Monday, June 06, 2022

Elon Musk Threatens to “Terminate” Twitter Deal, Shares Silly Reason He Shouldn’t Pay $1 Billion Penalty


Wren Graves
Mon, June 6, 2022,

The post Elon Musk Threatens to “Terminate” Twitter Deal, Shares Silly Reason He Shouldn’t Pay $1 Billion Penalty appeared first on Consequence.

Elon Musk is threatening to “terminate” his $44 billion Twitter takeover, which is a problem, because his original purchase agreement included a $1 billion penalty if he pulled his offer. So the Tesla founder seems to be preparing the argument that the whole deal should be voided. He claims that Twitter is lying about the number of users who are “fake/spam accounts,” which is also a problem, because he already waived his right to due diligence. But since he has nothing to lose but pride, Musk is forging ahead anyway; his lawyer sent a letter to Twitter on Monday accusing them of “actively resisting and thwarting his information rights” regarding spam accounts.

Musk began laying the groundwork for this strategy in mid-May, tweeting that in his experience about 20% of Twitter’s use base are “fake/spam accounts,” and that the true number “could be *much* higher.”

Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal responded, “Our actual internal estimates for the last four quarters were all well under 5%.” He added, “We don’t believe that this specific estimation can be performed externally, given the critical need to use both public and private information (which we can’t share). Externally, it’s not even possible to know which accounts are counted as [monetizable Daily Active Users] on any given day.”

Musk’s new letter says Twitter sent him a June 1st message further explaining their methodology. But the billionaire is dissatisfied with the analysis: “Mr. Musk believes Twitter is transparently refusing to comply with its obligations under the merger agreement, which is causing further suspicion that the company is withholding the requested data due to concern for what Mr. Musk’s own analysis of that data will uncover.”

That “own analysis,” is a matter of some contention. Musk wrote on May 13th that, “To find out, my team will do a random sample of 100 followers of @twitter. I invite others to repeat the same process and see what they discover.” When many people argued that this was not exactly scientific, he added, “Pick any account with a lot of followers,” and “Ignore first 1000 followers, then pick every 10th. I’m open to better ideas.”

Evidently he did not think Twitter’s ideas counted. The letter ended on a threatening note: “This is a clear material breach of Twitter’s obligations under the merger agreement and Mr. Musk reserves all rights resulting therefrom, including his right not to consummate the transaction and his right to terminate the merger agreement.”

The number of fake accounts on Twitter is clearly relevant to its profitability, but that makes Musk’s behavior harder to understand, not easier. As previously stated, he waived his right to due diligence in order to close the sale faster. Besides that, for years now Twitter has been claiming in SEC filings that about 5% of its user base are spam accounts.

Twitter did recently revise downwards its estimate of total users. The company said that it had double-counted between 1.4 and 1.9 million accounts after introducing a feature that allowed people to link accounts three years ago. But 330 million people still use Twitter, meaning the company’s estimate was off by about half of one percentage point. Besides this minor correction, nothing has changed since Musk’s offer was accepted.

For that reason, many people have looked elsewhere to explain his sudden squeamishness. Daniel Ives, an analyst with Wedbush, said in a note to investors, “Many will view this as Musk using this Twitter filing/spam accounts as a way to get out of this deal in a vastly changing market.”

That’s a reference to Tesla’s plummeting stock price. Musk is partially financing the Twitter purchase with a margin loan against Tesla, and that, coupled with a bearish tech market and more Tesla recalls, has pushed Tesla’s stock price down by over 30% since the deal was announced. Musk may be the richest man in the world, but as much as 70% of his wealth is in Tesla stock, according to an analysis from last year. He might not be able to afford $44 billion for a social media platform right now, especially one as fitfully-profitable as Twitter.

Even as Musk continues to pursue this fake/spam account strategy, his overall goals remain unclear. While it looks like he’s hoping to void the deal, he might also be trying to renegotiate the purchase price to something a little easier to swallow. It’s unknown if Twitter will be interested in that, or if they’d rather take his $1 billion penalty and go on their merry way.

Regardless of what happens with Twitter, Musk may be facing larger problems. A new report revealed that his company SpaceX paid $250,000 to a flight attendant who accused him of sexual misconduct. If all of his business ventures go south, perhaps he can depend on the largesse of his sister, who recently launched a romance and erotica streaming platform.

Twitter Retreats As Musk Says The Company Materially Breached The Deal



Vladimir Zernov
Mon, June 6, 2022, 

Key Insights

Elon Musk believes that Twitter has materially breached the merger agreement.


Musk wants to see data that proves that Twitter has less than 5% of fake and spam accounts.


Twitter’s losses may be limited as short-sellers could be afraid to aggressively short in the stock in the sub-$40 territory.

Twitter Falls As Musk Demands More Data On Spam And Fake Accounts

Shares of Twitter found themselves under pressure after reports indicated that Elon Musk could cancel the deal if the company does not provide data on spam and fake accounts.

According to the reports, Musk believes that Twitter was in a “clear material breach” of its obligations. In this case, Musk can terminate the deal.

Elon Musk has previously put the deal on hold “pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users”.

As the recent reports indicate, Musk did not receive such details from Twitter, so the deal is in danger. Not surprisingly, traders rushed to sell Twitter stock at the opening.
What’s Next For Twitter Stock?

The near-term dynamics of Twitter stock depend on the market’s perception of the likelihood of the deal with Musk. Traders will ignore financial projections and focus on the fate of the deal.

The deal implies a Twitter stock price of $54.20 per share, which could limit traders’ desire to short the stock at sub-$40 levels.

The key question for traders is whether Elon Musk still wants to buy Twitter and is using the fake/spam accounts topic to get a better price. Another important factor is whether Twitter itself wants to be sold, as the company is not actively engaging with Musk.

Most likely, the stock will remain extremely volatile in the upcoming trading sessions. While the probability of the deal has decreased in recent weeks, the stock may fail to develop significant downside momentum as short-sellers will be worried that they could have to buy the stock back at $54.20 if the deal succeeds.

Texas AG investigates Twitter over bot counts


Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images


Jon Fingas
·Reporter
Mon, June 6, 2022

Texas's Attorney General, Ken Paxton, has launched an investigation of Twitter over concerns of "potentially false" reports related to the number of bots and other fake accounts on the social network. In a press release Monday, Paxton claims inauthentic accounts may be helping to "inflate the value" of Twitter — thus he intends to pursue the investigation under the state's Deceptive Trade Practices Act, which protects against misleading advertisers, businesses and everyday users.

