announced 18 new utility-scale wind and solar energy projects across the US, Finland, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK.

The news, which makes Amazon the largest corporate buyer of renewable energy in the world, means AWS's renewable energy capacity will now total more than 12 GW and 33,700 gigawatt hours (GWh) when the current projects are fully realized - enough to power more than three million US homes for a year.

Going green

The announcement also means Amazon now operates 274 renewable energy projects globally, and is well on track to its goal of being able to power 100% of its business operations with renewable energy by 2025 - which itself is five years earlier than its original aim of 2030.

“We are moving quickly and deliberately to reduce our carbon emissions and address the climate crisis,” said Kara Hurst, vice president of worldwide sustainability at Amazon. “Significant investments in renewable energy globally are an important step in delivering on The Climate Pledge, our commitment to reach net-zero carbon by 2040, 10 years ahead of the Paris Agreement. Renewable energy projects also bring new investment, green jobs, and advance the decarbonization of the electricity systems in communities around the world.”

The new projects, which includes a third solar project in Italy, alongside a new wind project in Northern Ireland and four new solar projects in Spain, means Amazon has added 5.6 gigawatts (GW) of procured capacity to date in 2021.

In its home country of the US, Amazon has added eight new projects, including its first solar projects in Arizona and Georgia, and additional projects in Ohio, Texas, and Virginia.

The company's 274 global projects now include 105 utility-scale wind and solar projects and 169 solar rooftops on facilities and stores.

Ontario Teachers' buys stake in U.S. renewable energy portfolio

The Canadian Press

TORONTO -- Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board says it has signed a deal with a subsidiary of NextEra Energy Inc. to buy a 50 per cent stake in a portfolio of 13 wind, solar and energy storage assets in the U.S. for US$849 million.

The pension fund manager has also committed to buy at least a 25 per cent interest in a US$824-million convertible equity portfolio financing announced by NextEra Energy in October.

NextEra Energy manages and owns contracted clean energy projects.

Chris Ireland, managing director, greenfield and renewables at Ontario Teachers', says the investment marks the beginning of what is expected to be a long-term partnership with the company.

The deal is expected to close later this year or in early 2022, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

The pension fund manager committed earlier this year to having net-zero greenhouse gas emissions across its portfolio by 2050.

China’s Sinopec banks on green hydrogen with Xinjiang solar-powered plant

The country’s largest oil refiner says it has started building the world’s largest facility of its kind, with production to start in 2023

The US$470 million project is expected to have an annual output capacity of more than 10,000 tonnes


Echo Xie
Published: 1 Dec, 2021

China’s largest oil refiner Sinopec has started work on the country’s largest solar-powered green hydrogen plant. Photo: EPA-EFE

China’s largest oil refiner China Petrochemical Corporation – also known as Sinopec – has started building the world’s largest green hydrogen plant, to be entirely powered by solar energy.

Sinopec said on Tuesday the 3 billion yuan (US$470 million) plant in Kuqa, in the far western region of Xinjiang, was expected to start production in June 2023, with a 20,000 tonnes-per-year capacity.

According to the company, it will be China’s first photovoltaic-powered hydrogen plant with an annual output capacity of more than 10,000 tonnes, as well as the world’s largest.

Sinopec urges Hong Kong government to kick-start hydrogen-fuelled transport
4 Oct 2021


Hydrogen, a highly reactive gas, has many industrial uses, including as a source of energy. China, which produces the world’s largest amount of it, mainly uses it as an industrial raw material – for example, to manufacture plastics or chemicals

Most of the country’s hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels, with just 4 per cent coming from renewable sources.

Green hydrogen – produced from renewable sources such as solar and wind energy – has significantly lower carbon emissions than grey hydrogen, which is produced using fossil fuels such as natural gas.

Sinopec’s demonstration project will go through the whole process of green hydrogen production and utilisation, including photovoltaic power generation, transformation, electrolytic hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, transport and refining.

