The Techo Funan Canal Won’t End Cambodia’s Dependency On Vietnam – Analysis

 May 6, 2024

By RFA

By David Hutt

First it was the Ream Naval Base. Now it’s the Techo Funan Canal. 

Could the planned $1.7-billion waterway that will cut through eastern Cambodia – which will be built, funded and owned by a Chinese state firm – be used by Beijing to attack or threaten Vietnam? 

Phnom Penh denies this and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet reportedly had to assuage the Vietnamese leadership of this concern during a visit last December. 

Sun Chanthol, a Cambodian deputy prime minister and the former minister of public works, recently said he also tried to mollify Hanoi’s concerns about the project, formally known as the Tonle Bassac Navigation Road and Logistics System Project.

The United States has been more vocal than Vietnam in raising concerns over the Ream Naval Base in southern Cambodia, which China is extensively refurbishing and where China appears to have stationed some vessels for the past few months. 

But Hanoi’s worries about the Techo Funan Canal have leaked out in drabs from within Vietnam. 

Last month, an academic journal article by two researchers at the Oriental Research Development Institute, part of the state-run Union of Science and Technology Associations, warned that the Cambodian canal might be a “dual-use” project. 

“The locks on the Funan Techo Canal can create the necessary water depths for military vessels to enter from the Gulf of Thailand, or from Ream Naval Base, and travel deep into Cambodia and approach the [Cambodia-Vietnam] border,” they argued in a study that was republished on the website of the People’s Public Security Political Academy. 

Geopolitical implications

One ought to be skeptical. China having access to the Ream Naval Base is one thing— it is a military base. It makes sense for Beijing to want to station and refuel its vessels on the Gulf of Thailand, effectively encircling Vietnam. 

Proposed route Cambodia’s Funan Techo Canal project. Credit: EOBKR, Wikipedia Commons

But if China was thinking of attacking Vietnam, wouldn’t it be simpler for the Chinese navy to follow Cambodia’s coastline to Vietnam? Beijing presumably wouldn’t want its vessels to be stuck in a relatively narrow Cambodian canal. 

But if you can imagine Cambodia allowing the Chinese military access to its inland waterways to invade Vietnam, why not imagine Phnom Penh allowing the Chinese military to zip along its (Chinese-built) expressways and railways to invade Vietnam? 

If you are of that mindset, then Cambodia’s road or rail networks are just as much of a threat, or perhaps more so, as Cambodia’s naval bases or canals.

Nonetheless, the canal has geopolitical implications for Vietnam. 

Cambodia exports and imports many of its goods through Vietnamese ports, mainly Cai Mep. The Funan Techo Canal, by connecting the Phnom Penh Autonomous Port to a planned deepwater port in Kep province and an already-built deep seaport in Sihanoukville province, would mean that much of Cambodia’s trade no longer needs to go through Vietnam. 

Phnom Penh can justifiably say this is a matter of economic self-sufficiency. “Breathing through our own nose,” as Hun Manet put it. Phnom Penh reckons the canal will cut shipping costs by a third. 

Cambodia has a dependency on Vietnam’s ports. If Cambodia-Vietnam relations turned really sour, such as Phnom Penh giving the Chinese military access to its land, Hanoi could close off Cambodia’s access to its ports or threaten to do so, effectively blocking much of Cambodian trade – like it did briefly in 1994. 

Remove that dependency, and Vietnam has less leverage over Phnom Penh’s decision making. 

Mekong River projects

Even the environmental concerns around the canal are about geopolitical leverage. 

Vietnam is justified in fearing that Cambodia altering the course of the Mekong River—after Laos has been doing so for two decades—will affect its own already at-risk ecology. 

Fears are compounded by the lack of publicly available environmental impact assessments over the canal and the fact that the Mekong River Commission, a regional oversight body that is supposed to assess the environmental impact of these riparian projects, has become a feckless body for dialogue.  

Hanoi is no doubt concerned about its own position since it hasn’t been able to get Phnom Penh to openly publish those impact assessments. This further compounds Vietnam’s sense of weakness for having failed for more than a decade to limit how its neighbors go about altering their sections of the Mekong River, with highly deleterious impacts on Vietnam’s environment and agricultural heartlands. 

