Net-zero by 2050 means no fossil fuel car sales beyond 2038, says BNEF

JUNE 2, 2022
JOSHUA S. HILL

The global road transport sector can still reach net-zero emissions by 2050 through electrification, but urgent action is vital, and the last internal combustion vehicle (ICE) must be sold by 2038.

A new analysis from research company BloombergNEF (BNEF) the window to stay on track for net-zero road transport emissions by 2050 is still open. “But only just barely,” says Aleksandra O’Donovan, head of electric vehicles at BNEF.

“A big push is needed from governments, automakers, part suppliers and charging infrastructure providers in the years ahead.”

Currently, certain segments such as buses and two- and three-wheelers are close to being on track for net-zero, but more action is needed in other segments to get on track for net-zero by 2050 – especially in medium and heavy commercial vehicles.

A table provided by BNEF shows that passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles require a moderate amount of additional measures put in place to acheive net-zero goals.

However, it says that “strong additional measures” are urgently needed if medium and heavy duty vehicles are to meet zet-zero targets.



According to BNEF, passenger EV sales are set to accelerate rapidly over the next few years, jumping from 6.6 million sold in 2021 to 21 million sold in 2025.

Meanwhile, the fleet of EVs driving on our roads will grow from 16 million at the end of 2021 to hit 77 million by 2025 and 229 million by 2030.

This growth in EV uptake is already displacing 1.5 million barrels of oil demand per day – though most of this is from electric two- and three-wheelers in Asia. However, rising passenger EV sales will push this to 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025.
Oil demand by transport to peak in 2027

Overall, according to BNEF, oil demand from road transport will peak by 2027, as electrification spreads to all other areas of road transport beyond only passenger vehicles.

Similarly, sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles already peaked in 2017, according to BNEF, who expects the global fleet of ICE passenger vehicles to start declining starting in 2024.

However, to get on track for a net-zero global fleet by 2050, zero-emission vehicles need to account for 61% of global new passenger vehicles sales by 2030, 93% by 2035, with the last ICE vehicle of any segment needing to be sold by 2038 at the latest.

“Electric vehicles are a powerful tool in reducing global CO2 emissions from the transport sector,” said Colin McKerracher, head of the advanced transport team at BNEF and lead author of the report.

“There are very positive signs that the market is moving in the right direction, but more action is needed – especially when it comes to heavy trucks. Action also needs to focus on emerging markets, which need financial support to help enable and accelerate the transition to electric mobility of all types.”
Urgent action needed to reach net-zero transport scenarios

BNEF’s EVO outlines two scenarios for the uptake of electric transport through to 2050, examining for both the impacts on demand for batteries, materials, oil, electricity, infrastructure, and emissions.

The two scenarios are the Economic Transition Scenario (ETS), which assumes no new policies and regulations are enacted and the transition is driven by techno-economic trends and market forces, and the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), which is driven primarily by economics.

Urgent action is needed across both scenarios, however. BNEF points to the need for developed countries and multilateral institutions to include EV investments, incentives, and charging infrastructure deployments in their international climate finance plans, making capital available to emerging economies that have credible plans to develop a zero-emission vehicle sector.

Between the two scenarios in BNEFs report, the passenger EV fleet is expected to hit 469 million in 2035 in the Economic Transition Scenario, but needs to jump to 612 million by the same date in the Net Zero Scenario – a gap which must be met by emerging economies who are supported by wealthier countries so as to avoid a global slowdown of adoption.

Battery electric versus hydrogen transport

The BNEF EVO also explores whether batteries or hydrogen fuel cells will be the more likely solution for electrifying heavy-duty long-haul freight. It finds that – as megawatt-scale charging stations and the emergence of higher energy density batteries become more commonplace by the end of the decade – battery electric long-haul operations will become more viable.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may be able to help fill gaps here and there, especially in areas where electrification cannot reach – such as heavy vehicles, in some regions, or in duty cycles where batteries struggle.

Finally, the report notes that reducing car dependence through the prioritisation of public transport, walking, cycling, and other measures should be pursued wherever possible.

Specifically, even a 10% reduction in kilometres travelled by car by 2050 alone would lead to 200 million fewer cars on the road, reducing cumulative CO2 emissions by 2.25 gigatonnes. Such a decrease would also greatly alleviate strain on the battery supply chain.

Joshua S. Hill is a Melbourne-based journalist who has been writing about climate change, clean technology, and electric vehicles for over 15 years. He has been reporting on electric vehicles and clean technologies for Renew Economy and The Driven since 2012. His preferred mode of transport is his feet.

North Sea oil protestors throw red paint on UK Government building after Jackdaw approval

One protestor brought a sign depicting Boris Johnson with his arms wrapped around a lump of coal, reading: “It’s getting hot in here, so take off all your coal.”


By Sean McGill
Ruaraidh Britton

Trainee Reporter

 2 JUN 2022

Protestors threw paint on the building and wrote "Blood on your hands" in the paint (Image: Edinburgh Live)

Angry climate activists have thrown red paint on the UK Government building in Edinburgh after regulators approved the development of the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea.

It was announced on Wednesday that Jackdaw field, off the coast of Aberdeen, will be capable of producing 6.5 percent of the UK’s gas output, reports EdinburghLive.

But the protestors opposed the move, believing it will put the future of the planet at risk, writing into the paint on the walls the words "Blood on your hands."

