Sunday, February 21, 2021

UK 

The Liberal case for a Universal Basic Income

Following the economic downturn of COVID-19, a renewed interest has emerged in the idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI). This development has been visible on the UK political scene, with 170 MPs and Lords calling for an “Emergency UBI” in the wake of the first national lockdown.

In practice, a UBI would give every citizen a guaranteed weekly government payment to supplement their main earnings. In effect, it would provide those hit hardest by the COVID recession with a baseline economic security; “a basic income floor”, as Prospect puts it.

In being an expansion of the welfare state, advocacy of a UBI tends to be more common on the ideological left. Indeed, it was the leftist Green Party who advocated such a scheme in the UK’s last General Election, in proposing that every citizen receive a minimum of £89 per week by 2025.

But should the UBIs appeal be limited to those on the left, or can it find favour with a broader demographic? It is true that the concept has received support from contemporary figures across the political spectrum, with noteworthy examples including the free market economist Milton Friedman, the left-leaning economist Thomas Piketty, and the former US President Barack Obama.

It is my belief that the introduction of a UBI is a cause which all liberals should get behind. With its potential to facilitate greater individual freedom and economic opportunity, as well as an enhanced sense of social justice, I believe it aligns fully with modern liberal values.

It has long been understood by liberals that freedom from economic deprivation is as vital a consideration as freedom from physical harm. If a person is deprived the necessities of living, they can hardly be free to pursue a productive, prosperous life. It is for this reason that liberals uphold the need for a sufficiently sized government safety net. But with recent years witnessing a continual rise in the UK poverty levels, as seen in the upsurge in food bank usage, it would appear undeniable that the country’s current safety net is deficient in its size and outcomes.

Such a predicament is set to be compounded by the economic downtown inflicted by COVID-19. According to the Office of Budgetary Responsibility, as many as 3.5 million UK residents could find themselves unemployed in 2021. Such economic wounds would no doubt be deepened by the country’s ever-rising wealth gap, with this a major issue prior to the pandemic.

Liberals must be prepared to call on the Conservative Government to undertake swift, bold action fuelled by an openness to new approaches. Simply papering over the cracks will not do; the system needs significant reform and expansion, justifying the addition of a UBI to ensure the basic living costs of every citizen can be met.

If implemented, a UBI could provide a monetary foundation for those without large incomes to pursue the future they desire. Whether it be reducing one’s working hours to spend time with family, invest in a dream business venture, or embark on further study, the extra cash from a UBI would afford every individual with the enhanced freedom to pursue previously unattainable goals. As Liberal Democrat Councillor Rhys Taylor emphasises, it could restore the liberal vision of a social security system which gives “everyone the freedom, the dignity, and the opportunity to get to where they want to be”.

Detractors may well stress the costliness of such a scheme as making it unsustainable. Whilst these concerns are understandable, recently published estimates do cost a prospective UBI at around £8bn in net terms (based on a minimum weekly amount of £51). In amounting to just 0.5% of GDP, this can hardly be deemed an untenable sum. Also, if installed on a permanent basis there would be scope for some scaling down of means-tested benefits, allowing for a reduction in current administration costs. It would however be necessary to retain some current means-tested benefits, with the UBI’s prospective weekly amount unlikely to be enough to cover the essential costs of those on the lowest incomes.

Some may also object out of concern of normalising a culture in which government handouts are an acceptable alternative to work. But I do not think this would happen. With it being an unconditional form of government assistance, a UBI creates no financial incentive to choose welfare over work. It is perhaps the only form of welfare designed principally as a supplement to an individual’s earnings as opposed to a substitute. For most recipients, the additional income would serve to enable greater saving and investment, empowering them to progress more rapidly in their personal and professional lives. It would in no way undermine the realisation of greater economic opportunity.

It is also worth highlighting the recent cases in which UBI’s (in varying forms) have been implemented. Iran, Ontario and Finland are all examples of jurisdictions which in recent years have put the theory into practice. Reporting on the Iranian experiment confirms no adverse impact on employment levels, whilst in Finland levels of economic and mental wellbeing are reported to have improved. This would appear to dispel any notion of UBI being an unproven quantity.

With its clear potential to produce a freer, fairer, more opportunity-rich society, the case is strong for UK liberals to support a UBI. If its overriding function is to remove barriers to widespread freedom and prosperity, the idea undeniably complements the liberal vision for a better society.

