Sunday, October 03, 2021

Strike looms over labor conditions on TV and film productions by big streaming services

Devin Coldewey@techcrunch •October 1, 2021

Image Credits: IATSE


A dispute over working conditions at “new media” properties like Netflix, Disney+, Apple TV and others may shut down productions across the country if a strike vote by the union succeeds. Thousands of workers on and off set claim they are not receiving appropriate wages, breaks, safety measures and other needs due to a contractual loophole exempting these companies from established film and TV production labor standards.

The conflict has been widely covered in the entertainment press, with celebrities and studios voicing their support and countless workers sharing horror stories from jobs on these productions.

The issue, as explained by the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, or IATSE, is a 2009 agreement made when companies like Netflix were just starting to get into original productions and didn’t have the kind of labor infrastructure that established studios did. The economics of these “new media” companies being “uncertain,” it was decided that “greater flexibility” would be afforded to them in on-set matters where union rules might impede new and untested entrants.

But that same agreement noted that once these services became more economically viable, then a new agreement should take its place acknowledging that. That time, the IATSE says, has come.

And who could possibly disagree? Netflix is now an industry powerhouse, and billions are being spent by Disney, Apple, and Amazon on some of the most high-profile media productions ever attempted. Yet because they are “new media,” the gaffers and grips on, say, something like the next season of Jack Ryan or Bridgerton don’t have the same guarantees of lunch breaks, hour limits, or proper scale wages as an “old media” production. (Note: I originally listed the Lord of the Rings as an example but this was poorly chosen, as it is a New Zealand-based production and not using IATSE union workers.)



Image Credits: IA_stories / Instagram

That’s not to say that every production under these companies is hell — a lot depends on the producers — but the lack of guarantees has produced what many workers describe as systemic exploitation. It’s taken for granted that they will work longer hours than they are officially paid for, skip holidays and weekends, and so on, while earning less than they would for equivalent work on a production under, say, Universal or A24.

Much ink has been spilled on the huge production efforts of these companies, dropping billions to compete with one another over lucrative subscribers. Each company has dozens of shows being produced simultaneously and on breakneck schedule in order to satisfy the seemingly bottomless demand for content. If we don’t get a new Stranger Things season in time, there’s a good chance something will become “the new Stranger Things” and eat Netflix’s lunch, or rather popcorn.

Comparatively little has been written in the tech world about the human cost of these productions — after all, that’s more on the “entertainment” beat. But it’s par for the course with tech companies to claim the benefits of “innovation” while washing their hands of the repercussions; hardly a week goes by that we don’t hear about some horrible new consequence due to a feature or policy at Facebook, Google, Amazon, Uber, DoorDash or any number of other companies.

It’s not surprising to hear that some of these same companies are fostering an exploitative work environment — many of them rely on one already!

At any rate, negotiations between the IATSE and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers have stalled and the union has formally asked its workers to vote on whether to initiate a strike. If it’s a “yes” when the votes are counted in a few days, there will probably be one last chance for “new media” to make a satisfactory proposal before a huge number of productions are halted.

“We are united in demanding more human working conditions across the industry,” said IATSE president Matthew Loeb in a press release today. “If the mega-corporations that make up the AMPTP remain unwilling to address our core priorities and treat workers with human dignity, it is going to take the combined solidarity of all of us to change their minds.”

Certainly almost everyone involved would prefer not to have to strike, though it would be an impressive demonstration of organized labor’s power to disrupt a plainly hostile industry. Here’s hoping negotiations succeed at last and the production professionals being trodden on by this new crop of media overlords get the breaks they deserve.




Stars like Seth Rogen are backing a strike that could bring Hollywood to a halt.
Here's why.



Marco della Cava, USA TODAY
Fri, October 1, 2021,


OK, entertainment junkies, be prepared to go into withdrawal.

Just when COVID-19 helped us develop a newfound appreciation for – if not an outright dependence on – small- and big-screen entertainment, an industry strike may cause production to grind to a halt.

Unionized workers in charge of rigging lights, doing hair, making sets and just about everything else non-acting related will vote today whether to walk off the job. At issue are better working conditions, say leaders of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, or IATSE.

"How am I supposed to have a family while working 12+ hours a day (even longer when you add commuting)?" wrote would-be striker Kirsten Thorson on Instagram. "I love my job in the film industry but the industry doesn't love me back."

There are hints that some showrunners and directors are already heeding the complaints of crews.

On the Instagram account IATSE Stories, where members can post comments anonymously, one person wrote that "the director on the show I'm on follows this page and after reading how the crew gets treated, has made it a POINT to wrap before we hit 10hrs everyday, not even 12."deserve better," 


Seth Rogen, seen here presenting outstanding supporting actress in a comedy at the 73rd Emmy Awards, has spoken out in support of unionized Hollywood workers. "Our films and movies literally would not exist without our crews, and our crews deserve better," he tweeted.

Top actors are coming out in support of the possible strike, knowing that their jobs wouldn't exist without the armies behind them. And most are themselves part of their own union, the Screen Actors Guild.

"I just spent 9 months working with an incredibly hard working crew of film makers through very challenging conditions," Ben Stiller wrote on Twitter. "Totally support them in fighting for better conditions."

But supporting Hollywood crews does not mean all productions would stop. First off, there are a number of union contracts that are still in effect for another year, such as the one covering pay services such as HBO.

The contract that expired several months ago and led to this negotiation stalemate is focused in part on streaming services such as Netflix, who were issued more generous terms because the future of such services wasn't known back when the ink dried on IATSE's New Media deal in 2009.

And second, a shutdown could still be avoided, given what's at stake for producers and workers alike, says Thomas Lenz, an adjunct lecturer at the University of Southern California Gould School of Law and partner at Pasadena-based Atkinson, Andelson, Loya, Ruud & Romo.

"A 'yes' vote from union members puts them in a good bargaining position, something they can deploy if they need to," says Lenz. "Producers don't really want a disruption in the product they put out, and workers don't want to go long without pay. They could get back to the bargaining table."

We break down the plot:
Q: Which workers are ready to walk?

A: For months, the production workers union has been trying to negotiate a new three-year contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers for its 150,000 workers. These include cinematographers, costumers, script supervisors and grips – essentially, the critical folks who allow the stars to shine. The union has never before gone on strike. If it did this time, an estimated 60,000 of those members currently on jobs are expected to stop working.

The parties have been talking for a while. The current contract was set to expire July 31, but as talks dragged on it was extended to Sept 10. Negotiations for a new three-year deal continued after that, eventually leading to this tense moment.

Lenz says the pandemic's impact on work/life balance is also a factor. "If you're working 10- and 12-hour days routinely, the pandemic may now have caused you to reassess your whole lifestyle and decide if you want to work the same way as you did in the past," he says.
Q: What does the union want?

A: IATSE wants better working conditions and salaries, while AMPTP feels the demands are too financially onerous for an industry that's still reeling from the pandemic. A letter written by IATSE president Matthew Loeb says the aim is “more humane working conditions across the industry, including reasonable rest during and between workdays and on the weekend, equitable pay on streaming productions, and a livable wage floor.” Under the current IATSE New Media deal, for example, streaming services with fewer than 20 million subscribers pay lower wages. Also on the table: making Martin Luther King Jr. Day a holiday for union workers.

"Employers, such as the producers guild here, go into things looking at everything as a cost item," says Lenz. "But the times are a bit different now. Look at all the social justice protests over the past year and something like giving people MLK Day off makes sense. Most employers are waking up to that."

Many pay TV programs would not be affected by a strike of production-side workers, as contracts between producers and the unions differ depending on the type of content in question. HBO's "Succession," for example, would not be in jeopardy from a strike.

