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Tuesday, August 25, 2026

CANADA

Four provinces set different rules for data centres


Jennifer Friesen
August 21, 2026
DIGITAL JOURNAL

Photo by Geoffrey Moffett on Unsplash

Before anyone pours concrete, a Canadian data centre proposal comes with a bevy of local questions.

Can it get enough power? What will that power cost? Who controls the data? And who gets to say yes?

Ontario added its own on Aug. 13 with a draft Data Centre Playbook.

Alberta, Quebec, and B.C. already have their own rules, and they all look pretty different.

Ontario is proposing to charge new data centres a premium for electricity. Any data centre pulling more than one megawatt (MW) would pay more than the province’s largest factories.

Ontario isn’t offering subsidies, just faster permitting and what it calls white glove service.

Energy and Mines Minister Stephen Lecce said the plan makes data centres pay for “every single cent” of the power they use.

Paying up is only part of it. Projects would be judged on the benefit they bring the economy, the investment they make locally, and their plan to keep Canadians’ data in Canada, according to the government.

Ontario calls the playbook an early part of its coming AI strategy, and pitches that strategy as $122 billion in economic growth by 2035 and 17,000 jobs a year.

That last pillar puts the big U.S. cloud providers on watch, and it’s a harder promise than it sounds.

Data sitting on Canadian soil isn’t automatically beyond American reach.

Under the U.S. CLOUD Act, a U.S.-based provider can be compelled to hand over data it controls wherever that data physically sits. Who controls the provider matters more than where the building is.

All of this is still a proposal. Ontarians have until Sept. 12 to tell the province what they think.
Alberta, Quebec, and B.C. drew three different lines on power

A single large AI data centre can draw as much power as a city, and the requests are arriving faster than any province wants to approve them blindly.

Alberta, Quebec, and B.C. are each sorting them in different ways.

Alberta gives priority to data centres that bring their own power. Those projects move to the front of the line, and the developer pays for whatever grid upgrades their power needs.

Normally a data centre deals with the grid operator, the energy regulator, and the local municipality separately. Alberta’s concierge program, as the province calls it, gives them one provincial point of contact instead.

The largest project to break ground is Meta’s $13 billion campus in Sturgeon County, its first in Canada.

Bigger builds have been announced, including a $70 billion project near Grande Prairie, but many are still in the planning stage.

Meta’s first phase is expected to connect up to 970 MW to Alberta’s grid. Its dedicated gas plant, a 932 MW facility being developed by Pembina Pipeline and its partners, doesn’t open until the second half of 2030.

Alberta Technology and Innovation Minister Nate Glubish said the province used no grants, tax credits or incentives to land Meta.

“We did not want to be first and rush in blindly,” he said at the Calgary announcement in July. “We wanted to be smartest.”
Alberta Minister of Technology and Innovation Nate Glubish, speaks at The Princeton in Calgary on July 8, 2026. — Photo by Jennifer Friesen, Digital Journal

The Pembina Institute warns that Alberta’s reliance on natural gas could raise consumer electricity costs and make them more volatile. But the province points to a different line in the bill, saying Meta is covering its own transmission costs and could lower the transmission portion of other customers’ bills.

Quebec markets some of the lowest power rates in North America to data centres. Now it wants to charge the large ones more, roughly doubling the rate for any new data centre over 5 MW to about 13 cents a kilowatt-hour, so it can save that cheap power for the users it wants most.

Operators are already lining up to fight the increase at the province’s energy regulator this fall, since low-cost hydro has been one of Quebec’s main draws.

B.C. makes data centres compete for a limited slice of power, and it keeps its big resource industries out of the contest.

AI and data centre proposals are competing for a capped pool of about 400 MW over two years.

The province scores those bids partly on data sovereignty and First Nations participation. It says data centres deliver fewer jobs and less revenue than natural-resource projects, so traditional industries like mining, forestry, and LNG sit outside the competition altogether.

Energy Minister Adrian Dix said B.C. built it that way because the province “learned from other jurisdictions that have had an extremely negative economic effect.”

South of the border, some Americans are already paying more because of them.

Right now, everyone else gets stuck with the bill. The fight is over whether data centres ever do.

All four governments want data centres to cover their own power costs. They’re going about it differently, of course, with Alberta using its own-power priority, Quebec its pricing, B.C. its rationing, and Ontario a separate rate. Whether it holds at this scale is untested.