It is noteworthy that both candidates in the last Liberal Democrat Leadership Election expressed their support for a UBI. I am hopeful this will form a lasting blueprint for the future liberal movement.

* Sam Wade has been a member of the Liberal Democrats since 2019

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UK

The word “truth” is being hijacked by fake news conspiracy theorists who claim their dark ideas are light

There have been too many victims of Covid-19. People for whom coronavirus was the primary cause of death. Many others whose death was accelerated or whose recovery from other diseases was cancelled through catching Covid.

Truth has been a victim too. Conspiracy theorists and populists have been promoting a distorted review of reality. Uncertainty, crisis and threat have always been fertile grounds for conspiracy theories. But has never been so important to get the truth right.

A “truthpaper” is currently been pushed through doors around the country. Truth? Not in my book.

The coronavirus epidemic has been a killer. Two and a half million people have died after being infected with Covid across the world. In the UK, 120,000 people.

There has been wide spectrum of debate on how we should have dealt with the pandemic. That debate is the legitimate way that science and the political process responds to any threat or crisis.

But there has been a smaller but not insignificant challenge from the conspiracy theorists.

For months “The Light” has been pushed through letterboxes in some areas of the country. Styling itself as “A Truthpaper,” it adopts an evangelical religious air. It’s professionally produced and it’s hard to fault the editing and design or paper quality. Independently funded, it boasts a distribution of 125,000.

But the quality of its editorial content, design and production cannot for moment disguise the danger of its content.

The front page headline of the current edition screams “Covid Shots Kill and Injure Hundreds”.

If we take this one article at face value, and I don’t, then hundreds have died after being vaccinated. But when the article was written in January up to 100 million people across the world had had their first vaccination. If vaccination people have been dying in any significant numbers after vaccination it would be on every frontpage of every newspaper in this country. SAGE would be less than sage about it.

Donald Trump didn’t start fake news by a long way. But more than anyone in recent years, he elevated into an art form. Fake news Trump screamed at the media outlets. That was nothing more than a smokescreen for the fake news he was putting out himself. He created alternative truths. Polarised realities. We saw one of the consequences of polarisation with the storming of the Capitol. With the depth of commitment from activists that many of will find frightening.

The human mind has an innate ability to link this bit of information with that bit of information, even if there is no scientific basis for that connection. That, along with an ingrained distrust for “the system” motor conspiracy theories. And conspiracy theories are the life and blood of The Light.

This fake newspaper continues with headlines such as “From Science to Dogma” and “The Covadian Totalitarian Cult” and “Murder of The Innocent”. And then it reveals its roots with attacks on GM crops, 5G, smart technologies and the BBC as the “official mouthpiece for fascist nutters”.

I am not arguing that fake newspapers like this should be banned. That would be illiberal. But I am concerned that they are dangerous. In my home county of Shropshire, they will not sway the majority opinion but they can contribute to the undermining confidence in the local, national and international efforts to bring Covid-19 under control.

We have space in our society for alternative opinions and for challenges to the establishment view. But the challenges need to be rationale not untruths like those pedalled by The Truth.

* Andy Boddington is a Lib Dem councillor in Shropshire, is shortly to receive his state pension. He blogs at andybodders.co.uk. He is Friday editor of Lib Dem Voice.

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Russian farmworkers first humans to contract new form of bird flu

Seven workers at a poultry farm in southern Russia were the first humans to catch the H5N8 strain of avian influenza in humans.

Russia told the World Health Organization that the virus isn’t yet spreading between people, Anna Popova, the country’s public health chief, said Saturday, Bloomberg reported. All of the farmworkers had asymptomatic cases and recovered, she said.

The strain was first reported in November, found in 15 Russian regions among both poultry and wild birds. It was not considered dangerous to humans at first.

“It is not transmitted from person to person,” Popova said. “But only time will tell how soon future mutations will allow it to overcome this barrier.” The world has a chance to prepare for possible mutations and to respond in a timely way to develop tests and vaccines for the strain, she said.

Siberia’s Vector Institute said on Saturday it would start developing human tests and a vaccine against H5N8, RIA news agency reported.

