Friday, September 04, 2020



Prehistoric megalodon was a mega-shark that had ‘fins as large as an entire adult human’




Prehistoric megalodon was a mega-shark that had ‘fins as large as an entire adult human’
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A 16-metre megalodon was thought to have had a head 4.65 metres long, a dorsal fin approximately 1.62 metres tall and a tail around 3.85 metres high.

By Amy Barrett, PA Science
04th September, 2020

The entire size of a prehistoric mega-shark made famous in Hollywood films has been revealed in a new study.

Previously only the length of the megalodon had been estimated, but a team from the University of Bristol and Swansea University have determined the size of the rest of its body including fins as large as an entire adult human.

The great white shark – depicted in 1975 movie hit Jaws – is a distant descendant of the megalodon and often measures more than six metres in length.

Researchers used mathematical methods and comparisons with living relatives to find the overall size of the megalodon, which lived from about 23 million to three million years ago but has attracted fame more recently in Hollywood movies including The Meg.

The results suggest a 16-metre megalodon is likely to have had a head around 4.65 metres long, a dorsal fin approximately 1.62 metres tall and a tail around 3.85 metres high.

This means an adult human could stand on the back of the shark and be about the same height as the dorsal fin.

A large megalodon tooth compared with that of a great white shark © Getty Images

Jack Cooper, who has completed a master of science degree in palaeobiology at the University of Bristol’s School of Earth Sciences, described the study as his “dream project”.

“I have always been mad about sharks. As an undergraduate, I have worked and dived with great whites in South Africa – protected by a steel cage of course,” he said.

“It’s that sense of danger, but also that sharks are such beautiful and well-adapted animals, that makes them so attractive to study.”


My 1st paper is out! Stemming from my MSc thesis @BristolPalaeo, we investigate the individual body dimensions of Megalodon. Until now, only total length of this iconic extinct shark has ever been calculated, based on estimates from the great white:https://t.co/eqJkIhESkK pic.twitter.com/Y76VLC4O8T
— Jack Cooper ???? (@CooperPalaeo) September 3, 2020


The study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, was supervised by shark expert Dr Catalina Pimiento of Swansea University and Professor Mike Benton, a palaeontologist at Bristol.

Dr Pimiento said: “Megalodon is not a direct ancestor of the great white but is equally related to other macropredatory sharks such as the makos, salmon shark and porbeagle shark, as well as the great white. We pooled detailed measurements of all five to make predictions about megalodon.”

“Megalodon was actually the very animal that inspired me to pursue palaeontology in the first place at just six years old, so I was over the moon to get a chance to study it,” said Cooper.

“This was my dream project. But to study the whole animal is difficult considering that all we really have are lots of isolated teeth.”

The researchers first tested whether the modern sharks related to megalodon changed proportion as they grew but found this was not the case.


“This means we could simply take the growth curves of the five modern forms and project the overall shape as they get larger and larger – right up to a body length of 16 metres,” Cooper said.

What is a goblin shark?

Forget the great white shark from Jaws or the megalodon from The Meg: there’s a new superstar shark in town, and it’ll give you more nightmares than both of them combined. Meet the goblin shark.

This secretive, four-metre-long fish was first found off the eastern coast of Japan, where it was described in 1898. With its unusually long snout and fleshy skin tone, the shark was given the name tenguzame – a reference to a mythical Japanese monster with a long face, pink skin and demonic jaws, which led to the Western translation, ‘goblin shark’.

In recent years, rare video footage has shown just how incredible its jaws are. First, the goblin shark uses electroreceptors on its long nose to detect the electrical fields of fish. Then, when prey is located, it uses the natural buoyancy provided by its large, oil-rich liver to float silently towards it. When the unwary fish gets within range – SMASH! – a pair of extendable jaws filled with nail-like teeth lunge out from its face.

In every sense, the goblin shark is a creature ripe for Hollywood to exploit. Let’s just hope that it doesn’t follow in the path of many of its shark cousins and become exploited by fishing fleets, too.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-71387-y

Body dimensions of the extinct giant shark Otodus megalodon: a 2D reconstruction

Abstract

Inferring the size of extinct animals is fraught with danger, especially when they were much larger than their modern relatives. Such extrapolations are particularly risky when allometry is present. The extinct giant shark †Otodus megalodon is known almost exclusively from fossilised teeth. Estimates of †O. megalodon body size have been made from its teeth, using the great white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) as the only modern analogue. This can be problematic as the two species likely belong to different families, and the position of the †Otodus lineage within Lamniformes is unclear. Here, we infer †O. megalodon body dimensions based on anatomical measurements of five ecologically and physiologically similar extant lamniforms: Carcharodon carchariasIsurus oxyrinchusIsurus paucusLamna ditropis and Lamna nasus. We first assessed for allometry in all analogues using linear regressions and geometric morphometric analyses. Finding no evidence of allometry, we made morphological extrapolations to infer body dimensions of †O. megalodon at different sizes. Our results suggest that a 16 m †O. megalodon likely had a head ~ 4.65 m long, a dorsal fin ~ 1.62 m tall and a tail ~ 3.85 m high. Morphometric analyses further suggest that its dorsal and caudal fins were adapted for swift predatory locomotion and long-swimming periods.

Introduction

Estimating the body size of exceptionally large extinct taxa is a difficult task because the fossil record is inherently incomplete and because allometry, if present, can make extrapolations hard to model. Palaeontologists therefore have to rely on the relationships between often isolated and fragmented body-part remains and length in extant relatives to estimate the body size of extinct giants12. The extinct †Otodus megalodon has been estimated to be the largest macropredatory shark known to have existed3. Based on its fossil teeth and using the modern great white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) as an analogue, it has been calculated that it reached a maximum total length (herein, TL) of ~ 15 to 18 m3,4,5.

Otodus megalodon was originally classified in the family Lamnidae (order Lamniformes) with C. carcharias considered its closest living relative36,7,8. This classification was based on similar tooth morphologies378, which also implied that the two species shared an ecological function as apex macropredators. Carcharodon carcharias has therefore been widely used as the main modern analogue of †O. megalodon34910. Accordingly, linear relationships between tooth crown height and TL recorded in C. carcharias511 have been used extensively to infer the size and skeletal anatomy of †O. megalodon3,4,5912,13,14. A detailed examination of tooth morphology challenged the relationship between C. carcharias and †O. megalodon, revealing that C. carcharias descended from a lineage that includes the mako sharks (Isurus spp.) and other closely related taxa (i.e. †Cosmopolitodus) rather than †O. megalodon15. This hypothesis has further been supported by the fossil record of Carcharodon16,17,18,19. Accordingly, †O. megalodon was reassigned to the family †Otodontidae within the order Lamniformes1517,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25. Given the different hypotheses for its phylogenetic placement, †O. megalodon has been reported in the literature under different genera such as †Carcharocles, †Megaselachus and †Procarcharodon21. We follow the hypothesis supporting the †O. megalodon lineage as a distinct family (†Otodontidae), derived from the extinct genus †Cretalamna71522, and therefore use the genus †Otodus.

Despite the fact that the placement of †O. megalodon in the family †Otodontidae has been widely explored22, the interrelationships between otodontids and other lamniforms remain questionable25. This uncertainty, coupled with the fact that sharks of different sizes have been reported as being geometrically similar in body profile2627, suggests that other macropredatory lamniforms, in addition to C. carcharias, could serve as modern analogues of †O. megalodon, thus aiding the reconstruction of body dimensions (i.e. head length, dorsal fin height and width, tail height).

Here, based on a series of anatomical measurements from extant macropredatory lamniforms, we reconstruct the linear body dimensions of †O. megalodon at different life stages. We do this using regression analyses of body parts as a function of TL, which have been previously used for both morphological scaling of body form2627, and to predict nonlinear variables such as body mass in sharks28. To select our additional analogues alongside C. carcharias, we utilise extant phylogenetic bracketing29. This method allows us to base our chosen taxa on shared traits between the extant and extinct taxa—in this case, dental, ecological and physiological similarities2425. We therefore select the five extant species of family Lamnidae30 as our analogues based on their shared traits with †O. megalodon (see “Methods” for more details). Our results reveal the potential measurements of (and distances between) body parts given different total lengths (i.e., 3, 8 and 16 m). The estimates of body dimensions of this extinct species have the potential to inform future anatomical, physiological and ecological reconstructions.

Results

Allometry: linear regressions and morphometrics

We first tested for allometry within and between species by modelling 24 anatomical measurements (Supplementary Table S1S2; Supplementary Data 12) as functions of TL in all five modern analogues (Carcharodon carchariasIsurus oxyrinchusIsurus paucusLamna ditropis and Lamna nasus). Measurements in all species showed positive linear relationships with TL, with no evidence for allometry between or within species (Supplementary Fig. S1). Similar relationships were observed within individual life stages (i.e. juveniles, subadults and adults; Supplementary Figs. S2S4). The slope of all linear regressions overlapped, ranging within ~ 0.1 units of one another between species (Supplementary Fig. S5). Adjusted R2 values were relatively high, with 89% of them over 0.7 and 62% over 0.9 (Supplementary Data 3). Of the 144 recorded linear relationships, only six did not show statistical significance (Supplementary Data 3). The most statistically significant linear regressions came from the model using data from all analogue species (P < 0.01; Supplementary Data 3).

