Ukraine No-Fly Zone “could lead to end of human civilization”

by Yves Engler / March 5th, 2022

Canadians calling for a no-fly zone over Ukraine have lost the plot. Unless their real aim is nuclear war.

Recently, former Conservative cabinet minister Chris Alexander, New Brunswick education minister Dominic Cardy and former Chief of the Defence Staff Rick Hillier have raised the idea of creating a “no-fly zone” (NFZ) over Ukraine. “We’re calling on all governments of the world to support creating a no fly zone over Ukraine,” declared Michael Shwec, president of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, at a rally in Montréal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Congressman Adam Kinzinger have also called for NATO to adopt a NFZ.

A NFZ over Ukraine means war with Russia. It would force the US or NATO to shoot down Russian planes.

A war between Russia and NATO would be horrendous. Both the US and Russia have thousands of nuclear weapons. Highlighting the dangers, Paul Street wrote on Counterpunch that “any elected official calling for a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine should be forced to rescind that call or resign for advocating a policy that could lead to the end of human civilization.”

Fortunately, Canada’s defence minister Anita Anand and White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki have rejected the idea of an NFZ. “It would essentially mean the US military would be shooting down planes, Russian planes,” said Psaki. “That is definitely escalatory, that would potentially put us in a place where we are in a military conflict with Russia. That is not something the president wants to do.”

Even when the target is not a nuclear power, Canadian-backed NFZs have created death, destruction and escalation. After killing thousands of Iraqis in 1991 the US, UK, France and Canada imposed a NFZ over northern and southern Iraq. Over the next 12 years US and British warplanes regularly bombed Iraqi military and civilian installations to enforce the NFZs.

On different occasions Canada sent naval vessels and air-to-air refueling aircraft to assist US airstrikes. Canadian air crew on exchange with their US counterparts also helped patrol the NFZs.

After a September 1996 US strike to further destroy Iraq’s “air-defence network” Prime Minister Jean Chretien said the action was “necessary to avert a larger human tragedy in northern Iraq.” Five years later Chretien responded to another bombing by stating, “if the Iraqis are breaking the agreement or what is the zone of no-flying, and they don’t respect that, the Americans and the British have the duty to make sure it is respected.”

Twelve years after enforcing the NFZs the US/UK launched a full-scale invasion of Iraq. Hundreds of thousands were killed.

In March 2011, Washington, Paris and some other NATO countries convinced the United Nations Security Council to endorse a plan to implement a NFZ over Libya (China, Germany, Russia, Brazil and Turkey abstained on the vote). Begun under the pretext of saving civilians from Muammar Gaddafi’s terror, the real aim was regime change. The UN “no-fly zone” immediately became a license to bomb Libyan tanks, government installations and other targets in coordination with rebel attacks. With a Canadian general leading the mission, NATO also bombed Gaddafi’s compound and the houses of people close to him. The military alliance defined “effective protection” of civilians as per the UN resolution, noted Professor of North African and Middle Eastern history Hugh Roberts, as “requiring the elimination of the threat, which was Gaddafi himself for as long as he was in power (subsequently revised to ‘for as long as he is in Libya’ before finally becoming ‘for as long as he is alive’).” Thousands, probably tens of thousands, died directly or indirectly from that conflict. Libya has yet to recover and the conflict spilled south into the Sahel region of Africa.

While they may sound benign, NFZs have generally elicited violence. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a terrible violation of international law that is likely to have deleterious consequences for years to come. But escalating the conflict through a no-fly zone will only make it worse. It could lead to a cataclysmic nuclear war.

• On March 4 I will be participating in a panel on “Cutting through the Spin: Russia’s invasion, NATO’s provocation and Canada’s complicity”. 

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Yves Engler is the author of 12 books. His latest is Stand on Guard For Whom? — A People’s History of the Canadian Military.  Read other articles by Yves.

This article was posted on Saturday, March 5th, 2022 at 9:46am and is filed under Canada, Libya, Militarism, NATO, Ukraine.

Climate Breakdown

by Robert Hunziker / March 5th, 2022

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — IPCC — has issued its direst warning of all-time: “Climate breakdown is accelerating rapidly.” Additionally, they readily admit to overly conservative predictions: “Many impacts will be more severe than originally predicted.” ¹

The crowning blow of this heavy-hitting report is a chilling statement: “There is only a narrow chance left of avoiding its worst ravages.”

