What's the best way to boost the economy? Invest in high-voltage transmission lines

by Peter Martin, The Conversation

DECEMBER 29, 2020

Credit: Bohbeh/Shutterstock

When, in the midst of the pandemic, the Economic Society of Australia invited 150 of Australia's keenest young thinkers to come up with "brief, specific and actionable" proposals to improve the economy, amid scores of ideas about improving job matching, changing the tax system, providing non-repayable loans to businesses and accelerating telehealth, two proposals stood out.


They were actually the same proposal, arrived at independently by two groups of "hackers" in the society's annual (this time virtual) "hackathon".

I was one of the judges.

The mentors who helped test and guide the proposals were some of the leading names in economics, among them Jeff Borland, John Quiggin, Gigi Foster, Deborah Cobb-Clark, Peter Abelson and John Hewson.

The proposal is to fast track the 15 or more projects already identified by the Australian Energy Market Operator as essential to meet the electricity grid's transmission needs over the next 20 years.

Starting them immediately, when business investment is weak and there's a need for jobs and governments can borrow at rates close to zero, will bring forward all of the benefits of being able to bring ultra-cheap power from the places it will be made to the places it will be needed as expensive fossil-fuel generators bow out or are out competed.

Judges Alison Booth, Jeremy Thorpe and I noted that policy hacks were the most useful where neither the market nor the government was getting the job done.

The proposal would help ensure renewables can connect to the grid, something "neither the market nor the government is managing to do quickly".

AEMO Integrated System Plan

A few weeks later Labor leader Anthony Albanese used his budget reply speech to propose the same thing—a Rewiring the Nation Corporation to turn the projects identified in the Energy Market Operator's integrated system plan into reality.


Here is what is proposed in the winners' own words:

Accelerating priority transmission projects

Nick Vernon, Agrata Verma, Bella Hancock

Investment in new renewable generators in Australia sank 40% in 2019. A major factor holding them back is grid access. The best locations for wind and sun often have poor access to the cables that transport electricity to consumers.

Our near-term recommendation is to guarantee Project EnergyConnect, a 900-kilometre cable between NSW and South Australia due to begin construction next year. The network operators got approval in January, but there is now uncertainty over whether they will get the funding.

We propose that the two state governments agree to cover the shortfall between approved revenues and realised costs (up to a pre-determined limit) to ensure construction starts on time in 2021.

Medium-term, we recommend the Australian Energy Regulator conduct the regulatory investment test and revenue adjustment processes for all priority projects in parallel to condense approval timelines and that the Commonwealth and state governments underwrite priority projects' early works.

This would allow service providers to commission new transmission lines sooner after regulatory approval.

The case for fast tracking transmission

Patrick Sweeney, Sam Edge, Elke Taylor, Jacob Keillor, Timothy Fong

Currently valued at A$20 billion, the Australian transmission network was designed for a centralised 20th century power mix and suffers from aging infrastructure.

The $6 billion upgrade we propose would have as its centrepiece 15 projects the Energy Market Operator has already identified as essential.

Fast-tracking these projects has the potential to generate 100,000 jobs, to bring about strong private investment in low-carbon power production, and to place downward pressure on wholesale power prices, producing $11 billion in benefits.

A national taskforce consisting of the department of energy and the market operator would oversee a project of a similar size to the Snowy Mountains scheme, which itself created more than 100,000 jobs during its lifecycle.

The government would procure the funds by issuing bonds, with recent rates indicating the yield payable will be less than the rate of inflation.

Firms that tendered for the work would be evaluated on their capacity to upscale production to meet milestones and on their plans to generate long-term, sustainable employment.


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Up to 90% of electricity from solar and wind the cheapest option by 2030

Provided by The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

HIN5; IN THE 'HOOD
COVID cluckers: Pandemic feeds demand for backyard chickens

by Terence Chea
DECEMBER 30, 2020

Ron and Allison Abta hold hens in front of their backyard chicken run in Ross, Calif., Dec. 15, 2020. The coronavirus pandemic is coming home to roost in America's backyards. Forced to hunker down at home, more people are setting up coops and raising their own chickens, which provide an earthy hobby, animal companionship and a steady supply of fresh eggs. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

The coronavirus pandemic is coming home to roost in America's backyards.


Forced to hunker down at home, more people are setting up coops and raising their own chickens, which provide an earthy hobby, animal companionship and a steady supply of fresh eggs.

Amateur chicken-keeping has been growing in popularity in recent years as people seek environmental sustainability in the food they eat. The pandemic is accelerating those trends, some breeders and poultry groups say, prompting more people to make the leap into poultry parenthood.

Businesses that sell chicks, coops and other supplies say they have seen a surge in demand since the pandemic took hold in March and health officials ordered residents to stay home.

Allison and Ron Abta of Northern California's Marin County had for years talked about setting up a backyard coop. They took the plunge in August.

The couple's three kids were thrilled when their parents finally agreed to buy chicks.

"These chickens are like my favorite thing, honestly," said 12-year-old Violet, holding a dark feathered hen in her woodsy backyard. "They actually have personalities once you get to know them."

Members of the Abta family, from left, Allison, Violet, Eli, and Ariella hold hens in front of their backyard chicken run in Ross, Calif., on Dec. 15, 2020. The coronavirus pandemic is coming home to roost in America's backyards. Forced to hunker down at home, more people are setting up coops and raising their own chickens, which provide an earthy hobby, animal companionship and a steady supply of fresh eggs. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

The baby birds lived inside the family's home for six weeks before moving into the chicken run in the yard. A wire-mesh enclosure now houses the five heritage hens—each a different breed—and protects them from bobcats, foxes and other predators.

Mark Podgwaite, a Vermont chicken breeder who heads the American Poultry Association, said he and other breeders have noticed an uptick in demand for chicks since the pandemic began. His organization, which represents breeders and poultry-show exhibitors, has seen a jump in new members.

"Without question, the resurgence in raising backyard poultry has been unbelievable over the past year," said Podgwaite, who keeps a flock of roughly 100 birds. "It just exploded. Whether folks wanted birds just for eggs or eggs and meat, it seemed to really, really take off."

The Abta family bought the chicks from Mill Valley Chickens, which sells chickens, feed and supplies and builds coops and runs. Owner Leslie Citroen also offers classes for first-time chicken keepers. She estimates her sales have grown 400% this year.

