Comprehensive look at US fuel economy standards show big savings on fuel and emissions

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY, ENGINEERING SCHOOL

Research News

IMAGE: THE GRAPH SHOWS VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED VERSUS FUEL CONSUMPTION FROM 1965 THROUGH 2018 IN THE UNITED STATES. WHILE TRAVEL INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THAT TIME, FUEL USE DROPPED DUE, IN LARGE... view more 

CREDIT: GRAPH COURTESY OF THE RESEARCHERS (REBECCA CIEZ); REDESIGN BY BUMPER DEJESUS

In one of the first comprehensive assessments of the fuel economy standards in the United States, Princeton University researchers found that, over their 40-year history, the standards helped reduce reliance on foreign oil producers, cut greenhouse gas emissions, and saved consumers money.

Using data including household spending data, oil use, and greenhouse gas emissions, the researchers found that the standards (known as the CAFE standards), which were first enacted in 1975 as a way to reduce dependence on foreign oil after the oil crisis, set well-defined societal objectives and were cost-effective, fair, durable and adaptive. The standards required automakers to produce more efficient vehicles over time, increasing the number of miles per gallon required of their vehicle fleets. The researchers cite that the standards saved $5 trillion in fuel costs and prevented 14 billion metric tons of carbon from being released into the atmosphere, the equivalent of the United States eliminating all emissions from all sectors for nearly three years.

"It has been one of the most effective policies to date," said Judi Greenwald, a co-author of the study, former top U.S. Department of Energy official and non-resident fellow at the Princeton University's Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment.

The paper, coauthored by Greenwald, Rebecca Ciez and David Greene, was published on August 23 in the journal Energy Policy. Ciez was a Distinguished Postdoctoral Fellow at the Andlinger Center and Greene is a research professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. Ciez has accepted a position as assistant professor in mechanical engineering and environmental and ecological engineering at Purdue University.

"There really hasn't been any comprehensive lookback to day one of the standards to consider what their impacts have been, how they changed over time, whether the potential threats to their effectiveness materialized or not, and their overall impact," said Greene.

The researchers noted that the policies helped, in part, to keep the rate of yearly growth in U.S. gasoline consumption to 0.2% since 1975. The policy, in addition to fluctuations in gas prices, reduced oil imports and saved 2 trillion gallons of gasoline, enough to fuel all the light-duty vehicles in the United States for fifteen years.

"These standards have been remarkably effective from both an environmental perspective and an energy security perspective, and most people don't realize it," said Greenwald.

The authors said these types of regulations are more effective at improving fuel economy than other policy tools, like a gasoline tax, because they don't rely on the consumer to make the long-term fuel-efficient choice and, therefore, gain cost benefits at the pump. The fuel economy standards move the calculation to regulators and require that manufacturers improve fuel economy across their product lines using technologies that may cost a little more but save consumers much more on fuel in the long run.

A prior study by Greene found that over the lifetime of the policy, the technology for efficiency upgrades increased the cost of cars by an average of $4,800, but yielded $16,000 in savings for consumers at the pump.

Dan Sperling, founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis, who is unaffiliated with the study, called it an "important and authoritative history and analysis." "There is nothing like this in the literature," said Sperling, who is also the Distinguished Blue Planet Prize Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy at UC, Davis and a member of the California Air Resources Board.

Greenwald said the standards have evolved in ways that continue to benefit and serve the public and have endured various administrations and political tides. It is a testament to their initial design, as well as regulators' adaptive responses to changing circumstances over time. In 2010, two sets of vehicle standards affecting automakers, one for greenhouse gas emissions and one for fuel efficiency, were harmonized so that manufacturers could meet one set of standards when designing new vehicles.

The analysis concludes with a recommendation to continue to increase the stringency of the standards based on the best available data and analysis, as regulators have done historically. The most recent rules promulgated by the Trump administration aim to loosen the fuel efficiency requirements by dropping the annual efficiency increase from five percent to one and a half percent through 2026. Given that transportation is the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and that people keep their cars for approximately 10 years, this would severely stymie environmental progress, the researchers said. The Rhodium Group, an independent research organization unaffiliated with the study, estimates that the policy change would achieve only one fifth of greenhouse gas reductions that the Obama-era policy would achieve.

Ciez pointed to the 1990s as an example of what can happen when fuel targets are effectively frozen. She said it led automakers to produce bigger, faster, and more polluting cars. Gas prices were cheap and gas-guzzling vehicles hit the road in mass numbers. Car companies made SUVs and vehicles with quicker acceleration times, which became very popular among American drivers. Ciez said without the standards, there is little incentive for automakers to focus on fuel economy as opposed to horsepower or vehicle comfort. The standards have spurred technological innovation, allowing cars to provide all three attributes - power, comfort, and efficiency - at a reasonable cost.

Regardless of the what happens over the next four years, Sperling said, the authors have provided "a model for assessing other policies."

In the closing statement the authors contextualized this moment in history.

"It is likely that the United States is in the middle, not the end, of the story of the adaptive response of the vehicle CAFE and GHG standards."

###

 

Warning: Epidemics are often followed by unrest

From the Black Death to the Spanish Flu, history teaches that social tension accumulated over an epidemic can lead to significant episodes of rebellion, according to a study by Massimo Morelli and Roberto Censolo

BOCCONI UNIVERSITY

Research News

IMAGE: MASSIMO MORELLI, BOCCONI UNIVERSITY view more 

CREDIT: PAOLO TONATO

If you have not been hearing much of the French Gilets Jaunes or of the Italian Sardines in the last few months, it's because "the social and psychological unrest arising from the epidemic tends to crowd-out the conflicts of the pre-epidemic period, but, at the same time it constitutes the fertile ground on which global protest may return more aggressively once the epidemic is over," writes Massimo Morelli, Professor of Political Science at Bocconi, in a paper recently published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy.

