Thursday, December 24, 2020

CAPITALI$M 
WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS 
Jack Ma: tycoon who soared on China's tech dreams grounded by regulators

by Helen Roxburgh
Jack Ma's rags-to-riches backstory has come to embody a self-confident generation of Chinese entrepreneurs ready to shake up the world

Jack Ma, the ebullient and unconventional billionaire founder of tech giant Alibaba and the totem of China's entrepreneurial brilliance, now finds himself up against a Communist leadership seemingly intent on hacking back his empire and issuing a lesson that no one is bigger than the party.

Ma, the most recognisable face in Asian business with a fortune estimated at around $58 billion, has already faced the ignominy of having the world's biggest-ever IPO spiked by Chinese regulators days before its launch.

The November share sale was set to see his wealth bulge to more than $70 billion in a record-breaking listing of the group's Ant Group financial arm in Hong Kong and Shanghai.

But Chinese regulators abruptly pulled the deal, over what initially appeared to be concerns about the company's reach into the finances of hundreds of millions of Chinese people.

It was a brutal public rebuke to Ma, who was then called in for dressing down by regulators and has since evaporated from the spotlight he normally so ably commands.

Now China's poster boy for enterprise finds himself again caught in the glare of the Communist-run state, with Thursday's announcement of an anti-monopoly probe into Alibaba, the tech giant he founded, and the summoning of Ant Group by regulators.

It is another public relations catastrophe for Ma, a Communist Party member, whose rags-to-riches backstory has come to embody a self-confident generation of Chinese entrepreneurs ready to shake up the world.

Charismatic, diminutive and fast-talking, Ma was cash-strapped and working as an English teacher when someone showed him the internet on a 1990s trip to the United States—and he was hooked.

He toyed with several internet-related projects, before convincing a group of friends to give him $60,000 to start a new business in 1999 in China, then still emerging as an economic giant.

Alibaba was the result, an e-commerce empire founded from his bedroom in Hangzhou and which started an online shopping revolution and grew into a fintech titan.

The company changed the shopping habits of hundreds of millions of Chinese people, and catapulted Ma into the global limelight.

"The first time I used the internet, I touched on the keyboard and I find 'well, this is something I believe, it is something that is going to change the world and change China'," Ma once told CNN.

In 2014, Alibaba listed in New York in a world-record $25 billion offering.

Ant Group, in which Ma is the largest shareholder, is now the world-largest digital payments platform, claiming 731 million monthly users on the Alipay app.

But there are fears it reaches too deeply into the pockets of ordinary Chinese with its micro-loans, investment and insurance products.

Crossed the line?


Ma long enjoyed an image as the benevolent and unconventional billionaire.

Sometimes referred to in China as "Father Ma", he is praised for his self-deprecation—he recounts being rejected by Harvard "10 times"—and a knack for lighting up company events with song-and-dance appearances as Lady Gaga, Snow White and Michael Jackson.

As his fortune grew, Ma rebranded as a philanthropist—in 2019 retiring from the business to focus on giving.

But even his charitable work betrays an idiosyncratic touch.

After footage of a little boy in a village in central China who looked like Ma went viral, the businessman promised to pay for him to go through university.

But that reputation may be in the balance with the regulatory slap-down playing into a growing sense shared on China's Twitter-like Weibo that he has leaned into hubris by criticising fintech regulators.

He has faced his share of travails over the years in a country where getting rich risks catching the attention of the powerful.

Eyebrows were raised when the state-run People's Daily revealed that he is a member of the Communist Party—something Ma has never fully commented on.

He had previously indicated that he preferred to keep the state at arm's length, telling the World Economic Forum in 2007: "My philosophy is to be in love with the government, but never marry them."

But perhaps the biggest challenges remain ahead, as the size and scale of his business mean that relationship may need to be renegotiated.


Explore further  Jack Ma: ebullient billionaire and totem of China's rise

China begins anti-monopoly probe into tech giant Alibaba


by Laurie Chen
DECEMBER 24, 2020

China has launched an anti-monopoly investigation into e-commerce giant Alibaba

China has launched an anti-monopoly investigation into Alibaba, regulators said Thursday, sending the share price of the e-commerce giant tumbling and intensifying the troubles of its billionaire founder Jack Ma.


Regulators will also hold "supervisory and guidance" talks with Alibaba's gigantic financial services subsidiary Ant Group, state media reported, just weeks after its record-breaking IPO was halted at the last minute by Beijing.

The continued squeeze on one of China's most influential companies is the latest sign that the Communist leadership is ready to deflate the ambitions of big tech firms in a runaway internet sector, which has made Ma one of China's richest people with an estimated $58 billion fortune.

Investigators are probing Alibaba for "suspected monopolistic practices", the State Administration for Market Regulation said in a statement.

The probe threatens to impede the growth of Alibaba, a tech juggernaut which revolutionised the e-commerce landscape of China.

Alibaba shares tumbled 8.6 percent to a five-month low in Hong Kong on the news.

In a statement, the company said it "will actively cooperate with the regulators on the investigation".

Financial services subsidiary Ant Group said it too would cooperate and "diligently study and strictly comply with regulatory departments' requests".

Profile of Jack Ma, co-founder of Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and Ant Group.

Ant Group made its name via its main product Alipay, the online payments platform and super-app that is now deeply embedded in China's economy.

But the company has also expanded into offering loans, credit, investments and insurance to hundreds of millions of consumers and small businesses, spurring fear and jealously in a wider banking system geared more for supporting state policy and large corporations.

Its reach into the daily spend of Chinese has also caused anxiety over the potential for personal debt to turn sour and toxify the wider economy.

As global demand for the dual Hong Kong-Shanghai listing pushed the IPO toward record valuations—potentially handing Ma and Ant Group even more funding, legitimacy and clout—Chinese regulators acted.

The outspoken and charismatic Ma—a former teacher—had previously lashed out at China's outdated financial system, calling state-owned banks "pawn shops" in an October speech that led to him being summoned for regulatory talks shortly before Ant's IPO was suspended.

He has edged away from the public limelight since the IPO collapsed.

No one bigger than the Party

Noises from the top of the Chinese Communist Party are ominous for companies perceived to have outsized ambitions.
Ant Group's massive IPO was halted at the last minute by Chinese authorities

Party leaders at last week's Central Economic Work Conference vowed to strengthen anti-trust measures and "firmly oppose monopolies" while the Party's executive Politburo body has also vowed to crack down on "disorderly capital expansion".

"There is an underlying political message, that no company, and no individual, can grow so big in China to the point where they can potentially challenge the authority of the CCP," Richard McGregor, senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, told AFP.

This year, Beijing has also implemented new regulations to contain potential risks in China's growing online lending industry, as the fintech arms of internet firms including Alibaba and Tencent have expanded and consolidated power over the market.

"Undoubtedly, Ant will now become a very different company in structure and in balance sheet," said Ryan Manuel, Chief Asia Strategist at Silverhorn Investment.

"Its regulatory environment will appear more like that of a financial services provider and less of a tech company. Its growth will slow. Its market valuation will decrease."

China's market regulator in November issued draft antitrust guidelines for internet platform economies that highlighted examples of anti-competitive behaviour.

State media have repeatedly called for tighter oversight of these firms, warning of potential financial instability as a result of their unregulated rapid growth.

