Scientific ‘detective work’ reveals South American mummies were brutally murdered

Scientists uncover crimes from a millennium ago in extreme cold case

Peer-Reviewed Publication

FRONTIERS

 

IMAGE: THE MARBURG MALE MUMMY – MACROSCOPIC VIEWS OF THE WHOLE MUMMY view more 

CREDIT: A-M BEGEROCK, R LOYNES, OK PESCHEL, J VERANO, R BIANUCCI, I MARTINEZ ARMIJO, M GONZÁLEZ, AG NERLICH

How frequent was violence in prehistoric human societies? One way to measure this is to look for trauma in prehistoric human remains. For example, a recent review of pre-Columbian remains found evidence of trauma from violence in 21% of males. So far, most studies of this kind focused on skulls and other parts of the skeleton, but a potentially richer source of information are mummies, with their preserved soft tissues.

Now in a new study in Frontiers in Medicine, researchers use 3D computed tomography (3D CT) to examine three mummies from pre-Columbian South America, conserved since the late 19th century in European museums.

“Here we show lethal trauma in two out of three South American mummies that we investigated with 3D CT. The types of trauma we found would not have been detectable if these human remains had been mere skeletons,” said Dr Andreas G Nerlich, a professor at the Department of Pathology of Munich Clinic Bogenhausen in Germany, the study’s corresponding author.

Nerlich and colleagues studied a male mummy at the ‘Museum Anatomicum’ of the Philipps University Marburg, Germany, as well as a female and a male mummy at the Art and History Museum of Delémont, Switzerland. Mummies can form naturally when dry environments, for example in deserts, soak up fluids from a decomposing body faster than the decay can proceed – conditions common in the southern zones of South America.

Died between 740 and 1120 years ago

The Marburg mummy belonged to the Arica culture in today’s northern Chile, and judging from the grave goods found with him, must have lived in a fishing community. Buried squatting down, he had well-preserved but misaligned teeth, with some abrasions as is typical for pre-Columbian people who used maize as a staple food. His lungs showed scars from past severe tuberculosis. From the features of the bones, the authors estimated that he was a young man between 20 and 25 years old, approximately 1.72 meters tall. He died between 996 and 1147 CE, as the radiocarbon results showed.

The Delémont mummies probably came from the region of Arequipa in today’s southwestern Peru, based on the ceramics among the grave goods. Both were buried lying face up, which is unusual for mummies from the highlands of South America. Radiocarbon data showed that the man died between 902 and 994 CE, and the woman between 1224 and 1282 CE. They wore textiles woven from cotton and hairs of llamas or alpacas as well as vizcachas, rodents related to chinchillas. The state of the aorta and large arteries showed that the man suffered from calcifying arteriosclerosis in life.

Two murder victims

The results show that both male mummies had died on the spot from extreme intentional violence. The authors reconstructed that the Marburg mummy had died because either “one assaulter hit the victim with full force on the head and [a] second assaulter stab[bed] the victim (who still was standing or kneeing) in the back. Alternatively, the same or another assaulter standing on the right side of the victim struck the head and then turned to the back of the victim and stabbed him.”

Similarly, the male mummy from Delémont showed “massive trauma against the cervical spine which represent most likely the cause of death. The significant dislocation of the two cervical vertebral bodies itself is lethal and may have led to immediate death.”

Only the female mummy had died of natural causes. She also showed extensive damage to the skeleton, but this occurred after death, probably during burial and not on purpose.

Nerlich said: “The availability of modern CT-scans with the opportunity for 3D reconstructions offers unique insight into bodies that would otherwise not have been detected. Previous studies would have either destroyed the mummy, while X-rays or older CT-scans without three-dimensional reconstruction functions could not have detected the diagnostic key features we found here.”

“Importantly, the study of human mummified material can reveal a much higher rate of trauma, especially intentional trauma, than the study of skeletons. There are dozens of South American mummies which might profit from a similar investigation as done here we did here.”

3D CT scan of the skull of the Délémont male mummy. (a-d): Features of perimortem skull trauma to the left side of the skull with a large perforating lesion at the left temporal region (arrow) and a fracture running into the skull. (d) shows the zygoma’s fracture of the left side (arrows).