None of this is a sure thing, either.

Companies love to announce capacity they haven’t built yet. The industry even has a word for it, bragawatts, the megawatts that live in a press release and never get built.

In B.C., Conservative MLA David Williams, the party’s critic for BC Hydro and electricity self-sufficiency, calls the process rationing, one that in his words “avoids the root problem” of a province without enough power to go around.
Skipping consultation is what stops these projects

Even where a province says yes, a local council can still say no, and many residents are asking them to.

Oakville became the first Ontario municipality to pass a one-year moratorium on new data centres, two days before the province released its playbook. Hamilton said no to a similar freeze while Mississauga is preparing its own, and residents in Toronto are fighting two projects over water and noise.

Ontario now holds the final say on grid connections, but municipalities still control zoning and development approval. No project has yet tested what happens when the province says yes to the grid and a municipality says no to the site.

Communities fight these projects when they see the risks landing on them (the water, the power bills, the emissions) while the payoff goes somewhere else.

In Manitoba, Premier Wab Kinew said no to a gas-powered AI data centre near Île-des-Chênes, saying it threatened the environment with little economic upside, as a petition against it passed 13,500 signatures.

The energy sector spent 60 years learning this, and its veterans brought the lesson to the AI industry at Upper Bound in Edmonton earlier this year.

“The person who doesn’t get a cheque has the ability to disrupt the whole project,” said energy economist Peter Tertzakian. “It’s a big learning for AI.”

Peter Tertzakian, energy economist and founder of Studio.Energy, speaks at Upper Bound in Edmonton. — Photo by Jennifer Friesen, Digital Journal

The developers who get ahead of it build the community into the deal.

In Alberta, Woodland Cree First Nation holds 51% of a proposed data centre on its traditional territory that is planned to reach 650 MW, with revenue funding housing, education, and elder care. A few hundred kilometres away, Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation is in court challenging a water licence tied to Wonder Valley, arguing Alberta failed to consult it. The Nation also says it was not consulted on the land sale.

Same province, same technology, and a very different answer on who got a say.

The frameworks for doing it already exist. Canada spent a decade building them for pipelines and mines, through Indigenous equity ownership and community benefit agreements, and the First Nations Major Projects Coalition that advises on them now represents 186 First Nations.

The data centre industry can use that playbook or repeat the fights.

Burlington Mayor Marianne Meed Ward, who chairs Ontario’s Big City Mayors, wants consistent federal and provincial rules so individual councils aren’t writing data centre policy from scratch.

Ontario’s comment window closes Sept. 12, and the province says the final playbook will support its AI Industrial Strategy this fall.

Four provinces have staked out their terms. What no one can say yet is which of these projects gets poured, powered, and switched on.

Final shotsThe province a company builds in sets its power cost, its approval odds, and who can legally reach its data.

Data on Canadian soil can still fall un
der U.S. law. Provider ownership and control belong in the vendor contract.

Grid approval can still leave a project facing a municipal vote or a court challenge.

Friday, August 21, 2026

 

The clean energy transition’s missing metric: human health





Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health






Earlier this year, the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, in Santa Marta, Colombia, convened representatives from 57 countries to advance a just, orderly, and equitable transition to green energy. According to a new correspondence published in The Lancet, while the conference’s final report makes a powerful case for a rapid global phase-out, “it overlooks the extraordinary health and health-economic benefits of doing so.”

In the letter, Robbie Parks, PhD, assistant professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, and six co-authors explain that the transition away from fossil fuels offers a quintuple win: healthier populations, enhanced energy security, cleaner environments, more resilient and affordable health systems, and effective climate mitigation.

The authors, who are scholars and scientists in sustainability, climate action, communications, and environmental health, offer three concrete recommendations for bringing health into planning for the green transition:

  1. National leaders should convene national dialogues to assess the health harms of fossil fuels and the benefits of phase-out, and to shape transition policies that maximize health, equity, energy security, resilience, and climate gains.
  2. The health community should be appropriately resourced to support these dialogues by identifying and quantifying avoidable health harms, health benefits of phase-out, and associated economic returns.
  3. The health community must build structures needed to upskill rapidly at scale and to translate research into policy and advocacy efforts required to counter multibillion-dollar fossil fuel public relations, misinformation, and lobbying.