Moreover, the IPCC claims that even at current levels dangerous widespread disruptions threaten devastation of swathes of the natural world: “Many areas will become unlivable.”

Interestingly enough, the world is fully aware that climate change is on a collision course with life.  At some level people know this. This is true because of media exposure of organized climate marches and protests across the globe for decades now. It’s doubtful that you could find one person that has not heard about global warming and climate change, although almost all chose to ignore the details. Indigenous people live with it on a daily basis. The climate change/global warming story is decades old.

However, what is different now is the emphasis and tone of the IPCC. Clearly, climate scientists are running scared of what the future holds. There’s no more time to waste. The window to do something is rapidly closing.

All of which leads to the conclusion that the warning, as dreadful as it sounds, by one of the most noteworthy institutions in the world, may not be enough to change the course (curse) of climate change soon enough. For example, some things never change, the climate change/global warming issue has been a storyline for far too long, and worn thin, and not taken as seriously as the situation warrants. It is a hackneyed complexity that people easily brush off.

Oh sure, people will talk about it on the radio and comment about how horrible things are, yadda-yadda-yadda (Greta Thunberg effectively used that phrase in reference to all of the ‘hot air’ at climate conferences). And, she was right to couch it that way because greenhouse gases far outpace any kind of mitigation efforts by nation/states. In reality, greenish tokenism is all that’s been accomplished.

According to an International Energy Agency (IEA) Paris July 2021 press release: “Global electricity demand is growing faster than renewables, driving strong increase in generation from fossil fuels… notably coal, threatening to push CO2 emissions from the power sector to record levels in 2022.”

Meanwhile, surging demand has fossil fuels at $100/barrel and headed in that direction well before Russia invaded Ukraine. Spending for oil and gas exploration is on the rise as CO2 rises in tandem, knocking on the door of 420 ppm for the first time in human history, lo and behold, it’s accelerating! Does this mean that nobody is serious enough about mitigating the impact of CO2?

It sure looks that way as the most recent year over year change in CO2 emissions from February 2021 @416.51 ppm to February 2022 @ 419.63 ppm equals +3.12 ppm, or 28% above the last 10-year average.

CO2 growth, or ppm/year data for 60 years from the Keeling Curve demonstrate decadal average annual rates registered at Mauna Loa Observatory (est. 1965) elevation 11.135 feet on the north flank of Mauna Loa Volcano on the Big Island, Hawaii:

Average annual rate of CO2 (ppm) over past 60 years:

Past 12 mos+3.12 (as of February 2022)

2011-2020 + 2.43

2001-2010 + 2.04

1991-2000 + 1.55

1981-1990  + 1.56

1971-1980  + 1.35

1961-1970  + 0.91

Over the past 60 years CO2 has increased every decade, and of even more concern, acceleration has picked up steam since the turn of the 21st century. Recent CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa are at all-time new record highs. Furthermore, today’s rate is 250% above its average annual rate of +0.91 ppm from 50-60 years ago.

As of March 2022, there is no evidence that mitigation efforts have slowed down the rate of increase of CO2 even though scientists and the IPCC have been warning of excessive levels of CO2 in the atmosphere for decades. In fact, Dr. James Hansen (Columbia University, but with NASA at the time) warned the US Senate of threatening greenhouse gases way back in the 1980s, a warning that made NYT headlines.

A perspective on the growth rate of CO2 is provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Scripps Institution of Oceanography: “Today’s rate of increase is more that 100 times faster than the increase that occurred when the last ice age ended.”

Which means what? It means urgent mitigation must be employed, or buckle up.

Here’s what 100 times faster looks like, according to Dr. Katey Walter Anthony, Aquatic Ecosystem Ecologist and Professor, Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska/Fairbanks: “It was 14,000 years ago, as the climate warmed, when permafrost thermokarst lakes flared up on the landscape, bringing 4°C warming over a period of 8,000 years.” Nowadays, according to Dr. Anthony, a similar 4°C warming will likely occur over only 80 years, which is 100-times faster than 14,000 years ago. ²

When will 4C happen? Answer: Nobody knows for certain, but Dr. Anthony suggests, unless strong mitigation efforts are taken, this century. Is 4C above pre-industrial a killer, lights out? Indeed, humanity is playing with fire.