Paxton's office is pursuing the case just as Tesla CEO Elon Musk is seemingly attempting to scuttle his own bid to purchase Twitter. Musk has, for several weeks, been suggesting the platform's bot numbers may be far greater than its current leadership are reporting. It's interesting timing for Musk and Paxton's interests to align: Tesla just opened a Gigafactory in Texas, and is moving its headquarters to the region. That's a lot of potential business, and it comes as the state has offered tax breaks to companies building local facilities. For whatever it's worth, Paxton has previously been accused of abuse of office over allegations of bribery, but was eventually cleared by his own office.

Twitter has been ordered to provide unredacted documents detailing the company's active user counts since 2017, the volume of "inauthentic" accounts over that period and the methods used to calculate the ratio of fake accounts. It also has to outline its advertising model, including the revenue it generates in Texas.

It's also notable that Musk's hopes of boosting free speech on Twitter sync with Republic aims to reverse alleged censorship of conservative viewpoints on the site. Twitter has long rejected claims of ideological bias, and sued Paxton over claims of political retaliation that infringed its First Amendment rights.

We've asked Twitter for comment. The company has previously maintained that fake accounts represent less than five percent of users, but Paxton echoed Musk's currently unsupported concerns that fakes might represent 20 percent or more of all Twitter accounts.

The Attorney General has sued multiple tech companies over their practices, including Google (for its ad business) and Meta (over facial recognition). It's not clear yet if Paxton intends to pursue a lawsuit against Twitter as well.


A timeline of billionaire Elon Musk's bid to control Twitter


Associated Press
Mon, June 6, 2022, 7

Elon Musk threatened Monday to call off his $44 billion acquisition of Twitter, accusing the company of refusing to give him information about spam bot accounts.

Here’s a look at some of what’s transpired between the billionaire Tesla CEO and the social media platform.

January 31: Musk starts buying shares of Twitter in near-daily installments, amassing a 5% stake in the company by mid-March.

March 26: Musk, who has 80 million Twitter followers and is active on the site, said that he is giving “ serious thought ” to building an alternative to Twitter, questioning free speech on the platform and whether Twitter is undermining democracy. He also privately reaches out to Twitter board members, including his friend and Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey.

March 27: After privately informing them of his growing stake in the company, Musk starts conversations with Twitter's CEO and board members about potentially joining the board. Musk also mentions taking Twitter private or starting a competitor, according to later regulatory filings.

April 4: A regulatory filing reveals that Musk has rapidly become the largest shareholder of Twitter after acquiring a 9% stake, or 73.5 million shares, worth about $3 billion.

April 5: Musk is offered a seat on Twitter’s board on the condition he amass no more than 14.9% of the company's stock. CEO Parag Agrawal said in a tweet that “it became clear to us that he would bring great value to our Board.”

April 11: Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal announces Musk will not be joining the board after all.

April 14: Twitter reveals in a securities filing that Musk has offered to buy the company outright for about $44 billion.

April 15: Twitter’s board unanimously adopts a “poison pill” defense in response to Musk’s proposed offer, attempting to thwart a hostile takeover.

April 21: Musk lines up $46.5 billion in financing to buy Twitter. Twitter board is under pressure to negotiate.

April 25: Musk reaches a deal to buy Twitter for $44 billion and take the company private. The outspoken billionaire has said he wanted to own and privatize Twitter because he thinks it’s not living up to its potential as a platform for free speech.

April 29: Musk sells roughly $8.5 billion worth of shares in Tesla to help fund the purchase of Twitter, according to regulatory filings.

May 5: Musk strengthens his offer to buy Twitter with commitments of more than $7 billion from a diverse group of investors including Silicon Valley heavy hitters like Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison.

May 10: In a hint at how he would change Twitter, Musk says he’d reverse Twitter’s ban of former President Donald Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, calling the ban a “morally bad decision” and “foolish in the extreme.”

May 13: Musk said that his plan to buy Twitter is “ temporarily on hold.” Musk said that he needs to pinpoint the number of spam and fake accounts on the social media platform. Shares of Twitter tumble, while shares of Tesla rebound sharply.

June 6: Musk threatens to end his $44 billion agreement to buy Twitter, accusing the company of refusing to give him information about its spam bot accounts.
RENT INCREASES=INFLATION
‘We’re all afraid’: Massive rent increases hit mobile homes

Park rents are doubling or tripling, as high demand, low inventory and a rise in corporate owners take a toll on one of the nation’s biggest sources of affordable housing


By Abha Bhattarai
June 6, 2022 




Sue Veal, 69, gardens at home in Rochester, N.H., on May 17. She moved to a mobile home park six years ago. She bought the mobile home for $119,000 but says lot rent has gone up from $395 a month to more than $480 since she moved in. 
(Cheryl Senter for The Washington Post)

For nearly 30 years, Virginia Rubio has lived in a trailer park in Forks, Wash., where monthly rent teeters around $350. Now it’s shooting up to $1,000.

Rubio, a retired home-care aide who lives on food stamps and $860 in Social Security each month, says there’s no way to make the math work. She owns the mobile home she shares with her partner and adult daughter but will soon have to give that up if she can’t afford to rent the plot of land underneath it.

“With an increase like this, I don’t know what we can do," said Rubio, who is 75. "We’re all afraid of losing our homes.”

Surging home prices and rents are cascading down to the country’s mobile home parks, where heightened demand, low supply and an increase in corporate owners is driving up monthly costs for low-income residents with few alternatives. At the same time, private-equity firms and developers are often circling nearby, looking to buy up such properties and turn them into more lucrative ventures, including timeshare resorts, wedding venues and condominiums.


A factory-built home as a means to affordable housing


Mobile homes have long been one of the country’s most affordable housing options, particularly for families who do not receive government aid. About 20 million Americans live in manufactured homes, which make up about 6 percent of U.S. residences, according to federal data. Some experts suggest those numbers could soon rise as more people are priced out of traditional houses and apartments.


Mobile homes prices range from less than $25,000 in Nebraska, Iowa and Ohio, to more than $125,000 in Washington state. Overall, they tend to be three to five times cheaper than traditional single-family homes, according to an analysis of census data by LendingTree.