Chickens await vaccination against bird flu at the settlement Peredovoi 62 miles from the Russia's southern city of Stavropol on March 11, 2006.
Chickens await vaccination against bird flu at the settlement Peredovoi 62 miles from the Russia’s southern city of Stavropol on March 11, 2006.
REUTERS/Eduard Korniyenko/File Photo

WHO acknowledged that it received the information from Russia. “We are in discussion with national authorities to gather more information and assess the public health impact of this event,” the organization said in an email to Reuters.

H5N8 has also been found in France, where hundreds of thousands of birds were slaughtered last month to prevent the spread. It was also behind the worst bird flu outbreak in Japan on record in late 2020, and has been found in China, the Middle East and North Africa in recent months, but so far only in poultry.

At least 800 Ethiopians killed after defending ‘Ark of the Covenant’

At least 800 people were reportedly killed in Ethiopia as worshippers and soldiers risked their lives to protect what Christians there say is the sacred Ark of the Covenant from local militia.

Ethiopian Christians claim the Ark — the wooden chest built to hold the Ten Commandments of Moses — is being kept safe in a chapel in the holy northern city of Axum in the Tigray region.

The battle between Ethiopian soldiers and rebel fighters happened in the fall, The Sunday Times reported, but it is only being reported now.

“When people heard the shooting they ran to the church to give support to the priests and others who were there protecting the ark,” Getu Mak, a local university lecturer, told The Times.

“Certainly some of them were killed for doing that.”

Little was known about the deadly siege since Tigray is cut off from the world and journalists had been blocked from entering the region.

A deacon residing in Axum told the Associated Press he helped count the bodies, gathered victims’ identification cards and assisted with burials in mass graves.

The battle between Ethiopian soldiers and rebel fighters resulted in at least 800 deaths.
The battle between Ethiopian soldiers and rebel fighters resulted in at least 800 deaths.
AP

He believes that an estimated 800 people were killed at the church and around the city.

“If you attack Axum, you attack first of all the identity of Orthodox Tigrayans but also of all Ethiopian Orthodox Christians,” Wolbert Smidt, an ethnohistorian who specializes in the region, told the AP.

With Post wires


Garland to call Capitol riot 'heinous attack' and tell Senate Judiciary Committee he'll supervise prosecution of White supremacists

By Jessica Schneider and Kelly Mena, CNN
Updated Sat February 20, 2021

VIDEO Source: CNN
Political issues hanging over Garland's confirmation hearing 02:48

(CNN)Judge Merrick Garland, President Joe Biden's nominee for attorney general, calls the January 6 attack on the US Capitol a "heinous attack" in his prepared opening statement to the Senate Judiciary Committee, which the Department of Justice released Saturday night ahead of his confirmation hearing on Monday.

"If confirmed, I will supervise the prosecution of white supremacists and others who stormed the Capitol on January 6 -- a heinous attack that sought to disrupt a cornerstone of our democracy: the peaceful transfer of power to a newly elected government," Garland says in the statement.

Attorney General nominee Merrick Garland to face challenges that include links to Biden and Trump

The attorney general nominee plans to stress that the role is meant to "serve the Rule of Law and to ensure equal justice under the law," noting that July 2020 marked the 150th anniversary of the Justice Department's founding in the aftermath of the Civil War and that its core mission was to secure the civil rights promised by the 13th, 14th and 15th Amendments.
"The mission remains urgent because we do not yet have equal justice," Garland plans to say. "Communities of color and other minorities still face discrimination in housing, education, employment, and the criminal justice system."

Barring any surprises at his hearing, he's poised to become Biden's first attorney general, bringing a longtime jurist with a steadying hand to a department that's teetering between crises. Garland has served in the Justice Department as an assistant US Attorney in Washington, DC, and if confirmed by the Senate will step away from 24 years on the bench.
He'll also explain why he is leaving a lifetime position as a federal judge.

"...(M)any of you have asked why I would agree to leave a lifetime appointment as a judge," Garland says in the statement. "I have told you that I love being a judge. I have also told you that this is an important time for me to step forward because of my deep respect for the Department of Justice and its critical role in ensuring the Rule of Law."

Though a confluence of factors drove Biden's selection of Garland last month, people familiar with the matter say it largely rested on Biden's belief that Garland can rise above politics in the post-Trump era.

