Subsurface modelling has become the ‘confidence infrastructure’ of CCS projects worldwide


ByPramod Jain
DIGITAL JOURNAL
December 17, 2025


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Pramod Jain is a thought leader in Digital Journal’s Insight Forum (become a member).

If you were asked to put 1 million tonnes of CO₂ into the ground every year for the next few decades, how confident would you be that you understand what will happen to it?

If you had to insure that storage, would you be comfortable signing the policy?

If you were financing the project, would you be satisfied that the risk is priced properly?

If you were the operator, would you be ready to explain your confidence to a regulator, an insurer, and a board?

These questions once belonged to a small group of technical reviewers. Today, they sit at the centre of decisions being made by regulators, insurers, lenders, commercial partners, and operators involved in carbon capture and storage (CCS).

CCS is drawing attention because the energy transition conversation is everywhere, and more companies are preparing to return significant volumes of CO₂ to the subsurface instead of releasing it into the atmosphere.

To do that, carbon dioxide must be transported, injected underground into the right geological formation, and stored in a way that keeps it contained for decades. And because it’s underground, none of it can be observed directly, which introduces challenges.

Once CO₂ is injected, it moves through porous rock, changes state under pressure, and interacts with the reservoir in ways that depend on geology.

The only practical way to understand that behaviour is through modelling.
A turning point for evidence in CCS

CMG has been modelling subsurface behaviour since 1978, drawing on decades of injection work across oil and gas, geothermal projects, and other subsurface disciplines. The physics are not new, but the expectations around the evidence are.

Storage decisions have become simultaneous and multi-institutional, bringing insurers, lenders, regulators, and commercial partners, each assessing the same evidence through a different lens.

As more institutions participate in CCS, the expectations placed on modelling have expanded and become more specific. Simulation has always been essential, but more institutions now depend on it, and the consequences of their decisions are larger than before.

Storage projects also differ widely in their geology, operating plans, and injection rates, which means the model must reflect the specific conditions of each reservoir rather than a generic template. This shift is happening as activity accelerates.

The Global CCS Institute reports there are now 77 operating CCS facilities globally, with 47 in construction, and 610 in development. That brings the total pipeline to 734 projects.

More proposals mean more decisions. More decisions mean more scrutiny. And more scrutiny means higher expectations for the quality, transparency, and discipline behind the model.

A simple but meaningful reality is taking shape: subsurface modelling has now become the confidence infrastructure of CCS.

It’s evolving into the foundation on which regulatory approval, financial risk, commercial agreements, and insurance coverage are based.

Other sectors rely on audited financial statements and system-wide stress tests to support decisions made by institutions with different mandates. In CCS, the subsurface model increasingly plays this role.

The companies that understand this shift, and that build evidence systems strong enough to support it, will gain an unfair advantage as hundreds of CCS projects move into construction.
What this shift requires from companies

The next phase of CCS will be defined not only by how well operators model the subsurface, but by how effectively they build trust in the evidence that surrounds it.

This change requires different choices than the sector has made in the past.

1) Companies need to align modelling with insurability, not just permitting

Permitting focuses on whether storage is safe and stays contained.

Insurers look at financial risks, including the chance that storage might not meet its expected performance. For example, injecting less CO₂ than planned, failing to store the required volume, or losing credits if the storage fails to meet regulatory conditions.

A subsurface model can’t guarantee outcomes, but it can clarify the conditions under which those outcomes become more or less likely.

Companies that present this evidence clearly, and that map their risk register to the exposures insurers actually underwrite, will negotiate better terms and face fewer delays.

2) Companies need to understand and model the risks that come from how capture, transport, and storage systems interact

CCS hubs and clusters introduce new dependencies between capture, transport, and storage.

CO₂ does not behave the same way coming out of every facility, and variations in impurities, temperature, and pressure can affect both surface equipment and reservoir performance.

Simulation can’t eliminate that risk, but it can show how sensitive the system is to specific conditions and where flexibility exists.

This helps companies design stronger commercial agreements, clarify responsibilities between partners, and avoid operational disputes that erode trust.

2) Companies need to treat the model as a living governance asset, not a static report

With simulation, early models establish a baseline understanding, but real confidence comes from what happens after injection begins.

Operating data will strengthen or challenge assumptions, narrow uncertainty, and improve decisions over time.

Companies that show how they will update evidence and refine uncertainty build credibility with regulators, insurers, and lenders who reassess risk across the project life.

Simulation does not replace monitoring or engineering judgement — it provides a disciplined way to integrate learning into decisions that carry financial and regulatory consequences.

These three capabilities don’t ask companies to do more modelling. They ask them to treat modelling differently.

