Extreme temperatures becoming more common in Ireland, Maynooth University study finds

A temperature event of 33 degrees Celsius in Dublin’s Phoenix Park has gone from being a 1 in 180-year event in 1942 to a 1 in 9-year event in 2020, according to a new study led by Ireland's Maynooth University

MAYNOOTH UNIVERSITY

 

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TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN IRELAND 

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CREDIT: PROF ANDREW PARNELL AND DR DAIRE HEALY OF THE HAMILTON INSTITUTE AT MAYNOOTH UNIVERSITY

A temperature event of 33 degrees Celsius in Dublin’s Phoenix Park has gone from being a 1 in 180-year event in 1942 to a 1 in 9-year event in 2020, according to a new study led by Ireland's Maynooth University.

The study, which developed a new model to predict the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme summer temperature events in Ireland, also estimates that a temperature of more than 34 degrees Celsius -- a value not yet recorded in Ireland – changed from a 1 in 1,600-year event to a 1 in 28-year event between 1942 and 2020.

The study was carried out by a team of researchers led by Prof Andrew Parnell and Dr Dáire Healy of the Hamilton Institute at Maynooth University, in collaboration with Prof Peter Thorne of Maynooth University’s ICARUS Climate Research Centre and Prof Jonathan Tawn of Lancaster University in the UK.

“We found that spatial heatwave events over thresholds that are critical for society have become much larger, having at least doubled in extent for 28 degree Celsius, with this change increasing at more extreme temperatures,” Dr Healy said.

The findings were detailed in a recent paper “Inference for Extreme Spatial Temperature Events in a Changing Climate with Application to Ireland” and were read to The Royal Statistical Society at a meeting on ‘Statistical Aspects of Climate Change’ held online on June 3, 2024.

According to Prof Parnell: “We are often focussed on average changes, and particularly focus on the Paris Climate Agreement of 1.5 degrees Celsius. What we have shown here is that the changes in extremes are much larger than the changes in the average, and are something we should be seriously concerned about.”

He said the findings underscored the urgency for societal adaptation to increasing extreme temperature events, which have profound implications for public health, agriculture, economic stability, and infrastructure resilience. The research team believe that the model’s ability to predict spatial patterns of extreme events offers a powerful tool for policymakers and stakeholders to mitigate risks and plan for future climate scenarios.

The model captures both location and temporal variations in extreme daily maximum temperatures using new mathematical techniques. Analysis by the research team identifies a significant change in the behaviour of extreme temperature events over time, which exceeds the observed changes in mean temperature levels over the same period.

The full study can be found here. 

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JOURNAL

Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society

DOI

10.48550/arXiv.2111.08616 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Inference for Extreme Spatial Temperature Events in a Changing Climate with Application to Ireland

 

What do we need for better biodiversity monitoring in Europe?

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

 

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FIVE WAYS FORWARD SUGGESTED BY STAKEHOLDERS TO IMPROVE BIODIVERSITY MONITORING AND THEREBY POLICY IMPACT IN EUROPE.

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CREDIT: JANOKA82 | DREAMSTIME

A new publication authored by scientists from the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) and IIASA with a large European consortium provides vital insights into the current status of biodiversity monitoring in Europe, identifying policy needs, challenges, and future pathways.

According to the European Environment Agency, Europe’s biodiversity continues to decline at an alarming rate due to anthropogenic pressures and a warming climate. Improving biodiversity monitoring data is crucial to ensure effective implementation of the EU Biodiversity Strategy goals, successful conservation policies, and restoration management under the EU Nature Restoration Law.

However, knowing about data needs from users and policy makers is the first step toward achieving this. Those needs are assessed in the new iDiv-IIASA study published in Conservation Letters.

“Current monitoring efforts in Europe suffer from a variety of limitations, hindering their effectiveness. They are often fragmented across ecosystems and habitats with little continuity. For example, the environmental status of 20-70% of all EU marine regions is unknown,” says study lead author Hannah Moersberger from the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) and iDiv. “In addition, there is a lack of studies engaging directly with data users and policymakers to map their needs.”

Key findings

To address these issues, the scientists used a four-step user-centered stakeholder engagement process, which consisted of an international public stakeholder workshop, an online survey, semi-structured interviews, and an expert meeting with representatives of EU member states.

“The stakeholder engagement process saw strong participation from decision makers, including experts from 18 EU member states, the European Commission, and the European Environment Agency,” says study co-lead Juliette Martin, a research scholar jointly associated with the IIASA Population and Just Societies and Biodiversity and Natural Resources programs. “We wanted our study to be as inclusive as possible, covering all relevant stakeholders, and therefore also surveyed workshop participants, including experts from major natural history societies, museums, universities, and other research organizations.”

The survey conducted across Europe identified 274 biodiversity monitoring programs that are currently in place across European countries and agencies. The data reflected a bias in the attention paid to different biomes and species. Birds were, for instance, the most frequently monitored group, accounting for 28% of all monitoring efforts.

“In our study we systematically assessed the user and policy needs as well as regular uptake of monitoring data from structured monitoring and citizen science programs in national policy workflows,” says senior author Aletta Bonn, head of the Biodiversity and People research group at UFZ, iDiv, and the Friedrich Schiller University Jena.

“Our research identified and highlighted the many uses such data can have across a variety of sectors, whether for drawing up agricultural strategies, conservation and restoration plans, or managing hunting permits within a country,” explains study coauthor Jose Valdez from University Halle and iDiv.

The study identified four main clusters of key policy areas related to biodiversity monitoring within the next decade: assessing biodiversity and species trends; assessing biodiversity policy impact and effectiveness; integrating biodiversity in other policy sectors; and operationalization of monitoring.

Challenges and solutions

The study also identified the top ten challenges to current biodiversity monitoring activities in Europe. These were primarily associated with four major types of obstacles: lack of integrated data, insufficient data, insufficient resources, and biased data.

“The stakeholders involved in the study identified five ways to improve biodiversity monitoring and policy impacts in Europe,” says senior coauthor Ian McCallum, who leads the Novel Data Ecosystems for Sustainability (NODES) Research Group in the IIASA Advancing Systems Analysis Program. “These solutions include, enhanced coordination and cooperation, standardization for enhanced data gathering and dissemination, use of advanced models and new technologies, better coordination of financial resources and capacity building, as well as stakeholder engagement.”

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JOURNAL

Conservation Letters

DOI

10.1111/conl.13038 

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

Biodiversity monitoring in Europe: User and policy needs

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

1-Jul-2024

Disclaimer: AAAS a

 

Crucial gaps in climate risk assessment methods

UNIVERSITY OF ZURICH

A study by Stefano Battiston of the Department of Finance at the University of Zurich and his co-authors has identified critical shortcomings in the way climate-related risks to corporate assets are currently assessed. Many current estimates of climate physical climate risk rely on simplified and proxy data that do not accurately represent a company’s true risk exposure. This can lead to significant underestimates of climate-related losses, with serious implications for business investment planning, asset valuation and climate adaptation efforts.

Potential losses up to 70% higher than previously estimated
The research team developed a new methodology that uses detailed information about the location and characteristics of a company’s physical assets, such as factories, equipment and natural resources. This approach provides a more accurate picture of climate risks than methods that use proxy data, which often assume that all of a company’s assets are located at its headquarters.
“When we compared our results with those using proxy data, we found that the potential losses from climate risks could be up to 70% higher than previously thought,” says Stefano Battiston. “This underscores the critical need for more granular data in risk assessments.”

Preparing for the worst: The role of extreme events
The authors also point to the importance of considering “tail risk” in climate assessments. Tail risk refers to the possibility of extreme events that, while rare, can have catastrophic impacts. “Many assessments focus on average impacts. Our research shows that the potential losses from extreme events can be up to 98% higher than these averages suggest,” says Stefano Battiston. “Failure to account for these possibilities can leave businesses and investors dangerously unprepared.”

More funding for climate adaptation
The study's findings have significant implications for climate policy, business strategy, and investment decisions. The researchers emphasize that more accurate risk assessments are crucial for developing effective climate adaptation strategies and determining appropriate levels of climate-related insurance and funding. “Our work shows that we may be seriously underestimating the financial resources needed for climate adaptation,” concludes Stefano Battiston.

Literature
Giacomo Bressan, Anja Duranovic, Irene Monasterolo, Stefano Battiston: Asset-level assessment of climate physical risk matters for adaptation, Nature Communications, 1 July 2024. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48820-1

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JOURNAL

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-024-48820-1 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Meta-analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Asset-level assessment of climate physical risk matters for adaptation

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

1-Jul-2024

Disclaimer: AAAS and Eurek

 

The UJI and the Provincial Hospital are testing a robot for isolation situations due to infectious or radiological risks

The robotic unit was developed by the IRSLab team at the UJI's Centre for Research in Robotics and Underwater Technologies (CIRTESU) as part of the European H2020 El-Peacetolero project in collaboration with the Provincial Hospital

UNIVERSITAT JAUME I

 

VIDEO: 

THE UNIVERSITAT JAUME I AND THE CASTELLÓ PROVINCIAL HOSPITAL CONSORTIUM HAVE TESTED THE EFFECTIVENESS OF A TELEOPERATED MOBILE OMNIDIRECTIONAL TERRESTRIAL MANIPULATOR ROBOT FOR USE IN ISOLATION SITUATIONS DUE TO INFECTIOUS OR RADIOLOGICAL RISKS.

THE FIRST TRIAL CONSISTED OF A MOBILITY TEST, NAVIGATION OF THE ROBOT IN CORRIDORS AND ROOMS, OPENING OF DOORS, DATA ACQUISITION FOR 3D RECONSTRUCTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND REACH WITH THE MANIPULATOR ARM.

THE ROBOT WOULD BE USED TO DELIVER FOOD AND MEDICATION TO PATIENTS IN ISOLATION DUE TO INFECTIOUS PATHOLOGIES OR ADMITTED TO THE SPECIAL HOSPITALISATION UNIT, WHERE PEOPLE REQUIRING METABOLIC THERAPY OR GYNAECOLOGICAL BRACHYTHERAPY ARE TREATED, THUS AVOIDING UNNECESSARY EXPOSURE OF HEALTHCARE STAFF TO POSSIBLE INFECTIOUS OR RADIOLOGICAL RISKS.

THE ROBOTIC UNIT WAS DEVELOPED BY THE IRSLAB TEAM AT THE UJI'S CENTRE FOR RESEARCH IN ROBOTICS AND UNDERWATER TECHNOLOGIES (CIRTESU) AS PART OF THE EUROPEAN H2020 EL-PEACETOLERO PROJECT TO INSPECT PLASTIC PIPES IN SCENARIOS WITH RADIOACTIVE RISKS WHERE HUMAN INTERVENTION IS NOT FEASIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO BEEN DESIGNED FOR USE IN BIOHAZARD ENVIRONMENTS SUCH AS A HOSPITAL CENTRE.

THE TELEOPERATED OMNIDIRECTIONAL MOBILE TERRESTRIAL MANIPULATOR ROBOT INTEGRATES AN INTELLIGENT SENSOR EQUIPPED WITH ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, USES 2D AND 3D LIDAR SYSTEMS MOUNTED ON THE MOBILE HEAD AND HAS A MANIPULATOR ARM FOR FUTURE ASSISTANCE TO THE PATIENT.

THE EL-PEACETOLERO PROJECT (EMBEDDED ELECTRONIC SOLUTIONS FOR POLYMER INNOVATIVE SCANNING TOOLS USING LIGHT EMITTING DEVICES FOR DIAGNOSTIC ROUTINES) HAS BEEN FUNDED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION'S HORIZON 2020 RESEARCH AND INNOVATION PROGRAMME UNDER GRANT AGREEMENT NO. 945320.

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CREDIT: UNIVERSITAT JAUME I OF CASTELLÓN (SPAIN)

The Universitat Jaume I and the Castelló Provincial Hospital Consortium have tested the effectiveness of a teleoperated mobile omnidirectional terrestrial manipulator robot for use in isolation situations due to infectious or radiological risks. The first trial consisted of a mobility test, navigation of the robot in corridors and rooms, opening of doors, data acquisition for 3D reconstruction of the environment and reach with the manipulator arm.

The robot would be used to deliver food and medication to patients in isolation due to infectious pathologies or admitted to the Special Hospitalisation Unit, where people requiring metabolic therapy or gynaecological brachytherapy are treated, thus avoiding unnecessary exposure of healthcare staff to possible infectious or radiological risks.

The robotic unit was developed by the IRSLab team at the UJI's Centre for Research in Robotics and Underwater Technologies (CIRTESU) as part of the European H2020 El-Peacetolero project to inspect plastic pipes in scenarios with radioactive risks where human intervention is not feasible, although the system has also been designed for use in biohazard environments such as a hospital centre.

The first steps to adapt the equipment to the hospital environment and needs were taken as part of the doctoral thesis of Amparo Tirado Bou, from the Doctoral Programme in Computer Science, directed by Raúl Marín of the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, with the support of lecturers Pedro J. Sanz and Juan J. Echagüe of CIRTESU, Eladio Collado, lecturer of Nursing and Dean of the Faculty of Health Sciences, the researchers of the different teams and the professionals of the Provincial Hospital, who have contributed ideas and possible applications to improve the safety and well-being of medical care.

In the case of metabolic therapy, the patient receives radioactive drugs orally or intravenously. This treatment requires the patient to be admitted to a room specially adapted to meet the radiation protection standards set by the Nuclear Safety Council.

The Consortium has two rooms dedicated exclusively to these treatments. The patient remains in the rooms in isolation, unable to leave or receive visitors, until the radiation levels have fallen to legal limits, which usually takes two or three days.

During this time, the patient receives continuous remote care from the centre's medical and nursing staff, who have previously attended a course for supervisors or operators of radioactive facilities.

Radiological monitoring of workers exposed to ionising radiation is carried out by means of passive detection systems known as dosimeters, which are read by bodies or institutions expressly authorised and controlled by the Nuclear Safety Council.

Gynaecological brachytherapy, which is carried out in another dedicated room, plays a key role in the treatment of cancer by delivering a high dose of radiation to a very well-defined tumour volume with minimal damage to surrounding healthy tissue.

The patient receiving this treatment is transferred to the room in the Special Hospitalisation Unit, where she must remain isolated, without staff or companions, during the minutes of irradiation, about 10 minutes every hour, for a period that can range from one to four days.

The teleoperated omnidirectional mobile terrestrial manipulator robot integrates an intelligent sensor equipped with artificial intelligence, uses 2D and 3D LIDAR systems mounted on the mobile head and has a manipulator arm for future assistance to the patient.

The El-Peacetolero project (Embedded Electronic Solutions for Polymer Innovative Scanning Tools Using Light Emitting Devices for Diagnostic Routines) has been funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No. 945320.

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METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

 

Understanding the synchronization of physiological states during a live music performance

Research finds that the heart rate synchronization of listeners in response to music is dependent on the consistency in physiological responses and not their mood or preferences

WASEDA UNIVERSITY

 

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A STUDY BY A RESEARCHER FROM WASEDA UNIVERSITY HAS FOUND THAT HEART RATE SYNCHRONIZATION IN RESPONSE TO MUSIC IS HIGHLY PERSONALIZED, CORRELATING MORE STRONGLY ACROSS TIME WITHIN THE SAME PERSON COMPARED TO BETWEEN TWO OR MORE PEOPLE.

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CREDIT: RYOTA NOMURA OF WASEDA UNIVERSITY

Common input synchronization is a process where systems or organisms exposed to an identical input respond similarly. People listening to a concert, for example, could experience a synchronization of their emotions. “Music-induced synchronization of heart rate may be the mechanism underlying the coherent behavior of a large audience in a theater,” suggests Ryota Nomura, an Associate Professor affiliated with Waseda University, Japan, while describing the mechanism. Previous studies have shown that inter-subject correlations calculated using physiological signals, including heart rate, are usually low. Studies investigating the common-input induced synchronization in different individuals suggest that the low correlation is due to weak intra-person correlation between the conscious processing and heart rate. This intra-person correlation is challenging to control directly. Hence, the current study by Dr. Nomura eliminated the individual differences in the processing by applying common input to the same individuals repeatedly.

Dr. Nomura has recently published this insightful study in Scientific Reports on 28 May 2024. In the study, Dr. Nomura showed that the synchronization of physical and cognitive processes is better within an individual compared to that between different individuals. The study revealed that the heart rate synchronization in response to music depends on the reliable physiological responses of the listener, not on their mood or music preferences. “This study allows us to explain the reproducibility of the aesthetic experience of the theater in terms of reliability,” notes Dr. Nomura.

The study investigated the inter- and intra-subject correlations calculated using instantaneous heart rate data measured while listening to music. To estimate the effect of mood on music-induced heart rate synchronization, Dr. Nomura had participants in the study listen to the same piece of music on different days. Likewise, to quantify the influence of music preference on heart rate synchronization, he investigated whether a person listening to a piece of music selected by the researcher differed in synchronization response to a piece of music that deeply moves them when played in a randomized order.

Dr. Nomura discovered that the reliability with which a subject’s heart rate responded to the music is significantly more correlated across time for a given individual, compared to the inter-subjective correlation in responses between individuals.

“The results demonstrated that inter-subject correlations were consistently lower compared to intra-subject correlations, regardless of participants’ music preferences and daily moods. Further, music-induced heart rate synchronization depends on the reliability of physiological responses to musical pieces rather than mood or motivation,” Dr. Nomura observes.

Overall, the study will lead to a greater understanding of collective human emotion as a way to improve the theater-going experience. By discovering what factors contribute to heart-rate synchronization and consequent emotional response, this study offers valuable clues for the success of performing arts. “From data on small audiences, for example, the degree of proficiency of performers, commercial success can be predicted in terms of reliability. This could contribute to better performances in theaters. Moreover, engineered devices that enhance reliability may facilitate synchronization of the physiological states of multiple audience members,” concludes Dr. Nomura, while highlighting the implications of the study.

 

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Reference

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-62994-0

 

Authors: Ryota Nomura

 

Affiliations: Faculty of Human Sciences, Waseda University, Japan

 

About Waseda University
Located in the heart of Tokyo, Waseda University is a leading private research university that has long been dedicated to academic excellence, innovative research, and civic engagement at both the local and global levels since 1882. The University has produced many changemakers in its history, including nine prime ministers and many leaders in business, science and technology, literature, sports, and film. Waseda has strong collaborations with overseas research institutions and is committed to advancing cutting-edge research and developing leaders who can contribute to the resolution of complex, global social issues. The University has set a target of achieving a zero-carbon campus by 2032, in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by the United Nations in 2015. 

To learn more about Waseda University, visit https://www.waseda.jp/top/en  

 

About Associate Professor Ryota Nomura
Dr. Ryota Nomura has been an Associate Professor at the School of Human Sciences at Waseda University, Japan, since 2020. Dr. Nomura is a cognitive scientist who received his Ph.D. in Psychology from Kyushu University in 2008 and Ph.D. in Engineering from Tokyo University of Science in 2016. He has over eight years of research experience and has published over 26 research articles in areas involving engineering in education, human blinking behavior, proficiency of stage actors, etc. Dr. Nomura has previously worked in various research and teaching roles at Kagoshima Immaculate Heart University, The University of Tokyo, and Kyushu University. Dr. Nomura has also been awarded the Best Paper Award by the Japanese Cognitive Science Society for his paper on cognitive studies in 2015.

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JOURNAL

Scientific Reports

DOI

10.1038/s41598-024-62994-0 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Reliability for music‑induced heart rate synchronization

New study reveals significant risk of bankruptcy for Japanese professional football clubs

UNIVERSITY OF PORTSMOUTH

A new study has revealed that almost two-thirds of football clubs in the top two divisions of Japan's Professional Football League, also known as the J-League, could be at risk of bankruptcy. 

The research, conducted by sports finance and economics experts from the University of Portsmouth and Sheffield Hallam University, found widespread financial issues across both the J1 and J2 leagues, with approximately 50 to 75 per cent of the clubs at risk. 

Clubs that have played predominantly in the J1 League were found to be in poorer financial health compared to those that have played predominantly in the J2 League. 

Some of the clubs at high risk include Ventforet Kofu, Omiya Ardija, Hokkaido-Consadole Sapporo and Shonan Bellmare.

This study, which is the first of its kind to investigate financial distress in Asian professional football, brings to light the pressing need for financial reforms in Japanese professional football.

Sarthak Mondal, Lecturer in Sport Management at the University of Portsmouth, and study co-author said: “Our findings highlight the financial challenges facing Japanese professional football clubs and the need for ongoing monitoring of their financial health. There are no policies that exist at a continental level in Asia to give early warning signs of financial distress to prevent businesses from going bankrupt, despite such policies being prevalent in Europe.

“The financial instability in Japanese professional football could worsen still due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

The researchers used the Altman z-score, a numerical measurement that is used to predict the chances of a business becoming bankrupt in the next two years, to identify the percentage of J1 League and J2 League clubs at risk of bankruptcy. They collected data from financial figures over 10 seasons for 29 professional football clubs competing in the J1 League and J2 League between 2011 and 2020.

Their findings indicate widespread financial issues, with the potential for financial distress looming for approximately 50 to 75 per cent of the clubs. Of even greater concern is the dire financial picture of clubs that have spent between 7 and 9 seasons in J1 League. The study found there is clear evidence that these clubs are spending beyond their means to stay and compete with teams in the J1 League or get promoted to J1 League soon after relegation, thereby risking financial stability, a trend similar to football clubs in England.

Mondal said: “Notably, this occurs despite the implementation of club licensing regulations that are strictly set to ensure financial sustainability at these clubs. Despite the presence of the club licensing criteria, the J-League does not operate any version of Financial Fair Play or Financial Sustainability rules that can be seen in Europe. As a result, there is a risk of a lack of monitoring in terms of cumulative acceptable losses allowed by a football club over any given period.”

The study also highlights the crucial aspect of the ownership structure of J-League clubs, which is a mixture of private and public ownership. The research shows that clubs in public ownership, such as city corporations, are at a greater risk of financial distress as compared to clubs in private ownership.

Mondal added: “To address these financial challenges, we recommend that the J-League revisit its Club Licensing Criteria, which were designed to bring financial sustainability among member clubs, and consider implementing equitable cost-control measures. These measures could include capping acceptable losses over a specified period or restricting overall expenditures as a percentage of the club’s revenue.

“While there have been instances of more clubs conforming to the Club Licensing Criteria, the overall picture of financial health among clubs in the J1 League and J2 League paints a more negative picture. Furthermore, clubs that get relegated from J1 League spend beyond their means to achieve promotion to J2 League, thereby risking further financial instability.”

The research also suggests that examining financial conditions in other Asian and European leagues could provide a comparative understanding of whether such financial distress is widespread across different countries and continents.

The study is published in the Journal of Applied Accounting Research.

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JOURNAL

Journal of Applied Accounting Research

DOI

10.1108/JAAR-12-2023-0394 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Literature review

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Spending money is like water soaking into the sand: anticipating financial distress in Japanese professional football clubs

  

How does climate change affect birds?

Research staff from the UPV and the UV assess the impact of climate change on the productivity of the common reed warbler and the moustached warbler

UNIVERSITAT POLITÈCNICA DE VALÈNCIA

 

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THE TWO SPECIES STUDIED WERE THE MOUSTACHED WARBLER (ACROCEPHALUS MELANOPOGON) AND THE COMMON REED WARBLER (ACROCEPHALUS SCIRPACEUS), BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH WETLANDS ON THE MEDITERRANEAN COAST.

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CREDIT: UPV

The work, published in the Bird Study scientific journal, is part of the PhD thesis that Pau Lucio, Associate Lecturer in the Animal Science Department at the Gandia Campus, is developing between the UPV and the Cavanilles Institute of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology of the University of Valencia.

The two species studied were the moustached warbler (Acrocephalus melanopogon) and the common reed warbler (Acrocephalus scirpaceus), both associated with wetlands on the Mediterranean coast.

The moustached warbler is a resident/short-distance migrant listed as "vulnerable" in the Spanish Red Data Book of Birds 2021 due to its population decline in recent years. Spain is home to the largest population of this species in Western Europe.

In contrast, the common reed warbler, more generalist in its habitat preferences, is a long-distance migrant (it visits Spanish wetlands during the breeding season and spends the winter in Africa). Its conservation status is defined as of "least concern", as it is widely distributed throughout Europe.

Scientific ringing

According to Pau Lucio, the research has aimed to understand to what extent different climatic and/or geographical factors are affecting productivity, i.e. the relationship between the number born in a given year and the number of adults of both species, using a large database with 25 years of ringing in Spanish wetlands. "Specifically, we have used data from the scientific ringing programme for the monitoring of breeding bird species in Spain (PASER) between 1995 and 2021", adds Pau Lucio.

Effect of extreme weather events

The study concludes that a cumulative rainfall of up to approximately 100 mm favours the productivity of the moustached warbler, and rainfall above this threshold is detrimental to the reproduction of the species. As for temperatures, the UPV and UV team observed that high values have a negative effect.

In contrast, temperature positively affected common reed warbler productivity, while rainfall had almost no effect. However, productivity also peaked when rainfall was close to 100 mm.

"Warmer temperatures and more frequent heavy rainfall may compromise the conservation of the moustached warbler in Spain due to the adverse effect of both elements on its productivity. In contrast, higher temperatures may benefit the common reed warbler," says Virginia Garófano from the Research Institute for Integrated Coastal Zone Management (IGIC) of the UPV Gandia Campus.

Thus, the study concludes that, given the current climate emergency, it is likely that the population of the moustached warbler will decrease while the population of the common reed warbler could increase. However, further work is needed to establish the specific impact of climate change on survival and its implications for the population trends and dynamics of these two species.

Climate-sensitive periods

One of the main advances of this work has been to be able to use a large database with a large spatial and temporal distribution and also to investigate the specific period (time window) in which climate variables have the most significant impact on productivity to define climatically sensitive periods taking into account spatial variables (site, longitude, latitude and elevation) and temporal changes (year).

"This advance in the ecological modelling of trends in bird populations has been possible thanks to the use of complex data modelling techniques such as data mining, machine learning techniques and the use of genetic algorithms in the optimisation of the models," says Rafael Muñoz-Mas, researcher also linked to the IGIC of the UPV and co-author of the study.

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JOURNAL

Bird Study

DOI

10.1080/00063657.2024.2343956 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Meta-analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

Unravelling the link between productivity and climate for two sympatric Acrocephalus warblers across Spain

Exploring bird breeding behaviour and microbiomes in the radioactive Chornobyl Exclusion Zone

SOCIETY FOR EXPERIMENTAL BIOLOGY

New research finds surprising differences in the diets and gut microbiomes of songbirds living in the radiation contaminated areas of the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone, Ukraine. This study is also the first to examine the breeding behaviour and early life of birds growing up in radiologically contaminated habitats.

The Chornobyl Exclusion Zone (Ukrainian), also known as the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (Russian), is an area of approximately 2,600 km2 of radiologically contaminated land that surrounds the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The levels of contamination are uneven throughout the zone.

“The consequences of radiological contamination to wildlife are still widely unknown, especially the risks posed to wildlife in early life,” says Mr Sameli Piirto, a PhD researcher at the University of Jyväskylä, Finland. “Our hypothesis was that biodiversity in contaminated areas would be compromised leading to changes in birds breeding, diet and gut microbiome.”

To examine the effects of radiological contamination on bird development, Mr Piirto and his team investigated the breeding behaviours and physiologies of two common European songbird species, Great tit (Parus major) and Pied Flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca). These were selected due to their well-studied ecologies.

Nest boxes were placed in multiple areas that belonged to two categories within the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone: areas of high radiological contamination and areas of low contamination. The nestling and adult birds that used the nest boxes were then monitored, with DNA from fecal samples being used to study the birds’ diets and characterise their gut microbial communities.

Mr Piirto found that while nest occupancy rate was lower in contaminated areas, there were no other major differences in breeding ecology or nestling health between the two levels of radiation contamination for either species. Surprisingly, both species nestlings were found to actually have a higher diversity of insects in their diet in the contaminated areas.

While environmental radiation levels were not associated with bacterial diversity of the gut microbiome, radiation level was associated with the relative composition of the microbiome. “These results create an interesting background for understanding avian ecology in radiologically contaminated areas,” says Mr Piirto. “They give us valuable novel information on the effects that radiation has on juvenile birds - an area of research that has been unclear until now.”

This research can help to provide insights into the long-term effects of nuclear accidents on wildlife health. “Radiological contamination creates an additional stressor that organisms must cope with, leading to a myriad of consequences that are not yet fully understood,” says Mr Piirto. “Studying the effects of it is crucial if humanity is to pursue an even more nuclear future.”

This research is being presented at the Society for Experimental Biology Annual Conference in Prague on the 2-5th July 2024.