"You won't work for me," Biden said when announcing Garland's nomination. "You are not the president's or the vice president's lawyer. Your loyalty is not to me. It's to the law, the Constitution."

For boosters of Garland, it was his reputation for fairness, honed over more than two decades on Washington, DC's, federal appeals court, that made him a good fit to lead the department out of the Trump era. His success in rebuilding the public's trust in the department, however, may hinge largely on his political deftness.



With Merrick Garland pick, Biden signals stark contrast with Trump on Justice Department
Former President Barack Obama had nominated Garland to the Supreme Court after a vacancy was created by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia in 2016, but his nomination was scuttled by Senate Republicans who held a majority in the chamber at the time.

When former President Donald Trump took office, Garland's nomination expired and he returned to his position as chief judge of the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit. He stepped down from the position as chief judge in February 2020, but still serves on the court. Former President Bill Clinton had appointed him to the court in 1997.

From the sprawling investigation into the January insurrection to sensitive probes of presidential allies, the caseload at the Justice Department is as controversial as ever, and Garland will be met by a workforce whose rejection of their previous boss's political maneuverings was unprecedented.

Over 200 former federal judges, US attorneys and leading Justice Department officials have signed letters of support for Garland, requesting urgency for the Senate to confirm him "as swiftly as possible."

Republicans, on the other hand, have already signaled they'll try to draw the judge out at his confirmation hearing on the hot-button federal investigations into New York's Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and the President's son, Hunter Biden, setting up the first opportunity for Garland to reveal how he'll handle his full plate of political problems.

Prior to his appointment as a US circuit judge, Garland served as principal associate deputy attorney general. He supervised the investigation of the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, which killed more than 160 people and injured several hundred more. Garland also led the investigations of the 1996 Olympics bombing in Atlanta, in which two people died and more than 100 others were injured.

Additionally, the judge served as an assistant US attorney for the District of Columbia from 1989 to 1992, and as deputy assistant attorney general in the criminal division of the Justice Department from 1993 to 1994.

This story has been updated with additional details.

CNN's Paul LeBlanc, David Shortell, Katelyn Polantz, Joan Biskupic and Christina Carrega contributed to this report.
A New Cold War - Rivalry To Grow Between China, Russia And The USA As Globalization Ends

Mike O'Sullivan
Senior Contributor FORBES

I cover the economic and financial world outside the USA, for the USA.


Activists carry placards during a protest in front of the Chinese consulate in Manila on February ... [+] AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

The upturn in the world economy and the assured arrival in power of the Biden administration will have many commentators pondering as to whether globalization is back, after a violent interregnum during the Trump years.

I believe globalization is finished. To take trade as an example, if trade bounces back it will have changed in two important ways, both of which make the world less interdependent.

Trade will change

First, trade and state led investment will be driven by the notion of ‘strategic autonomy’ – that they should be structured so as to reinforce a country’s geopolitical power as well as its prosperity. Second, advances in technology and the corporate strategy lessons from the coronavirus crisis mean that business models can be more technology driven, more decentralized and arguably less labour intensive, something that may impact many south Asian countries.

Another important element is that the one aspect of globalization that many ignore is political. Globalization happened because of a shift in political models – communism fell, and thereafter the ‘American’ model traversed the world (again especially Asia), the number of democracies rose, and human development improved manifestly across the world.

Yet, this sense of ‘one system’ is now at an end – the global financial crisis and the Trump Presidency have sapped its credibility. Moreover, globalization has not transformed the world politically in the image of the American model. Indeed, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the flourish in ‘democracies’ has halted and is reversing. Take for example the the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index which in 2020 fell to its lowest level since 2006, and with 70% of countries covered showing a deterioration in the quality of their democracy.
In this respect there are two vital cognitive errors that ‘Western’ commentators make. The first is to assume that all countries prioritise their economy over geopolitics and social needs – Russia shows that this is not the case. The second is to believe that economic progress will naturally beget a desire for democracy. China, and the relative success of its Communist Party show that this is not the case.

Hong Kong

What is now important and noticeable is that more and more events are occurring that push back and check the liberal democratic model. The most prominent of these is the quenching of Hong Kong’s ‘two systems’, and event that bookends the fall of communism. The failure of liberal democracies to support the pro-democracy movement in Belarus is another and is the dereliction of many world institutions such as the WHO (World Health Organisation).