But rising demand for affordable housing has put particular pressure on the market. Nationally, the average sales price of manufactured homes has risen nearly 50 percent during the pandemic, from $82,900 to $123,200, census data shows. Meanwhile, average new home prices rose 22 percent in that period, according to government figures.


However, less is known about how much mobile homeowners pay to rent the land under their homes. Lot rents typically rise between 4 and 6 percent a year, according to industry sources, though there is little data on exact costs or price increases. That lack of transparency is complicated by the fact few cities or states have rules governing rent increases at mobile home parks.

“Land prices are going up, housing costs are going up and that’s spilling into mobile homes,” said Casey Dawkins, a professor of urban studies and planning at the University of Maryland. “There’s also an overall shortage of affordable housing, particularly in cities and the suburbs around them.”

At the same time, park owners and operators are facing higher costs for utilities, workers and property taxes, all of which are likely being factored into higher rents for lots, according to John Pawlowski, managing director at real estate research firm Green Street Advisors.

‘We’re all afraid’: Massive rent increases hit mobile homes
© Provided by The Washington Post‘We’re all afraid’: Massive rent increases hit mobile homes

In many cases, residents like Rubio said they own the trailer they live in but don’t enjoy the perks of homeownership — like locked-in monthly payments, tax breaks and appreciating home values — or the flexibility or protections associated with renting. They said they often felt caught in a state of limbo: Their mobile home is their biggest investment, yet it’s useless if they can’t afford to rent the land on which it sits. Moving a mobile home — if it is new enough to be moved at all — can cost as much as $15,000, which means residents are often beholden to the parks where they live. Many municipalities also have rules governing when and how trailers can be transported.

“You have a captive audience in mobile home parks,” said Kate MacTavish, an associate professor at Oregon State University whose research focuses on affordable housing and trailer parks. “They may own their homes, but they can’t just pick up and move.”

In interviews with a dozen mobile home residents around the country, all said their rents had risen this year. Most reported increases of 10 to 25 percent, although some said monthly payments had doubled or tripled. Their options were increasingly limited, too: Many said they had bought trailers after being priced out of apartments, homes and condominiums and were now unsure of where to go next. They had used up their savings or taken on high-interest loans to buy manufactured homes with little resale value. Some were considering moving into motels, crashing with friends or living in their cars until they could find a more permanent arrangement.

Rents are rising everywhere. See how much prices are up in your area.

Christy Andrews thought she was making a sound investment when she scooped up a mobile home for $5,000 in Torrance, Calif., six years ago. But now she says it was a big mistake. Her lot rent — the monthly fee she pays for the plot of land where her trailer is parked — has nearly doubled, to $1,700, in the six years she has lived at Knolls Manor and now takes up nearly all of the $1,900 a month she receives in Social Security disability checks.

“It’s horrible,” said Andrews, 43, who left her sales job in the aerospace industry because of kidney failure. “There’s no way to keep up. Do you pay rent or get your medicine or buy gas to take your kid to school?"

The only way to move, she said, would be to give up the only home she has ever owned. Nearby rents are astronomical: Studios can easily cost $2,000 a month, and two-bedrooms are closer to $3,000. Many of her neighbors have been evicted and end up homeless, she said, and she fears she’ll soon be living in her Chevy Tahoe with her rescue dogs, Jozie and Nyah.

Bessire & Casenhiser, which manages Knolls Manor, did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Private-equity firms including Stockbridge Capital, Carlyle Group and Apollo Global Management have been rapidly buying up mobile home parks over the last decade, often using funding from government-sponsored lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Once they take over, one of their first moves is to raise rent, said MacTavish of Oregon State.

But industry groups say those rent increases are often necessary to cover the costs of improving and maintaining property grounds, particularly when parks change hands.

“When new owners come in, they’re doing infrastructure upgrades, they’re improving the streets and adding amenities, all of which are very important as these communities age,” said Lesli Gooch, chief executive of the Manufactured Housing Institute. “When a community does change hands, often times it’s because of a significant need for improvement and a lack of capital from the existing owners to make such improvements.”

















Many trailer parks dot the countryside around the Greeneville, Tenn., area. 
(Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post)

Intensifying housing shortages during the pandemic have given park owners additional leverage to increase rents, MacTavish and others say, as rising home prices force renters out of apartments and houses. As a result, many smaller, independent park operators are also finding they can raise rents without cutting into potential demand.


A billion-dollar empire made of mobile homes


“These creditor owners will keep squeezing you and squeezing you until you run out of money,” said Barbara, 78, who lives in a mobile home near Los Angeles where monthly rents went up nearly $200, or 15 percent, as soon as an institutional investor took over last year

Like many others in the 55-and-older community, Barbara — who asked to be identified by her first name because she fears retaliation — lives on a fixed income. She retired in 2014 from a decades-long career in commercial real estate and lives on $1,700 a month in Social Security.

She sold her two-bedroom condominium two years ago and used that money to buy a $295,000 mobile home. Since then, she has spent another $30,000 turning it into her “forever dream home." But with lot rents rising, she says she isn’t sure she’ll be able to afford staying there for much longer. Many others are making similar calculations: There are already 14 mobiles for sale in her park.

“I don’t know what to do, I really don’t,” she said. “I was going to put this up for sale, but then where do I go? I used up all of my cash to buy this.”

Few municipalities and states have rules governing rent increases or evictions at mobile home parks, although that is beginning to change. Vermont, for example, requires that park owners notify residents of plans to sell and allow them a chance to buy the property. Others, like Oakland, Calif., are revising zoning laws to allow manufactured housing in more parts of town.

“Many municipalities continue to ignore mobile home parks, and that, in no small part, has to do with the stigma around them,” said MacTavish of Oregon State. “It is one of the only forms of affordable housing we have, yet we don’t embrace it in ways that would make it work much better for families.”

The circumstances surrounding mobile homeownership are yet another way the housing market has worsened long-standing inequities. While homeowners enjoyed cheaper mortgages during the pandemic, loans for buying manufactured homes often come with higher interest rates, limited opportunities to refinance and fewer protections than those for typical mortgages, according to a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau report. Mobile homeowners are also more likely to fall behind on housing payments than those who own site-built homes, the CFPB found. And because most residents own their homes but rent land, not being able to cover rent costs can often mean losing homes that they do own.