The company will build a solar power station with an installed capacity of 300 megawatts to support hydrogen production. It will also build a hydrogen production plant from water electrolysis, hydrogen storage tanks and a hydrogen pipeline.

The plant will supply Sinopec’s oil refinery in Tahe, Xinjiang, replacing its current natural gas-based hydrogen production, saving an expected 485,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year.


Two sessions: How China's environmental policies are giving a boost to green industries

Sinopec chairman Ma Yongsheng said the project would give full play to Xinjiang’s resource advantages and was a key project for the company’s ambitions to be the country’s No 1 hydrogen producer, according to party mouthpiece People’s Daily.

Han Xiaoping, a chief analyst at energy industry website china5e.com, said low land costs and high solar power generation efficiency in Xinjiang would reduce the overall cost of the Sinopec project.

And, while the cost of green hydrogen is relatively high compared to fossil-based hydrogen, intermediate transport costs would be reduced by supplying a local refinery, he said.

“Xinjiang has a strong chemical production capacity … The economics should be relatively acceptable.”

US-China rivalry ‘threatens further action on climate change’
11 Nov 2021


Sinopec is China’s largest hydrogen producer with a capacity of 3.9 million tonnes per year, accounting for 11 per cent of China’s total production. It aims to build 1,000 hydrogen refuelling stations during the 14th five-year plan period to 2025.

The company has three more green hydrogen production projects in the pipeline, including two in the northern region of Inner Mongolia and an offshore wind-based facility in the southeastern province of Fujian.

Careful planning to reduce risks for China on road to carbon net zero
25 Oct 2021



The adoption of low-carbon hydrogen will play a key role in China’s path towards carbon neutrality. According to a report by the China Hydrogen Alliance in May, the proportion of hydrogen energy in the country’s energy mix is expected to increase from about 3 per cent in 2018 to 20 per cent in 2060.

Already, 23 provinces and municipalities have issued plans and guidelines to develop their hydrogen industry. China is expected to release a mid- and long-term national plan for the sector after discussion, Shanghai Securities News said on Monday.

Goldman Sachs-backed ReNew Power joins India's big-name dash to green hydrogen

Developer links with conglomerate L&T to advance renewable H2 opportunities in market already focus of fellow giants


Sumant Sinha, CEO of ReNew Power.Photo: ReNew Power

ReNew Power became the latest Indian heavyweight to unveil big plans in green hydrogen as it linked with engineering and construction giant Larsen & Toubro (L&T) to advance projects in the sector.

Goldman Sachs-backed ReNew in a statement said the two will jointly own, develop and operate projects as their part in what they expect to be a total $60bn investment in Indian renewable H2 infrastructure by 2030 to meet demand of 2 million tonnes per annum by then.


Asia's richest man to build gigafactory to mass-produce Stiesdal’s new low-cost hydrogen electrolyserRead more

ReNew – which has more than 6GW of wind and solar operating and a 3.8GW committed pipeline – said it is already studying specific opportunities with L&T, one of India’s largest E&C groups.

The two were quoted in the Indian media saying they expect to see a $2bn market opportunity in green H2 in as little as two years.

ReNew CEO Sumant Sinha said: “Green hydrogen will be a key driver of the transition to cleaner sources of energy and this partnership between ReNew and L&T, will allow both companies to pool their knowledge, expertise and resources to take maximum advantage of this transition. I expect this partnership to set new benchmarks in the Indian renewable energy space.”


Modi pledges massive green hydrogen 'quantum leap' to Indian energy independenceRead more

The pair become the latest big names to pledge major expansion of green H2 in India, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi made the fuel a key plank of the nation’s energy transition strategy in a speech earlier this year when he said it could help secure “energy independence”.

