The growing risk of global disorder

Mohamed A. El-Erian

December 19, 2023


The Western-led global economic order had a bad 2023. Surprisingly, the primary cause was not the emergence of an alternative order led by China, as some had anticipated. Instead, it was internal stress that led to more doubts around the world about its effectiveness and legitimacy.

But a new international order is unlikely to emerge anytime soon. Instead, as more and more countries decide to self-insure by building alternatives to the Western-led order, the global economy risks increasing fragmentation, eroding America’s leadership role and accelerating a system-wide shift toward disorder.

To be sure, doubts about the Western-led economic order began long before 2023. Over just the past 15 years, its credibility and smooth functioning have been undermined by policy missteps that resulted in a series of disruptions. These include the 2008 global financial crisis, the growing weaponization of trade and investment sanctions, the unequal distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, central banks’ mischaracterization of inflation as “transitory,” and the consequences of the banks’ aggressive interest-rate hikes.

The multilateral system has been further undermined by its inability to tackle urgent global challenges such as climate change and overwhelming debt in the Global South. As these pressures intensify, Western-dominated institutions are increasingly viewed as ineffective and insufficiently inclusive.

Two developments, in particular, have fueled widespread frustration with the Western-led order this year. First, as is now widely documented, Russia has managed to maintain active trading relationships despite ostensibly suffocating sanctions, which restricted the country’s ability to use the SWIFT international payment system and capped the price of its oil exports. Although the ad hoc trade and payment schemes devised by Russian technocrats are far from cost-effective, they have enabled Russia to minimize the damage to its domestic economy and finance its war effort in Ukraine.

Moreover, in its efforts to circumvent Western sanctions, Russia has received support from a growing (albeit still relatively small) group of countries. The limited success of the sanctions regime has eroded the belief that countries around the world have no choice but to be part of the Western-led economic order.

Second, America’s role in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas has, for many countries, exposed the hollowness of the West’s stated commitment to upholding basic human rights and their inconsistent compliance with international law.

During my recent travels, I met many individuals who reiterated UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s stark warnings about the lack of protections for non-combatants in Gaza, the collapse of Gaza’s health system, the record death toll among United Nations’ humanitarian staff, and the imminent threats of widespread starvation, disease, civil disorder, and another mass displacement of civilians.

As US President Joe Biden recently acknowledged, millions of people around the world now believe that Israel’s response to Hamas’s mass murder of Israeli citizens on October 7 has gone too far, with Israel losing international support. At the most recent UN General Assembly vote on a ceasefire, 153 countries voted in favor and only ten against, with 23 abstentions.

A growing number of countries have lamented the impunity with which Israel has been allowed to ignore international law and bomb civilians, including thousands of women and children. Many are horrified by the warnings of Philippe Lazzarini, Commissioner-General of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, who has repeatedly described the current state of Gaza as “hell on Earth.”

As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to escalate, several countries have expressed concern that the US, by failing to restrain its closest ally, is inadvertently enabling it. The Biden administration’s decision to bypass Congress to deliver more military aid to Israel, just one day after the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, has reinforced that perception.

Regardless of one’s position on these developments, they have called into question the effectiveness and legitimacy of the Western-led international order and risk accelerating the ongoing transition from a unipolar to a multipolar global economy. As middle powers increasingly assert themselves on the world stage, they will encourage smaller Western-aligned countries to contemplate the prospect of becoming “swing states.”

Western powers must confront this threat head-on. While undoing the damage that has already been done will take time, political leaders should focus on mitigating the risk of further fragmentation and forestall a rapid descent into international disorder by strengthening the existing multilateral architecture. This effort should start by reinvigorating previous reform initiatives within key institutions, starting with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The primary focus should be on voice and representation, dismantling outdated appointment processes that benefit Western interests, and modernizing operational procedures.

These reforms are crucial to the Western-led order that has served the world well since the end of World War II. Should the current international framework be allowed to fail, it will not be replaced by a new system anchored by China but by more global disorder. Such an outcome would hurt everyone in the short term. It would also inhibit our collective ability to tackle the complex and growing long-term challenges we face.

Copyright: Project Syndicate
-- Contact us at english@hkej.com




MOHAMED A. EL-ERIAN
Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz and a member of its International Executive Committee, is Chairman of President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO.

India World Cup underscores climate impact on cricket

The combination of heat and humidity during the recent ICC Men's Cricket World Cup in India took a toll on its athletes. What is the future of cricket in a warming world?

Cricket fans cover their heads to save themselves from the heat during an Indian Premier League cricket match in Lucknow on 22 April

 (Image: Surjeet Yadav / Alamy)


Priyanka Thirumuthy

THE THIRD POLE
December 18, 2023


The cricket world watched in awe on 7 November as Australia’s Glenn Maxwell made history. While playing Afghanistan during the International Cricket Council (ICC) Men’s Cricket World Cup, the batsman became the first Australian man to achieve a double century in a one-day international match. This is especially impressive considering Maxwell collapsed in the middle of his innings, his body spasming from debilitating muscle cramps.

It was a humid evening at Mumbai’s Wankhede stadium, where the match took place. “I haven’t really done a whole lot of high-intensity exercise in the heat. It certainly got a hold of me today,” Maxwell said later.

That day, Mumbai recorded a temperature high of 34C and 84% humidity levels. Commentators remarked that it was one of the hottest days of the tournament.

