Tuesday, June 10, 2025

ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN

Methane leaks from dormant oil and gas wells in Canada are seven times worse than thought, McGill study suggests



A few unplugged gas wells are doing most of the damage, and targeting them would be an efficient way to reduce emissions of this potent greenhouse gas, researcher says




McGill University




Methane emissions from Canada’s non-producing oil and gas wells appear to be seven times higher than government estimates, according to a new study led by researchers at McGill University. The findings spotlight a major gap in the country’s official greenhouse gas inventory and raise urgent questions about how methane leaks are monitored, reported and managed.

“Non-producing wells are one of the most uncertain sources of methane emissions in Canada,” said Mary Kang, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering at McGill and senior author on the paper. “We measured the highest methane emission rate from a non-producing oil and gas well ever reported in Canada.”

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas. Over a 20-year period, it traps about 80 times more heat in the atmosphere than the same amount of carbon dioxide. It’s also associated with air pollution and health risks.Kang’s team directly measured methane emissions from 494 wells across five provinces using a chamber-based method and analyzed well-level data such as age, depth and plugging status. The national emissions estimate they arrived at – 230 kilotonnes per year – is sevenfold higher than the 34 kilotonnes reported in Canada’s National Inventory Report. The study was published in Environmental Science & Technology.

There are more than 425,000 inactive oil and gas wells across Canada, most of which are in Alberta and Saskatchewan. This means that the number of measured wells is very small, at only 0.1 per cent. 

“One surprising finding was just how much the drivers of emissions varied between provinces,” said Kang. “We thought geological differences within provinces would matter more, but the dominant factors appear to be at the provincial scale, likely due to variations in policy and operational practices.”

The results reveal that a small fraction of wells – especially unplugged gas wells – are responsible for the vast majority of non-producing well methane emissions. Kang says targeting these high emitters would be an efficient way to reduce emissions.

“Rather than just measuring more wells at random, we can use well attributes to identify where emissions are likely to be highest, and focus monitoring and mitigation efforts there,” she said.

The study serves as a reminder of the need to rethink how old wells are managed. 

“There’s potential to repurpose these sites in ways that generate funding for long-term monitoring and emissions reduction,” said Kang.

"Many of these sites can be transformed to produce clean energy, such as wind, solar, and geothermal," said Jade Boutot, a PhD student in Kang's lab and co-author of the study.

The researchers emphasize that improving methane data is critical to meeting Canada’s climate targets. 

“If we don’t have accurate estimates of methane emissions, we can’t design effective climate policies,” Kang added.

About the study

Sevenfold Underestimation of Methane Emissions from Non-producing Oil and Gas Wells in Canada by Louise Klotz, Liam Woolley, Bianca Lamarche, Jade Boutot, and Mary Kang was published in Environmental Science & Technology.

Military aids evacuations as Canada wildfires expand eastward


By AFP
June 9, 2025


A handout satellite picture of wildfires in York Factory First Nation in Canada's Manitoba province from May 30 - Copyright AFP RINGO CHIU
Michel COMTE

Canada’s military used aircraft to help evacuate members of a remote Indigenous group Monday as wildfires spread eastward from the Prairies region and into the country’s most populous province Ontario.

An airlift of Sandy Lake First Nation members started over the weekend as a 156,346-hectare blaze overwhelmed firefighting efforts and brushed up against the remote Indigenous community.

Wildfires in recent weeks have swept across densely wooded parts of the vast Prairies forcing more than 30,000 people in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba to flee their homes.

The latter two provinces have declared states of emergency.

The evacuation of Sandy Lake, an isolated community about 600 kilometers (370 miles) north of Thunder Bay with no road access, is the largest mobilization so far in Ontario.

Currently the fires are raging in the province’s sparsely populated northwest corner and have so far not threatened the densely inhabited south, which includes Toronto and its suburbs — home to some seven million people.

As of midday Monday, military Hercules aircraft had evacuated one third of the town’s 3,000 residents, Sandy Lake First Nation Chief Delores Kakegamic told AFP by telephone.

It has been slow-going, she said, as these bulky but nimble aircraft were only able take off half-full with passengers because of the community’s short airstrip.

– ‘Rapidly deteriorated’ conditions –

“We’re prepared to mobilize every resource needed to keep Canadians safe,” Prime Minister Mark Carney posted on X.