Also active are Reliance Industries led by billionaire chairman Mukesh Ambani and fellow tycoon Gautam Adani, who said his Adani Group conglomerate will spend $70bn to amass a 45GW renewable energy portfolio by 2030 and produce the world’s cheapest green hydrogen.(Copyright)

L&T and ReNew join hands to tap green hydrogen business

The companies have signed an agreement to tap into the $60 billion emerging green hydrogen market in India.2 min read .

 Updated: 03 Dec 2021

Kalpana Pathak

The firms are targeting a business potential of $2 billion from India, neighbours in two years

MUMBAI : Construction major Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and leading renewable energy company ReNew Power (ReNew) on Thursday signed an agreement to tap the $60 billion emerging green hydrogen market in India.

The companies are targeting a business potential of $2 billion from the segment in India and neighbouring countries in two years.

“The partnership brings together the track record of L&T in designing, executing and delivering EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) projects and the expertise of ReNew in developing utility-scale renewable energy projects," said S.N. Subrahmanyan, chief executive officer (CEO) and managing director of L&T.

Green hydrogen is produced by a process that does not emit any greenhouse gases. Efforts are on globally to make green hydrogen the fuel that can help countries attain their net-zero emission targets.

It is anticipated that the green hydrogen demand in India for applications such as refineries, fertilizers, and city gas grids will grow to 2 million tonnes per annum by 2030 in line with the nation’s green hydrogen mission. This would call for investments upward of $60 billion.

A number of opportunities are available in the green hydrogen segment and the partnership will not be constrained by capital availability, said Sumant Sinha, chairman and CEO at Gurugram-based ReNew. “For each opportunity that comes up, we will essentially put together a specific entity that will go ahead and pay for that particular project," said Sinha. He added that the companies will pool all their resources and put in a bid.

Many countries, including India, have announced specific policy interventions to push for widespread adoption of green hydrogen.

For India, with its ever-increasing energy import bill, it can also provide energy security by reducing the dependence on fossil fuels.

The estimated cost of setting up a 500-megawatt hydrogen plant would be about a billion dollars, 70% of which typically goes into setting up renewable energy capacity, and 30% into electrolyzers. Subramanian Sarma, whole-time director and senior executive vice president (energy), L&T, said the companies are already exploring opportunities in the Indian market for green hydrogen. “We believe that in maybe two to three years’ time we should be having something like a $2 billion of a business building up, but it can accelerate quite quickly depending upon how the market works," he said.

“We will see more such partnerships as the market is huge and with all companies announcing net zero ambitions, green hydrogen will help them achieve that," said a senior renewable energy official from an advisory company

Fact-check: Do China and India's per capita carbon dioxide emissions outpace the U.S.?

Becca Schimmel, PolitiFact.com
Sat, December 4, 2021, 

Viral Facebook post: Are China and India wildly outpacing the U.S. and other countries on carbon dioxide emissions?

PolitiFact's ruling: Half True

Here's why: Are China and India wildly outpacing the U.S., United Kingdom, Germany and Japan on emissions of carbon dioxide? A chart shared on Facebook shows a staggering increase in carbon dioxide emissions in China and India since 1990, while showing declines for the U.S. and other developed countries over the same time.

On Facebook, a user sharing the chart asked: "Why are we weakening our economy?" They cited the New York Post as the source.

It’s important to know what the chart shows, and what it doesn’t.

This is the image from the Facebook post, which originated from an Oct. 28 New York Post opinion article. The graph obscures that the U.S., U.K., Japan and Germany already had high levels of carbon dioxide emission prior to 1990.

While the headline on the graphic says "Per capita CO2 emissions," what the lines on the chart show is the percentage change in CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2019 for China, India, Japan, the U.S., Germany and the United Kingdom.

It appeared alongside an Oct. 26 opinion article in the New York Post headlined "Why destroy our economy to cut emissions — when China and India are spewing away?" The piece ran ahead of the international climate change conference of world leaders in Glasgow, Scotland, called COP26.