To complement the linear regressions, we used geometric morphometrics to evaluate the morphology of the head and fins of the five analogue species, and performed regression analyses between shape and TL to assess for allometry (see “Methods”). A principal component analysis (PCA) revealed shared morphospace in all body parts tested (Fig. 1), the only exception being I. paucus (Fig. 1b,c). Morphological variability between our species is explained by changes in the length of the snout and robustness of the head, in the span and length of the pectoral and dorsal fin, and in the relative length of the dorsal and ventral lobe and the span of the caudal fin. The regression analyses indicate that larger analogues had slightly more robust heads (Fig. 1a; P = 0.1106) and more convex dorsal fins (Fig. 1c; P = 0.0038), whereas smaller analogues had slender heads and more concave rear edges in the dorsal fins (Fig. 1a,c). No allometric change was detected in the pectoral (Fig. 1b; P = 0.5924) or caudal fin (Fig. 1d; P = 0.3208). The caudal fin was found to be the same dorsally directed shape in all analogues (Fig. 1d). All of these results were also observed when all landmarks (total body) were analysed together within a single configuration (Supplementary Fig. S6), with no allometric change detected (P = 0.3028).

Figure 1
figure1

Regression shape changes (above) and PCA (below) of Procrustes coordinates for the five analogue species. These are recorded in the (a) head, (b) pectoral fin, (c) dorsal fin, and (d) caudal fin. In the regression analyses, light and dark grey configurations represent the morphological change occurring from the average shape towards higher scores, considering in all cases a magnitude of the shape change equal to 0.1. Individual colours represent each species in the PCA: green = Carcharodon carcharias; yellow = Isurus oxyrinchus; blue = Isurus paucus; orange = Lamna ditropis; red = Lamna nasus.

2D reconstruction of linear body dimensions

The best linear model (highest statistical significance by 7–33 orders of magnitude; see above and Supplementary Data 3) came from the regression that uses all five analogues together and it is therefore the basis for our extrapolations. We visualise our extrapolations in silhouetted shark models, and in a palaeoartistic reconstruction that also considers our generalised fin and head shape changes in relation to TL uncovered in our morphometric analyses (Fig. 2). Converting the anatomical measurements of our analogues into proportions based on TL indicate that a mature, 16 m †O. megalodon would have had a head ~ 4.65 ± 0.42 m long (~ 29% TL), a dorsal fin ~ 1.62 ± 0.36 m tall (~ 10% TL) and 1.99 ± 0.3 m wide (~ 12% TL), a height of 4.53 ± 0.56 m (~ 28% TL) from the tip of the dorsal fin to the abdomen, and a tail ~ 3.85 ± 0.7 m high (~ 24% TL) (Fig. 2a; Table 1). These measurements for a neonate (3 m; Fig. 2b) and a juvenile †O. megalodon (8 m; Fig. 2c) can be found in Table 1. No dimension in individual life stages overlap within the predicted ranges of other stages (mean ± standard deviation). Our model of a 16 m †O. megalodon using all analogues was stockier (wider vertical dimensions; Supplementary Table S3) and had stronger statistical support (by 7–29 orders of magnitude; see Supplementary Data 3) than an alternative model based on C. carcharias only (the sole analogue previously used). Finally, this multi-analogue model accurately predicted 22/24 of the dimensions of a C. carcharias of known size (Supplementary Table S4).

Figure 2
figure2

Silhouette models visualising †Otodus megalodon body dimensions based on our extrapolations at different total lengths. (a)  ~ 16 m, (b)  ~ 3 m and (c)  ~ 8 m. Abbreviations as in Table 1. Silhouettes created in Adobe Illustrator CC 2018. (d) Palaeoartistic reconstruction of a 16 m †O. megalodon scaled against a 1.65 m human (illustration by Oliver E. Demuth). Fin shapes are based on our generalised morphometric shapes in the silhouettes whereas the reconstruction aims to capture their true biological shapes, i.e. the ceratotrichia of the tail present in all five modern analogues.

Table 1 Proportional mean and standard deviation of all variables against TL and their extrapolations to a 3 m, 8 m and 16 m O. megalodon.

Discussion

The lack of allometry in morphological measurements and strong correlations between the measured variables and TL indicate sufficient predictability and removes risk in the use of extrapolations to estimate the body dimensions of †O. megalodon. The small range in the slope of all linear models implies analogous anatomical relationships between species. These results are supported by earlier suggestions that lamniform morphology strongly links to ecology3132. Therefore, our analogues share a basic external anatomy template that can be applied to †O. megalodon. Our extrapolations to †O. megalodon were based on a linear model that includes all five modern analogues. Although this may partially be due to the wider range of measurements resulting from combining the five analogues, this model statistically outperforms all others, including a model that considers C. carcharias only (Supplementary Table S3). Importantly, our model was proven to predict with accuracy the dimensions of a shark of known size (Supplementary Table S4).

As expected, given the presence of isometry, the dimensions of †O. megalodon body parts increase with TL and therefore, growth. Our calculated sizes can therefore be used to assist ecological inferences of †O. megalodon. It is worth noting that the largest estimated TL of †O. megalodon is more than twice the size of the largest living lamnid3,4,5. As such, it can be risky to use extrapolations instead of interpolations. The presence of larger living analogues (> 7 m TL) would make such extrapolations less risky, but such macropredatory lamniforms do not exist in today’s oceans30. However, the lack of significant allometry found in our analogues from both linear regression and geometric morphometric analyses justifies the use of extrapolations and therefore our ecological interpretations.

Morphometric analyses, albeit mainly used to aid our assessment of allometry, also revealed the possible shapes of the fins and the head in relation to TL. Two distinct dorsal fin shapes were found, with larger sharks possessing taller but narrower convex dorsal fins than smaller sharks (Fig. 1c). Convex dorsal fins in large sharks allow long cruising periods and quick bursts of speed to ambush prey3334. The enormous †O. megalodon therefore likely had a convex dorsal fin built for stabilising swift predatory locomotion and long-swimming periods. This kind of locomotion could have been enhanced by mesothermy, enabling sudden acceleration in predation23,24,2534. However, such a large shark was unlikely to have been capable of long periods of fast swimming34. Research in other giant extinct marine taxa such as ichthyosaurs has suggested that steadier swimming can be used by large predators to reduce energy expended in locomotion35. Therefore, †O. megalodon may have also used scavenging as a feeding strategy, especially as it grew older. Opportunistic scavenging on large whale carcasses has been recorded in C. carcharias, with one study36 noting from four occurrences over ten years that these carcasses quickly attracted large adult individuals. Based on the fact that all analogues share the same dorsally directed caudal fin shape, the same morphology was likely displayed by †O. megalodon (Fig. 2d). This tail anatomy has been categorised as a “type 4” among extant lamniforms32. Tail morphology and evolution have been proposed to be strongly linked to ecology32. Taken together, morphometric analyses of the fins suggest that the giant †O. megalodon was likely a thunniform swimmer, where swimming motion is confined to the tail for high speeds and long distance swimming3032.

In terms of the head, the distinct morphology of larger analogues suggests that the head of †O. megalodon was likely robust, corroborating a large-prey preference as previously proposed based on the fossil record837. Nevertheless, given that during ontogeny †O. megalodon likely shifted its dietary preference from fishes to marine mammals938, such a robust head might have particularly benefited adult individuals with high energetic demands39. †Otodus megalodon’s head would have therefore needed large muscles to support its massive jaws, likely resulting in a more curved snout than in C. carcharias since the body would not have been able to taper to the nose so sharply3. This agrees with the previous suggestion that †O. megalodon had a much greater bite force than that of C. carcharias, and perhaps the greatest bite force of any marine predator known throughout geological time40. Finally, based on the external colouring of extant macropredatory sharks41, we propose that †O. megalodon was likely countershaded. This would have allowed the shark to camouflage against light flow4142, hence facilitating ambush predation83739 and the evasion of predators by nursery-dwelling juveniles914. Our palaeoartistic reconstruction based on our results and ecological inferences allowed us to visualise this hypothesis, as well as the generalised fin and head shapes not captured by the silhouetted shark models (Fig. 2).