He announced the military deployment late Sunday after meeting with senior officials in Ottawa.

The military said in an email to AFP, “wildfire conditions in northern Ontario have rapidly deteriorated.”

“Over the last 24 hours, (the Sandy Lake) wildfire has advanced from 40 kilometres to just two kilometres from the community, placing the population at immediate risk,” it added.

On Saturday, 19 construction workers took refuge for several hours in a shipping container in the community as the skies turned orange and the air filled with smoke.

“A helicopter tried to go pick them up but the smoke was so bad they couldn’t land,” Kakegamic said.

Moments before the shipping container itself caught on fire, they made a run for it. “It was a narrow escape,” Kakegamic said. “They’ve been traumatized, for sure.”

There were 227 active wildfires across Canada as of Sunday, including about 20 in Ontario. Some 3.1 million hectares of forests have been scorched this year and hundreds of buildings destroyed in several small towns.

Images shared by wildfire agencies showed blackened and devastated landscapes left behind fast-moving walls of fire and big plumes of smoke.

The fires have downgraded air quality in parts of Canada and the United States. Smoke, which can be hazardous to health, has also reached as far away as Europe.

Climate change has increased the impact of extreme weather events in Canada, which is still recovering from the summer of 2023 when 15 million hectares of forests burned.

Most of the ongoing fires this year have been triggered by human activity — often accidental — such as poorly extinguished campfires or the passing of vehicles in extremely dry areas.

 

Fire ready?: White paper finds many US power utilities unprepared for wildfire risk



Stanford University





Evidence suggests that several of the catastrophic wildfires that struck Los Angeles earlier this year may have been sparked by electric utility infrastructure. As utilities prepare for record infrastructure demand driven by electrification, data centers, and renewables, the cost of inaction in the face of rising wildfire risk is mounting. Wildfires can cause billions of dollars in damages to communities, bankrupt utilities, and ultimately drive up rates for customers. A new report from Stanford University’s Climate and Energy Policy Program (CEPP) offers a clearer view of where risk is greatest—and where mitigation is falling short.

“This isn’t just about power lines and vegetation,” said Michael Mastrandrea, research director at CEPP and a senior research scholar at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. “It’s about protecting homes, communities, and the integrity of our energy system in a changing world.”

The Stanford researchers examined how investor-owned utilities (IOUs) across the country are confronting the escalating threat of wildfires. The key takeaway: while progress has been made across many Western states, utilities in some potentially high-risk areas remain underprepared.

Using a combination of public data and wildfire hazard modeling, the research team assigned “tiers” to utility wildfire mitigation efforts. Tier 1 utilities have implemented comprehensive plans and technical measures—like fast-trip settings that can turn power lines off more quickly when an object touches them during high-fire-risk periods—to reduce the chance of ignitions. Tier 3 utilities, on the other hand, lack even a public plan describing their implementation of wildfire mitigation or safety shutoffs.

While utilities in California, Oregon, and Utah tend to cluster in Tier 1, many in the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Upper Midwest remain at Tier 3, according to the paper. The researchers note that this uneven progress is partly due to regulatory barriers in states with less recent catastrophic wildfire history. In such places, concerns about affordability and reliability often outweigh momentum for fire safety upgrades—until disaster strikes.

The report also underscores how emerging legal trends are putting utilities on notice. Recent lawsuits tied to wildfires in Oregon and Hawaii suggest that utilities nationwide may be held accountable for not proactively cutting power or upgrading equipment when conditions demand it. The Los Angeles wildfires exposed a critical blind spot, according to the researchers: most wildfire mitigation plans focus on lower-voltage distribution lines, while higher-voltage transmission lines and deactivated infrastructure may be overlooked.

“We can’t afford to focus only on part of the problem,” said report lead author Eric Macomber, a wildfire legal fellow at CEPP and the Stanford Law School’s Environmental and Natural Resources Law and Policy Program. “We need wildfire planning that looks at the entire grid—public and private, active and inactive.”

To evaluate risk more accurately, the Stanford team used a model developed by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS). Unlike tools based solely on historical data, the USFS model incorporates climate conditions, vegetation, and topography to identify areas where severe wildfires are likely in the future. Overlaying utility service territories with USFS wildfire hazard maps allowed the team to visualize which utilities face the greatest threat.