CREDIT

A-M Begerock, R Loynes, OK Peschel, J Verano, R Bianucci, I Martinez Armijo, M González, AG

 

 

The “Delémont man” (right) and the “Delémont woman” (left) – overview of the two mummies in their repository case.

CREDIT

A-M Begerock, R Loynes, OK Peschel, J Verano, R Bianucci, I Martinez Armijo, M González, AG Nerlich

JOURNAL

Frontiers in Medicine

DOI

10.3389/fmed.2022.962793 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Trauma of Bone and Soft Tissues in South American Mummies – New Cases Provide Further Insight into Violence and Lethal Outcome

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

9-Sep-2022

King Charles' succession stirs Caribbean calls for removal of monarch as head of state

• 
  

And an eight-day tour in March by now heir-to-the-throne Prince William and his wife, Kate, to Belize, Jamaica and the Bahamas was marked by calls for reparation payments and an apology for slavery.

"As the role of the monarchy changes, we expect this can be an opportunity to advance discussions of reparations for our region," Niambi Hall-Campbell, a 44-year-old academic who chairs the Bahamas National Reparations Committee, said Thursday.

Hall-Campbell sent condolences to the Queen's family and noted Charles' acknowledgment of the "appalling atrocity of slavery" at a ceremony last year marking the end of British rule as Barbados became a republic.

She said she hopes Charles would lead in a way reflecting the "justice required of the times. And that justice is reparatory justice."

More than 10 million Africans were shackled into the Atlantic slave trade by European nations between the 15th and 19th centuries. Those who survived the brutal voyage were forced to labor on plantations in the Caribbean and the Americas.

Jamaican reparations advocate Rosalea Hamilton said Charles' comments at the Kigali conference about his personal sorrow over slavery offered "some degree of hope that he will learn from the history, understand the painful impact that many nations have endured 'til today" and address the need for reparations.

The new king did not mention reparations in the Kigali speech.

The Advocates Network, which Hamilton coordinates, published an open letter calling for "apologies and reparations" during William and Kate's visit.

The Queen's grandchildren have the chance to lead the reparations conversation, Hamilton added.

Jamaica's government last year announced plans to ask Britain for compensation for forcibly transporting an estimated 600,000 Africans to work on sugar cane and banana plantations that created fortunes for British slave holders.

"Whoever will take over the position should be asked to allow the royal family to pay African people reparations," said David Denny, general secretary of the Caribbean Movement for Peace and Integration, from Barbados.

"We should all work towards removing the royal family as head of state of our nations," he said.

Jamaica has signaled it may soon follow Barbados in ditching royal rule. Both remain members of the Commonwealth.

An August survey showed 56% of Jamaicans favor removing the British monarch as the head of state.

Mikael Phillips, an opposition member of Jamaica's parliament, in 2020 filed a motion backing the removal.

"I am hoping as the prime minister had said in one of his expressions, that he would move faster when there is a new monarch in place," Phillips said on Thursday.

Allen Chastanet, a former St. Lucia prime minister and now leader of the opposition, told Reuters he backed what he said was a "general" movement toward republicanism in his country.

"I certainly at this point would support becoming a republic," he said.

Reuters

Australian republicans offer condolences for Queen but call for debate

Reuters
Publishing date: Sep 09, 2022 • 

SYDNEY — Australians on Friday mourned the death of Queen Elizabeth, but republicans also revived a longstanding debate on ending the country’s association with the 1,000-year-old monarchy.

The British monarch is the head of state in Australia, among 14 realms outside the United Kingdom, although the role is largely ceremonial.

Australia has long debated the need to keep a distant monarch. A 1999 referendum in Australia on becoming a republic lost with 55% of voters opposed.

“Our thoughts are with her family and all who loved her. Now Australia must move forward,” said Australian Greens Party leader, a prominent republican.

“We need Treaty with First Nations people, and we need to become a Republic,” he wrote on Twitter.

Bandt was accused, even by some fellow republicans, of being disrespectful by bringing up the issue just hours after the queen’s death.

“Not the right time to call for a republic irrespective of where you sit on the monarchy/ republic spectrum. Not respectful after her long life of service,” one of Bandt’s followers said in response to the tweet.