This study marks the first quantitative estimate of †O. megalodon specific body-part dimensions, beyond its overall body size. Our model based on a selection of modern analogues outperforms those using individual species (e.g. C. carcharias) and accounts for variability around body dimension averages. Our results reveal that body dimensions of our analogues isometrically correlate to TL. This finding agrees with previous discoveries of similar relationships in linear body dimensions of several other extant shark species2627. Although the exact phylogenetic relatedness of †O. megalodon and its family to the order Lamniformes remains poorly understood212225, our chosen analogue taxa are the most ecologically and physiologically similar living species to †O. megalodon. As such, our ecological inferences for †O. megalodon are similar to those of our analogues, but also line up with what has been inferred from its fossil record38923,24,253739. The knowledge of specific body dimensions beyond TL will therefore enhance further anatomical and ecological reconstructions of this giant marine apex-predator.

Methods

Analogue species

Order Lamniformes comprises 15 extant species30. Of these, five—the great white shark (Carcharodon carcharias), the shortfin mako shark (Isurus oxyrinchus), the longfin mako shark (Isurus paucus), the salmon shark (Lamna ditropis) and the porbeagle shark (Lamna nasus)—were selected as analogues to †O. megalodon based on dental, physiological and ecological similarities. Our analogues comprise the family Lamnidae; a group of large, fast-swimming, mesothermic, macropredatory sharks30. Both lamnids and otodontids, the ‘megatoothed’ lineage which †O. megalodon belongs to, are believed to have evolved from the family Cretoxyrhinidae 7821. This family has been interpreted as mesothermic based on sea surface palaeotemperature, swim speed estimates and metabolic inferences24. These same methods were used for otodontids and the results suggested similar thermoregulatory capabilities24. Moreover, a phylogenetic analysis of the evolution of thermophysiology in this group found that mesothermy had likely evolved once in the Cretaceous25. Based on these studies, we considered otodontids to be mesothermic. Furthermore, the five chosen analogue taxa possess tooth morphologies similar to various otodontids, suggesting similar diet and ecology. For example, both families show variation in occurrences of dental lateral cusplets3043. Based on these variations, L. nasus is considered the best dental analogue for both †Cretalamna and †Megalolamna, mako sharks (Isurus spp.) have similar dental morphology to †Otodus, and C. carcharias has similar dentition to †Otodus (Carcharocles) and †Otodus (Megaselachus)21. As such, the five chosen analogues for this study share a unique physiological adaptation, ecology and dental morphology with †O. megalodon and other members of its proposed family.

Data collection

We searched for images of all analogues in the Web using the species and common names. Most of these images were retrieved from online databases44,45,46. In total, we collected 54 images. The source of each image and more details can be found in Supplementary Data 1. We took 25 anatomical measurements of all individuals from digital images (Supplementary Data 2; Supplementary Table S1). Scaled image measurements of both traditional and geometric morphometrics have been previously used to respectively acquire linear body dimensions and to infer variation in morphology and ecology in marine organisms47,48,49,50. This method therefore represents a viable non-lethal alternative for collecting measurement data, which have been proposed as urgently needed for the declining populations of large predatory sharks51. The life stage of each individual was also recorded (see Supplementary information for more details). We selected the best images for our analyses using a scoring system, in which images with no distortion or blur had the highest score and from which TL was known or could be estimated using a scale. Angled specimens were tilted to a purely lateral view using ImageMagick52. Measurements were taken using ImageJ53. In total, 41 shark individuals were used (C. carchariasn = 9; I. oxyrinchusn = 9; I. paucusn = 5; L. ditropisn = 9; L. nasusn = 9) (image score = 3; Supplementary Data 1).

Linear regressions

We tested for allometry across all data and in individual life stages by modelling all anatomical measurements as a function of TL in R54. Because linear models assume normal distribution, raw data were Tukey transformed in the rcompanion package55 (see Supplementary Table S2). We retrieved the parameters of the relationship, extracting the linear regression from the model as:

y=mx+c

where x = TL, y = body measurement, m = slope and c = intercept (see Supplementary Data 3).

Geometric morphometrics

Our geometric morphometrics approach followed similar methodology to Ferrón et al.56, which used allometric regression analyses of shark palaeoecological data to infer the caudal fin morphology of †Dunkleosteus terrelli. We defined a series of landmarks of type 1, 2 and 3 (head: N = 10; pectoral fin: N = 15; dorsal fin: N = 20; caudal fin: N = 25; total body: N = 68) that were digitised using tpsDig2 software57 (Supplementary Fig. S7). All subsequent analyses were conducted in MorphoJ58. The superimposition of landmark configurations was carried out with full Generalised Procrustes Analysis (GPA) and Procrustes coordinates were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA) to determine morphospace occupation shared by the analogues. The significance of the regressions was checked by means of permutation tests (N = 10,000). Finally, the Pinocchio effect (where variation is extremely localised to a single landmark, or a small number, and is then smeared over a wider area during least-square Procrustes superimposition5960), was checked by comparing full GPA and Resistant Fit Theta-Rho Analysis (RFTRA) superimpositions in IMP CoordGen8 software61. This risk of distortion was excluded by the results of these comparisons (Supplementary Fig. S8). All outlier sharks with fin abnormalities were removed from the analysis. These included images in which the pectoral fin was not in position for horizontal swimming, and, in one case, an image displaying “Lucy”, a ~ 5 m C. carcharias with a damaged caudal fin (Supplementary Data 2). If included, these specimens would have resulted in fin landmarks in differing positions in relative morphospace, something that can result in landmark distortion and potentially the Pinocchio effect. In all statistical analyses, we considered P < 0.05 as the threshold of statistical significance.

Morphological extrapolations

We converted anatomical measurements of the five analogues to proportions based on TL. We then calculated the mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum values of each measurement in centimetres (cm) and extrapolated them to †O. megalodon measuring 3 m (neonate), 8 m (juvenile)39 and 16 m (conservative maximum body size5) using the linear regression described above. Sizes chosen to represent each life stage were based on ontogenetic inferences made by Gottfried et al.3 in their skeletal reconstruction of †O. megalodon. We compared our extrapolations of a 16 m long †O. megalodon against an alternative model that considered only C. carcharias. Our model’s accuracy was tested by using it to infer the body dimensions of a ~ 7 m long C. carcharias. Finally, we created basic silhouette models to illustrate and scale our extrapolations at each life stage, and had a palaeoartistic reconstruction made to illustrate our results and ecological inferences in a biological light (Fig. 2d).

Data availability

The datasets generated and/or analysed during the current study can be found via the Dryad Digital Repository at: https://datadryad.org/stash/share/cGI08m4rPYWUD6VucWxu0oz3TniVnLKC-5umhvLHgaE.

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Acknowledgements

We thank M. Francis, R. Tarr, C. Da Silva and A. Fox for providing images and data; J. Cunningham, J. Ives, C. Kunz, T. Lewis and S. Pimiento for software assistance; J. Griffin for helpful discussion of the methodology; and O. Demuth for his palaeoartistic reconstruction. Finally, we are grateful to the reviews from J. Liston and two anonymous reviewers, whose feedback substantially improved the manuscript. C.P. was funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant agreement no. 663830. H.G.F. is a recipient of a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (H2020-MSCA-IF-2018-839636). M.J.B. was funded by a NERC Grant NE/I027630/1.

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J.A.C, C.P. and M.J.B. designed the research; J.A.C. gathered the data; J.A.C. and C.P. carried out linear analyses; J.A.C. and H.G.F. conducted morphometric analyses; J.A.C. wrote the manuscript with input from all co-authors.

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Correspondence to Catalina Pimiento.

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 A general strike in Belarus could bring the Lukashenko regime down, but so far it has failed to reach critical mass


Belarus' general strike only took off on August 13 after the details of police brutality began to emerge radicalising even Lukashenko's most loyal supporters
By Ben Aris in Berlin September 4, 2020

The mass rallies that have filled the streets of Minsk for the last three weeks are inspiring, but it is the general strike by the blue collar workers, traditionally Belarus' self-appointed President Alexander Lukashenko’s core supporters, that could bring his regime down.

The extent of the population’s disapproval only really became apparent when workers at the biggest state-owned enterprises rebelled during the first week of protests and chanted “get out” to Lukashenko’s face when he was foolish enough to address the employees at the MZKT truck factory on August 17, supposedly a bastion of support. It was dubbed his “Ceausescu moment” by pundits and he quickly left, looking visibly shaken by the experience.

But the general strike took a little time to take hold and experts say that it has failed to reach the critical mass needed to force Lukashenko from office. The first call for a general strike was made by the Telegram channel Nexta, which has become the de facto organiser of the protest movement, on August 11. It flopped.

A few workers downed tools, but were quickly arrested by waiting security services agents and disappeared into the detention centres that consumed 6,600 protestors over the first three days of general protests, who were horrifically beaten, raped and tortured.

But it was that very ill treatment that gave the general strike the impetus it needed. As details of the beatings emerged the entire population – including the factory workers – were radicalised. On August 13 the workers of state-owned company after state-owned company walked off the shop floor and the general strike became real.