“We must make the case—to the public and policymakers at all levels—that phase-out prevents illness, saves lives, and helps stabilize the supply chains, electricity grids, water supplies, health-care infrastructure, and health workforce on which functioning health systems depend. Metrics and narratives grounded in community harms resonate with lived experience, counter disinformation, and frame the transition around shared prosperity and wellbeing,” the authors write.

Additional co-authors include Julianna Gwiszcz and Edward Maibach, George Mason University; Jessica Newberry Le Vay, University of Oxford; Ebba Malmqvist, Lund University; Courtney  Howard, University of Calgary and York University; and Marina Romanello, University College London.

 

Dark boreal forests of Canada absorb enough heat to cancel up to a fifth of their climate benefit, scientists warn



Canada's current carbon accounting scheme ignores how much sunlight a forest reflects, and the credits built on it may overstate what they deliver





United Nations University





Richmond Hill, Ontario, Canada (20 August 2026) – Dense evergreen plantations in Canada’s boreal forest absorb so much winter sunlight that the resulting surface warming can offset 6 to 20 percent of the climate benefit they are credited with. Canada’s current carbon accounting frameworks measure the carbon stored but largely omit the heat absorbed by these forests, according to a new Policy Brief from the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH). The result is inflated mitigation estimates and public investment in forests that may not deliver the cooling they promise. 

The Policy Brief “From Carbon Accounting to Net Cooling: Securing the Albedo-Carbon Double Win in Canada’s Boreal Forest” argues that Canada should judge reforestation by its net effect on temperature rather than by tonnes of carbon stored. “Canada has an opportunity here that few countries have,” said Professor Kaveh Madani, Director of UNU-INWEH. “It can be the first to verify forests on what they actually do to the climate, not on what they store on paper. That protects public money, and it protects the credibility of every credit this country issues. Climate leadership isn’t about planting more trees anymore. It’s about being able to show, decades from now, that the forest we planted is still cooling the ground it stands on.” 

In snow-covered landscapes, the color of the land surface matters as much as what grows on it. Open snow reflects most of the sunlight that reaches it, but a dark spruce canopy absorbs it. A dense evergreen stand across a snowy landscape makes the ground measurably darker for months of the year, warming the surface even as the trees pull carbon from the air. Scientists call this reflectivity albedo, and most carbon accounting frameworks in use today do not subtract it. 

The authors from UNU-INWEH, the University of Waterloo, and Polytechnique Montréal, find that offset frameworks counting stored carbon without deducting surface warming or adjusting for permanence risk systematically overstate reforestation’s true climate value. Evidence from the Taiga Plains shows that heat absorbed by dark spruce forests can offset 6-20 percent of their reported carbon gain.  Afforestation and reforestation sit at the center of Canada’s climate commitments, which makes the gap expensive. The publication treats the exposure as fiscal as it is environmental. Public money may be flowing into forests that absorb more heat and carry elevated fire reversal risk. Without reform, the authors warn, Canada risks issuing low-integrity carbon credits. They call this a policy failure to measure net temperature impact, not a gap in the science. 

“A forest can pass a carbon audit and still leave the surface warmer than it was. That’s the part nobody is measuring,” said Professor Pooneh Maghoul, Lead for Sustainable Infrastructure in Cold Regions at UNU-INWEH. “We’re not questioning whether trees help. We’re saying the ledger is incomplete, and in the North the missing entry is large enough to change the answer.” 

Long-term modeling studies in northern Canada show that forest design decides the outcome. Mixed stands with 25 to 40 percent deciduous trees, planted at moderate densities of 600 to 1,400 trees per hectare, hold substantial carbon while reflecting more winter sunlight. They also burn less intensely. Dense evergreen mono-plantations do the reverse, intensifying competition for soil moisture and building the continuous fuel that drives high-severity fire in dry years. Wildfire, the Policy Brief argues, has become the primary constraint on carbon durability in a warming boreal system. In drought-prone country, a dense plantation is a fire liability rather than a climate asset. 

“The question isn’t how many trees we plant. It’s what we plant, how densely, and whether the site can still hold water in thirty years,” said Professor Maghoul. “Get that wrong and you’ve spent public money on something that burns.” 

The authors urge Canada to establish a Net Cooling Standard that deducts the Albedo Penalty and screens for wildfire permanence across all publicly supported reforestation. They also recommend confining restoration to hydrologically viable under-stocked land, and building a satellite-supported national platform to monitor soil moisture, fuel accumulation and surface reflectivity as conditions change. 

