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Wednesday, August 12, 2026

One Disaster After Another: Global Warming is Global Warning


 August 12, 2026

Photograph Source: Frenchbluesman – CC BY 4.0

Have we become so desensitized to alarm from the many life-jarring troubles around the world that we can’t see the reality of human-induced global warming? The same way violence in film, television, and 24-7 streamed news has desensitized us to war and conflict, compartmentalized as something from afar. Not in my backyard. I can’t hear you. Well, the heat is here, whether we admit it or not, no more evident than this summer in Europe.

Spain, France, Portugal, Greece, Italy, and the UK have all suffered extreme heat events in 2026, breaking previous temperature records, while much of the northern hemisphere is undergoing increased hot and dry conditions, impacting agriculture and producing more fires. Record surface temperatures above 33 °C (91.4 F) in the Mediterranean Sea (warmer than the Gulf of Mexico) are also intensifying heat waves across Europe. The Romanian navy even blew up a large underwater rock in a controlled explosion to increase flow to the Old Danube river to provide more cooling to the Cernavodă nuclear power plant amid reduced electric grid output. Mitigation and adaptation may be all we have left.

In the 2006 documentary An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore presented a series of climate disasters in seemingly off-the-radar, underdeveloped countries, but those same disasters are now occurring in developed countries as global temperatures rise and extreme events become more frequent, producing stronger storms, worsening drought that is devastating farms, and generating more virulent fires across wide swathes of land. Amid the worst-ever fire season this past July in Spain and France, former Australian fire and rescue commissioner Greg Mullins stated, “Countries that have always burnt are burning more and countries like the UK, Norway, Greenland that have never burnt are now burning.”

Spain was first to dominate the news cycle this summer as temperatures soared past 40 °C (104 °F) throughout much of the country, intensifying wildfires in Almería that killed 13 people unable to evacuate through instant walls of fire ignited in dried-out vegetation. Wildfires west of Madrid and in Ávila destroyed hundreds of thousands of hectares of land, while some are still burning. One Zaragoza city temperature sign showed 56 °C in direct sunlight and Sumacàrcer in Valencia registered a sensación térmica (feels like) over 60 °C. Increased “desertification” across the Iberian Peninsula is now a major concern.

Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sanchez called a climate emergency “to address the increasingly extreme impacts of climate change,” noting that “climate change denial is the worst fuel” as opposition leaders questioned the reality of human-induced global warming and extreme weather from the continued burning of fossil fuels. The politicization of climate stress is worsening, where ecology is blasted as a new kind of communism.

France especially suffered with 5,700 excess deaths in June, many in Paris among the elderly. In July, in the southwest of France, in the Gironde and Landes regions near Bordeaux, more than 250,000 people were evacuated and 240 homes destroyed amid horrific, out-of-control fires and record-breaking daily temperatures over 40 °C. As the fires threatened the city of Bordeaux, French authorities curtailed the final day of the Tour de France to provide more support.

Because of increased temperatures and longer summers, vegetation is becoming drier, creating more fires and drying out even more land in a horrific climate feedback. Apocalyptic scenes in the Gironde were described with 35-metre “Dantesque” flames as one resident who escaped the fire said, “It was like the end of the world.” Fifty firefighters were injured, while the world saw firsthand the effects of a new type of climate reality, the pirocumulonimbus or “fire cloud” that heats the air even more, spreading toxic ash as dry crisp vegetation is gobbled up. Lightning can also occur, threatening even more fires.

All of Wales was in drought after the driest July in 190 years as well as half of England, causing the natural environment to “deteriorate” and damaging agriculture and food supplies. The UK is undergoing a fifth summer heat wave as the countryside turns from green to brown. All 27 citiesmonitored by the Italian health ministry were under red alert as people were “advised to avoid sunlight, sweet carbonated drinks, coffee, and alcohol.”

Elsewhere, South Korea recorded the highest temperatures ever and issued an outdoor activity alert as temperatures passed 40 °C for five consecutive days. Hong Kong recorded its highest temperatures since 1884. This past year, wildfires began much sooner than usual in Canada, causing smoky skies across southern Ontario and parts of the United States, affecting FIFA World Cup matches and producing the world’s worst air quality in Toronto on July 15. This past week in British Columbia a state of emergency was declared. When does a local emergency become a global emergency?

Numerous regions have suffered unimaginable horrific scenes in the past few years, killing residents, destroying homes, and wiping out large parts of towns as yet another unprecedented fire is added to the record books: Fort McMurray, Alberta (2016), Lytton, British Columbia (2021), Jasper National Park in Alberta (2024). In 2009, 173 people died and thousands of homes were destroyed during Australia’s worst-ever “Black Summer” bushfires. In 2018 in Greece, 104 people died as fires approached Athens. In 2024, over 1,000 fires burnt in Portugal.

