The Biggest Losers

In the race to be the guy to replace Ralph. Lyle Oberg and Mark Norris.


FINAL RESULTS (courtesy The Invisble Hand)
11:45pm:
Dinning 29,470 (30.2%)
Morton 25,614 (26.2%)
Stelmach 14,967 (15.3%)
Oberg 11,638 (11.9%)
Hancock 7,595 (7.8%)
Norris 6,789 (6.9%)
Doerksen 873 (0.9%)
McPherson 744 (0.8%)
Total: 97,690



Lyle Oberg ran the race with all the self assured bravado of being in second place. That bravedo and confidence was a case of believing his own press.Unfortunately through out this campaign Oberg created nothing but bad press and on Saturday night the reality of that came through loud and clear.

As I write this, Lyle Oberg has finished fourth, and is off the final ballot. He was ashen, looking like a 10-year-old who has just discovered his bike was stolen. Edmonton Journal Legislature Reporter Graham Thompson

And all those PC memberships that the Building Trades bought for their membership to support Oberg added to his self delusion. And in the end made little difference as I predicted.

Mark Norris had lost his seat last provincial election not a great place to run from, especially when he had been a cabinet minister. And despite rallying the Edmonton Conservative business community, with constant propagandizing from his biggest cheerleader the Edmonton Sun, he actually came in behind the only Red Tory in the race, his fellow Edmontonian David Hancock. Like Oberg he believed his own press.

That makes Oberg and Norris the biggest losers.

While Stelmach came in third his numbers are so low he is neither a king maker nor a spoiler. He is however a rich widow that the two princes left in this race will come courting.Edmonton Journal Legislature Reporter Graham Thompson agrees with my initial assessment of Stelmach.

Some of the biggest cheers of the night came from Ed Stelmach's supporters, who were overjoyed their guy finished third and is on the second ballot. But third place is the booby prize. It's hard to imagine Stelmach bouncing back when he's so far behind.

But as usual with the Tories, some continue to live in their own fantasy worlds. Like Oberg and Norris did. Stelmach thinks he stands a chance on the third ballot, despite it obviously being a two way race between two conflicting ideologies in the party.Stelmach not quitting

Stelmach is no Third Way. And he should bow out gracefully.And for the good of the party endorse Dinning. Though frankly I have never been one to give one hoot for the good of the Party of Calgary. But that is the realpolitick that faces Stelmach and the other losers.

With a Morton win the old Reform party will consoldiate its rule in Edmonton and Ottawa. And woe to the party and Canada. If that happens, until the next provincial election, the other big losers will be you and I.

Morton's strong second-place showing could be seen as surprising for a rookie MLA who's never held a cabinet post and was only elected in 2004.However, the former senator-in-waiting has been thumping the war drums against the federal government for years on several fronts, and had deep roots to the former Reform and Canadian Alliance parties.He's also backed by many Alberta Tory MPs and has been using his network of supporters to build a political machine many analysts believe is only surpassed in size by Dinning's.

Though I personally believe it would be the best thing. A Morton led PC Party will be fractious and split, interncine power struggles between the progressives and the social conservatives will ensue. Causing Progressive Conservatives, liberals, centerists and Red Tories to abandon the party for the Alberta Liberals, their natural home. And with Taft purging the party of one if its most Red Liberals the outspoken trade unionist, Dan Black, he is preparing a home for them.

Peter Lougheed created the PC's as a popular front party of Liberals, Progressive Conservatives and the old Socreds. The later have morphed over the years into seperatists like the old Western Canada Concept, Republicans, Federal Reformers, social conservatives and fundamentalists. With Morton in charge it would be the final death of the last lingerings of the Lougheed era political party. Which is why he endorsed Dinning.

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Conservative Leadership Race

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Nigel Farage demands spot on BBC's Question Time live election debate

Farage was speaking after a youGov poll put Reform ahead of the Tories for the first time.

Stuart Henderson
Updated Fri, 14 June 2024 

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage at The Wellington, in central London, on Friday. (PA)


Nigel Farage has demanded a slot on the BBC's Question Time election debate next week.

The Reform UK leader told a press conference on Friday that one recent poll - which put his party just ahead of the Conservatives for the first time - meant he should share a platform on the BBC's four-way leaders' special on 20 June.

“I think we can demand of right now that the BBC put us into that debate,” he said. "I would also very much like to do a debate head-to-head with Keir Starmer and the reason’s very simple – we think this should be the immigration election.”


Farage also labelled himself “leader of the opposition” during the press conference, held in central London. He also predicted his party would get six million votes. That total would be significantly more than the 3.9 million votes his former party, Ukip, received under his leadership in 2015 when it secured 12.6% of the vote.

Read more: Will Nigel Farage's Reform UK 'beat' the Tories in the election?

The debate next week, hosted by Fiona Bruce, is currently scheduled to include representatives of the UK’s four largest parties: the Conservatives, Labour Party, SNP and Liberal Democrats.

The shock YouGov poll released on Thursday night showed support for Reform at 19%, just ahead of the Tories on 18%.


And while the results of the poll were certainly newsworthy, it is the only poll to date to have Reform ahead of Rishi Sunak's party.

According to the PA news agency, an average of all polls carried out wholly or partly during the seven days to 13 June puts Labour on 43%, 21 points ahead of the Conservatives on 22%, followed by Reform on 14%, the Lib Dems on 10% and the Greens on 6%.

(PA)

That means Reform’s average is up one percentage point on the previous week while the Tories are down one point.

And while Reform may be polling higher numbers than the Lib Dems, the UK's first-past-the-post voting system means it is highly unlikely Farage's party will get anywhere near the number of seats being targetted by Ed Davey.

The latest prediction based on opinion polls from 05 Jun 2024 to 13 Jun 2024, sampling 19,426 people. (Electoral Calculus)

According to polling experts Electoral Calculus, The Conservatives are projected to win between 42 and 236 seats, the Lib Dems between 34-77 seats, the SNP between 20-38 and Reform way back, with an expected one seat and a possible high of seven.