When the outside temperature is hot and humid, just perspiration is not enough to cool down the body since there is no evaporation of sweatAbhiyant Tiwari, consultant at India’s Natural Resources Defense Council

The Third Pole consults Abhiyant Tiwari: “When the outside temperature is hot and humid, just perspiration is not enough to cool down the body since there is no evaporation of sweat.” Tiwari is the lead climate resilience and health consultant at India’s Natural Resources Defense Council.

With reports forecasting the continuation of South Asia’s extreme humid heat events thanks largely to climate change, experts are questioning the future of sports in such challenging conditions.

“Because of the heat [in India], there were more cases of cramps and dehydration than usual,” says CS Suresh Kumar, a former batting coach of the National Cricket Academy. “The hot weather combined with humidity meant that [the players] lost more salt … causing cramps.”
Cricketers face the heat

During the tournament’s Australia v India match at Chennai’s Chepauk stadium on 8 October, the temperature reached 33C and humidity in the evening peaked at 88%. As cited in the 2019 report “Hit for Six: The Impact of Climate Change on Cricket”, the American College of Sports Medicine recommends halting continuous exercise long before these conditions are reached: a hot, still and sunny day of 30C and 35% humidity is the college’s “black flag” threshold, at which point sporting events should be cancelled.

The New Zealand batsman Rachin Ravindra tells The Third Pole about his own experience of Chennai during October. As part of a UNICEF programme promoting gender equality in sports, Ravindra and his teammates played cricket for an hour with school children at Chepauk stadium: “When I play back home in New Zealand, I may not even sweat a little bit. But out here we were just playing with some kids for a bit and I am drenched. It is definitely a challenge.”

South Africa’s David Miller plays through humidity levels of 87% on 16 November during an ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup match at Eden Gardens Stadium in Kolkata. The American College of Sports Medicine recommends cancelling sporting events when humidity reaches 35%. (Image: Dipa Chakraborty / Alamy)

While India played New Zealand at the tournament’s semi-final in Ahmedabad, Gujarat on 15 November, Virat Kohli and Shubman Gill from the home team also suffered cramps: Gill was forced to leave the field and rest before he took to the bat again; Kohli skipped the first two practices that followed the semi-final to recover.

“When there is extreme humidity, the air tends to become thicker and it feels like you are moving through a steam bath, making it difficult to move and breathe,” says Sai Venkata Sarath Chandra, a climate and heat health research associate for the Indian Institute of Technology. “You are told to get out after 20 minutes from a steam bath, but in these matches there is no way out.”

Delayed adaptation

The “Hit for Six” report combines climate science and heat physiology to outline how increasing temperatures and frequent heatwaves are changing the sport. Such conditions make players more susceptible to poorer performance, increase the chances of match delays and make heat exhaustion and heat stroke more likely among participants.

Regarding the specific demands of cricket on the human body, the report says: “a day at the crease can be compared to running a marathon wearing helmet, gloves and pads. And when air temperature is higher than skin temperature – typically around 33-35C – only sweat can stop the body heating up. Protective clothing and high humidity make this less effective.”

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While cricket may not be the most physically intense game that is played in high temperatures, it is one of the longest. But despite the physiological challenges of playing in extreme heat and humidity, players are often pushed to continue on the field.

When Cricket Australia’s physiotherapist Nick Jones rushed to the field and attempted to help loosen Maxwell’s muscles on 7 November, the batsman told Jones he needed a break from the match. But it was later reported that Jones advised against this, because removing Maxwell and cooling him down in those conditions would have made it physiologically impossible for the batsman to rejoin.

The future of cricket

As of 6 December, 2023 is set to be one of India’s hottest years on record. October 2023 was India’s third-warmest October ever and ended with below-normal rainfall in several parts of the country.

Studies show that the frequency of days in India combining extreme heat and extreme air pollution could increase by 175% by 2050 if there is little reduction in humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions. This could mean roughly 78 such days per year.

In 2018, Cricket Australia launched its heat policy to combat the effects of climate change on the game and its players. The policy includes a heat-stress risk index, which can be used to decide whether play should proceed as normal or not. It also offers guidelines on how to manage and treat illness induced by heat stress.

Cricket’s future in India depends on acknowledging and addressing the heat challenges presented by climateAnjal Prakash, IPCC author and public policy researcher

In November, The England and Wales Cricket Board released a game-wide sustainability strategy. Similarly, it includes guidance on protecting players, spectators, volunteers and employees from extreme heat while ensuring safe gameplay.

However, other boards including the ICC and the Board of Council for Cricket in India have been slow to follow suit.

“Cricket and climate change are becoming intertwined concerns and the Indian Cricket Council’s inaction is concerning,” says Anjal Prakash. “Even players claiming to handle rising temperatures are underestimating the long-term risks.” Prakash is an author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and an associate professor at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy. “Cricket’s future in India depends on acknowledging and addressing the heat challenges presented by climate,” he adds.

RECOMMENDEDGlobal warming on course for 2.9C, UN report warns

The Third Pole speaks to Daren Ganga, a former West Indies cricket captain who now studies the impact of climate change on sport in affiliation with the University of the West Indies. He says practical solutions can be adopted: “Acclimatisation to extreme weather requires time, which is not offered in big tournaments. So, there must be adequate hydration options, more drink breaks, in-stadium cooling facilities, player jerseys made of breathable materials and, importantly, the option to postpone matches based on the heat.”

Ganga points to the cancellation of 2019’s New York City Triathlon and multiple match postponements during the Australian Open tennis tournament this year, all due to extreme weather. By contrast, Ganga says, “cricket continues to remain in denial of the effects of global warming and climate change.”