Today, BC and the northwest US are under constant threat. Few of us will forget the daily scenes in Los Angeles last year as over 18,000 homes and buildings were destroyed, aided by 100-mph hurricane-force Santa Ana winds. An independent wildfire map that uses data from NASA’s VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) shows over 27,000 current wildfires, almost 16,000 labelled as “critical.”

At the same time, oil companies are racking up record profits. The US president supports even more oil production, despite cartoonish comments by the oil industry’s number-1 lobbyist that oil companies are “making too much money,” showing that lawmakers are beholden to profits at all costs. The rah-rah war strategy in Iran that sustains $80/barrel oil prices is a boon to oil producers, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and BP, shamelessly profiting from yet another war over oil to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. The Pentagon is the number-1 consumer of oil on the planet, costing billions of dollars annually and “a stunning volume of pollution.” War is now just another business. Eat, drink, and be merry, tomorrow will be even hotter.

It’s not like we didn’t know. Global warming was forecast as far back as the start of the Industrial Revolution. The French mathematician Joseph Fourier, the Anglo-Irish physicist John Tyndall, and the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius all did early work to establish the now well-known, heat-trapping properties of water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane. Often overlooked, US scientist Eunice Foot was the first to posit that carbon dioxide could heat the air in her 1856 paper, “Circumstances Affecting the Heat of the Sun’s Rays.

Popular Mechanics has published numerous articles on climate change, including Remarkable Weather of 1911 (1912), Is Our Climate Changing? (1930), Coal Dust Speeds Melting of Ice by Absorbing Sun’s Heat (1940), and What’s Happening to the Weather (1957). American geochemist Wally Broeker coined the term “global warming” in a 1975 Science paper, “Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?,” stating that “the exponential rise in the atmospheric carbon dioxide content will tend to become a significant factor and by early in the next century will have driven the mean planetary temperature beyond the limits experienced during the last 1,000 years.” We have long known the science and the consequences.

In his 2010 book Eaarth: Making a Life on a Tough New Planet, 350.org’s Bill McKibben wrote that “The planet on which our civilization evolved no longer exists. The stability that produced that civilization has vanished.” Citing numerous examples, including hotter air (holding more vapor), increased rainfall, more desert, more lightening, increased ocean heat (more hurricanes), higher acidic seas, more drought, dry rivers (e.g. Lake Mead), lost seafront, lower farm yields, disappearing glaciers, no more coral reefs (perhaps by 2050), and vanishing species, he noted that more of the earth is “now experiencing a tropical climate.”

And yet every year, greenhouse gases continue to rise, carbon dioxide now at 429.12 ppm and methane at 1937.59 ppb. With a world population of over 8 billion, double 50 years ago, growth-based consumerism is exacerbating a runaway crisis, aided and abetted by profiteering corporations and denialist governments. Rome is literally burning as we fiddle.

So what can we do? Better forest management, warning systems, and fire breaks are all needed. Upon visiting the fire-ravaged Gironde, French president Emanuel Macron compared the situation to World War II and vowed to “rebuild a different kind of forest.” One hopes that includes ending subsidized industrial biomass that falsely accounted for 10% of Europe’s “green” energy.

Citing the buildup to the 2024 Olympics, former Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo championed a progressive green strategy with more green spaces, cycle lanes, and electric buses (1,000 now and counting). Solar canopies that provide both power and shade are now mandatory for large French parking lots.

Less is more: oil, plastic, mindless consumption. But will any of it be enough as temperatures continue to rise? Oddly, the newly reformed Schuman Square outside the EU headquarters in Brussels is mostly concrete, called “Europe’s largest frying pan,”while a green canopy was shelved from the plans,

Increased green energy will help. More solar and wind power has been installed in the past two years than in the previous 20 years. We may see a green grid and 100% EVs by 2050. The exponential growth of cheap renewable energy (95% new energy installations) and the rise of electric vehicles (20% of new car sales) are displacing more fossil fuels year on year.

Each year, electric vehicles cut into the global oil supply. At the current rate of conversion, China’s public transportation will be 100% electric by 2035, displacing more than 1 million barrels of diesel fuel per day. The “inflection point” – the moment of price parity between gasmobiles and EVs – will signal the end, coming soon as battery prices continue to fall. With increased EV adoption, roadside pollution is also being reduced.

We have no choice but to change our ways, sooner than later as our climate worsens. We are already in crisis, never mind a limited petroleum supply that will eventually run out this century. Where once we could choose to change, change is now being forced upon us despite our unwillingness and a callous oil industry spurred on by compliant politicians. The heat is on. The disaster spectacle is real.