However, it is clear that Reform UK has continued the renewed momentum sparked when Farage announced he was taking over as leader and would stand for election in the Essex seat of Clacton on 4 June.

An 'utter disaster' for the Tories

The continued rise of the Reform UK is also marked it could potentially spell election disaster for the Conservatives, one of the UK's leading election experts warned in the wake of the YouGov poll.

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said Reform's growing support was a "real, real problem for the Conservatives" because nearly all the voters shifting their support were switching from those who had previously backed the Tories in 2019.

“Any chance the Conservatives ever had when they fired the starting gun on May 22 that they might be able to narrow Labour’s lead was predicated on them being able to win back those Reform voters.

“Their failure already to squeeze the Reform vote before Farage entered was itself bad news, and then Farage has boosted it further and made things even worse.

Prof Curtice said the average of recent polls shows backing for Reform at about 15% or 16%, was an “utter disaster for the Conservatives”.

Sunak insisted that voting for Reform UK would be “handing Labour a blank cheque” as he played down the YouGov survey.

But in Friday's press conference, Farage claimed his party was "well ahead" of the Conservatives in several regions including the North East, the North West, the East Midlands, in the West Midlands, as well as in the so-called red wall. Adding to this he said: "The inflection point means that, actually, if you vote Conservative in the red wall, you will almost certainly get Labour. A Conservative vote in the red wall is now a wasted vote."

Why Reform will struggle to win any seats – despite beating the Tories in the polls

Ollie Corfe

THE TELEGRAPH
Fri, 14 June 2024 




One week ago, Nigel Farage voiced his goal for Reform to overtake the Conservatives in the polls.

On Thursday, a YouGov poll said he had finally achieved it, surpassing the Tories by one point.

The poll has Reform on a national vote share of 19 points, with the Conservatives trailing on 18. Labour continues to be way ahead on 37 points.

It is important to note this is just one poll: across 12 pollsters’ latest polls, Reform are averaging on 14 per cent, compared to the Conservatives on 22 per cent.

Reform has seen a jump in support – around 3 to 4 per cent since the election was called.

Despite this, very few experts, including the party itself, predict it will secure more than a handful of seats.

This is because, unlike a party like the Liberal Democrats, support for Reform is spread evenly across the country rather than being concentrated in a small number of seats. So while it can score high in nationwide polls, it may not be able to secure enough support in individual seats to claim success – especially given the UK’s first past the post electoral system.
Are Reform on course to win seats in Parliament?

Speaking to BBC Breakfast on Friday, Mr Farage said: “Whatever we do, we may not get the number of seats we deserve, but are we going to win seats in Parliament? Yes.”

The latest YouGov MRP – which polls voting intention in each constituency, surveying some 50,000 people in total – conducted just before Mr Farage took control of the party, had the party on no seats whatsoever.

However, Mr Farage is clearly optimistic that the recent surge in the polls since his return to the helm of Reform will result in the party sending MPs to Westminster.

Hypothetically, Reform will need a much larger percentage of the vote than has been seen so far for his party to secure more than a couple of seats.
What constituency swing is needed?

This latest MRP, which uses modelling and constituency-level polling to predict individual seat outcomes, had Labour on 422 MPs to the Conservatives 140 MPs.

On average, across all the seats, Reform secured 10.2 per cent of the vote share in the survey. This left it in second place in 27 seats, but the winner in none.

In a situation where, uniformly across all seats, each vote gained by Reform was stolen solely from the Conservatives, the party would need to see its share increase by 12 points before it started picking up seats.

This is because in the seats where Reform comes second, it is Labour that stands in the way, not the Conservatives and, even where it is in second, it is substantially behind the projected winner.

For example, YouGov’s MRP has support for Reform at its strongest in Barnsley North, at 23 per cent to the Tories’ 7 per cent. If every Conservative voter abandoned the party and threw their weight behind Reform, its share would rise to 30 per cent. It would still lose to Labour, polling there at 48 per cent.

If there was a uniform 12-point swing to Reform in every seat from current polling levels, Reform would return three MPs: Mr Farage in Clacton, Richard Tice in Boston and Skegness and a third in New Forest East.

It would not be until a 15-point swing from the Tories to Reform that it would secure over 10 seats. And a massive 19-point swing would be needed to get them above the Lib Dems, in which case the Conservative party would be left without a single seat.

In a second scenario, where for every two votes Reform steals from the Conservatives, it takes one from Labour, Reform getting an MP elected is more within reach.

In this scenario, Reform gets its first and only seat with an 11-point swing. Interestingly, its first winner isn’t the party leader, but Garry Sutherland in Exmouth and Exeter East.

Lee Anderson would join the Reform victors with a 12-point swing, Mr Farage and Mr Tice after a 14-point swing, and a 17-point swing would see them become the second party on 81 seats.
Why is it so difficult?

The bar for becoming a major political party is incredibly high.

This is almost entirely explained by the first-past-the-post system, where parties are punished if their support is distributed widely instead of focused in a small number of seats.

For Reform voters, one point of contention will likely be that the Liberal Democrats, currently trailing them nationwide on 10 per cent of voting intention, are predicted by the YouGov MRP to secure 48 seats.

Crucially, this Liberal Democrat vote share is extremely focused in some areas.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to gain less than 10 per cent of the total vote share in around three quarters of seats across the country. Reform on the other hand is predicted to experience vote share this low in fewer than half of seats.

However, the Lib Dems could see shares of over 30 per cent in around 11 per cent of all seats. Reform is not expected to see this anywhere.

Effectively, this means that while Reform has a more uniform level of middling vote share across seats, the Liberal Democrats experience very high support and very low support.

This feeling is not unique to Reform.

The Greens could have its vote share triple this year and even become the second party with younger parties, but are still only projected to pick up Brighton Pavillion and – maybe – Bristol Central.

Reform UK: Where did party come from and what are its policies?

Sophie Wingate and Ian Jones, PA
Fri, 14 June 2024 

With a major poll showing Reform UK edging past the Conservatives for the first time, Nigel Farage’s party has the potential to blow up the General Election.

Here the PA news agency answers some key questions on the party.

