Net Zero by 2050? This Decade's Fuel Choices Will Decide

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Published Apr 12, 2026 2:24 PM by Daniel Bischofberger

 

Green-hydrogen based synthetic fuels are stalled by a coordination problem across industries. Pooling demand and investment across sectors could unlock the production scale needed for shipping and other hard-to-abate industries, while strengthening energy security in the transition to net zero.

The debate over whether net zero is possible by 2050 may continue for years, while global emissions and temperatures continue to rise. But the question of green hydrogen’s role in achieving it has swung from hype to skepticism to a pragmatic center: shipping and several other hard-to-abate sectors need green hydrogen to reach net zero. Yet, the hydrogen itself remains elusive. Demand waits for supply. Supply waits for demand. It’s an ouroboros.

Technology ahead of fuel

Taking shipping as an example, the industry has innovated and invested in dual-fuel ships capable of running on both conventional fuels and synthetic ammonia or methanol – and these ships are already setting sail. Their engines are designed to use fuel as efficiently as possible: today to reduce emissions from fossil fuels, and in the future, to make the most efficient use of the more expensive synthetic ammonia and methanol.

The problem is that while ship technology ran ahead, the fuel front was stalling.

First, hydrogen fuel production is a massive undertaking: renewable energy, electrolysis, synthesis plants, storage, pipelines, and ports.

Second, the bill. To reach net zero by 2050, shipping alone will need 100 to 150 million tons of green hydrogen annually as feedstock, even at maximum efficiency across the sector. The hard-to-abate sectors together will need 500 to 600 million, an investment of $9 trillion.

So, just for the feedstock, shipping would need to fund $2 to 3 trillion upfront. Which sector can afford today to commit three trillion dollars for a fuel that will be ready in 5-10 years and require upfront purchase contracts of 10 to 15 years?

And yet, that’s the timeline: 25 years to 2050.

The snake eating its tail

Meanwhile, the collapse of hydrogen projects around the world proves that the challenge is more than isolated anomalies; it is systemic.

Underpinning shipping’s deadlocked fuel transition is a set of five tightly linked factors – fuel fragmentation, geography, finance, regulation, and port constraints, that reinforce each other.

First, fuels. In the absence of synthetic fuels, shipping is trying to juggle oil, diesel, liquefied natural gas, and biofuels. This hedging is rational, but it dilutes investment and prevents any single fuel from scaling. It would be comparable to an electric vehicle charging infrastructure with 12 different types of current, which thankfully isn’t the case, or there would probably be no electric vehicles.

Second: geography. Following the oil and gas model, hydrogen production is concentrated in a few nation-scale projects – some as large as half of Switzerland. For shipping, 80% of the global fleet operates on flexible routes. An early market that forces trade to reroute from 6,000 ports to a mere handful of fuel supply hubs will limit adoption. Aviation would face a similar challenge.

Third: finance. Shipping’s low-cost, low-margin business model is predicated on the universal availability of the cheapest fuel in the global mix. Synthetic fuel contracts overturn every precedent: expensive, long-term, limited.

Fourth: regulation. Shipping’s global regulation should be a strength. Global carbon pricing could level the playing field for the entire industry. However, that strength depends on a two-thirds vote from member states. With the onus on national governments and local producers to assemble subsidies, permits, materials, and financing, many are reticent to approve the carbon pricing that would force demand. Aviation faces a similar challenge.

Fifth: ports. Ports are already stretched for power, land, and trained operators. Most cannot justify investment in new bunkering systems without predictable supply and demand.

The ouroboros tightens, and every hard-to-abate sector faces some version of this deadlock loop.

Breaking the loop

There is one way to get the snake to release its tail: give it more to eat – with coordinated demand across sectors.

Both shipping and aviation giants have tried to make their own hydrogen and synthetic fuel supplies. Each industry has tried to pool demand within the industry. It hasn’t worked, because no single company or sector can carry the cost and scale of green hydrogen alone. The balance sheet requires multiple industries. Shared offtake produces contracts large enough to start building, and allows sequential planning. Shared risk makes early projects insurable, and shared infrastructure avoids duplication.

Competition across sectors is stalling production, but collaboration can enable it.