Clearly, Phnom Penh isn’t for turning on the canal project. Just this week, Hun Manet applauded apparent public support for the scheme as a “huge force of nationalism”. Phnom Penh is making this a sovereignty issue, thus making criticism a matter of state interference, a way of silencing dissent in Southeast Asia. 

It’s not all bad news for Vietnam, though. The Financial Times notedthat, according to Vietnamese analysts, even if the Techo Funan Canal goes ahead, “Hanoi retains leverage over Cambodia” because ships carrying more than 1,000 tonnes would still rely on Vietnamese ports. 

Cambodia could get around this by using smaller vessels. That would be less profitable but still doable. By my calculation, Cambodia’s exports to Vietnam have grown by more than 800% over the last six years, from $324 million in 2018 to $2.97 billion last year. 

In the first quarter of this year, Vietnam bought 22 percent of Cambodia’s goods. Exports certainly give leverage. No other single country is queuing up to start buying a fifth of Cambodia’s products. 

Trade dependency

In fact many of these Cambodian exports are re-exported by Vietnam to China, so Phnom Penh might think it can cut out the Vietnamese middleman. But it cannot. 

Arguably, Cambodia’s biggest dependency on Vietnam is that Cambodia’s economy increasingly must become integrated into Vietnam’s supply chains. 

Look around Southeast Asia in the coming decade: Laos has hydropower; Thailand has automobile manufacturing; Malaysia has semiconductor chips; the Philippines has its green economy schemes; and Indonesia has natural resources and electric vehicle batteries. The region is carving itself out into niches. 

But Cambodia seems somewhat stuck with low value-added garment production, some agricultural growth and tourism  – sectors  that depend on the health of the Chinese economy. Cambodia’s construction sector, which drove much of the growth of the past decade, is likely to struggle as a result of that sector’s  meltdown in China. 

Despite all the grand promises of Phnom Penh’s Pentagonal Strategy, a 25-year-plan to make Cambodia a high-income country, it’s hard to see the country massively improving its labor productivity, which is one of the worst in Southeast Asia. 

That means Cambodia cannot really rival its neighbors in higher-end, higher-value-added industries. And Cambodian labor isn’t that low cost anymore, and with a population much smaller than its competitors, it’s at a scale disadvantage. 

This all leaves Cambodia dependent on serving Vietnam’s supply chains.  

• David Hutt is a research fellow at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS) and the Southeast Asia Columnist at the Diplomat. He writes the Watching Europe In Southeast Asia newsletter. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of RFA.

Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet. Photo Credit: pressocm.gov.kh

RFA
Radio Free Asia’s mission is to provide accurate and timely news and information to Asian countries whose governments prohibit access to a free press. Content used with the permission of Radio Free Asia, 2025 M St. NW, Suite 300, Washington DC 20036.

 

Morocco’s Automotive Boom: A Model Of Economic Growth And Sustainable Development – OpEd

 May 6, 2024  

By Said Temsamani

In the competitive landscape of global automotive exports, Morocco has emerged as a powerhouse, surpassing economic giants like China, Japan, and India to become the leading exporter to the European Union (EU). This meteoric rise is not merely fortuitous but the result of strategic investments, astute policies, and a relentless drive for excellence by the Moroccan government and its partners.

At the heart of Morocco’s automotive success story lies a robust infrastructure of modern factories, industrial parks, and a skilled workforce. These pillars, coupled with low production costs, have propelled Morocco’s annual vehicle production to unprecedented heights. In the northern region alone, over 535,000 cars were produced last year, signaling the country’s formidable industrial prowess.

The economic impact of Morocco’s automotive sector is undeniable. With a contribution of $13.7 billion to the economy, the sector has become a key driver of growth and prosperity. Notably, exports saw a remarkable growth of over 30% in 2023, underscoring the industry’s resilience and competitiveness on the global stage.

Morocco’s strategic location, just 14 kilometers from Spain, has positioned it as Europe’s gateway to Africa, offering unrivaled access and connectivity. This geographical advantage, combined with a concerted effort to enhance infrastructure and streamline trade agreements, has cemented Morocco’s status as a pivotal player in the automotive industry.