Ben Duddleston discusses buying chickens and supplies from Leslie Citroen, owner of Mill Valley Chickens in Mill Valley, Calif., Dec. 15, 2020. The coronavirus pandemic is coming home to roost in America's backyards. Citroen says demand for heritage hens has increased sharply since the pandemic began and Duddleston says the pandemic influenced his decision to become a "first-time chicken dad." (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

A heritage hen sits on a wire enclosure at Mill Valley Chickens in Mill Valley, Calif., Dec. 15, 2020. The coronavirus pandemic is coming home to roost in America's backyards. Owner Leslie Citroen says demand for backyard chickens has increased sharply since the pandemic began. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

"Once COVID hit, my phone just started ringing off the hook and it just has not slowed down," Citroen said. "I don't think it's going to slow down. I think this new interest and passion in chickens is permanent."


Citroen said most of her customers this year are first-time chicken keepers. They range from parents looking for something to keep homebound children busy to "preppers" who want their own protein supply in case the world falls apart.

"Demand is just through the roof right now," Citroen said. "I've sold all my baby chicks. I've sold all my juveniles. And I'm starting to sell some of my family flock."

One of her newest customers is Ben Duddleston, who lives in nearby San Anselmo. He stopped by her home to buy three hens.

The self-described "first-time chicken dad" wanted to surprise his kids, ages 5 and 10, on Christmas.

"I think it's totally pandemic related. I don't think that I'd be doing this if in normal times," Duddleston said.


Explore further   National warning on backyard chooks after salmonella outbreaks

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Restoring longleaf pines, keystone of once vast ecosystems

by Janet McConnaughey

DECEMBER 30, 2020

This photo provided by The Nature Conservancy shows a prescribed fire sweeping through longleaf pines in 2019 at The Nature Conservancy's Calloway Preserve near Fort Bragg, N.C. An intensive effort in nine coastal states from Virginia to Texas is bringing back longleaf pines—armor-plated trees that bear footlong needles and need regular fires to spark their seedlings' growth and to support wildly diverse grasslands that include carnivorous plants and harbor burrowing tortoises. (Margaret Fields/The Nature Conservancy via AP)

When European settlers came to North America, fire-dependent savannas anchored by lofty pines with footlong needles covered much of what became the southern United States.


Yet by the 1990s, logging and clear-cutting for farms and development had all but eliminated longleaf pines and the grasslands beneath where hundreds of plant and animal species flourished.

Now, thanks to a pair of modern day Johnny Appleseeds, landowners, government agencies and nonprofits are working in nine coastal states from Virginia to Texas to bring back pines named for the long needles prized by Native Americans for weaving baskets.

Longleaf pines now cover as much as 7,300 square miles (19,000 square kilometers)—and more than one-quarter of that has been planted since 2010.

"I like to say we rescued longleaf from the dustbin. I don't think we had any idea how successful we'd be," said Rhett Johnson, who founded gopher tortoise whose burrows shelter scores of animal species including mice, foxes, rabbits, snakes, even birds, and hundreds of kinds of insects.

Plants and animals have lost ground along with the longleaf. Nearly 30 are endangered or threatened. Dozens more are being studied to decide whether they should be protected.

A fire-charred longleaf pine stands in the DeSoto National Forest in Miss. on Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020. An intensive effort in nine coastal states from Virginia to Texas is working to bring back the pines named for the long needles prized by Native Americans for weaving baskets. (AP Photo/Janet McConnaughey)

Johnson, who retired in 2006 as director of Auburn's Solon Dixon Forestry Education Center in south Alabama, said working surrounded by longleaf made him realize that stands were losing quality and shrinking in range. "Just as alarming, people who understood longleaf were disappearing as well," he said.

Johnson and alliance cofounder Dean Gjerstad spread the word about the tree's importance. "We were like Johnny Appleseed—we were on the road all the time," said Johnson, who retired from the alliance in 2012.

By 2005, the alliance, government agencies, nonprofits, universities and private partners were working together. In 2010, they launched America's Longleaf Restoration Initiative, with a goal of having 12,500 square miles (32,370 square kilometers) of longleaf by 2025.

The initiative built on efforts by federal and state agencies including the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Resources Conservation Service to provide incentives for owners to return land to longleaf pines, Johnson said.

Longleaf pines, about 80 to 85 years old, stand tall in the DeSoto National Forest in Miss., on Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020. An intensive effort in nine coastal states from Virginia to Texas is working to bring back the pines named for the long needles prized by Native Americans for weaving baskets. (AP Photo/Janet McConnaughey)

Most of the land planted in the last 10 years had been "highly erodible cropland," he said. "Better a longleaf plantation than a cotton field."

The initiative is trying to ensure that at least half the restored land is close enough to existing forests that plants and animals could, over generations, turn the new stands into functioning ecosystems.

When the ecosystem returns, landowners can look forward to annual income from activities such as hunting and wildlife photography rather than only from intermittent timber harvests, said Kevin Norton, acting chief of the National Resources Conservation Service.

Because most longleaf acreage is privately owned, 80% to 85% of the planting so far has been on private land, said Carol Denhof, president of The Longleaf Alliance.

Another 5,160 square miles (13,360 square kilometers) must be planted or reclaimed from stands overly mixed with other tree species to meet the initiative's 2025 deadline, she said. "I'm hopeful we can get there but ... we have a lot of work to do."

Silviculturist Keith Coursey walks between a 2-year-old longleaf pine "grass stage" seedling and a stand of 80- to 85-foot-tall longleaf pines in the DeSoto National Forest on Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020. An intensive effort in nine coastal states from Virginia to Texas is bringing back longleaf pines—armor-plated trees that bear footlong needles and need regular fires to spark their seedlings' growth and to support wildly diverse grasslands that include carnivorous plants and harbor burrowing tortoises. (AP Photo/Janet McConnaughey)

Footlong needles that give longleaf pine its name are seen in the DeSoto National Forest on Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020. An intensive effort in nine coastal states is bringing back longleaf pines—armor-plated trees that bear footlong needles and need regular fires to spark their seedlings' growth and to support wildly diverse grasslands that include carnivorous plants and harbor burrowing tortoises. (AP Photo/Janet McConnaughey)

This photo taken July 8, 2010, shows a baby Louisiana pine snake poking its head through the shell of its egg while hatching, which can take up to 24 hours, at The Memphis Zoo. Pine snakes are among nearly 30 plant and animal species that have become threatened or endangered as longleaf pines lost ground. (Jim Weber/The Commercial Appeal via AP, File)

A 2-year-old "grass stage" longleaf pine seedling stands in the DeSoto National Forest on Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020, with U.S. Forest Service silviculturist Keith Coursey and some 80- to 85-year-old trees in the background. Longleaf forests once covered an estimated 92 million acres, a figure which had fallen to 3.4 million by 2010. Since then, people in nine coastal states from Texas to Virginia have added 1.3 million acres—some by planting seedlings, others by taking out shrubs and other trees in mixed forests. (AP Photo/Janet McConnaughey)