The opinion article, written by Eddie Scarry, sourced the data in the chart from Our World in Data, a project of Oxford University. So we asked Hannah Ritchie, a senior researcher for Our World in Data, to tell us more about it.

Ritchie offered a simple explanation: Because China and India had very low levels of per capita emissions in 1990, when their economies were far less developed, their emissions have grown a lot since then. Readers wouldn’t know it from this graphic, but the U.S., U.K., Germany and Japan already had high levels of emissions, which didn’t change very much over the same period.

A different way of looking at the data provides more context.

Our World in Data provided a similar chart looking at per capita CO2 emissions for the same countries and time periods. The difference in this chart is that it shows not the percentage change, but rather the actual change in per capita emissions over time, measured in tons. This version of how the data is presented shows the U.S. and Japan leading in per capita CO2 emissions.

The difference in charts from Our World in Data depends on whether the "relative change" option was selected. Checking this box shows the percentage change over time and makes it appear as though China and India are leading in CO2 emissions compared with other developed nations.

The Facebook post is missing context because it shows the change in emissions per person, but not the actual emissions.

The United States is responsible for the largest share of historical emissions with about 509 gigatons of carbon dioxide released since 1850. China has the second-largest share of historical emissions with more than 284 gigatons. Simon Evans, deputy editor for Carbon Brief, analyzed why cumulative CO2 emissions matter in an Oct. 5, 2021, article. He wrote:

"There is a direct, linear relationship between the total amount of CO2 released by human activity and the level of warming at the Earth’s surface. Moreover, the timing of a ton of CO2 being emitted has only a limited impact on the amount of warming it will ultimately cause.

"This means CO2 emissions from hundreds of years ago continue to contribute to the heating of the planet — and current warming is determined by the cumulative total of CO2 emissions over time."

Our ruling

A Facebook post shows China and India leading in per capita CO2 emissions compared to the U.S., U.K., Germany and Japan between 1990 and 2019.

The chart is missing some context, and the headline is misleading. When looking at the percentage change in per capita CO2 emissions from 1990-2019, China and India have seen the largest increases. Both countries had relatively low emissions in 1990, and they have grown a lot since then. The U.S., U.K., Germany and Japan already had high levels of emissions in 1990, and they have remained at high levels, with the U.S. leading the pack.

We rate this claim Half True.

The post was flagged as part of Facebook’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed.

Sources
Facebook post, Oct. 28, 2021

New York Post, "Why destroy our economy to cut emissions — when China and India are spewing away?" Oct. 26, 2021

Our World in Data, "CO2 emissions," last accessed Nov. 16, 2021

Our World in Data, "CO2 data explorer," last accessed Nov. 16, 2021

Carbon Brief, "Analysis: Which countries are historically responsible for climate change?," Oct. 5, 2021

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Facebook post misleads on China's, India's carbon dioxide emissions

BP's CEO Is Trying to Convince the World He's Serious About Going Green

Vivienne Walt
Sun, December 5, 2021

BP Plc CEO Bernard Looney Sets Out His Vision

Bernard Looney, chief executive officer of BP Plc, on Feb. 12, 2020. 

Credit - Hollie Adams—Bloomberg/Getty Images

Nothing in Bernard Looney’s youth suggested that he would find himself, at 50, leading one of the world’s biggest oil giants at the most tumultuous moment in its history. The CEO of the 112-year-old British company was raised in relative poverty on a farm in rural Ireland, and joined BP straight out of college 30 years ago. Then he rose through the ranks, and nailed the top job in February 2020.

Now he says he is determined to remake BP entirely. Just weeks after becoming chief exec. last year, Looney announced the company would cut its oil and gas production by 40% by the end of this decade, plow billions into solar, wind and other renewables, and roll out electric-vehicle charging points at its convenience stations worldwide. By 2050, he says, BP will zero out its polluting carbon emissions—a whopping 415 million metric tons a year in 2019.