Bandt’s office did not immediate respond to an email seeking comment.

The Australian Republic Movement also offered condolences while noting that the queen had backed Australia’s right to become a fully independent nation during the 1999 referendum, saying she had affirmed it was “an issue for the Australian people and them alone to decide.”

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has spoken in support of moving toward a republic. But on Friday he said: “Today’s a day for one issue and one issue only, which is to pay tribute to Queen Elizabeth II.”

Similar debates are occurring in the Caribbean, where Jamaica has signaled it may soon follow Barbados in ditching royal rule.

(Reporting by Praveen Menon; Editing by William)

Special Report-How U.S. Regulators Allow Ethanol Plants to Pollute More Than Oil Refineries


 Green Plains' Otter Tail ethanol manufacturing plant is seen at night

 in Fergus Falls, Minnesota, U.S., October 24, 2020. Picture taken October 24, 2020. 

REUTERS/Bing Guan/

By Leah Douglas

 Reuters
Sept. 8, 2022

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In 2007, the U.S. Congress mandated the blending of biofuels such as corn-based ethanol into gasoline. One of the top goals: reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

But today, the nation’s ethanol plants produce more than double the climate-damaging pollution, per gallon of fuel production capacity, than the nation’s oil refineries, according to a Reuters analysis of federal data.

The average ethanol plant chuffed out 1,187 metric tons of carbon emissions per million gallons of fuel capacity in 2020, the latest year data is available. The average oil refinery, by contrast, produced 533 metric tons of carbon.

The ethanol plants’ high emissions result in part from a history of industry-friendly federal regulation that has allowed almost all processors to sidestep the key environmental requirement of the 2007 law, the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), according to academics who have studied ethanol pollution and regulatory documents examined by Reuters. The rule requires individual ethanol processors to demonstrate that their fuels result in lower carbon emissions than gasoline.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is charged with writing the regulations to meet the goals set by Congress. For processors, that translates to an EPA requirement that the plants use certain emissions-control processes the agency assumes will result in lower-than-gasoline emissions.

But the agency has exempted more than 95% of U.S. ethanol plants from the requirement through a grandfathering provision that excused plants built or under construction before the legislation passed. Today, these plants produce more than 80% of the nation’s ethanol, according to the EPA.

Among the five biggest polluters in 2020, per gallon of fuel capacity, were plants owned by Archer-Daniels-Midland Co, Golden Triangle Energy, Central Indiana Ethanol, Green Plains Inc and Marquis Energy, according to the Reuters analysis. Plants operated by major energy companies POET LLC and Valero Energy Corp were among the top 15.

 For a graphic showing the top five dirtiest ethanol refineries, click here: https://www.datawrapper.de/_/MVaMG 

Green Plains, Marquis and POET said that ethanol is cleaner than gasoline, despite higher plant-level emissions, when all factors are considered, including emissions from fuel consumption in vehicles. The other companies did not respond to requests for comment.

Some of the exempted plants produced much less pollution, including some owned by the same companies producing the highest emissions. The EPA said about a third meet the law’s environmental standard even though they are not required to do so. But as a group, the plants freed from regulation produced 40% more pollution per gallon of fuel capacity, on average, than the plants required to comply, the Reuters analysis found.

The EPA’s resolve to rein in ethanol emissions faces a new test this year as Congressional mandates for expanding biofuels expire, placing the future of the RFS at the agency’s discretion. The EPA is expected to propose regulatory changes later this year but has yet to publicly detail any proposed revisions.

White House representatives of Democratic U.S. President Joe Biden, who has vowed to aggressively fight climate change, did not comment on the Reuters findings on ethanol emissions. In response to Reuters inquiries, the EPA said it has followed the intent of Congress in implementing the biofuels law, including the regulatory exemptions. The agency acknowledged the higher production emissions of ethanol, compared to gasoline, but asserted that ethanol is cleaner overall.

The agency also touted ethanol’s benefits on rural economies and national security. “Renewable fuels help diversify our nation’s energy supply, improving energy independence and security,” the agency said, adding that biofuels provide “good paying jobs and income to farming communities.”