Bad debt in China's chaotic financial system is a perennial risk, and regulators launched a crackdown on a growing nationwide credit addiction three years ago owing to fears of a financial meltdown.

Ant Group fiasco reflects battle for China's financial soul

by Dan Martin With Beiyi Seow In Beijing

NOVEMBER 5, 2020
Ant Group's Alipay platform has helped revolutionise commerce and personal finance in China

China's last-minute abandonment of Ant Group's record-breaking IPO stems from an intensifying battle for the soul of the nation's financial system that the fintech giant and its charismatic leader Jack Ma helped to ignite.

Global markets were stunned Tuesday when Ant's record-breaking $34 billion IPO was abruptly shelved, frustrating investors eager for a piece of the fast-growing company.

The debacle has prompted head-scratching over how the IPO got so close –- shares were to begin trading Thursday -– only to collapse at the finish line.

Analysts say it was the culmination of an escalating rivalry between Ma, Ant's co-founder and the billionaire founder of Alibaba, and a state-dominated Chinese banking and regulatory system controlled by the Communist Party that has become uncomfortable with Ant's growing power.

Ant Group made its name via its main product Alipay, the online payments platform and super-app that is now deeply embedded in China's economy.

But the company has also expanded into offering loans, credit, investments and insurance to hundreds of millions of consumers and small businesses, spurring fear and jealously in a wider banking system geared more for supporting state policy and large corporations.

As global demand for the dual Hong Kong-Shanghai listing pushed the IPO toward record valuations—potentially handing Ma and Ant Group even more funding, legitimacy and clout—Chinese regulators acted.

In recent weeks, new minimum capital requirements and other restrictions on online lending were imposed to guard against "systemic risk", plugging some of the regulatory gaps that Ant Group had stepped through, analysts said.

"Given the magnitude of Ant Group's operations, the regulators might have felt that they did not have an appropriate handle on the flow of money being processed through Ant Group products," said Philippe Espinasse, a capital markets consultant and former investment banker.
Jack Ma, co-founder of ecommerce titan Alibaba, had stood to become Asia's richest man via Ant Group's IPO

Ma sounds off


The moves angered Ma, 56, who had stood to become Asia's richest man via the IPO.

He uncharacteristically lashed out in a speech two weeks ago, saying capital requirements were outdated and that China lacked a true "financial ecosystem".


Ma likened Chinese banks to "pawn shops" for requiring loan collateral and implied that they underserved smaller, younger borrowers.

Chinese public figures rarely call out the government, and the reaction was swift.

A series of commentaries in government media mouthpieces pushed back against Ma, warning of extensive risks from online lenders like Ant Group and vowing tighter supervision.

Things came to a head Monday when Ma and two other Ant executives were summoned to a highly unusual meeting with financial regulators.

Exact details of the talks remain unknown, but the next day the Shanghai exchange pulled the IPO.

Ma's critiques "didn't sit well with regulators, many of whom have been grappling with the risks of micro-lending", said Alex Capri, a research fellow at Hinrich Foundation.

"Ant has grown too large and too influential as a financial institution in China, something that will not be tolerated by the (ruling Communist Party)," Capri said.

Experts say a robust online lending sector is needed to meet the needs of ordinary consumers but that China has reason to fear a borrowing binge.

Bad debt in the country's chaotic financial system is a perennial risk, and regulators launched a crackdown on a growing nationwide credit addiction three years ago owing to fears of a financial meltdown.

'Awful' timing

But Ant now boasts around 500 million users of its loan and credit products, which allow consumers to take out cash loans or access revolving credit lines.

This has stoked fears of a younger digital generation with little risk awareness falling into a life-long debt spiral, said Zhang Gang, a strategist with Central China Securities.

"Because of Ant's scale and influence, they may dominate private lending in the future and ... (acquire) private lending companies," said Zhang, who feels tighter regulations are badly needed.


The IPO is expected to eventually go ahead after Ant complies with the new regulatory requirements, which it has vowed to do, although analysts expect the size and valuation to be lower in light of the curbs on Ant's businesses.

But the "awful" timing of the IPO's withdrawal could dent China's hopes of being viewed as a financial and technology force to rival the United States, said Espinasse.

Beijing is pushing its national tech champions to list on China's stock exchanges rather than in the US, partly because of an escalating bilateral rivalry.

"This potentially has significant implications, not just for homecoming listings but also for listings of Chinese tech companies more generally," Espinasse said.

"Ultimately, financial markets are all about trust and transparency and it looks like we don't have that right now."


China's Ant Group postpones IPO under regulatory pressure


by Dan Martin, With Jing Xuan Teng In Beijing
NOVEMBER 3, 2020

Ant Group chief chairman Jack Ma was summoned with other executives to meet central bank and regulatory officials

China's Ant Group on Tuesday suspended its record-breaking IPO in both Hong Kong and Shanghai as the fintech giant faces growing pressure from Chinese regulators over potential risks.

The firm's Alipay platform has helped revolutionise commerce and personal finance in China, with consumers using the smartphone app to pay for everything from meals to groceries and travel tickets.

But Ant Group, which has more than 700 million monthly active users, has also caused concern in China's state-controlled finance sector by venturing into personal and consumer lending, wealth management and insurance.

Ant will suspend both legs of its $34 billion listing—originally set to take place this week—after being ordered by Chinese regulators to postpone its Shanghai offering over concerns it would not meet listing requirements, the company said in a filing Tuesday.

The Shanghai stock exchange issued the surprise order due to "major issues such as changes in the fintech supervisory environment", the bourse said in a separate statement on the same day.

The shock announcement sent the New York-listed shares of affiliated e-commerce titan Alibaba plunging by as much as nine percent as US markets opened Tuesday.

The suspension comes after co-founder Jack Ma, Ant Group chairman Eric Jing, and chief executive Simon Hu were summoned to an unusual meeting with regulators on Monday, while state media have recently issued warnings about potential financial instability that could result from Ant Group's rapid growth.

It also follows new state regulations to contain potential risks in China's growing online lending industry, a sector Ant Group has aggressively moved into.

Fintech risks


China's regulators are "attempting to maintain control over a fintech sector that is already huge, profitable, and rapidly evolving," Brock Silvers, chief investment officer at Kaiyuan Capital, told AFP.

Ma, one of China's richest and most powerful business figures as well as Ant Group's controlling shareholder, has faced state media criticism for comments in late October in which he boasted of the size of the IPO and appeared to criticise regulators for stifling fintech innovation.

A Sunday commentary in the state-controlled Financial News warned of internet giants like Ant Group getting too big, saying any resulting systemic problems "will lead to serious risk contagion".

The state-owned Economic Daily newspaper responded Tuesday to the suspension calling it a demonstration of regulators' determination to "safeguard the interests of investors".

"Those who try to subvert the existing system will certainly offend the vested interests just like taxi drivers do not like Uber," said Ivan Li, investment research director of CSL Securities in Hong Kong.

Ant said in a separate social media post Tuesday that it "sincerely apologizes... for any inconvenience caused by this development", adding that it would cooperate with regulators.

The share sale was set to beat the $29 billion chalked up by previous record-holder Saudi Aramco last December.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange said Tuesday it had been notified by Ant of the suspension but would not comment on specific listings.