Rents are up more than 30 percent in some cities, forcing millions to find another place to live

“Almost across the board, park residents are renting the land under their homes,” said Esther Sullivan, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Colorado at Denver whose work focuses on mobile homes. “So a missed lot payment puts not only their housing at risk, but can also wipe out their accrued wealth."

In Rochester, N.H., Sue Veal, 69, bought a mobile home in a 55-and-older park for $119,000 six years ago.


Sue Veal lives in a mobile home park in Rochester, N.H., for those 55 and older. She bought the mobile home but rents the land on which it sits. 
(Cheryl Senter for The Washington Post)

Listed rents have risen steadily — 50 percent over six years — even as the park does away with services like recycling collection. But demand is on the upswing: A friend in the park recently sold their mobile home in a day, for $220,000 in cash, nearly double what they paid for it a few years ago.

“Prices are going up, but people are going to have nowhere to go,” said Veal, a retired biotech quality assurance manager who now receives about $2,000 a month in Social Security. “We’re all worried about a future where our money is going to run out.”

Linda denOuden traded in a two-bedroom apartment near Portland, Ore., for a mobile home last year thinking it would be a good way to save money after her husband died. She used money she received from his life insurance policy to buy a $70,000 unit. But her lot rent is going up nearly 10 percent to more than $1,000 a month, making it just about impossible for her to make ends meet on Social Security and a small pension.

The 68-year-old has started putting off routine doctors visits and mammograms to save money. It has been years since she went to a dentist.

“Living on a fixed income means there is no room for extra expenses,” she said. “I am one catastrophe away from losing everything I have left. It’s a never-ending worry I live with every day.”



By Abha Bhattarai is the economics correspondent for The Washington Post. She previously covered retail for the publication. Twitter
Buffalo's East Side was a food desert. 
The shooting made things worse.








Jacob Bogage
Sun, June 5, 2022

BUFFALO, N.Y. - Route 33 tears through the heart of Buffalo's East Side, a scar in a segregated city that nearly demolished a Black community.

The highway devastated the economies of Black Buffalo's commercial centers and sucked value from historic real estate, spitting grime and grease onto the windows of neighboring homes.

The East Side, where the Black population here has concentrated for more than 70 years, is hemmed in by Main Street to the west and Eggert Road to the east. Route 33 cuts a gnarly gash between the two. The effect is a community stuck in what locals describe as a cycle of poverty and neglect.

Then the East Side was attacked.


A gunman opened fire on Tops Friendly Market grocery store on Jefferson Avenue on May 14, killing 10 shoppers and employees - all of whom were Black - and injuring three more. An 18-year-old White man was charged.

A week later, an 18-year-old in Uvalde, Texas, shot dead 19 students and two teachers at an elementary school before he was killed by authorities. Over Memorial Day weekend, there were 15 more mass shootings, according to the Gun Violence Archive, marking a bloody start to another American summer.

Buffalo, locals say, is a poignant case study of some of the worst aspects of the country's gun violence epidemic. Investigators say that the Buffalo slayings here were motivated by racist hate and that the alleged gunman purchased his weapon legally in Pennsylvania.

Locals say the attack feels like a symptom of generations of destructive policies in Buffalo. Now it has worsened another persistent problem: With its main grocery store closed, the East Side is running low on food.

"We like to call this food apartheid because the absence of these grocery stores is reflective of the range of policy choices and decisions that public and private sector leaders made," said Henry-Louis Taylor Jr., a professor of urban planning at the University at Buffalo.

"The consequences of not having this store open," said QueeNia AsheeMa'at, a local activist, "is going to be greater than we can all imagine."

"There is so much need," said Andrae Kamoche, senior pastor at Rehoboth House of Prayer, a Buffalo church. "And it didn't just start with the shooting Saturday."

"There's a quote," said Alexander Wright, who runs the African Heritage Food Co-op in Niagara Falls, "that says, 'The fork will kill you faster than the bullet.' And here in Buffalo, we're experiencing both, both the fork and bullet."

It's a struggle that reveals larger challenges for urban Black communities across the United States, still struggling with the impacts of redlining that often blocked minorities from homeownership and urban renewal projects that tore up existing neighborhoods and depressed wages and property values.

The tough economic conditions led businesses to locate in more affluent areas where consumers had more spending power, opening the door for others that experts consider "predatory." The East Side - a community of about 130,000 people - has four major grocery stores, according to a Washington Post analysis, and a couple dozen smaller stores with more limited selection.

Tops was the only major grocery store within Route 33, and one of few places on the East Side for residents to fill prescriptions - another service it supplied in a chronically underserved area. Weighted by population, Buffalo's majority-White areas have 22% more pharmacies than its majority Black areas, according to The Post's analysis of data gathered by market research firm Data Axle.

Even before the shooting, Buffalo's East Side was a "food desert," experts say, a term used to describe areas that lack convenient and affordable healthy foods, especially fresh fruits and vegetables. Finding nutritious food is so difficult, residents said, that this shock to local commerce could force thousands of households toward hunger.

Elected officials and civil rights leaders here have pledged to hold accountable not just alleged shooter Payton Gendron, but also the right-wing figures who inspired his attack, and the gunmakers and distributors and social media platforms they say enabled it.

But some locals see another accomplice, one that has bolstered Buffalo's racial division: "the 33."

"How did this guy know to come to this grocery store?" said activist David Lewis. "He researched it. He found out we all lived here. And that's because we're segregated."



'I live in front of a chasm'

To know Buffalo's East Side is to know its minor celebrities.

In a past life Stevo Johnson, a charter school teacher, helped style Mary J. Blige. Sirgourney Cook, the first lady of Macedonia Missionary Baptist Church, is a trained opera singer and performed backup for Jennifer Hudson.

Cariol Horne, a former police officer, stopped a White officer in 2006 from choking a Black detainee. She was fired for her actions, then beat back her dismissal in a lawsuit that was resolved in 2021.

There's a reason they all live here. The Great Migration brought Black families to Buffalo shortly after the Civil War, then again in massive numbers after World War II. They settled on the East Side, said Taylor, the urban studies professor, because that was the city's industrial hub. They worked and lived alongside mostly White European immigrants, sometimes in the same boardinghouses. There's evidence, Taylor said, that Blacks taught themselves to speak and write German to better communicate with their neighbors and co-workers.