Ethanol industry representatives have recognized the need to lower the biofuel’s carbon emissions, and biofuel producers have been investing in projects that would capture plants’ carbon emissions and bury them permanently underground.

The leading ethanol industry group maintains, however, that ethanol is cleaner than gasoline. “Ethanol offers a significant and immediate carbon savings,” said Geoff Cooper, president of the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), in a statement to Reuters.

Other industry observers say the RFS has utterly failed to meet its stated environmental goals. The ethanol mandate was “just a mistake,” said Timothy Searchinger, a senior researcher at Princeton University’s Center for Policy Research on Energy and the Environment. “We created a terrible model.”

DISPUTED GOVERNMENT RESEARCH

Ethanol does have a key environmental advantage over gasoline: It burns cleaner in cars. The problem, biofuels researchers have found, is that those gains are offset by the pollution from planting corn and refining it into fuel.

Researchers from industry, government and academia seek to account for all these dynamics in estimating ethanol’s pollution throughout its full “life cycle” -- from farms to processing plants to automobile tailpipes.

The Reuters analysis examined one major part of that cycle - ethanol processing - based on the emissions data that most plants are required to report to the EPA. The data provides the only view of ethanol emissions tied to individual processors, allowing for comparisons among ethanol plants subject to the emissions-reduction regulation, those exempt from it, and their counterparts in oil refining.


Government and academic researchers have also sought to estimate the industry’s overall pollution, but they have come to sharply contrasting conclusions.

A growing consensus of academics has found that, considering all phases of the fuel’s life cycle, ethanol produces more carbon than gasoline - not less. A study published by the National Academy of Sciences in February, for example, estimated that ethanol produces 24% more carbon.


The EPA’s methodology, by contrast, has hewed closer to the findings of industry-commissioned studies, which assert that ethanol produces as much as 40% less lifecycle emissions than gasoline. The EPA has used a controversial methodology to estimate the ethanol industry’s life-cycle emissions that has effectively ensured the industry’s continuing regulatory compliance. The model greatly underestimates the industry’s pollution from corn agriculture, four academic researchers of ethanol told Reuters.

The EPA methodology relies in part on the work of a researcher from Purdue University in Indiana, whose model the agency selected at the ethanol industry’s suggestion, regulatory documents show.

The RFA said the Reuters analysis of processing-plant pollution inappropriately focused on only one aspect of the industry’s pollution profile and disputed the findings of independent academic researchers showing the overall life-cycle emissions of ethanol are higher than gasoline. Cooper, the association’s president, concluded that “the science is clear,” showing overall ethanol emissions are “40-50% lower than gasoline.”

EXEMPTIONS FOR POLLUTERS

The ethanol industry’s high emissions are caused in part by the exemptions the EPA has granted to almost all ethanol plants, academic researchers said.

The law requires that the ethanol industry demonstrate that the fuel delivers a 20% reduction in carbon emissions compared with gasoline. The percentage is based on the EPA’s model for estimating emissions from all phases of the fuel’s life cycle, including agricultural and fuel consumption. But individual processing plants can meet the standard by agreeing to certain EPA-stipulated emissions-control practices.

Congress initially required the exemptions, but the EPA had broad authority to interpret the law. Several environmental groups asked the agency early on to set an expiration date for the exemptions, or to terminate exemptions for plants that are substantially upgraded or expanded. The agency declined, regulatory records show. The EPA argued in documents outlining the final rule in 2010, for example, that terminating an upgraded plant’s exemption status would require an agency evaluation that would be too “time consuming.”

The legacy of the exemptions is apparent at the Vantage Corn Processors ethanol plant, a hulking complex of steel silos, storage tanks and brick factory buildings that dominates the riverfront in downtown Peoria, Illinois, near the heart of the U.S. corn belt.

The facility was among the dirtiest U.S. ethanol plants, according to a Reuters analysis of EPA data. The plant cranked out more than 3,600 metric tons of carbon dioxide - seven times more than the average oil refinery - for every million gallons of fuel produced.

The plant was owned in 2020 by ADM, the multinational food processor and agricultural trader, and was purchased the following year by BioUrja Group, a global energy firm. BioUrja’s chief operating officer, Shék Jain, said the data analyzed by Reuters reflects emissions under ADM ownership and that his company is making the plant more efficient. ADM did not comment.