Taking a leaf out of the Polish Solidarity movement that brought Polish industry to halt in the '80s, paving the way for the collapse of Soviet control and which celebrated its 40th anniversary this year, most of Belarus’ biggest companies have been affected. Bring the economy to a standstill is one of the most powerful weapons the population have to force Belarus' Lukashenko to the negotiating table.

However, despite the popular outrage the strikes are partial at most plants as many workers remain intimidated by the threat of the sack and Lukashenko’s promise to lock them out of any future employment if they do down tools.

And Lukashenko is not going to give up without a fight. He has called for the dismissal of workers for participating in strikes. “We have surplus personnel at MTZ [Minsk Tractor plant], MAZ [Minsk Automotive Works], BelAZ [Belarus Automotive Works] – everywhere. Let them go! But after that there should be no place for them in factories,” Lukashenko said on August 15, adding that he would close all enterprises where a strike began. However, none of them have been closed yet.

He also threatened to replace the staff of state-owned plants with Ukrainian workers, in comments that immediately backfired. Having lived through two revolutions that ousted two presidents already, the head of a mining union in Ukraine quickly put out a statement that no Ukrainian workers would travel to Belarus and his union was with the Belarusian people.

But following Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement that he was willing to send a special military unit to quell the protests “if necessary” on August 27, Lukashenko has taken back the initiative and re-launched his campaign of intimidation in an effort to reassert his control.

It has been hard to assess how widespread the strikes have been and what impact they have had on Belarus’ leading enterprises. An investigation conducted by RBC estimated a total of 30 enterprises have been affected, although other estimates put the number at 150, which collectively have revenue equivalent to 27% of Belarusian GDP, based on last year’s results.

Of these state-owned enterprises (SOEs), every fifth is engaged in mechanical engineering, and every sixth is engaged in food production. The rest are involved in oil refining, transportation, fertiliser production, construction and electrical engineering, according to RBC.

The irony of the Belarus protest being an “old school” traditional revolution where it is the working classes that are holding their oppressors to account has not been lost on commentators.

“I love the idea that the working class can be the backbone of the current revolutionary movement in Belarus,” wrote Renaissance Capital chief economist Charlie Robertson on August 14 as cited by RBC, as the strikes were picking up steam.

But the state continues to up the ante and is already carrying out reprisals against workers who refuse to work. “The shutdown of enterprises is not only a decline in wages, loss of markets and the closure of production facilities, unemployment, a fall in the ruble and a rise in prices. Who and what will say to those who have lost their jobs when a budget clinic or school is closed near their home? One day a communal apartment will double in size, and no one will take out garbage from the yard for weeks,” warned the State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Andrei Ravkov, who has just been replaced as Lukashenko shores up his control over the security organs.

Part of the problem is while workers' unions have always been around, they were developed as another mechanism of control and were a throwback to Soviet-era unions that were designed to give the veneer of a “Workers' Paradise” rather than be truly representative bodies of the workers’ interests.

Workers have come out on strike as individuals, appalled at the mistreatment of the people by the police, rather than being taken out on strike by national level union organisations. As a result, the strikers are vulnerable to threats by the enterprise managers who remain loyal to the state and who are singling out the most vociferous strikers for punishment and dismissal. In other reported incidents workers have simply been locked in on shop floors and not allowed to leave the work place.

Another tactic employed by workers to avoid retribution but nevertheless cause the state problems is the “Italian strike”, where they go to their work places but basically do nothing. However, it appears this tactic too has failed to catch on and has not been effective.

According to IMF estimates, state-owned enterprises create more than 30% of added value in the country's economy, which is significantly higher than in other Eastern European countries; for comparison SOEs account for 10% of GDP and in Russia 15%, according to RBC. According to the National Statistical Committee of Belarus (Belstat), at the end of March 2020 the state owned 3,220 legal entities and employed 1.25mn people from a total population of just under 10mn, or 42.8% of the total working population.

RBC concludes that much of the strikes are actually protests and the strike movement has not gained a critical mass that would put the government under sufficient pressure to force it into negotiations. Moreover, as time passes the authorities' pushback is already effectively undermining the movement as the most militant workers are removed.

Belarus’s economy in danger of a crisis in the face of sustained popular protests, says IIF

Belarus’s economy in danger of a crisis in the face of sustained popular protests, says IIF
Belarus only has $8.9bn in reserves, not enough to support the ruble and meet its debt obligations this year without Russia's help
By Ben Aris in Berlin September 2, 2020

Gripped by mass protests and a general strike, Belarus will struggle to meet its debt obligations this year and faces a serious economic crisis, reports the Institute of International Finance (IIF) in a paper released on September 2.

“Widespread protests, which began in the aftermath of the disputed presidential election on August 9, have now entered a fourth week, and the ultimate outcome of the stand-off remains uncertain,” Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist with the Institute of International Finance (IIF) and economist Benjamin Hilgenstock said in a paper IIF shared with bne IntelliNews. “After some concessions in recent weeks, authorities have reverted to a tougher stance, likely emboldened by Russian promises of support to Lukashenko.”

The EU has threatened to impose sanctions on government officials but so far only the Baltic states have imposed any new measures – mostly personal travel bans and asset freezes targeting the individuals organising the torture and repression in Belarus.

US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun met with opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya this week but did not comment on whether similar steps were being considered by the US.

The international response to the events in Belarus has been loud condemnation, but very limited action, part at the request of the opposition themselves, who are wary of being dragged into the geopolitical stand-off between Russia and the West.

Funding the regime

Russia’s continued support is essential for Belarus, as it holds almost half of the country’s $17bn of public external debt (47%). In addition, Minsk is highly dependent on Russia’s energy subsidy, as well as exports to and imports from its eastern neighbour. About 40% of Belarus’ exports go to Russia, which also accounts for 40% of all the inbound investment. The true share of Russian inbound investment rises to more than half if the investment from Cyprus and the Netherlands is assumed to be Russian money too.

As bne IntelliNews reported, the Belarusian ruble (BYN) has already lost some 11% of its value against the dollar in the last month and the government only has about $8.9bn of reserves ($4bn in dollar cash and the rest in gold and assorted assets), or equivalent to 2.4 months worth of imports. Economist say that a country needs a minimum of three months of import cover equivalent to ensure the stability of the national currency.

“While the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) denied rumours of FX shortages as it tightened liquidity to prevent further pressure on the currency, external financing stress could reach precarious levels,” warn Ribakova and Hilgenstock.

“In our baseline scenario, which assumes a drawn-out political stalemate in the context of $2.3bn in upcoming public external debt service, reserve losses would reach $3bn in 2020 – almost 1/3 of Belarus’ total reserves of $8.9bn,” the economists add.

Year-to-date, the currency has weakened by 26%, according to IIF, reflecting not only political uncertainty but also disruptions as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic that has raged unchecked due to Belarus' self-appointed President Alexander Lukashenko's unwillingness to take it seriously.

“This follows a period of a broadly stable BYN/USD exchange rate over 2016-19. As FX shortages appear to mount, high dollarisation is limiting the NBRB’s ability to step in as lender of last resort. Further dollarisation, for example as a result of attempts to ‘buy-off’ striking state-owned enterprise (SOEs) employees through the printing of money, could put significant pressure on already-limited reserves,” Ribakova and Hilgenstock said.

While it appeared that Lukashenko could be swept out of office by the popular uprising that has engaged almost the entire population from the liberal middle class to the blue collar workers in the SOEs, Lukashenko traditional base, that all changed following Russian President Vladimir Putin statement that he was willing to send a special military unit to quell the protests “if necessary” on August 27. The result of this statement was to significantly bolster Lukashenko's position and will almost certainly lead to the standoff being protracted. 

“In this scenario, the Lukashenko regime will reject demands for a peaceful and organised political transition, but also refrain from any major escalation of its response to ongoing demonstrations. As a result, Western countries will likely limit sanctions to specific individuals and entities directly responsible for acts of oppression and hold back with respect to measures targeting major SOEs,” said IIF.

With the current regime remaining in power, Russia is expected to roll over existing debt and provide additional funding, thereby alleviating external financing stress and allowing Belarus to avoid a financial crisis, according to IIF. “Nevertheless, pressure on Belarus’ already-low reserves would be significant, even if manageable over the near term,” IIF added.

IIF considered two additional scenarios: one that assumes a peaceful transition of power leading to an opening-up of the economy (upside scenario); and one that assumes a deterioration of the political conflict and eventual escalation of violence (downside scenario).

“In the former, Belarus would attract inflows from international financial institutions (IFIs) and bilateral partners in the West, while maintaining its strong relationship with Russia,” say Ribakova and Hilgenstock.

In the positive scenario higher non-resident inflows, together with lower resident outflows, would allow for reserve gains of $1.75bn in 2H20 (and $1bn for the full year), according to IIF estimates.

In the negative scenario sanctions would be extended to SOEs and IFI support becomes out of the question. As a result, resident capital flight would accelerate to $3.5bn and surpass the record of $2.6bn in 2011, when Belarus had its last crisis and deep devaluation.