Professor Morelli and Roberto Censolo (University of Ferrara) argue that we can get an informed opinion about the possible effects of COVID-19 on protest and future social unrest by looking at the great plagues of the past, so they analyze 57 epidemic episodes between the Black Death (1346-1353) and the Spanish Flu (1919-1920). They state that while the epidemic lasts the status quo and incumbent governments tend to consolidate, but warn that a sharp increase in social instability in the aftermath of the epidemic should be expected.

Revolts not evidently connected with the disease are infrequent within an epidemic period, but epidemics can sow other seeds of conflict. Government conspiracy, "the filth of the poor", foreigners and immigrants have often been singled out as the cause of an epidemic. "Overall, the historical evidence shows that the epidemics display a potential disarranging effect on civil society along three dimensions," the authors write. "First, the policy measures tend to conflict with the interest of people, generating a dangerous friction between society and institutions. Second, to the extent that an epidemic impacts differently on society in terms of mortality and economic welfare, it may exacerbate inequality. Third, the psychological shock can induce irrational narratives on the causes and the spread of the disease, which may result in social or racial discrimination and even xenophobia." Focusing on five cholera epidemics, Morelli and Censolo count 39 rebellions in the 10 years preceding an epidemic and 71 rebellions in the 10 years following it.

On the other hand, the authors note that, in the short-term, the necessary restrictions of freedom during an epidemic may be strategically exploited by governments to reinforce power.

Roberto Censolo, Massimo Morelli, "COVID-19 and the Potential Consequences for Social Stability", in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, published online ahead of print, DOI: 10.1515/peps-2020-0045.

THE SCIENTIFIC PROOF FOR 

DIALECTICAL MATERIALISM

Germany: Right-wing extremists dominate anti-virus protests
2020/9/6

©Deutsche Presse-Agentur GmbH

Germany: Right-wing extremists dominate anti-virus protests - A man holds up the German imperial flag during a demonstration against coronavirus measures. Right-wing extremists gave speeches at 90 demonstrations protesting against measures to contain the coronavirus this year, according to Germany's domestic security agency. - Fabian Sommer/dpa

Right-wing extremists gave speeches at 90 demonstrations protesting against measures to contain the coronavirus this year, according to Germany's domestic security agency.

In recent months, the country has seen major demonstrations and rallies against regulations introduced to prevent the spread of the virus.

In late August, tens of thousands of people gathered in Berlin to demonstrate against health measures, protesting against what they called "coronavirus dictatorship" and "corona madness."

Among them were groups of self-declared Reichsbuerger (Reich citizens), who deny the legitimacy of the modern-day German state, chanting and carrying posters and leaflets. There were also smaller groups of neo-Nazis and right-wing extremists.

Members of the far-right Alternative for Germany party have also been seen at the rallies and protests.

While large gatherings in Berlin have captured headlines, regionally, the eastern state of Saxony Anhalt saw the most protests with right-wing speakers, the security agency said. The eastern state saw more than a third of the protests dominated or led by right wingers from April 25 to August 10.

The agency noted there had also been two protests in the western cities of Essen and Dusseldorf in July, with several hundred people gathering to oppose government health measures.

Often, such protests were not registered by organizations but by individuals, the agency said. Some were not registered in advance at all.

The agency provided the figures in response to a question posed by the Left Party parliamentary group.

A MUSICAL INTERLUDE WITH PINK MARTINI LIVE IN STUTTGART 2010

Chinese group plans to recover WWII American plane from lake

By SAM McNEIL

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Han Bo, chairman of the China Adventure Association, talks about an insole found during an exploratory dive at the crash site of a fighter plane from the legendary Flying Tigers group of American pilots that crashed in a lake during World War II at his office in Beijing on Saturday, Sept. 5, 2020. The Flying Tigers, who were sent to China in 1941 by President Franklin D. Roosevelt before Washington joined the war, have long been one of the most potent symbols of U.S.-Chinese cooperation. The Tigers fought Japanese invaders from December 1941 until they were absorbed into the U.S. military the following July. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

BEIJING (AP) — A Chinese group plans to try to recover a fighter plane from the legendary Flying Tigers group of American pilots that crashed in a lake during World War II.

The Flying Tigers, who were sent to China in 1941 by President Franklin D. Roosevelt before Washington joined the war, have long been one of the most potent symbols of U.S.-Chinese cooperation. The Tigers fought Japanese invaders from December 1941 until they were absorbed into the U.S. military the following July.

The Curtiss P-40 crashed in 1942 in Dianchi Lake near Kunming, the southwestern city that was the Tigers’ base.

“We hope the project of salvaging the P-40 can be a warm current in the cold wave and ease people’s worries about Chines-U.S. ties,” said Han Bo, chairman of the China Adventure Association, a nongovernment group that promotes outdoor activities and historical monuments.

The Tigers were credited with shooting down almost 300 Japanese aircraft while losing 14 of their own pilots. Their battles were some of the earliest American aerial victories in the war.

“Before the P-40 planes were deployed, the Japanese planes had the advantages in China,” said Han.

The body of the P-40’s pilot, John Blackburn, was recovered after the crash and returned to the United States. The plane sank into the lakebed.


Han said his group found the wreckage using magnetic surveying equipment in 2005 but couldn’t safely lift it out of the silt. He said divers recovered a shoe insole and a wire used to control the plane’s rudder.

The group plans to build a barrier around the aircraft, remove the silt and then lift it by crane to the surface, Han said.

“Now the technology is ready,” he said.

The group is trying to raise 30 to 40 million yuan ($5 to $7 million) in public donations to pay for salvaging the plane, Han said. The plan is to display it in a museum but it hasn’t been decided where.

Han said he is inviting surviving Flying Tigers and their families to visit for the raising of the wreckage.

——

Associated Press researcher Henry Hou contributed to this report.

Curtiss P-40 Warhawk - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Curtiss_P-40_Warhawk

The Curtiss P-40 Warhawk is an American single-engined, single-seat, all-metal fighter and ground-attack aircraft that first flew in 1938. The P-40 design was a modification of the previous Curtiss P-36 Hawk which reduced development time and enabled a rapid entry into production and operational service.