Q: Which productions will suffer?

A: Movies, network TV shows and Netflix productions would halt as they fall under the now-expired contract. That means any television series or reality show currently in production might be delivering repeat episodes to fans later this year or early next year.

But a number of popular premium-cable productions – and so-called low-budget theatrical fare – wouldn't be stalled because that union contract is good until the end of 2022. Commercials also are safe. IATSE's agreement with the Association of Independent Commercial Producers runs through Sept. 30, 2022.

“If you are working on commercials or for HBO, Showtime, Starz, Cinemax, BET or another company that has a contract still in effect – you must keep working,” IATSE informed members working on productions for those companies earlier this week. “You will not be a scab!”

Q: What do Hollywood stars think?

A: Would-be strikers have support on social media. Seth Rogen tweeted, "Our films and movies literally would not exist without our crews, and our crews deserve better." "Grace and Frankie” co-stars Lily Tomlin and Jane Fonda shared a photo of themselves on Instagram with raised fists while wearing union T-shirts. Bradley Whitford tweeted that negotiators for AMPTP "refuse to even discuss guaranteed meal breaks or 10 hour turnarounds. That's nuts. If you make a living in front of a camera, now is the time to speak for the people who make it possible."

Q: Is this a new dispute?

A: Consider it another episode in a long-running series. In 1945, 10,500 members of the Confederation of Studio Unions went on strike, shutting down production on the David O. Selznick epic “Duel in the Sun,” starring Gregory Peck. Months went by without a resolution, culminating in riots in front of Warner Bros. studios. More recently, the Writers Guild of America struck in late 2007 for a larger percentage of show profits. The 14-week standoff halted production of TV and movies. After its resolution, economists estimated that the strike cost the Los Angeles economy more than $1 billion.

In this 2007 file photo, Writers Guild of America members strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers in a rally at Fox Plaza in Los Angeles' Century City district.
In this 2007 file photo, Writers Guild of America members strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers in a rally at Fox Plaza in Los Angeles' Century City district.

Q: What happens now?

A: IATSE needs at least 75% of its membership to vote yes to call the strike. Votes are expected to come in over the weekend, and the union could in theory call a strike as early as Monday. Negotiations are likely to continue behind the scenes even as the union mulls officially pulling its workers off the job.

There is an economic incentive to work out a deal. A recent report from the Motion Picture Association of America, using Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2016, indicated that the film and TV industry produces more than 2 million high-paying jobs that in turn funnel nearly $50 billion annually to businesses wherever content is being created.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hollywood strike vote: What could it mean for your favorite TV shows?





“Unsustainable and Unhealthy”: As IATSE Workers Go Public, Pressure Mounts on Studios Amid Looming Strike

As film and TV production ramps up after pandemic shutdowns and this year’s "Great Resignation" ripples across the broader job market, Hollywood crewmembers say over-12-hour workdays, short rest periods and under-$18-an-hour rates are "just cruel."



BY KATIE KILKENNY
Plus Icon
OCTOBER 2, 2021

Makeup artist Kristina Frisch learned quickly that COVID-19 hadn’t slowed the pace of work in film and television production. After accepting her first full-time job following pandemic-related shutdowns, she discovered the gig would entail working six-day weeks for the entire shoot and never being able to break for lunch (she could eat while working). Then, during the shoot, “I went five days without seeing my children,” Frisch says, a new record for her. Overall, after quarantine, “It was like, we got shut down, so we now have to work longer and harder.”


Kristina Frisch, photographed on October 1 in Los Angeles. 
PHOTOGRAPHED BY LEE MORGAN

For months, crewmembers have shared stories like this one on social media, detailing long hours, low wages and grueling work conditions in today’s production environment, against the backdrop of new contract negotiations. Since May, the major crew union, the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees (IATSE), has been hammering out details for a new Basic Agreement with the Association of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP).

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Union leaders have been advocating for more substantial rest periods, higher minimum rates for the lowest-paid crafts, and more streaming compensation and resources for their health and pension plan. Those talks broke down in mid-September, and this weekend, tens of thousands of IATSE members are voting on whether to authorize their international president, Matthew Loeb, to potentially call a strike against the film and television industry. For their part, the AMPTP has said that the union walked away from a “deal-closing comprehensive proposal” that addressed its top concerns. A strong vote in favor of authorization could give union negotiators more leverage in talks, while an overall “no” vote could jeopardize their position.


Colby Bachiller, photographed on September 29 in Los Angeles
 PHOTOGRAPHED BY LEE MORGAN

However the vote pans out, this negotiation period has inspired crewmembers to get increasingly candid about work conditions. As a result, “I think [the larger industry is] finally paying attention,” says script coordinator and Local 871 member Colby Bachiller. “Even before the pandemic, we knew how the rates and the hours were unlivable, unsustainable and unhealthy — but now they’re just cruel.” IATSE members are getting more specific about their concerns, too, raising the alarm about skipped meal breaks, extensive workdays, short rest periods and living standards on their union’s minimum rates. (The AMPTP’s proposal to IATSE included improved rest periods for certain postproduction workers and crewmembers working on first-season TV shows, and a 10-19 percent increase in minimum rates for low-paid crafts, it has said.)

Thanks in part to the popular Instagram account IA Stories, which shares mostly anonymous tales from crewmembers, IATSE workers have become especially vocal about the toll of over-12-hour workdays. Though some productions initially gestured toward trying to implement a 10-hour day, as recommended by the industry’s top guilds when production restarted during the pandemic, “it seemed like a lot of that good-faith stuff did not hold up,” says property master Theresa Corvino, a member of Local 44. “I’ve seen dramatic shifts toward not taking meal breaks at all or meal breaks running hours behind; seeing 14-16 hour days on the regular when the soft promise was 10-hour days; seeing shows running what we refer to as ‘Fraturdays’ just about every weekend.” (“Fraturdays” refer to late Friday shoots that run into the early morning on Saturday, giving crewmembers less rest time before they return to work on Monday.)



Victor P. Bouzi, photographed on October 1 in Los Angeles. 
PHOTOGRAPHED BY LEE MORGAN

Victor P. Bouzi, a sound mixer and Local 695 member, says of some jobs requiring 14- to 20-hour days for weeks, “That wasn’t always the case. This seems to be more of a drive just to get the product out since COVID with all these new streaming platforms that have come out.” One crewmember says they’re “constantly” asked to change time cards when it comes to turnaround invasions. A studio source says the AMPTP offered a daily 10-hour turnaround, with exceptions for feature postproduction, on-call employees and studio publicity, during negotiations. Fraturdays are still an “open item” in negotiations, this source says, adding that during night shoots, “clearly you’re going to have that situation.”

A lack of guaranteed meal breaks makes these long days even more taxing, according to some crewmembers. “I just worked on a feature in Atlanta where we never once had a lunch break. Not once did we have a lunch break for 40 shooting days,” says costumer and Local 705 member Eric Johnson. Union members claim that meal penalties, the fee productions pay when workers miss mandated meal periods, have become so affordable that productions bake them into budgets (Basic Agreement signatories have to pay members of at least some major IATSE locals between $7.50 and $13.50 per half hour after the missed mealtime). And while the extra meal-penalty compensation can be helpful to those with low pay, “after 10 years of [missed meals], you just can’t sustain that,” says Johnson. Some productions advocate for “rolling lunches” where workers step away briefly and/or fill in for one another during an uninterrupted workday so they can grab food, but crewmembers in certain roles — like those in the camera department — say that they can’t realistically leave or have someone else briefly assume their roles.