Kishida says Japan is ready to lead Asia in achieving decarbonization and energy security

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

December 19, 2023 

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged to lead efforts to simultaneously achieve decarbonization, economic growth and energy security in Asia, an ambitious goal he set Monday at a regional climate summit attended by Southeast Asian leaders.

Kishida told the summit of the Asia Zero Emission Community, or AZEC, that the initiative will create “a new, huge decarbonization market in Asia that will attract global capital.”

Decarbonization in Asia will require 4,000 trillion yen ($28 trillion), Kishida said, and promised to establish a new organization to support AZEC countries in their effort to implement policies needed to achieve carbon neutrality.

Leaders of nine member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations except Myanmar, in addition to Australia, expressed commitment to cooperate toward achieving carbon neutrality. The summit was held one day after Japan hosted a special summit Sunday commemorating 50 years of ties with ASEAN.

As part of the AZEC initiative, Japan is offering to help other members with technologies to cut emissions, including co-firing technology using ammonia or hydrogen, as well as bendable and more mobile solar panels.

Kishida said Japan will cooperate with AZEC members in setting a decarbonization roadmap and other measures, while also offering support in funding, technology and human resources by establishing the Asia Zero Emission Center in Indonesia.

Japan has achieved 20% emissions reduction and is on course to meet the targeted 46% by 2030, saying it will achieve its net-zero goal by boosting renewables as the main source of power, utilizing nuclear power and taking other measures.

Japan has faced criticism from environmental groups for not setting a timeline to stop using fossil fuel. Kishida, at the COP28 summit in Dubai, promised that Japan will end new construction at home of unabated coal fired power plants, in a show of clearer determination than in the past toward achieving net-zero.

Kishida has also pledged that Japan will issue the world’s first government transition bond with international certification. Japanese officials say Japan aims to fund 20 trillion yen ($135 billion) over the next 10 years to promote private sector investment worth 150 trillion yen ($1 trillion).

Japan will contribute to the expansion of lending capacity totaling about $9 billion through the provision of credit enhancements to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank and will also make a separate contribution of the new fund of the African Development Bank, Kishida said.

Japan promotes co-firing technology in Asia to help curb emissions

While co-firing substitutes fossil fuel for less-polluting ammonia or hydrogen, critics say it does little to cut emissions. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

TOKYO – Japan is offering to help Asia-Pacific nations curb emissions with various technologies, including a climate solution that critics say may extend the life of fossil fuel power plants.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government on Dec 18 hosted a meeting of leaders from the Asia Zero Emission Community (Azec), which includes Indonesia and Thailand, offering decarbonisation solutions such as bendable solar panels and offshore wind. One technique being promoted is co-firing, which uses less-polluting ammonia or hydrogen as a substitute for a proportion of coal or gas burned at power stations.

Japan sees co-firing as a potential emissions-reduction tool for the country, which lacks land to install renewables, and also for nations across South-east Asia that have invested in coal-fired plants that could continue to operate for decades more.

“Coal-powered plants in Asia are much younger than those in the US and Europe, making it difficult to shut them down immediately,” said Mei Makinouchi, a deputy chief researcher at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, which provides economic and policy research and analysis. Developing nations could be helped with solutions that attempt to reduce the use of coal or gas, rather than being told to “stop using all fossil fuels at once,” she said.

Critics say co-firing technology is too costly and does too little to actually reduce emissions from fossil fuel-powered electricity generation. The technology is still in development and not yet available for wide deployment. Current proposals to co-fire ammonia or hydrogen in power plants typically involve replacing only 20 per cent to 30 per cent of coal or gas burned.

Japanese manufacturers that make turbines and boilers for coal and gas plants are seeking to export such equipment that can be used with hydrogen or ammonia.

For nations with rising power demand across Asia, “coal and gas power plants are the only things that can be used to help cover the exponential growth in electricity,” said Nobuhiko Kubota, managing executive officer and general manager of corporate research and development at IHI Corporation, which began researching use of ammonia in 2013.

IHI and Japan’s top power producer Jera plan to replace as much as 20 per cent of coal with ammonia at a unit at Hekinan power plant in Aichi prefecture by the end of March.

Debate over the use of co-firing follows the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, which last week indicated continued support for the use of natural gas, even as nations committed for the first time to a transition away from fossil fuels.

Nations should aim to deploy other proven tools to decarbonize their power systems, according to the Institute for Essential Services Reform, a Jakarta-based environmental and energy think tank.

“Betting on co-firing could delay the deployment of existing zero-emission options” such as solar and wind power, said Fabby Tumiwa, executive director of the organisation, in a webinar last week.

It also remains unclear whether there will be sufficient supply chains to deploy fuels like ammonia and hydrogen at the scale that’d be required to lower power sector emissions, according to Kentaro Tamura, a programme director at Japan-based Institute for Global Environmental Studies.

“It becomes a chicken or the egg paradox,” Tamura said. “Countries could be derailed from the pathway to net zero if there isn’t cheap and ample supply of ammonia.”

 BLOOMBERG

S'pore renewable energy company investing over S$850 million to build battery plant in Japan

The company plans to establish a Japanese subsidiary as early as the first half of 2024.

Keyla Supharta |  December 19, 2023, 
 

Singapore-based renewable energy developer Gurin Energy is planning to invest 91 billion yen (S$851.7 million) to build a large energy storage facility in Japan, Nikkei reported.