Moreover, the Moroccan government’s proactive approach to regulatory reforms, as outlined in the Investment Charter and the Industrial Acceleration Plan 2014-2020, has created an environment conducive to investment and innovation. As a result, multinational corporations like Neo Motors, Snop, Renault, Dacia, and Stellantis have flocked to Morocco, drawn by its business-friendly policies and market opportunities.

In parallel with its economic achievements, Morocco is committed to social inclusion and environmental sustainability. Efforts to narrow the gender gap in the automotive sector have yielded tangible results, with integration rates steadily rising. Furthermore, Morocco’s embrace of electric vehicle production aligns with global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change, positioning the country as a leader in green technology and innovation.

As Morocco continues to chart its course towards economic prosperity and sustainability, its automotive sector stands as a beacon of progress and potential. With a relentless focus on innovation, inclusivity, and environmental stewardship, Morocco exemplifies the transformative power of visionary leadership and strategic planning in driving economic growth and societal advancement.

Kenitra automobile manufacturing facility in Morocco. Photo Credit: Stellantis

Said Temsamani is a Moroccan political observer and consultant, who follows events in his country and across North Africa. He is a member of Washington Press Club.

US has long history of college protests: Here's what happened in the past


Kayla Jimenez
USA TODAY

Pro-Palestinian demonstrators have taken over parts of college campuses across the U.S., the latest in a decades-long string of protests ignited by political activism — some of which have spiraled into violence amid police crackdowns.

In the past, free speech sit-ins quickly escalated into massive rallies, Vietnam War college demonstrations turned deadly and U.S. civil rights protests ended in mass arrests.

The circumstances of each protest were different, but the story is familiar: Young people demanded changes on their campuses or in the world — and their impassioned demonstrations often escalated amid clashes with authorities.

Columbia, the university at the center of the current wave of protests, has even seen similar protests before, including during the Vietnam War in 1968. Demonstrations led the university to end classified war research and stop military recruitment, among other changes, wrote Rosalind Rosenberg, a professor of history at Barnard College, for Barnard Magazine.

Today's demonstrators also have specific changes in mind, often involving divestment from Israel, citing the deaths of more than 34,000 Palestinian people who died in Gaza amid Israel's bombardment and ground assault. That military campaign was triggered by Hamas' incursion into southern Israel on Oct. 7, when about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed and more than 240 people were taken hostage.

But as campus authorities react swiftly, citing safety concerns and calling in police to break up encampents, it's unclear if or how the current protests will influence the Israel-Hamas war.

USA TODAY revisited four monumental campus protests to explain how college protests have become a staple of American life and often influence the outcomes of political strife. Here's a look at how previous campus protests unfolded — and whether they were successful in their causes.

University of California, Berkeley: Free Speech in 1960s

At the University of California Berkeley starting in 1964, students protested the university's limits on political activities and free speech during the civil rights movement and Vietnam-war era.

"In the wake of McCarthyism’s anti-Communist sentiments during the 1950s, public universities in California had enacted numerous regulations limiting students’ political activities," wrote Karen Aichinger for the Free Speech Center at Middle Tennessee University. "At the University of California, Berkeley, student groups taking part in any on- or off-campus political activities were banned from campus."

What transpired were "small sit-ins and demonstrations" that "escalated into a series of large-scale rallies and protests demanding full constitutional rights on campus," reads the UC Berkeley website.

Nearly 800 students were arrested by local police as a result.

The students' protest ultimately worked in their favor. The university eventually overturned policies that would restrict the content of speech or advocacy, according to the college.


"Today, the Movement stands as a symbol of the importance of protecting and preserving free speech and academic freedom," reads the UC Berkeley website.
Kent State University in Ohio: Vietnam War in 1970

The most prolific university protest of the Vietnam War happened at Kent State University in Ohio in May 1970. Students started protesting the Vietnam War and the U.S. invasion of Cambodia on their campus on May 2. Two days later, the National Guard opened fire into a sea of antiwar protesters and passerbys. The soldiers killed four young people – Allison Krause, Jeffrey Miller, Sandra Scheuer, and William Knox Schroeder – and injured several others with their violence.