Simulation does not remove all risk, but it clarifies it. It doesn’t eliminate uncertainty, but it shows where uncertainty matters and where it does not. And it can’t guarantee performance, but it can establish a shared basis for decisions among institutions that evaluate the same project through different lenses.

Companies that understand this will be the ones that move faster, because they can demonstrate something the market increasingly values when certainty is not possible — well-founded confidence.
What trusted evidence looks like in CCS, and what’s next

The companies that advance storage fastest will be those that produce evidence others can trust. That requires clarity about reservoir behaviour across the range of conditions that matter.

Good subsurface modelling and simulation reflects the physics that govern how CO₂ moves, how pressure evolves, and how operating conditions influence stability. It incorporates geomechanics, caprock integrity considerations, pressure buildup, and fluid interactions where they play a meaningful role. These risks can’t be evaluated without physics-based modelling.

Trusted evidence also requires clear assumptions, transparent methods, and uncertainty expressed through probability ranges rather than single forecasts. Reviewers need to understand what the model predicts, and also why it predicts it, how sensitive outcomes are to different conditions, and which uncertainties matter most.

As projects move from construction into operation, data refines the model. The ability to update the evidence and narrow uncertainty is essential for maintaining confidence, and regulators, insurers, and lenders increasingly expect this discipline.

Evidence quality will increasingly determine which projects reach major commitments and which ones stall.

As storage becomes a more visible part of decarbonization strategies, the expectations placed on modelling will continue to rise. The companies that recognize this moment, and that treat modelling as confidence infrastructure rather than a technical formality will be in the strongest position to advance projects, secure capital, and build trusted partnerships.

Trusted evidence, not technical novelty, will determine which projects advance. Companies that deliver it will shape the future of CCS and build momentum as the energy transition accelerates.

Written ByPramod Jain

Pramod Jain is a software executive and professional engineer with over 15 years of international leadership experience focused on corporate growth and innovation. Joining CMG as CEO in 2022, he brings a strategic mind and proven track record of successfully building strong, customer-focused global B2B product organizations. Pramod has a unique ability to calibrate technology corporations for growth through effective leadership, innovation, and communications. Pramod holds a Master of Science Degree in Industrial Engineering from Mississippi State University, a Bachelor of Technology, Electrical and Electronics Engineering Degree from Kurukshetra University, in India and a diploma in Corporate Finance from INSEAD in France. Pramod is a member of Digital Journal's Insight Forum.

 

California Protects Blue Whales and Blue Skies With Historic State Law

NOAA file image

Published Dec 16, 2025 4:33 PM by Protecting Blue Whales and Blue Skies

 

In October, California Assembly Bill 14, “Coastal resources: Protecting Blue Whales and Blue Skies Program” (AB-14) was signed into law, making California the first state in the country to strengthen a longstanding voluntary effort to reduce air pollution and risks to endangered whale populations off California’s coast by reducing speeds of large ocean-going vessels.

 Air pollution is one of the biggest environmental threats to human health, linked both to increased risk of chronic diseases and mortality. In California, due to a combination of factors, many cities and counties rank among the United States’ worst for air quality, and emissions from ships are a significant contributor.

Whale-ship collisions are a top risk to endangered whales globally and California is one of the few places with protection measures in place. Now, thanks to AB 14, spearheaded by Assemblymember Gregg Hart, protections will expand as the Protecting Blue Whales and Blue Skies Program (BWBS) becomes a statewide voluntary program, with California’s Ocean Protection Council as a new partner.

Why?

California is a hotspot for both global trade and biodiversity and one of the largest economies in the world. And California’s major ports— including the Ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Hueneme, and San Diego — are major hubs for international trade and major entry points to the U.S. market, accounting for about 40% of all containerized imports. Global trade and the container, bulk, vehicle carrier, and tanker ships that make it possible are critical to California and to global economies.

The goods transported by ocean freight have significantly lower carbon footprints than those moved by air. These ships, however, are also one of the top threats to whales around the world and remain a significant source of air pollution for many communities. Onshore prevailing winds push ship exhaust into California coastal communities, where cargo ships can account for 50% or more of counties’ air pollution (notably, smog-forming nitrogen oxides (NOx)). Commercial shipping is also a significant source of ocean noise pollution, which can disrupt marine animals’ capacity to communicate, navigate and forage.

However, when large vessels slow from baseline speeds of 15 knots to 10 knots or less, the risk of a fatal strike to whales is reduced by approximately 50%. Air pollution and emissions are also reduced by almost a third, and underwater radiated noise pressure is significantly lowered.