John K. White, a former lecturer in physics and education at University College Dublin and the University of Oviedo. He is the editor of the energy news service E21NS and author of The Truth About Energy: Our Fossil-Fuel Addiction and the Transition to Renewables (Cambridge University Press, 2024) and Do The Math!: On Growth, Greed, and Strategic Thinking (Sage, 2013). He can be reached at: johnkingstonwhite@gmail.com

Wednesday, August 05, 2026

‘Like the end of the world’: the eclipse chasers flocking to Spain

AFP
August 5, 2026 

A total solar eclipse is expected to be seen from northern Spain on August 12 – Copyright AFP I-Hwa Cheng

Suddenly, the world is plunged into an eerie, violet darkness. The temperature drops. Birds and other animals, bewildered by unforeseen night, start behaving strangely. Stars and planets appear in the sky next to the blotted-out Sun.

It is this awe-inspiring experience that will draw people from all over the world to northern Spain next week in the hope of witnessing a total solar eclipse.

“It feels like it’s the end of the world… you’re changed forever if you see one,” said Elizabeth Warning, one of four self-described “eclipse-chasers” who spoke to AFP ahead of the August 12 event.

However, with devastating fires still raging in some areas of Spain where the eclipse will be visible, the 51-year-old TV researcher may cancel her plans to travel from Sydney, Australia.

“It’s very sad,” Warning said. But as an Australian well-versed with the threat of bushfires, she said her heart went out to people in Spain mourning “lost houses and lost loved ones”.

She is just one member of a small but growing community who plan holidays around seeing total solar eclipses, which take place every year or two.

Witnessing these remarkable events often requires intricate and expensive travel plans. However the total eclipse in Spain — the first visible in mainland Europe this century — is an easier trip than some in the past.



– ‘Adrenaline rush’ –



Ryan Milligan, a solar physicist at Queen’s University Belfast in Northern Ireland, has travelled for 12 different eclipses, to places as far-ranging as Siberia, Chile and the Faroe Islands.

“A total eclipse is not something you see, it’s something you experience,” he told AFP.

“The temperature drops, the light and the shadows are all in the wrong place, the colours are muted, there’s a 360 degree sunset, the animals go to sleep — these things you cannot convey to people through a picture or a video or a news article,” Milligan said.

“It’s that adrenaline rush of trying to experience all that within a few minutes that pushes us literally to go to the ends of the Earth.”

Then once the brief thrill is over, the chasers start planning for their next hit.

“It’s a very expensive, very odd addiction,” Warning said with a laugh.

Lucie Green went all the way to Antarctica in 2021, only to be thwarted by that common enemy of eclipse chasers: clouds.

“I’ve got about a two-thirds success rate,” said the solar physicist at University College London.

Sometimes it works out. Warning described how the “the clouds parted” at the last second in the Faroe Islands in 2015, allowing her to see an eclipse that people just hundreds of metres away missed.

Milligan was one of those who saw only clouds.

“I was distraught… not least because they told me I would have seen it if I’d stayed in my hotel,” he said.

Because they are travelling to the same place at the same time, members of this small community often meet up.

For example, while driving in the extremely remote northwest Australia to see an eclipse in 2019, Green said she bumped into Milligan.



– ‘Breathtaking’ –



For next week’s eclipse, Jenny Winker, a 60-year-old retiree in St Paul, Minnesota, is travelling to northern Spain with nine other family members.

“If you’ve never seen a total eclipse, it is breathtaking,” she said.

While watching smoke from wildfires in Canada drift over Minnesota, Winker said she has also been monitoring the Spanish fires.

Green explained that because the eclipse will occur just before sunset, particles from the fires could create a more “hazy” or “fuzzy” view.

Some chasers are already planning for a total eclipse next year that will be the longest humans will be able to see until 2114.

In Luxor, home to the Valley of the Kings in Egypt, the totality — when the Moon fully covers the Sun — will last six minutes and 22 seconds.

Thursday, July 09, 2026

Could Geoengineering Work To Tamp Down Super El Niños?

El Niño on June 8, 2026 as represented by sea surface height. Image: NASA


July 9, 2026 
By Eurasia Review


With an anticipated “super” El Niño looming, a new study led by UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography considers whether society could use a weather-altering technique as a tool to mitigate the floods, extreme heat and other events that El Niño would bring.

An attempted real-world field test could lead to disastrous unintended consequences but the “Black Summer” bushfires that scorched Australia in 2019 and 2020 served as a “natural experiment.” The smoke that wafted into the atmosphere was filled with reflective, cloud interacting aerosols akin to those used in a geoengineering method called marine cloud brightening.