“Not included in our scenarios are additional risks to the [current account], which could partially stem from the loss of IT service revenues (over $2bn in 2019),” Ribakova and Hilgenstock say.

The IT industry has been the main driver of the economy in recent years, and in addition to bringing in export revenues equivalent to a quarter of the country’s entire hard currency reserves it also continues to grow at over 30% a year, industry experts told bne IntelliNews in a recent podcast. However, both Japanese-owned Viber and Russian-owned Yandex have already closed their offices and an exodus of IT companies is anticipated after over 300 IT CEOs signed a letter warning they would leave the country if Lukashenko did not end the repression after the police crackdown began in the first week of protests.

The outlook for the Belarusian economy is now highly uncertain. Russia has stepped in with financial aid before in times of political or economic crises but used it to exert pressure on the Lukashenko regime. The same is likely to happen again now. Putin has invited Lukashenko to Moscow in the near future where the Union State deal, that was agreed in principle in 1999, could be signed into existence that will bring the two countries much closer together, creating an eastern version of the Eurozone, including a single currency.

“However, the scale and persistence of the current protests is unprecedented. In the absence of meaningful external pressure, with protesters undeterred and the regime’s ability to suppress the opposition largely remaining in place, we see no reason to expect an end to the prevailing political stalemate,” say Ribakova and Hilgenstock.


UPDATES

Diplomatic Downfall: What Happened To The Belarusian Ambassador Who Challenged Lukashenka
September 04, 2020 14:55 GMT
By Ray Furlong
RFE/RL's Belarus Service

He was a career diplomat who was once a foreign policy adviser to Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, but he then became the first -- and only -- Belarusian ambassador to support protests against his boss. Now, Ihar Leshchenya is at his dacha near Minsk; he's no longer in the diplomatic service, and hopes he won't be arrested.

Alexander Lukashenko's 26-year rule of Belarus faces its biggest challenge
Aleksey Laptenok
CGTN
Europe 04-Aug-2020

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been the country's leader for 26 years but faces opposition from a host of candidates amid a fascinating election contest. /Michael Stewart/Getty Images

The 2020 Belarusian presidential election is already different from the past six. That's not because of who the president is – Alexander Lukashenko has been in power for 26 years – but because the opposition has been able to galvanize significant portions of the population to join street protests to give voice to their cause.

The current president

In 1994, during the first Belarusian presidential election since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Alexander Lukashenko saw off then-Prime Minister Vyacheslav Kebich, to earn a four-year term. Then, through a series of referendums, the former farm manager prolonged and then abolished term limits. The decades under Lukashenko's administration have been marked by a focus on agricultural development, shifting winds in relationships with Moscow and tension in relations with the West. But he now faces a real threat to his leadership, with four candidates pushing for the presidency.


Large swathes of Belarusian voters have taken part in street protests to show their support for opposition candidates because of the state media's lack of coverage of rival parties. /AFP

The opposition candidates

Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya, the wife of a famous Belarusian opposition member and blogger who took over his campaign when he was jailed (see below).

Anna Kanapatskaya, a former member of parliament who is alienated from mainstream opposition movements because of her association with the ruling institutions.

Andrey Dmitriev, the co-chairman of the political movement "Tell the Truth," which has persistently led vocal criticism of Lukashenko's rule. Dmitriev previously worked in campaigns for opposition candidates in the 2010 and 2016 elections.

Siarhei Cherachen, a businessman who was once a member of the Communist party but left join the Belarusian Social Democrats, where he became chairman of the party.



Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the wife of a famous Belarusian opposition member and blogger has taken over her husband's campaign after he was jailed and galvanized a huge supporter base, with thousands attending her rallies./AFP

A number of other candidates have been prevented from standing including: 

Siarhei Tsikhanouski, a popular Belarusian blogger who had become an icon of the street political movement, was jailed after leading thousands of supporters onto the streets. 

Viktar Babaryka, once considered to be Lukashenko's main opponent and a former chairman of JSC Belgazprombank, was also jailed for corruption-related offenses.

Valery Tsepkalo, a former ambassador to the U.S., was barred from standing after the electoral commission ruled he had not secured enough valid signatures. He later left the country, claiming he was facing trumped-up criminal charges.

These three decided to combine their campaign teams with Tsikhanouski's wife, Svetlana, as head of the coalition.



Tikhanovskaya has joined forces with Veronika Tsepkalo, left, who is the wife of another presidential candidate who was banned from standing, and Maria Kolesnikova, the campaign manager for another. /AFP

The issues

Lukashenko has put economics and political independence at the heart of his campaign. He pitches himself as the candidate of stability who is strong enough to stand up to Moscow, suggesting his opponents would deliver either subservience to Russian president Vladimir Putin or the chaos of a revolution.

For her part, Tsikhanouskaya has promised to hold a second election, including the candidates who failed to make the ballot this time around, if she wins. Almost all the opposition figures propose restricting the role of the president and bringing back term limits. Dmitriev and Cherachen advocate peacefully managed economic and social reforms, while Kanapatskaya stands for tax liberalization to support small businesses.

The street movement

With opposition candidates struggling to get their message across on state media, their supporters have taken to the streets to deliver their message. While official polling puts Lukashenko's approval rating as high as 76 percent, walls across the country have been covered in "3 percent" graffiti to illustrate what opponents believe is a more accurate measure of his popularity. 

In mid-July, thousands demonstrated in Belarus's largest cities but the rallies were suppressed by special forces and police.


Lukashenko's denial of COVID-19 and the subsequent deaths of Belarusian people has prompted backlash from the population who have accused him of sacrificing the lives of their loved ones./AFP

COVID-19 denial

For some time, Belarus has stood almost alone in denying the threat posed by COVID-19. The authorities did not introduce any restrictive measures, with Lukashenko personally downplaying the danger of the virus. He subsequently contracted the illness but maintained that his "wise orders helped him to save the economy of the country" by avoiding a costly lockdown. Families of victims of the illness have played a part in the opposition movement, accusing the government of sacrificing the lives of their loved ones. 

The country's economy has traditionally been heavily reliant on Russia, which has helped to insulate it from fluctuations in the global economy with subsidies on imported gas and oil. However, those benefits are being withdrawn, posing questions over how the country can replace the lost revenue.

Belarusian Authorities' Crime 'Will Not Be Erased From Memory,' Says Opposition Leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya
August 28, 2020 By Irina Peters
Belarusian opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskay

VILNIUS, Lithuania -- Now in its 19th day, Belarus's political crisis has slipped toward a potentially more phase with President Vladimir Putin signaling the possibility of deploying a Russian security force to help buttress Alyaksandr Lukashenka's grip on power.

Deploying Russian forces in her country would be a mistake, said Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the self-exiled former presidential candidate who has become an unlikely leader of the Belarusian opposition.

"This is our internal problem, an internal issue that Belarusians must resolve with the Belarusian government," Tsikhanouskaya told RFE/RL.

Tsikhanouskaya spoke with RFE/RL on August 28 from the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, where she fled amid threats to her family.

Her husband Syarhey, a potential challenger to Lukashenka in the August 9 presidential election, had been arrested before the vote and remains in police custody, reportedly in a jail on Minsk's outskirts. A proficient English speaker who previously was a stay-at-home mother, Tsikhanouskaya took up the mantle from her husband after he was jailed.

Then, with opposition protests mounting over allegations the vote was rigged in Lukashenka's favor, Tsikhanouskaya joined with prominent cultural figures to create the opposition Coordin

Time is running out for Lukashenko

By Andrius Kubilius

04-09-2020 (updated: 04-09-2020 )


Belarus people attend a protest rally against the results of the presidential elections, in Minsk, Belarus, 30 August 2020. Opposition protests in Belarus continue against alleges poll-rigging and police violence at protests following election results claiming that president Lukashenko had won a landslide victory in the 09 August elections. [EPA-EFE/STRING


Alexander Lukashenko lost the August elections in Belarus, and new polls must be held immediately. Anything else should be treated no differently from a coup d’etat, writes Andrius Kubilius.

Andrius Kubilius is a Member of the European Parliament, Co-President of the Euronest Parliamentary Assembly, and a former Prime Minister of Lithuania.

In Belarus, people continue to defend their 9 August victory, and Lukashenko continues to target the protests with violence and relies on support of Putin. But nothing will change the fact that Lukashenko lost the election on 9 August. He knows that if free and fair elections were to take place, he would lose even more.

In responding to the “Belarus crisis”, two essential things must be in focus: Lukashenko has lost the election; and new elections must be held immediately, not “later on”.

5 November and Lukashenko

According to the Constitution, adopted under Lukashenko, his current term will end on 5 November – currently, Lukashenko is the President who lost 9 August elections and whose term in office expires on 5 November.