Key Findings at a Glance 

  • Heat absorbed by dark spruce forests can offset 6 to 20 percent of their reported carbon gains, based on evidence from the Taiga Plains. 

  • Mixed forests with 25 to 40 percent deciduous trees, planted at 600 to 1,400 trees per hectare, deliver stronger and more durable climate cooling than dense evergreen monocultures. 

  • A mixed stand of approximately 25 percent aspen generates stronger and more durable cooling than conifer-only stands by combining rapid early growth with sustained carbon retention. 

  • In a warming boreal system, wildfire is the primary constraint on carbon durability, not growth rate or planting volume. 

  • Partial harvesting followed by prompt mixed-species replanting maintains stronger and more stable climate returns than full clearcut cycles. 

Publication Details 

Ofosu, E., Dsouza, K. B., Amaogu, D. C., Pigeon, J., Boudreault, R., Shokri, N., Moreno-Cruz, J., Matin, M., Madani, K., Maghoul, P., and Leonenko, Y. (2026). From Carbon Accounting to Net Cooling: Securing the Albedo-Carbon Double Win in Canada’s Boreal Forest. United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), Richmond Hill, Ontario, Canada. doi: 10.53328/INR26RPM001 

Available for Interview 

Interview requests should be submitted to media.inweh@unu.edu 

About UNU-INWEH 

Marking its 30th anniversary of operation in 2026, the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH) is one of 13 institutions that make up the United Nations University (UNU), the academic arm of the UN. Known as ‘The UN’s Think Tank on Water’, UNU-INWEH addresses critical water, environmental, and health challenges around the world. Through research, training, capacity development, and knowledge dissemination, the institute contributes to solving pressing global sustainability and human security issues of concern to the UN and its Member States. 

Headquartered in Richmond Hill, Ontario, UNU-INWEH has been hosted and supported by the Government of Canada since 1996. With a global mandate and extensive partnerships across UN entities, international organizations, and governments, UNU-INWEH operates through its UNU Hubs in Calgary, Hamburg, New York, Lund, and Pretoria, and an international network of affiliates. 

Thursday, August 13, 2026

 

UN University: Ontario wildfire smoke in mid-July exposed North Americans to unhealthy air for 106 million person-days in just three days



Tens of millions breathed unhealthy air on both sides of the border as Canada's slow fire season intensified within weeks, new analysis finds




United Nations University





Richmond Hill, Ontario, Canada (13 August 2026) – Smoke from Canada's July wildfires exposed people across Canada and the United States to unhealthy, very unhealthy or hazardous air for nearly 106 million person-days between 15 and 17 July. Over the peak impact period of 13 to 18 July, moderate or worse air quality accounted for more than 769 million person-days. For a period, Toronto recorded the poorest air quality of any major city in the world. 

"The July 2026 Wildfires in Canada and Their Transboundary Smoke Problem," an Incident Brief published by the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH) evaluates wildfire activity across Canada up to 21 July 2026 and human exposure to smoke in Canada and the United States during the mid-July peak. The analysis pairs satellite-derived fire perimeters with ground-based air quality readings, overlaid on gridded population maps. Person-days are the number of people exposed multiplied by the number of days they were exposed. It is the third Incident Brief the institute has published on North American fires, after assessments of the January 2025 Los Angeles fires and the May to June 2025 Central Canada fires

Canada's fire season began slowly. By 28 June the country had burned more than 1.2 million hectares less than its ten-year average for the date. Then the North American Heat Dome settled over much of the continent. By 21 July the deficit had become a surplus of 367,000 hectares. Nationally, 3,915 fires had burned nearly 3.04 million hectares, the third largest total for this point in the year, behind only 2023 and 2025. 

Ontario drove the reversal. The province recorded 565 fires burning more than 728,000 hectares, roughly three and a half times its ten-year average. Annual precipitation across Ontario was close to normal, but the southwest of the province had received more than two standard deviations less rain than usual over the previous two months, and temperatures had run more than 2°C above average. The forests dried out fast. 

“Climate change has not only increased the frequency of wildfires, especially in the mesic vegetation types, but also made them more intense,” said Dr. Mojtaba Sadegh, Climate and Wildfire Analytics Lead at UNU-INWEH. “When these dense forests burn, they release a huge amount of smoke that impacts millions of people far away from the burn perimeters. There is no easy solution to this problem; it requires a collective commitment to curbing climate change, and even if we act today, the problem will not disappear overnight, but we can make sure it does not get worse.” 