Upon hearing of the field’s approval, the capital-based activists sprang into action to organise the protest, and a large yellow banner was unfurled by the angry crowd, which read: “Clean gas is a dirty lie.”

Lucy Walczuk, one of the senior figures at Fridays for Future Edinburgh, felt that a sense of urgency was important in order to make a statement.

“We were expecting the announcement soon, so we’ve been preparing ahead of time,” they said.


“We want to effectively express that anger and annoyance at the failure of the UK Government. We got the details for the protest together in two or three hours and then invited as many people as possible.

“We organised this 18 hours ago and we got this many people to come through. I think it really shows how strongly people feel about this and how wrong a decision it is.”

The crowd gathered at 1pm outside Queen Elizabeth House, armed with signs and banners decorated with colourful messages.

One depicted Boris Johnson with his arms wrapped around a lump of coal, reading: “It’s getting hot in here, so take off all your coal.”

Several protestors brought signs and held them up outside the UK Government building (Image: Edinburgh Live)

While dominated by younger faces, there was a noticeable older contingent parked outside the Government building.

Penny Gower, a 72-year-old who works at Edinburgh College, expressed her worries about the future of young grandchildren.

“I look at my three little granddaughters, two babies and a seven-year-old, and I think what kind of life are they going to have? Climate crisis and chaos is likely to happen within the next ten years. Politicians are ignoring it.”

Multiple speeches took place at the event, with disgruntled speakers explaining their concerns over the now-approved gas field.

There was even a musical performance from 46-year old Majk Stokes, who sang that the government need to “smell the coffee” when it comes to the climate.

One climate activist held up a sign protesting the North Sea gas field (Image: Edinburgh Live)

Some protestors also jumped into a performance of the Macarena in between messages from the key speakers.

Demonstrators also hurled red paint at the building as emotions over the decision to develop the gas field ran high.

Those who back the development have cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a key reason behind the need for further gas supplies.

Bryce Goodall, one of the protestors who addressed the crowd, said the group stand in solidarity with Ukraine, but still ask more from the UK Government.

“It’s a global issue. If we can stop all oil fields in the UK and move away from fossil fuels, we wouldn’t need to be dependant on any country, including Russia. We can make that transition with our reserves right now.

“What we need is political willingness. Unfortunately, the Tory government is showing abject and inept leadership on this.”

Announcing the decision on Wednesday, Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said the Government was “turbocharging” renewables.

He added: “Let’s source more of the gas we need from British waters to protect energy security."

Colombia higher court rules fracking pilot projects can go ahead

Thu, June 2, 2022

A man rides a canoe on the Magdalena River in Puerto Wilches


BOGOTA (Reuters) - Investigative fracking operations in Colombia can go ahead after a court in the Andean country's Santander province on Thursday reversed a lower court's decision to block two pilot projects.

Commercial development of non-conventional energy deposits - such as by hydraulic fracturing, or fracking for hydrocarbons - is not currently permitted in Colombia, but the country's highest administrative court has allowed pilot projects to go ahead while it considers the issue.

Majority state-owned Colombian oil company Ecopetrol and U.S. partner Exxon Mobil Corp are undertaking both pilot projects, with Ecopetrol serving as operator.

In late April, a judge in the city of Barrancabermeja suspended an environmental license for the Kale pilot project, ruling that a local Afro-Colombian group, the Afrowilches, had not been properly consulted.

That ruling ordered that a prior consultation for Afrowilches for both the Kale and Platero project areas be carried out. Colombia's National Environmental Licensing Authority (ANLA) has authorized the Kale project but not yet the Platero project.

"The ruling dated April 21, 2022 by the First Administrative Court of Barrancabermeja is hereby revoked and the request for legal protection is ruled inadmissible," the higher Administrative Court of Santander said in a statement.

The projects are located in the municipality of Puerto Wilches.

Ecopetrol was not immediately available to comment on the ruling.

The Colombia Free from Fracking Alliance said it regretted the latest decision and would appeal to a higher court.

"We'll request a review of the court's decision by the Constitutional Court, considering that (the decision) disregards the precedent of prior consultation and violates the rights of the Afro-Colombian communities of Puerto Wilches," the group said.

(Reporting by Oliver Griffin and Luis Jaime Acosta; Editing by Bradley Perrett)

Scientists Urge 'Transformative Change' to Stave Off Climate, Biodiversity Collapse

"As the window to avoid far-reaching and irreversible impacts on people and nature rapidly closes, the current actions to address these global challenges are insufficient."


A fire burns trees next to grazing land in the Amazon basin in Ze Doca, Brazil on November 22, 2014. (Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images)


JESSICA CORBETT

June 2, 2022

Building on a landmark report from last year, 18 top scientists this week emphasized "the need for transformative change" to take on the connected biodiversity and climate crises—and that "bringing about transformative change requires transformative governance."

"We need urgent and decisive action amidst the accelerating climate and biodiversity crises."

The paper, published Wednesday in the journal BioScience, points out that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns the world could surpass the Paris agreement's 1.5°C temperature target for 2100 by the end of this decade.

The article also highlights a conclusion from the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) that "reversing the processes of biodiversity decline can only be achieved through intentional and transformative changes across economic, social, political, and technological systems."

"As the window to avoid far-reaching and irreversible impacts on people and nature rapidly closes, the current actions to address these global challenges are insufficient," the article asserts.

