Angola caught in tug-of-war between China, US

Chrispin Mwakideu

DW

October 11, 2024

Rich oil and gas reserves, along with a strategic position for natural resource extraction from Africa's interior, make Angola a focal point for both China and the US.

US President Joe Biden was scheduled to visit Angola this week, but the trip was postponed at the last minute due to the looming threat from Hurricane Milton in Florida.

While a new date for Biden's visit remains uncertain, his tentatively planned trip to the oil-rich country — which would be his first visit to Africa as US president — underscores the growing importance of Angola for the United States.

"From a more historical perspective, the US has always been present in Angola, even though it seems as if it has been indirectly within the oil sector," said Edmilson Angelo, a researcher and specialist in African studies focusing on Angola.

Biden (right), seen here meeting with Angolan leader Joao Lourenco in 2023, postponed his trip to Germany and Angola to oversee storm preparation and responseImage: Yuri Gripas/ABACAPRESS/picture alliance

Angelo told DW that Angola's leadership has been trying to establish closer ties with Washington.

"President [Joao] Lourenco was received by President Biden at the White House in November 2023," said Angelo. "It's just a continuation of something that has already been established between Angola and the US.

Is US seeking to limit China's influence in Angola?

Some observers view the warming of US-Angola relations as a larger plan by Washington to counter China's influence in Africa.

As part of the G7, the US wants to boost infrastructure investments in Africa through programs like the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGI), which officially unveiled its first strategic economic project in Africa, known as the Lobito Corridor, earlier this year.

"Angola has been trying to redefine its global image from one of corruption, and is trying to attract foreign investment," said Angelo, adding that in terms of foreign policy, the US and Angola see each other as strategic partners.
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Earlier this year, President Xi Jingping (right) welcomed Angola's Lourenco to ChinaImage: Li Xueren/Xinhua/Imago

Lobito Corridor vs. China's Belt and Road Initiative

The Lobito Corridor links the port of Lobito in Angola to landlocked mineral-rich countries like Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which have major deposits of cobalt and copper — essential for producing electronic devices, smartphones and laptops.

Beijing has massively invested in mining activities in both Zambia and Congo.

Simultaneously, Angola is key to China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — often dubbed the New Silk Road — a massive infrastructure plan that aims to smooth trade links with dozens of countries and strengthen China's economic influence.

"The Americans don't want to give up the region's valuable to the Chinese. But the question is if they can even match the Chinese, who have invested in the region for decades and have a massive advantage," Claudio Silva, a political analyst on Angola, told DW.

Edmilson Angelo also believes investment in the Lobito Corridor will bring tangible benefits to Angolans.

"It's not just investment for infrastructure, it's also coming with investment for social assistance and the environment," he said.

Already, there are two significant solar power plants in Angola's Benguela province designed to produce renewable energy.

Crude oil in exchange for infrastructure development

China's significant investments in Angola, particularly in its oil industry, emphasize the importance of Angola in the BRI project. Angola is one of China's top crude oil suppliers.

In exchange for oil, China has provided Angola with substantial loans for infrastructure development that have helped speed up the country's economic recovery following three decades of civil war that ended in 2002.

Beijing's loans to African nations last year were their highest in five years, according to the Chinese Loans to Africa Database, which is managed by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. Top borrowers were Angola, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya.

Earlier this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping hailed Beijing's ties with the African continent, saying they were at their "best period in history." He made the comments at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation — the biggest summit Beijing has hosted in years.

Xi pledged over $50 billion (€45.12 billion) in financing for Africa over the next three years and promised to help create 1 million jobs on the African continent.

China is reportedly aiming to establish a naval base in Angola, which would be China's second military installation in Africa after Djibouti, on the Gulf of Aden in eastern Africa.

Such a critical military asset on the Atlantic coast would significantly increase Beijing's capability to project force and defend its trade routes.

Eddy Micah Jr. contributed to this article

Edited by: Keith Walker

N. Macedonia: Europe's most endangered butterfly sold online

Florian Schmitz

October 10, 2024

Although the Macedonian Grayling is a critically endangered species of butterfly, it is legally available for sale online. The threat not only to this butterfly but to the ecosystem in North Macedonia is growing.



https://p.dw.com/p/4ldtC

The Macedonian Grayling is a "critically endangered" species of butterfly found only in North Macedonia

Image: Velijan Jagev

The Macedonian Grayling is one of Europe's most endangered butterflies. It can only be found in one place in the entire world: the hills around the village of Pletvar in North Macedonia.

Its habitat measures no more than about 1.5 sq. kilometers (about half a sq. mile) and consists mainly of rocks and certain types of grass on which the Grayling feeds while a caterpillar.

The Macedonian Grayling is a pollinator, which means that it carries pollen from one plant to another. By doing so, it ensures the survival and propagation of a number of flowers that provide nectar not only for the Macedonian Grayling, but for other insects, too.