Unit cost‎: ‎US$44,892 in 1944

Manufacturer‎: ‎Curtiss-Wright Corporation

First flight‎: ‎14 October 1938

Produced‎: ‎1939–1944

‎Curtiss P-40 Warhawk variants · ‎List of surviving Curtiss P-40s · ‎Curtiss XP-46

Flying Tigers - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Flying_Tigers

The First American Volunteer Group (AVG) of the Republic of China Air Force in 1941–1942, nicknamed the Flying Tigers, was composed of pilots from the United States Army Air Corps (USAAC), Navy (USN), and Marine Corps (USMC), recruited under President Franklin Roosevelt's authority before Pearl Harbor and commanded by ...

‎List of Flying Tigers pilots · ‎Flying Tigers (film) · ‎Flying Tigers (disambiguation)

Flying Tigers: These Americans mercenaries were the heroes ...

www.cnn.com › 2020/07/21 › asia › world-war-2-flying-tigers-intl-hnk-scli

Jul 24, 2020 - A few hundred of Americans became the heroes of China in 1941-- flying warplanes featured a tooth-filled shark on their nose, destroying ...

For Lebanese, recovery too heavy to bear a month after blast

By SARAH EL DEEB 

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This Aug. 29, 2020 photo shows destroyed buildings near the scene of last month's massive explosion that hit the seaport of Beirut, Lebanon. A month after the giant explosion that killed and injured thousands and destroyed homes across the Lebanese capital, Beirut is still a wounded, grieving city struggling to come to grips with the calamity that struck abruptly on Aug.4. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

BEIRUT (AP) — A month after Beirut’s devastating explosion, Ghassan Toubaji still sits under a gaping hole in his ceiling — he can look up through the dangling plaster, wires and metal struts and the broken brick roof and see a bit of sky.

The 74-year-old survived the Aug. 4 blast with bruises, but his fall from its impact worsened his heart and blood circulation diseases. Between that and Lebanon’s crumbled economy, he can’t go back to work.

He used the last of the dollars his wife had been hoarding — a precious commodity as the local currency’s value evaporates — to fix the windows shattered by the explosion.

Teams of volunteers, a symbol of the help-each-other spirit that’s grown up from the failures of Lebanon’s corrupt political class, came by his apartment and assessed the damage. They put plastic on the windows and promised glass for free eventually. Four weeks later they hadn’t come back.

With a sweet patient smile, he said he appreciated how well meaning the young volunteers were. But he couldn’t wait — with humidity reaching 80% some days and the summer sun directed all day into his apartment, he had to do something.

“Our house is hot as hell,” he said, sitting in baggy shorts and a tank top as he watched the news in the room with the hole overhead.

Lebanese families are still struggling with rebuilding in the wake of the massive explosion centered at Beirut’s port. Many, already unable to make ends meet because of the country’s economic meltdown, now can’t bear costs of making homes livable. Frustration is high, with the state almost nowhere to be seen and promised international help slow in coming.

With winter and the rainy season only weeks away, aid groups are concerned they may not have time or resources for the mammoth job of repairing and rebuilding.

Around 200,000 housing units, approximately 40,000 buildings, were damaged in the blast, 3,000 of them so severely they are currently uninhabitable, according to U.N. estimates.

The loss of homes is just one of the indignities from the explosion, the result of nearly 3,000 tons of improperly stored and rotting ammonium nitrates igniting at the port. The blast, one of the strongest non-nuclear explosions ever recorded, killed more than 190 and injured thousands.

A month later, Beirut is still a wounded, grieving city struggling with the calamity that abruptly altered so many lives. Tall buildings still face the port with blown-up facades. Hundreds-year old stone buildings have gaping holes and missing balconies. Features of small streets parallel to the port have been totally erased. Residents walk around with patched up eyes, bandaged arms or on crutches.

Social media are still awash with people sharing their stories and videos and recounting their persisting trauma. Pictures of the dead are plastered in neighborhoods. “He is a victim, not a martyr,” read one poster, rebuffing authorities’ attempts to give the dead that esteemed label of self-sacrifice for a cause, seen as a way to water down their own responsibility.

The United Nations appealed for $344.5 million in emergency funds to last until November, and a donor conference was co-hosted by France and the U.N. days after the blast. But so far only 16.3% of the funds have been received.

Of the total pledges, $84.5 million is meant for securing and repairing shelter, but only $1.9 million has been dispersed, said Elena Dikomitis, advocacy adviser for Norwegian Refugees Council for Lebanon.

Aid groups worry the funds are not robust enough.

“The cold and rain could start as early as October,” she said. “For sure, tens of thousands of houses can’t be repaired in time. That we know for sure, even with all the ongoing efforts.”

The NRC is working in two of the hardest-hit neighborhoods, Karantina and Mar Mikhail. It is targeting 12,400 people for help with shelter and 16,800 for water, sanitation and hygiene interventions before March 2021, she said.

Lebanon already has highly vulnerable populations that need help for shelter in winter, including more than 1 million Syrian refugees, the majority of whom live in substandard conditions and now risk being overlooked. “On top of those people ... you also now have all the new homeless of Beirut,” Dikomitis said.

The international community, aware of public anger in Lebanon over rampant corruption, has said it would funnel money away from government institutions and work only through international organizations and the U.N.

Many Beirutis say they are sick of hearing about aid on the way, as they struggle to stay above water in the financial crisis.

The currency has crashed in value to the dollar, and banks locked down dollar accounts to prevent capital flight. Prices have skyrocketed, and imports are limited in a country that imports nearly everything. Unable to access their money, even the most able are struggling to secure materials for repairs.

“Nobody has helped us with even a nail,” said Robert Hajj, owner of a scooter center wrecked in the blast. “Each day’s delay is deteriorating our companies ... Our money is blocked in the banks.”