Eric Johnson, photographed on September 29 in Los Angeles.
 PHOTOGRAPHED BY LEE MORGAN

On social media, IATSE members and their allies have advocated for guaranteed meal breaks. The studio source says the AMPTP offered an “alternative meal break solution,” with rolling lunches being just one of the options discussed, which was rejected. “We feel that people do have an opportunity to actually have a meal on productions by and large,” this studio source adds.

Workers say extra long hours that may have been sustainable when they were younger aren’t now. “When you’re 24 years old, it’s very different than when you’re 44 years old, how your body can handle all that,” says director of photography and Local 600 member Patti Lee, who previously worked as an electrician and gaffer. “You also see a lot of broken people at the end, in their older years.”

Individuals in some of IATSE’s lowest-paid roles say that, beyond long hours, they face additional struggles due to what they describe as unlivable pay. Currently, writers assistants, assistant production coordinators and art department coordinators make a contractual minimum of $16 an hour or a little bit above, while script coordinators make, at minimum, $17.64 an hour. While trying to learn how to make ends meet in her role, Bachiller remembers being advised by support-staff colleagues to, on Fridays, take “all the food that was about to expire from the kitchen and that would be our groceries for the weekend.” She adds, “That was just considered normal, that was just part of paying your dues.” Alison Golub, a writers assistant and Local 871 member, counts herself lucky that she’s an L.A. native and can live at home — “because I can’t afford to pay rent.” A strike would be especially challenging for members in these roles, and Local 871 is currently putting together a program, potentially financed at least in part by a strike fund, to offer financial support to them in the event of a strike; at least one other Local is working on an economic relief program.

Concern over crewmembers’ working hours, rest periods and low wages isn’t new, and has been building steadily for years. According to one union insider who spoke on the condition of anonymity, the issues the union is fighting for this round of negotiations are “the same five or six issues that we have been talking [about] with our employers for a decade,” namely, low wages, long hours, rest periods, compensation from new media, and health and pension plan funding. (“There are some issues that both sides, producers and unions, want to resolve in negotiations,” the studio source counters. “At the end of the day, there have been deals made the last five or six rounds of negotiations, and clearly both sides, including the union, agreed to the contract, so they must have agreed to those lists of priorities.”) The 1997 death of second camera assistant Brent Lon Hershman in a car crash and the 2006 release of Haskell Wexler’s documentary on entertainment’s long working hours, Who Needs Sleep?, ignited similar conversations decades before. Members of the Motion Picture Editors Guild and the Costume Designers Guild have discussed a potential strike for years.

But IATSE members — whose union represents roles as disparate as studio publicists and lighting technicians — are “straight-up united” about these issues in 2021, says Bouzi. Citing the so-called “Great Resignation,” a term describing the recent nationwide surge in resignations across industries, Golub adds, “I think what’s going on in the film industry right now is indicative of what’s going on in the country as a whole.” She says, “I enjoy working in film and television but I also want to have a life outside of it and that’s not unreasonable to ask for.”

In recent days, the umbrella union, and the 36 Locals whose members will cast a ballot, have been keeping their constituency abreast of voting developments via email and text; Locals have also held informational town halls, and members have been using social media, phone-banking and car-painting to urge others to vote yes. In its communications with members, IATSE leaders are encouraging them to vote to authorize a strike and stressing that an authorization does not mean a strike will occur, but is instead a bargaining chip. The union insider notes that most members of their Local that they’ve talked to seem ready to vote yes, but a small number are still unsure. The AMPTP and IATSE do not yet have a set date to return to the negotiating table.

On set, crewmembers say they haven’t heard much chatter from management about a potential strike even as it looms over the industry, threatening productions nationwide. “You know things are being done in a different way than normal because there’s concerns about there being a strike, but nobody is coming out and saying, ‘We’re doing this because of a strike,'” says Corvino. Frisch says it’s strange to see fellow crewmembers wearing “IA Solidarity” T-shirts on set but few people around them talking or asking about it. “Everybody acts like something’s not happening until they absolutely have to deal with it,” she says, “which I understand, really, because you never know what way it’s going to go.”

Union jobs? Ford's plan for new EV factories raises question

Fri., October 1, 2021



NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Ford’s blockbuster announcement this week that it would build four sprawling new factories in Kentucky and Tennessee by 2025 and hire nearly 11,000 workers raised a big unanswered question: Just how good will those jobs be?

No one — not Ford, not the United Auto Workers union, not the future job holders themselves — yet knows how much the workers will be paid or whether they will vote for union membership.

Three of the plants, to be built with Ford's South Korean corporate partner, SK Innovation, would produce batteries for 1 million electric vehicles annually. A fourth would make the next generation of electric F-Series pickup trucks, a version of America's top-selling vehicle.

The new factories represent an $11.4 billion bet by Ford on a vision for the future in which tens of millions of drivers will shift from pollution-belching internal combustion engines to electric vehicles that emit nothing from the tailpipe.

The stakes are high for Ford’s employees as well as for the UAW, which is counting on ensuring union membership at battery factories to replace jobs that will be lost should the transition to electric vehicles happen as Ford and others envision. Union workers generally are paid, on average, 20% more than their nonunion counterparts, typically receive more generous benefits and wield a larger voice on safety and other workplace rules at their factories.

On Monday, when Ford's plans were announced, CEO Jim Farley stopped short of publicly supporting the UAW, saying only that union representation at the plants would be decided by the workers themselves. In Kentucky and Tennessee, states in which unions have often been shunned by workers and opposed by political leaders, representation by the UAW is far from assured.

On Wednesday, Ford said it expected to continue a “strong, mutually beneficial” relationship with the UAW.

“We respect the UAW’s efforts to organize future hourly workers at the new facilities coming to Tennessee and Kentucky,” Ford and SK said in statements.

By stopping short of offering explicit support for union membership at its new plants, experts say, Ford may be trying to appease politicians who have been vocal opponents of union organizing. Political leaders in both states still have to approve money for worker training and other incentives to Ford, said Dan Cornfield, who teaches sociology and political science at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, and the company wouldn't want to jeopardize that support.

“The company is in between its union partners and its state government partners in this,” Cornfield said. “So they probably are not speaking out about unionization one way or the other because they don’t want to antagonize their longstanding partners.”

Not to mention rankle President Joe Biden, who has frequently promoted an industry-wide transition to electric vehicles as a vital way to counter climate change and create “good-paying union jobs.”

A letter attached to Ford’s national contract with the UAW pledges that the company will remain neutral when the union tries to organize any new factories. It will agree to “card check” sign-up efforts, which let unions recruit workers to sign cards saying they want to be represented. Once 51% of workers sign on, the plant becomes union.

Generally, that’s the union’s favored way of organizing plants. But in Southern states, card check doesn’t mean automatic union factories. Kentucky and Tennessee have “right-to-work” laws, which bar companies from signing deals that force workers to pay union dues.

In Tennessee, in particular, political leaders, including Republican Gov. Bill Lee, have fought the UAW, which lost recent factory-wide organizing votes at a Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga. In opposing the UAW, Lee argued that union membership would make it harder for the state to recruit other manufacturers.

“It is more difficult to attract companies into states that have a high level of organized union activity,” Lee said ahead of a 2019 vote at VW. “For that reason, I think that Volkswagen remaining a merit shop facility is beneficial to the economy of Tennessee.”

Difficult as it is, union organizing in the South is not impossible. The UAW already represents nearly 16,000 hourly workers at two Ford plants in Louisville and at a General Motors complex in Spring Hill, Tennessee.

UAW President Ray Curry, who attended the Tennessee ceremony this week, said he didn't think Ford had chosen sites in Stanton, Tennessee, and Glendale, Kentucky, to avoid the UAW. He expressed optimism about organizing the new factories.