– Where did Reform UK come from?

It was formed in 2021 as a relaunch of Mr Farage’s previous project, the Brexit Party, which had in turn been founded from the remnants of Ukip.




Mr Farage helped found Ukip in the 1990s, which in later decades ate away at Tory support and proved instrumental in paving the way for the in-out referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU.

In the aftermath of Brexit, Mr Farage announced he was quitting for a third time as Ukip leader. As the party descended into infighting, amid claims of a sharp turn to the right, he dramatically announced he was returning to the political front line with the formation of the new Brexit Party.

Mr Farage and Richard Tice in 2020 announced the Brexit Party would be renamed Reform as they railed against Covid-19 lockdowns. Unusually, it was set up as an “entrepreneurial political start-up”, with Mr Farage the company’s majority shareholder and honorary president.

Reform remained relatively unknown until recently, despite a major boost with the defection of Tory party deputy chairman Lee Anderson earlier this year.

Lee Anderson defected to Reform while he was the MP for Ashfield (Dominic Lipinski/PA)

Mr Anderson became the party’s first MP following his suspension from the Conservative Party over comments he made about London Mayor Sadiq Khan.

– What happened when the General Election was called?

After Rishi Sunak called the General Election, Mr Farage at first announced he would not stand as a Reform UK candidate, saying he would support his party from the sidelines while focusing on getting Donald Trump re-elected as US president.

But less than two weeks later, he performed a screeching U-turn. Not only would he seek to become the MP for Clacton, but he would do so as leader of Reform UK, replacing former businessman and MEP Mr Tice in the role.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage holding a McDonald’s banana milkshake after one was thrown at him in Essex (James Manning/PA)

Mr Farage, who has failed in his previous seven attempts to be elected to the Commons, said his decision was motivated by a “terrible sense of guilt” towards his supporters as he vowed to lead a “political revolt”.

His takeover came as a huge blow to Mr Sunak’s already faltering campaign, heightening Tory fears that Reform could snatch voters from the right.

Following the veteran Eurosceptic’s decision to stand, celebrated with great fanfare by party backers in the Essex seat he is hoping to win, Reform began to climb in the polls.



– What are Reform’s policies?

The party will fight the election on immigration, pledging an “employer immigration tax” on companies that choose to employ overseas workers instead of British citizens.

This would see businesses paying a national insurance “premium” of 20% of an employee’s salary, as opposed to 13.8%, if the worker is from overseas.

The party has vowed to freeze lawful immigration with the exception of healthcare and leave the European Convention on Human Rights.

On the economy, Reform has set out an ambition to slash £91 billion off public spending by stopping the Bank of England paying interest on quantitative easing reserves and finding £50 billion of wasteful spending in Whitehall.

It has promised there would be no tax on earnings under £20,000 a year.

Reform has also said it would abolish the Government’s net zero targets and “stand up for British culture, identity and values”.

The party is set to unveil its full manifesto on Monday June 17.



– How have Reform’s poll ratings changed since the campaign began?

On the day Mr Sunak called the election, Reform was averaging 11% in the opinion polls.

The party remained around this level until the first week of June, when – a few days after Mr Farage announced he was standing as a candidate – its average poll rating began to climb and currently stands at 15%, six points behind the Conservatives’ average of 21%.

While most polls published in the past two weeks show a clear rise in support for Reform, there is no agreement among them over how the party is faring in relation to the Conservatives.

Only one poll so far has put Reform ahead of the Tories. The YouGov poll put Reform at 19% to the Tories’ 18% in voting intention, although pollsters caveated that Reform’s lead is within the margin of error.

Five other polls have been published in the past 24 hours, all of which show Reform trailing the Conservatives between one percentage point (Redfield & Wilton) and 12 points (More in Common).

– So what are Reform’s chances in the election?

Mr Farage has been bullish about Reform’s chances, expressing hope the party can “get through the electoral threshold” while declining to put a target on the number of seats he believes it could win.

But the first-past-the-post electoral system means the party could gain millions of votes without taking a single constituency.

Nigel Farage and Richard Tice announcing their party’s economic policy (James Manning/PA)

Nonetheless, Reform could have a big impact on the result by taking votes away from the Conservatives and costing Tory candidates closely contested seats.

Mr Farage’s stated ambition is to engineer a reverse takeover of the Conservative Party to form a new centre-right grouping.

He has hinted at the possibility of striking an election deal with the Tories, although Mr Tice dismissed the comments as “banter”.

In 2019, the then-Brexit Party withdrew candidates in seats across the country in a bid to help then-Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson win.

What does Reform UK stand for? Their history and vision under Nigel Farage

Dominic Penna

THE TELEGRAPH
Fri, 14 June 2024 

Since rebranding itself in 2020, Reform UK has become a formidable force on the political scene

Founded in 2021 as a relaunch of the Brexit Party, Reform UK stands almost neck and neck with the Conservatives in the wake of Nigel Farage shock announcement that he will stand as an MP and the party’s leader.

They are on track to cost the Conservatives a significant proportion of voters from the political Right ahead of the looming general election on July 4, edging one point ahead of the Prime Minister’s party for the first time in the latest figures from YouGov.

Already, the party has faced pivotal change throughout their campaign with co-founder Mr Farage returning to front-line politics to lead a “political revolt” aimed at toppling the Conservative Party after replacing Richard Tice, a former businessman and MEP who has led the party since 2021.

His pledge came as a surprise to most given Mr Farage had previously ruled out standing in the general election in his first campaign speech on May 23, promising to support Mr Tice from the sidelines instead.

Reform gained its first MP in March after Lee Anderson, a former deputy chairman of the Tory Party, defected following his suspension over a row about Sadiq Khan.

Mr Tice and Mr Farage announced the Brexit Party would become Reform on Nov 1 2020 in an article for The Telegraph published at the start of the second Covid lockdown.

They used the joint article to declare “lockdowns don’t work” and instead advocated a policy of “focused protection” for the most vulnerable. They also called for sweeping reform of major institutions beyond the pandemic.