Their analysis found that some IOUs with large portions of territory in potentially high-risk zones had made little or no progress on wildfire planning. The Stanford analysis framework also tracks whether utilities have implemented key mitigation elements, such as weather monitoring and programs to reduce harm to customers affected by planned shutoffs.

“The Forest Service maps helped us understand the wildfire hazards in these utilities’ territories, said report co-author Avery Bick, a data science fellow in the Environmental Natural Resources Law and Policy Program. “More open data on power lines would help to refine risk assessments even more.”

The white paper builds on ongoing CEPP work to assess and meet wildfire-related challenges facing U.S. utilities. A previous report reviewed wildfire risk exposure and mitigation planning for Western U.S. electric utilities as of the 2024 wildfire season. The researchers hope to continue to expand and refine their methodology.

 

Tradition meets AI as Leicester scientists help tackle Amazonian biodiversity crisis



Scientists led by University of Leicester will support traditional communities to monitor biodiversity in the Amazon




University of Leicester

Dr Ben Coles 

image: 

Dr Ben Coles from the University of Leicester School of Geography, Geology and the Environment.

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Credit: University of Leicester




Traditional Amazonian communities will be using artificial intelligence to help scientists monitor biodiversity in the world’s largest tropical rainforest.

The scientists are developing an AI-driven digital toolkit to enable traditional Amazonian communities to monitor and maintain socio-biodiversity in the Amazon region, as well as facilitate their engagement with the bioeconomy.

The University of Leicester’s School of Geography, Geology and the Environment and Institute of Environmental Futures have launched a major new research initiative aimed at tackling the growing social-biodiversity and climate challenges facing the Amazon rainforest. Social biodiversity describes the importance of people, particularly traditional communities, to the maintenance of an ecosystem.

Led by Dr Ben Coles and bringing together an international and interdisciplinary team of researchers from Brazil and the UK, the £950,000 project is supported by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and is part the UKRI-CNPq Amazon+10 programme. It seeks to reshape how conservation and sustainable development are approached in one of the world’s most vital ecosystems.

Around 70 million people live in the Amazon region, with around 40% making their living in/through the forest and the rural environment. Traditional communities typically make their livings through forest resources, rather than cutting the forest for mechanised agriculture or ranching, and tend to have extremely intimate knowledges of their territories' flora and fauna, as well as knowledges of their 'work' as ecosystems.

Carried out in nine communities within three states in the Legal Amazon: Pará, Amazonas and Maranhão, researchers will collaborate with traditional Amazonian communities with the aim of developing an Artificial Intelligence (AI) platform that inventories traditional knowledges in these territories. The objectives for the project are to train communities in the digital and AI-monitoring of biodiversity in their territories; for this digital tool to record and scientifically validate traditional practices and knowledge of biodiversity and then to relate them to globally available scientific databases. The aim is to enable these communities to maintain control over their knowledge and consequently territories. As well as working closely with traditional communities, the project will involve NGOs and policy makers to ensure that outcomes support justice, equity, and long-term environmental stewardship.

The toolkit will enable traditional communities to track and monitor biodiversity by providing their own knowledges and understandings of flora and fauna, and ecosystem dynamics. The AI system underneath the toolkit will map this onto scientific databases and fed into conservation efforts. This catalogue of knowledge will enable these communities to engage with policymakers, as well as providing those communities with information to help them engage with the market for their work on their own terms.

Dr Coles will work with Professor Nirvia Ravena at Federal University of Para, and collaborators from nine other universities and institutions in Brazil, as part of the project, entitled ‘Participatory monitoring of traditional territories: digital platform for co-production of data on socio-biodiversity in Amazonian areas’.

As the Amazon faces unprecedented threats from deforestation, climate change, and political conflict, this project offers a timely and innovative approach to promoting resilience and transformation in the region.

Dr Ben Coles from the University of Leicester School of Geography, Geology and the Environment said: “The Amazon’s a big place. This exciting project is a crucial step towards understanding the region’s complex social and ecological dynamics on the ground.

“We’re not only studying social-biodiversity but hoping to enable traditional communities in the region to maintain control over their resources and territories, which are vital to region’s ecological as well as social sustainability. It's about making science more responsive and relevant to the people who live in, and depend on, the forest, as well as saving the Amazon for the future.”

  • The project is part of UKRI-CNPq Amazon+10 initiative to environmental challenges and will run until mid-2028.