“We’ve got a long-term working relationship with Ford," Curry said. “It’s just a great opportunity to continue in that relationship.”

Todd Dunn, president of the UAW local office in Louisville, sounded hopeful, too. He said he regarded the remarks this week by Ford's CEO Farley as cautionary in a politically charged environment.

“I think that might be them saying, ‘Hey, in a right-to-work state, we’re going to make sure they (workers) have their choice.' "

The union, Dunn said, will campaign on a promise to seek better wages and benefits, health and safety advocacy and a greater voice for workers.

The new Ford site in Stanton, Tennessee, lies in rural Haywood County, about 50 miles east of Memphis, one of only a few counties in the state that voted for Biden in the 2020 election. That bodes well for union organization, Vanderbilt’s Cornfield said. Unions historically have succeeded in the South, he said, when they organize branch operations of companies from the North that already are unionized.

“On the other hand," Cornfield noted, “the Southern political climate in terms of government tends to be Republican and opposed to unionization.”

Tennessee's “right to work” law has existed for more than seven decades. Republican state lawmakers have already established a question for the 2022 ballot asking voters whether that law should be enshrined in the Tennessee Constitution, further complicating the conversation for Ford.

So far, Republican U.S. Sens. Bill Hagerty and Marsha Blackburn haven't publicly opposed a union at the Ford facilities, which are still years away from opening. But both stressed the state's right-to-work law, with Hagerty saying he hopes future workers who will decide whether to unionize “will be mindful of the pro-business, pro-competition and pro-worker policies of Tennessee.”

The Ford plants could raise the standard of living in Haywood County and those surrounding it. Workers at union auto assembly plants earn an average of around $32 an hour, compared with the national average auto manufacturing wage of $25. But in Tennessee, Cornfield said, production workers in all industries are paid an average of only $19 an hour.

Auto companies generally want to pay less at plants that make parts, such as batteries, rather than assemble vehicles. But the UAW will seek assembly-plant wages at those facilities.

It may be easier for the union to organize in Kentucky, a solidly red state but one with a Democratic governor who supports the UAW. Glendale is about 50 miles south of Louisville, a union stronghold that includes the only unionized teachers in the state, said Kenneth Troske, an economics professor at the University of Kentucky.

The state has some history with unions in coal mining and auto production and only recently, in 2017, did it pass a “right to work” law.

But it has voted solidly Republican of late. And a huge Toyota factory in the center part of the state has remained nonunion.

“We used to be a pretty strongly pro-union state,” Troske said. “That certainly has changed. We are Republican. We are as red as red gets now.”

___

This story was first published on Sept. 30, 2021. It was updated on Oct. 1, 2021 to correct a reference to Tennessee auto manufacturing workers making an average of $19 per hour. The $19 figure is for production workers in all industries.

Krisher reported from Detroit and Schreiner from Louisville, Kentucky. AP writer Adrian Sainz contributed from Stanton, Tennessee.

Tom Krisher, Jonathan Mattise And Bruce Schreiner, The Associated Press
Climate change: Arctic's unknown viruses' and nuclear waste

BBC
Published2 days ago
Some of the nine million square feet of Arctic ice is more than a million years old

A rapidly warming Arctic could cause the spread of nuclear waste, undiscovered viruses and antibiotic resistant bacteria, a report has found.

It said potential radioactive waste from Cold War nuclear submarines and reactors and damage from mining could be released as the ice melts.

The nine million square miles of Artic dates to about a million years old.

Co-author Dr Arwyn Edwards from Aberystwyth University said much of the Arctic is still unknown.

Writing in Nature Climate Change, Dr Edwards co-authored report with academics from universities in the United States and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California.

The Arctic houses a diverse range of chemical compounds whether through natural processes, accidents or deliberate storage.

Nuclear waste, viruses and chemicals


Thawing permafrost, or permanently frozen land, has widely been seen as a contributor to greenhouse gas emissions as massive stores of Arctic soil carbon are released to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane, as well as causing abrupt change to the landscape.

However, the research found the implications are more widespread and less understood - with potential for the release of nuclear waste and radiation, unknown viruses and other chemicals of concern.

The Soviet K-27 submarine was sunk in the Kara Sea in 1981 after a fatal nuclear leak




Between 1955 and 1990, the Soviet Union conducted 130 nuclear weapons tests in the atmosphere and near surface ocean of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago off the coast of north-west Russia.

The tests used 224 separate explosive devices, releasing about 265 megatons of nuclear energy and more than 100 decommissioned nuclear submarines were scuttled in the nearby Kara and Barents seas.

Despite a Russian government launching a strategic clean-up plan, the review notes the area has tested highly for the radioactive substances caesium and plutonium, between undersea sediment, vegetation and ice sheets.

The United States' Camp Century nuclear-powered under-ice research facility in Greenland also produced considerable nuclear and diesel waste.

Decommissioned in 1967, waste was left in the accumulating ice, which faces a longer term threat from changes to the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The 1968 Thule bomber crash in the same country also dispersed huge amounts of plutonium on the Greenland ice sheet.

I
The Arctic abrupt thawing has been seen as a contributor of greenhouse gas emissions as stores of Arctic soil carbon are released to the atmosphere

Antibiotic resistant bacteria?


Deep permafrost of more than three metres is one of the few environments on Earth that has not been exposed to modern antibiotics.

More than 100 diverse microorganisms in Siberian deep permafrost have been found to be antibiotic resistant and as permafrost thaws, there is potential for these to mix with meltwater and create new antibiotic-resistant strains of existing bacteria.

Where the layers of permafrost are exposed suddenly and haphazardly, increasing the opportunity for the release of multiple years of species simultaneously.



What about fossil fuels?

By-products of fossil fuels have been introduced into permafrost environments since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution

As well as by-products of fossil fuels being in the environments since the start of the Industrial Revolution, the Arctic also contained natural metal deposits, including arsenic, mercury and nickel.

The mining of these for decades has caused huge contamination from waste material across tens of millions of hectares, according to the report.

High concentration pollutants and chemicals previously stored within the permafrost could be released back into atmosphere as it melts and increased water flows mean it can disperse widely, damaging animal and bird species as well as entering the human food chain.

More than 1,000 settlements, whether resource extraction, military and scientific projects, have been created on permafrost during the last 70 years and that, coupled with the local populace, increases the likelihood of accidental contact or release.

The report said despite its findings, it is still poorly understood and largely unquantified and further in-depth research in the area is vital to gain further insight into the risks.

The permafrost is melting "abruptly", says the report

Dr Arwyn Edwards, from Aberystwyth University, said: "Changes in the Arctic's climate and ecology will influence every part of the planet as it feeds carbon back to the atmosphere and raises sea levels.

"This review identifies how other risks can arise from the warming Arctic. It has long been a deep-freezer for a range of harmful things, not just greenhouse gases.

"We need to understand more about the fate of these harmful microbes and pollutants and nuclear materials to properly understand the threats they may pose.

"It is imperative demonstrable action is taken at next month's COP26 summit as these findings should concern anybody. As well as fulfilling the targets of the Paris Agreement and reducing the increase in the global climate temperature to 1.5 Celsius, there needs to be a strong and immediate commitment to funding research in this area.

"What should worry us is how much we have still yet to learn about the Arctic, how important it is to all of our futures and why it is worth protecting."

