Monday, September 27, 2021

 

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the biggest decrease in life expectancy since World War II


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered life expectancy losses not seen since World War II in Western Europe and exceeded those observed around the dissolution of the Eastern Bloc in central and Eastern European countries, according to research published [27 September], led by scientists at Oxford’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science.

The research team assembled an unprecedented dataset on mortality from 29 countries, spanning most of Europe, the US and Chile – countries for which official death registrations for 2020 had been published. They found that 27 of the 29 countries saw reductions in life expectancy in 2020, and at a scale which wiped out years of progress on mortality, according to the paper published today in the International Journal of Epidemiology.

Women in 15 countries and men in 10 countries were found to have a lower expectancy at birth in 2020 than in 2015, a year in which life expectancy was already negatively affected by a significant flu season.

According to the study’s co-lead author Dr José Manuel Aburto, ‘For Western European countries such as Spain, England and Wales, Italy, Belgium, among others, the last time such large magnitudes of declines in life expectancy at birth were observed in a single year was during WW-II.’

But, he says, the scale of the life expectancy losses was stark across most countries studied, ‘22 countries included in our study experienced larger losses than half a year in 2020. Females in eight countries and males in 11 countries experienced losses larger than a year. To contextualize, it took on average 5.6 years for these countries to achieve a one-year increase in life expectancy recently: progress wiped out over the course of 2020 by COVID-19.’

Across most of the 29 countries, males saw larger life expectancy declines than females. The largest declines in life expectancy were observed among males in the US, who saw a decline of 2.2 years relative to 2019 levels, followed by Lithuanian males (1.7 years).

According to co-lead author, Dr Ridhi Kashyap, ‘The large declines in life expectancy observed in the US can partly be explained by the notable increase in mortality at working ages observed in 2020. In the US, increases in mortality in the under 60 age group contributed most significantly to life expectancy declines, whereas across most of Europe increases in mortality above age 60 contributed more significantly.’

In addition to these age patterns, the team’s analysis reveals that most life expectancy reductions across different countries were attributable to official COVID-19 deaths.

Dr Kashyap adds, ‘While we know that there are several issues linked to the counting of COVID-19 deaths, such as inadequate testing or misclassification, the fact that our results highlight such a large impact that is directly attributable to COVID-19 shows how devastating a shock it has been for many countries. We urgently call for the publication and availability of more disaggregated data from a wider-range of countries, including low- and middle-income countries, to better understand the impacts of the pandemic globally.’

Life expectancy, also known as period life expectancy, refers to the average age to which a newborn live if current death rates continued for their whole life. It does not predict an actual lifespan. It provides a snapshot of current mortality conditions and allows for a comparison of the size of the mortality impacts of the pandemic between different countries and populations.

 

Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science

The Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science (LCDS) was set up in 2019 to build an internationally recognized and interdisciplinary centre of demographic science that will disrupt, realign and raise the value of demography in science and society. For more information about the Trust, please visit www.leverhulme.ac.uk and follow the Trust on Twitter @LeverhulmeTrust

 

The University of Oxford

Oxford University has been placed number one in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for the fifth year running, and at the heart of this success is our ground-breaking research and innovation. Oxford is world-famous for research excellence and home to some of the most talented people from across the globe. Our work helps the lives of millions, solving real-world problems through a huge network of partnerships and collaborations. The breadth and interdisciplinary nature of our research sparks imaginative and inventive insights and solutions.

 

Play ball! (It’s good for you)


UNIVERSITY OF MONTREAL

Boys who participate in sports in early childhood are less likely to experience later depressive and anxiety symptoms – known as emotional distress – in middle childhood, a new study led by Université de Montréal psychoeducator Marie-Josée Harbec.

Published today in the Journal of Developmental & Behavioral Pediatrics, the study also suggests that  boys who experience less emotional distress in middle childhood are also more likely to be more physically active in early adolescence.