After 5 November, Belarus will not have a President. According to Article 81 of the current Constitution, “when the office of the President is vacant” extraordinary Presidential elections must be held no earlier than 30 days and no later than 70 days after the vacancy has occurred.

After 5 November, Lukashenko will be an ordinary Belarusian citizen that can be referred to as “the former President of Belarus”. If Lukashenko tries to organize “new inauguration” before 5 November, it will be nothing more than an illegal usurpation of power, possibly even with the use of military force. This should be treated as a coup.

After 5 November there will be no ‘President Lukashenko’ also from the international law perspective. He will either be “the former President” or “the coup d’etat chief Lukashenko”. This means that any dialogue or engagement with Lukashenko will no longer be possible. The international community will have to negotiate with the Prime Minister of Belarus, who will hold the office of President until the new elections are held, to ensure that genuinely democratic and transparent new Presidential elections are held no later than 70 days after 5 November.

Brussels, Berlin, Washington – and Moscow

Western democracies are showing solidarity with the Belarusian civic nation, while Putin does not hide his support for the regime of Lukashenko. Putin’s support is becoming the only factor allowing Lukashenko to hold on to the post.

Putin holds the keys to the door of Lukashenko’s withdrawal. That is why Western leaders call Lukashenko’s “boss”, Putin, to negotiate his withdrawal, rather than directly addressing Lukashenko himself. It is also quite clear that Putin is using these discussions to draw his own “red lines” on the geopolitical future of post-Lukashenko Belarus.

Nevertheless, the revolutionary changes in Belarus are turning into a trap for Putin. A dictator himself, Putin has many reasons to support Lukashenko, but his long-term support for the “toxic” Lukashenko may leave him just as “toxic” in the eyes of the Belarusians. And there is no good way out for him.

The role of the OSCE

The OSCE may be best placed to take action to address the current “Belarus crisis”. Primarily because its members are both in the West and in the East. OSCE is the only political organization on the European continent of which Belarus is a member. Also, the OSCE election observation body ODIHR does its job effectively.

Russia, also a member of the OSCE, will try to use the role of the OSCE to Lukashenko’s advantage to buy time. Therefore, the West, together with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, representing the democratic society of Belarus, should have a clear position: the role of the OSCE in resolving the “Belarus crisis” is solely needed to ensure transparent and democratic elections. It would be a mistake to enter into an indefinite OSCE-led negotiation process regarding any loosely defined “transitional period”.

No! – To the Lukashenko-Lavrov Plan: A new constitution, instead of new elections

One of the questions to be addressed immediately, in particular, by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and the Coordinating Council, is the plan announced by Lukashenko and promoted by Lavrov and Putin – to draft a new Constitution for Belarus, and postpone the new elections to after it has been adopted. Lukashenko makes no secret that the process could take a few years. It is quite clear that the Kremlin will seek to turn this procrastination plan into an OSCE-backed process.

The Western community should not fall into this trap. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya recently have said very clearly – no discussions about constitutional changes before new transparent elections will be held.

Marshall Plan for Democratic Belarus

Economy of Belarus will pose some of the most difficult challenges, as it is deeply integrated into the Russian economy and thus highly dependent on the Kremlin. As a result, one of the top priorities for EU in the near future will be to help diversify the Belarusian economy at the same time reducing its dependency on Russia. For that, we need a much larger support package of EUR 3.5-4 billion, which we could call the Marshall Plan for Democratic Belarus.

Spreading the news already now about such a Plan would help counter the propaganda and fear spread by the Lukashenko regime, predicting the detrimental effects that new elections and real democracy in Belarus would have on the Belarusian economy.

******************

The fate of the Belarusian democracy is being decided on the streets of Minsk. The victory of democracy will prevail. My optimism stems not only from faith in and admiration for the new civic Belarusian nation but also from a clear understanding that change in Belarus is driven by objective historical processes: the continued collapse of the Soviet/Russian Empire and its post-imperial spheres of influence as well as the end of the era of post-Soviet authoritarian leaders.
 
DISCLAIMER: All opinions in this column reflect the views of the author(s), not of EURACTIV Media network.ation Council.

Its stated aim is to negotiate with Lukashenka's government on a new election, the release of detained protesters, and, potentially, the president's departure from power.

SEE ALSO:
What Exactly Is The Coordination Council And What Are Its Plans To Oust Belarus’s Leader?


But Lukashenka has dug in his heels. In recent days, prosecutors have announced a criminal investigation of the council -- jailing two of its leaders who remained in Minsk and calling in other members for questioning -- including the Nobel laureate Svetlana Alexievich.

In towns and cities across Belarus, the streets have been packed with tens of thousands of protesters – and possibly hundreds of thousands at the largest gathering in Minsk. The outpouring of opposition has become the biggest challenge to Lukashenka's 26-year rule.


Mass Protests And An Armed President As Standoff In Belarus Enters Third Wee

In her RFE/RL interview, Tsikhanouskaya again called for Lukashenka to step aside, calling it a "worthy" decision to close out his tenure.

"It would be very worthy for him to be just the first president, who ruled for a long time and then resigned at the request of the people, and not to turn his departure into bloody massacres, not to cause hatred of his people," she said.

While defying the popular calls for a new election that is free and fair, Lukashenka has also signaled the possibility of a harsher approach toward demonstrators.

Russia, Belarus's most important economic and strategic partner, has been closely watching the upheaval. Kremlin planners are wary of a repeat of what happened in Ukraine in 2014 when mass protests led to the ouster of the pro-Russian president there.

Underscoring the Kremlin's potential involvement in the crisis, Lukashenka and Putin have held at least five phone calls since the election.

In an interview broadcast by Russian state TV on August 27, Putin revealed that Russia has set up a special security force at the request of Lukashenka -- the strongest signal to date that Moscow might physically intervene in Belarus.

"We also agreed that it will not be used unless the situation gets out of control," Putin said.

SEE ALSO:
Putin Backs Minsk's Response To Protesters, Says Russian Troops Prepared To Deploy


Tsikhanouskaya suggested that Putin's message was clear. But she insisted bringing in Russian forces would be unnecessary. And she warned of the possibility of "provocations" -- with authorities trying to intentionally provoke violence in order to create a pretext for imposing harsh measures.

"There will be no reasons for bringing in some kind of 'help', riot police or someone else, because we have purely peaceful protests," she said. "Among the Belarusian people, no one wants a violent resolution to the issue."

Lukashenka, she said, should leave office willingly and without violence. But she also suggested that there will be consequences for the officials who directed the violence and repressions that targeted protesters.

"Unfortunately, the authorities have committed a crime that will not be erased from memory," she said.

"Belarusians are not vindictive," she said. "If, it seems to me, it's possible to leave with dignity, then perhaps this will be a very great mitigating circumstance for [Lukashenka's] fate."

"I would like it all to end beautifully," Tsikhanouskaya said. "I do not want to plunge into the abyss."



Irina Peters is a correspondent in Lithuania for RFE/RL's Russian Service.
Here’s Why BuzzFeed News Is Calling QAnon A “Collective Delusion” From Now On

QAnon is much bigger — and more dangerous — than other conspiracy theories.


Posted on September 4, 2020, at 12:04 p.m. ET

Rick Loomis / Getty Images
Outside a Trump rally in Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 2, 2018.

What is QAnon?

It’s not easy to describe, but one thing we know to be true: It’s not a conspiracy theory — it’s bigger.

What started as a thread on the anonymous message board 4chan has long since entered the mainstream: Questions about QAnon have been asked in the White House press room, and a Q follower is poised to be voted into Congress later this year.

When QAnon started appearing several years ago, journalists fumbled to concisely explain it to mystified readers, and usually settled on far-right conspiracy theory.

The shorthand largely stuck. But QAnon is much more complicated and convoluted — and dangerous — than other conspiracy theories. The QAnon belief system has inspired violence and crime across the United States, leading the FBI to label it a domestic terrorism threat in 2019.

The editors at BuzzFeed News have become uneasy about using conspiracy theory to describe QAnon, which has grown to encompass a whole alternative world of beliefs and signals. The copydesk has to stay on top of language and note when terms become stale and reductive; QAnon has shifted, and so should how we write about it.

QAnon is a collective delusion, and that's what BuzzFeed News will be calling it from now on.

The name QAnon itself is a portmanteau: Q refers to the highest level of security clearance a Department of Energy employee can attain — credentials claimed by someone posting as “Q” on anonymous message boards, beginning in 2017 with prognostications about a supposed ring of child abusers and sex offenders in the Democratic Party and the “deep state.” Although their predictions started out very specific, when those were not fulfilled, they became more and more vague.


And when we say vague, we mean incomprehensible. One of Q’s posts reads, “_Comf D-TT v891 0600 yes. green 1 0600. Bunker Apple Yellow Sky...yes Godspeed. Q.” (Followers claimed those tea leaves referred to an aircraft accident in England.)