“Mega Comet” Heading Our Way Is Probably The Largest Ever Seen




ARTIST'S IMPRESSION OF C/2014 UN271 (BERNARDINELLI-BERNSTEIN), 
THE LARGEST AND MOST PRISTINE COMET WE HAVE EVER SEEN. 
IMAGE CREDIT: NOIRLAB/NSF/AURA/J. DA SILVA (SPACEENGINE) CC-BY-4.0


By Stephen Luntz 30 SEP 2021,


In June this year, two astronomers discovered probably the largest comet ever seen, an object so big there was initial debate if it might really be a dwarf planet on a comet-like orbit. This "mega comet" is on an inward-bound trajectory from the outer Solar System.

Now, its discoverers and many co-authors have reported the results of three months spent learning more about this exceptional object. A paper accepted by the Astrophysical Journal Letters (preprint on ArXiv.org) reveals plenty we didn't know about this world when its existence hit the news.

Anyone learning about C/2014 UN271 (Bernardinelli-Bernstein) for the first time needn’t worry, though. Even at its closest approach in 2031, UN271 will be more distant than Saturn at around 11 astronomical units away ((1 AU = distance from Earth to the Sun), frustrating astronomers who would love a closer look at something this unusual.

UN271's orbit has been traced, and its last approach to the Sun was around 3.5 million years ago. On that occasion it only got to 18 astronomical units away, almost twice the distance it will reach this time and around the distance to Uranus. It's likely to soon be the closest to the Sun it has ever been, making it the most pristine comet we have ever seen, a true throw-back to the Solar System's origins.

Early numbers for UN271's size were inevitably imprecise. However, the authors have now settled on an estimate of 150 kilometers (100 miles) across. That gives it a volume thousands of times a typical comet, and at least 10 times bigger than even a giant like Hale-Bopp. For comparison, comet 67P, which Rosetta studied, is only 2.6 miles (4.3 kilometers) across, and Arrakoth, the furthest world humanity has ever explored, is 22 miles (35 kilometers) long and 12 miles (20 kilometers) wide.

 

There were hopes of getting more certainty on the size when UN271 passed in front of a star as seen from Eastern Australia, but cloud covered the entire region from which the event might have been seen. However big, though, the comet won't be visible to the naked eye when it makes its close approach.

One of the first things astronomers wanted to know about UN271 was whether it was already showing cometary activity, that is having material turn to gas and form a coma. UN271 had been photographed by both TESS, NASA's planet-hunter, and the Dark Energy Survey (DES) in 2018 without anyone noticing its significance, so the authors checked the earlier images to see if they could find tell-tale signs of fuzziness.

They found a discrepancy in the measurements, with TESS reporting an object almost twice as bright. It turns out the reason was that DES was looking at only a small area around UN271, while TESS was aggregating over a bigger space, including a large, but faint coma, indicating material had been escaping for a long time. The coma's composition cannot yet be detected, but carbon dioxide carrying dust grains with it as it escapes is thought most likely.

UN271's tail is fainter still, requiring the combination of many images to detect it at all.

“It is usually a losing proposition to speculate on the future behavior of comets,” the paper acknowledges, but nevertheless projects that at its brightest UN271 should be around magnitude 9 – visible to amateurs with small telescopes under dark skies.

Some astronomers are keen to get a mission going to UN271, calculating the best time for a flyby is 2033, which would require a launch by 2028.
NOTHING TO TALK ABOUT
Enbridge says still willing to talk on Line 5, despite Michigan's frustration

Fri., October 1, 2021



WASHINGTON — The Canadian architect of the controversial Line 5 cross-border pipeline expansion project said Friday it remains committed to a negotiated solution to its impasse with the state of Michigan, even though the government has effectively walked away from the table.

Both sides are obliged by court order to engage in a good-faith effort to resolve the dispute, and Enbridge Inc. "remains ready to do just that," the Calgary-based pipeline giant said in a statement.

"Our goal from the beginning has been to work co-operatively to reconcile interests, resolve disputes and move forward in the best interest of people throughout the region," the company said.

"We believe in the process and participated in mediation in good faith. We are committed to continuing to seek resolution, whether through mediation or by asserting our rights in the courts if necessary."

Line 5 ferries upwards of 540,000 barrels per day of crude oil and natural gas liquids across the Canada-U.S. border and the Great Lakes by way of a twin line that runs along the lake bed beneath the ecologically sensitive Straits of Mackinac, which connect Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.

Proponents call it a vital and indispensible source of energy — particularly propane — for several midwestern states, including Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and a key source of feedstock for critical refineries on the northern side of the border, including those that supply jet fuel to some of Canada's busiest airports.

Critics, however, among them Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, want the line shut down, arguing it's only a matter of time before an anchor strike or technical failure triggers a catastrophic environmental disaster in one of the area's most important watersheds.

That's why last November, Whitmer abruptly revoked the easement that had allowed the pipeline to operate since 1953, giving the company until May to voluntarily cease operations and triggering a court case that has only dragged on since then.

Enbridge has insisted from the outset that it has no plans to voluntarily shut down the pipeline.


"We understand the stakes in this matter are important not only for Enbridge and the state, but for many others on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border who have a strong interest in its outcome," the company said.

"Meanwhile, we will continue to safely and responsibly deliver the energy the region relies upon from the Line 5 system."

A court-sanctioned voluntary mediation process, which began in April, has failed to yield any agreement and appears to have fallen apart, although the official status of those talks is difficult to divine.

Following the last meeting Sept. 9, Michigan's emissaries "unambiguously communicated to the mediator that any further continuation of the mediation process would be unproductive for them, and they have no 'desire to continue with the mediation process,'" court documents show.

Michigan District Court Judge Janet Neff, however, appears reluctant to call a halt to the process.

"Voluntary facilitative mediation necessarily requires voluntary participation by both parties," Neff said in a decision last week that dismissed as moot one of the state's motions aimed at short-circuiting the talks.

The process, Neff wrote, "is at least at a standstill, although the parties remain under a continuing obligation to engage in good faith to resolve this case."

Where that leaves matters is unclear. The attorney general's office in Michigan refused to comment Friday, referring media inquiries back to the court documents.

Enbridge has also pointed to a possible "diplomatic solution" under a 1977 U.S.-Canada treaty covering cross-border pipelines, which the Canadian government has argued applies in this case and obliges the court to step aside in favour of a negotiated bilateral settlement.

Environmental groups, meanwhile, have been unequivocal in their opposition to the pipeline and a potential replacement project.

Cathy Collentine, associate director of the Sierra Club's "Beyond Dirty Fuels" campaign, said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is in the process of an environmental impact assessment on the Line 5 project. It would then be up to the White House to decide whether to take action based on the findings, she said.


If President Joe Biden's administration is serious about confronting climate change, the most contentious cross-border pipeline projects of the last 15 years — Keystone XL, Line 5 and also Line 3, another Enbridge upgrade, this one in Minnesota — are the ones they should be blocking, Collentine said.

Such projects, with their capacity to increase fossil fuel production and consumption, are already affecting communities on the front lines of climate change, she said.

"Those are the exact projects that we have long said we cannot continue to build, we cannot continue to approve," Collentine said.

"It's a moment where the Biden administration, through these analyses, we believe should and hopefully will see that that is also true and not allow these projects to move forward or to continue operating."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 1, 2021.

James McCarten, The Canadian Press

Researchers suggest a way to achieve net-zero emission plastics

plastic ocean
Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

A team of researchers with members affiliated with institutions in Germany, Switzerland and the U.S. has created a model that they claim could be used to achieve net-zero-emission plastics by 2050. In their paper published in the journal Science, the group outlines their model and requirements for implementation.

A host of studies has shown that the production and  has become a significant environmental problem as it breaks down into microplastics, it makes its way into virtually every water source on the planet, resulting in  for organisms. Production of plastic is also a significant contributor to  due to the gasses emitted during manufacture. In this new effort, the researchers analyzed the data produced by over 400 research efforts aimed at solving the plastics problem and developed a model that they say could lead to a net-zero-emission-plastic world by 2050.