Chance or illusion?

The willingness to embrace cross-sector collaboration depends on whether fossil fuels are still regarded as the safer economic bet.

However, even the oil majors are beginning to question that assumption. Wood Mackenzie estimates that oil and gas production could fall nearly 40% by 2040 without hundreds of billions of dollars in new upstream investment. Oil companies therefore face the same dilemma as hydrogen producers: demand uncertainty is freezing investment on both sides of the energy transition.

In the Asia-Pacific region, that same uncertainty, combined with volatile fossil import supply, is accelerating the shift toward carbon-neutral energy security.

China made that decision before many others had even asked the question. It cornered the global market in critical mineral processing for clean technologies, overbuilt renewables that can now be converted into hydrogen and synthetic fuels, and scaled its shipbuilding industry within four decades. As with electric vehicles, China can absorb early fuel price differentials through subsidies and leverage its domestic market to drive costs down.

China’s integrated energy, industrial, and shipping policy is material to developing the cross-sector sequencing required to make the transition work. Despite its size, it is also bringing smaller, modular e-fuel facilities online faster and cheaper, with one unit producing over 300,000 tons of green ammonia per year, already on export to Asia Pacific and Europe.

In Japan, Korea, and Singapore, the focus is on imports. Utilities are committing to ammonia offtake under national energy strategies, allowing safety standards, terminals, and bunkering systems to develop ahead of shipping demand.

Meanwhile, the Chinese modular approach is already being exported to Brazil. Vast land availability and very low solar power costs give Brazil a strong advantage in exporting synthetic fuels, and the country is already developing the ports of Açu and Pecém as green hydrogen and e-fuel hubs for power generation, industry, and shipping.

Across these cases, the pattern is consistent: land-based sectors lead; investment, risk, infrastructure, and offtake are shared and publicly supported; shipping follows once the regulatory framework is in place.

The decade of decision

At a time when the global debate between reinvesting in fossil systems and accelerating a fossil-free future is hardening once again, which path is industry betting on?

Is net zero possible by 2050? That depends on the decisions taken in this decade. The trade-offs will be felt by the next generation, one way or the other.

The task for industry and institutions is to move beyond siloed efforts and coordinate demand, infrastructure and investment across sectors to build a secure, net-zero energy future.

Daniel Bischofberger is chief executive of Accelleron, a maker of turbochargers, fuel-injection systems and digital technologies for the energy and shipping industries.

 

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

Hormuz And Bab Al-Mandeb: The Geopolitics Of The Twin Maritime Chokepoints – Analy

File photo of Houthi rebels patrolling near a merchant ship in Red Sea. Photo Credit: Fars News Agency

April 14, 2026 
By Amb. Prof. Mohamed A. Qubaty

How two narrow waterways linking the Gulf and the Red Sea have become pivotal nodes of geoeconomic leverage in the global economy.

In the twenty-first century, global power is increasingly shaped not only by military capabilities but also by the ability to influence the flows of energy, trade, a

Hormuz And Bab Al-Mandeb: The Geopolitics Of The Twin Maritime Chokepoints – Analysisnd supply chains that sustain the world economy. Nowhere is this transformation more visible than in the strategic maritime corridors linking the Gulf and the Red Sea.

Much of that power is concentrated in a handful of narrow maritime passages where geography compresses global commerce into strategic bottlenecks. Among the most consequential of these are the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Together they form a geostrategic system whose importance extends far beyond the Middle East.

“In an interconnected global economy, the power to disrupt a maritime chokepoint may rival the power to control a battlefield.”

In an era of intensifying geoeconomic competition, maritime chokepoints are increasingly becoming instruments of geoeconomic leverage, allowing regional actors to influence global trade routes and energy flows with effects that can reverberate across continents.

The Changing Language Of Power

For much of the twentieth century, regional conflicts in the Middle East were framed primarily in military terms. Strategic competition was expressed through conventional warfare, territorial disputes, and military alliances.

Today, however, the language of strategic pressure has evolved. In an interconnected global economy, disruption of trade routes and energy flows can generate economic shockwaves far beyond the immediate theater of conflict.