Reform stood candidates at the London Assembly, Scottish Parliament and Senedd elections in 2021. Though failing to pick up any seats, the party gathered just over 42,500 supporters across all three elections.

The same year it won two council seats in the local elections, both in Derby.

Reform UK polls

The party’s backing in the polls remained largely static throughout 2021, averaging around three percentage points, although it had risen to an average of 6 per cent by the end of 2022 amid growing public frustration with the Conservative Party in the wake of the deposition of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.


The party’s fortunes improved vastly during 2023 and the early months of 2024, with average support for Reform almost doubling from 6 per cent in January 2023 to 10.1 per cent at the start of March.

The rise of Reform can be attributed to a combination of the party’s policy offer and fortuitous circumstances.
Reform UK policies

On the economic front, it has promised sweeping cuts to levies including corporation tax and inheritance tax at a time when Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are overseeing the country’s highest tax burden since the Second World War, with a further peak projected later this decade.

Despite successive Conservative governments promising to cut immigration, net migration reached record levels in 2022 and previous Reform leader Mr Tice has cited this “betrayal” by the Tory government of its past manifesto pledges as a driving force behind his party’s success.

Research from the More in Common think tank in February 2022 found that immigration was the main reason 2019 Tory voters were defecting to Reform, with around one in five of those who backed Boris Johnson and his party at the last election expected to support Mr Farage.

Reform’s promises on border control include “net zero immigration”, leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) – a demand made by many Tory backbenchers, and a popular idea among the party’s grassroots – and declaring illegal immigration as a national security threat.

On May 30, the party announced plans to introduce a migrant tax that would force employers to pay a higher National Insurance (NI) rate on foreign workers.

Writing in The Telegraph, Mr Tice pledged a 20 per cent National Insurance rate for every foreign worker in comparison to the current 13.8 per cent for domestic British workers.

The party has also vowed to abolish the Government’s flagship net zero targets, claiming that the green push is doing more damage to the British economy than anything else.

There was a further bounce in support for Reform following Mr Sunak’s November reshuffle, in which Suella Braverman was sacked as Home Secretary over her criticism of pro-Palestinian protests, which she dubbed “hate marches”.

The same reshuffle took Westminster by surprise with the return of Lord Cameron as the new Foreign Secretary, a move that angered many on the Tory Right as the former prime minister is widely perceived to be on the liberal wing of the party.

Mr Tice told GB News at the time: “The truth is our server has almost exploded with fury at what’s happened today with the return of David Cameron. Let’s remember this is the gentleman who campaigned against Brexit, and almost everything he did on foreign policy was wrong.”

As a result of its outflanking of the Conservatives on the Right in many policy areas and channelling the disillusionment of traditional Tories with its rhetoric, the party may well have an even greater impact at the next general election than in 2019, when it stood aside from seats held by Mr Johnson’s Tory candidates.

Now commanding the support of around one in ten voters, the party could block Mr Sunak from winning in dozens of seats he may otherwise retain.

WORSE POLLING THAN BIDEN, OR TRUMP

Truss Should Resign as UK Prime Minister, More Than Half of Britons Say

CALL AN ELECTION

Alex Morales
Fri, September 30, 2022 
(Bloomberg) --

More than half of Britons think Liz Truss should quit as UK premier, according to a YouGov poll that adds to her woes less than a month into the job.

The survey on Friday underscores the damage done to Truss’s standing and that of her Conservative Party by the huge package of unfunded tax cuts her government unveiled a week ago, triggering a selloff in the pound and government bonds and leaving her party trailing the opposition Labour by a record distance.

Some 51% of almost 5,000 Britons surveyed said the prime minister should quit, with 54% saying Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng should resign.

Even in the face of a backlash from markets, Tory Members of Parliament and the electorate, Truss and Kwarteng so far have stood firm behind their fiscal package -- which benefitted the wealthiest more than lower earners -- insisting they’ll come forward with a medium-term plan for the economy and a set of independent economic forecasts on Nov. 23.

The beleaguered prime minister now heads into her Conservative Party’s annual conference on Sunday with the challenge of restoring her standing among her MPs and persuading the financial markets that the Tories still stand for the responsible management of the economy.

The YouGov poll also showed Truss is hemorrhaging support among those who voted Conservative in the last general election in 2019. Some 36% of Tory voters said Truss should go and 41% called for Kwarteng’s departure.

The latest survey piles the misery on the Tories after a YouGov poll of voting intentions on Thursday gave Labour a record 33-point lead.

SIR KEIR'S LUCKY DAY

UK's Labour has 33-pt lead over ruling Conservatives -YouGov poll

Britain's Labour Party annual conference in Liverpool

Thu, September 29, 2022 

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain's opposition Labour party has surged to a 33-point lead over the ruling Conservatives, according to a YouGov poll on Thursday, after days of chaos in financial markets triggered by the government's planned tax cuts.

The lead was a record high share for Labour in any YouGov poll as well as the highest figure the party has ever recorded in any published survey since the late 1990s, YouGov said.

Earlier on Thursday, British Prime Minister Liz Truss defended her controversial plan to reignite economic growth after huge tax cuts unveiled last week hammered the value of the pound and government bond prices.

The YouGov poll of voting intention conducted over Wednesday and Thursday showed 54% support for Labour and 21% for the Conservatives. It was a survey of more than 1,700 British adults.

Another YouGov poll earlier this week had shown 45% of voters backing Labour compared to 28% support for the Conservatives.

Truss took office on Sept. 6 after defeating former finance minister Rishi Sunak to win the Conservative Party's leadership contest. The next national election is likely to be held in 2024.

At least two Conservative lawmakers - both of whom had backed Sunak during the party leadership race - publicly criticised Truss's economic plans following the release of the poll.

"This is now a serious crisis with a lot at stake," Conservative lawmaker George Freeman said on Twitter. "The economic package of borrowing & tax cuts announced last week clearly can't command market or voter confidence."

Another lawmaker from Truss's party, Julian Smith, urged the government to reverse the abolition of the 45% top rate of income tax.