This photo from Florida's State Archives, taken near Mount Pleasant, Florida, on Aug. 7, 1936, shows two men in front of a stand of virgin longleaf pine before it was logged. When European settlers came to North America, fire-dependent savannas anchored by lofty pines with footlong needles covered much of what became the southern United States. Yet by the 1990s, logging, clear-cutting for farms and development and fire suppression had all but eliminated longleaf pines and the grasslands beneath where hundreds of plant and animal species flourished. Now an intensive effort in nine coastal states from Virginia to Texas is bringing back the pines named for the long needles prized by Native Americans for weaving baskets. (Florida Forest Service/Florida's State Archives via AP)

This photo, from Florida's State Archives, shows loggers felling a longleaf pine at De Leon Springs in April 1915. When European settlers came to North America, fire-dependent savannas anchored by lofty pines with footlong needles covered much of what became the southern United States. Yet by the 1990s, logging, clear-cutting for farms and development and fire suppression had all but eliminated longleaf pines and the grasslands beneath where hundreds of plant and animal species flourished. Now an intensive effort in nine coastal states from Virginia to Texas is bringing back the pines named for the long needles prized by Native Americans for weaving baskets. (Florida's State Archives via AP)

In this photograph, from the State Archives of Florida, loggers use a team of oxen to haul away longleaf pine logs near Mount Pleasant, Fla., on Aug. 7, 1936. When European settlers came to North America, fire-dependent savannas anchored by lofty pines with footlong needles covered much of what became the southern United States. Yet by the 1990s, logging, clear-cutting for farms and development and fire suppression had all but eliminated longleaf pines and the grasslands beneath where hundreds of plant and animal species flourished. Now an intensive effort in nine coastal states from Virginia to Texas is bringing back the pines named for the long needles prized by Native Americans for weaving baskets. (Florida Forest Service/State Archives of Florida via AP)

Charred bark on a 20-year-old, 8-inch diameter longleaf pine in the DeSoto National Forest in Miss., on Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020, shows where a fire swept by, protecting grasses and wildflowers that otherwise would be robbed of sunlight by shrubs and shorter trees. An intensive effort in nine coastal states from Virginia to Texas is bringing back longleaf pines—armor-plated trees that bear footlong needles and need regular fires to spark their seedlings' growth and to support wildly diverse grasslands that include carnivorous plants and harbor burrowing tortoises. (AP Photo/Janet McConnaughey)
A stand of 80- to 85-year-old longleaf pines and an open, grassy area where seedlings can grow unhampered—including a few at the top of the shadow are seen in the DeSoto National Forest in Miss. Landowners and government agencies in nine states from Texas to Virginia are working to bring back longleaf pines, planting seedlings in some areas and managing others to remove shrubs and other kinds of trees. (AP Photo/Janet McConnaughey)

Tiny carnivorous plants called sundews, like the fingertip-sized one shown here in the DeSoto National Forest, in Miss., on Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020, are part of the wildly diverse longleaf pine ecosystem. An intensive effort in nine coastal states from from Virginia to Texas is bringing back longleaf pines—armor-plated trees that bear footlong needles and need regular fires to spark their seedlings' growth and to support wildly diverse grasslands that include carnivorous plants and harbor burrowing tortoises. (AP Photo/Janet McConnaughey)

Longleaf pine needles and a chunk of bark frame tiny carnivorous plants called sundews in the DeSoto National Forest in Miss., on Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020. An intensive effort in nine coastal states from Virginia to Texas is bringing back longleaf pines—armor-plated trees that bear footlong needles and need regular fires to spark their seedlings' growth and to support wildly diverse grasslands that include carnivorous plants and harbor burrowing tortoises. (AP Photo/Janet McConnaughey)

Silviciulturist Keith Coursey stands in a thicket of gallberries—one of the shrubs that would block the sun from grasses and wildflowers in longleaf pine forests without regular fires—in front of a stand of 80- to 85-foot-tall longleaf pines in the DeSoto National Forest on Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020. An intensive effort in nine coastal states from Virginia to Texas is bringing back longleaf pines—armor-plated trees that bear footlong needles and need regular fires to spark their seedlings' growth and to support wildly diverse grasslands that include carnivorous plants and harbor burrowing tortoises. (AP Photo/Janet 

About 400 acres (160 hectares) of land returned to longleaf were planted by the Alabama-Coushatta Tribe of Texas, for their needles.

About 400 acres (160 hectares) of land returned to longleaf were planted by the Alabama-Coushatta Tribe of Texas, for their needles. But branches from most of the first planting are now too high to reach. So Gesse Bullock, the tribe's fire management specialist, said he is pushing for another planting on the 10,200-acre (4,100-hectare) reservation.

Basket weavers include the tribe's realty officer, Elliott Abbey. "When I was younger," he said, "I thought it was work—something my aunts made me do,"

Now, Abbey said, "It strikes me in the heart that this could die out."

Explore further

Landscape-level habitat connectivity is key for species that depend on longleaf pine

© 2020 The Associated Press.

Young sea lion recovers from shark bite, returns to ocean

RASPUTIN OF THE SEA

A feisty young sea lion is back in the Northern California wild after five weeks of rehabilitation to treat a severe shark bite, domoic acid poisoning and malnutrition.

The Marine Mammal Center in Sausalito said Monday that it had successfully released Jenya last week at Rodeo Beach in the Marin Headlands.

The male sea lion was rescued from San Francisco's Aquatic Park by Fisherman's Wharf in November after the center received reports of a lethargic sea lion with a large left shoulder wound.

Jenya gained back 25 pounds and was released once he had regained full motion and weight distribution on his left front flipper, the center said.

"Jenya's road to recovery was one of the most inspiring patient cases I've seen this year," said Emily Trumbull, veterinarian at The Marine Mammal Center.

The center is the largest marine mammal hospital in the world and has cared for more than 440 seals and sea lions this year.

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Surge in sick, hungry sea lions off California coast puzzles marine biologists

© 2020 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. 

DECEMBER 30, 2020

Editorial: SoCal is losing its fight against smog.
have to turn around in 2021

by The Times Editorial Board, Los Angeles Times, 

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain

For a brief moment this year, Southern Californians got a glimpse of what clean air could look and feel like. During the first COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns in the spring, the dramatic drop in vehicle pollution combined with stormy weather to help clear out the region's notoriously smoggy, hazy air, leaving blue skies and crisp vistas.

It didn't last long. In fact, 2020 ended up being one of Southern California's smoggiest years in decades, The LA Times' Tony Barboza recently reported. There were 157 days when the region exceeded the federal health standard for ozone pollution, the main ingredient in smog. That's the most since 1997. The region has also had more than 30 days of excessive fine-particle pollution, or soot.