Insurance premiums rise, shipping routes shift, freight costs increase, and energy markets react instantly to signals of instability. The economic consequences often extend across continents. In this context, the strategic value of maritime geography has risen dramatically.

The Bab Al-Mandab Strait and Strait of Hormuz

Hormuz: The World’s Energy Pressure Valve

For decades the Strait of Hormuz has occupied a central place in the architecture of global energy security. A significant share of the world’s traded oil and liquefied natural gas passes through this narrow corridor linking the Persian Gulf to international markets.


Even the mere possibility of disruptions in Hormuz has historically been sufficient to trigger volatility in oil prices. In this sense, Hormuz functions not only as a transit route but also as a geoeconomic pressure valve within the global energy system.
Bab Al-Mandeb: The Southern Gate Of The Rede Sea Economy

At the southern entrance to the Red Sea lies another critical chokepoint: Bab al-Mandeb. This narrow passage links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean, forming an essential segment of the maritime route connecting Asian manufacturing hubs with European markets via the Suez Canal.

The economic implications of disruptions in Bab al-Mandeb are therefore profound. Disturbances in this corridor can affect global container shipping networks, European energy supplies, trade flows between Asia and Europe, and insurance and freight markets.
The East-West Pipeline Paradox

Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure illustrates the strategic interdependence of these maritime chokepoints. In order to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, Riyadh constructed the East–West pipeline (Petroline), transporting crude oil from the Kingdom’s eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

This system was designed to ensure that Saudi exports could bypass Hormuz during periods of regional tension. Yet when oil shipped from Yanbu is destined for Asian markets, tankers must still transit through Bab al-Mandeb before reaching the Indian Ocean.

This structural reality links Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb into a single strategic system within the maritime geography of the Arabian Peninsula.

The Twin Maritime Bottleneck Equation

Viewed through a broader geostrategic lens, the two straits function as interconnected nodes within the global energy and trade architecture.

Pressure exerted in Hormuz primarily affects Gulf oil exports. Pressure exerted in Bab al-Mandeb influences shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, affecting both energy shipments and global container traffic.

When tensions simultaneously affect both chokepoints, the cumulative economic impact can extend far beyond the region. Shipping costs rise, supply chains face disruption, and global markets react with volatility.

The strategic significance therefore lies less in absolute control of these waterways than in the ability to threaten disruption sufficiently to generate economic consequences.
Conclusion

In the emerging geoeconomic landscape, the significance of maritime chokepoints will only grow. Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb are no longer merely regional waterways; they are pivotal nodes in a global system where energy security, trade flows, and geopolitical competition intersect.

Understanding the strategic interplay between these two straits — the twin maritime bottleneck equation — offers insight into how geography continues to shape power in the twenty-first century.

Amb. Prof. Mohamed A. Qubaty

Amb. Prof. Mohamed A. Qubaty is a Yemeni diplomat, academic, and former Minister of Information. He writes on Middle Eastern geopolitics, governance, and Red Sea security.

‘Clock Is Ticking’: Hormuz Disruption Raises Fears Of Global Food Crisis

April 14, 2026 
UN News
By Vibhu Mishra


The clock is ticking for global food systems as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten to choke off the flow of fuel and crucial fertilizers needed for the next planting season – also raising the risk of higher food prices and a new wave of inflation.

A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has done little to restore confidence in the vital maritime corridor, where renewed tensions – including a newly announced US blockade on ships using Iranian ports – are keeping vessels idle and supply chains strained.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critical waterway, carries a significant share of the world’s energy and agricultural inputs. Disruptions since the outbreak of hostilities on 28 February are already constraining flows of oil, gas and fertilizer for newly planted staples, with ripple effects reaching far beyond the Middle East.

“We have 30-35 per cent of the crude oil, which is not moving, 20 per cent of natural gas…and between 20 to 30 per cent of other fertilizers that are not moving out,” said Máximo Torero, Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

“That’s the magnitude of the potential impact,” he warned.

Supply bottleneck despite ceasefire

While the ceasefire briefly raised expectations that shipping could resume, uncertainty remains high. Talks between the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan this weekend, failed to yield any breakthrough.