Incremental changes, the paper states, "are unlikely to gain sufficient traction to be scaled up if they are not accompanied by broader system-wide institutional changes to create the structural conditions for such scaling up to occur," and "also risk being too slow to avoid severe negative impacts on people and nature."

"Strategies to address some of the negative trends have been proposed," the publication continues. "However, the feedback loops and interactions among biodiversity, climate, and society at multiple spatial, temporal, and organizational scales—what we label in the present article the biodiversity-climate-society (BCS) nexus—are generally ignored."

The authors previously contributed to the first joint publication of the IPCC and IPBES, which highlights that though "climate change and biodiversity loss are two of the most pressing issues of the Anthropocene" and "there is recognition in both scientific and policymaking circles that the two are interconnected, in practice they are largely addressed in their own domains."

"This functional separation creates a risk of incompletely identifying, understanding, and dealing with the connections between the two," that June 2021 report adds. "In the worst case, it may lead to taking actions that inadvertently prevent the solution of one or the other, or both issues."

The new article "is designed to contribute to the much-anticipated and long-delayed 'Paris-style agreement for nature' set to take place later this year in Kunming, China where 196 countries will aim to set ambitious goals for biodiversity," according to a Wednesday statement. "The authors hope that their calls for transformative change will help to better inform the setting of biodiversity objectives, targets, and indicators for the next decade."


The paper's lead author, Unai Pascual of the Basque Center for Climate Change, said Wednesday that "international policy initiatives such as the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change and the U.N. Convention on Biological Diversity are surprisingly lagging behind the scientific evidence about the need to integrate a climate-biodiversity-society nexus perspective in their decisions."

"I hope that the efforts by the global scientific community in this regard will be followed up by action from the policymakers," he added. "We need urgent and decisive action amidst the accelerating climate and biodiversity crises."

Pascual and the other authors examined case studies on forest and marine ecosystems, urban environments, and the Arctic. In the Canadian Arctic, the paper notes, "Inuit codevelopment and comanagement are key components of recent marine conservation efforts."

"The codesign of conservation objectives by Inuit and federal parties allows for a rights-based approach to governing conservation areas that includes Inuit active participation and represents a governance approach that can provide cobenefits in terms of protecting species and ecosystems, climate change adaptation and mitigation, and sustaining Inuit livelihoods and subsistence harvesting," the document explains.

"It is unlikely that we are able to resolve the climatic, environmental, and social crises that humanity faces today using the same logic that created these challenges."

Other examples they explored include efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon, battles over formally protecting swaths of the high seas, and tree-planting schemes that are "restricted to cities with already high socioeconomic status or well-off locations" within urban areas.

"Ideally, transformative governance would catalyze and create inclusive (but sometimes intentionally disruptive) approaches for upscaling of more effective and just interventions in the BCS space," the article says. "But our examples show this is rarely achieved."

The scientists crafted five principles that "policy interventions could follow to facilitate moving from reformist (incremental and shallow) to deeper transformational governance for the BCS nexus." They are: focus on multifunctional interventions; integrate and innovate across scales; create coalitions of support; ensure equitable approaches; and build social tipping points.

The paper comes as scientists have grown increasingly outspoken about the dangerous path the planet is on, from sending impassioned letters to world leaders to joining protests—such as gluing themselves to a U.K. government building to demand an end to "fossil fuel madness."

"It is unlikely that we are able to resolve the climatic, environmental, and social crises that humanity faces today using the same logic that created these challenges," Victoria Reyes-García of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona—a co-author of both the new article and last year's joint report—warned Wednesday, echoing the paper's broad message.

"On their own, technological fixes, current governance structures, and economic incentives/disencentives will not suffice to generate the transformative change needed to ensure a future with a livable climate, a rich environment, and just societies," she said. "To achieve these goals, we need urgent changes in the way we value nature and govern the rich common heritage of the Earth."

US House Committee probing Saudi investment with Kushner's firm

House of Representatives committee investigating whether Jared Kushner improperly used government position to obtain funds from Saudis.

Israel National News
03.06.22 04:31
Saudi ArabiaHouse of RepresentativesJared Kushner

Jared KushnerWAM/TPS

A US House of Representatives committee said on Thursday that it was investigating the Saudi Arabian government's $2 billion investment with Affinity, a firm of Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of former President Donald Trump, Reuters reported.

"The Committee on Oversight and Reform is investigating whether you (Kushner) have improperly traded on your government position to obtain billions of dollars from the Saudi government and whether your personal financial interests improperly influenced US foreign policy during the administration of your father-in-law, former President Trump," Representative Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), who leads the House Committee on Oversight and Reform, said in a letter.

"Your support for Saudi interests was unwavering, even as Congress and the rest of the world closely scrutinized the country’s human rights abuses in Yemen, the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi assassins tied to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Saudi Arabia’s crackdown on political dissidents at home," Maloney wrote, adding that Kushner incorporated the firm after Trump left office and it secured the $2 billion investment from Saudi Arabia six months later.

A spokesman for Kushner told the New York Times that he "abided by all legal and ethical guidelines both during and after his government service."

Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that Affinity plans to invest millions of dollars of Saudi Arabia’s money in Israeli startups.

The decision marks the first known instance that the Saudi Public Investment Fund’s cash will be directed to Israel, a sign of the kingdom’s increasing willingness to do business with the country, even though they have no diplomatic relations. This could help lay the groundwork for a breakthrough normalization pact between the two countries.