"The impact of the shootings was dramatic," wrote Jerry Lewis and Thomas Hensley in an article for Kent State University. "The event triggered a nationwide student strike that forced hundreds of colleges and universities to close."


The shootings also influenced national politics, Lewis and Hensley wrote.

"In The Ends of Power, (H.R.) Haldeman, (a top aide to President Richard Nixon), states that the shootings at Kent State began the slide into Watergate, eventually destroying the Nixon administration," the article reads.

Today, the protest and shootings "certainly come to symbolize the deep political and social divisions that so sharply divided the country during the Vietnam War era," Lewis and Hensley wrote.

Jackson State College in Mississippi: Racial Injustice in 1970

Days after the shootings at Kent State, police opened gunfire at a college dormitory Jackson State College in Mississippi, a school with a predominantly Black student population.

Black students there were protesting racial injustice, including how they were treated by white drivers speeding on campus, according to the university.


Police received a call that Black young people were throwing rocks at white drivers near the campus. Police arrived at the scene and shot hundreds of bullets into Alexander Hall, according to an FBI report, NPR reported. Police killed two students – Phillip Lafayette Gibbs and James Earl Green – and injured 12 others. The college also canceled its graduation due to the killings and unrest.

At a 2021 commencement ceremony, the university honored 74 of the students who were unable to walk the stage in 1970, NBC reported. At the commencement ceremony, Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba said police “unjustly gunned down two innocent young Black men, terrorized and traumatized a community of Black students and committed one of the gravest sins in our city’s history," NBC reported.


The killings at Jackson State College and Kent State University national sparked outrage. College students across the nation protested on their campuses, according to the Zinn Education Project, a collaboration of historical content from the groups Rethinking Schools and Teaching for Change.

"The spring of 1970 saw the first general student strike in the history of the United States, students from over four hundred colleges and universities calling off classes to protest the invasion of Cambodia, the Kent State affair, the killing of two black students at Jackson State College in Mississippi, and the continuation of the war," wrote Howard Zinn in the book "You Can't Be Neutral on a Moving Train."

Angus Johnston, an adjunct assistant professor at Hostos Community College of the City University of New York and a historian of student activism, said after both events: "There was a period of about 30 years or so where it tended to be fairly unlikely that campuses would respond with mass arrests even in the case of admin building occupations."

Nationwide: South Africa anti-Apartheid protests in 1985

Another form of popular college campus protest occurred in the 1980's. Students across the country wanted their colleges to cut ties with groups that supported from the South African apartheid.

"Under apartheid, race restricted every aspect of life for South Africans who were Black, Indian and colored — a multiracial classification created by the government," The New York Times reported. "There were strict limits on where they could live, attend school, work and trave

l.


Columbia University was at the center of the movement. Students led by the Coalition for a Free South Africa at Columbia University "blockaded Hamilton Hall, the university’s administrative building, leading to the first successful divestiture campaign at the university," reads a summary of the events from the Zinn Education Project.

There was less pushback for protesters during this time, due to a “certain embarrassment among elites in the United States that there was complicity with South Africa’s white government,” said Daniel Farber, a history professor at the University of Kansas who has studied American activism, reports Vox Media.


Columbia University was one of the first colleges to divest from doing business with South Africa and 155 universities followed suit. U.S. Congress also passed the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act in 1986, which aimed to prevent new trade and investment between the nation and South Africa.
What is the future of college protests in America?

Free speech experts told USA TODAY that students should continue to peacefully protest in open campus spaces to avoid conflict.

Alex Morey, the director of campus rights advocacy for the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, encourages universities to remain neutral in times of unrest and not to call in authorities unless a demonstration turns violent. The national nonprofit defends Americans rights to free speech and thought.

"Peaceful protest is a hallmark of a healthy speech climate on American college campuses and it has been for decades – whether it's the Berkeley free speech movement, or students protesting the Vietnam War era or civil rights," Morey said. "Generations of students have felt passionately about certain issues and the open air places on campuses are great places to support their views."


Contact Kayla Jimenez at kjimenez@usatoday.com. Follow her on X at @kaylajjimenez.