Many vessels remain stranded in the Gulf, with new shipments yet to enter the corridor. Shipowners and insurers are reluctant to risk costly assets and crews amid ongoing insecurity. Even if tensions ease, it could take days or weeks for traffic to normalise.

That delay is critical, warns David Laborde, Director of Agrifood Economics Division at FAO.

Much of the cargo that left the Gulf before the crisis has already reached its destination — meaning the world is now entering a phase where supplies could begin to tighten.

“We are going to see the real stop in supply” in the days ahead, he said.

A delayed crisis – for now

Despite sharp increases in input costs, global food prices have not yet surged – a point FAO economists stress should not be mistaken for a sign of underlying stability.

The FAO’s Food Price Index for March showed only modest increases, reflecting strong global stocks and good harvests last year.

“We have enough supplies…and good stocks which allow the agri-food system…to be resilient to this shock,” Mr. Torero said.

But that buffer may be short-lived. As planting decisions are made in the coming weeks, farmers facing higher costs and limited access to fertilizers may reduce input use or shift crops – lowering yields in the next season.

“If we don’t have the inputs in the time that is needed…that implies that producers will have to produce with less inputs,” he said. “And therefore, they could have lower yields.”

That, in turn, could drive up food prices later in the year and into the next.

A chain of interdependence

The risks extend across the entire food value chain. Energy underpins everything from farm machinery to transport, while fertilizers – particularly nitrogen-based products linked to natural gas – are critical for crop yields.

The impact is global: from the US and Canada to Australia, farmers depend on stable access to energy and inputs to maintain production, while import-dependent countries – including many in Africa, such as Kenya – face heightened exposure to price shocks and supply disruptions.

Higher oil prices are also increasing incentives to divert crops such as maize, sugar and oilseeds toward biofuel production, tightening the balance between food and fuel.

“If we have rising demand because biofuels start to consume more…and lower supply because we have less input…food prices will go up,” Mr. Laborde warned.

Risks of a ‘perfect storm’

FAO economists warn the situation could deteriorate further if additional pressures emerge – including export restrictions or climate shocks such as the El Niño weather pattern.

In past crises, countries have restricted exports to protect domestic markets, exacerbating global shortages.

“We need to avoid export restrictions…especially now for fertilizers and energy,” Mr. Torero said, warning that without coordination, vulnerable countries could be priced out of essential supplies.

A global risk with local consequences

Although the crisis is centred in the Middle East, its effects are spreading rapidly. Countries in Asia and the Global South are particularly exposed due to their reliance on imported energy and fertilizers and their position in the crop calendar.

“This will start to move from east to west…but also from the south to the north,” Mr. Torero said.

The consequences are both economic and human. Higher food prices hit poorer households hardest, while rising inflation could force governments to tighten monetary policy, slowing growth and increasing debt burdens.

Farmers are also under mounting pressure. Rising input costs and uncertainty are squeezing margins and raising the risk of longer-term disruptions to production.

“When you push them too much, you may bring them into bankruptcy,” Mr. Laborde said. “And then it means there will be a supply problem…for a longer period.”

Alarm bells ringing

Across parts of Asia, early signs of disruption are already emerging.

In South Asia, rising fuel and fertilizer costs are beginning to filter into food prices and farm decisions, with import-dependent economies under mounting pressure.

In Nepal, where millions of households rely on remittances from Gulf countries, disruptions to mobility and rising transport costs are already being felt – raising concerns that what begins as an external shock could quickly translate into hardship at home.
A narrow window to act

FAO is urging governments and international financial institutions to act quickly.

Short-term priorities include avoiding trade restrictions, supporting vulnerable households through social protection, and ensuring liquidity for farmers, including through credit lines and import financing.

Longer term, the crisis underscores the need to diversify energy sources, strengthen infrastructure and reduce reliance on chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.

For now, FAO stresses that a full-blown food crisis is not inevitable – but the window to prevent one is rapidly closing.

“The clock is the key…Let’s avoid a perfect storm – be aware of the risks, put the right policies in place and pursue the diplomatic solutions needed to avert a food crisis we do not need,” Mr. Torero urged.