Smoke from the Ontario fires travelled hundreds of kilometres. It pushed Toronto's air quality to unhealthy levels and spread across southern Ontario and parts of Quebec, then moved south into the United States, degrading air quality in Detroit, Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Chicago, New York City and Washington, D.C. Officials in numerous states advised residents to stay indoors and limit outdoor exercise, with particular warnings for children, older adults and people with respiratory or cardiovascular conditions. Some cities cancelled public events or moved them inside. 

Transboundary smoke also became a source of political friction between Canada and the United States, two countries with a long record of cooperation in emergency management and firefighting. The brief argues that worsening climate-driven wildfire and smoke hazards can strain even close international relationships, and that coordinated firefighting and cross-border public health planning matter more as those hazards intensify. 

Closer to the fires, evacuation fell heaviest on Indigenous communities. More than 3,500 First Nations residents were displaced nationally by mid-July, and as many as 11 Ontario First Nations were under evacuation because of wildfire impacts. Around 1,800 residents left remote northwestern communities. Ontario requested federal assistance, including support from the Canadian Armed Forces, to reach places accessible only by air or water. In Namaygoosisagagun First Nation, residents escaped by boat as the approaching fire destroyed the community. Whitewater Lake First Nation was also affected. The fires also disrupted transport and economic activity, halting Canadian National Railway operations for a time. 

The brief calls on national and provincial authorities to strengthen evacuation preparedness and shelter capacity in remote and Indigenous communities. It also wants clean-air shelters and clearer public health guidance during smoke events, alongside investment in early detection and in infrastructure that can withstand fire in high-risk regions. Over the longer term, it ties the risk to global temperature increases, particularly across boreal regions where carbon-rich ecosystems matter for climate stability well beyond Canada. 

“Smoke does not check passports,” said Professor Kaveh Madani, Director of UNU-INWEH. “What burns in a forest in northern Ontario is breathed in a schoolyard in Chicago a day later. It is a shared problem and it has shared solutions. The communities that are evacuated first and hit hardest need investment. And cities need to plan for smoke the way they have learned to plan for heat.” 

Report Information 

Teymoor, S., Abatzoglou, J., AghaKouchak, A., Pigeon, J., Madani, K., Matin, M., and Sadegh, M. (2026). The July 2026 Wildfires in Canada and Their Transboundary Smoke Problem. United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), Richmond Hill, Ontario, Canada. doi: 10.53328/INI26IMS001 

Available for Interview 

Interview requests should be submitted to media.inweh@unu.edu 

About UNU-INWEH 

Marking its 30th anniversary of operation in 2026, the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH) is one of 13 institutions that make up the United Nations University (UNU), the academic arm of the UN. Known as 'The UN's Think Tank on Water', UNU-INWEH addresses critical water, environmental, and health challenges around the world. Through research, training, capacity development, and knowledge dissemination, the institute contributes to solving pressing global sustainability and human security issues of concern to the UN and its Member States. Headquartered in Richmond Hill, Ontario, UNU-INWEH has been hosted and supported by the Government of Canada since 1996. With a global mandate and extensive partnerships across UN entities, international organizations, and governments, UNU-INWEH operates through its UNU Hubs in Calgary, Hamburg, New York, Lund, and Pretoria, and an international network of affiliates. 

Monday, August 10, 2026

Average Canadian data breach cost hits record $7.11 million

Jennifer Friesen
August 6, 2026
DIGITAL JOURNAL

Photo by Taylor Vick on Unsplash

Canadian organizations just posted the highest average data breach cost IBM has ever recorded for the country, and breaches involving trusted partners and vendors added more to the bill than any other factor.

A data breach in Canada now costs an average of $7.11 million, according to the 2026 IBM Cost of a Data Breach Report, conducted by Ponemon Institute.

After IBM converted the figures to U.S. dollars, Canada ranked fourth among the 16 countries and regions studied for breach costs, behind only the U.S., the Middle East, and Benelux.

Canadian breaches are getting larger, too. In IBM’s Canadian sample, the average number of compromised records rose 8% to 28,500, while the average time to identify and contain a breach rose 6% to 205 days.

Supply chain compromise, where a trusted vendor, contractor, or software partner is breached and gives attackers a way in, added the most to Canadian breach costs. When it was a factor, the average cost ran about $367,900 higher.