The overages weren't a fluke. Southern California's air quality has been on the decline for several years now, with the worst effects felt in San Bernardino, Riverside and other inland communities. Despite decades of emissions control regulations and programs, the region is losing the fight for clean air. Far too many residents still live with unhealthy levels of pollution that can permanently damage children's lungs and raise adults' risk of heart attacks and strokes.

The region will not meet a Clean Air Act deadline to reduce ozone levels by the end of 2022, which could lead to the loss of federal transportation funding and other penalties. Even more troubling, the trend line suggests Southern California will struggle to cut smog-forming emissions enough to meet a more stringent 2031 standard. The increase in unhealthful air appears to be linked to hotter weather—heat and sunlight transform certain pollutants into ozone—and smoke from wildfires. Climate change is driving both factors, and they're only going to become more pronounced in the coming years.

Southern California has to turn the tide on air pollution. It won't be easy, but 2021 will be a crucial year to adopt new regulations and policies that set the region on the course for clean air. The coming year will also test the South Coast Air Quality Management District, the region's air quality regulator. The district's governing board, which is made up of local elected officials, has too often bent to industry demands and delayed necessary regulations to cut emissions. Now those policies are coming up for a vote.

One of the most important regulations will target oil refineries. The proposed rule would get rid of an ineffective cap-and-trade-like system for curtailing refinery pollution and instead require these facilities to install the best available pollution control equipment. This proposal has been on the table for more than five years, but the oil industry has fought successfully to delay it—and it's likely to lobby to weaken the current proposal. But the AQMD board has to realize there is no more time to waste. The rule, which would affect about 10 refineries, would cut more smog-forming emissions than any other regulation being considered by the district.


The AQMD board will also consider a first-of-its-kind regulation to cut pollution associated with warehouses. The goods movement industry is a huge source of emissions in the region, from diesel-belching cargo ships at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to the trucks and trains that haul containers to warehouses in the Inland Empire and beyond. The district has direct authority to regulate stationary sources of pollution, such as power plants, factories and refineries. But more than 80% of the region's smog-forming pollution is created by vehicles, particularly diesel trucks, which are regulated by the state and federal governments.

Although the AQMD may not be able to regulate trucks directly, it can—and should—regulate facilities that are magnets for them. The proposed rule would require warehouses to reduce the emissions associated with their facilities by, for example, installing electric vehicle charging stations, buying low-emission or zero-emission equipment and encouraging their freight customers to use clean trucks. Again, the proposal is likely to face strong pushback from the logistics industry. But the AQMD board shouldn't be swayed. E-commerce has boomed during the pandemic. This is an industry that can afford to pay more to help clean the air it is tainting in the smoggiest region of the country.

Likewise, the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach delayed implementation of a fee on cargo that was supposed to help pay for cleaner trucks, citing the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. The ports now have record traffic; there's no reason to wait on the fee or the transition to cleaner transport.

Southern California cannot solve its smog problem alone. The California Air Resources Board and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are crucial partners because they regulate the region's biggest polluters. The EPA under the Trump administration largely abandoned its clean-air responsibilities; we hope the incoming Biden administration will recognize how much Southern California needs an ally in the effort to shift to a zero-emissions future.

We've seen how beautiful that future can be. Regulators need to step up to help make it a reality.


Explore furtherL

os Angeles began 2020 with a clean-air streak but ended with its worst smog in decades

Provided by Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Is forearm curvature in the 'Little Foot' Australopithecus natural or pathological?

by Chaffey College

DECEMBER 29, 2020

The upper skeleton of StW 573 highlighting the right ulna (A) and left ulna (B). Credit: Marc R. MeyerThe 3.67-million-year-old StW 573 ("Little Foot") Australopithecus from Sterkfontein, South Africa, is the most complete skeleton known in the hominin fossil record. Its discoverers suggested that the significant curvature of its forearm is the result of a fall from a tree during childhood. They argued this early Australopithecus suffered acute plastic bowing of the forearm—a deformity common in young children after suffering a traumatic fall onto an outstretched hand, as juvenile bones are more elastic than those of adults. 

Researchers from UC Riverside, Chaffey College, and New York University tested this hypothesis using elliptical Fourier shape analysis in a broad sample of apes, hominins, modern humans. In addition, the researchers included clinical cases of humans exhibiting this pathology in their comparisons.

The new research published in the Journal of Human Evolution shows that the extreme curvature of the Little Foot forearm is most like orangutans, and reflects a natural degree of curvature observed in other apes and several other early hominins. Such curvature is a normal anatomic feature among extant apes and many early hominins and is thought to be a reaction to behaviors where the forelimb is habitually used in locomotion.

Similar results were found in other early fossils, including in the oldest hominin, Sahelanthropus tchadensis (dated in excess of six-million-years), whose forearm curvature was most similar to gorillas. Thus, it appears that the forelimb of both Sahelanthropus and Little Foot had not been fully emancipated from a role in locomotion.

Biplot of the first two principal components (PCs) from elliptical Fourier descriptors of ulnar shaft contours. The following fossil specimens are included: TM 266 (Sahelanthropus tchadensis); A.L. 288-1 and A.L. 438-1 (Australopithecus afarensis); OH 36 and L40-19 (Paranthropus boisei); U.W. 88-62 (Australopitheus sediba); U.W. 101-499 (Homo naledi); KNM-WT 15000 and KNM-BK 66 (Homo erectus). Credit: Marc R. Meyer

Isolation of the curvature in the "Little Foot' ulna shaft. Credit: Marc R. Meyer

Explore further

Study of partial left femur suggests Sahelanthropus tchadensis was not a hominin after all

More information: Araiza, I., Meyer, M.R., Williams, S.A., 2021. Is ulna curvature in the StW 573 ('Little Foot') Australopithecus natural or pathological? Journal of Human Evolution 151, doi.org/10.1016/j.jhevol.2020.102927

Journal information: Journal of Human Evolution


Provided by Chaffey College

THE GAME IS AFOOT
Ripples in space-time could provide clues to missing components of the universe

by Louise Lerner, University of Chicago

DECEMBER 28, 2020

illustration of waves blending and creating a distinct new signature. 

Credit: Ezquiaga and Zumalácarregui

There's something a little off about our theory of the universe. Almost everything fits, but there's a fly in the cosmic ointment, a particle of sand in the infinite sandwich. Some scientists think the culprit might be gravity—and that subtle ripples in the fabric of space-time could help us find the missing piece.

A new paper co-authored by a University of Chicago scientist lays out how this might work. Published Dec. 21 in Physical Review D, the method depends on finding such ripples that have been bent by traveling through supermassive black holes or large galaxies on their way to Earth.