 

America's Ammunition Production May Soon Be Controlled By A Foreign Buyer – Analysis

 May 6, 2024

By James Durso

In October 2023, the Czechoslovak Group (CSG), of Prague, Czech Republic, entered into a definitive agreement to buy the ammunition brands of Vista Outdoor Inc. for $1.9 billion. Vista is an outdoor sports company that specializes in outdoor products, i.e., camp equipment, and shooting sports, i.e., ammunition.

The deal would give CSG control 70% of the manufacturing capacity for ammunition primers, ownership of ammunition brands Federal,  Remington, Speer, CCI,  Hevi-Shot, and Alliant Powder, and management of the U.S. Army’s Lake City Army Ammunition Plant. The transaction was criticized by U.S. Senators J.D. Vance and John Kennedy, Representatives Mike Waltz and Clay Higgins, and the National Sheriffs Association. (CSG currently has a 70% stake in Italian munition maker Fiocchi Munizioni which is widely available in the U.S.)

In February, U.S.-based MNC Capital Partners and a private equity partner made their first offer to buy Vista for $35.00 per share in cash for both the outdoor products and ammunition pieces. The offer was rejected by the Vista board in March.)

The senators claim the deal will put a foreign company that has ties to Russia and China in control of primer production, and at the helm of the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant, a government-owned, contractor-operated producer of small arms ammunition for the U.S. government and civilian buyers.

The  acquisition must be approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and Senator Kennedy  asked Janet Yellen, the Secretary of the Treasury to ensure that CFIUS will “carefully examine national security concerns of the proposed acquisition.” 

In response to the legislators,  Michal Strnad the CEO of CSG, claimed CSG was a significant supplier to NATO countries, “has never had any ties to Putin’s regime,” only ever exported civilian products to Russia, never broke any embargoes, and has never been sanctioned. Strnad then invited Senator Vance to “visit SG member companies in the U.S. and Europe to experience first-hand who we really are.”

CSG’s American ammunition division CEO David Stepan announced that CSG had “publicly stated our pledge to maintain Vista’s manufacturing operations in the United States, led by the same topflight American management team that runs its operation today.”

“We have no plans,” Stepan added, “to move any employment or production overseas.”

On the other hand, Czech media reports a CSG subsidiary supplied surveillance radars to a Chinese airfield, and, when Michal Strnad’s father, Jaroslav, ran Excalibur Army, a CSG predecessor, the company breached  an arms embargo on Azerbaijan, according to Forbes, so CFIUS and its security service partners have some digging to do.

Assuming everyone is being high-minded here, what are next steps?

First, CRIUS must decide on CSG’s fitness as a buyer of Vista, which will mean plumbing the senators’ concerns about Russia and China connections.

The Pentagon has a vote in CFIUS and it has recently revived concerns about lack of competition in the defense sector. In a 2022 report, “State of Competition within the Defense Industrial Base,” the Pentagon identified munitions are one of five “Priority Industrial Base Sectors” and declared “Each M&A [mergers and acquisitions] case should be reviewed carefully for negative effects on competition.”

The Pentagon also reviewed the surety of its supply chains and in another recent report, “Securing Defense-Critical Supply Chains,” the department recommended action to “Mitigate Foreign Ownership, Control, or Influence (FOCI).” Looking at potential conflicts in Europe and Asia, and the ongoing resupply of Israel and Ukraine, the Defense Department may want to ensure as much ammunition production as possible is controlled by American entities.

Then, the shareholders of Vista will vote and, as many of the shareholders, such as Blackrock, are playing with someone else’s money, they won’t rush  if they can get a better, all-cash offer that is likely to be approved by the feds. In any case, Vista management understands its duty and told MNC it must improve its revised offer of $37.50 a share in cash for the ammunition and outdoor products brands.

According to Reuters, “While CSG’s proposal pays off Vista’s debt, gives shareholders $750 million in cash, and leaves perhaps $150 million for a special dividend, according to Roth analysts, that only totals up to about $15.50 per share, and investors are left owning a sub-scale outdoor business. MNC’s offer gets them $37.50 per share, cash, and a way out.”

What are some options?