 

Engineered bacteria unlock seaweed potential: dual enzyme system enables complete alginate depolymerization

HEP Data Cooperation Journals

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Growth and production of riboflavin in E. coli using alginate depolymerized by heterologously expressed alyB and alyD as sole carbon source.

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Credit: HIGHER EDUCATION PRESS

Alginate constitutes 30%–60% of the polysaccharide content in brown seaweed and represents a promising renewable resource. However, its high molecular weight and complex block structure have limited industrial applications. The research team heterologously expressed alyB and alyD genes from the marine bacterium Vibrio algivorus in C. glutamicum, an industrial workhorse traditionally used for amino acid production.
Findings revealed that AlyB and AlyD possess distinct but complementary modes of action. AlyB exhibits endo-activity, cleaving alginate internally to produce oligomers, while AlyD acts exo-lytically on these products to release monosaccharides. Together, they achieve complete depolymerization. Notably, the researchers discovered that AlyB displays C-5 epimerization activity, which is the first report of such activity in the PL7 family of polysaccharide lyases.
To demonstrate practical application, the team used the enzyme-treated alginate to support growth of engineered E. coli producing riboflavin (vitamin B2), achieving concentrations of 2.1 μg/mL. The research provides a foundation for developing integrated bioprocesses that couple alginate degradation with biosynthesis, potentially enabling sustainable production of food additives, biochemicals, and biofuels from seaweed resources.
The work entitled “Heterologous expression and functional characterization of two alginate lyases in Corynebacterium glutamicum” was published on Systems Microbiology and Biomanufacturing (published on January 07, 2026).
 

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Journal

Systems Microbiology and Biomanufacturing

DOI

10.1007/s43393-025-00432-6 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Heterologous expression and functional characterization of two alginate lyases in Corynebacterium glutamicum

Brazil Unveils National Plan For Bioeconomy


The first pillar outlines the development of a community-based socio-bioeconomic business ecosystem - Marcelo Camargo/Agência Brasil

April 5, 2026 
ABr
By Fabiola Sinimbu


The Brazilian government on Wednesday (Apr. 1) presented a new strategy to make biodiversity one of the country’s main economic assets for development by 2035. The National Bioeconomy Development Plan (PNDBio) is expected to encompass everyone from extractive workers to industry.

Among the goals are expanding payments for environmental services, incorporating new herbal medicines into Brazil’s national public health care network – the SUS – and granting new conservation units to promote ecotourism.

The plan is organized into three pillars – socio-bioeconomics and environmental assets, competitive bioindustrialization, and sustainable biomass production.

Carina Pimenta, national secretary for the bioeconomy at the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change, notes that this is a national development strategy that views environmental assets not only from the perspective of conservation, but also in terms of how to utilize them within economic activities, “generating a new cycle of prosperity.”

According to Minister of the Environment and Climate Change Marina Silva, the bioeconomy envisioned for Brazil is for everyone.

“There is a place for extractive industries, for cosmetics manufacturers, and for pharmaceutical companies. This is bioeconomy for a new cycle of prosperity,” she added.

Environmental services

The first pillar outlines the development of a community-based socio-bioeconomic business ecosystem. Among the initiatives are support for 6 thousand enterprises, a 20 percent increase in contracts under the financing line of the national program for strengthening family farming aimed at low-income producers, and a doubling of the gross annual output derived from socio-biodiversity.

Also planned is the promotion of environmental and socio-cultural services provided by traditional peoples and communities through payments to 300 thousand beneficiaries. Also proposed is a 50-percent increase by 2035 in the number of organizations eligible to receive benefits from the sharing of genetic resources. Genetic heritage is the set of data contained in plants, animals, and microorganisms used in the cosmetic, pharmaceutical, and other industries. Current legislation already stipulates that traditional communities, such as indigenous peoples, receive a share of these profits. The goal is to expand this distribution.

The initiative aims to restore 2.3 million hectares of native vegetation integrated into bioeconomy chains, in addition to consolidating 30 restoration territories across the country. The efforts also include granting 60 conservation units to promote ecotourism and expanding forest management areas to 5.28 million hectares.
Industry

Under bioindustrialization, the plan aims to focus on health and wellness through the sustainable use of genetic resources. It aims to incorporate new herbal medicines into the SUS and expand the share of such medicines in Brazil’s pharmaceutical industry revenue by five percent.