Beijing has called on national flagships of the tech sector to list on domestic stock exchanges rather than fundraise in the US, in a period of sharp economic and political rivalry.


Alibaba fintech arm gets nod for record IPO listing in Hong Kong


OCTOBER 19, 2020
Ant Group runs Alipay, one of China's two dominant online payment systems

The financial arm of Chinese e-commerce titan Alibaba received Monday a green light from Chinese regulators to list in Hong Kong, according to data published online, another step towards the biggest IPO in history.


Ant Group aims to raise a massive $35 billion via the share sale in a joint listing in the semi-autonomous finance hub and Shanghai, Bloomberg News has previously reported, citing unnamed sources.

The company is looking to raise the cash—far more than the $29 billion chalked up by Saudi Aramco in December—in a split float between the two Chinese cities, Bloomberg said.

The plan values Ant Group at about $250 billion, it added.

The company runs Alipay, the dominant online payment system in China, where cash, cheques and credit cards have long been eclipsed by e-payment devices and apps.

According to a report in Hong Kong's South China Morning Post, Ant Group has also been granted approval by the city's stock exchange.

In September, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Star Market platform gave its go ahead for a listing, which meant the Hangzhou-based firm only needs a final, formal approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).

In its August filing, Ant said it would use the proceeds to expand cross-border payments and enhance its research-and-development capabilities.

The decision not to list in New York is a big loss for US markets and comes as Washington ramps up scrutiny of Chinese tech firms.

A number of high-profile Chinese firms—especially those in the tech sector—have turned to Hong Kong owing to tension between Washington and Beijing.

It is also a shot in the arm for Hong Kong as fears mount over the potential fallout of Beijing's imposition of a new national security law on the city.


Explore further


GREEN CAPITALI$M

Future material demand for automotive 
lithium-based batteries

by Thamarasee Jeewandara , Tech Xplore
DECEMBER 24, 2020 FEATURE


Global EV stock development projected until 2050. BEV battery electric vehicle, PHEV plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, STEP scenario the Stated Policies scenario, SD scenario Sustainable Development scenario. Credit: Nature Communications Materials, doi: 10.1038/s43246-020-00095-x

As the world shifts to electric vehicles to reduce climate change, it is important to quantify future demands for key battery materials. In a new report, Chengjian Xu, Bernhard Steubing and a research team at the Leiden University, Netherlands and the Argonne National Laboratory in the U.S. showed how the demands of a lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese oxide dominated battery will increase by many factors between 2020 to 2050. As a result, supply chains for lithium, cobalt and nickel will require significant expansion and likely additional resource discovery. Nevertheless, uncertainties are large relative to the development of electrical vehicle fleets and battery capacities per vehicle. While closed-loop recycling plays a minor but increasingly important role to reduce the primary material demand until 2050, researchers must implement advanced recycling strategies to economically recover battery-grade materials from end-of-life batteries. This work is now published on Nature Communications Materials.


The evolution of electric vehicles (EVs)


Electric vehicles (EVs) have a reduced climate impact compared to vehicles with internal combustion engines. This advantage has led to a massive increase in demand, where global fleets have grown from a few thousand from just a decade ago, up to 7.5 million in 2019. However, the global average market of the vehicles is still limited, while future growth is expected to dwarf past growth in absolute numbers. Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are presently the dominant technology for electric vehicles, and typical automotive LIBs contain lithium, cobalt and nickel in the cathode, with graphite in the anode, alongside aluminum and copper in other components. Battery technology is currently advancing for new and improved chemistries. In this work, Xu et al. studied the global material demand for light-duty electric vehicle batteries from lithium, nickel, and cobalt to graphite and silicon and connected the material demands to the ongoing production capacities and known reserves to discuss key factors to improve batteries. The work will assist the transition to electric vehicles by providing insight to the future battery material demand, alongside key factors driving it.

Battery market shares and yearly EV battery sales until 2050 for the fleet development in the STEP scenario. (a) NCX scenario. (b) LFP scenario. (c) Li-S/Air scenario. LFP lithium iron phosphate battery, NCM lithium nickel cobalt manganese battery, Numbers in NCM111, NCM523, NCM622, NCM811, and NCM955 denote ratios of nickel, cobalt, and manganese. NCA lithium nickel cobalt aluminum battery, Graphite (Si) graphite anode with some fraction of silicon, Li-S lithium-sulphur battery, Li-Air lithium-air battery, TWh 109 kWh. Credit: Nature Communications Materials, doi: 10.1038/s43246-020-00095-x

The fleet growth of electric vehicles (EVs)


The team projected the EV fleet growth based on two scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) until 2030. These include the stated policies (STEP) relative to existing government policies and the sustainable development (SD) scenario compatible with the Paris Agreement climate goals of reaching a 30 percent global sale for EVs by 2030. In this analysis, Xu et al. extended these scenarios until 2050. To meet the STEP scenario, a battery capacity of approximately 6 TWh will be required annually by 2050. The material requirements will depend on the choice of battery chemistries used with three battery chemistries currently in consideration.

The most likely scenario will follow the current trend of the widespread use of lithium nickel cobalt aluminum (NCA) and lithium nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) batteries (henceforth known as the NCX, in which X stands for aluminum or manganese). This will lead to the evolution of battery chemistries by 2030. The lithium iron phosphates (LFP) that can constitute the lithium-ion battery cathode material are expected to be in use increasingly for electric vehicles in the future. While their lower specific energy can affect the fuel economy and range of EVs, the LFPs are advantageous due to lower production costs, better thermal stability and longer life cycle. Although the use of LFP batteries is currently common in commercial transport vehicles such as buses, there are also prospects for widespread use in light-duty EVs, including Teslas.
Battery material flows from 2020 to 2050 for lithium, nickel, and cobalt in the NCX, LFP, and Li-S/Air battery scenarios. (a) Primary material demand. (b) materials in end-of-life batteries. STEP scenario the Stated Policies scenario, SD scenario Sustainable Development scenario, Mt million tons. Credit: Nature Communications Materials, doi: 10.1038/s43246-020-00095-x

Battery material demand and recycling potentials

The scientists then assessed the global demand for EV (electric vehicle) batteries and noted the growing demand for lithium to only be slightly influenced by the specific chemistry of the battery, while the specific battery chemistries of nickel and cobalt had a stronger influence on their demand. The team further projected an increased demand for lithium-ion batteries, followed by the demand for nickel from 2020 to 2050. In this way, they predicted the cumulative demand from 2020 to 2050 to range from 7.3 to 18.3 million tons (Mt) for Li, 3.5–16.8 Mt for Co, and 18.1–88.9 Mt for Ni.

Xu et al. next showed the materials present in end-of-life batteries across time and discussed how recovering them would help reduce primary material production. The existing commercial recycling methods for EV batteries include pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical processing. Pyrometallurgical recycling includes smelting entire batteries or battery components after pre-treatment. Hydrometallurgical processing is based on acid leaching and the subsequent recovery of battery materials via solvent extraction and precipitation methods. In closed loop recycling, pyrometallurgical processing can be followed by hydrometallurgical processing to convert an alloy into metal salts. Direct recycling aims to recover cathode materials while maintaining their chemical structures for economic and environmental advantages, however, this method is still in its early stages of development.

