South China Morning Post
Mon, August 28, 2023
The first visit to China in four years by a Canadian cabinet minister could be the latest bid for improved ties, but chances of a major rapprochement are slim, while the risk of confrontation remains high, Chinese observers said.
On Monday, Canada's Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault joined Chinese and foreign officials, as well as representatives of the United Nations, during a three-day annual gathering in Beijing of the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED), a semi-official think tank Canada helped establish in 1992.
Guilbealt was also expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart Huang Runqiu in Beijing.
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The trip is the first visit by a Canadian government minister to China since 2019, when bilateral ties hit a low point following the arrest in Vancouver of Huawei's chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, on a US warrant in December 2018. Days later, two Canadian nationals - Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig - were detained in China on security and espionage charges.
It could be seen as the latest attempt by Beijing and Ottawa to find common ground amid strained relations.
"Climate change and biodiversity are the most important areas of cooperation between China and Canada today," said Huang Zhong, an associate researcher with the Centre for Canadian Studies at Guangdong University of Foreign Studies.
He noted that climate change was among the few areas where Canada had pledged to work with China in its Indo-Pacific strategy, which described China as an "increasingly disruptive global power".
"Cooperation in other areas between China and Canada has basically stagnated, and this is where the interests of the two countries converge more than anything else at the moment," Huang added.
Before his departure to the Chinese capital, Guilbeault told Reuters that there was potential for Canada and China to work together on climate change.
Both China and Canada are major emitters of greenhouse gas emissions, ranking first and 10th respectively among the main polluting countries, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2021.
"Maybe there are ways we can cooperate," said Guilbeault, who is a prominent figure in the fight against climate change. "I'm hoping that we can have open and frank conversations about a number of issues relating to climate change", he added.
Guilbeault's visit comes six weeks after Beijing and Washington agreed to resume collaboration on climate change - stalled for nearly a year amid geopolitical tensions - when John Kerry, US President Joe Biden's special envoy for climate change, visited Beijing.
Observers in China, however, were not optimistic about a breakthrough between Beijing and Ottawa.
The opposition Conservative Party has taken a hawkish approach toward China, saying it would be "difficult" for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government to seek a rapprochement with Beijing, according to Huang.
A recent poll showed that 61 per cent of respondents in Canada said the country should reduce its trade with China, its second largest trading partner after the United States. Only 20 per cent of respondents said Ottawa was doing either a very good, or good job of managing Chinese ties, a drop of 12 points since 2019, according to a Nanos Research Group survey for Bloomberg News in December.
In the latest blow to bilateral ties, the two countries exchanged tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats in May, when Canada accused China of targeting Conservative lawmaker Michael Chong's family in Hong Kong and declared Chinese diplomat Zhao Wei "persona non grata". In response, Beijing expelled Canada's consul in Shanghai.
"Under these circumstances, it is difficult to expect the Trudeau government to do much to improve its policy towards China, and we should not expect too much from Guilbeault's visit to China," said Huang.
He said ties between the two countries would continue "to be cold" and risks of confrontations "will still be high".
"In the long run, an improvement in China-Canada relations will still require new opportunities, for which representatives of both countries should be fully prepared, work pragmatically and wait patiently."
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