In the study, “we wanted to clarify the long-term and reciprocal relationship in school-aged children  between participation in sports and depressive and anxiety symptoms,” said Harbec, who did the work as a doctoral student supervised by UdeM psychoeducation professor Linda Pagani.

“We also wanted to examine whether this relationship worked differently in boys and girls between the ages of 5 and 12,” said Harbec, who along with Pagani practices at CHU Ste-Justine chuldren’s hospital.

“There’s widespread evidence of a crisis these days in childhood physical inactivity, and this may ultimately have implications for later mental and physical health,” she added.

Harbec and Pagani examined the sporting and physical activity habits reported by the kids at ages 5 and 12 years, as well by their parents, and also looked at symptoms of emotional distress from ages 6 to 10 years that were reported by the kids’ teachers.

“We found that 5-year-old boys who never participated in sports were more likely between the ages of 6 and 10 to look unhappy and tired, had difficulty having fun, cried a lot, and appeared fearful or worried.” said Pagani, the study’s senior author.

“Also, boys who exhibited higher levels of depressive and anxious symptoms during middle childhood were subsequently less physically active at 12 years old. For girls, on the other hand, we did not find any significant changes.”

Collaborating with researchers at McGill University and the Childrens Hospital of Eastern Ontario Research Institute, Harbec and Pagani examined data from a Quebec cohort of kids born in 1997 and 1998, part of the the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development done by the Institut de de la statistique du Québec.

Parents of 690 boys and 748 girls they looked at had reported their past-year participation in sport at age 5 and their weekly level of physical activity at age 12; their teachers assessed emotional-distress symptoms observed in school from ages 6 to 10. The data were stratified by sex to identify any significant link between physical activity and emotional distress.

Many confounding factors were ruled out, said Harbec.

“Our goal was to eliminate any pre-existing conditions of the children or families that could throw a different light on our results, such as child temperament, parental education or family income,”  she said.

 

Girls and boys function differently

Boys who engage in sport in preschool might benefit from physical activities that help them develop  life skills such as taking initiative, engaging in teamwork and practicing self-control, and build supportive relationships with their peers and adult coaches and instructors, the researchers said.

“Conversely, boys who experience symptoms of depression and anxiety might be more socially isolated, and have a decreased level of energy and lower feelings of competence, which could in turn negatively influence engagement in physical activity,” said Pagani.

For girls, depression and anxiety risks and protective factors work differently, said Harbec. Girls are more likely than boys to seek help from and disclose emotional distress to family, friends or health providers, and psychological support from these social ties protects them better.

“Also, because more girls experience emotional distress than boys, this gender-related risk may have led to early identification and intervention for girls,” and so protect them from further damage, said Harbec.

About this study

“Physical activity as both predictor and outcome of emotional distress trajectories in middle childhood’,” by Marie-Josée Harbec et al, was published Sept. 27, 2021 in the Journal of Developmental & Behavioral Pediatrics.

FOR PROFIT MEDICINE

Patients at higher-rated dialysis centers more likely to get on kidney transplant waitlists


Study supports including kidney transplant accessibility in dialysis center ratings

Peer-Reviewed Publication

BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL

Dialysis centers, the gatekeepers of kidney transplantation waitlisting, produce more data and inspire more policies today than ever before. However, existing Dialysis Facility Compare (DFC) quality metrics for these centers have not included longitudinal metrics, such as time to transplantation waitlisting, which incentivize coordinating care across the spectrum of dialysis centers, nephrologists, hospitals, and transplant centers. A new study by a team of Brigham and Women’s Hospital researchers aimed to fill this gap by investigating potential associations between patient, facility, and waitlisting characteristics and a center’s DFC ratings. By combining data from the U.S. Renal Data System (USRDS) to DFC center ratings between 2013 and 2018, researchers found that higher-rated facilities yielded a 47 percent higher likelihood of waitlisting for patients. Results are published in JAMA Network Open.