Eyeing the postwar suburban boom in the 1950s, area political leaders planned a highway - Route 33 - connecting downtown Buffalo to a new airport built in the White suburbs. They chose to run it through the East Side because it had the lowest property values, Taylor said, a common metric urban planners use when deciding where to place major infrastructure projects without disrupting civic life.

The choice may not have been racially motivated, Taylor said, but disproportionately harmed Black Buffalonians nonetheless; Blacks were largely concentrated on the East Side because of existing financial and legal restrictions on housing. City leaders dug out part of Humboldt Parkway, a historic and scenic green strip that connected the city's park system, for the highway's route.

"It slices through all of those neighborhoods creating a path of destruction and devaluation," Taylor said.

"The tearing up of the parkway ... would not have happened if that had been in a White community," added New York State Assembly Majority Leader Crystal D. Peoples-Stokes, D, who represents the East Side.

White workers fled to the suburbs: Amherst, Williamsville, Clarence, Orchard Park. Black families faced steep obstacles to move into those areas, either because of the price of homes or discriminatory financial structures. Funding for schools followed White families out of the city. Businesses did, too. Over time, as property values fell around the highway and rose in the suburbs, it became harder for families to sell their homes and buy in more affluent areas.

By 2020, Buffalo was the 17th-most-segregated city in the country, according to data collected by researchers at the University of California at Berkeley.

"I live in front of a chasm," said Emere Nieves, a food security activist whose home borders Route 33. Weekly, she scrapes solidified scum from exhaust pipes off the windows on her oversized porch. "It was colossal what they did, and it was idiocrasy."



As food runs low, neighbors mobilize


The morning after the shooting, Buffalo's East Side needed to eat. At a prayer vigil, volunteers arrived with dozens of Paula's Donuts, an iconic sweet treat here. Two neighborhood safety groups, the Peacemakers and Buffalo FATHERS (Fathers Armed Together Helping to Educate, Restore, and Save), started a cookout, flipping burgers and hot dogs on a three-sided grill.

"We'll be here as long as it takes for this supermarket to reopen," said Lenny Lane, a retired firefighter and co-founder of the FATHERS, "and we don't know how long it will take. But we're not going back the way it was. It can't be just a new coat of paint."

Inside Family Dollar next door across Landon Street, the mood was more desperate. One mother looked for milk and eggs and fresh fruit with her children. Another asked a cashier if the store sold chicken or beef; it did not. Another customer asked for help identifying what food items he could buy with money from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or food stamps.

"I don't know," the cashier said. "This is not what we usually do."

Neighbors with cars - reliable public transportation is not a given here - took friends to the McDonald's less than a mile away on Main Street.

Tops set up a shuttle to take shoppers from the East Side Tops to another in North Buffalo, but the offer, locals said, was not very enticing. The shuttle ran only a few times an hour, and dropped off back at Jefferson Avenue, leaving customers to haul the groceries back home.

By Tuesday, World Central Kitchen, the food relief agency run by celebrity chef José Andrés, arrived to hand out hot meals on the corner of Jefferson Avenue and East Utica Street, a major intersection.



Locals work for long-term relief

Officials have promised relief, and soon. Tops spokeswoman Kathleen Sautter said in an emailed statement that the store was dedicated to resuming service on the East Side as soon as possible, but executives still don't know when that will be. Law enforcement has closed the building indefinitely to investigate the shooting.

"Our engineers and construction management team are working closely with local contractors and equipment suppliers to establish the quickest possible timeline for reopening," Sautter said. "We hope to have a clearer understanding of that timeline in the coming weeks."

But community members have already begun planning for the future. A group of neighbors is petitioning for a second Tops on the East Side.

"Somebody asked me today, what do I want to see in six months?" said the Rev. Julian Cook, the senior pastor at Macedonia Missionary. "I want to see talks of another grocery store, of another grocery option in the community, a viable grocery option. I'm not talking about putting some fruits and vegetables at a bodega."

Others are working with officials to get rid of part of the highway. The 2022 budget proposed by Gov. Kathy Hochul, D, includes $1 billion to cover a portion of Route 33 and lay green space on top of it, recreating a portion of the old Humboldt Parkway.

The project will take years to complete, and New York is competing with other states for funding as part of President Joe Biden's $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure plan.

But tunneling the highway is only a start, community leaders say. The East Side still needs to attract businesses to the area. To do that, residents need more buying power. That requires generational wealth, Taylor said, which means affordable homeownership on property that can appreciate. Residents are already wary of gentrification.

In the meantime, community members say they'll continue working to help one another, even if government officials and private businesses don't step in.

One recent morning, Andrae and Sharifah Kamoche, husband and wife and the senior pastors of Rehoboth House of Prayer, backed a U-Haul truck into the Family Dollar parking lot and unloaded, by their math, 3,200 pounds of fresh food. A local produce wholesaler donated the items for them to distribute around the city. That afternoon, they had cucumbers, lemons, bananas, oranges and melons.

"The blessings of the Lord," Andrae said to one client, handing her a crate of 36 cucumbers. "Take a whole box."

Americans split on nuclear energy as safety worries linger - Reuters/Ipsos poll


A bird flies over the Three Mile Island Nuclear power plant in Goldsboro

Mon, June 6, 2022
By Timothy Gardner

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Just under half of Americans support nuclear power to generate electricity, a waning industry the Biden administration has been trying to revitalize with billions of dollars in public spending as part of a plan to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll showed.

The poll, conducted last week, found 45% of Americans support nuclear power, 33% oppose it, and 22% are not sure how they feel about it. Of those supporting it, 48% cited energy reliability, 43% cited lower overall pollution, and only 39% said they favor it as a low-carbon energy source.

Of opponents, 69% cited the risk of nuclear meltdowns, while 64% worried about nuclear waste.


President Joe Biden's administration believes nuclear power, which generates power virtually free of greenhouse gas emissions, is essential to fighting climate change and boosting the reliability of the U.S. power grid.

The administration is also pushing to expand solar and wind power to help decarbonize the grid. The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed 76% of Americans back solar power, while 74% supported wind power, and 68% backed hydro-electric.