Previous research by one of the study co-authors found that the smoke-brightened clouds throughout the southeastern Pacific Ocean appeared to play a key role in creating global La Niña-like weather patterns. The effect was compelling enough that the team led by Scripps Oceanography researchers Kate Ricke and Jessica Wan used a seasonal forecasting model to investigate what would have happened if a similar event had occurred before a “super El Niño” instead. The results suggest that this might be an instance where geoengineering is worthy of serious consideration, the authors said.

“As long-term anthropogenic warming and short-term natural variability often compound to produce extreme weather events, our findings suggest it may be worth considering interventions which target natural variability, rather than the forced response to greenhouse gases,” said the authors in the study released July 8 in the journal Science Advances. “Such an approach could result in similar physical risk reduction with shorter duration interventions that carry less sociotechnical risk than a sustained deployment.”


The study appears in the journal Science Advances.

Geoengineering — the altering of climate by making clouds brighter, the oceans more greenhouse gas-absorbent or other means — has been proffered as a solution to slow the pace of global warming for decades but is always accompanied by controversy. Scientists and environmental agencies cite the potential for such methods to make things worse in ways not easily predicted. Entrepreneurs seeking to build a new industry have pushed for real-world testing and have quietly done so in a few regions of the world.

Ricke, a climate scientist with appointments at Scripps Oceanography and UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy, is usually firmly in the camp of scientists who urge caution, saying much more research needs to be done to make an adequate risk/reward analysis. This case is not ordinary, she said. Applied to El Niños like the one forming now, geoengineering could be used temporarily as a tool to help society mitigate specific events nearly guaranteed to produce significant damage. Economic analyses have shown that recent large El Niños cost society trillions of dollars in damage, the authors note.

Strategic marine cloud brightening could be added to an arsenal that already includes flood control and other measures.


The rapid-response nature of such an intervention contrasts with geoengineering schemes that address human-caused global warming but entail a need for international cooperation to manage them over years or decades, Ricke and Wan said.

“One of the biggest social concerns around geoengineering is the fact that if we use it to reduce long-term climate risks, we have to deploy it continuously for an indefinite period of time,” said Wan, now a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Chicago who performed the research while she was a graduate student in Ricke’s lab. “If we could target natural variability, we could get some of the benefits of geoengineering without having to employ it indefinitely.”

Ricke and Wan say this analysis wouldn’t have been possible without a 2023 study led by John Fasullo of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. (Fasullo is also a co-author of this paper.) Fasullo’s team charted the effects of the bushfire smoke that mixed with clouds over the southeastern Pacific Ocean. Another research team had earlier found that the fires emitted a record-breaking amount of aerosols, an effect on par to that from volcanic eruptions.

The reflective particles in that smoke brightened the clouds, increasing the amount of solar radiation bouncing back to space and altering the atmosphere’s circulation, lessening how much El Niño-fueling heat made it to the lower atmosphere. The team also found that it enhanced the La Niña that formed in 2020.

“It was the key breakthrough to this becoming a viable research question,” said Ricke. “Without that validation opportunity, I don’t think our findings would be so credible.”

The team modeled what would happen if — instead of “natural” cloud brightening from smoke during La Niña — deliberate marine cloud brightening were deployed in the Southeast Pacific during major El Niños that originated in 2015 and 1997. The simulation suggested that the targeted marine cloud brightening would indeed attenuate its effects, becoming more effective the earlier in the El Niño event they were introduced. If deployed over the central Pacific Ocean, marine cloud brightening could increase the cooling and drying effects associated with La Niña by more than 40%.


The researchers said they are not aware of any proposals to test this on the El Niño brewing now, but as research progresses, actual geoengineering schemes could be considered by government-level decision makers in the future.

“It’s a different way of thinking about geoengineering,” said Ricke. “We need to understand a lot more, but if there is a way to use this in addition to the risk reduction tools to mitigate El Niños, why wouldn’t we consider it?”

Besides Wan, Ricke and Fasullo, study co-authors are Nan Rosenbloom and Chih-Chieh Chen of NCAR.

The National Science Foundation, NASA, the U.S. Department of Energy and NOAA supported the research.

Thursday, June 04, 2026

 

Hail conditions on the move as winter crops face rising risk





University of New South Wales




A hailstorm can undo a season’s work in minutes. It can strike quickly and unevenly, shredding wheat, bruising fruit, flattening crops – while also leaving neighbouring paddocks untouched.

In a new Nature Climate Change study, scientists from UNSW Sydney say the geography and seasonality of that risk is changing.