Already, the IPCC warning contains a long list of potential horror stories, especially if global temperatures are allowed to exceed 1.5C pre-industrial versus 1.2C today from (1) shortages of food and water owing to climate change, and even at current levels of temperatures, (2) to mass die-offs of species, including die-offs of trees and corals, (3) as key ecosystems, like rainforests, lose carbon sink capacity, becoming sources of carbon emissions directly into the atmosphere in concert with cars, trains, planes, and cows in a powerhouse CO2-fest. Under those circumstances Earth’s innate beauty becomes unrecognizable.

The degree of danger has become so unbearably conclusive to climate scientists that they are letting it all hang out, for example:  “Dave Reay, the director of Edinburgh Climate Change Institute at the University of Edinburgh, said: ‘Like taking a wrecking ball to a set of global dominoes, climate change in the 21st century threatens to destroy the foundations of food and water security, smash onwards through the fragile structures of human and ecosystem health, and ultimately shake the very pillars of human civilization,” ³

A feature story in the February 28th edition of The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine by Megan Lowry is entitled: “Latest IPCC Report Says Impacts of Climate Change Are Irreversible and Widespread; Urges Efforts to Cut Emissions and Adapt”:

In a statement released today, IPCC chair Hoesung Lee said, ‘This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction. It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks.

The IPCC’s report also finds that nations are not doing enough to reduce emissions and protect themselves from climate hazards and few countries escape unscathed.

Based upon several unnerving descriptions in the IPCC report, one would expect the world community to convene an emergency all-hands-on-deck meeting with checkbooks in hand to fund a rapid transition to a fossil-free world.

Otherwise, IPCC warnings of destruction of the core sources for life on this planet will materialize and maybe sooner than expected. In the chilling words of the authors of the report: “The assessment report is the sixth since the IPCC was first convened by the UN in 1988, and may be the last to be published while there is still some chance of avoiding the worst.” ⁴

Repeating that IPCC statement: “… while there is still some chance of avoiding the worst” is a message of foreboding that reverberates across land and sea, all of which, for the first time since humans gathered around fires, depends upon humanity to defend, protect, and husband. Will it happen, soon enough?

Here’s what the failure of countries to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions has wrought. New York Times March 1st headline: “These Climate Scientists Are Fed Up and Ready to Go on Strike”. According to the article: “Evidence on global warming is piling up. Nations aren’t acting. Some researchers are asking what difference more reports will make.”

Climate scientists on strike!

Who can blame the scientists for frustration and anger when record-setting CO2 emissions follow in the footsteps of 26 COPs (Conference of the Parties) and six Assessment Reports, all starting in 1988, and decades of warnings to leaders of the world foretelling what has now become so obvious.

1. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II Sixth Assessment Report, 2022. []
2. “Thawing Arctic Permafrost-Regional and Global Impacts”, National Academy of Sciences, May 11, 2020. []
3. Ibid. []
4. “IPCC Issues ‘Bleakest Warning Yet’ on Impacts of Climate Breakdown”, The Guardian, February 28, 2022. []
   

Robert Hunziker (MA, economic history, DePaul University) is a freelance writer and environmental journalist whose articles have been translated into foreign languages and appeared in over 50 journals, magazines, and sites worldwide. He can be contacted at: rlhunziker@gmail.com. Read other articles by Robert.

This article was posted on Saturday, March 5th, 2022 at 12:06pm and is filed under Climate Change, CO2 Emissions, Environment, Fossil Fuel Emissions (FFE), Global Warming, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Permafrost, Rain Forests, Sustainability.

Thousands of Serbs march in support of Russia in Belgrade

EURACTIV with Reuters and AFP

 A protester rallying in support of Russia holds a photo of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Belgrade, Serbia, 04 March 2022. 

EPA-EFE/ANDREJ CUKIC

Thousands of Serbs waving Russian flags and carrying pictures of President Vladimir Putin marched through Belgrade to the Russian embassy on Friday (5 February) in a show of public support for Moscow after it invaded Ukraine.

Serbia is performing a delicate balancing act between its European aspirations, partnership with NATO and its centuries-old religious, ethnic and political alliance with Russia.

For many ordinary Serbs, the memory of NATO’s bombing of strategic targets in Serbia to bring an end to the bloody Kosovo war is still all too fresh, an action that Russia vehemently opposed at the UN Security Council.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, facing an election next month in which he needs to retain the support of Russian-leaning citizens, has in recent days also repeatedly pointed to Moscow’s long-time backing in the United Nations where it has refused to recognise the independence of Kosovo, insisting it is a part of Serbia.