Entomologist Vladimir Krpac worries that the Macedonian Grayling might become extinctImage: DOMA

Each of these insects is a crucial part of a complex and fragile ecosystem, and their survival depends on the functioning of the system as a whole. The greatest threat to this ecosystem is human activity.
Insufficient protection

For example, five out of seven privately run marble quarries in the region are located directly within the Grayling's habitat, further reducing its already small size and making it harder for the butterfly to survive.

"I am worried, because human activity in this area — right where it lives — is increasing every day," says entomologist Vladimir Krpac, who is an expert on the Macedonian Grayling. "It would be no surprise, if nothing significant is done, to lose this species that only lives in North Macedonia."

According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), which has declared the butterfly "critically endangered," declines in distribution or population size of between 6% and 30% have been recorded. Despite these alarming figures, no special measures are being taken to protect the butterfly.

Prof. Andreas Segerer says that collecting rare butterflies for the sake of owning something rare can harm that butterfly's population

Image: Yellow Sunshine

That being said, the Macedonian Grayling has been protected by Macedonian law since 2011. As a result, special permits are required to collect it. These permits are only available to scientists.

But that doesn't stop poachers. Due to the lack of protective measures and because the law is not properly enforced, collecting this critically endangered butterfly is child's play: Poachers simply have to stroll through the Pletvar hills and gather the Grayling. The specimens they collect are then sold to collectors online.
Just a few clicks away

It's not hard to find samples of the Macedonian Grayling online. For less than €30 (just under $33), collectors can purchase an illegally poached specimen without fear of any legal consequences.

"Banning hunting won't solve anything," a seller, who prefers to remain anonymous, told DW. "Amateur collectors will not be affected. This has been going on for decades, and there are still plenty of butterflies here. It's like a fruit tree. Every year you harvest all the fruits, and next year there will be more."

The Macedonian Grayling's habitat extends over an area measuring just 1.5 sq. kilometers

Image: Velijan Jagev

Prof. Andreas Segerer, entomologist at the Zoologische Staatssammlung in Munich, Germany, confirms that poaching is not necessarily a problem when it comes to insects. Unlike amphibians or mammals, insects reproduce in their millions to secure their survival.

Even though entomologists like Segerer need dead specimens for their scientific work, he disapproves of collecting butterflies for anything but scientific purposes.

"Some collectors are motivated by the desire to possess a rare object," he says. "I do not think that is a good motive for collecting, and in individual cases — such as perhaps with this species, which is still very rare — this can harm its population."

Legal loopholes

The reason why the Macedonian Grayling can be legally purchased within the European Union has to do with the way protection works internationally.

While poaching, selling and exporting the butterfly is illegal in North Macedonia, distribution within the European Union is in fact legal.

The EU bases the legality of trade in animals and plants on CITES, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora. The treaty was signed in 1973 in Washington D.C. and contains lists of species that are internationally recognized as endangered.

Audrey Chambaudet feels that a revision of the EU's Environmental Crime Directive would help combat illegal wildlife tradeImage: EMG

Any trade in animals or plants on this list is illegal in the EU and enforced by the Wildlife Directive. However, the Macedonian Grayling is not yet on this list. Although it has a good chance of becoming so in the future, a number of obstacles still have to be overcome before that happens.

Although the Macedonian Grayling is on the IUCN red list, which is a necessary requirement to be internationally protected by CITES, CITES has not yet made a final decision on the case of this endangered butterfly.
A blind spot for insects?

Despite the fact that pollinating insects are crucial for the food supply of most living creatures on the planet, they are not on the radar of many environmentalists.

"I think there is a blind spot for insects at the moment, probably because they are not very charismatic," says Audrey Chambaudet, who deals with questions of wildlife trade at the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) in Brussels.

Although Chambaudet considers the current legal framework for wildlife trade sufficient, she does feel it needs to be updated.

Ilaria Di Silvestre feels that trade in a species should automatically be illegal if that species is protected in its country of originImage: EMG

"I think from a legislative perspective, the biggest improvement we need is a revision of the [EU's] Environmental Crime Directive," she says. Chambaudet hopes that by strengthening the system, prosecution of illegal wildlife trade can be made more efficient.
A change in European legislation would help

Ilaria Di Silvestre of the International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW) agrees that the Environmental Crime Directive needs to be strengthened. But instead of regulating the import of animals on the basis of CITES alone, she would prefer to see a system that is aligned with the US's Lacey Act.

"This is legislation that makes it a criminal offence to trade in species that are protected in the country of origin," she says. In the case of the Macedonian Grayling, that would mean that trade in this butterfly would automatically be illegal in the EU, without the need for meeting any further criteria.

All stakeholders agree that the loss of biodiversity has the potential to cause even greater damage than climate change. The loss of species within ecosystems — even if it is just the loss of something as apparently tiny as an insect — can have a major impact on the ecosystem as a whole, which in turn can have serious implications for all life on Earth — including humans.

Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan

This report was funded by journalismfund.eu. The investigation was a collaboration between DW and the Institute of Communication Studies in Skopje. A film was also produced as part of this project

SpaceX successfully catches returning Starship booster with 'Mechazilla' arms

SpaceX's Starship test flight this Sunday achieved a world first: using the launch tower's "chopstick" arms – referred to as "Mechazilla" by SpaceX founder Elon Musk – to catch the returning first-stage booster after a test flight. This groundbreaking maneuver is a key milestone in SpaceX's drive toward rapid rocket reusability.


Issued on: 13/10/2024 - 

SpaceX's mega rocket Starship lifts off from Starbase for a test flight Sunday, October 13, 2024, Boca Chica, Texas. © Eric Gay, A

SpaceX successfully “caught” the first-stage booster of its Starship megarocket Sunday as it returned to the launch pad after a test flight, a world first in the company’s quest for rapid reusability.


The “super heavy booster” had blasted off attached to the Starship rocket minutes earlier, then made a picture-perfect controlled return to the same pad in Texas, where a pair of huge mechanical “chopsticks” reached out from the launch tower to bring the slowly descending booster to a halt, according to a livestream from Elon Musk’s SpaceX company.

“Folks, this is a day for the engineering history books,” a SpaceX spokesperson said in a voiceover on the company’s livestream, after the booster was safely in the tower’s grasp and company staffers had erupted in cheers.

“The tower has caught the rocket!!” SpaceX founder Musk posted on X.

Liftoff occurred at 7:25 am (1225 GMT) in clear weather. While the booster returned to the launchpad, the upper stage of Starship was due to splash down in the Indian Ocean within the hour.

The SpaceX Starship launches on its fourth flight test from Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas, on June 6, 2024. © Chandan Khanna, AFP/File

During its last flight in June, SpaceX achieved its first successful splashdown with Starship, a prototype spaceship that Musk hopes will one day carry humans to Mars.

NASA is also keenly awaiting a modified version of Starship to act as a lander vehicle for crewed flights to the Moon under the Artemis program later this decade.

SpaceX said its engineers have “spent years preparing and months testing for the booster catch attempt, with technicians pouring tens of thousands of hours into building the infrastructure to maximize our chances for success.”

Teams were monitoring to ensure “thousands” of criteria were met both on the vehicle and at the tower before any attempt to return the Super Heavy booster.

Had the conditions not been satisfied, the booster would have been redirected for a splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico, as in previous tests.

Instead, having been given the green light, the returning booster decelerated from supersonic speeds and the powerful “chopstick arms” embraced it.
‘Fail fast, learn fast’

The large mechanical arms, called “Mechazilla” by Musk, have generated considerable excitement among space enthusiasts.

SpaceX's Starship stands 397 feet (121 meters) tall with both stages combined -- about 90 feet taller than the Statue of Liberty. © Sergio Flores, AFP

Starship stands 397 feet (121 meters) tall with both stages combined—about 90 feet taller than the Statue of Liberty.

Its Super Heavy booster, which is 233 feet tall, produces 16.7 million pounds (74.3 Meganewtons) of thrust, about twice as powerful as the Saturn V rockets used during the Apollo missions.

SpaceX’s “fail fast, learn fast” strategy of rapid iterative testing, even when its rockets blow up spectacularly, has ultimately accelerated development and contributed to the company’s success.

Founded only in 2002, it quickly leapfrogged aerospace industry giants and is now the world leader in orbital launches, besides providing the only US spaceship currently certified to carry astronauts.

It has also created the world’s biggest internet satellite constellation—invaluable in disaster and war zones.

But its founding vision of making humanity a multiplanetary species is increasingly at risk of being overshadowed by Musk’s embrace of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his alignment with right-wing politics.

In recent weeks, the company has openly sparred with the Federal Aviation Administration over launch licensing and alleged violations, with Musk accusing the agency of overreach and calling for its chief, Michael Whitaker, to resign.

“He’s trying to position himself for minimal regulatory interference with SpaceX once Donald Trump becomes president,” said Mark Hass, a marketing expert and professor at Arizona State University. “But it’s a calculated gamble if things go the other way.”

(AFP)

Ubisoft fears assassin’s hit over falling sales


By AFP
October 13, 2024

The French gaming company had to delay the latest version of 'Assassin's Creed' - Copyright AFP/File BERTRAND GUAY
Kilian FICHOU

Ubisoft’s battle to maintain its share price has become almost as epic as its “Assassin’s Creed” franchise as the video game giant confronts stuttering sales, buyout rumours, and now a strike that starts Tuesday.

The creator of the historical action game and “Just Dance” was booming as recently as 2020, rivalling its US and Japanese competitors.

But its share price is at a 10-year low following disappointing sales of recent games such as “Skull and Bones” and “Star Wars Outlaws”, as well as the latest version of “Prince of Persia”.

It says that Assassin’s Creed” has now sold more than 200 million copies, but the scheduled release of the next version has been delayed for three months until February.