The model implements a cycle built around combining recycling of plastics with chemical reduction of the carbon dioxide they emit when they are burned or collected from biomass. They suggest a recycling rate as low as 70% would be sufficient to reach net-zero emissions, which would result in  of 34 to 53%. They also suggest that the operational costs involved would be on a par with other carbon-capture processes. They further suggest that the cost savings associated with implementing their model globally would amount to approximately $288 billion annually. They point out that production of plastics now accounts for approximately 6 percent of  and note that current forecasts suggest that the number could grow to 20% over the next 30 years if things continue as they are now. They conclude that the technology exists to solve the plastics problem—all that is needed to solve it is the will to do so.

Plastic in the UK: Practical and pervasive—but problematic
More information: Raoul Meys et al, Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emission plastics by a circular carbon economy, Science (2021). DOI: 10.1126/science.abg9853
Journal information: Science 
Provided by Science X Network
BLOWN OVER 
Germany: Wind turbine collapses hours before official launch


The Associated Press
Thursday, September 30, 2021 

Remains of the tower of a wind turbine stand in the forest in Haltern, Germany, Thursday, Sept.30, 2021. The wind turbine, which is almost 240 metres high, has collapsed. (Guido Bludau/dpa via AP)

BERLIN -- Officials in Germany are investigating why a huge wind turbine collapsed just hours before it was due to be officially inaugurated.

The turbine, whose rotor blades reach a height of 239 metres, toppled over late Wednesday in a forest near the western town of Haltern.

German news agency dpa reported Thursday that police were not currently suspecting sabotage.

The wind turbine was scheduled to be officially launched Thursday, though it was connected to the power grid six months ago.

Germany is trying to ramp up its use of renewable energy such as wind and solar as part of a transition away from fossil fuels and nuclear power.

COSMOLOGY

WHAT HAPPENED BEFORE THE BIG BANG? 

A NASA ASTROPHYSICIST ANWSERS 

Thanks to time-traveling telescopes, we can see more about the Big Bang

VIDEO with Michelle Thaller

DESCRIPTION

One of the biggest misconceptions in science is that the Big Bang came out of nothing – according to astrophysicist Michelle Thaller, this is not correct. 

13.8 billion years ago right before the Big Bang, our universe existed within one tiny, compressed atom. But what we know now is that this one atom was not our entire universe. 

According to Thaller, there were trillions of atoms, all with their own universe inside. Today, we can only know of our observable universe, but there is far more out there than what meets the eye.

Dr. Michelle Thaller is an astronomer who studies binary stars and the life cycles of stars. She is Assistant Director of Science Communication at NASA. 



Ask Ethan: Will dark energy cause the Big Bang to disappear?

If we were born trillions of years in the future, could we even figure out our cosmic history?

The farther away we look, the closer in time we’re seeing towards the Big Bang. In the far future, there will be an enormous distance separating even the closest galaxies from the local group, but with enough motivation and a little luck, even a far-future civilization, in a universe dominated by dark energy, could still uncover the Big Bang origin of the universe. (Credit: Robin Dienel/Carnegie Institution for Science)

KEY TAKEAWAYS


Dark energy is causing the universe's expansion to accelerate, driving galaxies and light farther away from us.


In the far future, no signals beyond our Local Group will remain visible, eliminating the evidence we used to discover the Big Bang.


But a series of very clever measurements, if we're savvy enough to make them, could still reveal our cosmic history to us.


Ethan Siegel

13.8 billion years ago, the universe as we know it ⁠— full of matter and radiation, expanding and cooling and gravitating ⁠— came into existence with the onset of the hot Big Bang. Today, we can see and measure the signals that travel to us from enormous cosmic distances, enabling us to successfully reconstruct the universe’s history and how we came to be. But as time passes, a novel form of energy in our universe — dark energy — increasingly dominates the expansion of space. As dark energy takes over, it accelerates the universe’s expansion, which gradually removes the key information needed to draw the conclusions we’ve reached today.

It’s enough to make one wonder: If we were born in the far future instead of today, would we be able to learn about the Big Bang at all? That’s what Patreon supporter Aaron Weiss wanted to know, asking:

“[A]t some point in the future, all objects not gravitationally bound to us will recede away. [T]he only points of light in the night sky will be objects in our Local Group. At that point in time, will there be any evidence of the universe’s expansion that might suggest to future astronomers that there are/were stars and galaxies beyond what would be visible to them? Would they have lines-of-site that lead to nothing but the CMB?”

Does our ability to answer fundamental questions about the universe hinge upon when and where we happen to exist in cosmic history? Let’s look to the far future to find out.

The cosmic microwave background appears very different to observers at different redshifts, because they’re seeing it as it was earlier in time. In the far future, this radiation will shift into the radio and its density will drop rapidly, but it will never disappear entirely. (Credit: NASA/BlueEarth; ESO/S. Brunier; NASA/WMAP)

Today, there are four major pieces of evidence that we typically consider as the cornerstones of the hot Big Bang. The whole reason we consider the Big Bang as the unchallenged scientific consensus is because it’s the only framework, consistent with the laws of physics (like Einstein’s General Relativity), that explains the following four observations:

the expanding universe, discovered through the redshift-distance relation for galaxies
the abundance of the light elements, as measured through various gas clouds, nebulae, and stellar populations across the universe

the leftover glow from the Big Bang, which is today’s cosmic microwave background, as directly detected via microwave and radio observatories

the growth of large-scale structure in the universe, as revealed by galaxy evolution and their clumping and clustering patterns seen across cosmic time


It’s important to remember that cosmology, like all branches of the astronomical sciences, is fundamentally driven by observations. Whatever our theories predict, we can only compare them to observations in the universe. The way we discovered each of these phenomena in our universe has its own remarkable story, but it’s a story that won’t be around permanently for us to always observe.

The growth of the cosmic web and the large-scale structure in the Universe, shown here with the expansion itself scaled out, results in the Universe becoming more clustered and clumpier as time goes on. Initially small density fluctuations will grow to form a cosmic web with great voids separating them. However, once the nearest galaxies recede to too-great distances, we will have extraordinary difficulty in reconstructing the evolutionary history of our cosmos. (Credit: Volker Springel)

The reason is straightforward: the conclusions that we draw are informed by the light that we can observe. When we look out at the universe with our best modern tools, we see lots of objects within our own galaxy — the Milky Way — as well as many objects whose light originates from far beyond our own cosmic backyard. Although this is something we take for granted, perhaps we shouldn’t. After all, the conditions in our universe today won’t be the same as those in the distant future.

Our home galaxy currently extends a little over 100,000 light-years in diameter, and it contains roughly ~400 billion stars, as well as copious amounts of gas, dust, and dark matter, with a wide variety of stellar populations: old and young, red and blue, low-mass and high-mass, and containing both small and large fractions of heavy elements. Beyond that, we have perhaps 60 other galaxies within the Local Group (within about ~3 million light-years), and somewhere around 2 trillion galaxies littered throughout the visible universe. By looking at objects farther away in space, we’re actually measuring them over cosmic time, which enables us to reconstruct the history of the universe.