“Historically, quality metric programs have focused on specific sites of care, so our objective was to focus on the continuum of experience for the patient,” said Thomas Tsai, MD, MPH, of the Brigham’s Center for Surgery and Public Health (CSPH) in the Department of Surgery. “We wanted to know if current quality measurements reflected the full continuum of care, and if patients receiving care at higher-rated centers were more likely to be listed for kidney transplantation.”

Patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) no longer have viable kidneys that effectively filter blood; thus, without treatment, dangerous biowaste levels persist inside the body. For these patients, there are few treatment options: dialysis, kidney transplantation or conservative kidney management. Kidney transplantation is often the best option for patients, but to receive a transplant, patients must be referred by their dialysis center to a national waitlist managed by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). ESKD diagnosis is life-threatening, which further emphasizes the importance of quality intervention after diagnosis — quality which is measured by the Medicare DFC star system. The star system accounts for nine separate health statistics, including deaths, hospitalizations, blood transfusions, and then ranks facilities to get final ratings.

To assess existing quality metrics of dialysis centers, researchers used the USRDS data and — after excluding patients that attended unrated centers or had already received transplants — 507,581 year-long patient experiences were captured from 6,661 unique facilities. The researchers used these data to then determine whether patient, facility, or kidney transplant waitlisting characteristics were associated with corresponding dialysis center ratings.

By comparing 5-star and 1-star facilities, the team found those higher-rated facilities to be associated with a 47 percent increased likelihood of waitlisting for transplantation. Additionally, the team found Black patients were less likely to be waitlisted than white patients, and they were more likely to be at 1- and 2-star facilities. Furthermore, the team found that both urban facilities and nonprofit facilities boasted higher likelihood of waitlisting, despite facilities in urban settings having higher likelihood of 1- and 2-star ratings.

The authors hope that the integration of waitlisting rates into current DFC ratings will incentivize greater referral rates and, in turn, increase overall nationwide facility quality.        

“At the end of the day, we’re struggling to empower patients to make good, informed decisions about dialysis facilities,” said lead author Joel Adler, MD, MPH, of the Brigham’s CSPH and Division of Transplant Surgery. “For patients experiencing this system and deciding based on these quality metrics, it’s crucial that we integrate variables like waitlisting rates, which can radically change patient outcomes.”

###

Conflict of Interest: Co-author Rachel Patzer, PhD, reported being cochair of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Technical Expert Panel on Practitioner Level Measurement of Effective Access to Transplantation (2021). No other disclosures were reported.

Funding: This work was supported by the American Society of Transplant Surgeons (CareDx Enhancing Organ Donation & Transplantation grant to Adler).

Paper cited: Adler, JT. et al. “Association of Public Reporting of Medicare Dialysis Facility Quality Ratings With Access to Kidney Transplant, JAMA Network Open” Journal DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.26719

THE MOVING FINGER WRITES

Finger tracing enhances learning: Evidence for 100-year-old practice used by Montessori


Tracing makes learning easier, faster, and more motivating

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY

Gladwyne Montessori School 

IMAGE: GLADWYNE MONTESSORI SCHOOL view more 

CREDIT: MONTGOMERY COUNTY PLANNING COMMISSION

Finger tracing has been used by teachers to help students learn for more than a century. In the early 1900s, education pioneer Montessori encouraged young children to trace over letters of the alphabet made from sandpaper with their index fingers, based on the intuition that a multi-sensory approach (i.e., visual, auditory, tactile, and kinesthetic) to learning would be most effective. In 1912, Montessori noticed that children, after mastering the sequence of tracing a letter with their index finger, “took great pleasure” in closing their eyes and trying to recall it.

Over 100 years later, her method has received some empirical validation. Two new University of Sydney studies show that not only is tracing an effective learning technique; if it is used in conjunction with imagination, its positive effect could be amplified.