“They made us give up,” he said.

With little to no safety net, elderly like Toubaji are hit hard.

He has no pension, no social or medical insurance, so he and his wife, both over 70, had to keep working. Toubaji worked charging fees from people to get papers signed for them at the Finance Ministry, wading through the bureaucracy.

He was forced to stay home by the slump and the ensuing nationwide protests that began in October. His wife, a seamstress, is also virtually out of work.

They have been eating away at the 30 million Lebanese pounds in their bank account. Overnight in the financial crisis, their savings’ value dropped from $20,000 to just above $3,000. His wife had kept some dollars at home, away from the banks, but that went into fixing their windows.

“You know how much the meter of glass costs? $160,” Toubaji said.

If the ceiling is not fixed, rain will come in. Or worse — a few days ago brick from a neighbor’s damaged house hit his roof and knocked a chunk more of the broken ceiling down onto a sofa. His home’s main wooden door also remains damaged, its splintered shards glued back in place.

“I don’t have a leader that I follow to chase and secure money,” Toubaji said, referring to Lebanon’s sectarian-based patronage system that fills the place of the absent state.

When the blast happened, Toubaji fell on his face, and shattered glass covered his back. He now walks slowly, worried his knees cannot keep him up straight.

He said Lebanon, too, had fallen because of violence and conflict before and every time, it managed to stand up “and good people came to help.”

This time, he is not so sure.

Politicians “have robbed the country and the banks are broke. Who would help the country get up on its feet this time?”

AP Explains: US debt will soon exceed size of entire economy

By PAUL WISEMAN

1 of 3
FILE - In this April 29, 2020 file photo, a sign displaying the size of the national debt is displayed along an empty K Street in Washington. The Congressional Budget Office has warned that the government this year will run the largest budget deficit, as a share of the economy, since 1945, the year World War II ended. Next year, the federal debt — made up of the year-after-year gush of annual deficits — is forecast to exceed the size of the entire American economy for the first time since 1946. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)


WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. government’s war against the coronavirus is imposing the heaviest strain on the Treasury since America’s drive to defeat Nazi Germany and imperial Japan three-quarters of a century ago.

The Congressional Budget Office has warned that the government this year will run the largest budget deficit, as a share of the economy, since 1945, when World War II ended. Next year, the federal debt — the sum of the year-after-year gush of annual deficits — is forecast to exceed the size of the entire American economy for the first time since 1946. Within a few years, it’s on track to set a new high.

It might be surprising to hear that most economists consider the money well-spent — or at least necessary. Few think it’s wise to quibble with the amount of borrowing deemed necessary to sustain American households and businesses through the gravest public health crisis in more than 100 years. That’s especially true, economists say, when the government’s borrowing costs are super-low and investors still seem eager to buy its debt as fast as the Treasury issues it.

Here’s a closer look at the federal debt and the government’s use of it to combat the pandemic and the economic pain it’s inflicted.

JUST HOW MUCH MONEY ARE WE TALKING ABOUT?

The annual deficit — the gap between what the government spends and what it collects in taxes — will hit $3.3 trillion in the budget year that ends Sept. 30, the CBO projects. That amounts to 16% of America’s gross domestic product, which is the broadest measure of economic output. Not in 75 years has a deficit been that wide.

The federal debt, reflecting the accumulated deficits and the occasional surplus, is forecast to reach 100% of GDP next year. Then it is predicted to keep climbing to $24.5 trillion — 107% of GDP — in 2023. That would snap the record of 106% of GDP set in 1946. (The percentage does not include debts that the government agencies owe one another, including the Social Security trust fund.)

WHY IS THE BUDGET SO LOPSIDED?

The U.S. government was already deeply in debt even before the virus struck in March. The budget had absorbed the expenses of the 2007-2009 Great Recession, the federal benefits for the retirements of the vast baby boom generation and the cost of President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cut. Last year, the debt burden reached 79% of GDP, the highest share since 1948.

Then came the pandemic. The economy tumbled into a sickening free-fall as businesses shut down and millions of Americans hunkered down at home to avoid infection. GDP collapsed at a 31.7% annual rate from April through June, the worst three months on records dating to 1947. In March and April combined, employers slashed a record 22 million jobs

To help Americans to endure the crisis, Congress passed a $2 trillion relief bill in March. Among other things, the package sent Americans one-time checks of up to $1,200 and temporarily offered the unemployed $600 a week on top of their state jobless benefits.

Economists say that the rescue probably helped keep the economy from sinking into a depression but also that much more assistance is needed.

CAN THE U.S. REPAY ALL THAT MONEY?

After World War II, the United States paid down the federal debt with surprising speed. By 1961, the debt had dropped to 44% of GDP, the same level as in the prewar year of 1940.

Behind that success was a fast-growing economy that delivered rising revenue to the government and erased the debt. From 1947 through 1961 the economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate. The financial system was tightly regulated by the government. This allowed policymakers to keep interest rates artificially low and minimize the cost of repaying the debt.

Circumstances are somewhat different now. The economy doesn’t grow as fast as it did in the postwar boom years. Since 2010, GDP growth has averaged just 2.3%, even excluding this year’s economic implosion. And the government doesn’t control interest rates as it used to, not after the financial deregulation of the 1980s.

Still, the Federal Reserve is helping keep government borrowing rates ultra-low by buying up huge volumes of Treasury debt.

DOES THE DEBT CARRY ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES?

Economists have long warned that too much government borrowing risks hobbling the economy. When the government takes on excessive debt, the argument goes, it competes with businesses and consumers for loans, thereby forcing borrowing rates prohibitively high and imperiling growth.

Another concern is that investors will demand ever-higher interest rates for accepting the risk that governments could default on their debts.

Some economists and budget watchers still warn that a day of reckoning will come and that the United States will have to curb spending, raise taxes or both.