Fewer galaxies are seen nearby and at great distances than at intermediate ones, but that’s due to a combination of galaxy mergers, evolution, and our inability to see the ultra-distant, ultra-faint galaxies themselves. Many different effects are at play when it comes to understanding how the light from the distant universe gets redshifted. 
(Credit: NASA / ESA)

The problem, however, is that the universe isn’t merely expanding, but that the expansion is accelerating due to the existence and properties of dark energy. We understand that the universe is a struggle — a race, of sorts — between two main players:

the initial expansion rate that the universe was “born” with at the onset of the hot Big Bang

the sum total of all the various forms of matter and energy within the universe


The initial expansion compels the fabric of space to expand, stretching all unbound objects farther and farther away from one another. Based on the total energy density of the universe, gravitation works to counteract that expansion. As a result, you can imagine three possible fates for the universe:
expansion wins, and there isn’t enough gravitation in all the existing “stuff” to counteract the initial large expansion, and everything expands forever
gravitation wins, and the universe expands to a maximum size and then recollapses
a situation between the two, where the expansion rate asymptotes to zero, but never reverses itself

That was what we expected. But it turns out that the universe is doing a fourth, and rather unexpected, thing.

The different possible fates of the universe, with our actual, accelerating fate shown at the right. After enough time goes by, the acceleration will leave every bound galactic or supergalactic structure completely isolated in the universe, as all the other structures accelerate irrevocably away. We can only look to the past to infer dark energy’s presence and properties, which require at least one constant. But its implications are larger for the future. (Credit: NASA & ESA)

For the first few billion years of our cosmic history, it appeared as though we were right on the border between eternal expansion and an eventual recontraction. If you were to observe distant galaxies over time, each would have continued to recede from us. However, their inferred recession speed — as determined from their measured redshifts — appeared to slow down over time. That’s just what you’d expect for a matter-rich universe that was expanding.

But about six billion years ago, those same galaxies suddenly started to recede from us more quickly. In fact, the inferred recession speed of every object that isn’t already gravitationally bound to us — i.e., that’s outside of our Local Group — has been increasing over time, a finding that’s been confirmed by a wide suite of independent observations.

The culprit? There must be a new form of energy permeating the universe that’s inherent to the fabric of space, which doesn’t dilute but rather maintains a constant energy density as time goes on. This dark energy has come to dominate the energy budget of the universe, and will take over entirely in the far future. As the universe continues to expand, matter and radiation get less dense, but dark energy’s density remains constant
.
While matter (both normal and dark) and radiation become less dense as the Universe expands owing to its increasing volume, dark energy is a form of energy inherent to space itself. As new space gets created in the expanding universe, the dark energy density remains constant. In the far future, dark energy will be the only component of the universe important for determining our cosmic fate. 
(Credit: E. Siegel/Beyond the Galaxy)

This will have many effects, but one of the more fascinating things that will occur is that our Local Group will remain gravitationally bound together. Meanwhile, all of the other galaxies, galaxy groups, galaxy clusters, and any larger structures will all accelerate away from us. If we had come into existence at a later date after the Big Bang — 100 billion or even a few trillion years after the Big Bang, as opposed to 13.8 billion years — most of the evidence we presently use to infer the Big Bang would, by then, be completely removed from our view of the universe.

Our first hint of the expanding universe came from measuring the distance to, and the redshifts of, the nearest galaxies beyond our own. Today, those galaxies are only a few million, to a few tens of millions, light-years away from us. They’re bright and luminous, easily revealed with the smallest telescopes or even a pair of binoculars. But in the far future, the galaxies of the Local Group will all merge together, and even the closest galaxies beyond our Local Group will have receded away to tremendously large distances and incredible faintnesses. Once enough time passes, even today’s most powerful telescopes, would reveal not a single galaxy beyond our own, even if they were to observe the abyss of empty space for weeks on end

.
Looking back through cosmic time in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field, ALMA traced the presence of carbon-monoxide gas. This enabled astronomers to create a three-dimensional image of the star-forming potential of the cosmos, with gas-rich galaxies shown in orange. In the far future, larger, longer-wavelength observatories will be required to reveal even the closest galaxies. 
(Credit: R. Decarli (MPIA); ALMA (ESO/NAOJ/NRAO))

This accelerated expansion, brought on by the dominance of dark energy, would also steal from us critical information about the other cornerstones of the Big Bang.
Without any other galaxies or clusters/groups of galaxies to observe beyond our own, there’s no way to measure the large-scale structure of the universe, and infer how matter clumped, clustered, and evolved throughout it.
Without populations of gas and dust outside of our own galaxy, particularly with different abundances of heavy elements, there’s no way to reconstruct the early, initial abundance of the lightest elements before the formation of stars.
After a tremendous amount of time, there will be no cosmic microwave background anymore, as that leftover radiation from the Big Bang will become so sparse and low-energy, stretched and rarified by the expansion of the universe, that it will no longer be detectable.

On the surface, it appears that with all four of today’s cornerstones gone, we’d be completely unable to learn about our true cosmic history and the early, hot, dense stage that gave rise to the universe as we know it. Instead, we’d see that whatever our Local Group becomes — likely an evolved, gas-free, and potentially elliptical galaxy — it would appear that we were all alone in an otherwise empty universe.

The galaxy shown at the center of the image here, MCG+01-02-015, is a barred spiral galaxy located inside a great cosmic void. It is so isolated that if humanity were located in this galaxy instead of our own and developed astronomy at the same rate, we wouldn’t have detected the first galaxy beyond our own until we reached technology levels only achieved in the 1960s. In the far future, every inhabitant in the universe will have an even more difficult time reconstructing our cosmic history. 
(Credit: ESA/Hubble & NASA, N. Gorin (STScI), Acknowledgement: Judy Schmidt)

But that doesn’t mean we’ll have no signals at all that could lead us to conclusions concerning our cosmic origins. Many clues would still remain, both theoretically and observationally. With a clever enough species investigating them, they might be able to draw correct inferences about the hot Big Bang, which could then be borne out through the process of scientific investigation.

Here’s how a species from the far future could figure it all out.

Theoretically, once we discovered the present law of gravity — Einstein’s general relativity — we could apply it to the entire universe, arriving at the same early solutions that we discovered here on Earth during the 1910s and the 1920s, including the solution for an isotropic and homogeneous universe. We would discover that a static universe that was filled with “stuff” was unstable, and therefore must be expanding or contracting. Mathematically, we would work out the consequences of an expanding universe as a toy model. But on the surface, the universe would appear to be exhibiting a steady-state solution. However, observational clues would still exist.

The cluster Terzan 5 has many older, lower-mass stars present within (faint, and in red), but also hotter, younger, higher-mass stars, some of which will generate iron and even heavier elements. It contains a mix of Population I and Population II stars, indicating that this cluster underwent multiple episodes of star formation. The different properties of different generations can lead us to draw conclusions about the initial abundances of the light elements.
 (Credit: NASA/ESA/Hubble/F. Ferraro)

First off, stellar populations within our own galaxy would still come in tremendous varieties. The longest-lived stars in the universe can persist for many trillions of years. New episodes of star formation, although they’d become somewhat rare, should still occur, as long as our Local Group’s gas doesn’t become totally depleted. Through the science of stellar astronomy, this means we’d still be able to determine not only the age of various stars, but their metallicities: the abundances of the heavy elements with which they were born. Just as we do today, we’d be able to extrapolate back to “before the first stars formed, how abundant were the various elements,” and we would find the same abundances of helium-3, helium-4, and deuterium that the science of Big Bang nucleosynthesis yields today.

We could then look for three specific signals:
The severely redshifted leftover glow from the Big Bang, with just a few extremely long-wavelength radio-frequency photons arriving from all over the sky. A large, ultra-cool radio observatory in space could find it, but we’d have to know how to build it.
An even more severe and obscure signal would arise from very early times: the 21-cm spin-flip transition of hydrogen. When you form a hydrogen atom from protons and electrons, 50% of the atoms have aligned spins and 50% have anti-aligned spins. Over timescales of around ~10 million years, the aligned atoms will “flip” their spins, emitting radiation of a very specific wavelength that gets redshifted. If we knew the wavelength and sensitivity ranges in which we needed to look, we could detect this background.
The ultra-distant, ultra-faint galaxies that lie at the edge of the universe but never fully disappear from our view. This would require building a telescope large enough and in the proper wavelength band. We’d just have to know enough to justify building something so resource-intensive to look to such great distances, despite not having any direct evidence of such objects nearby.