The nebulous nature of Q’s dispatches has been a blank slate onto which other deeply troubling conspiracies have been projected. “Birthers,” for example, who promoted the easily disproven claim that Barack Obama had been born outside the US and was therefore ineligible to be president (it’s now being applied to another Black aspirant to the White House, Kamala Harris), and anti-vaxxers, who want to deny lifesaving vaccines to children, have entered the QAnon universe. Some QAnon conspiracies are deeply rooted in anti-Semitism, and they have amplified efforts to demonize George Soros.


Joseph Prezioso / AFP / via Getty Images
A protest against a mandate from the Massachusetts governor requiring all children to receive a flu vaccine to attend school in Boston, on Aug. 30, 2020.


It has also embraced the dangerous “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory — a fixation on a Washington, DC, pizza parlor owned by a Democratic supporter whose name appeared in the infamous WikiLeaks emails. This culminated with a man driving from his North Carolina hometown to the restaurant, determined to investigate the alleged child abuse happening in the parlor’s basement — the building has no basement — and firing an AR-15 rifle inside the pizzeria. “I just wanted to do some good and went about it the wrong way,” the gunman told the New York Times. “The intel on this wasn’t 100 percent.”


Some people have even compared it to a religion; it has a savior figure (Trump), prophetic scripture, what they have dubbed a “Great Awakening” (an acknowledgment by the mainstream that what they believe is true), and many followers refer to Q as a saint. “It is also already much more than a loose collection of conspiracy-minded chat-room inhabitants,” Adrienne LaFrance writes in the Atlantic. “It is a movement united in mass rejection of reason, objectivity, and other Enlightenment values. … To look at QAnon is to see not just a conspiracy theory but the birth of a new religion.”

QAnon is not something to joke about. The mere concept — a global Satan-worshipping cabal led by prominent Democrats, under the eye of Hillary Clinton, who are kidnapping, abusing, and eating children and drinking their blood in order to live forever — is cartoonish on its face. But it’s not to be underestimated, and it can’t be treated simply as an online phenomenon. The real-world effects of QAnon have already been made clear: In 2018, a Q believer engaged in an armed standoff at the Hoover Dam. Recently, they’ve worked to hijack legitimate attempts to fight child sex trafficking.

Not everyone who subscribes to parts of the QAnon mass delusion believes in all of it. Some people could be sharing the material in ignorance of its true depth. Others could be using it to carry out identity signaling — disenfranchised people seizing on a bizarre narrative to show that they are "Patriots," regardless of the content of the messages. And with such a mess of entry points, someone could very well pass along parts of the QAnon narrative without realizing what the whole entails — just look at the recent false rumors that Wayfair was involved in sex trafficking.

The copydesk wanted to focus on QAnon for this issue of Quibbles & Bits to emphasize that there’s more to the convoluted entity than the average reader might realize. The term we’ve decided to use — a mass or collective delusion — is not ideal; delusion could be interpreted as too sympathetic to Q believers, or as taking away their agency. (The word could also be related to a mental disorder, though that is not the context in which we’re using it here.) And, fair warning, you might still see conspiracy theory in a BuzzFeed News headline about QAnon since headlines and tweets aren’t conducive to nuance.


But delusion does illustrate the reality better than conspiracy theory does. We are discussing a mass of people who subscribe to a shared set of values and debunked ideas, which inform their beliefs and actions. The impact of QAnon is an example of “the real-world consequences of our broken information ecosystem,” the New York Times recently wrote. The proliferation of this delusion is in part a media literacy problem — which has become a reality problem.

Some more explainers and readings on QAnon:


BuzzFeed News: A video explainer on QAnon.


Fresh Air: “It’s almost like a bad spy novel,” Adrienne LaFrance says.


BuzzFeed News: “People Think This Whole QAnon Conspiracy Theory Is a Prank on Trump Supporters


New York Times: “It’s a collaborative fiction built on wild speculation that hardens into reality.”


Washington Post: “How to Talk — and Ask — About QAnon


The Atlantic: “American Conspiracy Theories Are Entering a Dangerous New Phase


Wired: “A centuries-old anti-Semitic blood-harvesting myth is spreading freely on far-right corners of social media — suggesting a new digital Dark Age has arrived.”



Dru Moorhouse is the copy chief for BuzzFeed News and is based in Los Angeles.

Emerson Malone is a copy editor for BuzzFeed News and is based in Los Angeles.

Highest Nile waters for a century swamp Sudan
Issued on: 04/09/2020 - 07:46

Flood waters from the Nile have swamped the Sudan's Tuti island, wedged between the twin cities of Khartoum and Omdurman, destroying homes and forcing people to flee 
ASHRAF SHAZLY AFP

Khartoum (AFP)

On Sudan's Tuti Island, where the Blue and White Nile meet, the highest river waters since records began have left people struggling to hold back the rising floods.

Wedged between the twin cities of Khartoum and Omdurman, people on Tuti fill bags with sand and small stones in an often futile bid to stop the lapping water from swamping their homes.

The world's longest river is life-giving, but the Nile also brings misfortune and misery to many.


"Three days ago the water invaded my house around midnight," said Swakin Ahmad, dressed in a red headscarf.

"We were knee-deep in it. My husband and I, with our five children, fled... carrying a few things in our hands."

Every year during the rainy season the river floods, and the people of the island expect the waters to rise.

But nothing in the past compares to the floods of today, residents say.

- More rain forecast -

"In previous years, we would leave our house for two months to live with friends," Ahmad said.

"But this year that was impossible, because water had entered their homes too."

Civil defence officials say that seasonal floods have killed 94 people, injured 46 and destroyed or damaged over 60,000 homes across Sudan during the current season.

The level of the Blue Nile has risen to 17.57 metres (57 feet), the ministry of water and irrigation said this week, breaking all records since measurements began more than a century ago.

But many fear the worst is yet to come.

Heavy rains are forecast to continue through September, both in Sudan and upstream in neighbouring Ethiopia, the source of the Blue Nile.

"Young people tried to rescue things from my house," Ahmad said. "But it was hopeless, because they had water up to their necks and could not see anything."

Residents have thrown up makeshift barrages in the path of the water, but their efforts have been engulfed by the rising river.

Iqbal Mohamed Abbas, who welcomed many of those forced from their homes at her educational centre, described "the courage with which young people tried with simple means to slow down the flood."

She recalled previous occasions when the island was flooded, remembering a tune her grandparents sang decades ago.

"I am proud of these young people who came to try to stop the Nile with their bodies," Abbas said, reciting the lyrics.

But this time it appears much worse.

Sudan's water ministry predicts that this year's flood is larger than that of 1998, which destroyed tens of thousands of homes in several states and displaced more than a million people.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that more than 380,000 people have already been affected across the country.

- Changing weather -

The floods come despite the controversial construction upstream of a 145-metre (475-foot) tall hydroelectric dam across the Blue Nile, and the vast reservoir behind that Ethiopia has begun filling.

Both Sudan and Egypt view the mega dam as a threat to their water supplies, but heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands has eased fears of water shortages in the short term.

But some experts, such as the US-based research and campaign group International Rivers, have warned that changing weather patterns due to climate change could result in irregular episodes of flooding and drought in the Blue Nile's drainage basin.

For the people of Tuti, the reason behind the record floods matters little -- it is the loss of their homes that is the tragedy.

People preferred to risk drowning rather than leave their property, psychologist Enshirah Sharaf said.

"I had to convince them to leave their homes -- it was heartbreaking," Sharaf said. "There was nothing to be done, the water was pouring in everywhere."

People's homes were washed away.

"I told them it is possible to rebuild your homes, but we wouldn't be able to revive souls that fly away upon drowning," Sharaf said.

As residents piled up more sand bags, the army arrived to help.

For Sudan, where military dictator Omar al-Bashir was toppled last year, the appearance of soldiers bringing in aid seems like a change from the past.

"I saw their eyes red from a lack of sleep," said Hisham Kamal, an army general, who led a convoy of 90 trucks carrying food, and sand to stop the waters.

"I came to help," he said. "It is our duty."

© 2020 AFP

Race to find ship survivors as Typhoon Haishen nears Japan
Issued on: 04/09/2020 - 
Dramatic photos released by Japan's coast guard showed the rescue of one survivor from a ship that sank during a typhoon Handout 10th Regional Coast Guard Headquarters/AFP/File

Tokyo (AFP)

Japanese authorities were racing Friday to find dozens of people missing after a cargo ship carrying 6,000 cows sank in a typhoon as a second, much more powerful, storm drew nearer.


Just one survivor has so far been rescued of the 43 crew on board, with a second person found dead.

Typhoon Haishen is forecast to tear through the area from late Saturday, packing winds of up to 288 kilometres per hour (180 miles per hour), making it a "violent" storm -- the top level on Japan's classification scale.


The Gulf Livestock 1 issued a distress call early on Wednesday as Typhoon Maysak -- which brought smaller gusts of up to 162 kph -- moved through the area off Japan's west coast.