Conceptual schematic showing how the three considered recycling scenarios close battery material loops and which materials are recovered. In reality not all materials go through all processing steps. For example, pyrometallurgical recycling (smelting) still requires hydrometallurgical processing (leaching) before cathode materials can be produced, while direct recycling is designed to recover cathode materials directly. In pyro- and hydrometallurgical recycling the recovery of Li may not be economical and in pyrometallurgical recycling graphite is incinerated and Al not recovered from the slag. Credit: Nature Communications Materials, doi: 10.1038/s43246-020-00095-x

Outlook for electric vehicles (EVs)


In this way, Chengjian Xu, Bernhard Steubing and colleagues developed models to show how battery production capacity for lithium, nickel and cobalt will have to increase significantly since demands for electric vehicles could outgrow current production rates even before 2025. The battery materials can be supplied without exceeding existing production capacities, although supplies will have to increase to meet demands from other sectors. The outlined supply risks can change with the potential discovery of new reserves. The demand for battery capacity will depend on technical factors such as vehicle design, weight and fuel efficiency as well as the fleet size and consumer choices relative to the size and range of EVs.
Closed-loop recycling potential of battery materials in periods of 2020–2029, 2030–2039, and 2040–2050 in the STEP scenario. Hydrometallurgical recycling is used for NCX and LFP batteries and mechanical recovery of Li metal for Li-S and Li-Air batteries. Gray dots show how second-use, which postpones the time of recycling, reduces the closed-loop recycling potentials and thus the availability of secondary materials in the coming decades. 
Credit: Nature Communications Materials, doi: 10.1038/s43246-020-00095-x

The method of direct recycling is the most economic and environmentally favored closed-loop recycling process since it can allow the recovery of cathode materials without smelting and leaching processes. Successful transition to electric vehicles will depend on sustained material supply that can keep up with the growth of the sector. Scientific sustainability assessments including life cycle evaluations of chemistries will guide the selection of alternative battery chemistries and raw materials. The global demands projected in this work also provide a platform to monitor the global economic environmental and social impacts of electric vehicles and their batteries.

Explore further
New class of cobalt-free cathodes could enhance energy density of next-gen lithium-ion batteries
More information: Xu C. et al. Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries, Nature Communications Materials, doi.org/10.1038/s43246-020-00095-x

Knobloch, F., et al. Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time, Nature Sustainability doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0488-7

Ponrouch A. & Palacin R. A. Post-Li batteries: promises and challenges. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2018.0297

Journal information: Nature Sustainability , Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A

© 2020 Science X Network



DEEP MIND VS MS. PAC-MAN

DeepMind's MuZero conquers and learns the rules as it does

by Peter Grad , Tech Xplore
Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain

Albert Einstein once said, "You have to learn the rules of the game, and then you have to play better than anyone else." That could well be the motto at DeepMind, as a new report reveals it has developed a program that can master complex games without even knowing the rules.


DeepMind, a subsidiary of Alphabet, has previously made groundbreaking strides using reinforcement learning to teach programs to master the Chinese board game Go and the Japanese strategy game Shogi, as well as chess and challenging Atari video games. In all those instances, computers were given the rules of the game.

But Nature reported today that DeepMind's MuZero has accomplished the same feats—and in some instances, beat the earlier programs—without first learning the rules.

Programmers at DeepMind relied on a principle called "look-ahead search." With that approach, MuZero assesses a number of potential moves based on how an opponent would respond. While there would likely be a staggering number of potential moves in complex games such as chess, MuZero prioritizes the most relevant and most likely maneuvers, learning from successful gambits and avoiding ones that failed.

When performing against Atari's Ms. Pac-Man, MuZero was restricted to considering only six or seven potential future moves, yet still performed admirably, according to researchers.

"For the first time, we actually have a system that is able to build its own understanding of how the world works and use that understanding to do this kind of sophisticated look-ahead planning that you've previously seen for games like chess," said DeepMind's principal research scientist David Silver. MuZero can "start from nothing, and just through trial and error, both discover the rules of the world and use those rules to achieve kind of superhuman performance."

Silver envisions greater applications for MuZero than mere games. Progress has already been made on video compression, a challenging task considering the huge number of varying video formats and numerous modes of compression. So far, they have achieved a 5% improvement in compression, no small feat for the company owned by Google, which also handles the gigantic cache of videos on the world's second-most popular web site, YouTube, where a billion hours of content are viewed daily. (The No. 1 web site? Google.)

Silver says the laboratory is also looking into robotics programming and protein architecture design, which holds promise for personalized production of drugs.


It is a "significant step forward," according to Wendy Hall, professor of computer science at the University of Southampton and a member of England's AI council. "The results of DeepMind's work are quite astounding and I marvel at what they are going to be able to achieve in the future given the resources they have available to them," she said.

But she also raised a concern about the potential of abuse. "My worry is that whilst constantly striving to improve the performance of their algorithms and apply the results for the benefit of society, the teams at DeepMind are not putting as much effort into thinking through potential unintended consequences of their work," she said.

In fact, the U.S. Air Force had tapped early research papers covering MuZero that were made public last year and used the information to design an AI system that could launch missiles from a U-2 spy plane against specified targets.

When asked by Wired what he thought of such military applications, Silver left no doubt about his concerns.

"I oppose the use of AI in any deadly weapon, and I wish we had made more progress toward a ban on lethal autonomous weapons," he said. He added that DeepMind and its co-founders have all signed the Lethal Autonomous Weapons Pledge, which asserts the belief that deadly technology should always remain under human control, and not AI-based algorithms.

Silver says the challenges ahead are to understand and implement algorithms as effective and powerful as the human brain. "We should be aiming to achieve that. The first step in taking that journey is to try to understand what it even means to achieve intelligence," he said. "We think this really matters for enriching what AI can actually do because the world is a messy place. It's unknown—no one gives us this amazing rulebook that says, "Oh, this is exactly how the world works,'" Silver said. "If we want our AI to go out there into the world and be able to plan and look ahead in problems where no one gives us the rulebook, we really, really need this."


Explore further Alphabet's DeepMind masters Atari games

More information: Julian Schrittwieser et al. Mastering Atari, Go, chess and shogi by planning with a learned model, Nature (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-03051-4

Journal information: Nature
Prairie farmers using high-end Wagyu genetics to create 'snow beef'

© Laura Sciarpelletti/CBC Ian Crosbie with a 10-week-old Wagyu-cross calf at Benbie Holsteins in south-central Saskatchewan, his farm just outside the village of Caronport, about 90 kilometres west of Regina.

Benbie Holsteins in south-central Saskatchewan milks 150 Holsteins every day, but the dairy farm does not need all of its heifer calves for milking, so the remainder are used for something very different: snow beef.

Snow beef comes from artificially inseminating a Holstein heifer with whole blood Japanese Wagyu, the world's most expensive and exclusive beef.

After becoming interested in the luxury beef's story, farmer Ian Crosbie bought full blood semen from Wagyu Sekai in Puslinch, Ont., and began an artificial insemination program. He launched the snow beef product in 2018 at his farm just outside the village of Caronport, about 90 kilometres west of Regina.

"It was an investment; a bit of a risk at the time, too," said Crosbie, who would not say how much it cost him. "But it all stemmed from us doing a better job of managing our dairy herd to begin with."