EU Parliament regrets Serbia not harmonising with EU’s Russia sanctions

Serbia’s failure to harmonise with the EU’s sanctions against Russia is regrettable and hurts the country’s accession process, according to a draft resolution on Ukraine which MEPs are set to vote. On the other hand, Montenegro, also an EU candidate, …

“Mother Russia will win.”

THAT MAKES PUTIN FATHER (BATKO)

Some 4,000 people joined the march after gathering in front of a monument of Russian Tsar Nicholas II in central Belgrade, where they played Russian and Serbian anthems, hailed the two countries as brethren nations, and chanted anti-NATO slogans.

“This is about saving mankind,” said an elderly man carrying a Russian flag. “This is a struggle between good and bad, and we know, thank God, that Mother Russia will win.”

A younger man wearing a cap with a red star symbol said he came to support Russia in everything it does.

“This is the only right thing to do,” he said.

Nikola Babic, a 22-year-old security guard, told AFP, “Ukraine is being liberated from neo-Nazis. Russians — our brothers — are liberating the country, and hopefully the world.”

Serbia’s loyalty to Putin threatens renewed conflict in the heart of Europe

The Balkans’ “Little Russia” cannot be appeased anymore, as Putin plans to destabilise the region through Russia’s historic ally, Serbia, writes Faton Tony Bislimi, PhD.

Among the protesters were also local members of Russia’s “Night Wolves” motorcycle club, known to have close ties to Putin and with a history of fighting in Ukraine on the side of pro-Russian separatists during the 2014 Crimea crisis and war over the Donbas region.

The political views of many in Serbia are influenced by tabloids close to Vucic, which have echoed Moscow’s sentiment of the war in Ukraine. One carried the headline ‘Ukraine attacked Russia!’ on the first day of the invasion.

But there is also support for Ukraine, with dozens protesting Russia’s invasion in front of its embassy earlier this week and more events expected over the weekend.

Russia calls its actions a ‘special operation’ designed not to occupy territory but to destroy its neighbour’s military capabilities and capture what it regards as dangerous nationalists. The government has banned media from using the word “invasion” when referring to their actions.

Many protesters carried placards with the letter Z on them – the symbol that has been seen on Russian tanks in Ukraine.

Earlier on Friday, Vucic told Ukraine’s ambassador in Serbia that Belgrade respects international law and the territorial integrity of Ukraine and that it stands ready to provide humanitarian aid and accept refugees.

Serbia's UN vote against Russia's invasion of Ukraine decrypted

Given Belgrade’s loyalty to Moscow, it came as a surprise to many that Serbia supported a United Nations resolution on Wednesday (2 March) asking Russia to “immediately” withdraw from Ukraine.

Serbia, which relies on Moscow for its energy needs, also joined the UN General Assembly’s condemnation of Russia’s attack but has repeatedly refused to introduce sanctions against Moscow.

Vucic has said the country is coming under intense pressure to harmonise its foreign policy with the European Union, which it aims to join.

The country’s flag carrier Air Serbia even increased its flights to Russia when the EU and other Western Balkan countries have banned Russian planes from its airspace.

Vucic has successfully juggled Serbia’s relations with eastern and western powers for years, scoring substantial financial aid from the European Union alongside significant business deals with China and arms deals with Russia.

Critics and rights groups have accused Vucic of eroding democracy, including curbing media freedoms and undermining institutions in a similar manner to Moscow.

UK woman on 11-year mission to reproduce Bayeux Tapestry

     

"I had nothing to do and I was really, really bored so I thought I needed a project that I can't finish in a hurry, and what's bigger than the Bayeux Tapestry?"

 

In January, she reached the halfway mark.

The work is so big it doesn't fit in her house, so she keeps it rolled up (AFP/ADRIAN DENNIS)


Valentine GRAVELEAU
Fri, March 4, 2022

Curled up on her sofa in the east of England, former teacher Mia Hansson carefully adds another stitch to her life-size reproduction of the world-famous Bayeux Tapestry.

Swedish-born Hansson began the project in 2016, working for several hours a day to reproduce the epic 70-metre (230-foot) embroidery of William the Conqueror's invasion of England.

"I had nothing to do and I was really, really bored so I thought I needed a project that I can't finish in a hurry, and what's bigger than the Bayeux Tapestry?" Hansson, 47, told AFP at her home in Wisbech, Cambridgeshire.