On Wednesday evening, coastguard rescuers found one survivor who said he had put on a life jacket and jumped into the sea after a warning announcement on board.

The 45-year-old Filipino chief officer said one of the boat's engines had stalled and the vessel was overturned by a powerful wave before eventually sinking.

Precisely when and where it sank remained unclear.

Dramatic footage released by the coastguard showed the treacherous conditions in the area, with the man bobbing in the open ocean in an orange life jacket and rescuers battling violent waves to pull him on to their boat with a rope.

He was moved to a larger boat and wrapped with blankets.

"Water," said the man, who identified himself as a Filipino in the video. "Thank you, thank you very much."

"I am the only one? No other one?" he asked.

- Second typhoon approaching -

There have been few signs of other survivors. A rubber dinghy was spotted on Wednesday with no one on board and an empty life jacket was retrieved, the coastguard said.

Dead livestock from the boat have also been seen in the waves.

Four coastguard vessels, a defence ministry plane and specially trained divers are involved in the search.

But it is unclear how much longer their efforts can continue, with Haishen heading towards the area.

The storm was expected to begin affecting areas including Okinawa in southern Japan and parts of western Kyushu from Saturday night to Monday, and the government warned residents to prepare.

"In the region that the typhoon is approaching, record rains, storms, high waves and high tides are feared," government spokesman Yoshihide Suga said Friday.

In preparation, water was being emptied from behind dams to make room for heavy rainfall and a quick response system to warn residents was being activated, he added.

The Gulf Livestock 1 was carrying a crew of 39 Filipinos, two New Zealanders and two Australians, and was travelling from Napier in New Zealand to the Chinese port of Tangshan.

It had experienced engine problems before: a 2019 observer report by Australian authorities noted that the boat was forced to drift at sea for 25 hours after an issue with its main engine while en route to China.

In the wake of the accident, New Zealand said it was temporarily suspending live cattle exports.

© 2020 AFP


Frenchman to livestream death in right-to-die case


Cocq has used his plight to draw attention to the situation of terminally-ill patients in France who are unable to be allowed to die in line with their wishes 
PHILIPPE DESMAZES AFP/File

Dijon (France) (AFP)

A Frenchman who is suffering from an incurable condition said Friday he plans to livestream his death on social media as he refuses to take food, drink or medicine after President Emmanuel Macron turned down his request for euthanasia.

Alain Cocq, who suffers from a rare condition where the walls of the arteries stick together, said he believed he had less than a week to live and would livestream his death on Facebook from Saturday morning.

He had written to Macron asking to be given a substance that would allow him to die in peace but the president wrote back to him explaining this was not allowed under French law.


Cocq, 57, has used his plight to draw attention to the situation of terminally-ill patients in France who are unable to be allowed to die in line with their wishes.

"Because I am not above the law, I am not able to comply with your request," Macron said in a letter to Cocq, which the patient published on his Facebook page.

"I cannot ask anyone to go beyond our current legal framework... Your wish is to request active assistance in dying which is not currently permitted in our country," said Macron.

- 'With profound respect' -

In order to show France the "agony" caused by the law in its current state, Cocq told AFP he would broadcast the end of his life on his Facebook page which he believed would come in "four to five days".

He said he hoped his struggle would be remembered and "go down in the long term" as a step forwards in changing the law. He would halt all feeding, drinking and treatment from Friday night.

Macron said in his latter that "with emotion, I respect your action." And the president added a handwritten postscript, saying: "With all my personal support and profound respect."

An Elysee official told AFP that Macron wanted to hail Cocq's commitment to the rights of the handicapped.

Right-to-die cases have long been an emotive issue in France.

Most polarising was the case of Vincent Lambert who was left in a vegetative state after a traffic accident in 2008 and died in July last year after doctors removed life support following a long legal battle.

The case divided the country as well as Lambert's own family, with his parents using every legal avenue to keep him alive but his wife and nephew insisting he must be allowed to die.

A French court in January acquitted the doctor who switched off the life support systems in a verdict that was a formality after prosectors said he "perfectly respected his legal obligations."

lv-leb-ggy-sjw/wdb

© 2020 AFP

Crewman killed as oil tanker fire rages for second day off Sri Lanka coast



Issued on: 04/09/2020 - 08:16
The New Diamond is classified as a very large crude carrier (VLCC), and is about 330 metres (1,080 feet) long - Sri Lankan Air Force/AFP

Colombo (AFP)

A Panamanian-registered oil tanker burned out of control for a second day off Sri Lanka on Friday as authorities confirmed a Filipino crew member was killed in an explosion and fears grew of a major new oil spill in the Indian Ocean.

Sri Lankan navy and Indian coastguard vessels fired water cannon at the blaze on the New Diamond, which issued a distress call Thursday after its engine room exploded.

A Sri Lankan helicopter was dropping water from the air on the blaze at the rear of the vessel.


The fire had not spread to the 270,000 tonnes of crude and 1,700 tonnes of diesel the tanker is carrying, Sri Lanka's navy said.

"Preliminary information from the ship's crew confirmed that a Filipino seaman on board had died in a boiler explosion," the navy said in a statement.

All but one of the 23-member crew -- 18 Filipinos and five Greek nationals -- were rescued on Thursday.

The ship's third officer, also a Filipino, had suffered burn injuries and was taken to the Kalmunai hospital, 360 kilometres (225 miles) east of the capital Colombo. His condition was stable, the navy spokesman said.

Neighbouring India has sent warships and coastguard vessels to help with the rescue, while Sri Lanka's air force deployed a helicopter to douse the flames.

The tanker was about 60 kilometres (38 miles) from Sri Lanka's east coast when it sounded the alert and during the night drifted 10 kilometres closer.

Sri Lanka's navy said it believed there was no immediate danger to the coastline but remained concerned about the possibility of oil leaking.

The New Diamond is classified as a very large crude carrier (VLCC), and is about 330 metres (1,080 feet) long.

The stricken vessel is a third larger than the Japanese bulk carrier MV Wakashio, which crashed into a reef in Mauritius last month leaking over 1,000 tonnes of oil into the island nation's picturesque waters.

The New Diamond had been taking the crude from Kuwait to the Indian port of Paradip.

© 2020 AFP

 

Rich countries often fail to ensure children's well-being, UN report suggests

In some of the world's richest countries, including Germany, many children are dissatisfied with their lives, a UNICEF study shows. The COVID-19 crisis is having a "catastrophic" effect on children's well-being.

    

Children in wealthier industrial nations are often unhappy with their lives, dealing with mental problems, obesity and lack of basic reading and mathematical skills all negatively impacting their well-being, according to a study released by the UN's children's agency on Thursday.

In most of the 41 EU and OECD countries examined in the study by UNICEF's research center Innocenti, less than 80% of 15-year-old children said they were satisfied with their state of well-being. Turkey had the lowest rate of satisfaction at 53%, followed by Japan and the United Kingdom.

Read more: Asymptomatic children can spread coronavirus for weeks, study finds

Germany middling

The so-called Report Card showed that in Germany, 75% of girls and boys were very satisfied with their lives, placing the country in the upper middle spectrum.

A spokesman for UNICEF Germany, Rudi Tarneden, said the German statistic could be read two ways.

"On the one hand, 75% is a good value, but you can also turn it around and say: Every fourth child is not very satisfied. And that's not that good in an international comparison," he said.

The Netherlands, Denmark and Norway were the three countries with the happiest children, with the Netherlands achieving a score of 90% highly satisfied children.

Childhood problems

Dissatisfaction among children can even lead to suicide, which is one of the main causes of death among 15- to 19-year-olds in rich countries, according to the UN. Lithuania was the country with the worst record on this score in the study, followed by New Zealand and Estonia.

Obesity is one of the major risks to children's well-being, with around one in three children being affected by the problem to some degree, the study showed. In Germany, some 27% of children are classed as overweight. The rate of obesity is growing fastest in southern Europe.

Another finding of the study was that around 40% of children in EU and OECD countries lack basic skills in reading and math. The countries with the lowest scores in this regard were Bulgaria, Romania and Chile, while children in Estonia, Ireland and Finland were top of the class.

Some improvements, but a great danger

UNICEF also noted several improvements in children's lives across the countries covered, including the fact that 95% of children were receiving some form of organized preschool educational support. The report also showed that the number of young people who did not attend school or do some kind of training had sunk in 30 of 37 countries.

But UNICEF emphasized that the ongoing coronavirus pandemic was having a "catastrophic" impact on children, particularly because of school closures and restrictions on movement. It also warned that the expected slump in world economies over the next few years would increase child poverty if no measures were taken to combat it.

Read more: Poverty threatens ever more people in Germany 

If you are suffering from serious emotional strain or suicidal thoughts, do not hesitate to seek professional help. You can find information on where to find such help, no matter where you live in the world, at this website: https://www.befrienders.org/

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