The Singapore-based company intends to tap into Japan's demand for storage capacity as a result of the rapid shift to renewable energy.

Triple battery storage capacity at one site

The facility will host power plants with a total output of 500 megawatts and a storage capacity of 2,000 megawatt-hours, which is enough to charge 50,000 electric vehicles.

According to the plan, it will be brought online as early as 2028.

The storage facilities will be built on a 10-hectare to 15-hectare site which will be selected from shortlisted plots in Fukushima and Tochigi prefectures.

Meanwhile, Toshiba Mitsubishi-Electric Industrial Systems and a Nippon Koei subsidiary will work together to acquire and design the batteries.

The new site will have triple the storage capacity of a facility opened by Toyota Tsusho in Hokkaido earlier this year, which currently includes Japan's largest-scale storage battery system, power transmission, and substation facilities.

Increase in popularity

Battery storage has enjoyed increasing popularity in recent years, particularly in the U.S. and Europe.

Lithium-ion batteries for battery storage are getting cheaper— with prices decreasing 14 per cent from last year, hitting a record low of US$139 (S$185) per kilowatt-hour, according to a November report by U.S. research organisation BloombergNEF.

This was a result of a price decrease in raw materials and components as production capacity increased across all parts of the battery value chain, while demand growth fell short of some industry expectations.

BloombergNEF expected the price to drop to US$113 (S$150) per kilowatt-hour in 2025 and US$80 (S$106.5) per kilowatt-hour in 2030.

Subsidies for battery storage industry

In April this year, Japan announced that they would provide as much as 184.6 billion yen (S$1.7 billion) in subsidies to the battery energy storage industry, increasing the number of foreign companies entering the Japanese market.

For instance, Australia's Akaysha Energy, well-known for its battery storage system Waratah Super Battery, had established cooperation with Japanese trading house Itochu to develop energy storage in Japan.

Macquarie Group, an investment bank based in Australia, was also looking at investment opportunities in Japan through its battery storage business Eku Energy.

Japanese companies are also not idle.

Japanese global petroleum and metals conglomerate Eneos Holdings planned to install 300 megawatts of battery storage at its domestic oil refineries and former refinery sites.

JFE Engineering, known for its steelmaking and shipbuilding technology, also planned to develop a battery storage business.

Establishing Japanese subsidiary

Supported by New Zealand infrastructure investment company Ingratil, Gurin Energy operates solar and wind power plants in several parts of Asia, such as Indonesia and South Korea.

Gurin Energy's facilities, including projects under development, have an output amounting to 7,000 megawatts of green energy.

The Singapore-based company planned to grow a new business focusing on storing electricity extracted from renewables.

They are also planning to establish a Japanese subsidiary as early as the first half of 2024 and considering building other facilities in Japan in the medium to long term.

Speaking to Nikkei, Gurin Energy CEO Assaad Razzouk said that "curtailment"— temporarily limiting the production of renewable energy facilities to balance supply and demand— will be a key feature in Japan as the country plans to add more solar, offshore and onshore wind facilities in upcoming years.

Battery storage can be used as a regulating system, charging and discharging depending on supply and demand to prevent wasting the energy.

Top image via American Public Power Association/Unsplash

Filipino politicians, business leaders, scholars call for dialogue over South China Sea situations

(Xinhua) 10:24, December 19, 2023

MANILA, Dec. 18 (Xinhua) -- Some politicians, business leaders and scholars in the Philippines have expressed their views that the maritime issues do not comprise the sum-total of relations between the Philippines and China, and called on the two sides to strengthen dialogue and consultation.

Philippine Foreign Undersecretary Jesus Domingo, in an interview with Xinhua, noted China is one of the most important economic and business partners of the Philippines, and that their economic and trade ties are "robust."

"It is always good to take a deep breath, take a step back and look at the totality of our relationship," Domingo said.

Maynard S. Ngu, Special Envoy of the President to China for Trade, Investments and Tourism, said he agrees that the maritime issues do not comprise the sum-total of bilateral relations, adding that the two sides should continue to expand their common ground in such fields as economic and trade cooperation.

George Barcelon, President of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the tensions in the South China Sea "have been hurting the private sector and the business operations between the two countries."

"Any action that looks provocative is not healthy," Barcelon said. "It is about time to say, wait a minute, let's sit down and talk for a while."

Teresita Sy-Coson, Vice Chairperson of SM Investments Corp., said the Philippines and China are neighbors facing each other across the sea, and they need to handle disputes through peaceful negotiations.

Lucio Blanco Pitlo, research fellow at the Philippine think tank Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, voiced his concern that "the South China Sea tensions and disputes tend to dominate relations between the Philippines and China this year. And I think that is very regrettable."

The situations in the South China Sea "can affect productive and constructive ties between the two countries. We hope that this would be prevented going forward, and that trade, especially in relation to agriculture, manufacturing, and the inflow of Chinese investments and tourists in the Philippines, won't be affected negatively by the prominence of these disputes," he said.

Anna Malindog-Uy, Vice President of the Manila-based think tank Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies Institute, said the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries has achieved fruitful results, which have offered "a mix of opportunities and benefits for the Philippines."

"Maintaining a balanced relationship with China is of strategic interest to the Philippines," she said, adding that diplomatic and economic engagements are part of this balance, and disrupting them could have consequences.

Rigoberto Tiglao, former spokesperson and head of presidential office for former Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, said in his opinion article published by the Manila Times last week that Philippine President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos should make changes to the current foreign policy.