Fossil fuel power stations garnered less support with natural gas plants getting 41% and coal-fired power plants 36%.


The administration is implementing a $6 billion program, with funding from the bipartisan infrastructure bill, to save existing U.S. reactors slammed by high security and safety costs and competition from natural gas and renewable power.

The program's initial phase aimed to keep open two plants that had announced plans to shut. One of those, Entergy Corp's Palisades facility in Michigan, shut last month. It is uncertain whether the other, PG&E Corp's Diablo Canyon plant in California, which plants to fully shut in 2025, will tap the program to stay open.

Even among those who said they oppose nuclear power plants, 56% supported keeping currently operating plants open while not building new ones, the poll found.

The United States currently has more than 90 operating reactors that generate about 20% of U.S. power. The newest U.S. reactor came into service in 2016, the first in around 20 years.

A series of high-profile mishaps over the past several decades, including the Fukushima reactor meltdown in Japan in 2011, has undermined public support of the industry, while high costs for building reactors has slowed investment.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online in English throughout the United States. It gathered responses from a total of 1,004 adults, including 431 Democrats and 355 Republicans. It has a credibility interval - a measure of precision - of 3.8 percentage points.

(Reporting by Timothy Gardner; Editing by David Gregorio)

Liberal backbencher pushing bill to make CSIS more forthcoming in its warrant applications


ALiberal backbencher wants to introduce a bill that would set out new consequences for Canada's spy agency and government lawyers who aren't forthcoming in their requests for judicial warrants to conduct national security investigations.


CSIS director David Vigneault holds a press conference on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on July 16, 2020. A private member's bill would require CSIS and government lawyers to be more forthcoming in their requests for judicial warrants.


Catharine Tunney - CBC- June 6,2022

The Canadian Security Intelligence Service has been admonished more than once in recent years for falling short on what the courts call the "duty of candour" — by failing to proactively identify and disclose all relevant facts in support of its warrant applications.

On Monday, Scarborough Centre MP Salma Zahid announced plans to bring forward a bill that would enshrine lawyers' obligation to exercise the "duty of candour" in their dealings with the courts.

Zahid said requiring public disclosure of breaches and actions taken by CSIS and the public safety minister could also help rebuild public confidence in Canada's security and intelligence institutions.

"As a member of the Muslim community who wears a visible symbol of my faith and as a mother who has raised two boys, my family and I are no stranger to being looked at with suspicion and worry when we go about our daily lives," she told a news conference.

"I know how important it is that these institutions be subject to public oversight and held to the highest ethical standards."

Zahid also announced her intention to launch public consultations about the proposed bill with policy experts and affected groups over the summer. She said those talks would help to determine the bill's final form.

Agencies don't 'seem to be there to protect us' — NCCM

The Liberal MP was joined at the press conference by the National Council of Canadian Muslims. The NCCM has criticized the spy agency's opaqueness in the past.

"Actions taken by Canada's national security and public safety bodies have tangible effects on the lives of Canadians, many of them in the Muslim community, which has been scrutinized under the harsh spotlight of national security since 9/11," said the council's CEO Mustafa Farooq.

Zahid's announcement came one year after the Afzaal family was struck and killed by a truck in London, Ont. in what the police described as a crime motivated by anti-Muslim hate. Talat Afzaal, 74, Salman Afzaal, 46, Yumna Afzaal, 15 and Madiha Salman, 44, died in the incident, while the couple's young son survived.

Farooq pointed to other recent attacks, including the deadly Quebec City mosque shooting in 2017 and a 2020 fatal stabbing at an Etobicoke mosque, and called for CSIS to be held accountable for its response.

"We have found again and again the agencies that are theoretically supposed to protect us from terrorist threats do not seem to be there to protect us. Rather, what we have seen is that these institutions not only fail to support marginalized communities but actively target them," he said.

"Until we actually start to see that kind of action, it's going to be hard to actually really believe in this institution, which is an institution we need to believe in."
Justice blames CSIS's 'institutional negligence'

Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino, whose portfolio includes CSIS, said he'll have to see the details of the bill before offering comment.

"To the extent that Ms. Zahid's private member's bill is an effort to raise awareness about the importance of being transparent, about the importance of duty of candour, I think that is something all Canadians can rally behind," he said Monday.

In a decision released last summer, Federal Court Justice Henry Brown blamed "institutional and systemic negligence" for the latest instance of Canada's spy service failing to explain sufficiently why it needed to intercept the communications of a "group of individuals" deemed to pose a threat to the security of Canada. The specifics of that request were redacted from the public version of the ruling.

A similar Federal Court ruling released in July 2020 said CSIS had failed to disclose its reliance on information that probably was collected illegally in support of warrants to probe extremism.

"The circumstances raise fundamental questions relating to respect for the rule of law, the oversight of security intelligence activities and the actions of individual decision-makers," Justice Patrick Gleeson wrote in that case.

The National Security and Intelligence Review Agency, the main watchdog over CSIS, has been reviewing the "duty of candour" issue.

Another review, completed by former deputy minister of justice Morris Rosenberg, called for improvements such as better training and clarification of roles. That review also said those improvements would not succeed unless the "cultural issues around warrants" are addressed.

Private member's bills rarely pass, although there are success stories.

At the start of every new Parliament, the Speaker of the House of Commons holds a random draw to determine the order of precedence for considering private members' business.

Zahid said she plans to introduce the bill for first reading when the House of Commons returns after the summer recess.

While she is low on the order of precedence for second reading debate, Zahid said she intends to negotiate with her colleagues over the summer to see if she can move up the list to get the bill to second reading.

"I think it's really very important that there is more accountability and more disclosure of any breaches," said Zahid.

"It's a debate that we need to have soon. "
UNANIMOUS!
Edmonton video game workers vote to unionize, an industry first for Canada

Stephen Cook - 

In an industry first for Canada, 16 video game development workers in Edmonton have voted to unionize.


The workers are contracted out to Edmonton-based BioWare, famous for the Mass Effect and Dragon Age series.

Unionization efforts for the video game development industry have been few and far between despite decades of stories of exploitative working conditions. While more common outside the United States and Canada, there are only two unions in North America in video game development.

Now added to that count is a quality assurance team from Keywords Studios, based in Ireland.

The 16 Edmonton workers voted unanimously to unionize through the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 401, the union said in a news release Monday.