Recognizing the array of environmental benefits offered by Vessel Speed Reduction (VSR), for the past decade BWBS has verified and encouraged global shipping lines’ cooperation with voluntary, seasonal VSR requests for transit speeds at whale-safer 10 knots within set zones from May to December during peak endangered whale and smog seasons. The BWBS partners and VSR zones have consistently grown over time, from Point Conception and the Port Complex of Los Angeles and Long Beach to Dana Point to Point Arena including all 5 national marine sanctuaries off California.

From 2014 to 2024 the program resulted in:

• 1,596,008 nautical miles of whale-safer transits
• 5,900 tons of smog-forming NOx emissions avoided
• 200,000 metric tons of regional greenhouse gas emissions avoided
• 4.1-decibel reduction in participating vessels source levels
• 50% reduction in fatal ship strike risk

In 2022, to help drive awareness around and support for responsible shipping, the program opened to ambassadors — entities that import/export or work with participating shipping lines. There are now 31 ambassadors, from leading brands like Patagonia, Peak Design, Nomad, Huffy, Santa Cruz Bicycles, Deckers Brands, Toad&Co and Sonos, to the Port of Oakland and Port of Hueneme, to logistics and freight forwarding companies including JAS Worldwide, The Block Logistics and ShipCo Transport, to emissions capture and control companies like STAX Engineering.

What’s Next?

The existing program covers key transits and shipping lanes for vessels transiting up and down a large portion of coast, with Ventura, Santa Barbara County, and San Luis Obispo County Air Pollution Control Districts, Monterey Bay Air Resources District, and Bay Area Air District partnering in the effort to protect public health. However, all Californians and whales off our coast deserve the same benefits afforded by the program. The same ships and whales protected in the current VSR zones also transit and migrate off San Diego, Morro Bay and the north coast. With AB 14 signed into law, BWBS will expand geographically and expand its impact:

1. It brings an important state agency, the Ocean Protection Council, into the partnership;

2. It authorizes expansion consistent with key program elements to date — voluntary cooperation, verification and quantification of environmental benefits, and acknowledgement of industry leadership; and

3. Program expansion will not interfere with any other existing port-related VSR programs.

Next Steps:

BWBS sincerely values the insights of mariners. BWBS is working to ensure the shipping industry’s operational, safety, and other factors inform program expansion plans alongside protecting air quality and whales.

Industry members are invited to participate in a brief survey, which can be found here. As a second option, interested parties are welcome to also submit feedback here.

For more information on how to sign up your shipping line or join as a program ambassador, email info@bluewhalesblueskies.org, and sign up for our newsletter here.

BWBS partners include: California Marine Sanctuary Foundation; Channel Islands, Chumash Heritage, Monterey Bay, Greater Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries; Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory; Ventura, Santa BarbaraCounty,  and San Luis Obispo County Air Pollution Control Districts; Monterey Bay Air Resources District; and the Bay Area Air District. BWBS’ success would not be possible without the strong engagement of our participating shipping lines, ambassadors and their collaborative efforts to protect whales and coastal air quality. Read more here: bluewhalesblueskies.org/impact/

This message is sponsored by BWBS. 

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

Raw materials from CO

A synthetic key enzyme enables the conversion of CO₂ into formic acid

Max-Planck-Gesellschaft

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High-throughput devices can dramatically accelerate research. Here, 96 samples are tested at once for the enzymatic conversion of formate to formaldehyde—recognizable by the yellow color change.

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Credit: MPI f. Terrestrial Microbiology/ Franka Eiche

For a carbon-neutral bioeconomy, processes are needed that can efficiently capture CO2 and convert it into valuable products. Formic acid, or more specifically its salt, formate, is considered a promising candidate as it can be produced from CO₂ using renewable electricity. It is also easy to transport, non-toxic and versatile. Research is focusing, among other things, on microorganisms that are 'fed' formic acid made from CO₂ and use it to produce basic chemicals or fuels.

A team led by Maren Nattermann at the Max Planck Institute for Terrestrial Microbiology has developed a synthetic enzyme designed to perform the central conversion step with precision and stability in a single enzymatic process. This builds on previous research in which the team established a fully synthetic formyl phosphate pathway was established in bacteria.

Synthetic metabolic pathway

Until now, only certain bacteria have been able to utilize formic acid. Natural metabolic pathways bypass the intermediate product formaldehyde, which is an important starting point for integrating CO₂ into cellular metabolism. The researchers constructed an artificial bridge in the form of a synthetic formyl phosphate metabolic pathway, which they incorporated into living E. coli bacteria. Cooperation partner Sebastian Wenk (Project leader, University of Groningen) explains: 'