NGOs and Media Organizations of Georgia to Challenge the "Foreign Agents" Law in Strasbourg Court

 17.10.2024

The Foreign Agents Law in Georgia

Georgian non-governmental and media organizations will challenge the so-called “Russian law” in the Strasbourg Court. This was announced at a briefing by Nona Kurdovanidze, chairwoman of the Georgian Young Lawyers’ Association (GYLA).

According to her, the severe consequences caused by the “Russian law” will be contested in the European Court of Human Rights on behalf of 16 media projects, 120 civil organizations, and four individuals.

Op-ed: Ivanishvili has long been preparing 'The Second Treaty of Georgievsk'

“Bidzina seeks to repeat history and become the next Irakli II of Georgia, rather than submit to Russia,” – political analyst Gia Khukhashvili.

“The ‘Russian law’ is aimed not only at restricting the freedom of civil society and media but also at dividing all citizens and suppressing critical voices. The fight against independent organizations using Russian methods not only violates fundamental human rights but also undermines the unwavering choice of the Georgian people regarding integration into Euro-Atlantic structures.

Despite the Constitutional Court’s failure to fulfill its obligations, our struggle against the ‘Russian law’ continues, and it will surely end successfully,” Kurdovanidze stated.

The Constitutional Court of Georgia has accepted the lawsuits against the "foreign agents" law but has not suspended it

The president, opposition, NGOs, and media that have filed lawsuits claim the law violates the Constitution

On October 9, the Constitutional Court did not suspend the implementation of the “foreign agents” law but accepted the lawsuit for consideration. The plenary session of judges made this decision a month after consultations.

The lawsuit was brought by the President of Georgia, representatives of the opposition, non-governmental organizations, and media regarding the compliance of the “Russian law” with the Constitution of Georgia.

The Constitutional Court stated that substantive discussions on the case would begin; however, the plaintiffs’ request to suspend the implementation of the contested provisions until a final decision is made will not be granted.

The decision includes various opinions from several judges, including Giorgi Kverenchkhiladze and Teimuraz Tugushi, regarding the suspension of the contested provisions.

The four lawsuits filed with the Constitutional Court by the president, public and media organizations, and the opposition were consolidated into a single case. The hearings began on August 29.

Arrested protesters in Georgia

What’s important to know about Georgia’s ‘foreign agents’ law?

• The “Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence”, initiated by the ruling Georgian Dream party, was passed by Parliament on May 28, 2024. The legislation establishes a special registry for “foreign agent organizations,” defined as entities where more than 20 percent of funding comes from foreign grants. In a small and relatively poor country like Georgia, this effectively includes nearly all non-governmental organizations.
• The Parliament adopted this law despite massive protests, persistent calls from Georgia’s Western partners, and the opinion of the Venice Commission of the Council of Europe.
• After the passage of the law, the US announced the first package of sanctions against the “Georgian Dream” government. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned of a “comprehensive review of US-Georgia cooperation.”
• The European Union also took retaliatory measures. In early July, the EU halted €30 million in aid to Georgia and warned of additional measures to come. Senior EU officials have repeatedly indicated that this law distances Georgia from the EU.
• On July 11, the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs passed the Megobari Act, which imposes sanctions on those involved in passing the “foreign agents” law.

The Georgian government’s main argument is that similar laws exist in the U.S. and several European countries, including France. According to Georgian Dream, every country has the right to protect itself from foreign influence and demand transparency from its organizations.

However, this comparison is inaccurate because:

The American law FARA (Foreign Agents Registration Act), to which Georgian Dream refers, was enacted in the U.S. in 1938, before World War II, and aimed to protect the American public from Nazi propaganda. Neither then nor now did FARA apply to America’s allies and friendly countries.

In France, the law on “Foreign State Influence” includes a specific list of countries to which the law applies. This list comprises countries whose influence France considers a threat, including Russia, China, Turkey, and Iran. The French version also specifically states that this law does not apply to EU countries. The Georgian version lacks such provisions. Consequently, this law directly impacts organizations funded by the U.S. and the EU—friendly and partner countries that support democratic processes and numerous vital projects in Georgia, ranging from healthcare and infrastructure to strengthening civil society.

Furthermore, FARA stipulates that the law does not apply to media or NGOs, only to lobbying organizations. The Georgian version does not have this clarification.

Overall, the Georgian law is similar to the Russian law, which primarily affected media and the NGO sector. As a result, all non-governmental and media organizations not controlled by the Kremlin have been shut down in Russia. Hence, the Georgian law has been dubbed the “Russian law.”

It’s also important that this law contradicts EU legislation. When a similar law was adopted in Hungary, it was annulled by the European Court of Human Rights because it was directly aimed at silencing the media and oppressing NGOs.

STALINIST SHOW TRIAL

Vietnamese property tycoon Truong My Lan sentenced to life in prison for property fraud while on death row


Truong My Lan was sentenced in Ho Chi Minh city. (AP: Quynh Tran/VnExpress)

In short:

A woman sentenced to death for Vietnam's biggest known fraud has received a life-long prison sentence in another case.

Truong My Lan was found guilty of fraudulently obtaining property, money laundering and illegal money transfers.

What's next?

It is not clear if she will appeal the sentence.

A real estate tycoon on death row in Vietnam has been sentenced to life in prison for fraudulently obtaining property worth billions of dollars.

Truong My Lan, the chair of real estate developer Van Thinh Phat Holdings Group, was found guilty of obtaining property by fraud, money laundering and illegal cross-border money transfers, according to state-run Tuoi Tre newspaper.

Lan's companies were accused of illegally raising over 30 trillion dong ($1.78 billion) from issuing bonds to investors, according to a police statement released ahead of the trial.

Lan was also accused of illegally transferring $6.79 billion into and out of Vietnam and laundering 445 trillion dong ($2.64 billion), the statement said.

The judges said Lan acknowledged many of her offences but refuted allegations she had directed the bond issuance, Tuoi Tre reported.

A heavy security presence surrounded the sentencing of Truong My Lan. (AP: Quynh Tran/VNExpress)

Reuters could not immediately reach her lawyers for comment.

Nguyen Hieu, a schoolteacher whose life savings of $53,000 was tied up in illegal bonds issued by Lan's company, said the life sentence was fair.

"She deserves the punishment," he said, adding that he hoped the death sentence from the first trial was commuted so that Lan could pay back her victims.

It was not immediately clear if Lan would appeal the verdict and no date has yet been set for her appeal of her death penalty conviction to be heard.

All other 33 co-defendants were found guilty of various charges and received sentences ranging from two to 23 years in prison.

They included Chu Nap Kee, Lan's husband, who was sentenced to two years for money laundering.

Chu Nap Kee, husband of Vietnamese real estate tycoon Truong My Lan, was also sentenced as one of 33 co-accused. (AP: Quynh Tran/VnExpress)

In April, Lan was sentenced to death in a separate trial after being found guilty of embezzlement, bribery and violations of banking rules in a 304 trillion dong financial fraud, the country's biggest on record.

The fraud equated to nearly 3 per cent of Vietnam's gross domestic product.

Her arrest in 2022 sparked a run on one of the country's largest private banks by deposits, Saigon Joint Stock Commercial Bank (SCB), which was at the centre of the fraud and largely owned by Lan through her proxies.

Lan is among the high-profile business executives and state officials jailed in the communist-ruled country's years-long anti-graft campaign, known as "Blazing Furnace".

Since 2016, thousands of party officials have been disciplined, including former president Nguyen Xuan Phuc and the former head of parliament, Vuong Dinh Hue, both of whom resigned.

In all, eight members of the powerful Politburo have been ousted on corruption allegations, compared to none between 1986 and 2016.

Reuters/AP/ABC

PAYBACK 

Israel-US billionaire gives Trump $95m for US presidential campaign

October 17, 2024

Miriam Adelson, widow of billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, welcomes Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump to the stage to speak before prominent Jewish donors at an event titled “Fighting Anti-Semitism in America” at the Hyatt Regency Capitol Hill on September 19, 2024 in Washington, DC. [Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images]

Israeli-American billionaire Miriam Adelson has spent $95 million on her political action committee (PAC) supporting former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, according to the latest data from the US Federal Election Commission (FEC). The data showed that Adelson made four payments to her super PAC supporting Trump in July, August and September.

The total amount paid by the Israeli-American billionaire to the committee since the beginning of this year amounted to $100 million, according to data published on Tuesday, reported Al Jazeera.net.

This super PAC, known as Preserve America, is one of the major political action committees (so-called “super PACs”) that have the right to raise unlimited amounts of money and spend it independently to support campaigns and political figures without directly funding politicians and parties. With the huge sums of money that Adelson has spent, she is one of Trump’s biggest donors this election season, according to Politico.

Adelson is a physician and businesswoman, and the widow of Jewish American billionaire Sheldon Adelson, who founded a chain of casinos and owned the Israel Hayom newspaper in the occupation state. He was a major donor who helped take Trump to the White House in 2016, and supported his decision to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem. Adelson was also a major supporter of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

UNIFIL says Israeli army attacked another UN site in southern Lebanon

ZIONIST AGGRESSION IS NOT SELF DEFENSE

October 17, 2024 

A sign marks the northern operational boundary of United Nations Peacekeepers of the UNIFIL force, which has seen multiple injured soldiers due to cross-border Israeli military action against its posts along the Blue Line that separates Lebanon and Israel, on October 15, 2024 north of Tyre, Lebanon. [Scott Peterson/Getty Images]


The UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has said that its peacekeepers observed an Israeli tank firing at their watchtower near southern Lebanon’s Kfar Kela on Wednesday morning, Reuters has reported.

“Two cameras were destroyed, and the tower was damaged,” said UNIFIL. “Yet again we see direct and apparently deliberate fire on a UNIFIL position.”

The UN force reminded “the Israel Defence Forces and all other actors of their obligations to ensure the safety and security of UN personnel and property and to respect the inviolability of UN premises at all times.”

On Sunday, the UN peacekeeping force said that the Israeli occupation army had stormed one of its sites in the town of Ramya in southern Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called on UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to remove the UN Interim Force from Lebanon to “protect them”.

Last week, UNIFIL revealed that its headquarters in southern Lebanon had been subjected to repeated Israeli shelling, which resulted in the wounding of two of its members, sparking a wave of international condemnation.

READ: UNIFIL holding all positions despite direct, deliberate Israel attacks: Spokesperson

Revealed: Putin's sanctions-busting shadow fleet is spilling oil all over the world

Satellite imagery shows the unforeseen consequences of efforts to hobble Russia’s war economy.

By VICTOR JACK, COSTANZA GAMBARINI, KARL MATHIESEN, LOUISE GUILLOT and HANNE COKELAERE in Brussels

Illustrations by Owen Gildersleeve for POLITICO

October 16, 2024 

On a chilly spring morning in March, British coast guards spotted something unusual around 100 kilometers off the Scottish shoreline: a dark stain, stretching 23 kilometers into the North Atlantic Ocean.

According to an internal analysis prepared by the coast guard’s satellite services and seen by POLITICO, the likely source of that stain was Innova, a tanker roughly the size of the Eiffel Tower that at the time was hauling 1 million barrels of sanctioned oil from Russia on its way to a refinery in India.

Yet the coast guard did little to investigate further, and the tanker — free from any repercussion — continues to trade oil today, helping fill the Kremlin’s war chest more than two years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Innova is just one of hundreds in the world’s so-called shadow fleet, a collection of often aging, poorly maintained ships sailing in defiance of Western sanctions — and spreading environmental harm without consequences.

A joint investigation by POLITICO and the not-for-profit journalism group SourceMaterial found at least nine instances of covert shadow fleet vessels leaving spills in the world’s waters since 2021, using satellite images from the SkyTruth NGO paired with shipping data from market analysis firm Lloyd’s List and commodity platform Kpler.

Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard told POLITICO the ships posed a “significant danger” to the marine environment. “The incidents [here] illustrate this.”

It’s a problem that’s only grown worse following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. With Moscow under Western sanctions, an increasing number of tankers are ferrying illicit goods — and potential environmental devastation — across the globe. Not only are these vessels creaky and largely unregulated, they’re often uninsured, meaning that in case of a leak, or more serious spill, a government would struggle to hold them accountable.

POLITICO and SourceMaterial identified discharges everywhere from Thailand to Vietnam to Italy and Mexico, all linked to the shadow fleet. The tankers also passed through busy shipping corridors like the Red Sea and the Panama Canal, meaning any serious accident could rupture international trade routes.

Experts believe it’s only a matter of time before one of these ships suffers a catastrophe with major environmental — and economic — devastation.

“The oil spills and risk of slicks are horrendous,” said Isaac Levi, Europe-Russia lead and a shadow fleet expert at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a think tank. “Beyond the environmental damage, some of which will be irreversible, it’s a huge impact to coastal states that have to bear the cost of cleaning this up.”

In short: “It’s a ticking time bomb,” Levi said.
Rising dangers

The situation poses a global dilemma: How can democratic countries squeeze Moscow’s revenues while avoiding disastrous ramifications?

When the West first imposed sanctions on Russian oil in 2022, it aimed to throttle a critical lifeline for the Kremlin, which relies on oil and gas exports for almost half its budget.

But almost two years later, the measures — which include a blanket import ban to the European Union and an oil price cap that G7 allies imposed with other partners — have largely come up short.



Instead, Moscow has found creative work-arounds. It relabeled its crude oil to mask its origins and it organized an ever-growing fleet of over 600, with ownership often obscured by shell companies, and used it to dodge the $60-per-barrel price cap set by the G7 — tactics that Iran and Venezuela also use for similar purposes.

So far, the price cap “has proved to be a very leaky instrument,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a shipping analyst and shadow fleet expert at Lloyd’s List.

According to CREA, around 80 percent of Moscow’s seaborne crude was transported on vessels outside Western control. Meanwhile, the overall number of shadow fleet vessels has more than tripled since 2022.

And the cash has kept flowing into Russia’s war coffers. According to data analyzed by CREA, the think tank, Moscow’s shadow fleet had transported €80 billion worth of crude by September since the G7 imposed the price cap two years ago.

At the same time, the fleet is “presenting a lot of safety and environmental concerns,” Bockmann said.

These tankers, which Lloyd’s List defines as having no known insurance, obscure ownership and having been built 15 years ago or more, are classified as “high-risk” by engineers. That leaves them more vulnerable to technical problems that could affect their steering, structural integrity and seaworthiness.

With four-fifths of these vessels lacking credible insurance, according to data from Lloyd’s List, they often escape international oversight and regulation. That risk only increases when tankers turn off their transponders or transmit false locations, using so-called spoofing methods.


Where spills happen, cleanups can cost coastal countries and their taxpayers millions, Bockmann said, since the vessels’ owners cannot be tracked. Ships could also block trade choke-points like the Suez Canal if captains lose control of their vessel, she added.

The spills also pose “a very serious problem” for local wildlife, said Stepan Boitsov, a researcher specializing in marine pollution at the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research. They can harm marine life, render consumer products like shellfish toxic and prevent fish reproduction. Cleaning up presents its own problems: The chemicals involved can spread further contamination, he added.

Then there’s the collision risk. In July, a Russian shadow fleet vessel hit another tanker in Malaysian waters, causing both to catch fire.

The risk caused by the shadow fleet is global: An analysis of shadow fleet routes shows the vessels traveled down the west coast of the United States, repeatedly passed through the Mediterranean, split the English Channel and hugged China’s shoreline. And that’s just when their transponders are operating.

The problem is particularly acute in Europe, where “the dark fleet is an accident waiting to happen,” Bockmann said, given that many unregulated ships pass through EU waters after leaving Russia’s Baltic and Siberian ports.
Leaving their mark

Satellite images show small-scale accidents are already occurring around the world, largely unnoticed by authorities.

The Innova is a case in point. On March 12, six days after departing from the port of Murmansk in northwest Russia, satellites captured images of a long black slick on the sea’s surface. Transponder signals from the ship put it at the scene when the blight appeared.

Satellite imagery cannot determine whether the slick was definitely oil. But according to Alexandros Glykas, a marine engineer and CEO of the DYNAMARINe shipping services firm, such slicks often result from the discharge of slops, an oily-water mixture produced as the vessel operates. The fact that the substance can be seen from space also strongly indicates the presence of oil.




Intentional overboard discharge of waste oil slops is illegal under MARPOL, an international treaty that aims to curb shipping pollution, according to Sean Pribyl, a maritime lawyer at Holland & Knight. Signatories of the treaty include many European countries, as well as Russia and Vietnam, the country where the Innova was registered at the time and whose laws it was accountable to — its so-called flag state.

Yet the United Kingdom did not send a vessel to investigate the Innova slick further. A Maritime and Coastguard Agency spokesperson told POLITICO it did not find “sufficient evidence of a violation” — even though there is a requirement to investigate visible slicks when reasonably possible, even with a physical inspection if the ship docks at a port.

“Action will always be considered where there is evidence of the potential for environmental or social harm, which was not the case here,” the spokesperson said.

Evidence of a possible violation usually requires the vessel’s flag state to investigate potential MARPOL violations and sanction any breaches, which could result in certain certificates being revoked.

The foreign ministries of Vietnam and Sierra Leone, Innova’s flag states at the time of the spill and after it occurred, did not reply to detailed questions from POLITICO. Innova’s owner at the time, Sao Viet Petrol Transportation, also did not respond to several requests for comment.

Innova’s trip eventually ended at the Vadinar refinery in India, which last year alone received 82 million barrels of oil from Russia worth an estimated €5 billion. Then in July, Innova changed its name, managers and owner.

The Innova is far from the only ship to have literally left a trail of pollution in its wake.

On Feb. 18, satellites spotted another 47 kilometer-long slick off the Italian coast matching the coordinates of another shadow fleet tanker, the Aruna Gulcay.

That tanker, flagged in the Marshall Islands, was carrying ballast — seawater that keeps the ship afloat — from the port of Ravenna in Italy to the southern Russian port of Novorossiysk. But it’s unlikely the discharge was ballast, said Glykas, the engineer, since seawater would not be visible from space, implying another MARPOL violation.

Similarly, the Italian coast guard did not carry out an inspection of the ship. Instead, an Italian maritime agency spokesperson said it had contacted nearby ships for information on the spill. The Marshall Islands government did not respond to a request for comment, and the ship soon changed its name and manager.

Analysts at SkyTruth said the nine slicks they could clearly link to shadow fleet vessels were likely an extremely small subset of the real problem. That’s primarily because the analysis relied on the vessels having their transponders on at the time of the slick, a requirement that ships in the business of evading sanctions don’t always observe.

“I’m absolutely convinced that what you have noticed is the tip of the iceberg,” said Bockmann, the shipping analyst. “These ships are designed to [transport] sanctioned oil … as cheaply as possible, and there is absolutely no regard for conventional marine standards.”
Clamping down

The evidence of spills is leading to fresh calls for government action. But options for stopping the shadow fleet are limited.

The findings are “obviously outrageous,” said one EU diplomat, granted anonymity to speak candidly. Coastal European countries like Italy and the U.K. “have the responsibility to take extra efforts to investigate ships when they are linked to Russia,” the diplomat added.

The Innova and Aruna Gulcay in particular, the EU diplomat said, should now be “strong candidates” for Brussels’ next sanctions package against Russia given they may have breached the international maritime convention. In all, diplomats from four EU countries said the two ships should face sanctions if they breached MARPOL as the findings suggest.

“If the vessels referred to are involved in irregular or high-risk shipping practices or contributing to Russia’s war efforts, they run a high risk of being added to the [EU’s] sanctions regime,” Swedish Foreign Minister Stenergard told POLITICO.

The EU has sought to tighten the screws on Moscow’s shadow fleet by more closely monitoring the sale of old tankers to foreign countries before they get into Russian hands. The bloc also banned 27 suspect tankers from accessing the bloc’s ports or services — a tactic the U.S. also uses.

The U.K., too, has slapped restrictions on individual tankers. Last month, it added 10 more shadow fleet vessels to its sanctions list on top of the 15 already penalized. A U.K. foreign ministry spokesperson did not respond to questions about the Innova but said Britain was “going after vessels” enabling sanctions circumvention.

Italy’s foreign ministry told POLITICO it “stands ready” to sanction vessels according to EU rules, but added it had “not received any information in this regard” for the Aruna Gulcay.

A spokesperson for the European Commission said the EU’s executive arm was “constantly” exploring “possible future listings of vessels, including from the dark fleet.” All 27 EU countries must agree to adopt new sanctions.

Sanctioning individual tankers has proven to be a “pretty effective” move, said Levi, the CREA think tanker. Those blacklisted by the U.S., for example, saw their ability to trade oil drop 90 percent three months after being penalized.

“We very much encourage” the West to significantly expand the number of vessels on those sanctions lists, he said, which scare service providers like engineers and traders from cooperating with the tankers.

The EU and U.K. should also consider banning tanker sales to countries facilitating trade with Russia, Levi said, and automatically sanction vessels sailing through EU waters without known insurance.

The EU’s more hawkish countries on Russia also agree the bloc must step up its efforts, given the stakes involved.

“We are happy that we created this sanction and we listed these ships,” Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told POLITICO, “but also we are clear that we need to continue.”

If the next oil spill is larger, he warned, “it will be a catastrophe for us.”

Stuart Lau contributed reporting.

Climate change fueled the fury of hurricanes Helene and Milton

Two new studies link abnormally hot water in the Gulf of Mexico to the storms’ intensity

Hurricane Milton, shown here bearing down on Florida on October 9, was supercharged by anomalously warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Earlier in its development, it had “explosively” strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours, though it’s expected to weaken, but only slightly, before landfall.

By Carolyn Gramling

October 9, 2024 

Meteorologists have watched in awe as Hurricane Milton, churning over the anomalously warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, swiftly transformed into one of the strongest Atlantic storms on record.

Over just 20 hours on October 7, Hurricane Milton explosively intensified from a Category 1 to a catastrophic Category 5 storm, with sustained winds of 290 kilometers per hour (180 miles per hour). The storm is expected to make landfall on the west coast of Florida either late on October 9 or early October 10 as a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane, bringing deadly storm surge and hurricane-force winds to coastal regions still reeling from Hurricane Helene just two weeks earlier (SN: 10/1/24).

The rapid intensifications of both storms were fueled by the Gulf’s extremely warm water. Developing tropical storms can suck up heat from warm seawater, dragging the humid air upward where it condenses, releasing that heat into the storm’s core. As the storm moves forward, it pumps more and more water and heat into the air, and the spiraling winds will move faster and faster. Milton’s particularly explosive rate of growth may also be linked to its relatively compact size, compared with Helene (SN: 9/27/24).

Two separate reports published this week find that those warm Gulf waters were made hundreds of times more likely by human-caused climate change.

An analysis by the international World Weather Attribution, or WWA, initiative, released October 9, analyzed the role of climate change in contributing to Hurricane Helene’s intensification and its torrential rainfall, including as it moved inland across the Southern Appalachian Mountains. 

Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures in the path of the storm were, on average, about 1.26 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than they would have been in a world without climate change, the WWA researchers found. Or, to put it another way, the anomalously high temperatures along Helene’s path from development to landfall were made 200 to 500 times more likely due to climate change.

Scientists can estimate how much more likely or severe some past natural disasters were due to human-caused climate change. Here’s how.

Helene dumped as much as 50 to 75 centimeters of rain in some parts of Appalachia (20 to 30 inches), which led to flooding and hundreds of deaths across the U.S. Southeast. That rainfall, the researchers determined, was about 10 percent heavier than it would have been without human-caused climate change.

Climate Central, based in Princeton, N.J., contributed to the WWA’s sea surface temperature analysis for Helene. And, in a separate alert released October 7, Climate Central reported that elevated sea surface temperatures in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico were also behind the “explosive” increase in intensity of Hurricane Milton. The analysis found that the sea surface temperatures in the Gulf were made 400 to 800 times more likely over the past two weeks due to human-caused climate change.

That may be an underestimate, the group notes. Normally, Climate Central uses daily sea surface temperatures collected by the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information. However, Hurricane Helene’s impact has temporarily knocked out the NCEI data repository, based in Asheville, N.C.

So, to do the Milton analysis, Climate Central used sea surface temperature data obtained from the European Union’s Copernicus Marine Service. And those data tend to run slightly colder, on average, than the NCEI data, says Orlando, Fla.–based climate scientist Daniel Gilford, of Climate Central.

“One of the important messages [from both reports] is that climate change is here, happening, right now,” Gilford says. “It influenced both of these storms. We know it’s to blame for these events getting to the extent that they did. And that is something dramatic. We should sit up and take notice.”

Editor's Note:

 

This story was updated October 9, 2024, with an image of Hurricane Milton showing its location, now closer to Florida's west coast.

Citations

B. Clarke et al. Climate change key driver of catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene that devastated both coastal and inland communities. World Weather Attribution. Published online October 9, 2024.

Climate Central. Analysis: Ocean temperatures warmed by climate change provided fuel for Hurricane Milton's extreme rapid intensification. Alert published online October 7, 2024.

About Carolyn GramlingE-mail
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Carolyn Gramling is the earth & climate writer. She has bachelor’s degrees in geology and European history and a Ph.D. in marine geochemistry from MIT and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Warning as 'diablo wind' could trigger fires and power outages across California

MUTATION OF A SANTA ANNA

By Ellyn Lapointe For Dailymail.Com
16 October 2024 | 

A warning has been issued to 30,000 California residents as 'diablo wind' could spark fires and power outages this week.

The phenomena is the colloquial name for hot, dry winds that blow in from the northeast, sometimes hitting the San Francisco Bay Area and California's central coast.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has reported that the winds could reach up to 45 miles per hour, but may exceed 60 miles per hour in certain locations.

As a precaution, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) - a California utility company - notified customers across the state's north and central coastal area that it may shut down power lines to limit the danger of electrical sparks.

The NWS has issued a 'red flag' fire warning for parts of northern California as hot, dry 'Diablo' winds are forecasted to whip across the state

Nine Bay Area counties, including San Francisco, the Peninsula coast and the San Francisco bay shoreline, have been notified about the potential impacts.

Along with cities located in the zone of fire risk include Napa, Berkeley, San Jose and Big Sur, according to the NWS.

Officials are urging residents in the path of the winds to have an emergency plan in case a fire starts near them.

Read More
Meteorologists reveal 10 US states are set for higher-than-usual wildfires in 2024 ... is YOUR town at risk?

These winds are most common during the spring and fall, and studies have shown that climate change is increasing the likelihood of wind-driven extreme fire conditions in autumn.

Diablo winds whip California with gusts that parch the land and make it much easier for wildfires to start and spread rapidly.

Officials said winds are expected to reach 25-35 mph, gusting to 45 mph, with peak winds occurring late Thursday into Friday.

At higher elevations - most notably in the interior mountains of the North Bay and the Diablo Range - gusts could exceed 65 mph.

'The winds are coming from the north, not the typical sea breeze from the water which would be cooler,' said Roger Gass, a meteorologist with the San Francisco Bay Area office of the NWS.

The warning is in effect from 11pm Thursday through 5pm Saturday, local time.

'This may be the highest fire risk period of the year so far,' Daniel Swain, a climate scientist a the University of California, Los Angeles, said on X.

That's partly because these winds come on the heels of an exceptionally hot and dry summer, with some areas seeing no rain since July, according to Golden Gate Weather Services.

The Kincade Fire that ravaged Sonoma County in 2019 began when a cable on a PG&E transmission tower broke, and was fueled by Diablo winds

Previous fires stoked by Diablo winds have been devastating.

The Kincade Fire that ravaged Sonoma County in 2019 began when a cable on a PG&E transmission tower broke, and was fueled by Diablo winds. It burned more than 77,000 acres and destroyed nearly 400 buildings.

In 2017, the Tubbs Fire in Napa County killed 22 people and burned roughly 36,000 acres. Sparked by an issue with a private electrical system, the blaze was fueled by Diablo winds.

And the Oakland Hills Firestorm of 1991 killed 25 people, injured 150 others and destroyed more than 3,000 homes. The Diablo winds helped spread this fire, tossing embers in all directions.

Until the winds dissipate, residents of affected areas are prohibited from using fire pits or barbecues, and from driving off-road, which could ignite a grass fire.

Officials have also warned residents to avoid using mowers or power tools outdoors, and asked that people double-check trailer chains to make sure they're not dragging on the road as the friction can create sparks.

Scientists discover dogs are entering a new phase of evolution

• READ MORE:  Scientists reveal the key to bonding with your dog

By Ellyn Lapointe For Dailymail.Com

, 16 October 2024

Dogs could be undergoing a third wave of domestication driven by humans' desire for pets that are friendly, calm and well-suited to a sedentary lifestyle.

Just decades ago, canines were seen as working animals, tasked with hunting pests, herding livestock and guarding their homes. 

But today, companionship is a much higher priority for pet owners. 

Scientists have found that this shift has increased levels of a hormone responsible for social bonding in dogs, and especially in service dogs. 

As our lives have become more sedentary, so have our pets' lives. Experts say that our comfortable modern lifestyles are driving a third wave of dog domestication

A study concluded that the hormone - oxytocin - is what drives dogs to seek contact with their owners. 

As humans domesticated wolves into the affectionate pets we know today, canines' sensitivity to oxytocin increased, according to the researchers.

Read More

Puppy love! Playing with dogs leads to a surge in the 'love hormone' in children, study finds 

The study, conducted by researchers at Sweden's Linköping University in 2017, investigated how dogs developed their unique ability to work together with humans, including their willingness to 'ask for help' when faced with a difficult problem.

The researchers suspected that the hormone oxytocin was involved, as it is known to play a role in social relationships between individuals. 

The effect of oxytocin depends on how well it binds to its receptor inside cells. 

Previous studies have shown that variations in genetic material located close to the gene that codes for oxytocin receptors influences dogs' ability to communicate. 

In other words, a dog's social skills are partially ingrained in their genetics - specifically to the genes that control their sensitivity to oxytocin. 

The researchers observed 60 golden retrievers as they attempted to lift a lid off a jar of treats, which was intentionally made impossible to open.

 They also collected DNA swabs from inside the dogs' noses to determine which variant of the oxytocin receptor each one had.

A 2017 study found that service dogs have a higher level of oxytocin - a hormone that facilitates social bonding - than pet dogs

The dogs performed this behavioral test twice, once after receiving a dose of oxytocin nasal spray, and once after receiving a dose of neutral saline nasal spray. 

The team timed the dogs to see how long they would attempt to open the jar themselves before turning to their owner to ask for help. 

The results showed that dogs with a particular genetic variant of the receptor had a stronger reaction to the oxytocin spray than other dogs, and that the oxytocin dose made them more likely to ask for help than the saline dose. 

These findings offer insight into how domestication has altered the genes that influence dogs' social skills. 

Now, canine experts Brian Hare and Vanessa Woods saiddogs' behavioral traits are undergoing a third wave of domestication. 

As the role that these animals play in our lives has shifted from worker to companion, so has their behavior, and perhaps their biology too.

Hare is an evolutionary-anthropology professor at Duke University and the director of the Duke Canine Cognition Center. Woods manages the center's Puppy Kindergarten program, which trains pups to become service dogs.

The Puppy Kindergarten also serves as a long-term research project to assess how different training strategies impact dogs' behavior and cognitive development.

Studying these puppies has convinced Woods and Hare that service dogs are 'uniquely well adapted to life in the 21st century,' they wrote in The Atlantic. 

These dogs are 'highly trained professionals' who can assist their owner with tasks, remain calm and quiet when not actively working, and have uniquely friendly dispositions. 

'Unlike most pet dogs, service dogs are attracted to strangers, even as puppies,' Woods and Hare wrote.

'And increasing friendliness seems to have changed these dogs’ biology, just as it did thousands of years ago,' the researchers added.

These highly trained dogs embody the traits of the ideal canine companion. They fit seamlessly into the lives of their owners and into the modern world. 

'Service dogs fit into the life of their person in a way that many able-bodied dog owners want their pets to fit into theirs,' Woods and Hare wrote.

Even just a few decades ago, dogs were viewed very differently than they are today. They were working animals tasked with jobs like hunting, herding and guarding their home and the people in it - conditioned to be active and on alert. 

Up until the 1990s, dogs spent most of their lives outside. Without the sprawling urbanization we know today, they had plenty of space to roam and explore. 

'If your dog slept on your bed, you would likely wake up covered in ticks or fleas,' the researchers wrote. 

Some behaviors that made dogs appealing to our ancestors to become maladaptive, like guarding against strange people and animals

But today, more dogs live in densely populated areas, and consequently spend a lot more time inside. They also interact with unfamiliar dogs and people more frequently.

This shift has caused some behaviors that made dogs appealing to our ancestors to become maladaptive, Woods and Hare wrote. For example, 'guarding against strange people and animals might make a dog more difficult to walk around the neighborhood.'

'Dogs that are more energetic, excitable, fearful, or anxious than average are more likely to be relinquished to shelters, where they may struggle to find a new home,' they added. 

Woods and Hare believe that these new societal pressures are driving a third wave of canine domestication, with service dogs representing the most highly evolved members of the pack.

'Service dogs may look like your average Labrador retriever, but compared with military working dogs or even the average family Lab, they are almost a different breed,' the researchers wrote. 

'The differences between Canine Companion dogs and pet dogs also demonstrate how different a population of dogs can become in less than 50 years,' they added.

Canine domestication dates back between 40,000 and 14,000 years. The first wave of domestication began when humans lived as foragers, and often left food waste on the outskirts of their settlements.

Wolves that took advantage of this predictable, energy-rich food source gained a survival edge, Woods and Hare say. 'As a result, over generations, the animals’ attraction to humans replaced fear and aggression.'

The second wave began after the Industrial Revolution. During this time, the rising middle class wanted dogs that represented the good taste and disposable income of their owners. 

This prompted Westerners to begin breeding dogs for specific physical traits, ultimately creating most of the 200 dog breeds recognized by the American Kennel Club today, the researchers wrote. 

As we enter a third wave of domestication - one that is more focused on tailoring dogs' personalities to our modern world - Woods and Hare believe that humans should take an active role in facilitating this process. 

'For the happiness of dogs and their owners, humans need to breed and train more dogs like service animals, embarking on a new wave of dog domestication to help them fit into the new world we have created,' they wrote.