The Peoria plant is among 240 of 251 U.S. ethanol production facilities that are exempted from emissions-reduction requirements, EPA data show.

Reuters analyzed 165 of the exempted facilities, those for which both production and emissions data were available. The remaining facilities are not required by federal law to report their pollution levels because their carbon emissions were below 25,000 metric tons annually. Generally, that indicates they are small processing facilities.

While the small number of ethanol plants subject to regulation produce 40% less pollution than the exempted plants, they still produce more pollution, on average, than oil refineries, the Reuters analysis found. Ethanol plants complying with the rule produced an average of 860 metric tons of carbon per millions of gallons of fuel capacity, compared to 533 tons at the average oil refinery. The average exempted ethanol plant produced 1,203 tons of carbon.

The grandfathered facilities produced 4.8 million tons more carbon emissions than they would have if they had been required to comply with the standard, according to a Reuters calculation based on the average emissions from regulated and unregulated plants. That’s equivalent to the emissions of more than a million cars.

INDUSTRY-FRIENDLY ASSUMPTIONS

The U.S. government has maintained that ethanol produces less pollution than gasoline despite the growing body of independent research showing the opposite. The EPA bases its claim that ethanol benefits the climate on calculations made nearly 15 years ago using a handful of scientific models. The models include one that was recommended to the agency by the Renewable Fuels Association, agency documents show.

When Congress passed the RFS, it required the EPA to model ethanol’s emissions profile to verify it could meet the emissions-reduction standard. The EPA’s first pass at the calculation in 2009, however, found that ethanol would result in a 5% increase in greenhouse gas emissions over gasoline, which would have barred the fuel from the blending mandates.

Industry groups including the RFA bristled at the calculation and urged the agency to change the formula. The industry recommendations included adopting a model maintained by the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) at Purdue University to estimate the pollution generated by planting corn for ethanol, EPA records of the debate show.

The EPA redid its modeling and used GTAP to test its results, according to a 2010 Congressional Research Service report. It concluded ethanol’s emissions were 21% lower than gasoline - putting the biofuel just barely over the 20% threshold for RFS compliance.

The agency told Reuters that it did not make the modeling change solely at the industry’s request, but rather included input from “government, academia, industry, and not-for-profit institutions.”

The Purdue model’s approach to estimating agricultural emissions has been disputed by academics.

The bulk of ethanol emissions are produced when new land is tilled for corn production, releasing carbon that is stored in soil and roots. Two biofuel experts told Reuters that the team working on the Purdue model has steadily reduced its estimate of how much carbon is released from tilled land over the years, making ethanol appear more climate-friendly. For instance, the model has been adjusted over the past decade to overstate increases in corn yields, resulting in an underestimate of emissions from planting, according to a study published in 2020 by the Journal of Cleaner Production, an academic publication focused on sustainability.

The changes raise concerns about the model’s credibility and result in a “really lowball estimate” for agricultural emissions from ethanol, said Stephanie Searle, director of the fuels program at the International Council on Clean Transportation, a nonprofit research organization.

The Purdue model is led by Dr. Farzad Taheripour, a researcher and professor of agricultural economics. Taheripour said the model was modified over time to reflect real-world observations of how biofuels production has affected land use. For instance, early scholarship on ethanol regulation suggested the RFS would lead to deforestation, which did not occur, he said.

Taheripour has received research funding from several biofuels industry trade groups since 2012, including the Renewable Fuels Association, National Corn Growers Association, Indiana Corn Soybean Alliance, and National Biodiesel Board, according to a Reuters review of his research funding disclosures.

Reuters was not able to determine the total amount of industry grants Taheripour has collected or the amount he may have received from other sources. Taheripour said his funding sources do not affect his research methods or outcomes.

LAND CONVERSION

When Congress passed the RFS, it barred farmers from planting previously uncultivated acres with corn for ethanol, a measure intended to limit carbon emissions. And biofuels supporters often point to the fact that overall U.S. corn acreage has stayed relatively stable since the passage of the biofuels law in 2007.