"It will be not just the biggest mistake of his presidency, but our country's most colossally destructive policy ever, blocking our growth and even worsening poverty," he said.

(Web editor: Zhang Kaiwei, Zhong Wenxing)

Philippines President Marcos says

diplomatic efforts with China heading

‘in poor direction’

Mr Ferdinand Marcos Jr said traditional diplomatic efforts were being disregarded by China in a recent interview with Japanese media. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

MANILA - Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said a "paradigm shift" was needed in how his country approaches the South China Sea issue, as diplomatic efforts with Beijing were headed "in a poor direction".

Mr Marcos, in an interview with Japanese media on Dec 16, parts of which were shared with Philippine media on Dec 18, said traditional diplomatic efforts were being disregarded by China, according to a presidential palace release.

"To this point, we have resorted to the traditional methods of diplomacy ... but we have been doing this for many years now, with very little progress," said Mr Marcos, who was in Japan for Tokyo's commemorative summit with the Association of Southeast Asian nations (Asean).

"It's time that the countries that feel that they have an involvement in this situation, we have to come up with a paradigm shift," Mr Marcos said, while reiterating the Philippines wants to avoid violent conflict.

He added his government will continue talking to its partners and come up with a joint position stating their responsibilities as far as the West Philippines Sea is concerned.

The Philippines refers to the part of South China Sea within its exclusive economic zone as the West Philippines Sea.

Last week, Manila and Beijing traded accusations over a collision of their vessels near a disputed shoal in the South China Sea as tensions over claims in the vital waterway escalate.

In addition to the Philippines, Asean members Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei have overlapping claims with China in parts of the South China Sea, a conduit for more than US$3 trillion (S$4 trillion) of annual ship-borne commerce.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016 said China's claims had no legal basis, a ruling the United States supports but Beijing rejects.

There was no immediate comment from the Chinese Embassy in Manila. REUTERS

 

Veteran Belgian politician was a spy for Chinese intelligence, report alleges

DECEMBER 18, 2023 BY JOSEPH FITSANAKIS 

A LONGTIME BELGIAN POLITICIAN worked as a spy for Chinese intelligence for at least three years, according to a joint investigation by a consortium of European news media. Until last week, the politician, Frank Creyelman, 62, was a leading member of Vlaams Belang, a far-right separatist party that draws nearly the entirety of its support from northern Belgium’s Dutch-speaking Flemish regions. In addition to seeking to separate Flanders from Belgium, Vlaams Belang opposes immigration and multiculturalism, with much of its criticism directed at Islam.

From 1995 until 2014, Creyelman served as a member of the Flemish Parliament or the Belgian Senate, representing the Antwerp Province. During that time, he became known for his pro-Russian views, which he continued to propagate in retirement. In 2021, he voiced strong skepticism against the Belgian government’s efforts to provide diplomatic, financial, and military support to Ukraine. Following his retirement from frontline politics, Creyelman became an honorary member of the Flemish Parliament. He also remained chairman of Vlaams Belang in his home city of Mechelen, a Dutch-speaking stronghold.

Last week, however, a joint investigation by the British newspaper The Financial Times, French newspaper Le Monde and German newsmagazine Der Spiegel, claimed that Creyelman worked as a spy for China for at least three years. Citing unnamed “intelligence officials from four Western countries”, the investigation claimed that Creyelman had been recruited by Daniel Woo, a case officer for China’s Ministry of State Security. Woo is believed to work out of the MSS branch in China’s far-eastern province of Zhejiang, though he has also served tours in Europe under diplomatic cover, including in Romania and Poland.

It is not known how the MSS recruited Creyelman. It appears that most of his communication with his alleged MSS handler took place via text messages. However, it is claimed that in 2019 Creyelman traveled to Sanya, a popular tourist resort in China’s Hainan Island, where he allegedly met Woo and possibly other MSS operatives. Notably, the journalists behind the investigation into Creyelman claim that they have accessed incriminating messages exchanged between Creyelman and Woo. The text messages span the period between early 2019 and late 2022.

In the text messages, Woo asks Creyelman to try to influence senior-level discussions in Belgium and elsewhere concerning China’s treatment of its ethnic Muslim populations in the Xinjiang Province. The far-right politician was also instructed to find ways to vilify and discredit European researchers and academics who were documenting China’s treatment of ethnic Muslims in Xinjiang. Woo also asked Creyelman to try to quell criticism of China’s crackdown of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong. In one message, Woo explained that China’s purpose was “to divide the US-European relationship”.

Last Friday, just hours after the allegations about Creyelman’s alleged espionage emerged, Vlaams Belang announced that it had expelled him from its ranks. In a social media post, the party’s leader, Tom Van Grieken, denounced Creyelman’s espionage as going “against the purpose and essence, even the name, of our party”. He added: “The only loyalty for nationalists can only be to their own nation”.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 18 December 2023 | Permalink

A senior American diplomat spied for Cuba for 42 years. How serious is this case?

DECEMBER 11, 2023 BY JOSEPH FITSANAKIS 

LAST WEEK THE UNITED States Department of Justice announced the arrest of Victor Manuel Rocha, 73, a former senior American diplomat, whose career included stints as ambassador and advisor to the National Security Council and the United States Southern Command. Cuban intelligence allegedly recruited Rocha when he was a student in the 1970s and inspired him to spend his entire professional life in search of opportunities to supply intelligence to Cuba —and possibly Russia and China. United States Attorney General Merrick Garland said Rocha’s case was “one of the highest-reaching and longest-lasting infiltrations” of the US government by a foreign agent. This may be an understatement.