"Workplace frustrations are widespread throughout this industry, and it has become clear that workers need to unionize to address those issues," UFCW Local 401 president Thomas Hesse said in the release.

"We are proud to participate in those trailblazing efforts in North America."

Keywords Studios operates in 23 countries and has more than 9,000 employees.

The Edmonton team is contracted to game developer BioWare, famous for the Mass Effect and Dragon Age series.


A statement posted to the Keywords Studios website said the company accepts the vote results.

"We value our people and will continue to constantly strive to be a good employer," it reads. "As an organization we want to ensure an engaging experience for all of our employees, and we take any concerns that our staff have seriously."
Contract negotiations

Felix Martinez, a national representative with UFCW, said the next step will be creating proposals and starting negotiations for the workers' first contract.

"The fact that it's 100 per cent, it's always very exciting and it's also very clear — it gives us a lot of leverage for bargaining," he said.

"The employer knows that the workers are 100 per cent into it so it opens up a lot of possibilities for bargaining."

Employees previously told CBC News the primary reasons for the unionization effort was a substantial wage gap between contracted workers and those employed directly by BioWare doing similar jobs and a mandated back-to-work order that has since been rescinded.

"That kind of resolved itself before the vote," Martinez said. "But definitely putting things in writing as well as codifying existing things that people like is going to be part of [negotiations]."

The Alberta Labour Relations Board is expected to issue a certificate 24 hours after the result of the vote has been communicated to the parties involved.

The first game developers' union in North America was formed just last year at Vodeo Games, a small independent studio whose employees work remotely in both Canada and the United States.

A second union was formed this year for the quality assurance department of Wisconsin-based Raven Software, which has worked on the Call of Duty franchise.
Quebec legal aid lawyers set for four-day strike over equal pay with Crown attorneys

MONTREAL — Quebec's legal aid lawyers are striking this week in protest of the government's salary offer, which they say will lead to an exodus of attorneys who represent the most marginalized.


© Provided by The Canadian PressQuebec legal aid lawyers set for four-day strike over equal pay with Crown attorneys

About 200 legal aid lawyers walked off the job on Monday for a two-day strike, while a separate group of about 210 lawyers are set to strike Wednesday and Thursday. Protests are scheduled across Quebec, including in front of the offices of government ministers and at the provincial legislature.

Legal aid lawyers, who often represent marginalized communities and low-income people, are demanding that Quebec continue the 30-year tradition of paying them the same as Crown attorneys. Quebec is offering legal aid lawyers a two per cent salary increase per year over three years, but it gave Crown prosecutors a 2.5 per cent increase per year over four years starting in 2020.

Daniel Lessard, president of an association representing legal aid lawyers who will strike Wednesday and Thursday, says his members have to fight the government every time their collective agreement expires.

"Crown attorneys get their salary increase and new conditions," said the president of the Fédération des avocates et avocats de l'aide juridique, on Monday. "And us, we always have … to justify the reason why our work is as difficult and important as the work of Crown attorneys."

Legal aid lawyer Fabrice Poirier says he recognizes that the 0.5 per cent difference between what was offered to his group and to prosecutors isn't much, but he questioned why the government won't make up the gap.

"We represent vulnerable populations such as people experiencing homelessness, people with mental health issues," Poirier said in an interview on Monday. "We have a role … we mostly want to be seen and recognized. That's the goal."

Poirier was one of four legal aid lawyers on Monday at the Montreal courthouse who remained at work to reduce disruptions in the legal system. "We're usually between 10 to 15 legal aid lawyers working."

He said at least 11 people had their cases delayed on Monday because of the strike, adding that about 41 people will be affected Tuesday.

"We don't want our clients to be impacted; this is about recognition," Poirier said, adding that the effect of the strike could be substantial because legal aid lawyers are required in most courtrooms across the province.

Treasury Board spokesperson Florence Plourde said Monday the work conditions of legal aid lawyers are different than the conditions of Crown attorneys because the two groups are not part of the same collective bargaining system. Legal aid lawyers, she said, are employees of an agency responsible for applying Quebec’s legal aid legislation.

"Legal aid workers are not the government's employees," Plourde said Monday in an email.

The agency overseeing legal aid workers — the Commission des services juridiques — declined a request for comment on Monday.

Lessard said the legal aid system is facing labour shortages, as several young lawyers switch over to the Crown because of better pay.

"We want a strong and qualified legal aid system," he said. "We want to retain high-quality lawyers in the system and one of the ways to achieve this is with parity."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on June 6, 2022.

— With files from Lia Lévesque in Montreal.

---

This story was produced with the financial assistance of the Meta and Canadian Press News Fellowship.

Virginie Ann, The Canadian Press
ALBERTA
Black cowboy John Ware recognized as a person of national historic significance



BAR U RANCH NATIONAL HISTORIC SITE — The federal government has recognized John Ware, a Black cowboy in Western Canada, as a person of national historic significance.


© Provided by The Canadian PressBlack cowboy John Ware recognized as a person of national historic significance

Ware's designation was commemorated today with the unveiling of a plaque at the Bar U Ranch National Historic Site south of Calgary.

Steven Guilbeault, the minister responsible for Parks Canada, says in a news release that Ware embodied the resilience and strength of Black Canadians.

Ware arrived in the district of Alberta in 1882 on a trail crew driving thousands of cattle to the site that became known as the Bar U Ranch.

He wrangled herds of large ranching outfits then built his own ranch with his wife, Mildred, and their children, before he died in 1905.

The government says Ware had a successful ranching career despite "racism, rough frontier conditions, and having been enslaved."

The federal government, though its Historic Sites and Monuments Board of Canada, recognizes significant people, places and events that have shaped the country as a way to help Canadians connect with their past.

It accepts nominations as part of the program.

Janet Annesley, who nominated Ware, said Canadians still have a lot to learn about the experiences of Canada's Black cowboys.

"The National Film Board's John Ware Reclaimed by Cheryl Foggo exposed some difficult aspects of Ware's story, ones we don't like to see because racism is out of line with our western Canadian values of freedom and merit," she said in the release.

"I nominated John Ware as a positive reminder that anyone of any colour or background can have a place in Canada's story. Our rich diversity has never been a threat to who we are. It makes us who we are."

Foggo, an author, playwright and filmmaker, said the acknowledgment of Ware illuminates him and his family.