As the planet warms, the atmospheric conditions that produce damaging hail are projected to shift away from some warmer regions towards the cooler parts of the world – including south-eastern Australia and New Zealand.

Lead author Dr Tim Raupach from the UNSW Institute of Climate Risk and Response says this is part of an overall hail condition frequency shift towards the poles.

“Under modelling scenarios of 2°C and 3°C of global warming, we see this overall shift towards more risk in cooler places and cooler times of the year,” Dr Raupach says.

“So increasing risk in winter and often decreasing risk in summer – a shift from warmer to cooler regions and seasons,” he says. “Those cooler regions include not only parts of southern Australia and New Zealand, but northern North America and Europe.

“And there are decreases – though still with a lot of uncertainty – in the subtropics and parts of the mid-latitudes. This includes much of Australia as well as regions of India, China and much of Africa.”

An atmospheric tug of war

Because hailstorms are brief and difficult to observe, the researchers did not model hailstones directly. Instead, they used three different proxies, or methods, to detect atmospheric conditions that occur when hail is more likely to form.

These proxies did not always agree, particularly in the tropics, underscoring how difficult future hail risk remains to predict. The disagreement showed that with a warmer atmosphere, several forces act at the same time.

“Usually, as the atmosphere gets warmer, we expect it to have more energy, which could be turned into updrafts,” Dr Raupach says. Updrafts are a key feature of hailstorms.

“When you have these strong winds in the thunderstorms, they can support the growth of larger hailstones,” he says.

At the same time, warmer air also raises the level at which frozen hailstones begin to melt.

“There is a lot more melting in a warmer atmosphere,” Dr Raupach says.

“This can make smaller hailstones melt away.”

The result is an offsetting effect, or an atmospheric tug of war, where warming pushes the system in two directions at once.

“The atmosphere might be more prone to create storms, but the storms that are created might be less likely to have hail reach the ground,” Dr Raupach says.

However, he says the concern is that while hail may become less common across some regions or seasons, they may be more destructive when they do happen.

“Larger hailstones are more likely with stronger storm dynamics,” he says. “That still has important implications for agriculture.”

Winter crops in the firing line

A decrease in summer hail risk also does not necessarily help a winter crop if the danger rises during growing season.

The researchers examined 26 major crop types globally.

“One of the things that makes this study unique is that we looked at the changes in risk to crops based on the hazard changes that we see in the hail-prone environments,” Dr Raupach says.

He and the team looked at what proportion of each crop’s growing season was likely to be affected by hail-prone conditions, and how that exposure changed in future climate projections.

“We saw in the future projections that often the hazard was increasing for winter crops.”

In Australia, where wheat is a major winter crop, the signal is clearest in the south-east – from Tasmania up along the broad arc from Melbourne towards Sydney – where hail-prone environment increases appear in both past trends and future projections.

Risk planning

A crop does not even need to be damaged often for hail to matter – just one severe storm is enough. But for farmers, insurers and policymakers, it is a difficult risk to plan around.

The findings also complicate some assumptions about climate adaptation. As global warming forces crop-growing regions to shift poleward, agriculture may also move into areas where hail risk is increasing.

This means that potential gains from a warmer climate, such as new growing zones or longer seasons in cooler regions, could be offset by exposure to more damaging storm conditions.

Dr Raupach says the uncertainty surrounding future hail risk remains a major challenge.

“It’s hard,” he says. “The uncertainty of it and the difficulty in getting at exactly what’s going on is one of the challenges that we face, and that decision-makers face.

“But we can make broad statements. And the shift towards the poles is the broad statement we can make here.”

Dr Joanna Aldridge is the Head of Research & Development, Catastrophes at QBE, which supported the research.

She says this work is building the scientific evidence base needed to understand how hail risk is shifting.

“This enables better risk assessment, resilience planning and decision-making across industries such as insurance and agriculture,” Dr Aldridge says.

On the move

For Australia, another broad statement concerns the south-east of the continent.

“The southeast of Australia comes up not only in the trends that we see in the past, but also in the future projections as a place where the hazard is increasing,” Dr Raupach says.

While hail has often received less public attention than other climate-linked agricultural threats – such as drought, heatwaves, floods and bushfires – for farmers it can be one of the most immediate and damaging hazards.

The study warns these overlapping shifts “may attenuate any positive impact on crop yields in a warming world”.

 

Dr Tim Raupach’s position at UNSW is supported by QBE Insurance. Dr Raupach and study co-author Professor Steven Sherwood are affiliated with the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre and the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather – where Dr Raupach is an Associate Investigator and Prof. Sherwood is a Chief Investigator.