Canada's beef industry produces about 1.55 million tonnes of meat each year, according to the Canadian Cattlemen's Association. In 2019, the cattle industry generated $9.4 billion in farm cash receipts

.
© CBC Crosbie, who grew up on a farm, launched his snow beef product in 2018. 'It was an investment; a bit of a risk at the time, too,' he says.

There are only a handful of snow beef producers in Canada, but Crosbie's leap of faith is a sign of how some are getting creative with their products as a way to stand out in a massive market and appeal to consumers who are increasingly conscious of the quality of the meat they're buying and its origin story.

Interest in cattle breeding runs deep

Crosbie, 29, has been fascinated with animal breeding since he was 10 years old. Growing up on a farm, he loved picking out which Holstein bulls his family was going to use next for breeding.

"I've been very fascinated with seeing what you can produce from just a thought in your own head, to applying it practically on the farm — what you can wind up producing and how you can see the change in the animals over the generations," he said.

Crosbie's great-grandfather established the farm west of Moose Jaw, Sask., after the Second World War, and it has been family owned and operated ever since.

"It's been in my blood. It was right from the get-go. I always remember racing Dad in the winter months back from the barn.... That's stuck with me forever. It never crossed my mind to do anything other than farming."

Raising Wagyu-cross breeds

The snow beef difference isn't just buried in its DNA. Regular Holsteins are black and white, but the Holstein heifers that have been artificially inseminated with Wagyu semen produce calves that are only black at birth.

Crosbie said Wagyu crosses also have distinctly healthy characteristics.

"They come out with a lot of hybrid vigour, because when you cross two very distinct bloodlines, you get extremely aggressive, healthy calves right from the get-go. They just do really well."

Another trait that sets the Wagyu crosses apart from Holstein dairy cows is their temperament. The crosses are extremely friendly and will nuzzle humans.

Wagyu crosses are also more lean and feminine-looking than a typical Holstein, and they take longer to reach their peak size.
© Laura Sciarpelletti/CBC One of the massive Wagyu-cross cows in the finishing pen at Benbie Holsteins.

By the time Holsteins are a year old, they're put on a full regimented finishing diet and will be on feed for about 150 days to add weight. When they hit the optimal 590-kilogram mark, they're between 15 and 18 months old. That's when they are sent to the abattoir.

But Wagyu crosses only start their finishing diet when they are about 15 months old, and they won't head to the abattoir until they are 28 or 29 months old. This allows them to grow much taller than a typical Holstein and put on massive frames.

The crosses are fed a specialized grain regimen of rolled barley, whole oats, distiller's grain from wheat or corn, molasses and a mineral mixture imported from Texas.

"That helps us get the fat content," Crosbie said. "The oleic acid levels actually rise the longer an animal's on feed, too. You're putting more money into it, but what you get out of is very much so worth it."

Tasting the difference

The main thing that sets a Wagyu steak apart from a regular steak is the fat. Wagyu contains intramuscular fat or marbling — contributing to the name "snow beef." This is hailed by chefs and home cooks alike because of the rich, buttery texture it provides.

"The fat itself is just a completely different fat," Crosbie said.

Snow beef is higher in unsaturated fats and lower in saturated fats.

"It's like the difference in going and getting a vegetable oil in the supermarket: You can get your cheapest oils, your canola oils, your sunflower oils or your olive oils. There's a wide variety of them, and with beef it's no different," he said.

"When you cook that steak, all that fat will melt away, and that's what gives you that buttery taste to the meat and gives you a really good texture — and the best bite of steak you'll have in your life."

Chef takes note

Jonathan Thauberger, executive chef and partner at Crave Kitchen and Wine Bar in Regina, had never had Wagyu crossed with Holstein beef before he tried Crosbie's snow beef.

"When we came across the Holsteins [cross], it was really interesting. The strip loin is about twice the size of an Angus-Wagyu cross. It's very big, very long and pretty incredible," Thauberger said.

"To my palate, I find it almost tastes a little bit more beefy. It's rich. It's got a little bit more flavour. It's very delicious."
© Laura Sciarpelletti/CBC Jonathan Thauberger, executive chef and partner at Crave Kitchen and Wine Bar in Regina, preparing snow beef carpaccio.

Thauberger uses every part of snow beef that comes through his restaurant's kitchen doors when he orders it. Snow beef is sometimes offered as a butcher's cut and a carpaccio on the menu, among other items. He even makes pemmican — whipped snow beef fat with snow beef jerky and dried fruit.

He said his customers particularly appreciate hearing the story of where the snow beef comes from.

"You're talking about a local farmer who's doing this boutique product. You can come here on any particular day and have a different cut from this animal and taste how it's different from cut to cut, animal to animal, even. It's a great story."
© Laura Sciarpelletti/CBC The rich marbling of snow beef can be seen in Crave's carpaccio.

Consumers looking to feel connected to farms


Jeff Nonay and his wife run a mixed dairy farm in Sturgeon County, Alta. They produce dairy, cheese, potatoes and beef — Wagyu-cross beef, to be exact. Like Crosbie, Nonay crosses the Wagyu genetics with Holstein genetics.

Nonay, who's been marketing his product for four years, said that while he cannot produce on a large scale, the demand and interest are there.

"When you think about Alberta and you think about beef, being able to brand something off a specific farm and consistently produce quality that becomes recognized is a pretty interesting feat," he said.

"It tells you quite a bit about what consumers want and the connection they have directly to the farm, adding value, adding to the experience."
© Amara Dirks Photography Jeff Nonay and family with their Wagyu-crosses and Holstein cows at their mixed dairy farm in Sturgeon County, Alta.

Nonay said the Wagyu-cross market is a niche one, so there is potential for it to grow exponentially.

Ryder Lee, CEO of the Saskatchewan Cattlemen's Association, said products such as snow beef help to connect consumers with what producers are doing in genetics.

"I think that's something that all cattle producers would like to do but aren't always able to do," Lee said.

His father experimented with genetics in the 1970s, bringing semen from the United States to crossbreed his herd with.

"They were actually called exotic breeds, and they are now part of the mainstream in Canada."

Lee said things have since changed due to producers' ability to communicate their breeding stories with the media and consumers.

"I think the mainstream industry is now just trying to make sure that people know the story of Canada — know the story about cattle on the land and the good that we provide for the habitat, for the environment and for your diet."
© Laura Sciarpelletti/CBC A snow beef steak, left, and a regular steak, right.

Snow beef sales increasing

Prairie Meats in Saskatoon is the latest business to partner with Crosbie and sell packaged snow beef cuts. CEO Casey Collins said that Saskatchewan residents are keen to support local farmers when they're at the butcher shop.

"This allows them to have a high-end dining experience but also understand where it came from and stay within 50 miles of where they live."

© Radio-Canada Prairie Meats in Saskatoon carries Ian Crosbie's Saskatchewan Snow Beef.

Benbie Holsteins markets snow beef exclusively in Saskatchewan. Ian Crosbie, the owner, said it is difficult for small farms and niche brands to market their product nationally due to federal plant restrictions.

"That makes it difficult for small niche beef brands to grow."

But he is hopeful.


Benbie Holsteins produced 6,800 kilograms of beef this year, and Crosbie said he hopes to double that by 2022.