A STORIED CAREER IN GOVERNMENT

Rocha was born in Colombia in 1950, but grew up in New York City after his mother emigrated to the United States. In 1965, the studious Rocha earned a full-ride scholarship to a prestigious boarding school in Connecticut. This enabled him to earn an undergraduate degree from Yale University in 1973, before completing master’s degrees in public administration and foreign affairs from Harvard University and Georgetown University.

After receiving his security clearance from the Department of State, Rocha relied on his advanced social skills and native command of the Spanish language to quickly rise through the ranks of the diplomatic corps. Within a decade he had served prestigious assignments in Argentina, Honduras, Italy, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic, where he held the post of deputy chief of mission. In the mid-1990s, Rocha served as deputy principal officer in the United States Interests Section in Cuba —effectively the second-in-command in Washington’s de facto embassy in Havana.

Rocha’s diplomatic career culminated with the post of ambassador to Bolivia, from which he abruptly resigned in 2002. He did so reportedly in order to pursue employment in the private sector and raise funds for his children’s college education. Prior to the end of his State Department career, however, Rocha had managed to hold posts as a Latin America adviser to the National Security Council, which is the highest executive decision-making body of the United States government. He had also served as an adviser to the United States Southern Command (USSOUTHCOM), which oversees all activities of the Department of Defense in Central and South America, including the Caribbean.

FORMING REVOLUTIONARY LEFTIST IDEALS

By 1978, when he became a United States citizen, the young Rocha had spent time in Chile. While there, he witnessed first-hand the turbulence of Chilean politics in the lead-up to the military coup of 1973, which cut short the presidency of leftist icon Salvador Allende. Washington’s role in the coup, and in the ensuing junta of General Augusto Pinochet, appears to have steered Rocha’s politics decisively to the left. It was in fact in Chile where, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Rocha was recruited by the Dirección de Inteligencia (DI, also referred to by its former acronym, DGI). Read more of this post

 AUSTRALIA

Rare smog puts Sydney on par with New Delhi as bushfires rage

A view of the Sydney Harbour Bridge shrouded in smog from nearby bushfires in Sydney, Australia December 19, 2023. ― Reuters pic

Tuesday, 19 Dec 2023 

SYDNEY, Dec 19 ― Air quality in Sydney plummeted today to levels among the world's worst as smoke from bushfires in the north blanketed the harbour city, taking large swathes into index ranges on par with New Delhi, one of the world's most crowded capitals.

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Although smog is rare in Sydney, better known for its beaches and blue skies, grey clouds hovered over the iconic Opera House and Harbour Bridge, with smoke visible in the air.

The air quality index hit 161 in areas just north of the city's downtown after 5pm (0600 GMT), reaching a level at which people are advised to avoid prolonged outdoor exercise.

But there could be relief in sight, with the Rural Fire Service (RFS) saying southerly winds should begin to dispel the smog by evening.

The smoke had drifted hundreds of kilometres south from fires burning across roughly 136,000 hectares (336,000 acres), an area almost the size of Greater London, the RFS said.

Authorities have warned of a high-risk bush fire season in Australia this summer after two quiet seasons, compared with the 2019-2020 “Black Summer” fires that destroyed an area the size of Turkey and killed 33 people.

Energy company Santos halted work on a gas project northwest of Sydney as a huge bushfire raged out of control in the Pilliga forest south of Narrabri, a town that is about 420km (261 miles) away.

“The fires in the Pilliga are of enormous concern,” a company spokesperson said in a statement. “While there is no risk to, or because of, our facilities, we have shut in our operations for the time being.”

In the Indian capital, where index levels range between 74 and 225, scientists recently planned to turn to cloud seeding to ameliorate matters. ― Reuters

 As the death toll in Gaza grows, Israeli troops' conduct is getting worse

Amid the destruction, there is a discernible overtone of disrespect, dislike and dehumanisation

THE NATIONAL
EDITORIAL

This image made from an undated video shared on X, formerly known as Twitter, shows Israeli troops trying to burn food and water supplies in the back of an abandoned lorry in Gaza. Several viral videos of Israeli soldiers behaving inappropriately in Gaza have emerged in recent days. AP

Sometimes, the difference between perception and reality can be a chasm. In late October, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while angrily denouncing critics of his country’s armed forces as “people imbued with hypocrisy and lies” went on to describe the Israeli military as the “most moral army in the world”. Events in the ruins of Gaza and the occupied West Bank call this lofty claim into question.

With each week that passes, an apparent lack of restraint on the part of Israel’s forces grows. Their actions in Gaza could arguably be described as a lethal indifference to Palestinian life or, at worst, a vengeful hostility towards nearly two million people.

The relentless nature of the Israeli operation has been exposed by a string of shocking incidents. At his weekly blessing on Sunday, Pope Francis used the word “terrorism” when referring to the reported actions of an Israeli military sniper, who Catholic leaders in Jerusalem say shot and killed two women outside a church on Saturday. Israeli attacks on the enclave’s Jabalia refugee camp and Nasser hospital in Khan Younis have since resulted in dozens more civilian deaths.

US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin disembarks from an aircraft as he arrives for an official visit to Israel yesterday. Mr Austin, given his experience and political weight, is in a strong position to explain the growing dangers in Gaza to Israel’s security establishment in a language they can appreciate. Reuters

Less lethal but troubling in their own way are a string of social media videos that have emerged, showing Israeli troops behaving in a manner that seriously questions the military’s professionalism. From soldiers in the West Bank city of Jenin using a mosque’s loudspeaker system to goad residents with Jewish prayer to online videos that show troops disrespecting private homes, trashing shops or happily using bulldozers to crush Gazans' cars, there is a discernible overtone of disrespect, dislike and dehumanisation. The wilful and unnecessary destruction of civilian property, moreover, is a war crime under international humanitarian law.