Previous Sydney School of Education & Social Work research demonstrated a link between tracing and math performance. Now, tracing in math and science lessons has been specifically found to reduce people’s cognitive load (the demands placed on the conscious mind by a range of cognitive activities), thereby enhancing their ability to learn. It has also been found to potentially increase their learning motivation. Once students have built a foundational understanding of a topic through tracing, asking them to close their eyes and “imagine” the steps while tracing enhances learning more than additional tracing with eyes open.

“Although Australian schools are trending upwards in terms of maths and science performance, there’s still room for improvement,” said Associate Professor Paul Ginns, the academic supervisor and co-author of the papers. “Our research shows that tracing and imagination strategies can help. They are cost-free, simple, and can be easily implemented in classrooms, across a range of lesson topics and media.”

Tracing triangles

In the first study, published in Educational Psychology Review, 93 Year 4 and 5 students from a school in Shanghai, China were being taught about the properties of angles in a triangle. They were randomly assigned to the control condition, the tracing condition, or the tracing/imagination condition, and then given ‘calculate the missing angle’ examples to complete under practice and test conditions.

The control group were instructed to leave their arms by their sides. The tracing group traced the shapes, and the tracing/imagination group were instructed to trace the shape with their eyes open, then close their eyes and imagine the tracing.

Following this, all groups completed a 13-item questionnaire that measured motivation and different types of cognitive load during the learning process. A further experiment investigated whether these findings could be generalised to a new mathematics topic (mental mathematics), a different age group (Chinese tertiary students), and an alternative format (tracing out ellipses in difficult “mental mathematics” worked examples).

A mini meta-analysis combining the results of the two experiments showed that students who traced the shapes solved similar problems more quickly. Students who traced also reported lower levels of cognitive load and higher levels of intrinsic motivation during the lesson, compared to those in the control group. In some instances, tracing then imagining resulted in faster solution times for test questions than tracing alone.

Tracing the stars

Published in Educational Technology Research and Development, the second study involved adult participants. It considered how instructions to point at and trace over elements of a lesson on the lifecycle of a star on a computer screen would help them learn.

44 people were pre-tested on their knowledge of astronomy, then during the lesson they were instructed to either ‘use their hands’ to make links between text and an associated part of the diagram or to keep their hands in their laps. The first group reported lower cognitive load and higher interest and enjoyment of the lesson. Importantly, when tested on what they’d learned, students who used their hands while studying not only remembered more basic facts from the lesson but were also able to transfer that understanding to solve problems not directly covered in the lesson.

Why tracing works

“There are multiple reasons why tracing can help learning,” Associate Professor Ginns said. “It seems that humans are biologically wired so that we pay closer attention to the space near our hands. So, when using an index finger to trace visual stimuli, these elements of a lesson receive processing priority. Tracing can also assist learning because it “chunks” all the important elements of new material into one piece of information, making it easier for us to learn.”


Graphic Cigarette Warning Labels, the First Amendment, and Public Right to Accurate Public Health InformationGraphic Cigarette Warning Labels Back Under Legal Scrutiny

JAMA Health Forum. 2021;2(9):e212886. doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.2886

 Special Communication

September 24, 2021
Abstract

Importance  The 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act required the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to issue a rule requiring graphic warning labels depicting the health consequences of smoking for prominent placement on cigarette packages and advertising. The tobacco industry filed a lawsuit against the FDA claiming that the required graphic labels constituted compelled speech in violation of First Amendment speech rights, and courts ruled for the tobacco industry. Subsequently, the FDA thoroughly redesigned the graphic labels and issued a revised rule, but the tobacco industry immediately filed a similar lawsuit against the FDA again on First Amendment grounds.

Observations  This article examines the delicate balance between First Amendment speech rights vs the right of the public to receive truthful, accurate, and understandable public health information. The article argues that the newly designed warning labels should easily pass First Amendment analysis. The need for new warning labels on tobacco products and advertising is a critical public health intervention to promote greater public understanding of the negative consequences of cigarette smoking, especially among the young.