NO PROBLEMO THE GOVERNMENT PRINTS MONEY

But after the Great Recession, many economists began to rethink their view of debt. The recovery in the United States and especially in Europe was sluggish in part because policymakers were too reluctant to stimulate growth with debt.

In the United States, rates didn’t rise even though government debts were high. Investors, it turned out, had a near-insatiable appetite for U.S. Treasurys, still considered the world’s safest investment. Their rush to buy federal debt helped keep rates low and limited the government’s borrowing costs. So did persistently low inflation.

In such a low-rate, low-inflation environment, the risk of piling on more debt seems more manageable, at least for countries like the United States and Japan that borrow in their own currencies.

In a speech last year, Olivier Blanchard, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, declared:

“Put bluntly, public debt may have no fiscal cost ... The probability that the U.S. government can do a debt rollover, that it can issue debt and achieve a decreasing debt-to-GDP ratio without ever having to raise taxes later, is high.”

___

AP Economics Writer Martin Crutsinger contributed to this report.

THIRD WORLD USA
Child care crisis pushes US mothers out of the labor force

CHILDCARE IS A UNION ISSUE

By ALEXANDRA OLSON and CATHY BUSSEWITZ

September 5, 2020


1 of 4

Anna Hamilton, 43, center, poses for a photograph with her sons, Henry, 6, left, and Adrian, 7, right, in their home on Monday, Aug. 24, 2020, in Decatur, Ga. Hamilton is taking leave from her job at a small investment firm where she has worked for 12 years so she can guide her children through remote schooling. Looking back, she sees how childcare responsibilities, doctor visits, school pick-ups, lining up babysitters, often fell on her as the parent with the more flexible job. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

NEW YORK (AP) — Angela Wynn had just launched her own project management business, hitting a career stride after years of struggle that began with earning an undergraduate degree as a single mother.

Then the coronavirus pandemic hit, forcing many schools to shift online. The now-married mother of five saw little choice but to give up her newly minted business to help three of her children cope with remote learning while her husband, the primary breadwinner, kept his job at a senior living center.

“To see all that come to fruition, I did it, but now it’s gone,” said Wynn, who has always been the main caretaker for her children, ages 1, 5, 11, 12 and 18. “But my priority is my kids and their education is everything.”
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Wynn’s story is becoming distressingly common. Research is increasingly pointing to a retreat of working mothers from the U.S. labor force as the pandemic leaves parents with few child care options and the added burden of navigating distance learning.

The trend threatens the financial stability of families in the near-term. In the long-term, the crisis could stall — if not reverse — decades of hard-fought gains by working women who are still far from achieving labor force parity with men.

Thousands of school districts are starting the school year with remote instruction, including most of the largest ones. At least half the country’s child care providers are closed and may not survive the crisis without financial help to cope with implementing safety standards and reduced enrollment. Negotiations for a bailout of the industry have stalled in Congress.

In August, the federal jobs reports showed that women in their prime-earning years — 25 to 54 — were dropping out of the work force more than other age groups. About 77% of women in that age group were working or looking for work in February, compared to 74.9% in August. The decline is most pronounced among Black women of that age range, whose participation rate is down 5 percentage points since February, compared to 4 percentage points for Hispanic women and 2 percentage points for white women.

Overall, the drop translates into 1.3 million women exiting the labor force since February.

“We think this reflects the growing child care crisis,” BNP Paribas economists Daniel Ahn and Steven Weinberg wrote in recent report. “It is hard to see this abating soon, and if anything could become worse as we move into fall.”

Few families can afford for mothers not to work indefinitely: Mothers are now are the equal, primary, or sole earners in 40% of U.S. families, up from 11% in 1960, according to federal labor figures. Women also comprise nearly half the U.S. labor force, making their inability to work a significant drag on the economy and hindering any recovery from the pandemic’s impact.

In Wynn’s case, she is working a part-time job to help pay the bills. Even so, the family is taking a financial hit, refinancing their home outside Nashville and starting a garden in their backyard to cut down on grocery bills.

Despite the leaps over the past decades, working women still entered the pandemic at a disadvantage. They are typically paid 82 cents for every dollar men earn, according to research by the National Women’s Law Center.

Among working mothers and fathers, the wage gap is even higher at 70 cents. The median household earnings for mothers in the U.S. is $42,000, compared to $60,000 for fathers. When left with no choice but to give up one income as child care options collapse, that wage gap incentivizes fathers to stay in the workforce and mothers to leave, or at least scale back.

“There is already a motherhood wage gap. In times of uncertainty and recession, you protect the primary earner,” said Liana Christin Landivar, a sociologist at the Maryland Population Research Center and author of the book, “Mothers at Work: Who Opts Out?”

That is bearing out in the numbers. More mothers than fathers have exited the labor force since the pandemic began, according to research published in August by Sage Journals, which analyzed data from the Current Population Survey. Between February and April, labor force participation fell 3.2% among mothers with children younger than 6, and 4.3% for those with children 6 to 12. Fathers of children under 12 also left the workforce, but at lower rates, said Landivar, who co-authored the report.

In a separate study, the same researchers found mothers are cutting back on working hours more than fathers. Mothers of children under 12 were working more than six fewer hours a week than fathers in April, compared to less than five fewer hours in February, according to the study, which looked at sub-sample of heterosexual married men and women from the CPS, a monthly survey of 60,000 households sponsored by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“We already knew there was a large gender inequality in the labor force, and the pandemic just makes this worse,” Landivar said.

For Anna Hamilton and her husband, juggling two careers while raising two children was always a bit of house of cards. The pandemic knocked it down, at least for now.

Hamilton, who lives in the Atlanta area, is taking indefinite leave from her job at a small investment firm, a job she stuck with for 12 years in part because it allowed her family to move twice so her husband could pursue his career as a cancer surgeon.

She has mixed feelings but one thing she knows is that working full-time while handling remote schooling last spring was unbearable.

“There was a lot yelling. I thought, ‘Let’s just admit what’s happening and maybe everyone will be happier,’” said Hamilton, 43, whose sons are 6 and 7. “I hope it’s not a career-ender.”