– ‘old fashioned’ –



Ubisoft’s “open world” games, where players roam a virtual universe, was the dominant model in the 2010s, but is now “beginning to look a bit old fashioned,” said Oscar Lemaire, who founded the Ludostrie website that reviews games.

Lemaire said that Ubisoft cannot afford a new “failure” with the next “Assassin’s Creed”.

Since the success of online games such as “Fortnite”, made by Epic Games, which generates massive revenue by constantly selling updates and new content, all the big publishers are trying to copy the new “service game” model.

Ubisoft tried in May with the release of “XDefiant” but sales did not meet expectations, said Ubisoft founder Yves Guillemot.

“They’ve really been left behind by the rest of the gaming industry by not being able to really utilize this shift towards live services and post-purchase monetization,” said Martin Szumski, a financial analysts at Morningstar financial services.

– labour issues –

With close to 45 studios in France, Canada, Italy, China and other countries, and about 19,000 employees, Ubisoft remains a key player.

But, hit by its own problems and the overall crisis affecting the video game business, in January 2023 it announced a cost reduction plan that involved cutting 1,700 jobs over 18 months.

In France, where Ubisoft employs 4,000 people, discontent is growing over working conditions and salaries.

Several unions called a three-day strike starting Tuesday to protest a decision to impose at least three days a week of working in the office.

– Towards a buyout? –



On October 4, Bloomberg reported that Chinese tech giant Tencent and the Guillemot family, Ubisoft’s largest shareholder, were working on a buyout that would take the company off the stock market.

Ubisoft would only confirm that it “regularly examines all its strategic options”. Tencent holds about 10 percent of the company and the Guillemot family about 14 percent.

“Tencent is very strong in China, especially in mobile game apps and ‘free-to-play’ games,” said Lemaire. A buyout would give Tencent a toehold in Western markets and the big-budget games that are Ubisoft’s specialty.

It would also allow Ubisoft’s management “to let their strategy play out without the market constantly looking over their shoulder,” said Michael Hodel, an analyst at Morningstar.

Age and the likelihood of home ownership: Survey reveals global variations


ByDr. Tim Sandle
DIGOTAL JPRNAL
October 12, 2024

House-related home-building works. — image by © Tim Sandle.

Are you a homeowner? If not, your chances of doing so will probably relate to your age and where in the world you reside, according to new data.

For those electing to purchase property the ability to do so in terms of costs and availability vary worldwide. The age at which a person can enter the property market also varies between countries.

To explore these themes, a new study conducted by Deluxe Holiday Homes analysed 30 countries to identify the ones with the youngest homeowners. The final ranking is made based on the average age of first-time homebuyers and the study adds average net salary, house price per square meter and homeownership rates to give a wider context. All data was collected from open sources such as reports by Numbeo and housing governmental censuses.

The new study identified Indonesia as the country with the youngest homeowners, where the average age of a first-time buyer is 26. In contrast to this affordability, Austria has the highest average prices for city centre homes at $6,796 per square meter.

Other data of interest is with disposable income. On this measure Norway stands out as a country with the highest net salary at $3,381.

The data summary shows:
 

Country	Average age of a first-time buyer	Average net salary	Average house price per sq m city center	Average house price per sq m outside city center	Average house price per sq m	Homeownership rate
Indonesia	26	316.30$	1,438.68$	760.22$	1,099.45$	84
Italy	27	1,720.39$	4,241.08$	2,639.47$	3,440.28$	73.7
France	27.5	2,525.56$	6,594.61$	4,633.43$	5,614.02$	64.7
Norway	28	3,381.04$	6,297.65$	4,358.43$	5,328.04$	80.3
Vietnam	28.5	440.05$	2,601.61$	1,430.95$	2,016.28$	88.1
Finland	28.8	2,799.21$	5,699.85$	3,679.05$	4,689.45$	69.5
Malaysia	29.5	879.93$	1,852.01$	1,035.85$	1,443.93$	76.9
India	30	642.53$	1,828.15$	1,000.37$	1,414.26$	86.6
Thailand	30	538.58$	3,735.47$	1,991.38$	2,863.43$	80
Belgium	30	2,594.93$	3,968.87$	3,140.26$	3,554.57$	72.5
Austria	31	2,615.49$	6,796.98$	4,944.04$	5,870.51$	51.4
United Arab Emirates	32	3,475.38$	3,824.30$	2,608.63$	3,216.47$	28

Read more: https://www.digitaljournal.com/life/age-and-the-likelihood-of-home-ownership-survey-reveals-global-variations/article#ixzz8oXs2rISz












As well as having young homeowners (by average) Indonesia has the smallest average salary and it also has the cheapest housing prices, giving young people an opportunity to buy a home. The average price per square meter in Indonesia is $1,099.

Italy takes the second place in the ranking of the countries with the youngest homeowners, with people buying houses for the first time at 27. The average home price here is three times higher than in Indonesia at $3,440 per square meter but the housing market is larger.