Circular economy

The national plan also highlights, in its third pillar, the use of biomass derived from agricultural and forestry products in the national industry. Biomass is any organic material of plant or animal origin that can be used as an energy source. It also includes the development of the renewable biochemical industry, such as the production of biofuels, like ethanol.

“Innovative, competitive, export-oriented, and green – that’s what makes for a sustainable industry,” said Geraldo Alckmin, vice-president and minister of development, industry, trade, and services.

PNDBio is the result of two years of work involving 16 ministries, nonprofits, academia, and the private sector.

After undergoing public consultation with over 900 contributions, the public policy was finalized and approved on March 5, 2026, defining 185 strategic actions.

Agência Brasil (ABr) is the national public news agency, run by the Brazilian government. It is a part of the public media corporation Empresa Brasil de Comunicação (EBC), created in 2007 to unite two government media enterprises Radiobrás and TVE (Televisão Educativa).

 

One pot process to convert sugarcane waste to jet fuel

Converting sugarcane waste to biofuel could become more environmentally friendly and cost effective, thanks to a joint project at The University of Queensland and the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi

University of Queensland

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Sugarcane bagasse 

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Credit: The University of Queensland

Converting sugarcane waste to biofuel could become more environmentally friendly and cost effective, thanks to a joint project at The University of Queensland and the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi.

PhD candidate Ms Neethu Joshikumar has successfully tested a process to simplify the preparation of sugarcane waste, known as bagasse.

“As most countries begin the transition to sustainable fuel, the focus has turned to creating biofuels from agricultural waste but there are still challenges we need to overcome,” Ms Joshikumar said.

“A key problem in making biofuels from bagasse is the presence of lignin, a stubborn component that makes it harder to access the fermentable sugars in bagasse.

"Conventional ethanol production involves soaking the bagasse to remove the lignin and isolate the cellulose, which requires toxic and expensive acids plus a lot of water.

“My research focuses on an alternative pre-treatment to see if we can cut costs and reduce the environmental impact of the conversion process.  

“I used deep eutectic solvent (DES), an eco-friendly biodegradable liquid.

“Unlike the acids it doesn’t kill the enzymes and the yeast needed for fermentation allowing me to complete the entire step in one pot without separation or water washing.

“This reduced the required electricity and time.”

Ms Joshikumar also analysed different sugarcane varieties and found that higher cellulose and lower lignin content gave the best ethanol yield.

Modelling shows when integrated with a sugar mill, the DES-based one-pot bioethanol production is both economically competitive and environmentally sustainable.

Ms Joshikumar said taking a significant step forward to solve a major problem was extremely gratifying.

“Where I’m from in India, farmers burn the agricultural waste every year to get the land ready for the next crop and that causes extensive air pollution,” she said.

“It’s very rewarding to know that my research could result in a better use for that waste and help solve climate issues, as well as speed up the conversion of biofuel.”

Ms Joshikumar started the work and it will be continued by UQ’s ARC Research Hub for Engineering Plants to Replace Fossil Carbon, which is focusing on improving plant biomass to simplify the process of producing sustainable aviation fuel.

The research was published in Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining.

The Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation is a research institute at The University of Queensland, established with and supported by the Department of Primary Industries.

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Journal

Biofuels Bioproducts and Biorefining

DOI

10.1002/bbb.70139 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Economic assessment and life cycle analysis of sugarcane bagasse valorization to bioethanol via one-pot deep eutectic solvent pretreatment

Europe could completely replace fossil fuels in road transport

KIT study shows how much liquid fuel can be produced in the EU from residual and waste materials

Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

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Combustion engines for all applications can run with the reFuels (renewable fuels produced using various processes) developed at KIT. (Photo: Markus Breig and Amadeus Bramsiepe, KIT) 

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Credit: Photo: Markus Breig and Amadeus Bramsiepe, KIT

“Europe has enough renewable resources to be mobile without fossil fuels in the long term,” said Professor Thomas Hirth, Vice President Transfer and International Affairs at KIT. “That’s good news given the current uncertainties in international energy markets. If we use residual and waste materials efficiently, we can make road traffic less dependent on energy imports while reducing CO₂ emissions.”