Concerned about attrition and loss of productivity, some companies are now rolling out generous benefits to help working parents cope with school and day care closures because of the pandemic. Microsoft is offering an extra 12 weeks of paid family leave for employees struggling with child care issues. Google added 14 more weeks.

Duolingo, the foreign language-learning app, is allowing parents to request reduced working hours with full pay and benefits.

“Our CEO has talked to other tech CEOs who said they’re starting to see attrition tick up, especially with female employees. They thought it had to do with the parenting load,” said Christine Rogers-Raetsch, vice president of people at Duolingo. “We set a directional goal for ourselves: Let’s not lose any parents during this.”

But most women don’t work for tech companies, and instead make up a majority of the country’s teachers, nurses, child care workers, social workers, librarians, bookkeepers, waitresses, cashiers and housekeepers, according to federal labor figures.

Mothers in particular are the majority of the country’s teachers, nurses and child care workers. Despite the progress over the past two years, 80% of U.S. private sector workers have no access to paid family leave, which is not mandated by federal law.

“When we leave it to employers, the vast majority of higher income workers get more coverage and low-income workers just don’t. This disproportionately affects women,” Landivar said.

The pandemic has particularly affected women who put their careers on the back burner with the expectation of ramping back up once their children reached school age.

With the youngest of her three children now 6 years old, Kate Albrecht Fidler had begun studying for certification as a human resources professional, hoping to jump-start a career she had largely put on hold.

But in April, the 49-year-old was furloughed from her part-time job at a hospital and now she’s once again looking for any flexible job she can get because she’ll have to shepherd her children through remote schooling in her rural town of Adams, New York.

“For women in their prime earning years, this is a complete disaster,” Albrecht Fidler said. “There’s no way to catch up.”

_____

AP Business Writer Chris Rugaber in Washington contributed to this story.

Summer of protest: Chance for change, but obstacles exposed

By COLLEEN LONG, KAT STAFFORD and R.J. RICOyesterday


1 of 8
FILE - In this June 1, 2020, file photo a demonstrator raises his fist during a protest over the death of George Floyd, in Anaheim, Calif. The three month stretch between the symbolic kickoff and close of America’s summer has both galvanized broad public support for the racial justice movement and exposed the obstacles to turning that support into concrete political and policy changes. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Memorial Day brought the death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police, prompting hundreds of thousands of Americans to take to the streets in protest. President Donald Trump called Floyd’s death a “disgrace” and momentum built around policing reform.

But by Labor Day, the prospects for federal legislation have evaporated. And Trump is seeking to leverage the violence that has erupted around some of the protests to scare white, suburban voters and encourage them to back his reelection campaign.

The three-month stretch between the symbolic kickoff and close of America’s summer has both galvanized broad public support for the racial justice movement and exposed the obstacles to turning that support into concrete political and policy changes. It has also clarified the choice for voters in the presidential race between Trump, who rarely mentions Floyd or other Black Americans killed by police anymore, and Democrat Joe Biden, who argues that the summer of protests can become a catalyst for tackling systemic racism.

Polls show Biden has an advantage among Americans when it comes to which candidate can manage the country better through the protests. An ABC News/Ipsos poll out Friday showed that 55% of Americans believe Trump is aggravating the situation. When it comes to reducing violence, Americans favor Biden to Trump, 59% to 39%.

“No matter what he says or what he claims, you are not safer in Donald Trump’s America,” Biden said Friday.

Yet Trump’s campaign also sees an opportunity to appeal to some voters who may be turned off by scenes of violence cropping up around some of the protests, including in Kenosha, Wisconsin, where police shot Jacob Blake, a Black man, seven times last month. The president has openly directed his appeals at the “suburban housewives of America” — especially white housewives — casting his reelection as the only thing preventing violence in cities from spilling into their neighborhoods.

Trump traveled to Kenosha this past week, thanked law enforcement for their efforts and met with people whose businesses were destroyed in fires. He did not meet with Blake’s family. Biden did, on Thursday, while on a visit to the city.
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A Marquette University Law School poll that came out before the Aug. 23 shooting showed that support for the protests had slipped from 61% in June to 48% in August among voters in Wisconsin, one of the most crucial states in the November election. Among white Wisconsinites, approval of the protests dipped from 59% in June to 45% in August. Approval increased slightly for Black voters, to 78% from 77%. While approval fell among members of both parties, the dip was larger among Republicans.

“I think that there was a lot of optimism surrounding the protests this summer in the wake of George Floyd because for the first time, we were starting to see all of these white people in the United States pay a great deal of attention to police brutality and racial injustice,” said Ashley Jardina, assistant professor of political science at Duke University, and author of the book “White Identity Politics.”

“But white Americans have always had a low tolerance for protests and unrest around race in the U.S., and that’s particularly true when they think that protests become violent or involve the destruction of property,” Jardina added.

The majority of racial justice protests have been peaceful. But some, including in Kenosha and Minneapolis, saw vandalism and violence. Federal officials have arrested more than 300 people since the demonstrations began. A Trump supporter is charged with homicide in the shooting deaths of two protesters in Kenosha, and an anti-fascist shot and killed a right-wing protester in Portland, Oregon, and was later killed during his arrest by law enforcement.

Trump has also tried to link the protests to local increases in shootings, murders and other crimes in cities, including Kansas City, Missouri, Detroit, Chicago and New York, even though criminal justice experts say the spike defies easy explanation in a year with historic unemployment and a pandemic that has killed more than 180,000 people. Crime overall remains lower than it has been in years past and criminologists also caution against a focus on crime statistics over a short time frame, such as week-to-week or month-to-month.

Dan Cooper, a white 51-year-old software engineer in Portland, remains supportive of the protests and the Black Lives Matter movement but fears the vandalism is “playing into the right’s hands.”

“It makes Portland look bad and it makes it easy for the right to portray the city as being fundamentally lawless when in reality it’s this tiny area downtown that’s mostly peaceful otherwise,” he said.