Conclusions and Relevance  The legal analysis in this article marshals arguments that the First Amendment does not prohibit the requirement of the new tobacco warning labels. Commercial speech receives First Amendment protection primarily for the benefit of the public (listeners) and not the tobacco industry (compelled speakers). The balance favors the right of the public to receive accurate information about critical health risks.

Introduction

With the passage of the Federal Cigarette Labeling and Advertising Act (FCLA, 15 USC 1333) in 1965, the US government mandated for the first time that all cigarette packages and advertising materials must include the following warning label: “Caution: Cigarette smoking may be hazardous to your health.” This requirement set off a protracted conflict between the tobacco industry and the federal government, which has continued until this day, centered on the issue of compelled commercial speech.

For 2 decades following the passage of the FCLA, the US and other countries around the world applied various iterations of health warnings on cigarette packages, but all of them were based on presentation of textual warnings on packaging and advertising materials.1 With the growing realization that textual warnings have limited effectiveness in conveying information or reducing smoking, including ineffectiveness among adolescents,2 interest grew in the creation of graphic warning labels depicting with illustrations the adverse health consequences of smoking. The first country to adopt graphic warning labels was Iceland, which began to apply them in 1985.3 As government interest in the public health value of graphic warning labels grew internationally, by 2012, 49 countries had adopted them—except the US, despite that they may decrease positive perceptions of cigarettes, increase quitting cognitions, and modify smoking behavior.4,5

Since 2009, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has had the authority to regulate tobacco products. In that year, the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (TCA),6 which granted the FDA’s regulatory authority over tobacco, was signed into law by President Barack Obama. Among the provisions in the TCA is an amendment to section 4 of the FCLA, which includes a regulation requiring that color graphic depictions of the health consequences of smoking be displayed on all cigarette packages and advertising materials.

First Amendment Protection of Commercial Speech

In 2011, the FDA issued graphic warning labels, which pictured serious health complications of cigarette smoking. The graphic labels illustrated adverse health consequences of cigarette use to more fully inform the public about the range of health complications. Before they were deployed, however, the labels were challenged in a lawsuit filed by tobacco companies (RJ Reynolds Tobacco Company v FDA).7 The companies’ claim was that the graphic labeling requirement constituted compelled speech that violated their First Amendment free speech rights.

The US Constitution protects speakers not only from government restrictions on their right to speak, but also from government actions to compel them to speak. As First Amendment scholar Robert Post has noted, in the realm of political speech (ie, public discourse as part of participatory democracy), there is “a constitutional symmetry between restrictions on public discourse and compulsions to participate in public discourse.”8(p877) Both the freedom to speak and the right not to be compelled to speak receive equal constitutional protection. This symmetry does not, however, pertain to commercial speech, defined as speech intended solely to promote a commercial transaction.9 In this circumstance, the right of commercial speakers to speak is protected, while their right not to be compelled to speak receives lesser protection.

First Amendment protection of commercial speech has evolved over the past 4 decades. Prior to Virginia State Board of Pharmacy v Virginia Citizens Consumer Council, Inc, decided in 1976, commercial speech received little or no constitutional protection. In that case,10 the US Supreme Court invalidated a Virginia statute stating that it was unprofessional conduct for a licensed pharmacist to advertise the prices of prescription drugs, on the basis of the First and Fourteenth Amendments. This was the first case in which the Supreme Court ruled that commercial speech was not excluded from First Amendment protection.