Three other polls on Thursday also showed large leads for Labour - Survation put Labour's lead over the Conservatives at 21 points; Deltapoll showed Labour 19 points ahead; and Redfield & Wilton Strategies had Labour 17 points ahead.

Opposition leader Keir Starmer said during his party's annual conference this week that it was Labour's best chance to win power since 2010, following four straight election defeats.

(Reporting by Sachin Ravikumar; editing by Michael Holden, Kirsten Donovan)

BUYERS REMORSE

Rishi Sunak would be a better PM than Liz Truss, say Tory voters


Nick Gutteridge
Fri, September 30, 2022

Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss - Dan Kitwood/Getty Images Europe

Conservative voters think Rishi Sunak would have made a better prime minister than Liz Truss, new polling for The Telegraph reveals.

The survey, on the eve of the Tory conference in Birmingham, shows just a third of those who backed the party in 2019 think she is a good leader.

Over half think she has made a bad incumbent in No 10 - almost as high as the number who would say the same about Sir Keir Starmer.

The results will lead to further soul-searching within the party about the decision by members to elect Ms Truss rather than the former chancellor.

Tory MPs in a mutinous mood over the fallout from the mini-Budget have discussed returning to a system where they pick the leader in future.

It has also emerged some rebel Conservatives are in talks with Labour over voting down her economic plan, especially the abolition of the 45p income tax rate.

After a dramatic week, Labour now holds a colossal lead on nine key criteria, including who the public trust more to manage the economy.

Amongst those who voted Conservative at the last election, a mere 34 per cent said they thought Ms Truss made a good Prime Minister.

That compares with 60 per cent for Boris Johnson, her predecessor, and 45 per cent for Mr Sunak, who she vanquished in the leadership race.

She fares even worse among the wider public, with only one in five thinking she is a good leader and 63 per cent calling her a bad one.
Sir Keir has positive rating

Mr Johnson and Mr Sunak both fare better with the electorate, scoring 31 per cent each, but by far the most choice is Sir Keir on 46 per cent.

The Labour leader is the only one with a positive net rating scoring +14, while Mr Sunak is on -21, Mr Johnson on -31 and Ms Truss on -43.

In a dire set of results for the Tories, the study shows how their reputation for competence has been shredded over the last 21 months.

The poll by JL Partners asked voters to rate the two main parties on nine key areas including the economy, NHS, and social equality.

It reveals in January 2020 the Conservatives held a commanding 22-point lead in terms of who the public thought was “best for the economy”.

That had halved to nine per cent by January of this year and has now been overhauled, with Labour sitting a comfortable 13 points ahead.

Ratings plummet

It is a similar story on who voters see as “competent and capable”, with the Tories slumping from a 20 per cent advantage to trailing by 13 points.

The Conservatives held a 15-point lead on which party would “move the country in the right direction” and are now 16 per cent behind Labour.

When it comes to who is “best for protecting and creating jobs” they have also plummeted from four per cent ahead to 19 points in arrears.

Meanwhile Sir Keir has widened the gap on who most shares voters’ values, is best for the NHS and will “stand up for people like me”.

In contrast, the number of people who see the Tories as “out of touch” has tripled to 37 points ahead since the start of 2020.

Back then Mr Johnson had just won a huge majority while Labour, led by Jeremy Corbyn, was seen as the most divided party by a 46-point margin.

But by January of this year the tables had reversed entirely, with the fallout from partygate seeing the Conservatives surge to a 21 per cent lead.
Electability ‘lost overnight’

The impression of the Tories as fractured has only grown since the ousting of the former prime minister and now stands at 27 per cent ahead.

James Johnson, who ran polling in Theresa May’s Number 10, said: “The drastic changes we are seeing in the fortunes of the Conservatives can be explained by this Telegraph poll.

“Labour now has a double-digit advantage on the economy, the first time it has led on this measure in this Parliament.

“And, since last month, the blame for economic woes has pivoted away from Russia and onto the Government itself.

“When the Conservatives lose their edge on the economy, they lose their electability overnight - and all signs are that we have seen exactly such a shift in the last few days.”

Half of voters want Truss to resign

Separate polling by the firm YouGov published on Friday afternoon painted an equally bleak picture for Ms Truss ahead of the conference.

It showed 51 per cent of Britons think the Prime Minister should resign, including 36 per cent of those who voted Conservative at the last election.

A third survey released by Stonehaven revealed Labour is now on course to win an outright majority at the next election.

The MRP poll - the same kind which correctly predicted the 2019 result - puts Sir Keir’s party on 332 seats and the Tories on 228.

Pandora Lefroy, the insight director at Stonehaven, said: “It has been a turbulent year for the Conservative party and that is being reflected in our election modelling which is showing, for the first time in 18 months, Labour having a path to an outright majority.

“A lot can change between now and the next General Election, but today we are seeing Red Wall voters are going back to their roots.

“Interestingly our data shows it is not their values that have changed, it’s simply that Labour is now seen as the party that best represents those values.”
Mini-budget not ‘executed competently’

Ms Truss faced a further backlash from angry Tory MPs on Friday with one grandee saying she has already lost the party at the next election.

Sir Charles Walker, a veteran backbencher, warned the Prime Minister she will face a “difficult time” getting the mini-Budget through Parliament.

He accused her and the Chancellor of “naivety” and “hubris” over the way it was announced, suggesting it was not “executed competently”.

“I don’t think I’ll be voting for these measures per se,” he told Times Radio when asked whether he was ready to rebel.

“I think the Government has learnt its lesson and will be amending them and doing some more thinking. If it doesn’t, it’s going to have a difficult time.”

Sir Charles warned that regardless the Tories have suffered a “cliff-edge collapse” and must start thinking about how to leave “some form of legacy” to Labour.

“I think it’s hard to construct an argument now that the Conservatives can win that general election. I suspect the conversation is how much do we lose it by?” he said.

Steve Double, a former environment minister, said he “can’t explain” the decision to axe the 45p tax rate to his constituents and Ms Truss “should reverse” it.

“At this particular moment, when so many households are facing huge pressures on their finances in the coming months…quite frankly I think it's a mistake,” he told BBC Cornwall.