Kushner, who helped broker the Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab countries, is known for his close ties to the Saudi regime. In February, he met with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

Shortly after Morocco normalized ties with Israel, Kushner said he believed it was only a matter of time until Saudi Arabia normalized relations with Israel.

UCP disregarded research, court order to disclose rationale for lifting school mask mandate, union charges

The United Conservative government’s citing of cabinet confidentiality in refusing to disclose how it decided to lift a school mask mandate last winter is “thumbing its nose” at Albertans and a judge’s order, says a union leader.


© Ian Kucerak

Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta's chief medical officer of health.

And the documents the government did release earlier this week show the province disregarded research supporting the merits of masking in schools to control COVID-19 infections in favour of pandering to their political base, said Alberta Federation of Labour president Gil McGowan.

“It’s clear the government is still using cabinet confidentiality as a shield to deny access to relevant documents. … Albertans deserve to know why they lifted the mask mandate in the middle of the Omicron wave,” McGowan said Thursday.

“Even the documents we have do tell us the government was more interested in catering to the anti-mask protesters than ensuring public safety.”

A ruling last month by Court of Queen’s Bench Justice Grant Dunlop concluded Dr. Deena Hinshaw, chief medical officer of health, must be more transparent in responding to demands by the Alberta Federation of Labour and five family plaintiffs for information explaining why the UCP government lifted the COVID-19 mask mandate on March 1.

Of particular interest to the court were records from a Feb. 8 cabinet meeting that dealt with the decision, which included a PowerPoint presentation conducted by Hinshaw.

But in response to why she can’t comply with the court’s order, Hinshaw signed off on a document stating it’s “subject to public interest immunity” as is a record of the cabinet meeting minutes from that meeting.

“However, Dr. Hinshaw and her staff have made best efforts to identify and provide the documents and information that were most critical and directly relevant to the decision,” states the document.

In another document, Justice Minister Tyler Shandro argues ditching cabinet confidentiality “could impede the free flow of discussion and injure the process of democratic governance.”

The disclosure also lists a litany of studies, articles and research on the value of masking, many of them indicating that face coverings have definite value in protecting the wider community and some merit within schools, though the latter isn’t as clear.

But Health Minister Jason Copping was told in a March 2 briefing note that data shows masking had made Alberta schools significantly safer, while noting their mandatory use had been discontinued over the previous two weeks.

“According to observed Alberta data, which could be influenced by factors other than masking, school boards without mask mandates at the start of the school year (September 2021) had three times more outbreaks in their schools in the first few months of the school year,” stated Susan Novak, policy and planning section chief.

“In addition, case and hospitalization rates per 100,000 population in Alberta for children five to 11 years old and adults 30 to 59 years old were lower in areas where mask mandates were required.”

The note went on to recommend that in lieu of masking, there be increases in other measures such as distancing and hygiene protocols and a continuation of symptom screening and vaccinations of eligible students and staff.

In a lengthy summary of research, Scott Fullmer, Alberta Health’s acting director of health evidence in policy, emphasized in places how face coverings were of at least some benefit.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control data, he said, “concluded the preponderance of the available evidence from U.S. schools that even when students were placed less than six feet apart, there was limited transmission when other layered prevention strategies were consistently maintained, notably masking and student cohorts.”

Another CDC study showed schools in U.S. counties without mandates saw the number of new COVID-19 infections more than double those that had imposed them.

Fullmer noted studies conducted in Utah starting last December suggested mask use in schools was a factor in reducing infection spread.

“Despite high community incidences and an inability to place classroom seats 6 ft. apart, this investigation found low (COVID-19) transmission and no school-related outbreaks in 20 Salt Lake County elementary schools with high student mask use and implementation of multiple strategies to limit transmission.”

But much of the data, he said, wasn’t able to pinpoint the precise impact of comprehensive masking policies when used with other measures like cohorts, hygiene protocols, spacing and improved ventilation.

Ontario Public Health determined use of masks in schools was associated with lower infection rates but “schools had layered prevention and control measures in place, so it was challenging to measure the independent impact of mask-wearing,” stated Fullmer.

And in some cases, such as in the United Kingdom, he said, research showed masking had little noticeable effect.

A Feb. 7 memo from Jason Kenney’s office to the premier is led off with what it calls the negative impact masks have on children and that the data on effectiveness is thin.

“There is insufficient direct evidence of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing COVID-19 transmission in education settings,” it states.

“Existing research supporting mask use in schools has limitations that make the pool of evidence weak and the benefits of masking children unclear.”

The memo cites research from countries like Spain that suggest masking had limited impact or was only effective when worn by school staff.

They go on to cite a number of jurisdictions in the U.S. and Europe that either ban mandatory face coverings in schools or don’t require them while stating children and young people are at low risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes.

But McGowan accused the government political staffers of “cherry-picking” data to suit Kenney’s political preferences and using opinion articles that don’t reflect the research.

“There’s next to nothing in these documents supporting lifting the mandate. … It’s pretty clear it made sense to maintain them,” he said.

McGowan said his group of plaintiffs, which includes families with immunocompromised children, has a week to file an application asking Dunlop to strip cabinet confidence in this case, and is considering it.

The overall case is scheduled to be heard again in Court of Queen’s Bench on Aug. 15.

Officials with Alberta Health didn’t respond to a request for comment.