Security skills shortages added $314,500 and difficulty prioritizing threats added $311,300. Anyone who has tried to hire a senior security analyst in Canada probably saw the first one coming.

Those costs aren’t distributed evenly. Energy organizations are paying an average of $9.21 million per breach, the highest of any Canadian industry, followed by technology at $9.02 million and industrial organizations at $8.89 million.

A breach in those sectors can cascade across power grids, production floors, and the supply chains that connect them.

“Attackers are increasingly targeting sectors where disruption creates real operational and economic consequences, while also looking for the weakest link in the supply chain,” says Chris Sicard, IBM Canada security leader.

AI is now part of the attack and part of the target.

More than a quarter of Canadian organizations reported an AI-generated attack. Globally, 92% of organizations that experienced a breach involving one of their own AI models or applications lacked proper access controls on those systems and data.

The question of who governs AI systems and how is becoming a cybersecurity question as fast as it’s becoming a regulatory one. Who can access the models and the data?

AI is making attacks cheaper to launch. How much it costs to clean one up depends a lot on whether the target was using it too.

Organizations running AI and automation extensively in their security operations reported average breach costs of $5.5 million, compared with $8.91 million for those without. That’s a $3.41 million difference per breach.

They found and contained incidents weeks faster too, with the extensive-use group detecting breaches in 124 days and containing them in 57. Organizations without the tools took 154 days to detect a breach and 71 days to contain it.

The study might not establish that the tools caused the difference, but it does give technology leaders a useful test for the next security budget.

Which part of the breach timeline will this shorten?

Final shots

A vendor breach can become your incident when that vendor can reach your systems. The response plan should name who can cut access and who makes the call.

Before approving another AI security tool, ask which part of detection or containment it is expected to shorten.

Energy, technology, and industrial organizations should model what stops when systems go down. Breach costs belong in operating plans as well as security budgets.







Written by
Jennifer Friesen
Jennifer Friesen is Digital Journal’s associate editor and Calgary Bureau lead.



Tuesday, August 04, 2026

 

Canada’s Enbridge postpones plans for second phase of Mainline oil pipeline expansion





Photo courtesy of Enbridge.

Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge has postponed the 250,000-barrel-per-day second phase of its Mainline crude pipeline network, it said on Friday, partly because Canadian oil producers have not committed to significant output increases.

The Mainline pipeline is Canada’s largest crude oil export pipeline and can already move 3 million barrels per day of crude from Western Canada to markets in Eastern Canada and the U.S. Midwest.

The second phase would have increased exports of Canadian crude to U.S. refineries.

But Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel said the company will focus first on its 100,000 bpd Flanagan South Expansion and its 50,000 bpd Southern Access Extension, which are smaller projects in scope.

They will add capacity to two secondary pipelines that connect to the Mainline in Illinois and transport crude to multiple U.S. refining centers and the Gulf Coast.


Enbridge is soliciting contracted volumes for the two pipelines through commercial open season processes.

Growing Canadian oil output

Canadian oil production is growing and hit a record high of 5.1 million bpd on average last year.

Expectations of further growth have in recent months spurred multiple proposals for additional export pipeline projects, including by South Bow and Bridger Pipeline to revive parts of the former Keystone XL project.

Enbridge has already committed to a first-phase Mainline expansion project, which would add 150,000 bpd of capacity and be placed into service by 2027. The company had previously projected the second phase could be in-service as early as 2028.

Ebel said Canada has a generational opportunity to expand its oil output as a result of federal government policy changes over the past year and the rollback of some environmental rules.

He also said that although agreements between the federal government and Alberta aimed at accelerating oil sands growth could have a major impact, most of the proposed changes remain non-binding and have yet to be enshrined into law.

Enbridge does not expect Canadian oil sands companies to meaningfully boost production until there is more policy and regulatory certainty, said Colin Gruending, the company’s president of liquids pipelines.

“Nor do we expect producers to be making binding FID-able commitments to new pipelines until then,” Gruending said, referring to final investment decisions.

He said Enbridge may have been too quick to propose the Mainline phase two project, but that the company was confident the project will eventually be needed.


Earlier this month, Alberta and the federal government announced plans for a potential 1 million bpd oil pipeline to Canada’s British Columbia coast, but no decisions have been made to go ahead with either that project or the South Bow-Bridger proposal.

(Reporting by Amanda Stephenson in Calgary; Editing by Rod Nickel and Barbara Lewis)