The MP for St Austell said he won’t be attending this year’s conference, adding that he has “never known the party to be as divided as it is right now”.

THE UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE YEAR

Liz Truss admits £45bn mini-budget tax cuts did cause ‘disruption’

The Prime Minister has warned the country faces a “difficult winter” ahead.

George McMillan

SENIOR DIGITAL PRODUCER
PUBLISHED Saturday 01 October 2022 - 

Liz Truss has admitted Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget caused “disruption” but insisted they were right to act to get the economy moving and to protect families from soaring energy bills.

As Tories prepared to head to Birmingham for their annual conference, the Prime Minister warned the country faced a “difficult winter” ahead as she indicated she had no plans to reverse her tax-cutting agenda.

“I recognise there has been disruption but it was really, really important we were able to get help to families as soon as possible,” she said in a pooled interview with broadcasters on Friday.

“This is going to be a difficult winter and I am determined to do all I can to help families and help the economy at this time.”

Her comments came at the end of a tumultuous week which saw the pound slump to an all-time low against the dollar and the Bank of England forced to spend billions buying up government debt to prevent a collapse of the pensions industry.

The sell-off of sterling prompted fears that millions of mortgage holders could face crippling rises in their repayments as the Bank moves to ratchet up interest rates to shore up the currency and put a lid on inflation.

Prime Minister Liz Truss during a visit to the British Gas training academy Ian Vogler/Daily Mirror

The Chancellor insisted he will produce a “credible plan” to get the public finances back on track with a “commitment to spending discipline”. Owen Humphreys

The Chancellor insisted he will produce a “credible plan” to get the public finances back on track with a “commitment to spending discipline”.

“The British taxpayer expects their Government to work as efficiently and effectively as possible, and we will deliver on that expectation,” he said.

“Not all the measures we announced last week will be universally popular. But we had to do something different. We had no other choice.”

The turmoil erupted after markets took fright at Mr Kwarteng’s £45 billion package of unfunded tax cuts – the biggest in 50 years – while committing billions to capping energy bills for the next two years.

With the Tories tanking in the opinion polls – one showed Labour opening up a hitherto unthinkable 33-point lead – some Conservative MPs have been pressing for a change of course.

Despite having been in Downing Street for less than a month, some have questioned whether Ms Truss can now survive to the end of the year as the party has seen its reputation on the economy shredded.

The Prime Minister, however, insisted that Mr Kwarteng was right to cut taxes as part of their plan to drive up the UK’s sluggish rate of economic growth.

“What is important to me is that we get Britain’s economy back on track, that we keep taxes low, that we encourage investment into our country and that we get through these difficult times,” she said.

With some analysts warning of a squeeze on public spending to get debt under control, the Prime Minister again refused to commit to the annual uprating of benefits in line with inflation – something Rishi Sunak had promised to do when he was chancellor.

Pressed in her interview, Ms Truss said only that it was “something the Work and Pensions Secretary (Chloe Smith) is looking at”.

She added: “What is important to me is that we are fair in the decisions we make, but most importantly that we help families and businesses at this very difficult time with their energy prices.”

A key ally of the Prime Minister, Levelling Up Secretary Simon Clarke, however, went further suggesting the Government was looking to shrink the overall size of the state.

“I think it is important that we look at a state which is extremely large, and look at how we can make sure that it is in full alignment with a lower tax economy,” he told The Times.

Mr Kwarteng is due to publish a medium-term fiscal plan setting out how he intends to get debt falling as a proportion of GDP alongside an updated set of economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on November 23.

The absence of new projections from the independent OBR was seen as one of the key reasons why the markets reacted so badly to the Chancellor’s mini-budget.

Ian Vogler/Daily Mirror

Some Tory MPs have been pressing him to bring forward the date of publication so as to restore market confidence in the Government.

After a highly unusual meeting on Friday with both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor, the head of the OBR, Richard Hughes, confirmed they would deliver their preliminary forecasts to the Treasury at the end of next week.

However, Mr Kwarteng has made clear that he wants to stick to the November 23 date to allow ministers to set out a series of supply side reforms to support the growth plan.



Liz Truss can go from zero to hero if she holds her nerve, says Mark Dolan

They include changes to the financial sector regulations, immigration and the planning rules, with Mr Clarke hinting they could include changes to the green belt.

“The fact the green belt is larger today than it was when Margaret Thatcher came to power is an extraordinary state of affairs,” he said.

“We need to look at a planning system where we make sensible adjustments which don’t threaten communities and most fundamentally are about going with popular consent, and actually creating incentives that allow local areas to back growth.”

UK

Labour hold on to strongest poll lead for more than two decades

Ian Jones -Evening Standard - TODAY

Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer (right) and deputy leader Angela Rayner (2nd right)

 applauding at the end of the Labour party conference in Liverpool (Stefan Rousseau/PA)© PA Wire

Liz Truss has brought the Conservative Party conference to a close with Labour continuing to enjoy its strongest performance in the opinion polls for more than 20 years.

The Prime Minister delivered her speech on a day that saw the Tories’ average poll rating drop to just 24%, 26 percentage points behind Labour.

The last time Labour had a similarly sized lead over the Conservatives was in the summer of 2001.

A collection of polls published in the wake of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget on September 23 have all shown Labour extending its lead over the Tories, with one polling company putting the gap at 30 points (People Polling) and another at 33 points (YouGov).

These are the sorts of figures that would likely see a landslide Labour victory at a general election – were one to take place tomorrow, and were people to vote in the same way across the country.

Labour’s seven-day average poll share has climbed from 41% in the days just before the mini-budget to 50%, while the Tories have dropped 10 points from 34% to 24%, according to analysis by the PA news agency.

The Liberal Democrats have held steady on 10% while the Greens are currently on 5%.

Related video: Labour argues 'cavalry is coming' after 'reckless' Tory economic strategy

Duration 1:01 View on Watch

A separate poll carried out on October 3-4 of voters in 40 so-called ‘Red Wall’ seats – former Labour constituencies now held by the Conservatives – put Labour on 61% and the Tories on 23%, a 38-point lead.