The trouble is that something is making the universe not only expand, but expand faster and faster over time—and no one knows what it is. (The search for the exact rate is an ongoing debate in cosmology).

Scientists have proposed all kinds of theories for what the missing piece might be. "Many of these rely on changing the way gravity works over large scales," said paper co-author Jose María Ezquiaga, a NASA Einstein postdoctoral fellow in the Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics at the UChicago. "So gravitational waves are the perfect messenger to see these possible modifications of gravity, if they exist."

Gravitational waves are ripples in the fabric of space-time itself; since 2015, humanity has been able to pick up these ripples using the LIGO observatories. Whenever two massively heavy objects collide elsewhere in the universe, they create a ripple that travels across space, carrying the signature of whatever made it—perhaps two black holes or two neutron stars colliding.

In the paper, Ezquiaga and co-author Miguel Zumalácarregui argue that if such waves hit a supermassive black hole or cluster of galaxies on their way to Earth, the signature of the ripple would change. If there were a difference in gravity compared to Einstein's theory, the evidence would be embedded in that signature.

For example, one theory for the missing piece of the universe is the existence of an extra particle. Such a particle would, among other effects, generate a kind of background or "medium" around large objects. If a traveling gravitational wave hit a supermassive black hole, it would generate waves that would get mixed up with the gravitational wave itself. Depending on what it encountered, the gravitational wave signature could carry an "echo," or show up scrambled.

"This is a new way to probe scenarios that couldn't be tested before," Ezquiaga said.

Their paper lays out the conditions for how to find such effects in future data. The next LIGO run is scheduled to begin in 2022, with an upgrade to make the detectors even more sensitive than they already are.

"In our last observing run with LIGO, we were seeing a new gravitational wave reading every six days, which is amazing. But in the entire universe, we think they're actually happening once every five minutes," Ezquiaga said. "In the next upgrade, we could see so many of those—hundreds of events per year."

The increased numbers, he said, make it more likely that one or more wave will have traveled through a massive object, and that scientists will be able to analyze them for clues to the missing components.

Zumalácarregui, the other author on the paper, is a scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics in Germany as well as the Berkeley Center for Cosmological Physics at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of California, Berkeley.

Explore further  Researchers reveal the origins of merging black holes

More information: Jose María Ezquiaga et al. Gravitational wave lensing beyond general relativity: Birefringence, echoes, and shadows, Physical Review D (2020). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevD.102.124048

Journal information: Physical Review D 

Provided by University of Chicago

Sociologist details how, why privilege plays role in criminal courts

by Sandra Feder, Stanford University

DECEMBER 29, 2020

Credit: Stanford University

A chance encounter five years ago in a Chicago-area courtroom altered the course of sociologist Matthew Clair's academic life. While a graduate student researching the criminal justice system, Clair and a colleague often observed courtroom proceedings in cities they were visiting.

While sitting in the gallery of a courtroom one day, Clair was startled to hear the prosecutor say, "Is Clair coming from lockup?" Clair wondered if his last name was more common than he had assumed. His father's family hailed from Chicago, and Clair had had some contact with them over the years, but he was still shocked when a man who could have been his doppelgänger walked into the courtroom.

"I later found out he was a first cousin," said Clair, assistant professor of sociology in the School of Humanities and Sciences. "Seeing him, and seeing the possibility of me in him, made me realize again the privilege I've had growing up middle class."

That encounter is one of many with criminal defendants that Clair references in his recently released book, "Privilege and Punishment: How Race and Class Matter in Criminal Court" (Princeton University Press, 2020). That unexpected brush with his cousin in the courtroom prompted Clair to pivot his research to examine the experience of defendants in the criminal justice system, specifically the attorney-client relationship, and the different ways that relationship manifests among privileged and disadvantaged defendants.

Privilege and agency

Clair defines non-privileged or disadvantaged people as those who live in neighborhoods with high levels of punitive police surveillance, who have routine and often racist or class-biased experiences with the legal system, limited social ties with people in power and limited access to financial resources. These are typically working-class people of color and the poor. By contrast, privileged people are those who have access to empowered social ties and financial resources and who rarely have negative encounters with police or other legal officials.

While much has been written about mass incarceration in the U.S., few scholars have explored the qualitative differences in the experiences of defendants, based on race and class, in the criminal justice system. What Clair found is that the power asymmetry in the attorney-client relationship plays out in a surprising and seemingly contradictory way for privileged versus disadvantaged defendants.

In mainstream institutions, like schools and doctor's offices, if people have agency, learn the rules, and assert their rights, they are often rewarded with positive outcomes, prior research has shown. For instance, assertive students are more likely to get an exemption on a homework assignment and assertive patients often have more access to medical care. "Within the cultural sociology literature is the assumption that if only working class and poor people could learn those rules, they'd be treated better," Clair said.

What Clair discovered is that in the criminal courts it's exactly the opposite. "When non-privileged people learn the formal rules and their legal rights in the court system, they are punished," he said. "These institutions have different unwritten norms and logics. Courts are about control and getting people to give in."

Clair found that in a court setting, compliance often comes more easily to privileged rather than poor defendants. His research shows that privileged defendants, who are better able to hire an attorney, are also generally more trusting of their hired attorney and, therefore, more likely to cooperate and follow the attorney's advice. Privileged defendants also tend to have had fewer negative experiences with the justice system, so they are less likely to feel the system is stacked against them. Clair also found that for privileged defendants, prior experiences with police are more often positive, including having social relationships with police or having been given a second chance by a police officer.

In contrast, disadvantaged defendants often had prior negative experiences with the police–including prior arrests, surveillance, and racism—and with the criminal justice system. According to Clair, these defendants often view their court-appointed defense attorneys with skepticism, seeing them as overworked, with heavy caseloads, and less inclined to fight hard for them. This often leads poor and working-class defendants of color to withdraw from cooperating with the attorney and instead try to advocate for themselves. They might ask for a new attorney or speak directly to the judge about their circumstances.

"For the disadvantaged, a relationship with a lawyer often results in coercion, silencing, and punishment. For the privileged, a relationship with a lawyer often results in leniency, ease of navigation, and even some rewards," Clair writes in the book. "Therefore, race and class disparities in legal outcomes likely emerge, in part, from the taken-for-granted and hidden rules of the courts, which discriminate between defendants based on how they interact with their lawyers and present themselves in front of judges."

Defendants seek respect

Clair draws on courtroom observations and interviews with 63 criminal defendants, representing a range of race and class backgrounds, as well as interviews with court officials, including lawyers and judges, in the Boston area.