"It makes his accomplishments in agriculture and his skills as a horseman visible to all who will read this plaque, while honouring the complexity of his life and situation," she said.

"It also simply acknowledges that he was here."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 6, 2022.

The Canadian Press
After years of uncertainty, Falmouth wind turbines to be demolished


Asad Jung, Cape Cod Times
Mon, June 6, 2022

The saga of Falmouth’s largest renewable energy project appears to be finally nearing a close, now that the town has hired Atlantic Coast Dismantling LLC to demolish two wind turbines.

The job will cost $39,950, but the town may have to pay more due to electric work and site restoration, said Town Manager Peter Johnson Staub.

The Massachusetts Clean Water Trust also agreed to accept a minimum payment of $975,000 from the town to resolve its loan. The initial loan the Massachusetts Clean Water Trust gave the town to build the turbines was $4,865,000.

Falmouth's two municipal turbines remained standing near the town's wastewater treatment facility in 2020.

“It’s been a contentious issue for a long time, and we’re pleased to bring it to a closure,” said Johnson-Staub.

A turbulent history

Known as Wind 1 and Wind 2, the turbines were installed in 2010 and 2013, respectively, at the wastewater treatment facility on Blacksmith Shop Road to support renewable energy initiatives. However, once the turbines were operational neighbors began filing lawsuits to shut them down due to noise and what they claimed were turbine-related health problems such as headaches, anxiety, and problems sleeping.

After years of legal battles and town debates, the Select Board voted in July 2017 to shut down the turbines.

More: Falmouth officials take step toward finally dismantling wind turbines

But the difficulties for the town didn’t stop there. Once the turbines were no longer running, the town needed to find a way to dismantle them and either find another use or dispose of them.

The town initially wanted to have the turbines moved and operated elsewhere, though that idea never got off the ground. Falmouth also faced pushback from the state which denied its request to dismantle the turbines saying they were an “energy-efficient project.”

With the recent contract award and loan forgiveness, the town has taken an important step towards relieving itself of the problem. And although the failure of the wind turbines may be a setback for Falmouth’s commitment to renewable energy, officials haven’t given up yet.

More: Falmouth Town Meeting votes push Cape Cod Country Club solar farm project forward

“Obviously it was by far the town’s largest renewable energy project, but with that said there are many opportunities that we can now explore for other renewable energy projects,” said Johnson-Staub. He mentioned a focus on solar and energy-efficiency projects.

The next step for the town will be to finalize the contract with Atlantic Coast Dismantling LLC.

This article originally appeared on Cape Cod Times: Wind turbines in Falmouth will be demolished after years of struggle

Think the Fresno region’s drought is the worst ever? Tree data will make you think again

Tim Sheehan   Mon, June 6, 2022

The San Joaquin River watersed is amid its third consecutive year of below-normal precipitation. But three dry years are merely a drop in the bucket (pardon the pun) compared to a historical record that, thanks to climate reconstructions using tree rings, stretches back more than 1,100 years in the region.

Scientists estimate that since the year 900 – when California was inhabited only by Native American tribes and centuries before it became a land of agricultural bounty – the region now known as the central San Joaquin Valley has endured 35 periods of sustained drought lasting at least four years, according to research studies available on the California Natural Resources Agency’s website.

Researchers base their calculations on precise measurements of yearly growth rings of trees in the watershed that indicate that the river’s historic median annual flow is just under 1.7 million acre-feet. That figure is the threshold for labeling a year as a wet or dry year.

Seven of those sustained drought periods have come just since 1900, and the average length of those prolonged dry spells over the past 122 years is about 5.2 years.

The longest drought period reflected through dendrochronology – the science of tree rings and what they can reveal about weather, climate and fires – was 12 years from 1450 through 1461.

That doesn’t count periods in which a string of dry years was punctuated by a single year of above-average precipitation. The 1450-1461 drought, for example, was followed by a single wet year in 1462 before the Valley was hit by four more consecutive dry years from 1463 through 1466.

“The widths of annual growth rings in trees in many locations closely track variations in moisture. Because of this, tree-ring widths can be an excellent proxy for variations in moisture measured though streamflow, precipitation, and drought indices,” according to the 2018 state Natural Resources Agency guidebook by researchers who studied tree rings in several California river watersheds including the San Joaquin River.

“Thus sequences of wide and narrow rings document wet and dry years for times prior to the recording of precipitation and streamflow through modern gages,” the report said.

“Records of precipitation and streamflow from gages are typically less than 100 years long. While this may seem like a long interval of time, these records capture only a limited number of extreme events, such as droughts,” the authors added.

Similar patterns are revealed by tree rings studied from sites across the system of tributaries – the Merced, Stanislaus and Tuolumne rivers – that feed into the San Joaquin as it flows north to the Delta.

An acre-foot is the volume of water it takes to cover one acre of land under one foot of water. That’s about 326,000 gallons. To think of it another way, an American football field including the end zones is about 1.32 acres, so submerging the turf to a depth of 12 inches would require 1.32 acre-feet, or more than 430,000 gallons.

The following interactive charts show 1,122 years of fluctuations in the estimated annual flow of water in the San Joaquin River, using tree ring analyses conducted for the state Department of Water Resources through 1945, and calculated flows since 1945 based on observations and estimates by the Department of Water Resources and the San Joaquin River Restoration Project.

Estimates for those post-World War II years calculate the river’s natural flow as though unimpeded by Friant Dam, which was built in between 1939 and 1942 northeast of Fresno, and other water diversion projects.

Each of the first five charts covers a 200-year span of time: 900-1100, 1101-1300, 1301-1500, 1501-1700, and 1701-1900. The sixth chart covers 1901 through 2021. Each marker on the charts indicates the estimated flow of the San Joaquin River in that year, in acre-feet.



Millerton Lake, formed by the San Joaquin River behind Friant Dam northeast of Fresno, is shown at full capacity in this 2019 file photo, the most recent year in which the river’s natural flow, unimpeded by the dam, would have been above a 1,100-year historic median.

A cutaway piece of a 1,000-plus year-old giant sequoia tree from Kings Canyon National Park in eastern Fresno County has arrows on its rings to show where fire burned the tree about every 12 years on average. The width of annual tree rings an also show the abundance or lack of water in a given year.