The nearly 1,000-year-old original is a symbol of the frequently tempestuous relations between the UK and the European mainland.

Hansson, who has lived in Britain for more than 20 years, has been working on her version for three to four hours a day for the last five-and-a-half years.

In January, she reached the halfway mark.

She must keep her work rolled up as her house isn't big enough to unfurl it, and knows the tapestry so intimately that she even knows the little mistakes made by the original creators.

"Look here for example: you can see four soldiers' heads but only four legs, something is wrong!" she said. "But who am I to correct what they did?"

- 8,000 metres of wool -

The 11th-century embroidery tells the story of events leading up to William the Conqueror's Norman conquest of England, culminating with King Harold Godwinson's death at the Battle of Hastings in 1066.

The tapestry, believed to have been made in England, was recognised by UNESCO in 2007 as a "Memory of the World".

Today it is housed in a museum in the town of Bayeux, in the Normandy region of northwestern France.

There is talk of the original visiting Britain on loan, but not before a full restoration, currently set for late 2024 and due to take at least 18 months.

Hansson said she was not much interested in the history when she began the project, but stitching the 626 characters has made her an expert.

"You have everything -- you have birds and dragons, camels, horses, ships, buildings... and nothing is ever the same," she says.

"Even if there's two horses, they're not going to be the same. There will never be a repeat."

Hansson is using seven different colours of wool on a linen base.

"If I remember correctly I calculated about 8,000 metres of wool in total," she said.

She's given herself another five years -- until July 13, 2027 -- to finish the project, or a total of 11 years to the day after she began.

"As far as I know, there's nobody else in Europe" who has reproduced the tapestry, she said, although Hansson heard of someone in Canada taking 10 years to make one.

Once hers is completed, Hansson says she might

sell the work, noting that her husband has been working to support her obsession.

"It would be nice if it paid for itself so I can put my feet up," she said.

"If someone gives me an offer I can't refuse, that's fine."

vg/gmo/cjo/phz/er

'Maladaptation': how not to cope with climate change

by Marlowe Hood

Sea walls, dykes and flood-control gates can "create long-term lock-in of vulnerability, exposure

 and risks," according to the IPCC report on climate impacts.

A crescendo of deadly extreme weather is outpacing preparations for a climate-addled world, according to a landmark UN assessment of climate impacts released this week.

Whether it is sustainable farming or bioengineered crops to boost food security; restoring mangrove forests or building sea dams to buffer rising oceans; urban green corridors or air conditioning to temper killer heatwaves—the search for ways to cope with the fallout of global heating has become urgent.

"At current rates of adaptation planning and implementation, the adaptation gap will continue to grow," the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns.

At the same time, however, the 3,650-page IPCC report raises red flags about how schemes to deal with climate impacts can go wrong.

There's even a word for it: "maladaptation".

"We're finding that there are many cases in which adaptation projects don't work," said Clark University professor Ed Carr, lead author of a chapter in the IPCC report on climate resilient development. "Some have actually made things worse."

Building a dam, for example, to prevent urban flooding may help protect a small area for a limited time period.

"But if the measure you put in place has negative consequences along the rest of the river and makes things worse in the long run, that's maladaptation," said Imperial College London's Friederike Otto.

Otto, a pioneer in quantifying the extent to which climate change makes extreme weather more likely or intense, said people often fail to recognise the role bad choices—building houses in a flood plain, for example—play in disasters.

Lack of data

"Just blaming climate change alone can lead to maladaptation," she told AFP.

Sometimes coping measures have unintended consequences.

Sometimes coping measures have unintended consequences.

Kwame Owusu-Daaku, an assistant professor at the University of West Florida, investigated the aftermath of sea barriers erected in front of a modest fishing village near the Volta River estuary in Ghana to prevent beach erosion due to storm surges and rising seas.

The sea walls worked. In fact they worked so well that a large real estate developer—hand in glove with the local government—took over the land to build luxury, beach-front chalets.

"The people who lived there were kicked off the land," Owusu-Daaku said in an interview, calling the outcome an example of "maladaptation opportunism".

No only was this unfair, it is probably unsustainable too, according to the IPCC report.

Sea walls, dykes and flood-control gates "create long-term lock-in of vulnerability, exposure and risks that are difficult and costly to change," it said.

And while hard engineered structures may protect against hazards up to a certain point, they also create "an illusion of no risk".