Climate activists are deeply skeptical, fearing Looney is tinkering at the edges, and claiming big loopholes in his plan; they hear echoes of BP’s failed attempt in the 1990s to ramp up clean energy, when it dropped its old name British Petroleum. Such skepticism was underlined in October, when the organizers of the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow rebuffed requests of BP and other oil companies to formally join the massive confab of governments, businesses, and climate activists. BP’s plans, they said, did not match the climate goals.

Looney says he understands the doubts, but insists he is “all in,” to use one of his favorite phrases. On November 22, he sat down with TIME in his sleek executive offices on London’s St. James’s Square, to explain the reach—and limitations—of his strategy, and to describe the immense complexity in resetting the company’s direction after a century of putting carbon into the atmosphere.

(This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.)
Some might say it’s an unenviable job leading a Big Oil company now. You’re the villain in the climate debate.

We must change. We have to lean into the transition. We must give society what it wants and needs, and that is clean, reliable, affordable energy, and to do that, we have to change. And of course, we want to change and we want to change because our employees are part of society too. They have children, they have neighbors, they have friends. They want to make a difference in the world. And we also believe in this. And it’s an enormous business opportunity for us, because trillions of dollars are going to get spent rewiring and replacing the Earth’s energy system. So yes, it is complex. Yes, there are times when it is hard. But tell me something in life that was worthwhile, that was neither complex nor hard.
People are skeptical that you are actually for real.

We understand why people feel like that. They see us as part of the problem, not part of the solution. I believe that we are and will be and need to be part of the solution. I would go further and say that if BP doesn’t transition, the world won’t transition.

Energy is where the emissions are. Tesla sells close to a million cars a year today. The world needs 70 million cars a year. Toyota, Volkswagen, Renault-Nissan: They make 30 million cars a year. When they go electric, the world goes electric. When companies and sectors like BP start to transition, the world will transition. You just cannot scale and build enough green companies fast enough at the pace enough to make the difference.
Even so, climate activists say that word “ambition” is a fuzzy word. It’s not a real commitment.

Any objective person would struggle to say we are not all in on this. We took the painful decision to cut our dividend in half last year. We wrote off over $20 billion worth of assets last year that we said neither should be produced nor could be produced. We took the difficult decision to have 10,000 people leave the organization. We are reallocating capital. We are increasing our spend. We are the only company who said that they’re going to reduce their production of oil and gas.

We’re not doing this to window dress and we’re not greenwashing. We’re trying to do what is the right thing for our company, for its stakeholders and importantly, for its shareholders.
Environmentalists say that’s all very well, but this does not include, for example, your joint venture with [Russian oil giant] Rosneft, which is a considerable amount of BP’s production—something like a third, I believe.

It’s about a million barrels a day, about a third. We’ve been absolutely transparent. We said we will reduce our production by 40%. If you include Russia, it’s 28%—still a huge amount. It’s not like we control Rosneft. We’re a 20% shareholder. You would you be surprised to hear that Rosneft’s greenhouse gas intensity per barrel of oil is lower than BP’s. They have a plan to eliminate routine flaring. They’re reducing emissions as we speak.

The question is, is the world better off by BP being there or not? It’s the same argument I would use for an investor: An investor has a choice to divest from BP or invest in BP. Some people feel that they should divest, they feel that’s the right thing for the world.
I think many people feel they should divest. BP is hardly alone in this. Many people, many funds, endowments, are basically getting out of fossil fuel companies. How worrying is that for you?

I can assure you that is not the right thing. Our shareholders own our company. We listen to our shareholders. The way to bring about change is to invest and make your views known. We need people to back the agenda that we’re on.