Collins said the market has changed over the years: People's diets are different due to the amount of protein they are being told to consume, and their palates are changing.

"In 2019, consumption of beef per capita amounted to around 27.4 kilograms in Canada," according to Statista, a market and consumer research company based in Germany. "This figure is forecast to decrease to 26.7 kilograms in 2021. This expected decrease follows a long-term downward trend: in the year 1980, consumption per capita was 38.8 kilograms."

"The trend is that they're not eating red meat maybe as often as they used to, but when they do, they want to make sure it's a great experience," Collins said.

"And the fact is that even producers in general are having to pay more focus to how they raise their animals, how they grade out, how the quality is. And Ian is doing an excellent job of that."



Howard Levitt: Ontario's latest bailout of companies means laid-off employees may have to wait until 2022 to get severance pay

The most common COVID-19 related employment law issue, from the start of the pandemic to now, has been layoffs
.
© Provided by Financial Post As COVID-19 persisted, many employees were never recalled and had stood on their rights too long, implicitly accepting their layoff and reducing the likelihood of a win if they eventually sued.

Employees are asking lawyers whether their employer can place them on a temporary layoff, with no pay to support their family. Or whether they can be forced to take a 25 per cent pay cut.

Employers, for their part, seek legal advice about employees that they can’t afford to pay. If they lay them off, must they pay dismissal damages which they can’t currently afford?

The answers are not always straightforward.

Howard Levitt: Remote working arrangements need to be codified with clear guidelines to boost productivity

In the early days of the virus, in March and April, we were able to tell employees, ‘yes, you can absolutely sue for wrongful dismissal if you are laid off — provided you are non-union, the government did not order your company to entirely shut down and your employment contract did not permit layoffs (99 per cent of contracts did not at the time)’.

Employees were optimistic, expecting to be shortly recalled and understandably reluctant to burn their bridges by suing. Despite their legal right, few did.

As it happened, many employees did not get recalled but had stood on their rights too long, implicitly accepting their layoff and reducing the likelihood of a win if they eventually sued.

They became stuck in limbo, hoping that the Employment Standards Act, 2000 — the legislation that governs temporary layoffs — would come to their rescue. The Act only allowed for a temporary layoff of up to 35 weeks (in Ontario and of different lengths in other provinces). This was a long time to wait, but would come eventually if employees scrimped and saved in the meantime.

To be clear, the ESA provisions of most provinces did not prevent laid off employees from suing for wrongful dismissal at the time of the layoff. But what they did do, for those employees who chose not to sue initially, was give them another opportunity to do so when the permissible layoff under legislation expired and converted those layoffs into legal dismissals for all purposes.

Appreciating that employers were headed for a colossal payday when hundreds of thousands of employees’ temporary layoffs under the Act would automatically end after 35 weeks, the Ontario government bailed out companies.

It introduced the ‘Infectious Disease Emergency Leave’ (IDEL) on March 19, deeming temporarily laid off employees to be on a COVID-19 emergency leave and not entitled to severance pay until the government mandated leave ended.

This end date was initially scheduled for January 2, 2021. With this announcement, employees saw their long-anticipated severance packages vanish overnight with a future promise that they would become due after January 2.

However, in another surprise move last week, the Ontario government did this to employees again — moved the COVID-19 emergency leave expiry date to July 3, 2021 and hence the long-awaited promise of severance packages would have to wait for most for at least another 35 weeks after that. That last chance to sue has suddenly become illusory, as employees have to wait till 2022 to get severance pay.

So long as the COVID-19 leave is in effect, non-unionized employees whose wages or hours have been temporarily reduced or eliminated for reasons due to COVID-19 are not considered to be laid off or constructively dismissed under the Ontario ESA.

This is a win for employers who will be protected to a large extent against having to pay severance if they can’t recall laid off employees by July 3, 2021 and 35 weeks thereafter — another six-plus months to hope restrictions lift and business returns.

It’s a loss for employees whose severance packages are now on the other side of the rainbow, nor is there a holiday bonus for many of them.

Ontario companies will see their employees’ “temporary layoff clock” reset on July 3, 2021 and the following timelines will be triggered: Unpaid temporary layoffs lasting 13 weeks or more (during any 20-week period) will be deemed a termination of employment; and paid temporary layoffs or layoffs where benefits continue to be paid lasting 35 weeks or more (during any 52-week period) will be deemed a termination of employment.

Employers whose business has not resumed or who need to keep employees on reduced hours or wages will need to consider how to address these issues.

A raft of lawsuits may yet occur, but it will be very much in the future by which time, employers hope, the employee will find another job and have no damages to sue for. All employees will recover — if they know to claim it — is the employment standards minimums.

Employees who have sat on their rights by not objecting to their layoff or reduction in wages, may have to wait for a long time for any sort of a severance package. If they have only recently been laid off or had their wages reduced, now is the time to sue for constructive dismissal or otherwise attempt to negotiate a severance package, because they cannot rely on the ESA coming to their rescue.

The other opportunity for laid off employees to sue is when other employees are recalled and they are not. At that point, they can claim wrongful dismissal.

If they have not already done so, we strongly encourage companies and employees to obtain sophisticated employment law advice regarding their rights and obligations relating to layoffs — which include reduction of employees’ hours or wages.


MANAGEMENT LAWYER
Howard Levitt is senior partner of LSCS Law, employment and labour lawyers. He practises employment law in eight provinces. He is the author of six books including the Law of Dismissal in Cana
'What's the alternative?' 
SolarWinds boosts security firms' bottom lines

By Paresh Dave
© Reuters/SERGIO FLORES FILE PHOTO: 
Exterior view of SolarWinds headquarters in Austin

OAKLAND, Calif. (Reuters) - Cybersecurity providers including FireEye Inc and Microsoft Corp could not prevent a huge network breach disclosed this month by numerous U.S. agencies and companies, yet their shares are soaring for a second straight week.

The months-long penetration exposed weaknesses in security tools as well as network management programs, most notably SolarWinds Corp's Orion software widely used to oversee networks.

Recalls and scandals affecting products such as automobiles, food and toys tend to hurt shares across an industry, as investors brace for broad declines in consumer confidence and sales, according to two experts who have studied such scenarios.

But the spillover from the cybersecurity scare has been different. Wall Street is betting that governments and businesses - having invested years in moving to digital infrastructure - will only accelerate purchases of the latest IT tools.

"What's the alternative?" said Venkatesh Shankar, marketing professor at Texas A&M University.

Airbag recalls or Listeria outbreaks tend to affect shares within a narrow supply chain, from restaurants and auto dealers down to parts and ingredients suppliers, he said.

But "the magnitude of this breach is not just within the software industry," he said, noting SolarWinds' customers span countless industries.

Kartik Kalaignanam, a University of South Carolina marketing professor, said traders are expecting organizations will bolster their defenses even if it means purchasing services from companies that were hacked.

"Although one could argue each one of them has some sort of flaw in their system, there's a feeling there's going to be more spending happening, and the market will be pushed up overall," Kalaignanam said.

A BlackRock iShares fund of cybersecurity stocks surged nearly 10% last week and rose another 3.5% this week entering Thursday. FireEye rose this week to a 5-year high, Microsoft topped a 90-day peak and Palo Alto Networks, which said it blocked intrusions related to SolarWinds, jumped to an all-time record.