Some scientists counter that corn planting would have dropped significantly without the government biofuels mandate. In the 25 years before the law’s passage, corn acreage declined nearly 7%, due in part to increasing yields per acre.

Moreover, corn acreage statistics do not account for millions of acres of corn for ethanol being planted on new lands -- the result of another EPA regulation that relaxed restrictions on the industry.

During its initial RFS rulemaking, the agency allowed new corn planting for ethanol on land enrolled in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), which pays farmers a monthly rent to keep fragile land idle.

Since then, farmers have planted about 5 million acres of conserved land with corn for ethanol, according to the National Academy of Sciences study. All that planting comes with “a carbon cost,” said Tyler Lark, a scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment and the study’s lead author.

Taheripour dismissed the idea that the ethanol industry’s new corn plantings produced much pollution.

“CRP land is nothing but unused cropland,” Taheripour said. “Unused land does not have the capability to capture lots of carbon.”

The USDA has for years claimed otherwise – that unused farmland in its CRP program soaked up massive amounts of carbon. Touting the program as a major solution to climate change, the department estimated between 2006 and 2017 that such lands contained about 1.4 metric tons of carbon per acre, on average.

Asked about the climate benefits of CRP land for this story, however, the USDA told Reuters it had recently lowered its estimate of carbon in such lands by nearly half, to 0.8 metric tons per acre, after reviewing updated data.

Given the scientific disputes surrounding ethanol, industry and governmental claims of a major climate benefit are dubious, said Rich Plevin, an environmental consultant and former researcher at the University of California-Berkeley who has studied biofuels emissions.

“Did the policy achieve anything? I think it’s really hard to claim that it did for the environment,” he said. “The best we can say is, no one really knows.”

(Reporting by Leah Douglas; editing by Richard Valdmanis and Brian Thevenot)

Copyright 2022 Thomson Reuters.

SEE

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for ETHANOL 

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for ADM 

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for CORN 

 Germany fears a wave of insolvencies

Prices for gas and electricity are exploding, driving companies into bankruptcy. As recession looms large, Economy Minister Robert Habeck has announced protection for German companies.

Germany may be heading into a recession

Bread, rolls, cakes, and cupcakes — that is what the Plaz bakery is famous for. Baker Tobias Plaz in Eutingen, a village near Stuttgart in southwestern Germany, says: "We are a classic artisan bakery where products straight out of the oven are sold fresh at the counter in the front of the shop."

The family business was founded in 1890, and Plaz is a fourth-generation master baker. Just last year, he completely remodeled his store; now, customers can see through a glass window into the bakery in the back and watch the production while they wait to be served at the counter.

Germany boasts 300 different types of bread

But right now, Tobias Plaz no longer knows whether he can stay in business. At the end of August, he received mail from his gas supplier. Instead of the previous €721 ($719) per month, he will now have to pay €2,588 for heating and hot water from October 1, 2022. That doesn't even include the costs for the baking oven. Plaz has a gas contract that secures delivery at the old price until the end of the year.

But if the gas prices continue to rise the baker may well be looking at an annual gas bill of €42,000 for the oven alone, up from currently €12,000.

The baker posted his gas supplier's letter on Facebook and Instagram with the comment: "We want to share this with you so that you understand why we have to adjust the prices for our baked goods."

The price of electricity and the cost of raw materials will also rise, he writes, adding, "Where will it end? Dear politicians in Stuttgart and Berlin, when will you finally wake up and come to your senses?"

One in three companies faces an existential threat

The baker's message seemed to go unheard. The relief package that the center-left federal government of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and the business-oriented Free Democrats (FDP) announced just last week, was aimed primarily at private households. Businesses feel left out in the cold, so many are lashing out at the government with scathing criticism. Siegfried Russwurm, President of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), spoke of "considerable shortcomings and loopholes in the relief package."

The BDI conducted a survey of industrial companies. It shows that 58% of the companies describe the exploding energy costs as "a big challenge," and 34% say this is threatening their very existence. According to the BDI, almost one in ten companies in Germany has already cut back or even suspended production.

Steel production requires so much energy, it is not viable anymore in Germany

Who is going to pay the high prices?