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Photograph taken in the Amazon.

Photograph taken in the Amazon.

Credit

University of Leicester

About the University of Leicester  

The University of Leicester is the Daily Mail University of the Year 2025 and shortlisted for University of the Year for both the Times Higher Education Awards 2024 and the Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2025.

The University is led by discovery and innovation – an international centre for excellence renowned for research, teaching and broadening access to higher education. It is among the Top 30 universities in the Times Higher Education (THE)’s Research Excellence Framework (REF) 2021 rankings with 89% of research assessed as world-leading or internationally excellent, with wide-ranging impacts on society, health, culture, and the environment. In 2023, the University received an overall Gold in the Teaching Excellence Framework (TEF) 2023, making it one of a small number of institutions nationally to achieve TEF Gold alongside a top 30 REF performance. The University is home to more than 20,000 students and approximately 4,000 staff.

 

Summer solstice is an optimal day for plants — but climate change could disrupt this timing




University of British Columbia
Unfolding of new boxelder (Acer negundo) leaves in spring 

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Unfolding of new boxelder (Acer negundo) leaves in spring

 

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Credit: Credit: Christophe Rouleau-Desrochers





new study led by UBC researchers suggests that the summer solstice—the longest day of the year—may serve as a key cue for plant growth and reproduction. But in a changing climate, relying on this fixed signal may no longer help plants to survive or thrive.

“Plants are known to use temperature to time things like leaf growth and flowering,” says lead author Dr. Victor Van der Meersch, a postdoctoral researcher at UBC’s faculty of forestry. “This study shows that the solstice is an optimal growth period and could also be an important trigger for reproduction.”

Scientists have long known that plants use daylength to time important seasonal events. But only recently have they begun to explore whether the solstice itself — typically around June 21 in the Northern Hemisphere — plays a specific role.

The idea has gained traction as researchers examine how climate change is affecting the natural cues plants rely on.

The study highlights that at the local level, climate change affects different areas in different ways. In warmer southern regions, heat arrives before the solstice, making plants flower early. In cooler northern areas, it’s still too cold in June for plants to start reproducing.

While plants have evolved to use both temperature and daylength for growth, temperature may now be the more reliable signal, say the researchers. “That’s because it’s directly tied to the actual climate conditions plants are experiencing,” said Van der Meersch. “But it’s still unclear how temperature and daylength interact to shape plant responses.”

“Daylength doesn’t change from year to year. But with temperatures fluctuating more, plants may be having trouble adjusting to both signals,” says co-author Dr. Elizabeth Wolkovich, a plant ecologist and associate professor at UBC.

The costs of mistimed growth

When plants mistime key events — flowering too early or too late — it can have serious effects on ecosystems. Pollinators may arrive at fields only to find flowers have already come and gone. Crops like apples or cherries could bloom too early, only to be hit by a late frost, or ripen weeks before harvesters or markets are ready. Forests may miss their best growing window, reducing how much carbon they can absorb each year.

“These timing problems can affect food security and biodiversity. We need to understand the signals plants use for key events like flowering and fruit ripening,” added Dr. Wolkovich. “By tracking these signals, we can help ecosystems and agriculture adapt to climate change.”

Researchers are calling for better models to understand how plant growth affects the climate — to help farmers and land managers protect the resilience of ecosystems.

The study was published this week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

 

Cloud observations in the southern ocean pave the way to better climate models



Researchers conduct shipboard measurements over a period of four months to better understand cloud characteristics in the Southern Ocean


Research Organization of Information and Systems

Cloud Observations at the Antarctic Coast for Better Climate Models 

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Researchers conducted cloud observations in the Southern Ocean over the course of four months to better understand the frequency and climate effects of supercooled liquid water clouds.

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Credit: Professor Jun Inoue from the National Institute of Polar Research, Japan





Climate models are essential tools for understanding our planet’s future, helping scientists predict global warming patterns, sea level rise, and extreme weather events. These sophisticated computer simulations play a key role in raising awareness about climate change and informing crucial policy decisions. Thus, they can shape our response to environmental challenges over the coming decades.