Mark Cash, who analyzes stocks for research firm Morningstar, said the SolarWinds breach "will certainly benefit" security companies. Once called in to repair defenses, they inevitably get a contract to stick around, Cash said.

Shankar and Kalaignanam said they expect industry shares to stay elevated for about six months to a year.

(Reporting by Paresh Dave; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)



ELIMINATE EI MAKE IT UBI
Pandemic pushed up timeline for long-sought EI review, Qualtrough says

OTTAWA — Canada's employment minister says plans to revamp the employment insurance system have been put on a faster path thanks to COVID-19
.
Provided by The Canadian Press

The pandemic has exposed shortcomings in EI, including that not every worker is covered, nor can everyone who is covered get benefits when they need them.

Mending those cracks through consultations, testing and implementation may have taken years, assuming elections or changing political priorities didn't blow it astray.

Employment Minister Carla Qualtrough instead tells The Canadian Press that COVID-19 gave the federal government a chance to test ideas such as setting one common entry requirement.

She also says the emergency benefits rolled out during the pandemic helped test coverage for self-employed and gig workers who are often left out of EI.

Qualtrough hinted discussions may start soon about what changes should become permanent, and what other additions the system may need.

"If I would have gone to the cabinet table in January and said, 'I want to overhaul EI,' it would have been a five-year process," Qualtrough said.

"All of a sudden, EI wasn't working. So now we have to fix it. And now that's my job now — to fix EI."

Qualtrough came into the role of employment minister one year ago and oversaw a labour market with a historically low unemployment rate by February. By May, the rate was at a historic high as the pandemic struck and three million jobs vanished.

As the numbers increased, the government put EI into hibernation over concerns that an unprecedented surge in unemployment would overwhelm the decades-old system.

In its place was the $500-a-week Canada Emergency Response Benefit, which by the end of its run in late September had paid out more than $81.6 billion in benefits to nearly nine million people.

It may not have been so popular had the government rolled out its wage subsidy program faster.

That's because by the time the wage subsidy launched, there was just enough of a lag that people had already chosen to go down the path of the CERB, said Qualtrough

"Then the wage subsidy had to catch up," she said. "I'm not saying that was necessarily an error, but if you ask me now looking back, I would have liked to see those measures more tightly connected."

The EI system kicked back up on Sept. 27. Since then, the government has paid out $8.83 billion in benefits to more than 2.3 million people, according to government figures posted Thursday.

The figures also show there are now more than 1.8 million people on EI.

The Liberals are facing calls from companies and employers that pay into the system to finally kickstart a long-sought review of EI. Qualtrough suggested that review could start next year after finding areas of agreement to focus it.

The experiment with the CERB should help in that regard, she said.

"The system can do these things. It's already done them," Qualtrough said. "A lot of the things that perhaps we would have tested very gingerly, we just did and so we've proven we can do them."

At the same time, she also has to keep an eye on the trio of "recovery" benefits that replaced the CERB that have collectively paid out $6.2 billion to date.

Although take-up has been lower than expected, Qualtrough said some of that may be the result of a better-than-expected job market, which has recouped four-fifths of spring losses. She also noted that schools haven't so far closed during the second wave of COVID-19 like they did in the first.

She is also closely watching a two-week federal sickness benefit to see what, if any, changes may be required to specifically help workers who have to isolate more than once, or those with underlying medical conditions who can't be easily accommodated by their employers.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 24, 2020.

Jordan Press, The Canadian Press



Melted fuel removal at Fukushima delayed by pandemic

Experts say a 30- to 40-year completion target for the decommissioning is too optimistic. 

In this Dec. 2, 2019, file photo released by Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO), shows melted fuel taken by a telescopic robot inside of the primary containment vessel of Unit 2 reactor at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant in Okuma, northeast Japan. Japan's government and the operator of a wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant said Thursday, Dec. 24, 2020 a removal of melted fuel will be postponed by about one year until late 2022 due to delayed development of a robotic arm in Britain amid the coronavirus pandemic. (Tokyo Electric Power Co. via AP, File)

Japan's government and the operator of the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant said Thursday that the removal of melted reactor fuel planned to start in 2021 will have to be postponed by about one year due to the worsening coronavirus pandemic.

The economy and industry ministry and Tokyo Electric Power Co. had planned to start removing a first batch of melted debris from the Unit 2 reactor at Fukushima Dai-ichi sometime next year, marking the 10th anniversary of the disaster triggered by the massive earthquake and tsunami on March, 11, 2011.

The start of the melted debris removal will now be delayed until late 2022, officials said.

The worsening virus situation in Britain has caused delays with a robotic arm being jointly developed in that country by Veolia Nuclear Solutions and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

Necessary testing has been delayed. And the shipment of the robotic arm, initially planned for January, is now expected around April, said Shuji Okuda, a trade ministry official in charge of the nuclear facilities development.

The overall decommissioning of the nuclear plant is still expected to take 30 to 40 years.

Removal of the 800 tons of nuclear fuel in the three reactors that melted, fell from the cores and hardened at the bottom of their primary containment vessels is by far the toughest challenge of the decommissioning process.

TEPCO has made progress in gathering information about conditions in the reactors. A small telescopic robot that went inside Unit 2 showed that small pieces of debris can come off and be lifted out. An assessment at Unit 3 was hampered by high radiation and water levels in its primary containment vessel, and a robotic survey at Unit 1 was unsuccessful due to extremely high radiation levels.

The government and TEPCO are also struggling with the massive amount of treated but still contaminated water accumulating and stored in about 1,000 tanks as the plant is expected to run out of space in less than two years. A government panel recommendation of a release of the water to the sea has faced opposition from local residents, including fishermen, and neighboring countries.

Experts say a 30- to 40-year completion target for the decommissioning is too optimistic. Some have raised doubts if removing all of the melted fuel is doable and suggest an approach like Chernobyl—contain the reactors and wait until radioactivity naturally decreases.


Explore further  Nuclear fuel removed from crippled Japan plant

© 2020 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
Japan's renewable energy sector seeks 
carbon-neutral windfall

by Sara Hussein
Japan's renewable energy industry is hoping a new carbon neutral goal will help clear longstanding obstacles to its growth

Japan needs to boost renewable energy by reforming outdated policies on land use and the national grid if it is to meet a new goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, industry players and experts say.

Since announcing the 2050 target in November, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's government has pledged to spend $20 billion on green tech and set ambitious new wind power targets.

But the world's third-largest economy has a lot of catching up to do, said Ken Isono, CEO of renewable energy company Shizen Energy.

"Japan could be a leading country in solar, 15 years ago it used to be," he told AFP.

"But I think Japan lacked vision and so it got totally left behind."

Critics have long bemoaned a lack of ambition in Japan's policy, which currently aims for 22-24 percent of the country's energy to come from renewables by 2030.

Around 17 percent already came from renewables in 2017, and a combination of growth in the sector and a pandemic-related fall in demand means Japan is on track to meet its 2030 target this year.

Japan was the sixth-biggest contributor to global greenhouse emissions in 2017, according to the International Energy Agency. It relies heavily on coal and liquefied natural gas, particularly with many of its nuclear reactors still offline after the 2011 Fukushima accident.