A transition like this is going to be messy, it’s going to be complex. It does not lend itself to a simple, ‘Who’s good, who’s bad? Who’s green, who’s not?’ There is no simple solution here. The best thing you can do for climate is to invest in a carbon-intensive company like BP and back them going green. We’re going to reduce our emissions by between 35% and 40% by 2030. We’re going to invest 10 times more in low carbon than we do today by 2030, eight times by 2025. We’re going to install 70,000 charging points for electrification. We have the scale and the resources and the cash flows and the skills to do that.
But you are also in the next several years adding barrels. If I read the the third-quarter results correctly, there has been an increase in production. I read that you have added 900,000 barrels a day.

Yes, between 2016 and 2021, five years. We brought on seven projects this year, and we will bring on projects next year, and the year after. We will start up new oil fields and we will invest in new oil fields, but only the ones that have the best carbon intensity, only the ones that have the best economics, the shortest paybacks, the highest returns. But we will do that because we have a three-part strategy: Part one is resilient hydrocarbons. Part number two is convenience and mobility. Part three is low carbon energy.

So part one of our strategy is hydrocarbons and will be for decades to come. We’re not shying away from that. Any scenario has oil and gas in the system in 2050. Our job is to produce those hydrocarbons with the lowest possible emissions. Oil and gas will continue to be needed. People may not like to hear that. It may be an unpopular truth. We will do that and we will use those cash flows to help us make the transition.

We will continue very clearly to sanction and develop new oilfields. The existing oil fields decline, and some of them decline very quickly. So net-net our production goes down by 40% through this decade: 20% by 2025, 40% by 2030.
The International Energy Agency projects something like 20 million barrels of oil a day global consumption by 2050. That’s a fraction of current demand.

Yes, 80% less. Very, very much smaller. We’ve projected [BP’s production will be] 1.5 million barrels a day by 2030, down from 2.6 million today. Our focus is on is developing reserves on two criteria: How do we produce barrels with the lowest possible environmental footprint? Number two: What produces the best returns. We will invest in only the best because less barrels will meet those investment thresholds.
Does this mean that from your reserves of 18 billion barrels of oil equivalent, a chunk of that will never be touched, that it will remain in the ground?

We’ve said things like we are no longer going to explore into new basins for exploration, right? We are no longer going to enter a new country to find the next giant oilfield.
But, for example, you are in Norway. So you are going to explore new oil prospects in Norway, correct?

We have a joint venture in Norway, and they will develop new oil fields. And BP will explore for oil in the Gulf of Mexico, where we have existing infrastructure: It’s been growing and it will grow. It was a great success story for America and the world, and we believe we can grow it over the next three to four years.

But that doesn’t mean that the overall picture doesn’t decline. That’s what we mean by “high grading.” We will develop the best barrels, will make the portfolio higher value.
How much of your overall greenhouse gas emissions targets will rely on things like carbon capture and storage technology, which climate activists see as not a solution?

We can do what we’ve set out to do between now and 2030 without using carbon capture. Beyond that, we believe that the world will need sort of every tool available to it to meet its net-zero. In the longer term, things like natural climate solutions, things like carbon capture and storage will be a very big part.
What about offsets, like planting trees?

That’s what I mean by natural climate solutions. Planting trees or preventing trees from being cut down. There is no silver bullet. I wish there was. The world is going to have to use every tool to help it get there. People like Mark Carney, Prince Charles, activists that I’ve spoken to, Conservation International, these people believe that this is part of the solution and it will be part of our toolkit in the medium term.

The barrels where we have existing infrastructure are very positive, because you’re not having to build new infrastructure and start up new facilities. So places like the Gulf of Mexico will be very important to the company for a very long time to come. Our position in the onshore in the United States is very important to the company for a long time. We’re mainly in Texas.
But you will still be exploring and producing new fields.

It is a three-part strategy and there is not a light switch. We cannot turn off the business that generates the cash flow overnight.