 

Diversity of Renewable Raw Materials Makes Europe More Independent

The study, commissioned by BMW AG, was based on a set of conditions for aggressive implementation of the Paris Agreement. It relates to a favorable scenario whose preconditions are still to be established by government and the public. The study shows that especially large amounts of residual and waste materials can be used, e.g. straw from agriculture, wood scraps from forestry, or organic waste. Also available are catch crops (plants that are grown between two main crops) and energy crops that grow on low-yield land and do not compete with food production.

 

This diversity ensures that the raw material base remains stable and is not dependent on a single material. “Many people think used cooking oil is the main source of renewable fuels, but it actually amounts to around one percent of the raw material portfolio,” said Professor Thomas Koch from KIT’s Institute of Internal Combustion Engines (IFKM). “The really great potential is in materials like plant residues and wood fiber, which are produced in many processes anyway and can provide sufficiently climate-friendly fuels. But that can only be successful if the production of advanced reFuel biofuels is given the necessary priority by government and the public.”

 

From Residues to Fuels

The researchers investigated several ways to produce useful fuels from biomass, including the HVO (hydrotreated vegetable oil) process, in which oil-bearing residual materials are hydrogenated to produce a diesel substitute, and methanol-based processes. In the latter, a gas is produced from plant residues as an intermediate product that is then processed to produce gasoline or diesel substitutes.

 

“We can produce high-quality fuels from a wide range of residual materials with these processes,” said Professor Nicolaus Dahmen from KIT’s Institute of Catalysis Research and Technology. “That’s important because Europe has many kinds of biomass. Even if the raw material mix changes, the technologies still work.”

 

While HVO is already available at the pump, fuels from other processes are still in development. They are being produced at KIT and tested in vehicles. Fuel can also be produced in large quantities with the tested processes. The study also shows that yield can be further boosted by adding more hydrogen.

 

Liquid Fuels to Remain Important Despite Electromobility

According to the IFKM’s Dr. Olaf Toedter, there will still be significant demand for liquid fuels in spite of Europe’s ambitious electrification plans. “Many vehicles will remain in service for a long time,” Toedter said. “Renewable fuels offer a way for this fleet of existing vehicles to directly avoid CO₂ emissions.“

 

What the Study Investigated

The study investigated which renewable raw materials are available in Europe, how they can be converted in various processes to renewable fuels, and what quantities can be produced. It was based on a set of conditions for aggressive implementation of the Paris Agreement. In the study, the researchers focus on a favorable scenario whose preconditions are still to be established by government and the public. The study also considers how vehicle fleets will develop in the years ahead, the fraction of traffic for which renewable fuels can replace conventional ones, and competition from sectors such as industry, energy, aviation, and shipping.

 

KIT conducted the study in cooperation with the Deutsches Biomasseforschungszentrum (a biomass research institute), Freyberger engineering GmbH, and BMW AG; the study was commissioned by BMW AG. (mex)

 

Original publication

Toedter, Olaf; Heinz, Alexander; Koch, Thomas; Glaser, Manuel; Dahmen, Nicolaus; Cyffka, Karl-Friedrich; Karras, Tom; Görsch, Kati; Lentjes, Christoph; Wittmann, Jan-Hubert; Rausch, Benjamin; Menger, Lars: From raw material to fossil-free mobility: Europe's potential for a renewable fuel market. KITopen 2026. DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000191586 

 

More about reFuels

 

In close partnership with society, KIT develops solutions for urgent challenges – from climate change, energy transition and sustainable use of natural resources to artificial intelligence, sovereignty and an aging population. As The University in the Helmholtz Association, KIT unites scientific excellence from insight to application-driven research under one roof – and is thus in a unique position to drive this transformation. As a University of Excellence, KIT offers its more than 10,000 employees and 22,800 students outstanding opportunities to shape a sustainable and resilient future. KIT – Science for Impact.

 

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DOI

10.5445/IR/1000191586 

Article Title

From raw material to fossilfree mobility: Europe's potential for a renewable fuel market

Article Publication Date

23-Mar-2026