“A few months ago they started off in a more BLM-focused way. It does seem like they’ve lost their way a little bit,” Cooper said of the protests.

Steve DeFeo, a white 49-year-old manager at an insurance company in Edgewater, Florida, shares that concern. He said that while he supports the protests and the Black Lives Matter movement, he worries that violent protesters allow others to inaccurately portray the movement as dangerous.

“That message gets amplified when you go out and spray-paint and throw rocks and light fires,” he said. “When you see a burnt building, that is helping the wrong side of the narrative. It’s not as effective for the BLM movement and keeping their message for what it should be.”

National Black Lives Matter organizers have never asked for, encouraged or condoned looting or fighting with law enforcement or police supporters on the streets, because they are protesting the violent harm done to their communities.

Thenjiwe McHarris, a strategist with the Movement for Black Lives, a coalition of more than 150 organizations, said Trump’s effort was a “desperate tactic to paint our movement a particular kind of way to stoke fear in communities across the country and to try to steal this election.”

“What does it mean for the president of the United States to call the movement violent and dangerous and chaotic? It means that he’s putting a target and a bull’s-eye on thousands and thousands, perhaps even hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people, who are courageous and bold enough to say that Black lives matter.”

Leaders say the movement isn’t losing steam and the coalition has only begun to move toward its next phase of advocacy and grassroots work, and the majority of people support it “because they understand that what’s happening to Black people is such a grave injustice,” McHarris said.

Federal police reform stalled on Capitol Hill after an initial burst of movement. Nationwide, since late May, there have been at least 450 pieces of policing reform proposals introduced in 31 states, according to a count by the National Conference of State Legislatures. Many states had finished their normal legislative session at the time of Floyd’s death and are planning to address police accountability next year.

Meanwhile, some within the movement have grown frustrated with what they see as outsize attention on the violence — even those accused of endorsing that violence.

“You think people want to go out and destroy property? Absolutely not,” said Hawk Newsome, a New York activist whose comments about protest violence on Fox News prompted a tweet from Trump. “This is a last resort. People just got so frustrated at a lack of progress, lack of clarity, lack of transparency, lack of truth.”

Newsome said the way to keep the movement going forward is to educate people about white supremacy and systemic racism and how both are knit into the fabric of America and must be unraveled in order to progress. But that’s not easy to talk about in a sound bite, and Newsome blames both Democrats and Republicans for a lack of nuance and accountability.

Breanna Wright, 24, of Louisville, Kentucky, participated in more than 20 demonstrations in her hometown, where Breonna Taylor, a Black woman, was killed by police in March. Wright says she remains focused on turning the protests into action.

“Everyone is putting Black Lives Matter on the street, Black Lives Matter in their windows,” she said. “That changes nothing for me because next week they’ll murder me on your Black Lives Matter decorated street.”

“I mean, it’s cute, you’ve tried -- thank you! It’s touching that you’ve done that! -- but the system has to change.”

___

Stafford reported from Detroit and Rico from Atlanta. Associated Press writer Emily Swanson contributed to this report.

UPDATED

100,000 march in Minsk to demand Belarus leader resigns

By YURAS KARMANAU today


Belarusian opposition supporters with old Belarusian national flags gather toward the Independence Palace, the residential of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk, Belarus, Sunday, Sept. 6, 2020. Sunday's demonstration marked the beginning of the fifth week of daily protests calling for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's resignation in the wake of allegedly manipulated elections. (AP Photo/TUT.by)

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Tens of thousands of demonstrators marched Sunday to the outskirts of the presidential residence in the capital of Belarus, calling for the country’s authoritarian leader to resign as protests against President Alexander Lukashenko entered their fifth week.

Protests also took place in major cities throughout Belarus, said Interior Ministry spokeswoman Olga Chemodanova. Crowd sizes for those protests were not immediately reported, but Ales Bialiatski, head of the Viasna human rights organization, said the demonstration in Minsk attracted more than 100,000 people.

The protests, unprecedented in Belarus for their size and duration, began after the Aug. 9 presidential vote that election officials said gave Lukashenko a sixth term in office with 80% support. Protesters say the results were rigged, and some have explained to Associated Press journalists exactly how the fraud took place in their districts.

Lukashenko has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1994, regularly repressing dissent and press freedom.

Police violently cracked down on demonstrators in the first days of the protests, arresting some 7,000 people and beating hundreds. Although they have scaled back, detentions continue; Viasna reported scores of people were arrested in Minsk and in the city of Grodno on Sunday.

Police and army troops blocked off the center of Minsk on Sunday, but demonstrators marched to the outskirts of the Palace of Independence, the president’s working residence 3 kilometers (2 miles) outside the city center. The palace grounds were blocked off by phalanxes of shield-bearing riot police and water cannon.

“This sea of ​​people cannot be stopped by military equipment, water cannons, propaganda and arrests. Most Belarusians want a peaceful change of power and we will not get tired of demanding this,“said Maria Kolesnikova, a leader of the Coordination Council set up by the opposition to try to arrange a dialogue with the 66-year-old Lukashenko about a transition of power.

She spoke with The Associated Press by telephone.

Lukashenko has rejected any discussion with the council and some of its top members have been jailed. One of them, Olga Kovalova, was expelled from the country over the weekend, driven to Poland by police.

Despite the stalemate between Lukashenko and the opposition, protesters say they are determined not to tire. Some of the placards they carried Sunday showed a lively sense of humor.

“Lukashenka, start building a house near Yanukovych,”read one, referring to former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych who fled to Russia in 2014 after months of anti-government protests.

“The collective farm went bankrupt,”said another, evoking Lukashenko’s former position as a collective farm director and his retention of largely state-controlled Soviet-style economy for Belarus, an Eastern European nation of 9.5 million.

Authorities also have revoked the accreditation of many Belarusian journalists and deported some foreign journalists, including two Moscow-based Associated Press journalists. AP’s Belarusian journalists were among those told their press credentials had been revoked.