Another source of maladaptation is lack of data.

"You can only adapt to what you know," said Mohamed Adow, founder and director of the Nairobi-based Africa Power Shift.

"In the case of Africa, we know very little. How do you create early warning systems for extreme weather without data?", he told AFP.

Climate change will force people to devise strategies to deal with more frequent and intense heatwaves.

Not well thought-out

In a world where new infrastructure—roads, buildings, sewage systems—must serve both development and adaptation objectives, a lot of construction is probably not fit for a 1.5C world, much less one that could warm 2C or 3C above pre-industrial levels, experts say.

The Earth's average surface temperature has already risen 1.1C compared to that benchmark.

"Maladaptation happens when you try to solve one problem and wind up creating another," said Patrick Verkooijen from the Global Center on Adaptation.

"There are so many examples of well-intentioned measures that are not thought through in a holistic way."

A study of more than 300 initiatives for coping with climate change cited in the IPCC report found that one-third may have unintended and negative consequences.

A more detailed analysis of three projects in Cambodia—promoting irrigation, forest protection and tree planting—"found evidence that local communities' rights being violated and destruction of biodiverse habitats."

The potential for maladaptation "had been ignored by international donors as well as national authorities," the report concluded.

Other types of maladaptation are recurrent, especially in the global South.

Eighty percent of land used to grow food is rain-fed, and thus highly vulnerable to droughts made worse by rising temperatures. In parts of Africa, more frequent dry spells will likely double in length in a 2C world.

The most common adaptation response to drought is irrigation, but this potentially vital solution can cause problems of its own.

Coastal floods projected to occur at least once per year by 2050 even carbon reduction emissions scenarios in line with Paris Agreement.

The adaptation COP

Extracting groundwater for irrigation can deplete aquifers, which in turn can make water unsuitable for human consumption and aggravate drought conditions.

For heatwaves, air conditioning can be a literal life-saver, especially in regions projected to see an increase in so-called deadly heat days.

"But at the societal level, it is maladaptive because of its high demands on energy and associated heat emissions, especially in high-density cities," the report warns.

And expensive: A study in the Vietnamese capital Hanoi found that some people don't use air conditioners purchased to keep cool at night because they cost too much to run.

In the UN climate negotiations launched 30 years ago, adaptation has always been a poor cousin to goal of curbing greenhouse gas emissions.

But the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow last Fall helped restore a balance, launching a two-year process to define adaptation goals and mobilise financing.

"Sharm-El-Sheikh must be seen as the adaptation COP," said Adow, referring to the next year-end climate meet in Egypt.

A major goal of the political process will be to avoid the kinds of maladaptation highlighted by the IPCC.

"We have waited so long to tackle climate change that we are already paying the price today of climate impacts," said Verkooijen.

"But that doesn't mean we shouldn't invest in adaptation for tomorrow, because the costs are only increasing over time if we don't act."

Five key points in the IPCC report on climate change impacts and adaptation

© 2022 AFP

South Korea: Wildfire triggers mass evacuation

A wildfire in an eastern coastal area of South Korea has forced the evacuation of more than 6,000 people. The blaze temporarily threatened a nuclear power station, with the president issuing an alarm.

A major wildfire has devasted a large area on South Korea's eastern coast

Thousands of South Korean firefighters and troops on Saturday worked to put out a large wildfire that has spread across more than 6,000 hectares (almost 15,000 acres) since breaking out on a mountain on the country's eastern coast.

The fire threatened at one stage to reach a nuclear power plant and South Korea's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) production complex, but firefighters brought the blaze under control before it reached the facilities, according to officials cited by Yonhap news agency.

At least 159 homes and 46 other buildings have been destroyed, and some 6,200 people have been evacuated from the affected region, according to The Associated Press.
There were no immediate reports of injuries or deaths.

More than 60 helicopters are helping extinguish the blaze

How has the fire progressed?

The fire began on Friday morning on a mountain in the coastal town of Uljin, about 330 kilometers (205 miles) southeast of the capital, Seoul, and was then driven by winds northward to the nearby city of Samcheok.

The fire prompted President Moon Jae-in to issue an alarm on Friday afternoon as flames reached the surroundings of the Hanul Nuclear Power Plant in Uljin.

 The alarm was lifted after firefighters successfully prevented the blaze from spreading to the facility.