There is 100 million barrels a day being used in the world today. BP produces about 2.5 million barrels a day right now. If BP is somehow removed from the system, the 100 million demand isn’t going to go away. People still need the product they need. And you would somehow have just removed one of the greatest contributors for positive change. Why would you want to do that? What you really want to do is back those people, to make the transition a real success. But you can’t do it overnight. You simply cannot flick a switch.
The market has not been particularly giddy with enthusiasm about your strategy.

Why do you think that is?
I don’t know. You tell me.

Well, look, I think this is a big change. The most important part of our strategy is what we call performing while transforming. You have to do multiple things at once. It’s about reducing emissions, and it’s about growing cash-flow. It’s about purpose. We just had our third quarter in a row of strong results. Our business is running really, really well.
I was struck by the testimony of oil executives before the U.S. Congress in late October. The whole framing of that was this is like the Big Tobacco testimony, which was so memorable. Hollywood movies were made of it. Firstly, what’s it like to be compared to Big Tobacco in the media?

I think the provision of energy to the world is a very, very different proposition to tobacco. The energy that the world has consumed over the last many, many decades has brought about enormous increases in standards of living. So that’s how I think about it.
Talking of that, climate activists say the industry never deals with its historic carbon emissions, and the fact that they have taken so much out of the world’s carbon budget. It has been a century. Aside from transitioning to green energy now, is there also a kind of debt to be paid to the planet?

I’m not the best person to ask about that. What I can tell you is that in 1997, BP’s chief executive Lord Browne gave a speech at Stanford University, where he was the first leader in our industry to acknowledge that there was a link between human activity and carbon emissions. And if you look at the work that we have done since then, including investing $10 billion and writing off most of it between 2000 and 2010, because we were simply too early, the world wasn’t really ready for renewable energy. We established an internal emissions trading system. We’ve been doing everything that we can to put this on the agenda and be do something about it.

We have both an opportunity and a responsibility to help the world transition. I actually believe that with the thousands of engineers and the thousands of scientists and one of the world’s largest trading organizations and decades of experience in the energy markets, we actually can help. Society wants reliable, affordable, clean energy. This is not easy when you have wind, solar, hydro, natural gas, nuclear in the mix. Somebody has to take those forms of energy and knit them together to give a hospital or give a data center what it needs.

Think about it. We spent decades going offshore, drilling for oil, finding it, building big facilities, producing it, refining it, putting it into our retail network into your car. We’re going to take offshore wind. We’re going to build that. And this time we’re going to generate electrons rather than molecules, and we’re going to take those electrons in our energy system, take them to our charging network, and put them into your car.

I am thinking of buying a car, trying to figure out what to get.
Will you buy an electric vehicle?

I think it may be a hybrid. The hybrid is a nice representation of a world in transition.
You mentioned your trading business, which is a big business. The 40% cut in oil and gas production does not include that. How much of your oil and gas is from trading, selling oil and gas that other producers drill?

I don’t have a number in terms of volume. A barrel might change hands 10 times. That’s why we focused on our aim, which is the oil and gas that we take out of the ground and introduce to the world. We’re going to reduce it by 40%.

I genuinely believe that if we stick to our plot, and perform while we transform, that’s the formula for success. It’s not one at the expense of the other. We have to do both. Shareholders like what we’re doing. And increasingly, they understand it and back it.
Moody’s credit agency published a report in October saying the oil and gas industry has a high probability for default, because they are the least prepared for the energy transition. Even if you are a standout in the industry, are you concerned that investors, that a major credit rating agency, sees the oil and gas industry as just not the place to put your money?

Well, allow me to make the value argument. Oersted used to be an oil company called the Danish National Oil Company. It transformed itself from being an oil and gas company into being the world’s largest offshore wind company, and in the process, its value went up by 30 or 40 times. We are at the beginning of a journey that will take time. That has the potential to create enormous amounts of value for our shareholders who invest in us. Good for the world and good for the bottom line.
You think you can convince the young generation of that?

You talk to our employees, talk to our own young people. They’re very committed. They know this transition is not a light switch. It’s going to be hard work.