"Defense attorneys are focused on mitigating outcomes, and privileged defendants agree with that goal," Clair said. "One reason is that these defendants generally have respect in their lives, but disadvantaged defendants go back to a neighborhood that's highly policed and where the police have been allowed to abuse them with impunity."

For these defendants, achieving respect in terms of how they are treated while in the criminal justice system can be as important as the outcome of the case. So having their grievances against police misconduct heard or having their lawyer file motions on their behalf is an important part of whether they feel like justice has been achieved.

One experience shared by all the defendants that Clair surveyed was a profound sense of alienation during adolescence. "For disadvantaged people, their alienation put them into contact with the criminal justice system earlier on and the ability to have family or a broader social structure that was able to help them from going off the deep end was less available," he said.

Clair concludes with recommendations for change within and outside of the existing system. These include allowing defendants to pick their own attorneys, encouraging judges to speak up more often to slow the process down and help defendants to feel heard, and teaching attorneys how to build better trust with clients.

He also advocates investing in social welfare programs to support disadvantaged communities and making better use of restorative justice programs, which emphasize the impact and consequences of a crime as well as finding ways for the responsible party to make reparations for the injury that was caused. As Clair concludes, "These alternatives to the existing criminal courts may be imperfect, but they encourage us to imagine how we might deal with social harms in the absence of police, prosecutors, defense attorneys, judges, and prison guards."


Explore further

'My genes made me do it:' Behavioral genetic evidence in criminal court

Provided by Stanford University 

How to help dogs and cats manage separation anxiety when their humans return to work

by Lori M Teller, The Conversation

Pets can develop separation anxiety when their people are suddenly gone. Credit: Jairo Alzate/Unsplash, CC BY

When one of my co-workers found out about a tiny, orphaned kitten that needed a home a few months ago, he didn't hesitate to adopt it. He says his new companion helped make the months of COVID-19 isolation at home much less stressful.

He is not alone. Animal shelters and breeders across the country have reported record numbers of dog and cat adoptions in recent months.

But after my co-worker returned to work, he says his adorable kitten started urinating on the kitchen counter while he was away.

Another friend is worried about how her dog will react when she returns to the office. Her big, goofy Labrador retriever follows her everywhere, even to the bathroom. When she leaves to run a quick errand, the dog sits by the back door and whines, awaiting her return.

What should these pet owners do?

The problem with sudden changes in routine

A change in routine, such as suddenly being alone for many hours every day, is a major cause of separation anxiety for both dogs and cats.

Separation anxiety is more than a little whimpering when you head out the door. It's major, unwanted behavior that happens every time you leave or are away.

For dogs and cats, this can mean excessive pacing, barking or howling, whimpering or self-grooming as you get ready to leave. In some cases it can mean urinating or defecating around the house, often in places where scents linger, such as on bedding or rugs, or destroying household items in your absence. Extreme clinginess or neediness is another symptom.

Separation anxiety won't go away on its own, and it can be difficult to get rid of entirely. But there are ways to manage it. As a clinical veterinarian and professor, I am often asked to help people find ways to ease their pets' anxiety.


What not to do

First, it's important to understand that it's not about you – it's about your pet. Your dog or cat is not trying to teach you a lesson or get revenge. Animals don't act out of spite.

Instead, it's a signal of extreme distress and frustration that should be approached like any other medical ailment. Your pet doesn't want to experience separation anxiety any more than you want to experience its consequences.

For this reason, punishment is never the answer. For one thing, your pet won't connect the punishment with something that happened hours—or even a few minutes—earlier. And punishment may only exacerbate your pet's anxiety and stress.

Similarly, going to the opposite extreme by praising or giving affection when your pet is suffering anxiety also will make the problem worse.

The goal is to create a balanced relationship so your pet tolerates being alone. First, get your pet checked out by a veterinarian to rule out physical conditions, such as a urinary tract infection if your pet urinates in inappropriate places.

Next, make sure your pet gets plenty of exercise and mental stimulation. For dogs, this may mean a long run or brisk walk every day. Getting exercise shortly before you leave the house may put your dog in a more relaxed state while you're gone. It's harder to feel stressed when the endorphin levels are elevated. For cats, this could mean a change of environment by being outdoors in a safe, enclosed area such as a "catio."

Treating separation anxiety with behavior change

Here, we're talking about your behavior. The goal is to make your absence seem like no big deal. Making a fuss over your pet when you leave or arrive home only makes matters worse. If you treat it like it's routine, your pet will learn to do the same.

Try to figure out when your pet starts to show signs of anxiety and turn that into a low-key activity. If it's when you pick up your handbag, for example, practice picking it up and putting it back down several times over a few hours. Similarly, get dressed or put on your shoes earlier than usual but stay home instead of leaving right away. Try starting your car's engine and then turning it off and walking back inside.

Next, practice short absences. When you're at home, make it a point to spend some time in another room. In addition, leave the house long enough to run an errand or two, then gradually increase the time that you're away so that being gone for a full day becomes part of the family routine.

Changing the environment

Boredom makes separation anxiety worse. Providing an activity for your pet while you're gone, such as a puzzle toy stuffed with treats, or simply hiding treats around the house will make your absence less stressful. Other options for dogs and cats include collars and plug-in devices that release calming pheromones.

To maintain your bond while you're gone, place a piece of clothing that you have worn recently in a prominent place, such as on your bed or couch, to comfort your pet. Similarly, you can leave the TV or radio on—there are even special programs just for pets—or set up a camera so you can observe and interact with your pet remotely. Some of these come equipped with a laser pointer or treats you can dispense.

Using supplements or medication

In some severe cases, when the animal harms itself or causes property damage, medication or supplements might be necessary. These alter the brain's neurotransmitters to create a sense of calm.

While some are readily available without a prescription, it's a good idea to get advice from your veterinarian to determine which are safest and most effective for your pet's situation. Medication can help reduce the anxiety, making it easier for the pet to learn new coping skills. A behavior modification plan accompanying the use of medication can help manage this problem.

Separation anxiety is difficult for both you and your pet. But a few simple changes can make a huge difference as life returns to some semblance of normal.


Explore further What heading back to the office means for our pets

Provided by The Conversation

'Like finding life on Mars': why the underground orchid is Australia's strangest, most mysterious flower

by Mark Clements, The Conversation

DECEMBER 29, 2020

Rhizanthella speciosa from Barrington Tops. Credit: Mark Clements

If you ask someone to imagine an orchid, chances are pots of moth orchids lined up for sale in a hardware store will spring to mind, with their thick shiny leaves and vibrant petals.