The fire has forced thousands to leave their homes

The cause of the fire, which grew rapidly in strong winds and dry conditions, is being investigated by officials, the Ministry of the Interior and Safety said.

Yonhap cited KFS chief Choi Byeong-am as saying that firefighters aimed "to bring all flames under control by sunset."

tj/fb (AP, AFP)

Myanmar: Could German technology soon help the military stifle dissent?

Norway's Telenor was long seen as the most trustworthy means of communication in Myanmar. As it prepares to sell off its operations there, it may leave behind an invasive wiretapping system made in Germany.


Myanmar continues to crack down on opposition and dissent

To quash all dissent, a regime needs total control of communications: when it can eavesdrop on phone calls and intercept emails and messages as they are being exchanged, it can more easily rout out activists and target opposition figures or guerilla forces operating in hiding.

Then, in the words of the man on the grainy video call, the military "will do whatever it wants."

He is scared, he says, afraid that his revelation might be traced back to him. The man is talking about a system that might soon be employed to spy on those opposing Myanmar's brutal military regime, which took power last year in a coup that quickly turned bloody.

Yet, he is adamant to share the information he has despite the potential risks. "Please," his first message to DW reads, "let me raise our voices regarding interception."

He is talking about so-called lawful interception. Put simply, it refers to a process in which a service provider or network operator routes intercepted communications to the country's law enforcement.

In short, this allows authorities to wiretap individuals or organizations without their knowledge.

Lawful interception

In most countries, strict procedures are put in place to prevent misuse, hence the term "lawful interception." Law enforcement agencies generally need to obtain a court order before they can mandate the service provider to share any given individual's data. A copy is diverted to the law enforcement's monitoring center, where agents in turn listen in on live calls, messages and emails if they are not encrypted.

In addition, algorithms can sift through huge data troves, flagging certain key words or connections.

It's a tool to solve crime, but in the wrong hands, it can be turned into a powerful and chilling weapon against dissent.

That may soon be the case in Myanmar: an investigation by DW and independent news service Myanmar Now has found that the junta might soon be able to tap into a lawful interception management system created by a German software company.

It's hard to fathom the potential reach and implications of this move, without first taking a closer look at Myanmar's telecommunications sector.

Thousands have been detained following the coup.

'We trusted Telenor'

From 2010 onwards, following decades of brutal military rule characterized by strict censorship, imprisonment of opponents and international isolation, Myanmar slowly transitioned towards democracy. This included foreign investment into key industries, such as its telecommunications sector.

Norwegian operator Telenor, alongside Qatar's Ooredoo, were both granted 15-year licenses in 2013. The other two operators are state-backed MPT and Mytel. The latter was set up as a joint venture by the militaries of Myanmar and Vietnam.

Telenor, a company partly owned by the Norwegian government, soon developed a reputation as a relatively secure and trustworthy provider, given the other choices.

"We trusted Telenor," one activist told DW.

John Quinley, a researcher at the human rights organization Fortify Rights, agreed: Telenor, he said, was different to many local operators, in that it had one of the best human rights practices.

To date, 18 million people, roughly a third of Myanmar's population, are Telenor subscribers, according to the Norwegian company.

Myanmar is a majority share-holder in Telenor's domestic operations

Did Telenor Myanmar install interception system?

From the outset, Telenor was required to comply with lawful interception demands made by the authorities: DW has acquired a copy of Telenor Myanmar's operating licence. It clearly states that the "Licensee shall comply with any order to provide or facilitate the lawful interception of any Telecommunications" according to the law.

DW has learnt that in late 2017, Telenor appears to have acquired, via a third party, a lawful interception management system created by German company Utimaco. That is to say, a system that, when actively deployed, could help the authorities wiretap Telenor's customers.

Sources have told DW that it was subsequently installed and connected to the Burmese government's monitoring system. DW cannot independently verify these claims.

Telenor declined to comment on individual questions, including ones specifically about Utimaco or whether it had installed a lawful interception management system. But, in a written statement it explained that "a key reason why Telenor is selling Telenor Myanmar is that we cannot activate intercept equipment, which all operators are required to."

Previously, the company had stressed that an active deployment of the system would be subject to Norwegian and EU sanctions imposed in 2018, which placed restrictions on the export of dual use technology and its use in Myanmar.

Utimaco, in a written response to DW, claimed that it had adhered to all export regulations while doing business "with partners in Asia" prior to 2018.