France follows closely in third place as the country where people become first-time homeowners at 27.5 years on average. Prices for French houses are among the highest in the ranking and the cost per square meter outside city center is higher than for the city center houses in Italy, $4,633 and $4,241 respectively.

Norway ranks fourth with people getting their first home at 28 on average. The prices per square meter are comparable with France but most people already own a home in Norway with 80.3 percent.

Vietnam is fifth in the ranking of the countries with the youngest homeowners, where the average age of the first-time buyers is 28.5 years. Vietnam has the highest homeownership rate in the list, with 88.1 percent of the population owning a home. The average cost of the house is much cheaper than in the European countries with $2,016 per square meter.

Trump's disastrous business legacy: How he destroyed every venture he touched

Robert Reich
October 13, 2024 

Trump’s entire candidacy is based on a lie.

TRUMP: I’m really a good businessman. I’m so good at business.

Not true. Trump is a business failure. Almost every business he’s touched, he’s driven into the ground


MARCO RUBIO: You ever heard of Trump Steaks?

TRUMP: Trump Steaks are the greatest steaks, and I mean that in every sense of the word!

RUBIO: You ever heard of Trump Vodka?


TRUMP: It’s a smooth vodka. It’s a great-tasting vodka.

RUBIO: All of these companies that he’s ruined!

It’s true! Trump had a failed board game …


TRUMP: My new game is Trump the Game.

… a failed bicycle race called the “Tour de Trump” …

TRUMP: I think this is an event that can be tremendous in the future. And it can really rival the Tour de France.


… a failed football team.

TRUMP: It’s gonna stay strong. It’s gonna stay strong for a long time.

Trump decided it was a good idea to start a mortgage company in 2006.


TRUMP: It’s a great time to start a mortgage company.

That failed in less than two years. Let’s see, what else was there?

ELIZABETH WARREN: Trump Travel, Trump Ice …


JOHN OLIVER: Trump Magazine, which folded, Trump World Magazine, which also folded…

MITT ROMNEY: Whatever happened to Trump Airlines?

Oh! That was a good one! One of his planes had a crash landing within the first two months, which he insisted was the “most beautiful” landing you’ve ever seen. The business failed within three years.

Trump has even managed to bankrupt multiple casinos. How do you lose money running a casino, when the house always wins?

There’s an old joke that the easiest way to make a small fortune is to start with a large one. And that’s exactly what Trump did.

Multiple analyses show that if Trump had simply invested his multimillion-dollar inheritance in an index fund and not touched it, he’d be a lot richer than he is now. Think about that. His entire life’s work has been less successful than if he’d done nothing.

And when he was president, Trump ran the country like he ran his failed businesses. He added $8.4 trillion to the national debt — largely through his tax cuts for the rich and big corporations.

Trump has managed to survive every one of his business failures by leaving other people on the hook — leaving workers unpaid and shafting his investors.

The whole idea that Trump is good at business was a carefully crafted illusion — concocted for a reality TV show. And as with a lot of reality TV shows, we’ve come to learn it was all show, and no reality.

The only business Trump has been successful at is conning people. Now he’s trying to do it again. Don’t fall for it.



Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/.

Awash in oil money, Guyana promises cash, free tuition and other perks ahead of election


Guyanese President Mohamed Irfaan Ali meets with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, at the United Nations headquarters, Monday, Sept. 23, 2024. (Bryan R. Smith/Pool Photo via AP)

BY BERT WILKINSON
October 11, 2024

GEORGETOWN, Guyana (AP) — Guyanese President Irfaan Ali announced several perks ahead of national elections next year, including free college tuition and a one-time cash payment of nearly $1,000 for every household in the oil-rich South American country.

Ali also promised to cut power bills by half and to increase the monthly minimum wage from $350 to $500 starting next year as he addressed Parliament during a special session late Thursday, noting that the recently wealthy nation of nearly 800,000 people can afford to help residents via public aid programs.

During a press conference after the session, Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo said Guyana’s budget can easily absorb the one-time cash grant to the country’s estimated 264,000 households.

“We have a $22-billion-dollar economy now,” he said.

Guyana was once one of the poorest countries in South America despite large reserves of gold, diamonds and bauxite. But it has been awash in money after a consortium led by ExxonMobil discovered the first major oil deposits in May 2015 off the country’s Atlantic coast.

Production began in December 2019, with an output of some 645,000 barrels a day expected to soar to 1.3 million by 2027.

In 2022, Guyana’s GDP grew by more than 60%, the highest real GDP growth worldwide that year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Free tertiary education had been in place since the mid-1970s but was discontinued in the early 1990s under pressure from the IMF.

The offer of free university tuition is one of several new measures to tackle the high cost of living, Jagdeo said.

Since becoming oil-rich, Guyana’s government has launched infrastructure projects including the construction of hospitals, hotels, schools, highways, its first deep-water port and a $1.9 billion gas-to-energy project expected to lower power bills.