In 1980, in Central Hudson Gas & Electric Corporation v Public Service Commission, the US Supreme Court first established a new standard of review defining when commercial speech may be regulated.11 Justice Lewis Powell set out the 4-pronged Central Hudson test for commercial speech regulation:

At the outset, we must determine whether the expression is protected by the First Amendment. For commercial speech to come within that provision, it at least must concern lawful activity and not be misleading. Next, we ask whether the asserted governmental interest is substantial. If both inquiries yield positive answers, we must determine whether the regulation directly advances the governmental interest asserted, and whether it is not more extensive than necessary to serve that interest.11

On the basis of the text of the opinion in Central Hudson, the test is generally considered to establish an intermediate level of scrutiny for laws or regulations that may affect commercial speech.12 The principal rationale for allowing constitutional protection of commercial speech is that “the constitutional value of commercial speech lies in the circulation of information.”8(p877)

First Amendment Protection of Off-label Promotion

The Central Hudson test was also used in a recent legal case involving off-label promotion of a prescription drug.13 In Amarin Pharma Inc v FDA (119 F Supp 3d 196 [SDNY 2015]), the court ruled that Amarin’s off-label promotion of its omega-3 fatty acid formulation, Vascepa, received First Amendment protection as commercial speech, as long as the promotional materials were truthful and nonmisleading.14 In reaching this ruling, the court applied the Central Hudson test, concluding that the FDA’s claim of misbranding did not survive application of the test. The court also referred to US v Caronia, an earlier case in which the FDA brought criminal charges against a drug representative for off-label promotional activities.15 Here too, the court applied the Central Hudson test in concluding that off-label promotion received First Amendment protection as commercial speech. Taken together, these 2 legal cases greatly strengthened protection of commercial speech by the First Amendment.

Compelled Commercial Speech

For compelled commercial speech, such as mandated disclosures about marketed products, a different standard of review has been established. In Zauderer v Office of Disciplinary Counsel, a case that involved an attorney who was advertising his services, the Office of Disciplinary Council in Ohio brought a complaint against him for inconsistencies of his advertising with state law.16 The outcome of the complaint was that the Office of Disciplinary Council required disclosure of information that was not contained in the attorney’s original advertising materials. The Supreme Court rejected the use of the Central Hudson test as the standard of review for compelled commercial speech. Justice Byron White wrote for the Court:

Because the extension of First Amendment protection to commercial speech is justified principally by the value to consumers of the information such speech provides, see Virginia Pharmacy Board v Virginia Citizens Consumer Council, Inc, 425 US 748 (1976), appellant’s constitutionally protected interest in not providing any particular factual information in his advertising is minimal.16

Justice White added:

We do not suggest that disclosure requirements do not implicate the advertiser’s First Amendment rights at all. We recognize that unjustified or unduly burdensome disclosure requirements might offend the First Amendment by chilling protected commercial speech. But we hold that an advertiser’s rights are adequately protected as long as disclosure requirements are reasonably related to the State’s interest in preventing deception of consumers.16

Thus, in Zauderer, the standard of review for compelled disclosure was determined by the Court to be “reasonably related to the State’s interest in preventing deception of consumers.”16 This standard of review is, arguably, comparable to rational basis review, and the Central Hudson test was not invoked. Although some commentators have claimed that the Zauderer standard of review applies only to situations in which the State has an interest in preventing “deception of consumers,” Post8 has unambiguously refuted this claim. He noted that a mandated disclosure is constitutional as long as it is “purely factual and noncontroversial” and “reasonably related” to an appropriate State interest.8

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JAMA Health Forum – Health Policy, Health Care Reform, Health Affairs | JAMA Health Forum | JAMA Network


Estimated Prevalence of Smoking and Smoking-Attributable Mortality Associated With Graphic Health Warnings on Cigarette Packages in the US From 2022 to 2100

JAMA Health Forum. 2021;2(9):e212852. doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.2852

 Original Investigation

September 24, 2021
Key Points

Question  What are the estimated population health outcomes associated with implementation of graphic health warnings on cigarette packages in 2022 and with delayed implementation of the warnings since 2012, as originally planned, in the US?

Findings  In this decision analytical model using simulation modeling of smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality in the US from 2012 to 2100, graphic health warnings, if implemented from 2022 to 2100, would be associated with 539 000 smoking-attributable deaths averted and 7.9 million life-years gained, and if implemented in 2012, with 718 000 deaths averted and 11.2 million life-years gained through 2100.