In a statement to Justice for Myanmar, a covert group of activists, the German tech company said that it "has never conducted direct business with one of the mobile network operators in Mynamar." And that, with the introduction of the EU's export restrictions in 2018, "Utimaco informed its international business partners that Utimaco ends all activities regarding partner projects in Myanmar. In accordance with EU export law, Utimaco has also not delivered any products or services nor provided any support via indirect partners since then."

Utimaco's statement added that it had "at all times complied and is continuously committed to complying with all applicable export control, customs, economic sanctions, and anti-boycott laws and regulations, rules, and associated executive orders of the United States, the European Union and every other countries' jurisdictions in which it conducts business." Thus, the company added, it "requires all of its resellers and customers to strictly adhere to" said laws and regulations.
Telenor's decision to pull out

Even before the coup in Myanmar, Telenor was under pressure from the then-government under Aung San Suu Kyi, according to the company itself.

It's sustainability report published in December 2020 tersely states that some requests "have been questioned for their impact on human rights."

And the report went on to say, Myanmar's government also intended "to be able to directly access each operator and ISP's systems without case-by-case approval. Without sufficient legal safeguards, this creates an opportunity for misuse and breach of customers' human rights."

The military took over in a coup in February 2021, which quickly turned violent.

After the coup in early February 2021, the pressure on operators intensified. The military's brutal crackdown on those protesting its takeover, included forcing Telenor and the other operators to shut down mobile data and wireless broadband internet.

In July 2021, Telenor, which has been operating at a loss in Myanmar since the coup, announced its decision to sell off its operations in Myanmar to M1 Group, a Lebanese conglomerate based in Beirut.

For months, the sale stalled as public pressure mounted among widespread concerns about data protection.

At the same time, at least one Norwegian national was prohibited from leaving Myanmar, possibly an attempt by the ruling junta to expedite the sale and force Telenor to adhere to its conditions of retaining customer data and call logs.
Buyer linked to junta?

This was followed by a further revelation: a Reuters investigation from earlier this year disclosed that the sale would include an additional stakeholder: a military-linked conglomerate with interests in mining, petroleum and gems, Shwe Byain Phyu Group (SBPG).

DW has obtained an internal document from the state regulator from December 2021, provided by Justice for Myanmar, that sets out the deal: Accordingly, Telenor Myanmar would be transferred to a new entity, Investcom Pt. Ltd. This would be jointly owned by M1 and SBPG.

Should this sale go ahead, activists fear it would place the lawful interception system in the hands of a business entity with close ties to the ruling military, most likely more amenable to complying with the juntas' requests.

DW is unable to verify whether Telenor Myanmar's lawful interception system is indeed part of the sale. Both M1 Group and Telenor declined to comment directly.

But it is plausible given that Telenor in February 2022 said that its "key reason" for leaving the country was the pressure to activate intercept equipment, thereby indicating that it may already be installed: "Telenor has as of today still not activated intercept equipment. It is precisely this conflict – between the requirement to comply with local law on the one hand and the concern about human rights and the risk of violations of Norwegian and European sanctions on the other – that leaves Telenor with no choice but to sell Telenor Myanmar."

All telecom operators in Myanmar, the statement went on, "are required to store traffic data and as a responsible employer, Telenor cannot make its employees in Myanmar delete it. It can be dangerous for employees to violate local law or the orders given by the military authorities in the country."

This refers to customers' historical metadata, including who they called, when and from where. This, activists fear, could retroactively help the junta crack down on them.

Add wiretapping abilities to this, and the junta would have wide-reaching control of communications.

Utimaco did not respond directly to the question whether Telenor Myanmar's buyer could gain control of its lawful interception system. "In principle, phone tapping can be implemented technically without a LIMS system," Utimaco said in a written statement to DW.

M1 Group told DW it was "not in a position to disclose details or information with regards to technologies and systems installed by Telenor Myanmar, considering that the sale has yet to be concluded."

On the ground, activists are preparing for the worst.

His greatest fear, one source in Myanmar told DW, was that "the system will be in the hands of the brutal military that is trying to monitor us 24/7."

John Quintely from Fortify Rights agrees: the junta is "basically trying to restrict every aspect of human rights defenders and activists' lives. That includes online space, telecommunication devices and data," he told DW.

It was, he said, creating an environment to try to silence, track and put away dissenting voices.

At the time of publication, Telenor was still poised to go through with the sale.

Edited by: Lewis Sanders

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