But Australia's orchids are greater in number and stranger in form than many people realise. Rock orchids, fairy orchids, butterfly orchids, leek orchids and even onion orchids all look more or less the same. But would you recognise a clump of grass-like roots clinging to a tree trunk as an orchid?

What about a small, pale tuber that spends its whole life underground, blooms underground and smells like vanilla? This is the underground orchid, Rhizanthella, and it's perhaps the strangest Australian orchid of them all.

Even to me, having spent a lifetime researching orchids, the idea of a subterranean orchid is like finding life on Mars. I never expected to even see one, let alone have the privilege of working on them.

Known for almost a century, but rarely seen

The family Orchidaceae is the largest group of flowering plants on Earth, comprising more than 30,000 species. Australia is home to around 1,550 species and 95% are endemic, meaning they don't occur naturally anywhere else in the world.

Rhizanthella has been known to science since 1928, when a farmer in Western Australia who was ploughing mallee for wheat fields noticed a number of tuber-like plants among the roots of broom bushes. Recognising them as unusual, he sent some specimens to the Western Australian Herbarium.

Orchids like this may be what comes to mind when you think of them, but there are actually more 30,000 different orchid species. Credit: Shutterstock

In 1931, another underground orchid was discovered in eastern Australia at Bulahdelah in NSW by an orchid hunter who was digging up a hyacinth orchid and found an unusual plant tangled in its roots. Three quarters of a century later, I was involved in conserving the population of Rhizanthella in this location when the Bulahdelah bypass was built.

And most recently, in September, I confirmed an entirely new species of underground orchid, named Rhizanthella speciosa, after science illustrator Maree Elliott first stumbled upon it four years ago in Barrington Tops National Park, NSW.

Elliott's discovery brings the total number of Rhizanthella species known to science to five, with the other two from eastern Australia and two from Western Australia.

All species are vulnerable

For much of its life, an underground orchid exists in the soil as a small white rhizome (thickened underground stem). When it flowers, it remains hidden under leaf litter and soil close to the surface, its petals think and pink, its flower head a little larger than a 50 cent coin

.

The species Rhizanthella gardneri occurs in Western Australia. 

Credit: Fred Hort/Flickr, CC BY-SA

Its pollinator is probably a tiny fly that burrows down to lay eggs in the orchid, mistaking the flower for a fungus.

Today, all Rhizanthella species are vulnerable: the species R. gardneri and R. johnstonii are listed as critically endangered under national environment laws, while R. slateri and and R. omissa are listed as endangered. The most recently discovered species hasn't yet been listed, but its scarcity means it's probably highly vulnerable.

The conservation of the underground orchid is complicated. Knowing where it exists, and where it doesn't, is one problem. Another is knowing how to grow it.

All orchid species need a buddy, a particular soil fungus, for their seeds to germinate, and Rhizanthella must have its habitat to survive. Unfortunately, it's extremely difficult to just grow it in a pot.

The newly discovered species, Rhizanthella speciosa, found in Barrington Tops. 

Credit: Mark Clements, Author provided

Seeds like ball bearings

We also know very little about the biology of Rhizanthella. But here's what we do know.

We've discovered the fungus that buddies up with underground orchids in Western Australia is indeed the same as that in eastern Australia. We know underground orchids tend to grow in wetter forests and that burning will kill them. And we know that after pollination, the seed head of an underground orchid takes 11 months to mature.

Most orchids have wind-dispersed seeds. Some are so light that drifting between Queensland and Papua New Guinea might be possible, and might explain its vast distribution.

The seeds of underground orchids, however, are like ball bearings and the fruits smell like the famous vanilla orchid of Mexico, whose seeds and pods add scent and flavour to everything from candles to ice cream.

Rhizanthella speciosa. The seeds of underground orchids are like ball bearings, and the fruits smell like vanilla. Credit: Mark Clements, Author provided

In nature, bats disperse the seeds of the vanilla orchid. So we set up infra-red cameras in Bulahdelah as part of the bypass project to find out what animals might disperse the seeds of the underground orchid. We observed swamp wallabies and long-nosed bandicoots visiting the site where R. slateri grows.

We suspect they disperse the seeds of underground orchids via their excrement, finding the orchid among truffles and other goodies in the leaf litter and soil of the forest floor.

In Western Australia, these animals are locally extinct. Without bandicoots and wallabies to transport seeds away from the parent plant, the natural cycle of renewal and establishment of new plants has been broken. This cannot be good for the long-term survival of the two Western Australian Rhizanthella species.

Swamp wallabies and long-nosed bandicoots may disperse the underground orchid seeds, but they’re locally extinct in WA. Credit: Shutterstock

The floral structures of four described species of Rhizanthella: (a) R. slateri (b) R. omissa (c) R. johnstonii (d) R. gardneri. 

Credit: Chris J. Thorogood, Jeremy J. Bougoure et Simon J. Hiscock/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

An alien in the floral world

Conservation of the underground orchid might require intricate strategies, such as reintroducing bandicoots to a protected area, preventing bushfires and using alternatives to burning to manage the land.

An important first step is to find more populations of underground orchids to help us learn more about them.

Our work with DNA has shown, in the orchid family tree, Rhizanthella is most closely related to leek orchids (Prasophyllum) and onion orchids (Microtis).

But as you can see from the photo of a leek orchid above, it bears no resemblance to a subterranean flower, like an alien in the floral world.

Explore further Leek orchids are beautiful, endangered and we have no idea how to grow them

Provided by The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

INDIA
Crops grown in Bangalore high on toxic heavy metals

by SciDev.Net


Scientists in Bangalore, India have found toxic levels of four heavy metals, chromium, nickel, cadmium and lead, in crops and vegetables grown on soil irrigated with water from six lakes in the city, reports a study published December in Current Science.

According to the study, the 17 lakes in and around Bangalore, a bustling city of more than 12 million people, have become part of the city's drainage system, into which flow untreated sewage and industrial effluents from garment factories, electroplating industries, distilleries and other small-scale but polluting units. However, many farmers are now using water from these lakes to irrigate and water vegetable crops.

For the study, N.B. Prakash, a professor at the University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore and one of the authors of the study, analysed the soil and vegetable crops such as spinach, coriander greens, amaranth and kohlrabi, irrigated with water from six of these lakes—Margondanahalli, Yele Mallappa Shetty, Hoskote, Varthur, Byramangala and Jigani.

Soils irrigated by these lakes accumulate heavy metals to varying degrees depending on their concentration in the water and the frequency of irrigation, said the authors of the study. "The heavy metals are absorbed by the crops along with other essential plant nutrients."

Usha Dharmanand, consultant nutritionist with the Vikram Hospital in Bangalore, says that consuming contaminated vegetables and food crops in large quantities may lead to multiple health hazards.