Meaning  These findings suggest that graphic health warnings on cigarette packages may be associated with important public health benefits, and industry litigation and procedural delays to implementation may have been harmful for public health.

Abstract

Importance  Starting in 2022, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) plans to require all cigarette packages in the US to display graphic health warnings depicting health harms associated with smoking. The FDA originally planned to implement such warnings in 2012, but tobacco industry litigation delayed the effort.

Objective  To assess the estimated population health outcomes associated with a policy requiring graphic health warnings on cigarette packages in the US and with a 10-year delay in implementation.

Design, Setting, and Participants  This decision analytical model used simulation modeling of smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality in the US from 2012 to 2100, using the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network smoking population model. The study was conducted from October 2020 to July 2021.

Main Outcomes and Measures  The primary outcomes were annual adult smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable deaths averted, and life-years gained vs the baseline scenario. A baseline scenario assuming no graphic health warnings was compared with expected outcomes of implementing graphic health warnings in 2022 vs 2012. Policy effects were considered under varying assumptions of the association of the policy with smoking initiation and cessation, ranging from most conservative to most optimistic. A maximum smoking reduction scenario in which all smoking would stop by the end of 2022 was evaluated.

Results  In the baseline scenario, an estimated 13.2 million smoking-attributable deaths would have occurred from 2012 to 2100. Under a maximum smoking-reduction scenario, 5.5 million of these deaths would be averted. Implementation of graphic health warnings from 2022 to 2100 would be associated with 539 000 (range, 275 000-794 000) smoking-attributable deaths averted and 7.9 million (range, 4.0-11.6 million) life-years gained, representing less than 10% of the 5.5 million estimated smoking-attributable deaths averted and 81.8 million life-years gained in the maximum smoking-reduction scenario. Implementation from 2012 to 2100 would be associated with 33.2% (range, 32.9%-33.5%) more deaths averted (718 000; range, 365 000 to 1.1 million) and 42.7% (range, 42.3%-43.1%) more life-years gained (11.2 million; range, 5.7-16.6 million) compared with implementation in 2022.

Conclusions and Relevance  This decision analytical model estimated that FDA cigarette graphic health warnings, if implemented in 2022, would be associated with public health benefits. The model also estimated that more smoking-attributable deaths would have been averted if the policy had been implemented in 2012. Industry litigation and delays to implementing tobacco regulations may have been harmful for public health.

Introduction

Cigarette health warnings in the US have remained unchanged for the past 35 years, but starting in 2022, pending legal challenges, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will require cigarette manufacturers to display graphic health warnings covering 50% of the front and back of cigarette packages. These warnings will also be required in cigarette advertisements. Cigarette health warnings will feature 1 of 13 graphic images that depict some of the negative health consequences of smoking and brief warning statements (eg, “Smoking causes COPD, a lung disease that can be fatal”).1 The FDA originally planned to implement graphic health warnings in 2012, but tobacco industry litigation and resulting court decisions struck down the initial warnings, delaying implementation.1 Public health organizations and physicians filed a lawsuit against the FDA for these delays, and a court-ordered deadline forced the FDA to finalize new graphic health warnings nearly a decade later.2 The tobacco industry has also issued repeated legal challenges to the revised warning designs, and the implementation date is contingent on further court rulings.

Previous estimates of the potential population health benefits of graphic health warnings in the US were based on smoking prevalence trends through 2016.3 Since then, the prevalence of smoking—especially among youths and young adults—has decreased more than expected.4,5 Recent shifts in smoking trends may affect the outcomes associated with new regulations, including graphic health warnings. Past estimates also have not separately evaluated the outcomes for specific birth cohorts. This study used a simulation model to estimate smoking prevalence and mortality outcomes associated with graphic health warnings in the US under the planned policy for 2022 and compared these with estimated outcomes if the policy had been implemented in 2012.

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JAMA Health Forum – Health Policy, Health Care Reform, Health Affairs | JAMA Health Forum | JAMA Network