Israel’s airstrike warnings terrify and confuse Lebanese civilians


Men read mobile phone alerts telling residents of southern Lebanon not to return to their homes until further notice because of operations Israel says are targeting Hezbollah facilities in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)


BY KAREEM CHEHAYEB
 October 10, 2024

BEIRUT (AP) — As the war between Israel and Hezbollah intensifies, Lebanese civilians are increasingly paying the price – and this dangerous reality often becomes clear in the middle of the night: That’s when the Israeli military typically warns people to evacuate buildings or neighborhoods to avoid airstrikes.

Moein Shreif was recently awakened at 3 a.m. by a neighbor calling to alert him that Israel planned to strike a nearby building in his middle-class suburb south of Beirut where Hezbollah has a strong presence.

A mobile phone displays an Israeli alert warning residents of southern Lebanon not to return to their homes until further notice in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Shreif, his wife and their three children quickly fled their multi-story apartment building and drove away. Within minutes, explosions rang out, he said later that day upon returning to see the smoldering ruins of his building and the one next door.

“I didn’t even have time to dress properly, as you can see,” said Shreif, a well-known Lebanese folk and pop singer who was still wearing his pajamas from the night before. “I didn’t take anything out of the house.”
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Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging strikes nearly every day since the start of the war in Gaza. Hezbollah says it will fire rockets into Israel until there’s a cease-fire in Gaza; Israel says its fighting to stop those attacks, which have forced tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes.


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But it wasn’t until late last month, when Israel dramatically expanded its aerial campaign against Hezbollah, that Lebanese people began receiving regular warnings about upcoming airstrikes. Human rights groups say Israel’s warnings — which aren’t issued before many airstrikes — are inadequate and sometimes misleading.

On Sept. 23, Israel made 80,000 calls into Lebanon, according to Imad Kreidieh, head of the country’s telecommunications company – presumably recorded warnings about upcoming airstrikes.

The calls caused panic. Schools shut down. People rushed home early from work. It ended up being the deadliest day of airstrikes in Lebanon in decades, with over 500 people killed — roughly one quarter of all those killed in Lebanon the past year, according to the country’s Health Ministry. Women and children make up one quarter of all the deaths, the ministry says.

Israel has issued warnings on social media nearly every day since then.

On Oct. 1, 27 villages in southern Lebanon were told to evacuate to the north of the Awali River, dozens of kilometers (miles) away. “Save your lives,” the instructions said.

That is when Salam, a 42-year-old mother of two, fled the village of Ain Ebel. She and her family are now staying with relatives in Beirut. Salam refused to give her full name for fear of reprisals.

Flames and smoke rise from an Israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein, File)

So far, Ain Ebel – a mostly Christian village – hasn’t been bombarded, although surrounding villages whose residents are predominantly Shiite Muslims have been. Salam’s teenage children are terrified of going home, especially since Israel launched a ground invasion.

Salam is still baffled and angry that her village was evacuated.

So far, evacuation notices in Lebanon have been far more limited than in Gaza, but the messages in both places have a common theme. In Gaza, Israel says it is targeting Hamas militants embedded among Gaza’s civilians. In Lebanon, it warns of similar behavior by Hezbollah, a Hamas ally.
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Most of the Israeli military’s warnings first appear on the social media accounts of its Arabic spokesperson. They are then amplified by the Lebanese media.

The warnings instruct people to vacate homes “immediately,” and they are usually followed by a series of overnight strikes that often cause damage in areas beyond those that were warned. Israel says it is targeting Hezbollah fighters, weapons or other assets belonging to the group. Warnings are rarely issued before daytime strikes.

The Lebanese government says at least 1.2 million people have been displaced by the war, the vast majority since Israel ramped up airstrikes across the country last month. Over 800 of some 1,000 shelters are over capacity.

One quarter of Lebanese territory is now under Israeli military displacement orders, according to the U.N.'s human rights division.

Smoke rises as a building collapses in Beirut’s southern suburbs in Lebanon, Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

“Calling on residents of nearly 30 villages to leave ‘immediately’ is not effective and unlawfully suggests that civilians who do not leave an area will be deemed to be combatants,” said Ramzi Kaiss, a researcher for Human Rights Watch in Beirut.

Kaiss said Israel — which usually issues warnings 30 to 90 minutes ahead of airstrikes — is obligated to protect civilians who refuse to evacuate, or who are physically unable to.

Amnesty International is also critical of Israel’s practice of warning entire towns and villages to evacuate. It “raises questions around whether this is intended to create the conditions for mass displacement,” Agnes Callamard, the group’s secretary general said in a statement on Thursday.

The Israeli military didn’t respond to a request for comment. It has previously said it makes a significant effort to save civilian lives with its warnings.

 Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in the sourthern suburbs of Beirut’s southern suburbs in Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. 

(AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)

For almost a year, Israel’s strikes were mostly concentrated in communities along the border, far from the capital and its populous suburbs. But now people who once felt relatively safe in the outskirts of Beirut are increasingly at risk, and their neighborhoods are receiving a small but growing share of airstrike warnings.