The abject failure of Josep Borrell’s diplomatic mission to Moscow and a surge in military posturing in and around the South China Sea (for example ‘scrambles’ of Japanese fighter jets are at a record, averaging three per day) also point to a hardening of political arteries.

Against this backdrop, a new model is emerging to challenge that of liberal democracies and for the first time since Ronald Reagan bemoaned the ‘evil empire’, we have two competing ‘ways of government’. I call them the Levelling and Leviathan models, drawn from the mid 17th which was formative period for the emergence of the nation-state, elaboration of democracy and thinking on how government should work.

Levellers

The Levelling model (from the 17th century English movement who crafted the ‘Agreement of the People) is based on the popular rediscovery of liberal democracy in the light of all of the challenges our world throws at it – indebtedness, climate damage and the penetration of social media into mindsets. Most of Europe, including the UK and the Democratic Party in the USA and naturally the Biden administration are in this camp. Indeed, on Friday President Biden staked a claim to revitalise liberal democracy when he stated he would ‘make a strong and competent case that democracy is the model that can best meet the challenges of our time’.

On the other side, are the Leviathans – who following the sense of Thomas Hobbes’ 1651 book ‘Leviathan’ see the need for a ‘supreme’ actor to control a country’s fortunes and where its citizens enter into a bargain with that leader. China today is a ‘Leviathan’ – its citizens exchange liberty for prosperity and national prestige, and there are growing signs that its President covets a long, unchallenged (ask Jack Ma) period in power. Its not clear to me that Russia for instance is a ‘Leviathan’ country, given the lack of a cohesive national project and the lack of a real developmental contract between Vladimir Putin and his people.

A world defined by ‘recuperating liberal democracy’ and ‘tough managed democracy’ will have many implications. Rhetorically it will make the role of the likes of Joe Biden easier if he can frame world affairs along these lines. It may also force the debate on European values – eastern European states may be forced to give up the illusion that they can pick and choose the variety of democracy they adhere to.

Finally, the battle of the competing attractions of the ‘Leveller’ versus ‘Leviathan’ model will be played out across many emerging nations. Ethiopia is one such example, where an open economy and the beginnings of a stable polity were beginning to take hold but that has recently lurched towards a more controlling, and brutal style of government. Think also of Nigeria – where inequality is growing and where unrest could become a serious socio-political issue. Nigerians may soon ask themselves if they want to replicate China’s success or whether Britain is a model for them.

Mike O'Sullivan
I am the author of a book called The Levelling which points to what's next after globalization and puts forward constructive ideas as to how an increasingly fractured world can develop in a positive and constructive way. The book mixes economics, history, politics, finance and geopolitics. Markets are the best place to watch and test the way the world evolves. Most of my career has been spent in investment management, the last 12 years at Credit Suisse where I was the chief investment officer in the International Wealth Management Division. I started my career as an academic, at Oxford


Meteor exploded so brightly it triggered doorbell cams across Northern England

Meteor exploded so brightly it triggered doorbell cams across Northern England
Residents in northern England and Scotland were treated to a spectacular celestial display this week when a suspected bolide exploded as it struck the Earth's atmosphere.

The night skies over northern England exploded into light for a brief second courtesy of the huge flash, with residents marvelling at what it might be, anything from a military test to a crashing plane. 

Thankfully, several people received alerts of suspicious activity on their doorbell cameras, only to discover they had, in fact, managed to record the ethereal, extraterrestrial effulgence.

“I’ve seen meteors before but this one I was stunned by the colour, the length of the fireball and the length of time it was in the sky,” said one stunned resident.

Reports streamed in to the International Meteor Organization (IMO) and the UK Meteor Network from all over the northern UK about the celestial pyrotechnics display, which occurred at roughly 21:20 local time.

“Due to the velocity at which they strike the Earth’s atmosphere, fragments larger than one millimetre have the capability to produce a bright flash as they streak through the heavens above,” the IMO says, in describing these bolides.

The hundreds of people across Northumberland who witnessed the event were perfectly positioned as it turns out the area holds Dark Sky Park status, meaning it has a particularly good view of such stunning spectacles, rivalled only by places like Death Valley and Big Bend Dark Sky Parks in the US.

These areas are protected for their exceptional night-time skies so they can be used in astronomical, scientific and educational research.