BKaufmann@postmedia.com
Twitter: @BillKaufmannjrn

ONTARIO ELECTION 2022

Ontario's NDP leader Andrea Horwath wins her seat but resigns as leader

Adrian Humphreys

POSTMEDIA

© Provided by National PostOntario New Democratic Party leader Andrea Horwath at a campaign stop in Kingston, Ont. on Tuesday, May 31, 2022.


HAMILTON — Ontario New Democratic Party leader Andrea Horwath announced she was stepping down as party leader after she failed to form a government despite four elections of rebuilding.

“We didn’t get there this time,” she told an election night crowd of supporters in her home riding in downtown Hamilton.

“Tonight, it is time to pass the torch, to pass the baton, to hand off leadership of the NDP,” she said. “It makes me so happy,” she said despite her obvious tears, “because our team is so strong right now.”

Horwath praised her candidates, her campaign team and Ontario voters, to cheers and sign waving supporters.

She said the NDP showed the province “a new way forward,” and warned that Doug Ford, despite his majority, did not muster a majority of the electorate’s votes.

“We will never stop fighting,” she said. “People are counting on us to be on their side.”

She said Ontario as a whole did not vote for Ford’s stance on health care, climate change, senior care, wages, and other issues.

“They did not vote for big highways to big houses that no one can afford,” she said.

The announcement was widely expected. Within an hour of the early results, proverbial sharks were circling.

NDP MPP Joel Harden, re-elected in Ottawa Centre, told supporters: “I think it is time for change, not only at the head of our party, but in our policies as well.”

Before Horwath’s announcement, Janelle Brady, president of the Ontario NDP brushed aside the call for change, saying she admits she is “a bit disappointed” with the Progressive Conservative’s Doug Ford forming another majority government, but remained proud the NDP remained as official opposition and with Horwath’s performance.

“I couldn’t be more proud of Andrea Horwath,” Brady said.

She said the results should be troubling to the Liberal party not for the NDP. A lot of Liberal supporters switched to the NDP while a lot of right-wing Liberals switch to the PCs, leaving the NDP with room to grow.

“We are a viable option,” she said, and the NDP will “hold Doug Ford and the PCs to account… The NDP is absolutely here to stay.”

The event was billed as the “NDP Election Night Victory Party” but as supporters trickled in, there was little excitement as Ford showed an early strong lead. A restrained applause came when a TV network predicted the NDP would again form the official opposition at Queen’s Park.

But excitement and noise picked up when Horwath arrived at the large auditorium in the Hamilton Convention Centre Thursday night, a facility they shared with a high school prom. Supporters clearly love her.

Horwath, 59, was leader of the Official Opposition when the election was called. She was expected to easily win her riding of Hamilton Centre. Early poll results showed her running away with it.

Doug Ford's PC's roar to a majority win in Ontario
Riding-by-riding Ontario election results

NDP officials pointed to her time spent campaigning in Progressive Conservative ridings as a sign of her ambition and eye to party growth.

During her time, the party came back from not having party status to again be a political competitor. But pressure was on her to perform far better.

Peter Graefe, a professor political science at Hamilton’s McMaster University, said the status quo was not enough to keep her in her job.

“There was a faction in the party who wanted to bring in a new face after becoming the official opposition to refresh the party. I think the general view probably within the NDP was let her have that last shot — can she now go one step further and become premier,” Graefe said.

“If that doesn’t come off then I think all parties, including Andrea Horwath, are aware that the expectation is that she go, and the question is whether it is sooner or later.

“The political realist’s view is: time’s up and it’s probably better to go on your own accord rather than being forced out at a convention.”

When the word “ready” is the first word in the slogan on Horwath’s campaign bus after 13 years as leader, it may have signalled something the campaign hadn’t imagined.

Horwath began the day in Hamilton with a photo opportunity, casting her vote in the city where she was born and raised, wearing a blue denim jean jacket, T-shirt and running shoes, highlighting her blue-collar roots.

She has led the Ontario NDP since 2009, when she became the first woman to lead an Ontario party and led the party through four elections. After she won, a colleague apparently quipped to her that she just accepted “the worst job in Ontario.”

But she started in provincial politics as an invigorating winner.

She trounced a Liberal in a Liberal riding in a by-election in 2004, pushing the NDP past the threshold for official party status. She was re-elected in 2007 general election and handily won the leadership of her party two years later.

In the 2014 election the party’s seat count remained the same but in 2018 they had a breakthrough. The NDP nearly doubled its seat count, to 40 seats, when support for the Liberals collapsed, and Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives seized a majority.

There was one hurdle left for her as leader: to form a government.

Facing a still-wounded Liberal party with a little-known leader, a controversial premier despised in some quarters, and amid a pandemic that rest the civic agenda with a renewed focus on work and healthcare, this election was seen as her best chance. And perhaps her last chance.

Polls, however, soon suggested voters weren’t embracing that plan.

Both the NDP and Liberals were campaigning for second place for much of the campaign.

Graefe said Horwath’s legacy as a leader is uncertain.

“I suspect the general consensus will be that she served a long period of time in what is probably a pretty thankless job. She was a leader who was kind of reactive. It is kind of hard to see what the underlying philosophy was that she brought to her role other than to try to win.”

Horwath said nothing about her future other than it wasn’t as NDP leader.

With her political career having begun with a three-term stint on Hamilton city council, there is already calls for her to run to be the city’s mayor.