The army has promised to investigate some of these cases, but it is particularly worrying that the one incident that the military has outright described as a mistake – the gunning down by soldiers of three Israeli hostages who were waving a white flag and trying to be rescued – is the only one that has led to protests in Israel itself.

Into this deteriorating situation enters Lloyd Austin, the US Secretary of Defence, who arrived in Israel yesterday to begin a regional tour. As a senior military figure, Mr Austin knows all about the need for discipline and restraint, even in the face of appalling provocation, such as Hamas’s October 7 attacks that claimed many civilian lives. As someone who was a leading commander with US forces in Iraq, he also knows about the deadly consequences that can come from detrimental campaigns that alienate entire populations and sow the seeds for future conflict.

That risk of further violence is borne out by polling from the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research published last Wednesday. It that found that although most Palestinians remain unsupportive of Hamas, “the war increases Hamas’s popularity and greatly weakens the standing of the Palestinian Authority and its leadership”. At the same time, the “overwhelming majority condemns the positions taken by the US and the main European powers during the war and express the belief that they have lost their moral compass”.

Mr Austin, given his extensive experience and political weight, is in a strong position to explain the growing dangers in Gaza to Israel’s security establishment in a language they can comprehend. The message from Washington’s most senior soldier should be direct: enough is enough.

Published: December 18, 2023

Getting Serious About Halting Israeli Genocide

by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J. S. Davies Posted onDecember 14, 2023

On Friday, December 8, the UN Security Council met under Article 99 for only the fourth time in the UN’s history. Article 99 is an emergency provision that allows the Secretary General to summon the Council to respond to a crisis that “threatens the maintenance of international peace and security.” The previous occasions were the Belgian invasion of the Congo in 1960, the hostage crisis at the U.S. Embassy in Iran in 1979 and Lebanon’s Civil War in 1989.

Secretary General Antonio Guterres told the Security Council that he invoked Article 99 to demand an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza because “we are at a breaking point,” with a “high risk of the total collapse of the humanitarian support system in Gaza.” The United Arab Emirates drafted a ceasefire resolution that quickly garnered 97 cosponsors.

The World Food Program has reported that Gaza is on the brink of mass starvation, with 9 out of 10 people spending entire days with no food. In the two days before Guterres invoked Article 99, Rafah was the only one of Gaza’s five districts to which the UN could deliver any aid at all.

The Secretary General stressed that “The brutality perpetrated by Hamas can never justify the collective punishment of the Palestinian people… International humanitarian law cannot be applied selectively. It is binding on all parties equally at all times, and the obligation to observe it does not depend on reciprocity.”

Mr. Guterres concluded, “The people of Gaza are looking into the abyss… The eyes of the world – and the eyes of history – are watching. It’s time to act.”

UN members delivered eloquent, persuasive pleas for the immediate humanitarian ceasefire that the resolution called for, and the Council voted thirteen to one, with the U.K. abstaining, to approve the resolution. But the one vote against by the United States, one of the five veto-wielding permanent members of the Security Council, killed the resolution, leaving the Council impotent to act as the Secretary General warned that it must.

This was the sixteenth U.S. Security Council veto since 2000 – and fourteen of those vetoes have been to shield Israel and/or U.S. policy on Israel and Palestine from international action or accountability. While Russia and China have vetoed resolutions on a variety of issues around the world, from Myanmar to Venezuela, there is no parallel for the U.S.’s extraordinary use of its veto primarily to provide exceptional impunity under international law for one other country.

The consequences of this veto could hardly be more serious. As Brazil’s UN Ambassador Sérgio França Danese told the Council, if the U.S. hadn’t vetoed a previous resolution that Brazil drafted on October 18, “thousands of lives would have been saved.” And as the Indonesian representative asked, “How many more must die before this relentless assault is halted? 20,000? 50,000? 100,000?”

Following the previous U.S. veto of a ceasefire at the Security Council, the UN General Assembly took up the global call for a ceasefire, and the resolution, sponsored by Jordan, passed by 120 votes to 14, with 45 abstentions. The 12 small countries who voted with the United States and Israel represented less than 1% of the world’s population.

The isolated diplomatic position in which the United States found itself should have been a wake-up call, especially coming a week after a Data For Progress poll found that 66% of Americans supported a ceasefire, while a Mariiv poll found that only 29% of Israelis supported an imminent ground invasion of Gaza.

After the United States again slammed the Security Council door in Palestine’s face on December 8, the desperate need to end the massacre in Gaza returned to the UN General Assembly on December 12. An identical resolution to the one the U.S. vetoed in the Security Council was approved by a vote of 153 to 10, with 33 more yes votes than the one in October. While General Assembly resolutions are not binding, they do carry political weight, and this one sends a clear message that the international community is disgusted by the carnage in Gaza.

Another powerful instrument the world can use to try to compel an end to this massacre is the Genocide Convention, which both Israel and the United States have ratified. It only takes one country to bring a case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) under the Convention, and, while cases can drag on for years, the ICJ can take preliminary measures to protect the victims in the meantime.