Cadmium can be a carcinogen and an endocrine disruptor which can lead to fertility and reproductive issues in men and women while long-term exposure can lead to bone diseases, says Dharmanand.

Lead toxicity may result in anaemia, renal diseases and learning difficulties in children, excess chromium may lead to blood and gastrointestinal diseases and lung cancer while nickel is toxic to kidneys and reproductive organs, she adds.

The study found chromium content ranging from 7.93 to 56.15 milligrams per kilogram, exceeding the EU standard of 0.3 milligrams per kilogram, in all crops, but particularly high in coriander, spinach, radish, amaranth and kohlrab. Nickel exceeded permissible limits by 25 percent in all samples tested.

"If large water bodies turn toxic, it will become very difficult to purify them," says Prakash. "Farmers using contaminated lake water for farming end up contaminating the soil as well. There should be strict rules about the discharge of sewage water from residential apartments."

Remedial methods to remove heavy metals include physical excavation of contaminated soil, chemical treatment such as addition of lime, phosphates and silicon, biological methods including bioremediation and phytoremediation, says Prakash. "These would reduce the biomagnification of heavy metal toxicity."

C.A. Srinivasamurthy, former director of research at the Central Agricultural University, Imphal, Manipur, says: "This in-depth work on heavy metal contamination in soils and crops grown in peri-urban areas around Bangalore is very important as the lakes in and around Bangalore are being contaminated by indiscriminate discharge of untreated sewage and industrial effluents."

Can the situation be remedied? "The preliminary measure is to treat the wastewater (sewage and industrial effluents) at the source and well before it is allowed to reach large water bodies like Bangalore's lakes," says Prakash.

"Policymakers need to look into preventing heavy metal contamination of lakes, soils and crop plants. Stringent action must be taken by Bangalore Water Supply and Sewerage Board and Karnataka State Pollution Control Board in this regard," Prakash tells SciDev.Net.


Explore further New process to rinse heavy metals from soils

More information: Heavy metal contamination in soils and crops irrigated with lakes of Bengaluru, Current Science. DOI: 10.18520/cs/v119/i11/1845-1849

Provided by SciDev.Net

To help trudge through the snow, the Chang'e-5 recovery team wore powered exoskeletons

by Andy Tomaswick, Universe Today

Other worlds aren't the only difficult terrain personnel will have to traverse in humanity's exploration of the solar system. There are some parts of our own planet that are inhospitable and hard to travel over. Inner Mongolia, a northern province of China, would certainly classify as one of those areas, especially in winter. But that's exactly the terrain team members from the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASTC) had to traverse on December 16th to retrieve lunar samples from the Chang'e-5 mission. What was even more unique is that they did it with the help of exoskeletons.

Strangely enough, the workers wearing the exoskeletons weren't there to help with a difficult mountain ascent, or even pick up the payload of the lunar lander itself (which only weighed 2 kg). It was to set up a communications tent to connect the field team back to the main CASTC headquarters in Beijing.

The exoskeletons were designed to help people carry approximately twice as much as they would be able to. Local state media described a single person carrying 50kg over 100m of the rough terrain without becoming tired. Setting up communications equipment isn't all the exoskeletons are good for though. They were most recently used by Chinese military logistics and medical staff in the Himalayas, where the country has been facing down the Indian military over a disputed line of control.

One advantage those workers had is that they didn't have to charge their suits. The exoskeletons used for the Chang'e-5 mission were unpowered. This was a conscious design decision, given the harsh environments the suits will operate in. Bad weather can knock out electrical systems, and a powered exoskeleton without any battery simply becomes more weight to carry rather than a helpful tool. However, they will be less useful in eliminating fatigue without the extra push of electric motors.

Powered or not, this is certainly not the last time such suits will be used on space exploration missions. Similar technology could help future space explorers navigate the terrain of even less hospitable environments off world. The suits would just need to hitch a ride on a rocket first

Model used to evaluate lockdowns was flawed

by Lund University
DECEMBER 28, 2020

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

In a recent study, researchers from Imperial College London developed a model to assess the effect of different measures used to curb the spread of the coronavirus. However, the model had fundamental shortcomings and cannot be used to draw the published conclusions, claim Swedish researchers from Lund University, and other institutions, in the journal Nature.

The results from Imperial indicated that it was almost exclusively the complete societal lockdown that suppressed the wave of infections in Europe during spring.

The study estimated the effects of different measures such as social distancing, self-isolating, closing schools, banning public events and the lockdown itself.

"As the measures were introduced at roughly the same time over a few weeks in March, the mortality data used simply does not contain enough information to differentiate their individual effects. We have demontrated this by conducting a mathematical analysis. Using this as a basis, we then ran simulations using Imperial College's original code to illustrate how the model's sensitivity leads to unreliable results," explains Kristian Soltesz, associate professor in automatic control at Lund University and first author of the article.

The group's interest in the Imperial College model was roused by the fact that it explained almost all of the reduction in transmission during the spring via lockdowns in ten of the eleven countries modeled. The exception was Sweden, which never introduced a lockdown.

"In Sweden the model offered an entirely different measure as an explanation to the reduction—a measure that appeared almost ineffective in the other countries. It seemed almost too good to be true that an effective lockdown was introduced in every country except one, while another measure appeared to be unusually effective in this country", notes Soltesz.

Soltesz is careful to point out that it is entirely plausible that individual measures had an effect, but that the model could not be used to determine how effective they were.

"The various interventions do not appear to work in isolation from one another, but are often dependent upon each other. A change in behavior as a result of one intervention influences the effect of other interventions. How much and in what way is harder to know, and requires different skills and collaboration", says Anna Jöud, associate professor in epidemiology at Lund University and co-author of the study.

Analyzes of models from Imperial College and others highlight the importance of epidemiological models being reviewed, according to the authors.

"There is a major focus in the debate on sources of data and their reliability, but an almost total lack of systematic review of the sensitivity of different models in terms of parameters and data. This is just as important, especially when governments across the globe are using dynamic models as a basis for decisions", Soltesz and Jöud point out.

The first step is to carry out a correct analysis of the model's sensitivities. If they pose too great a problem then more reliable data is needed, often combined with a less complex model structure.

"With a lot at stake, it is wise to be humble when faced with fundamental limitations. Dynamic models are usable as long as they take into account the uncertainty of the assumptions on which they are based and the data they are led by. If this is not the case, the results are on a par with assumptions or guesses", concludes Soltesz.


Explore further COVID-19 in England: Analysis of the first two waves

More information: Kristian Soltesz et al, The effect of interventions on COVID-19, Nature (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-3025-y



Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe, Nature (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7
Journal information: Nature