In Shreif’s case, he said his neighbor called about five minutes after the Israeli military issued a warning on the social media platform X.

Shreif considers himself lucky: If it wasn’t for that wake-up call, his family might not be alive. The AP could not determine whether any people were killed or injured in the strike that destroyed Shreif’s building or the one next door.

To the northeast of Beirut, in the Bekaa Valley, Israel recently issued a warning to people to stay at least 1,000 meters (yards) away from their town or village if they are in or a near a home that has weapons belonging to Hezbollah.

 People and rescue workers search for victims after an Israeli airstrike hit two adjacent buildings, in Ain el-Delb neighborhood east of the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari, File)

Some of the warnings have come in the form of animated videos. One shows an elderly woman in a kitchen, suggesting she is unaware of hidden rooms and compartments in her own house that contain weapons for Hezbollah.

“Didn’t you know?” the narrator says in Arabic, as the elderly woman discovers rockets under the couch, behind the shower curtains and elsewhere. The video warns viewers to leave their homes immediately if they – or their neighbors – discover weapons.

But in many cases there are no warnings at all.

Last month, in Ain el-Delb near the southern city of Sidon, an Israeli airstrike hit a residential building, burying about 70 people under the rubble.

 A man looks at destroyed buildings hit by Israeli airstrikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

Achraf Ramadan, 34, and his father were among the lucky one who rescue workers were able to pull out alive. His mother was taken to the hospital alive, but she later died from her wounds. His younger sister Julia, a public relations professional in her late 20s, was found dead. Achraf and Julia together had been leading initiatives to support displaced Lebanese families in and around Sidon.


“This is a nice and peaceful neighborhood,” Ramadan said, sounding dejected. “The international community is asleep and not taking initiative. On the contrary, I think it’s giving Israel an excuse for its barbarity on the pretext of self-defense.”
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Associated Press writers Fadi Tawil in Beirut, Julia Frankel in Jerusalem, and Zeina Karam in London, contributed to this report.

KAREEM CHEHAYEB
Chehayeb is an Associated Press reporter in Beirut.

Displaced Lebanese families face harsh conditions


Issued on: 13/10/2024 -

01:48
Video by:Shirli SITBON

"This is no way to live. Two or three families are living in each room, is this a life?" asks a displaced woman taking refuge in a school-turned-shelter in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon. Israel's expanded operation has displaced more than 1.2 million people, according to Lebanon's government, which says more than 2,100 people have been killed and 10,000 wounded in over a year of fighting.

Reuters call on Israel to investigate journalist Issam Abdallah's killing 'fully and transparently'


Issued on: 13/10/2024 

00:56

October 13, 2024 marks one year since the killing of Reuters video journalist Issam Abdallah by Israeli shelling just over a kilometre from the Israeli border, near the Lebanese village of Alma al-Chaab. Reuters editor-in-chief Alessandra Galloni repeated calls to Israeli authorities for a transparent investigation into the killing of Abdallah.

As Hezbollah and Israel battle on the border, Lebanon’s army watches from the sidelines


BY ABBY SEWELL
October 11, 2024


BEIRUT (AP) — Since Israel launched its ground invasion of Lebanon, Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants have clashed along the border while the Lebanese army has largely stood on the sidelines.

It’s not the first time the national army has found itself watching war at home from the discomfiting position of bystander.

Lebanon’s widely beloved army is one of the few institutions that bridge the country’s sectarian and political divides. Several army commanders have become president, and the current commander, Gen. Joseph Aoun, is widely regarded as one of the front-runners to step in when the deadlocked parliament fills a two-year vacuum and names a president.

But with an aging arsenal and no air defenses, and battered by five years of economic crisis, the national army is ill-prepared to defend Lebanon against either aerial bombardment or a ground offensive by a well-equipped modern army like Israel’s.

Flames and smoke rise from an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein, File)

The army is militarily overshadowed by Hezbollah. The Lebanese army has about 80,000 troops, with around 5,000 of them deployed in the south. Hezbollah has more than 100,000 fighters, according to the militant group’s late leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Its arsenal — built with support from Iran — is also more advanced.


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A cautious initial response

Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters have been clashing since Oct. 8, 2023, when the Lebanese militant group began firing rockets over the border in support of its ally Hamas in Gaza.

In recent weeks, Israel has conducted a major aerial bombardment of Lebanon and a ground invasion that it says aims to push Hezbollah back from the border and allow displaced residents of northern Israel to return.

As Israeli troops made their first forays across the border and Hezbollah responded with rocket fire, Lebanese soldiers withdrew from observation posts along the frontier and repositioned about 5 kilometers (3 miles) back.

 A man uses his mobile phone as flames and smoke rise at the scene of buildings hit by an Israeli airstrike in central Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. 