• Email: ahumphreys@postmedia.com | Twitter: AD_Humphreys

Leader Del Duca steps down as Ontario Liberals have disappointing election night

Earlier this week, Del Duca pledged to stay on as leader regardless of the election outcome

Author of the article: Ryan Tumilty
Publishing date:Jun 02, 2022 • 

Ontario Liberal Party Leader Steven Del Duca arrives for his election night event in Vaughan, June 2, 2022. 

PHOTO BY CHRIS YOUNG/THE CANADIAN PRESS
Article content

OTTAWA – Ontario Liberals Steven Del Duca stepped down Thursday, after failing to win his own seat, official party status or a significantly bigger place for his party in the provincial legislature.

As of 10:45 p.m., the Liberals were leading or elected in eight seats, up from the seven they had in the legislature at dissolution, but Del Duca’s riding of Vaughan-Woodbridge was not among them.

Del Duca said he was proud of the effort the party made, but it was not enough.

“I have no doubt that the women and men that Ontario Liberals have elected to the legislature will do their part, in fact will do more than their part to help grow a new, and energetic progressive movement in Ontario,” he said to a room full of supporters. “It will, however, be a movement that will be led by a new leader.

He said the party would be out of debt later this year, and he was confident it would be in a better position to fight a future campaign, but said it would do so with a new leader at the helm.

“I know that we as a political family and we as a political movement will be starting the next campaign from a much better place,” Del Duca.

Earlier this week, he pledged to stay on as leader regardless of the outcome, but the party’s result was well below even the worst estimates of most pollsters, who forecast the Liberals would have at least enough seats to regain party status.

The Liberals lost the eastern Ontario riding of Glengarry – Prescott – Russell, which had been held by floor crosser Amanda Simard and Thunder Bay – Superior North. They were offsetting those losses with possible wins in Kingston, Toronto and Barrie.

The lack of official party status will be a major setback for the Liberals, parties need at least 12 seats to garner that status, and it comes with more funding, more questions during Question Period and more staff to help make a party’s presence felt.
Del Duca was a minister in former premier Kathleen Wynne’s government and won the party’s 2020 leadership contest with a comfortable margin over several of his former cabinet colleagues.

The 2018 election was a disaster for Wynne as the party plummeted in support, losing 48 seats and falling from government to the third party in the legislature. With just seven seats, the party didn’t even hold official party status in the legislature.

Ashley Csanady, a senior consultant with McMillan Vantage Policy Group and former staffer for Wynne, said after 2018 the party was left in a big hole and tonight was the beginning of a climb.

“They did a good job, seizing momentum, running a professional campaign that behooves the brand of the Liberal Party, really on a shoestring compared to resources we’ve had in the past,” she said.

Under Doug Ford, the Progressive Conservatives attracted more working class votes than they have previously, even getting the endorsement of major private sector unions. Csanady said if the Liberals want to return to power, they will have to figure out if that’s a temporary move or a permanent shift.

“Is this a Doug Ford phenomenon or have we forever seen the kind of blue collar vote, especially those unions, private sector unions falling into the Tory camp,” she said.

The PC’s had a 42-year hold on power between 1943 and 1985, including 14 years under former premier Bill Davis. Csanady said that version of the party was moderate and welcoming and Ford’s government share’s some similarities.

“If you go back to the Bill Davis years, the PC party was a moderate party with a big tent. And, and the one thing love him or hate him you can say about Doug Ford is he’s not a rabid partisan.”

EVER OPTIMISTIC RIGHT WING

Ben Woodfinden: Doug Ford's blue collar election victory could reshape conservatism

With second majority, PCs should focus on resisting woke dogmas, as well as on economic issues

Author of the article :Ben Woodfinden, Special to National Post
Publishing date: Jun 02, 2022 • 

Supporters of Ontario PC Party Leader Doug Ford cheer as early results trickle in for the Ontario provincial election, in Toronto, Thursday, June 2, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party has cruised to re-election in Ontario with a majority. Most observers agree that it has been a lacklustre campaign with little drama or serious competition for government. But that doesn’t mean the election was entirely devoid of interesting narratives. Throughout the election, the most intriguing development was the wave of union endorsements the PCs managed to gain from an array of private sector unions. These endorsements signal a real shift and political realignment in the province that has implications for conservatives beyond Ontario.


Ford was re-elected on a pledge to “get it done” that is heavy on building and infrastructure promises. This is a crucial part of what Ford’s PCs must do. But they should also be more ambitious with this second majority, and develop a blue collar conservative agenda that makes these voters a permanent part of the Conservative coalition, and can do so without falling pray to the darker and more destructive forms of populism that has accompanied these political shifts elsewhere in recent years.


Beyond Ford, the real MVP and architect of this electoral breakthrough is Labour Minister Monte McNaughton, who personally attracted the endorsement of Patrick Dillon, a major figure in the Working Families Coalition that was a thorn in the side of the PCs for much of the past two decades. Part of McNaughton’s efforts to build relationships with trade unions is driven by practical necessity. If the PCs are going to build the highways, houses, and infrastructure they say they are, demand for skilled trades workers is going to be high and as the skilled trade labour force ages, shortages will grow. If Ontario is going to “get it done,” it’s going to need more people entering the trades.