This artist’s rendering shows a night view of the Extremely Large Telescope in operation on Cerro Armazones in northern Chile. The telescope is shown using lasers to create artificial stars high in the atmosphere. A larger, longer-wavelength observatory, most probably in space, will be required to reveal even the nearest galaxies in the far future. 
(Credit: ESO/L. Calçada.)

It’s an incredibly tall order to imagine the universe as it will be in the far future, when all of the evidence that led us to our present conclusions is no longer accessible to us. Instead, we have to think about what will be present and observable — both obviously and only if you figure out how to search for it — and then imagine a path towards discovery. Even though the task will be more difficult hundreds of billions, or even trillions, of years from now, a civilization smart and savvy enough would be able to create their own “four cornerstones” of cosmology that led them to the Big Bang.

The strongest clues would come from the same theoretical considerations we applied back in the early days of Einstein’s general relativity and the observational science of stellar astronomy, in particular an extrapolation to the primordial abundances of the light elements. From those pieces of evidence, we could figure out how to predict the existence and properties of the leftover glow from the Big Bang, the spin-flip transition of neutral hydrogen, and eventually the ultra-distant, ultra-faint galaxies that can still be observed. It won’t be an easy task. But if uncovering the nature of reality is at all important to a far-future civilization, it can be done. Whether they succeed, however, is entirely up to how much they’re willing to invest.

Send in your Ask Ethan questions to startswithabang at gmail dot com!



'MAYBE' TECH

  

POWERING THE FUTURE
The race is on to replicate the power of the sun with fusion energy

PUBLISHED FRI, OCT 1 2021
Katie Brigham
@KATIE_BRIGHAM

The idea of fusion power has intrigued scientists for nearly 100 years, when they first discovered the process that powers the sun and stars. A fusion reaction, which occurs when atoms fuse together, could generate four times more energy than today’s fission reactors, and about four million times more than burning coal, without producing any greenhouse gases. 

Additionally, the process does not generate long-term radioactive waste, fusion reactors cannot melt down, and fusion fuel (hydrogen) is readily available. Once scientists finally manage to create a sustained fusion reaction, it could be a huge game-changer for the energy industry.

ITER, a $22 billion dollar international megaproject in the south of France, is the best-funded fusion endeavor, paid for by the governments of its seven member nations. It hopes to be the first to demonstrate the viability of fusion by generating more energy than it consumes. But venture capitalists and billionaire investors are also pouring money into fusion start-ups, with hopes to commercialize fusion power within the next decade.

Can This $22 Billion Megaproject Make Nuclear Fusion Power A Reality?

Fusion is the process that powers the sun and the stars, and scientists are getting a lot closer to replicating it here on Earth. ITER, the $22 billion dollar international fusion megaproject in the south of France, is the most well-funded endeavor, paid for by the governments of its member nations. But VC’s and private investors are also pouring money into fusion start-ups, with hopes to commercialize fusion power within the next decade. With a number of breakthroughs already this year, the race is on to prove that fusion power is not only possible, but integral to a clean energy future.


Scientists Uncover an Additional Threat to Antarctica’s Floating Ice Shelves

Ice Melange in Antarctica

Ice melange, a combination of ice shelf fragments, windblown snow and frozen seawater, can act as a glue to fuse large rifts in floating ice in Antarctica. Researchers at UCI and NASA JPL found that a thinning of the substance over time can cause rifts to open, leading to the calving of large icebergs. Credit: Beck / NASA Operation IceBridge

Thinning of rift-healing slush is identified as a major cause of iceberg calving events.

Glaciologists at the University of California, Irvine and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have examined the dynamics underlying the calving of the Delaware-sized iceberg A68 from Antarctica’s Larsen C ice shelf in July 2017, finding the likely cause to be a thinning of ice melange, a slushy concoction of windblown snow, iceberg debris and frozen seawater that normally works to heal rifts.

In a paper published on September 27, 2021, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the researchers report that their modeling studies showed melange thinning to be a major driver of ice shelf collapse. The circulation of ocean water beneath ice shelves and radiative warming from above, they say, gradually deteriorate ice melange over the course of decades.

As ice shelves are thought to buttress and prevent land-borne glaciers from more rapidly flowing into the ocean, this new knowledge about rift dynamics illuminates a previously underappreciated link between climate change and ice shelf stability.

“The thinning of the ice melange that glues together large segments of floating ice shelves is another way climate change can cause rapid retreat of Antarctica’s ice shelves,” said co-author Eric Rignot, UCI professor of Earth system science. “With this in mind, we may need to rethink our estimates about the timing and extent of sea level rise from polar ice loss – i.e., it could come sooner and with a bigger bang than expected.”

Using NASA’s Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model, observations from the agency’s Operation IceBridge mission, and data from NASA and European satellites, the researchers assessed hundreds of rifts in the Larsen C ice shelf to determine which ones were most vulnerable to breaking. They selected 11 top-to-bottom cracks for in-depth study, modeling to see which of three scenarios rendered them most likely to break: if the ice shelf thinned because of melting, if the ice melange grew thinner, or if both the ice shelf and the melange thinned.

“A lot of people thought intuitively, ‘If you thin the ice shelf, you’re going to make it much more fragile, and it’s going to break,’” said lead author Eric Larour, NASA JPL research scientist and group supervisor.

Instead, the model showed that a thinning ice shelf without any changes to the melange worked to heal the rifts, with average annual widening rates dropping from 79 to 22 meters (259 to 72 feet). Thinning both the ice shelf and the melange also slowed rift widening but to a lesser extent. But when modeling only melange thinning, the scientists found a widening of rifts from an average annual rate of 76 to 112 meters (249 to 367 feet).

The difference, Larour explained, reflects the different natures of the substances.

“The melange is thinner than ice to begin with,” he said. “When the melange is only 10 or 15 meters thick, it’s akin to water, and the ice shelf rifts are released and start to crack.”

Even in winter, warmer ocean water can reach the melange from below because rifts extend through the entire depth of an ice shelf.

“The prevailing theory behind the increase in large iceberg calving events in the Antarctic Peninsula has been hydrofracturing, in which melt pools on the surface allow water to seep down through cracks in the ice shelf, which expand when the water freezes again,” said Rignot, who is also a NASA JPL senior research scientist. “But that theory fails to explain how iceberg A68 could break from the Larsen C ice shelf in the dead of the Antarctic winter when no melt pools were present.”

He said that he and others in the cryosphere studies community have witnessed ice shelf collapse on the Antarctic Peninsula, stemming from a retreat that began decades ago.

“We have finally begun to seek an explanation as to why these ice shelves started retreating and coming into these configurations that became unstable decades before hydrofracturing could act on them,” Rignot said. “While the thinning ice melange is not the only process that could explain it, it’s sufficient to account for the deterioration that we’ve observed.”

Reference: “Physical processes controlling the rifting of Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica, prior to the calving of iceberg A68” by E. Larour, E. Rignot, M. Poinelli and B. Scheuchl, 27 September 2021, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2105080118

Joining Rignot and Larour on this NASA-funded project were Bernd Scheuchl, UCI associate project scientist in Earth system science, and Mattia Poinelli, a Ph.D. candidate in geoscience and remote sensing at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.

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