Isono, whose firm works in solar, wind and hydroelectric, thinks the government should set a goal of "at least 40 percent" renewable energy by 2030, which he calls realistic rather than visionary.

Freeing up land


But getting there will require concrete action, particularly on land use, he argued.

Japan is sometimes assumed to struggle with renewables because its mountainous territory is ill-suited for solar and wind installation.

But Isono said that is "an excuse", pointing to the country's comparatively abundant abandoned and underutilised farmland.

"The average age of most farmers in Japan is almost 70 years old. In five or 10 years, nobody is going to be doing agriculture... How can we create energy from that land?" he said.

Isono favours legal reforms to make it easier for municipalities to take over such land and use it for renewable energy projects, an idea backed by others in the sector and some in government.

Freeing up farmland would mostly benefit solar, which dominates Japan's renewable sector because panels are comparatively easy to install and maintain, and offer flexibility in terms of project size.

But there are also some specific factors holding back other options, including wind power, according to Mika Ohbayashi, director of the Renewable Energy Institute, a think tank in Tokyo.

Wind projects are more efficient the larger they are, but securing grid access for significant output is a challenge, because Japan's existing utilities dominate and "have restricted access to decentralised renewables such as wind power", she said.

And there are other barriers: wind projects generating over 10 megawatts require an often lengthy environmental assessment—the bar for such assessment of coal-fired plants is 150 megawatts.

'Possible but difficult'

Offshore wind has been floated as an area for potential renewable growth, with the government now planning to generate up to 45 gigawatts by 2040.

That is a massive jump from the 20,000 kilowatts currently being produced, and not everyone is convinced it is realistic.

"Unlike the EU market, there's not very many places that are suitable for wind generation," said Shinichi Suzuki, CEO of XSOL, a Japanese firm specialising in solar panel installation and operation.

"Offshore wind generation requires a lot of specialised knowledge... and while 10 years ago the generation costs of wind were cheaper than solar, now the situation is reversed, solar is much cheaper."

XSOL also believes solar is uniquely suitable for Japan as a "resilient" power source on homes and businesses that can continue supply after disasters like earthquakes.

However Japan expands renewable production, the grid system needs reform, Ohbayashi said, including ending the distribution priority for nuclear and fossil fuel power.

"Renewables are allowed grid access on the condition that they accept output curtailment without any compensation if supply exceeds demand," she points out.

And in some places, transmission line capacity is reserved for nuclear plants that are not even operating.

Suzuki is pragmatic about the challenges ahead, calling the 2050 carbon-neutral goal "possible, but difficult".

"It depends on our will. As the Japanese people, the government, the industry—we need to work hard."


Explore further 
Researchers identify which West Coast regions 
hold greatest wave energy potential

by Brendan Bane, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
This wave energy converter from wave energy technology company OceanEnergy absorbs energy from ocean waves and converts it to electricity. 
Credit: OceanEnergy/OceanEnergyusa.com

Washington and Oregon coastlines are home not only to sea stacks and vistas, they also hold the most promising areas to pull power from West Coast waves, according to a recent study published in the journal Energy and led by researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

The study, spearheaded by physical oceanographer Zhaoqing Yang, chief scientist at PNNL's Marine and Coastal Research Laboratory in Sequim, Wash., assesses wave energy as a resource and identifies the Evergreen State and Oregon as holding the greatest amount of extractable, nearshore wave energy. Offshore geological features concentrate waves into "energy hotspots," some of which Yang's group identified, that highlight regions where stakeholders may look to develop the infrastructure needed to harness the energy.

Yang and his team characterized waves by building a model that incorporates 32 years of climate data, allowing the researchers to reconstruct past waves and estimate their power output potential. Washington and Oregon came out roughly equal in terms of energy yield, while California's coastline orientation and offshore islands led to fewer hotspots. Northern California—third in output—did produce significant power, while Southern California showed the least potential among the studied regions.

Though previous studies have explored wave energy, past estimates tend to focus on either smaller areas or datasets that span only a few years. Yang's study, in addition to considering more than three decades of wave data, explores well over 1,000 miles of coastline.

"No other study has looked at this on such a large scale or in such fine resolution," said Yang, highlighting the paper's breadth and new detail. "This allows you to pinpoint very specific locations that are suitable for wave energy harvesting."

The high-resolution dataset is the first of its kind to be publicly available, hosted by the U.S. Department of Energy's Water Power Technologies Office, in an effort to support wave energy research and development.

Longer datasets lead to better estimations

Yang's model depicts coastal features and wave characteristics in greater resolution than ever before. Where past studies have resolved features that are several kilometers apart, the new approach distinguishes details every 300 meters.


"This means that the farthest you'll be from a point on the map that has meaningful data for a given project is 150 meters," said PNNL coastal engineer Gabriel García Medina, who coauthored the study. "That almost guarantees that you'll have data wherever you need it."

Watch as waves—the tallest in red and shortest in blue—arrive along the West Coast in this accelerated animation. Washington and Oregon hold the greatest amount of extractable nearshore wave energy in the region, according to a recent study. Credit: Zhaoqing Yang/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Longer datasets like these are more important than ever, according to Medina, as climate variability can muddy energy estimations. By considering longer records, researchers can weed out climatic anomalies and better identify which areas most consistently promise power.

Yang's team demonstrated that, by focusing on shorter data timelines, such as five years, which was typical in previous studies, investigators can over- or underestimate wave energy potential by as much as 15 percent.

The assessment marks a more unified approach for the wave energy community moving forward, said Medina, where researchers can commit to standards put forth by the International Electrotechnical Commission.

"When the oil and gas industry started," Medina said, "there were no unified standards. Those came along as the industry grew. With waves, we're taking a very proactive approach as an international community. We're establishing standards as early as possible, so we can share information and breakthroughs more easily. There's a lot of long-term value in doing it that way."

A timely gust

The findings come at a time when all three states within the study's scope have adopted renewable energy policies, with California and Washington committed to producing 100 percent clean energy by 2045, and Oregon targeting 50 percent clean energy by 2040.

The assessment offers renewable energy stakeholders an efficient means of identifying which areas could be best to build harvesting technology. "Without a regional data set like this," said Yang, "it would be very hard for the developer to study particular points because they wouldn't be able to establish boundaries." Now, he said, they know exactly where to look.

"Wave power is a significant, sizeable resource," said marine coastal science advisor Simon Geerlofs. "It's co-located with coastal communities, and many of these communities are growing fast and they're in need of power." Geerlofs noted the potential in wave energy, though challenges, including durability and efficiency of wave energy converters, as well as ensuring cost-competitiveness with other energy resources, still lay ahead.

PacWave, an open-ocean wave energy testing site based at Oregon State University in Corvallis, Oregon, is already making use of the data by investigating prospective development sites along Oregon's coast. Wave energy harvesting techniques like those tested at PacWave range from point absorbers, which feed generators by capturing energy from wave oscillations, to oscillating water columns, whose partially submerged structures capture air columns that move turbines, and hybrid designs.

As for next steps, Yang's team looks to conduct similar studies across the entire U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone, with assessments well underway in Alaska and Hawaii, and additional work in the offing for the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, American Samoa, and the Pacific Islands.


Explore further Mathematical tools predict if wave-energy devices stay afloat in the ocean