However, this is about more than just labour market demands. Explaining his intentions recently, McNaughton said that “We worked closely to find common ground and we’re getting endorsed by these blue collar unions because we’re ensuring that people have good jobs with pensions and benefits.” McNaughton has shown that policies that benefit workers need not come from the left. In government, he brought in initiatives like a right to “switch off” and expanded skilled trades education and support.


The PCs should interpret this election result as an endorsement to go further down this road and think bigger about what a blue collar conservatism could be. A focus on work is nothing new for conservatives. The opportunities here are in tying work towards a bigger agenda and vision. Good jobs aren’t just ones that help people pay the bills, they are ones that help people build lives and support families. Objectives and targeted public policy outcomes in areas like education and childcare policies, or broader economic growth objectives, should not just be growth for the sake of growth or labour force participation. They should be explicitly done with the goal of creating good jobs that can support and enable Ontarians to start families.

Riding-by-riding Ontario election results

HERE WE GO WITH THE LEFT WING IS OUTTA TOUCH WITH IT'S BASE EXCEPT AS THESE FOLKS WILL TELL YOU THE BASE IS PUBLIC SECTOR WORKERS AND UNIFOR NOT THE BUILDING TRADES

This shift reflects deeper social and political changes that are going on. In a column for the Hub about the changes happening on the other side of the spectrum, Sean Speer highlighted how “progressive parties have mostly abandoned blue-collar voters in favour of the types of ideological issues and ideas that animate their left-wing bases.” These “woke” issues and ideas have disconnected working class and blue collar Canadians from their traditional home on the left and created this opportunity the PCs have taken advantage of.

When asked during the election about this progressive shift, McNaughton said that “they’re more concerned about statues than they are about good jobs with pensions and benefits.” This is well put, but the PCs shouldn’t learn the wrong lesson here and think the left’s focus on a melange of social and cultural issues means the right should focus solely on economic concerns.

The Conservatives should instead see this second majority as a mandate to stand their ground on culture and values that are still the mainstream of Canadian society. Things like sensible patriotism, public education that doesn’t sneak the latest cultural fashion and orthodoxies emanating from academia, and common sense law and order policies that keep Ontarians safe. Progressive dogmas that are overrepresented in elite discourse should be resisted. A blue collar conservatism would not be culturally radical, it would be culturally moderate, and push back against the wild and out of sync ideas emanating from left-wing institutions.

Doug Ford’s first mandate was dominated by the pandemic, which understandably became the focus and dampened the possibilities of serious conservative ideas or reforms. The PCs should see the next four years as a real opportunity to craft an ambitious new blue collar conservatism that can secure their new labour oriented coalition in the future, a coalition that could also be a model for other conservative parties and governments in North America.

National Post

Canada signs CAN$1.3B land settlement deal with Siksika First Nation

Compensation 'rights past wrongs' for breaking Crowfoot Treaty

Barry Ellsworth |03.06.2022


Canada signed a CAN$1.3 billion ($1.03 billion) land settlement deal with the Siksika First Nation on Thursday, one of the largest in the country's history.

"This settlement aims to right past wrongs dating back over a century when the Government of Canada broke its Blackfoot Treaty (Treaty 7) promise and wrongfully took almost half of the Siksika Nation’s reserve land, including some of the most productive agricultural and mineral-rich lands, to sell to settlers," said a statement from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's office.

Trudeau and Chief Ouray Crowfoot of the Siksika Nation signed the deal during a ceremony at Blackfoot Crossing Historical Park in Alberta province.

Crowfoot said it was important to understand that this settlement is not a gift from the Canadian government.

"Settling this case, which dates back to 1910, is long overdue for the People of Siksika Nation," he said in the statement. "I want to make that clear: Canada is not giving CAN$1.3 billion to Siksika.”

"Canada is righting a wrong committed over a century ago when Canada illegally took 115,000 acres of lands provided to Siksika along with other illegal acts."

Across the country, the government of Canada is attempting to correct colonial acts in which land was taken from Indigenous tribes.

“In order to move forward as a country, we will work together to address the harms of the past," Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations Marc Miller said in the statement.

Trudeau said the funds will allow the Siksika First Nation to improve conditions for its people.

“This settlement will enable you to invest in your priorities like infrastructure, education and supports for elders and youth,” he told those gathered at the ceremony, as reported by the Canadian Press.

“It will create new economic, social and cultural opportunities,” he added.

Australia hails Queen Elizabeth as republican question returns

Australian PM Anthony Albanese lights the beacon for Queen Elizabeth II's Platinum Jubilee in Australia on June 2, 2022. PHOTO: EPA-EFE


SYDNEY (REUTERS) - Australia's new prime minister joined more than 50 Commonwealth leaders in paying tribute to Queen Elizabeth amid celebrations of her 70 years on the throne but added that the relationship had matured, fuelling debate about becoming a republic.

Mr Anthony Albanese, whose centre-left Labor party ended nearly a decade of conservative government in a May 21 election, praised the Queen as "an enduring, inspiring, growing presence of calm, decency and strength" in the capital, Canberra, where he lit a beacon to mark the Platinum Jubilee.

But he noted that although Australians felt affection for the Queen, "the bond between our nations is no longer what it was at the dawn of her reign".


The relationship was "no longer parent and young upstart", Mr Albanese said at the low-key event late on Thursday (June 2). "We stand as equals; more importantly, we stand as friends".

The remarks build on a debate that has simmered for decades in Australia, which was colonised by the British in 1788 and remains a key Commonwealth member. The discussion was reignited on Tuesday when Mr Albanese named the country's first "assistant minister for the republic" in his ministry.