This is up from a 15-point lead just before the mini-budget, according to data published by the polling company Redfield & Wilton.

The equivalent figures at the 2019 election for these 40 seats were 47% for the Tories and 38% for Labour.

Opinion polls are snapshots of the prevailing public mood, not projections or forecasts.

With the next general election still more than two years away – the latest possible date is January 23 2025 – there is plenty of time for the national numbers to change.

But polls both shape and reflect the prevailing mood of the country, in turn affecting morale among politicians and party members alike.

The news for the Conservatives is equally grim when looking at Liz Truss’s popularity scores.

The Prime Minister’s ratings are already lower than any recorded for either Boris Johnson or the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, according to a survey by YouGov carried out on October 1-2.

Ms Truss’s net favourability rating – the difference between the proportion of people saying they have a favourable opinion of her and those who have an unfavourable opinion – currently stands at minus 59 points.

This is lower than levels reached by both Mr Johnson, who hit minus 53 points in July of this year, and Mr Corbyn, who fell to minus 55 points in June 2019.

TORIES RED BAIT TRUDEAU (WHOSE PARTY COLOUR IS RED)

Trudeaus agreed to father's book being published by Chinese Communist-run company in 2005

FIDEL CASTRO WAS A PALLBERARER AT HIS FUNERAL

Tom Blackwell 4 days ago

It turns out a 2016 edition of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s memoirs was not his family’s first foray into Chinese state-run book publishing.

© Provided by National Post Pierre Trudeau and Jacques Hebert salute a monk in Buddhist fashion in China. From the book Two Innocents in Red China by Pierre Trudeau and Jacques Hebert.

In 2005, a Communist Party-affiliated company won the family’s approval — and a preface from brother Sacha Trudeau — for a Chinese-language edition of a book their father, former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, co-authored in the 1960s.

China experts differed Wednesday on why a publisher there would be interested in Two Innocents in Red China 50 years after the fact, suggesting it was either out of admiration for Pierre Trudeau — or to curry favour with his prominent sons.

Either way, said one scholar, it was likely subject to significant censorship.

Neither offspring had entered politics by 2005, but speculation had been bubbling since Pierre Trudeau’s death in 2000 that one of them would make the plunge. Justin Trudeau did three years later.

The offer to re-release the Two Innocents book by Pierre Trudeau and journalist-friend Jacques Hébert was likely an attempt to flatter two influential figures in Canadian affairs — an “insurance policy” in case one of them ran for office, says Guy Saint-Jacques, a former ambassador to Beijing.

“The approach is always the same: you make people feel special, you tell them they understand China and you pretend to give them special access,” he said. “Publishing books falls into that category because it gives face to the authors even if they cannot know for sure how many books are really sold.”

But a leading China specialist at the University of British Columbia said it’s doubtful the offer to translate and publish Pierre Trudeau’s 1960s book had anything to do with trying to influence the Trudeau sons.

It was more likely part of a common Chinese practice to issue versions of books on world leaders considered important or “empathetic” to China, said UBC Prof. Paul Evans. He said he’s seen tomes on Western heads of state from Angela Merkel to Margaret Thatcher in Chinese bookstores.

“(Pierre Trudeau) is the second best-known Canadian in China. The first is (doctor) Norman Bethune,” he said. “That they would want to publish his book in Chinese translation would not come to me as a surprise at all.”

In fact, the Canadian business world and many politicians were at that time eager to exploit the burgeoning Chinese market. Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper made repeated, trade-focused trips to China after his election in 2006.

A more pertinent issue, said Evans, is the fact that almost all books published in China, whether by state-owned companies or not, are subject to censorship that has only grown more severe in recent years.

He said he pulled a recent book of his own after censors in China said they would excise any reference to the Tiananmen Square massacre, Mao’s disastrous Great Leap Forward or human rights generally — about a third of the volume.

“It’s a murky and risky prospect,” said the professor.

The Liberal campaign was unable to respond to a request for comment by deadline.

The general issue came to the fore recently with a report that a Chinese version of Justin Trudeau’s memoir had been released in 2016 by a state-controlled publisher. Security advisors to the prime minister at the time told The Globe and Mail they would have discouraged the translation but, regardless, were never informed about it.

A decade earlier, Two Innocents in Red China — which recounted the trip Trudeau senior and Hébert took to the country in 1960 — was published by the Shanghai People’s Publishing House.

An online description of the company, originally set up by the propaganda department of the Shanghai branch of the Communists, says it has been at the forefront of producing “party-building” books.

In a 2016 interview with the Cable Public Affairs Channel (CPAC), Alexandre (Sacha) Trudeau said he had been approached by Chinese officials about reprinting his father’s book, and asked to write a preface for it.

He said he suggested visiting China before writing the introduction, and later the Chinese publisher encouraged him to pen his own book on his experiences. Sacha’s resulting title — Barbarian Lost — Travels in the new China — was published here in 2016 . A different publisher — not Shanghai People’s — released it in China in 2019.

The translation of Pierre Trudeau’s book was unlikely to have generated much if any income for the publisher after it paid for translation — and any advance fees the sons received, said Charles Burton, a former diplomat in Beijing and fellow with the Macdonald Laurier Institute.

“This kind of book by foreigners based on a short, carefully monitored tour of China do not sell well in the PRC as they are typically ridiculously misinformed and devoid of meaningful insight,” he said. “There are dozens of them gathering dust on state bookstore shelves all over China.”

Rather, the publishing deal would be designed to curry favour and “a sense of reciprocal obligation” with Justin Trudeau, Burton argued.

“This is highly consistent with the strategy and purposes of the Chinese Communist Party’s very well-resourced United Front Work Department.”

The Conservative Party — which has promised a tougher stance toward Beijing if elected — seized on the fact that Pierre Trudeau’s book was published in China 16 years ago as more evidence of a too-cozy relationship between the prime minister and the People’s Republic.