—-

Jim Heintz in Moscow contributed to this report.

___

Follow all AP stories about the developments in Belarus at https://apnews.com/Belarus.

Tens of thousands attend Belarus protest against Lukashenko

Issued on: 06/09/2020 - 16:34

A participant gestures in front of barriers erected by Belarusian law enforcement officers during an opposition rally to protest against police brutality and to reject the presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus on September 6, 2020. © REUTERS/TUT.BY

Text by:FRANCE 24

Video by:Gulliver CRAGG
AT THE END OF THE ARTICLE

At least tens of thousands and possibly more Belarusian protesters staged a peaceful new march on Sunday, keeping the pressure on strongman Alexander Lukashenko who has refused to quit after his disputed re-election, turning instead to Russia for help to stay in power.

Troops, water cannon, armoured personnel carriers and armoured reconnaissance vehicles were deployed to the centre of Minsk ahead of the march and several metro stations were closed. The Belarusian authorities detained at least 100 protesters on Sunday across the country, Russia's Interfax news agency reported, citing the Belarus's interior ministry.




But protesters from all walks of life, from parents with children to students and from Catholic priests to prominent athletes, came out onto the streets in a show of defiance, an AFP correspondent reported from the scene.

Many held red-and-white flags and placards while a band beat drums and played other instruments. Some demonstrators danced or walked on stilts.

LGBT activists react together, with an old Belarusian national flag, in front of a police barricade blocking a street during an opposition rally to protest the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus, Sunday, Sept. 6, 2020. Sunday's demonstration marked the beginning of the fifth week of daily protests calling for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's resignation in the wake of allegedly manipulated elections. (AP Photo/TUT.by)

Unprecedented protests broke out after Lukashenko, who has ruled the ex-Soviet state for 26 years, claimed re-election with 80 percent of the vote on August 9.

Opposition rival Svetlana Tikhanovskaya says she won the vote but Lukashenko's security forces have detained thousands of protesters, many of whom accused police of beatings and torture. Several people have died in the crackdown.

Tikhanovskaya left Belarus under pressure from authorities and took shelter in EU member Lithuania.

'Honest elections'

Belarusians have been demonstrating across the country for nearly a month even though the protest movement lacks a clear leader, with many activists jailed or forced out of the country.

On Sunday, the protesters marched towards Lukashenko's residence at the Independence Palace where they chanted "Tribunal" and "How much are you getting paid?"

Some participants held impromptu picnics near security cordons and water cannon close to the Independence Palace.

"I am in favour of new honest elections," said 28-year-old protester Nikita Sazanovich.

One protester held a portrait of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny who Germany says has been poisoned with a Novichok nerve agent

"Please only live," said the placard, referring to President Vladimir Putin's top foe. Navalny has been in a coma for the past two weeks as his aides suspect he drank a cup of poisoned tea at a Siberian airport.

"Sasha, have some tea. It's Putin's treat," some protesters chanted, referring to Lukashenko by his diminutive name.

Many say they will keep taking to the streets until Lukashenko quits.

"Lukashenko must go," said Nikolai Dyatlov, a 32-year-old protester.

"Why is our legitimately elected president located in a different country?" he said, referring to 37-year-old Tikhanovskaya.

More than 100,000 people are estimated to have flooded into the streets of the capital Minsk over the past three weekends and AFP journalists said Sunday the crowd in Minsk was even larger.

"Remember we are strong as long as we are united," Tikhanovskaya told supporters in a short video address ahead of the "March of Unity."

Russia has said it will respond to any Western attempts to "sway the situation" and Putin has raised the possibility of sending military support.

'Tough nut'

Putin has been keen to unify Russia and Belarus, and Moscow has accompanied its recent offers of economic and military aid with calls for tighter integration.

Lukashenko has in the past ruled out outright unification and sought to play Moscow off against the West but his options now are limited.

On Thursday, Lukashenko hosted Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and said the two countries had managed to agree on issues they "could not agree earlier."




The mustachioed leader said he planned to "dot all the i's" with Putin in Moscow in the next few weeks.

Lukashenko made headlines this week when he claimed that his security forces had intercepted German calls showing that Navalny's poisoning had been faked.

Belarusian state television broadcast the "intercept" in which a Mike in Warsaw and Nick in Berlin discuss Navalny's materials and call Lukashenko a "tough nut to crack."

Lukashenko also raised eyebrows last month when he brandished an assault rifle and had his 16-year-old son Nikolai appear next to him in a bulletproof vest while also wielding a weapon.

(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS and

GOSSIP WAS OUR FIRST FORM OF STORYTELLING

Pope: Gossiping is “plague worse than COVID”

yesterday

   

VATICAN CITY (AP) — Pope Francis said Sunday that gossiping is a “plague worse than COVID” that is seeking to divide the Catholic Church.

Francis strayed from his prepared text to double down on his frequent complaint about gossiping within church communities and even within the Vatican bureaucracy. Francis didn’t give specifics during his weekly blessing, but went on at some length to say the devil is the “biggest gossiper” who is seeking to divide the church with his lies.

“Please brothers and sisters, let’s try to not gossip,” he said. “Gossip is a plague worse than COVID. Worse. Let’s make a big effort: No gossiping!”

Francis’ comments came as he elaborated on a Gospel passage about the need to correct others privately when they do something wrong. The Catholic hierarchy has long relied on this “fraternal correction” among priests and bishops to correct them when they err without airing problems in public.

Survivors of sexual abuse have said this form of private reprimand has allowed abuse to fester in the church and let both predator priests and superiors who covered up for them escape punishment.    

 GOSSIP

IS A MISOGYNISTIC PEJORATIVE FOR WOMEN'S TALK

1 of 4Pope Francis recites the Angelus noon prayer from his studio window overlooking St. Peter's Square, at the Vatican, Sunday, Sept. 6, 2020. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)