The minister, Mr Matt Thistlethwaite, later told media he would wait until Labor's second term to advocate for a republic but that as Queen Elizabeth approached "the end of her reign, Australians are naturally beginning to ask themselves, well, what comes next"?

The Australian Monarchist League accused the new government of misleading the country by promising no change to the system of government before the election.

"It's unheard of to have a minister of the Crown whose sole purpose is to remove the Crown," the Australian Financial Review quoted monarchist league chairman Philip Benwell as saying.

Mr Albanese has supported republicanism. In his first speech to Parliament in 1996, he lamented that Labor lost an election that year because his party had an "exciting vision of a diverse and just Australian republic for the 21st century".

In 1999, a referendum held by conservative then Prime Minister John Howard, a monarchist, went in favour of maintaining the status quo, 55 per cent to 45 per cent.

Salvadoran authorities are committing 'massive' human rights violations, with nearly 2% of the country detained, Amnesty alleges


By Merlin Delcid, Karol Suarez and Kara Fox, CNN
Updated, Thu June 2, 2022


Salvadoran soldiers guard the outskirts of San Salvador's La Esperanza prison in May.

(CNN)Salvadoran authorities have committed "massive" human rights violations, including thousands of arbitrary detentions and violations of due process, torture, and ill-treatment, according to a new report from Amnesty International.

The report, released Thursday, found that since late March, nearly 2% of the country has been detained, with at least 18 people having died in state custody.

On March 27, the country was placed under a state of emergency to tackle an uptick in homicides, driven by gangs Barrio 18 and MS-13. The country's Legislative Assembly passed the measure at the request of President Nayib Bukele after an upsurge in violence left 62 dead in a single day. It has been extended twice.

More than 36,000 people have been detained since, according to a Tuesday statement from the Salvadoran government.

Salvadoran authorities are "committing widespread and flagrant violations of human rights and criminalizing people living in poverty," on the "pretext of punishing gangs," Erika Guevara-Rosas, Americas director at Amnesty International said.

El Salvador proclaims state of emergency as homicides soar

"Instead of offering an effective response to the dramatic violence caused by gangs and the historic public security challenges facing the country, they are subjecting the Salvadoran people to a tragedy," she added.

In what appeared to be a pre-emptive response to the report, which had been distributed to the media on embargo on Wednesday night, Bukele said "these organizations should also worry about the victims of gangs."

"Hopefully, just as they care because we have captured criminals, they would care about our children, about our elderly, about our working people, about the innocent Salvadorans who have suffered at the hands of those same criminals," he said during a speech before the Legislative Assembly.

According to Amnesty, at least 1,190 children have been detained and held in youth facilities, with many of them charged with being a member of an illegal group of terrorist organizations.

In one case, two cousins, aged 14 and 15, were detained in April while playing outside their house, just outside of San Salvador. Their families told Amnesty that police accused them of "looking like criminals," and told their mothers that they would spend 30 years behind bars, according to the report. Since, the mothers have been unable to communicate with their children and are unclear about the trial that they will face -- with a public defender assigned to the case "barely" arguing on behalf of their clients, Amnesty reported.

A protestor demonstrates against the policies of El Salvador's president Nayib Bukele in San Salvador on June 1.

The state of emergency suspends constitutional guarantees, including freedom of association, and an alleged offender's right to state-sponsored legal defense in court. It also extends provisional detention from 72 hours to 15 days and allows authorities to intervene in telecommunications without needing a judge's authorization.

Those in detention face tough circumstances, according to Amnesty, which has documented cases of torture and ill-treatment inside detention centers.

Amnesty detailed cases of such alleged abuse in their report.

In one instance, a 16-year-old, who was arrested in April and held for 13 days for being an alleged member of an illegal group, was chained to a wall of the detention center, where he said he was beaten by police. Later, he was transferred to youth detention center, where he was beaten by gang members, who he said also threw a bag of urine at his head, it said.

Many of the detainees are being held without due process "purely because the authorities view them as having been identified as criminals in the stigmatizing speeches of President Bukele's government, because they have tattoos, are accused by a third party of having alleged links to a gang, are related to someone who belongs to a gang, have a previous criminal record of some kind, or simply because they live in an area under gang control, which are precisely the areas with high levels of marginalization and that have historically been abandoned by the state," according to Amnesty.

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele speaks in front of the Salvadoran Armed Forces in San Salvador last July.

El Salvador has a long history of organized crime groups fighting against security forces and among themselves to control territory and drug routes across Central America. The small Central American country -- roughly the size of Massachusetts -- led the world for the number of homicides related to the size of its population for several years in a row in the 2010s.

Bukele, the self-proclaimed "world's coolest dictator," took office in June 2019 with broad support, after promising to stand tough against gang violence, which has racked El Salvador for decades.

In February 2020, Bukele sent armed troops into Congress as he demanded that lawmakers approve his plan to secure a $109 million loan to tackle gang violence. In June, he pulled El Salvador out of an anti-corruption accord backed by the United States.
And last September, El Salvador's highest court ruled the president can serve two consecutive terms in office, paving the way for Bukele to run for re-election in 2024.
Bukele's hard line remains popular among voters however, who have lauded an overall decrease in violence to his presidency.

CNN's Stefano Pozzebon contributed to this report.