“It is extremely concerning that Justin Trudeau has been caught hiding a second secret book deal with the Chinese Communist Party,” said Tory candidate Michael Barrett. “If Justin Trudeau won’t tell Canadians about this secret relationship with the Chinese communists, how can Canadians trust him to stand up for Canadian interests when dealing with Beijing?”

Don't P.O. Garth

Harper did not fill his cabinet this week with all the ex-cabinet ministers he could have.

Several pundits who revel in this sort of thing, speculated he would pick for his first cabinet those with prior experience in cabinet, Federal or provincial. Harper was buidling a war cabinet one that would shore up the party in order to win a majority next election. This would be his one and only cabinet. So the optics were have experienced folks in the cabinet.

So how come Garth Turner got overlooked? He had been a cabinet minister in Kim Campbells short lived government. Was it because unlike the Calgary Gang he was a Red Tory? A Whig by any other name . Whigs and Tory's

So this week when he didn't get appointed to cabinet but a liberal and an unelected party hack did, well he spoke up.

Tories singing new tune on political floor-crossers after Emerson ...

Many Tories are grumbling privately about David Emerson's decision to become a Conservative and join cabinet just two weeks after he won election as a Liberal. Ontario MP Garth Turner said his constituents are concerned because he said during the campaign that MPs who switch parties should be forced to face byelections. Ontario MP Garth Turner was one of the few who spoke publicly about his unease with Emerson's move. On his web site, he posted a letter from a furious constituent.

"I am feeling incredibly betrayed by Stephen Harper," said the letter."This is more of the same crap that the Liberals have been serving out for 12 years and which made my blood boil."The lies, the deceit, the arrogance. I couldn't wait to vote those bastards out and vote in some integrity and honesty. But this! This is a betrayal of my confidence in Harper and the Conservative party."

Turner said he campaigned on the idea that MPs who switch parties should be forced to face byelections. And he still supports the idea.

''I think anyone who crosses the floor, ultimately, should go back to the people for ratification,'' Turner said.

There is an irony here in that Garth had been held the position of Minister of National Revenue, a position given to newcomer Carol Skelton. She too had been upset with floor crossing MP's in this case Belinda Stronach, and like the NDP she co-sponosored a bill to force a byelection on those MP's who crossed the floor. Today she is silent on David Emerson's doing the same, but joining her in cabinet.

Carol Skelton said just months ago she was sick to her stomach when Stronach defected to the Liberal.The Saskatchewan MP even introduced a parliamentary motion to restrict the practice of party-switching, but won't be bringing it back any time soon."That was last year," Skelton, now minister of national revenue, said yesterday. "We talked about it and I decided not to proceed with it. It's one of those matters that is debatable."Tory MPs change tune on party defectors

Very debatable, like the pay off made by Harper to her co-sponsor Helena Guergis, who became a parlimentary secretary and now like Carol has backed off the any idea of having a byelection for Emerson. Tories Bribe MPs for Silence

Other Tories who were howling for Stronachs resignation and demanding she run in a byelection last summer are now singing from the Harper songsheet.

Ontario MP Harold Albrecht appeared to be softening the position he advocated during the election. He campaigned on a promise to ensure floor-crossers face the electorate anew to confirm their switch in allegiances. "I expressed that, yeah. I would prefer that when someone crosses the floor they would have a byelection," he said Thursday. "But I want to talk to my colleagues about that."B.C.'s James Lunney, who supported a proposed law to force byelections after Stronach defected, now indicates he's not as supportive any more. Tories singing new tune on political floor-crossers after Emerson ...

So the party that campaigned on Free Votes less power to the Whip does what to Turner? Well they sick the Whip on him and call him to the principals office to give him a tongue lashing, Belinda remembers those well, and a dressing down by Mr. Harper. So much for Reform Party principles. Or Alliance. This is the new Conservative Party just like Daddies. They are here to win the next election, damn the torpedos full speed ahead.

So the apologists in Calgary pooh-pooh principles, not just the old tired ones from Preston Mannings day but the ones that got the party elected only a week ago. Ezra Le Rant was on Don Newmans Politics on CBC spinning the party line yesterday. Now if only Harper actually had a press spokesperson or a media plan then Ezras rant wouldn't have been neccasary.

So having been given a choice to shut up and toe the Harper line, not the party line the Great Leaders line. Garth rightly choose to uphold the party line over the Great Leader. Of course the followers of the Great Leader will denounce him as a Trotskyist roader and wrecker. To be expected from those whose are willing to sacrifice principles to gain power.

Choices

I have written here many times over the past few months about my journey to become an MP again, and why I wanted to return to Ottawa. It was not to be a minister with a limo, but, as I explained, to try and empower elected people more, to make them relevant and free, so the voters would also become more empowered. And I campaigned to advance issues my middle class voters are so concerned with – things those families need and want.

But, I arrived as the prime minister was appointing a floor-crossing Liberal and an unelected party official to his cabinet, which seemed to fly in the face of everything I had told voters about accountability and democracy. It also made me question the whole process, after eight months of knocking on doors to win my coveted seat in this magnificent stone building on the banks of the Rideau.

Sure, I thought the appointment of those two ministers was questionable. And after stating many a time that Belinda Stronach should have sought a by-election after her defection, how could I not say the same obvious thing now? It was simple for my constitutents to understand, and simple for me. I did not seek the microphones out, but when they were under my nose and a clear question was asked, I gave a clear answer.

Everybody who makes up the government should be elected. They should be elected as members of the party that forms the government. Anybody who switches parties should go back to the people. To do otherwise is to place politicians above the people when, actually, it’s the other way around.

But my comments were deemed not helpful, even though I chose them carefully and pulled some punches, suggesting Minister Emerson be given a little time before deciding on whether or not to get elected as a Tory.

Did I know the potential consequences of speaking my mind, or sticking with the principles that brought me to this cold hill? Yeah, I did. I have been an MP before, and a leadership candidate and a cabinet minister. I have the hide to prove it. I know the PMO has a song sheet it wants all caucus members to sing from, and I know what happens when an individual chooses to go his or her own way. I was just hoping this time I would not be asked to choose – between party and principle.

Mores of my blog articles on the Conservatives





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