CFIUS can green-light the CSG offer with no conditions, or the U.S. may allow the acquisition to proceed if CSG divests itself of enough of its new holdings that satisfies the government that marketplace competition is preserved. Or, the U.S. may require naming a proxy board to head the new companies, or a Special Security Arrangement to ensure U.S. interests in the Lake City plant are safeguarded.  

The U.S. has no beef with foreign buyers. In 2021, Colt’s Manufacturing Company of Hartford, Connecticut, the maker of the military’s M-16 and M-4 rifles, was bought by Prague-based Česká zbrojovka Group (CZ).  FN Firearms USA, a supplier to the Pentagon, is owned by Belgian FN Herstal SA. And PMC Ammunition Inc., a supplier to many police agencies, is owned by Korea’s Poongsan Corporation. This deal is foundering on elevated Pentagon and congressional concerns about competition and supply chain integrity, and ongoing resupply commitments to foreign partners.

What is the best deal for the U.S.?

The best deal for the U.S. is a higher offer from MNC so Vista’s American shareholders get more cash, and an invitation to GSG to invest that $1.9 billion in greenfield ammunition plants in the U.S. which, as new facilities, will compete with existing manufacturers and ensure government and private buyers in the U.S. get the best deal. Also investing in the U.S. may turn CSG’s challengers on the Hill into champions if the firm can create jobs in the U.S. while contributing to the robustness of America’s defense industrial base.

• This article was published at Real Clear World

Projectile Production at Scranton Army Ammunition Plant. Photo Credit: Dori Whipple, DOD

James Durso (@james_durso) is a regular commentator on foreign policy and national security matters. Mr. Durso served in the U.S. Navy for 20 years and has worked in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Central Asia.

PACIFIC BOUGAINVILLE

Canadian miner exploring for gold and copper on Bougainville

Panguna open pit copper mine in Bougainville. S Photo: 123RF

A Canadian mining company, Island Passage Development Canada Limited (IPDC) is undertaking a mining exploration programme in Bougainville.

It says its subsidiary, Island Passage Development Limited, has an exploration licence for a site in the centre of the main island in the autonomous Papua New Guiea region.

It is working jointly with local company, Isina Resources, exploring a 261 square kilometre site in south central Bougainville in the Crown Prince Range, which is close to the shut down Panguna mine.

The company said this marks the first large-scale mineral exploration programme in Bougainville outside of the Panguna development since 1965.

The company started the exploration programme in March with a team led by several Indonesian geologists who are experienced on the island and who specialise in porphyry copper geology and exploration in similar terrains and climate from around the Ring of Fire.

The company's geologists are supported by a team of over 30 Bougainvilleans who have undergone field operations training.

IPDC chief executive Donald McInnes said the world is chasing new supplies of critical and precious metals, and demand is driving gold and copper to new highs.

He said they are committed to working with the customary landowners of Bougainville through an innovative partnership to reassess the mineral potential of Bougainville and to provide a sustainable future.
Mining without a tenement

Meanwhile, the Bougainville Executive Council has endorsed 21 October as the designated date on which transitional arrangements for mining without a tenement cease.

According to section 369 of the Bougainville Mining Act, an individual Bougainvillean may, without being the holder of a mineral licence, carry out mining activities that would otherwise require the person to be the holder of a relevant mineral licence, the Bougainville government said in a statement.

However, the government's decision means that after the expiry of the designated date, any mining activity being carried out by a Bougainvillean without a mineral licence will be deemed unauthorised under law and will be subject to the offences and penalties provisions of the law.

The penalties and offences provisions include provisions for unauthorised mining, unauthorised equipment and unlawful possession of minerals to name a few.

Offenders also will risk having their gold and mining equipment confiscated and forfeited to the Bougainville gvoernment.

President and minister responsible for mineral and energy resources, Ishmael Toroama, is appealing to stakeholders to support the government towards responsible and sustainable mining sector practices.

"This includes discouraging unsustainable small-scale mining practices and providing support to small-scale miners to work in a more structured and regulated environment," he said.

"We want to mitigate the negative socioeconomic and environmental impacts caused by unauthorised mining activities and regulatory and enforcement capacity is being strengthened to achieve this."