Sinwar’s assassination raises a series of questions about the future of the war in the Middle East, but is unlikely to satisfy Netanyahu’s drive for more conflict.
Claudia Cinatti
October 18, 2024
LEFT VOICE
LEFT VOICE
Photo: LID
Israel has finally succeeded in assassinating Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader who was at the top of the Israeli Defense Forces’ (IDF) target list and is considered the mastermind behind the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
This is a new tactical-military success for the Netanyahu government, which in recent months has accelerated its offensive against Hamas, Hezbollah, and other militias allied with Iran.
With the death of Sinwar — and before him Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated by Israel in Tehran last July — Hamas now has few, if any, leaders with sufficient authority and experience to lead the organization both in military resistance and in the political administration of the Gaza Strip, which has been reduced to rubble in the year since Israel’s genocidal war began.
This assassination is undoubtedly a turning point, but how this will affect the course of Israel’s war — now being waged on multiple fronts in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and soon Iran — remains uncertain.
While for the U.S. President Joe Biden, as well as other leaders of major powers including France’s Emmanuel Macron, it is a window of opportunity for Netanyahu to declare victory and offer conditions for the surrender of Hamas and the release of the hostages, the Israeli prime minister made it clear that in no way will Sinwar’s death put an end to the war in Gaza.
Biden’s urgency in trying to end the genocidal war in Gaza is, of course, tied to his party’s hopes to win the U.S. election in November. The genocide in Gaza has been an albatross around the neck of the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who is facing right-wing attacks by Trump and Zionist sectors that accuse her of trying to contain or limit the power of the State of Israel. But she is also being attacked from the Left by broad sectors of the youth and the Arab-Muslim community, which could cost her the state of Michigan, and maybe the presidency.
Netanyahu’s warlike persistence is also explained by his own political calculations. With his trained nose, he senses that the successes he has achieved in the last month could mean his survival at the head of the government until the end of his term. And above all, he must wait at least until November 6, when it will be known who will occupy the White House for the next four years, provided that the crisis of the 2020 elections is not repeated — as tragedy or as farce.
But the disappearance of Sinwar or Nasrallah from the scene — as has happened before with other leaders eliminated by the State of Israel — is unlikely to reverse the trend towards regional war, or more precisely, towards direct confrontation between Iran and Israel and the United States. Not only has Israel temporarily shifted its center of gravity towards Lebanon, but the dynamic of the situation is leading to increased U.S. involvement in the conflict, despite Joe Biden’s manifest desire to avoid seeing American imperialism involved in a new war in the Middle East. In just two days, the White House authorized the bombing of Houthi positions in Yemen and the deployment of their missile defense system in Israel along with the dispatch of some 100 troops to operate it.
The region is now in a state of waiting as Israel contemplates its response to the 180 missiles launched by Iran earlier this month. The U.S. government is trying to impose some restrictions on Netanyahu, for example, by telling him he cannot attack Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, which would have an almost immediate impact on the international situation as a whole. But Biden is not only a lame duck. The absolutely central nature of the strategic alliance with Israel, and the very hegemonic decline of the United States, limits his ability to persuade Netanyahu to proceed with more caution. Meanwhile, Netanyahu hopes that a possible Donald Trump presidency will be even more favorable to his colonial interests and facilitate his strategy of establishing a “Greater Israel,” by annexing even more occupied territories and forcing the expulsion of the Palestinian population from Gaza and the West Bank.
But this “final solution” openly proclaimed by his far-right government of settlers and religious parties, is precisely what fuels the Palestinian resistance and international solidarity that has been expressed on the campuses and streets of London, Paris and New York.
This article was originally published in Spanish on La Izquierda Diario on October 17, 2024.
Translated by James Dennis Hoff
Claudia Cinatti
Claudia is an editor of our sister site La Izquierda Diario and a leading member of the Party of Socialist Workers (PTS) in Argentina.
Israel has finally succeeded in assassinating Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader who was at the top of the Israeli Defense Forces’ (IDF) target list and is considered the mastermind behind the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
This is a new tactical-military success for the Netanyahu government, which in recent months has accelerated its offensive against Hamas, Hezbollah, and other militias allied with Iran.
With the death of Sinwar — and before him Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated by Israel in Tehran last July — Hamas now has few, if any, leaders with sufficient authority and experience to lead the organization both in military resistance and in the political administration of the Gaza Strip, which has been reduced to rubble in the year since Israel’s genocidal war began.
This assassination is undoubtedly a turning point, but how this will affect the course of Israel’s war — now being waged on multiple fronts in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and soon Iran — remains uncertain.
While for the U.S. President Joe Biden, as well as other leaders of major powers including France’s Emmanuel Macron, it is a window of opportunity for Netanyahu to declare victory and offer conditions for the surrender of Hamas and the release of the hostages, the Israeli prime minister made it clear that in no way will Sinwar’s death put an end to the war in Gaza.
Biden’s urgency in trying to end the genocidal war in Gaza is, of course, tied to his party’s hopes to win the U.S. election in November. The genocide in Gaza has been an albatross around the neck of the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who is facing right-wing attacks by Trump and Zionist sectors that accuse her of trying to contain or limit the power of the State of Israel. But she is also being attacked from the Left by broad sectors of the youth and the Arab-Muslim community, which could cost her the state of Michigan, and maybe the presidency.
Netanyahu’s warlike persistence is also explained by his own political calculations. With his trained nose, he senses that the successes he has achieved in the last month could mean his survival at the head of the government until the end of his term. And above all, he must wait at least until November 6, when it will be known who will occupy the White House for the next four years, provided that the crisis of the 2020 elections is not repeated — as tragedy or as farce.
But the disappearance of Sinwar or Nasrallah from the scene — as has happened before with other leaders eliminated by the State of Israel — is unlikely to reverse the trend towards regional war, or more precisely, towards direct confrontation between Iran and Israel and the United States. Not only has Israel temporarily shifted its center of gravity towards Lebanon, but the dynamic of the situation is leading to increased U.S. involvement in the conflict, despite Joe Biden’s manifest desire to avoid seeing American imperialism involved in a new war in the Middle East. In just two days, the White House authorized the bombing of Houthi positions in Yemen and the deployment of their missile defense system in Israel along with the dispatch of some 100 troops to operate it.
The region is now in a state of waiting as Israel contemplates its response to the 180 missiles launched by Iran earlier this month. The U.S. government is trying to impose some restrictions on Netanyahu, for example, by telling him he cannot attack Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, which would have an almost immediate impact on the international situation as a whole. But Biden is not only a lame duck. The absolutely central nature of the strategic alliance with Israel, and the very hegemonic decline of the United States, limits his ability to persuade Netanyahu to proceed with more caution. Meanwhile, Netanyahu hopes that a possible Donald Trump presidency will be even more favorable to his colonial interests and facilitate his strategy of establishing a “Greater Israel,” by annexing even more occupied territories and forcing the expulsion of the Palestinian population from Gaza and the West Bank.
But this “final solution” openly proclaimed by his far-right government of settlers and religious parties, is precisely what fuels the Palestinian resistance and international solidarity that has been expressed on the campuses and streets of London, Paris and New York.
This article was originally published in Spanish on La Izquierda Diario on October 17, 2024.
Translated by James Dennis Hoff
Claudia Cinatti
Claudia is an editor of our sister site La Izquierda Diario and a leading member of the Party of Socialist Workers (PTS) in Argentina.
No comments:
Post a Comment