On January 23, 2020, the Court did exactly that in a case brought by The Gambia against Myanmar, alleging genocide against its Rohingya minority. In a brutal military campaign in late 2017, Myanmar massacred tens of thousands of Rohingya and burnt down dozens of villages. 740,000 Rohingyas fled into Bangladesh, and a UN-backed fact-finding mission found that the 600,000 who remained in Myanmar “may face a greater threat of genocide than ever.”

China vetoed a referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Security Council, so The Gambia, itself recovering from 20 years of repression under a brutal dictatorship, submitted a case to the ICJ under the Genocide Convention.

That opened the door for a unanimous ruling by 17 judges at the ICJ that Myanmar must prevent genocide against the Rohingya, as the Genocide Convention required. The ICJ issued that ruling as a preventive measure, the equivalent of a preliminary injunction in a domestic court, even though its final ruling on the merits of the case might be many years away. It also ordered Myanmar to file a report with the Court every six months to detail how it is protecting the Rohingya, signaling serious ongoing scrutiny of Myanmar’s conduct.

So which country will step up to bring an ICJ case against Israel under the Genocide Convention? Activists are already discussing that with a number of countries. Roots Action and World Beyond War have created an action alert that you can use to send messages to 10 of the most likely candidates (South Africa, Chile, Colombia, Jordan, Ireland, Belize, Turkïye, Bolivia, Honduras and Brazil).

There has also been increasing pressure on the International Criminal Court to take up the case against Israel. The ICC has been quick to investigate Hamas for war crimes, but has been dragging its feet on investigating Israel. After a recent visit to the region, ICC prosecutor Karim Khan was not allowed by Israel to enter Gaza, and he was criticized by Palestinians for visiting areas attacked by Hamas on October 7, but not visiting the hundreds of illegal Israeli settlements, checkpoints and refugee camps in the occupied West Bank.

However, as long as the world is faced with the United States’ tragic and debilitating abuse of institutions the rest of the world depends on to enforce international law, the economic and diplomatic actions of individual countries may have more impact than their speeches in New York.

While historically there have been about two dozen countries that have not recognized Israel, in the past two months, Belize and Bolivia have severed ties with Israel, while others – Bahrain, Chad, Chile, Colombia, Honduras, Jordan and Turkey – have withdrawn their ambassadors.

Other countries are trying to have it both ways–condemning Israel publicly but maintaining their economic interests. At the UN Security Council, Egypt explicitly accused Israel of genocide and the U.S. of obstructing a ceasefire.

And yet Egypt’s long-standing partnership with Israel in the blockade of Gaza and its continuing role, even today, in restricting the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza through its own border crossings, make it complicit in the genocide it condemns. If it means what it says, it must open its border crossings to all the humanitarian aid that is needed, end its cooperation with the Israeli blockade and reevaluate its obsequious and compromised relationships with Israel and the United States.

Qatar, which has worked hard to negotiate an Israeli ceasefire in Gaza, was eloquent in its denunciation of Israeli genocide in the Security Council. But Qatar was speaking on behalf of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Under the so-called Abraham accords, the sheikhs of Bahrain and the UAE have turned their backs on Palestine to sign on to a toxic brew of self-serving commercial relations and hundred million dollar arms deals with Israel.

In New York, the UAE sponsored the latest failed Security Council resolution, and its representative declared, “The international system is teetering on the brink. For this war signals that might makes right, that compliance with international humanitarian law depends on the identity of the victim and the perpetrator.”

And yet neither the UAE nor Bahrain has renounced their Abraham deals with Israel, nor their roles in U.S. “might makes right” policies that have wreaked havoc in the Middle East for decades. Over a thousand US Air Force personnel and dozens of U.S. warplanes are still based at the Al-Dhafra Airbase in Abu Dhabi, while Manama in Bahrain, which the U.S. Navy has used as a base since 1941, remains the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet.

Many experts compare apartheid Israel to apartheid South Africa. Speeches at the UN may have helped to bring down South Africa’s apartheid regime, but change didn’t come until countries around the world embraced a global campaign to economically and politically isolate it.

The reason Israel’s die-hard supporters in the United States have tried to ban, or even criminalize, the campaign for Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) is not that it is illegitimate or anti-semitic. It is precisely because boycotting, sanctioning and divesting from Israel may be an effective strategy to help bring down its genocidal, expansionist and unaccountable regime.

U.S. Alternate Representative to the U.N. Robert Wood told the Security Council that there is a “fundamental disconnect between the discussions that we have been having in this chamber and the realities on the ground” in Gaza, implying that only Israeli and U.S. views of the conflict deserve to be taken seriously.

But the real disconnect at the root of this crisis is the one between the isolated looking-glass world of U.S. and Israeli politics and the real world that is crying out for a ceasefire and justice for Palestinians.

While Israel, with U.S. bombs and howitzer shells, is killing and maiming thousands of innocent people, the rest of the world is appalled by these crimes against humanity. The grassroots clamor to end the massacre keeps building, but global leaders must move beyond non-binding votes and investigations to boycotting Israeli products, putting an embargo on weapons sales, breaking diplomatic relations and other measures that will make Israel a pariah state on the world stage.

Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J. S. Davies are the authors of War in Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless Conflict, published by OR Books in November 2022.

Medea Benjamin is the cofounder of CODEPINK for Peace, and the author of several books, including Inside Iran: The Real History and Politics of the Islamic Republic of Iran. 

Nicolas J. S. Davies is an independent journalist, a researcher for CODEPINK and the author of Blood on Our Hands: The American Invasion and Destruction of Iraq.