This also applies to the skilled trades. "Every day, we receive emergency calls from businesses that are on the verge of shutting down production — partly because these enormous energy price increases can no longer be compensated for by price increases for the customers," warns Hans Peter Wollseifer, president of the German Confederation of Skilled Crafts in an interview with several newspaper reporters. He warned that Germany may see more bankruptcies now than it did during the COVID-19 pandemic.

There are fresh examples every day: Toilet paper manufacturer Hakle has filed for insolvency, pointing to the increase in production costs, which could not be absorbed by retail prices. The steel company Arcelor Mittal has stopped two production plants in northern Germany and put its employees on furlough, so the state unemployment insurance will step in and pay their wages.

During the COVID pandemic, Germans were hoarding toilet paper. 

Now Hakle, a main manufacturer, has been forced into insolvency by rising gas prices

Germany faces recession

If a company ceases production, this usually has far-reaching consequences for other sectors of the economy. A case in point is that of Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz in Saxony-Anhalt, which can no longer afford to operate its ammonia plants and has therefore shut them down. This has led to a shortage in "AdBlue," the urea solution that purifies exhaust gases emitted by diesel vehicles. If a vehicle runs out of the fluid, its engine won't restart until the AdBlue tank is refilled — so transport of goods may also grind to a halt.

Economists reckon that Germany is heading for a recession — a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters — comparable to the economic collapse in the COVID pandemic. Business associations are unanimous in their demand that the German government should immediately initiate relief programs and find hardship solutions for the economy.

The German government is increasingly under pressure. Just how much became clear this week when the visibly exhausted Economy Minister appeared during a TV interview. On public broadcaster ZDF, Robert Habeck was asked whether he feared a wave of insolvencies. In an obvious attempt to make the situation seem less dramatic, he spoke incoherently, leaving his audience wondering whether the minister understood what insolvency entails.

Two days later, speaking in the federal parliament, the Bundestag, he promised more support for the business sector. "We will protect small- and medium-sized companies," he said, announcing aid payments for the fall and winter, comparable to the assistance provided during the coronavirus pandemic. From October, companies that are forced to cut back production to save gas will begin to see financial compensation, Habeck said.

The financial assistance is planned for a limited time period to tide companies over until European efforts to curb high electricity and gas prices take effect, Habeck announced.

But will that be enough? Steffen Müller, a professor at the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Halle (IWH), points out that rising energy prices, as well as skyrocketing interest rates on loans, are not a temporary phenomenon, but will remain in place for the medium and long term.

"In such a situation, short-term aid programs primarily postpone the problems for a few months — at the expense of the taxpayer," Müller wrote in response to a DW inquiry. "Measures that lower energy prices for a while are not sensible, as they take away incentives to save energy, and that's exactly what we can't afford."

It makes more sense, he believes, to provide low-interest loans specifically for the purpose of converting to energy-saving production processes.

"Energy prices will not fall back to the levels of recent years even after this winter. So we will see a "structural change toward a greener industry that is being accelerated by the crisis," noted Müller, pointing out that the state can help companies in this transition.

This article was originally written in German.

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• Date 08.09.2022

#KASHMIR IS #INDIA'S #GAZA

Domestic woes force Pakistan to put Kashmir on the back burner

For decades, Pakistan has been providing "diplomatic" help to separatists in India-administered Kashmir, but the support has waned considerably in the past few years due to rising economic and political turmoil at home.

Since 9/11, Islamabad has found it increasingly difficult to back Kashmiri 

separatists, say analysts

Pakistan has long supported Kashmiri separatists in their quest to gain "independence" from India. Islamabad says the help is only diplomatic and moral, but New Delhi claims that its neighboring Islamic country provides military and logistical backing to militants in the region.

India and Pakistan have been at loggerheads over the Himalayan region since they gained independence from British rule in 1947. Both South Asian countries rule parts of Kashmir but claim the region in its entirety. They have also fought several wars over the territory.

In 2019, New Delhi abrogated Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which had allowed the region limited autonomy. India claimed that Kashmir's semi-autonomy had been a "root cause" of anti-India militancy. It also said that its decision would improve the economic and social development of Kashmir, and embarked on a major political makeover of the Muslim-majority region.