(AP Photo/Bilal Hussein, File)

So far, Israeli forces have not advanced that far. The only direct clashes between the two national armies were on Oct. 3, when Israeli tank fire hit a Lebanese army position in the area of Bint Jbeil, killing a soldier, and on Friday, when two soldiers were killed in an airstrike in the same area. The Lebanese army said it returned fire both times.

Lebanon’s army declined to comment on how it will react if Israeli ground forces advance farther.

Analysts familiar with the army’s workings said that, should the Israeli incursion reach the current army positions, Lebanese troops would put up a fight — but a limited one.

The army’s “natural and automatic mission is to defend Lebanon against any army that may enter Lebanese territory,” said former Lebanese Army Gen. Hassan Jouni. “Of course, if the Israeli enemy enters, it will defend, but within the available capabilities … without going to the point of recklessness or suicide.”

Rescue workers search for victims at the site of Thursday’s Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)

Israeli and Lebanese armies are ‘a total overmatch’

The current Israeli invasion of Lebanon is its fourth into the neighboring country in the past 50 years. In most of the previous invasions, the Lebanese army played a similarly peripheral role.

The one exception, said Aram Nerguizian, a senior associate with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, was in 1972, when Israel attempted to create a 20-kilometer (12-mile) buffer zone to push back Palestinian Liberation Organization fighters.

At that time, Nerguizian said, the Lebanese army successfully slowed the pace of the Israeli advance and “bought time for political leadership in Beirut to seek the intervention of the international community to pressure Israel for a cease-fire.”

But the internal situation in Lebanon — and the army’s capabilities — deteriorated with the outbreak of a 15-year civil war in 1975, during which both Israeli and Syrian forces occupied parts of the country.

Hezbollah was the only faction that was allowed to keep its weapons after the civil war, for the stated goal of resisting Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon — which ended in 2000.

By 2006, when Hezbollah and Israel fought a bruising monthlong war, the Lebanese army “had not been able to invest in any real-world post-war modernization, had no ability to deter Israeli air power” and “was left completely exposed,” Nerguizian said. “The few times that the (Lebanese army) and Israeli forces did engage militarily, there was total overmatch.”


 Lebanese army soldiers stand guard in front of a car that was hit by an Israeli strike as workers covered it on a truck, in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Friday, Aug. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari, File)

International aid has been a mixed blessing

After the 2011 outbreak of civil war in neighboring Syria and the rise of the Islamic State militant group there, the Lebanese army saw a new influx of military aid. It successfully battled against IS on Lebanon’s border in 2017, although not alone — Hezbollah was simultaneously attacking the group on the other side of the border.

When Lebanon’s financial system and currency collapsed in 2019, the army took a hit. It had no budget to buy weapons and maintain its existing supplies, vehicles and aircraft. An average soldier’s salary is now worth around $220 per month, and many resorted to working second jobs. At one point, the United States and Qatar both gave a monthly subsidy for soldiers’ salaries.

The U.S. had been a primary funder of the Lebanese army before the crisis. It has given some $3 billion in military aid since 2006, according to the State Department, which said in a statement that it aims “to enable the Lebanese military to be a stabilizing force against regional threats” and “strengthen Lebanon’s sovereignty, secure its borders, counter internal threats, and disrupt terrorist facilitation.”

President Joe Biden’s administration has also touted the Lebanese army as a key part of any diplomatic solution to the current war, with hopes that an increased deployment of its forces would supplant Hezbollah in the border area.

But that support has limits. Aid to the Lebanese army has sometimes been politically controversial within the U.S., with some legislators arguing that it could fall into the hands of Hezbollah, although there is no evidence that has happened.

 Lebanese officers parade during a graduation ceremony marking the 74th Army Day, at a military barracks in Beirut's suburb of Fayadiyeh, Lebanon, on Aug. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar

 Lebanese army soldiers sit on their armored vehicle as they patrol the Lebanese side of the Lebanese-Israeli border in the southern village of Kfar Kila, Lebanon, on Oct. 13, 2023. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein, File)

In Lebanon, many believe that the U.S. has blocked the army from obtaining more advanced weaponry that might allow it to defend against Israel — America’s strongest ally in the region and the recipient of at least $17.9 billion in U.S. military aid in the year since the war in Gaza began.

“It is my personal opinion that the United States does not allow the (Lebanese) military to have advanced air defense equipment, and this matter is related to Israel,” said Walid Aoun, a retired Lebanese army general and military analyst.

Nerguizian said the perception is “not some conspiracy or half-truth,” noting that the U.S. has enacted a legal requirement to support Israel’s qualitative military edge relative to all other militaries in the region.

 Lebanese army soldiers deploy at the Lebanese side of the Lebanese-Israeli border in the southern village of Kfar Kila, Lebanon, Saturday, May 15, 2021. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
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Associated Press writer Matt Lee in Washington contributed to this report.

ABBY SEWELL
Sewell is the Associated Press news director for Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. She joined the AP in 2022 but has been based in the region since 2016, reporting and guiding coverage on some of its most significant news stories.