However, the accuracy of a model’s predictions hinges on how well it can simulate the complex behavior of Earth’s atmosphere. Clouds, in particular, greatly influence Earth’s temperature by controlling how much solar radiation reaches the surface and how much heat escapes back to space. In polar regions, this balance becomes even more critical, as small changes in cloud properties can dramatically affect ice sheet melting and global sea levels. Currently, most climate models struggle with a fundamental challenge: They tend to overestimate the formation of ice clouds while underestimating supercooled liquid water (SLW) clouds in polar regions. Since ice clouds reflect less solar radiation than SLW clouds, this misrepresentation leads models to overestimate surface heating and causes a significant source of uncertainty in climate projections.

To address this critical gap, a research team including Professor Jun Inoue and Assistant Professor Kazutoshi Sato from the National Institute of Polar Research, Japan, conducted an extensive four-month study of cloud behavior over the Southern Ocean in Antarctica. Their findings, published online in Scientific Reports on May 28, 2025, provide much-needed observational evidence about SLW clouds that could revolutionize how climate models simulate polar weather systems.

To conduct their investigation, the team embarked on a research cruise aboard the research vessel Shirase, traversing the Southern Ocean over four months from December 2022 to March 2023. They equipped the ship with a lidar ceilometer and a microwave radiometer—advanced instruments capable of providing detailed information about cloud height, phase, and temperature. “The ceilometer can monitor the cloud phase at the cloud base, whereas the microwave radiometer can obtain the air temperature at the cloud base,” explains Prof. Inoue. “This enables an estimation of the relationship between the cloud-base temperature and the frequency of SLW cloud occurrence.”

Through meticulous observation and analysis, the researchers revealed a striking dominance of SLW clouds in the mid-troposphere, typically existing as thin layers less than 200 meters thick. Remarkably, these clouds constituted about 95% of the observed mid-level clouds, even when cloud-base temperatures dropped below −25 °C. Since these clouds are optically thick, they reflect a lot of incoming shortwave radiation from the sun. Interestingly, the team also showed that the inaccurate portrayal of these mid-tropospheric clouds at the altitude of phase transitions in the climate models results in an overestimation of net downward radiation reaching the surface.

Taken together, these findings challenge previous assumptions and provide valuable insights for accurately modelling the polar climate. “Our observational results provide ideas for improving existing models because they have difficulty reproducing SLW clouds instead of ice clouds,” noted Prof. Inoue. Worth noting, the team’s analysis of air mass movements revealed that persistent SLW clouds are primarily maintained by local atmospheric circulation during calm periods, making them crucial for understanding regional energy balance.

The results of this work have profound implications for climate science and global warming predictions. An improved representation of SLW clouds will help us resolve longstanding discrepancies in climate models, leading to more reliable projections of ice sheet melting, sea level rise, and regional climate changes that would ultimately affect billions of people worldwide. As climate scientists continue refining these essential tools for understanding our planet’s future, this piece of Antarctic research will serve as a stepping stone towards more accurate climate predictions.
 

Funding information

This study was supported by the Science Program of the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE) as Prioritized Research Projects (AJ1005 and AJ1003), JSPS KAKENHI (grant numbers: JP23H00523 and JP24H02341), and the National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) through research projects KP-402 and KC-401.

 

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About National Institute of Polar Research, Japan
The National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) engages in comprehensive research via observation stations in Arctic and Antarctica as a member of the Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS). It provides researchers throughout Japan and other countries with infrastructure and support for polar observations and works actively to promote polar science. By working under the same frameworks as various international academic organizations, NIPR is the core Japanese representative institution operating in both poles, conducting cutting-edge research on polar ecosystems, polar climate science, geology, sustainability in polar regions, and more.
Website: https://www.nipr.ac.jp/english/index.html

About Professor Jun Inoue from the National Institute of Polar Research, Japan
Dr. Jun Inoue obtained his master’s and PhD degrees from Hokkaido University, Japan, in 1999 and 2001, respectively. He currently serves as a Professor at the National Institute of Polar Research. His research interests lie in the fields of atmospheric and hydrosphere science, particularly in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. He has published over 100 papers on these topics and has received awards from the Japan Meteorological Society on three occasions.

About the Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS)
ROIS is a parent organization of four national institutes (National Institute of Polar Research, National Institute of Informatics, the Institute of Statistical Mathematics and National Institute of Genetics) and the Joint Support-Center for Data Science Research. It is ROIS's mission to promote integrated, cutting-edge research that goes beyond the barriers of these institutions, in addition to facilitating their research activities, as members of inter-university research institutes.