Pakistan had a largely muted response to the Indian move. Experts said this could be a result of the political and economic turmoil the country has been grappling with for some years.

Pakistan's economic woes

On September 1, the first death anniversary of Syed Ali Shah Geelani, a pro-Pakistan separatist leader in India-administered Kashmir, passed quietly despite calls for regionwide strikes from separatist groups.

For many people, the relative silence on Geelani's death anniversary shows that Pakistan's influence in Kashmir is declining.

There is a perception among pro-Pakistan sections in the region that Islamabad is no longer in a position to help them. At the same time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been able to assert his political power in India-administered Kashmir.

"There are indications that Pakistan has drifted away from Kashmir. Pakistan's anti-India Kashmir rhetoric is no longer so potent," Parvez Rather, a Srinagar resident, told DW.

While India is progressing economically, Pakistan's financial woes have aggravated in the past few years. Inflation data from July showed Pakistan's Consumer Price Index surged nearly 25% compared to last year, with people struggling to bear the soaring costs of basic essentials like food and energy.

The economic turmoil is putting heavy pressure on Pakistan's new government, which recently secured a bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stave off a disastrous default on foreign debt.

It is only natural that Islamabad can no longer afford to spend its energies on the Kashmir conflict.

Islamabad on a backfoot

Former Pakistani PM Imran Khan has been holding massive public rallies since his ouster from power in April. Khan accuses his country's powerful military generals of conspiring with the opposition parties to topple his government, a claim denied by the Pakistani Army. But due to Khan's rhetoric, many of his supporters have openly turned against the military.

"The political chaos is on the rise in Pakistan. This has disillusioned those Kashmiris who see Pakistan as a state that can help them," Ajai Sahni, a counterterrorism expert and executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management, New Delhi, told DW.

"There are still some Pakistan supporters in the region, but their enthusiasm has substantially gone down," he added.

But Pakistan's struggles with its involvement in the Kashmir conflict go back further. Since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the US, Islamabad has found it increasingly difficult to back Kashmiri separatists, said security analysts.

"After 9/11, Pakistan has been under pressure from the international community to fight terrorism, but that in turn has helped the Indian position," Sahni argued.

According to anthropologist Ather Zia, it does not mean that Indian repression and human rights abuses in Kashmir have declined.

"Indian policies have been emboldened by anti-Muslim geopolitics that show the Kashmiris' struggle in a poor light," Zia, a professor at the University of Northern Colorado Greeley, US, told DW.

 

KASHMIR: TOURISM REBOUND OFFERS HOPE TO BUSINESSES HIT HARD BY LOCKDOWNS
Heavy tourist influx in 2021
The heavy influx of tourists this year has given new cheer to the people of India-administered Kashmir. It is a dramatic change for the tourism industry in the disputed region, which faced the double whammy of the coronavirus pandemic and harsh curbs on civil rights New Delhi imposed in the region in August 2019. 1234567

A blessing in disguise?

Pakistan's backing for Kashmiri separatists has also proven to be a double-edged sword for the locals. Many experts in India and Pakistan are of the view that Islamabad hijacked the indigenous Kashmiri movement and infused militarism in it. Thus, a largely political movement has lost its credibility internationally.

On the international stage, New Delhi has used Pakistan's alleged military backing to discredit Kashmiris' political struggle, a human rights activist in Srinagar, who asked not to be named, told DW.

He lamented that the Kashmiri civil society never questioned Pakistan's role in the region.

Sahni believes that Kashmir needs a political solution now. "The security has improved in the region. Now it is time for a political resolution, but we don't see a willingness among the [PM Modi's] Bharatiya Janata Party's government to achieve it," he said.

Some locals are of the view that Pakistan's relative disassociation from the Kashmir conflict could be a blessing for the political movement there.

"Pakistan has exploited us for 30 years; suddenly it can't abandon us," a university student in Srinagar told DW on condition of anonymity. "They must tell us whether they want to help us or we should deal with New Delhi on our own," she added.

Analyst Ather Zia said that Pakistan and India should stop using Kashmiris as a "bargaining chip," adding that it is time that Kashmiris find their own solutions.

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru

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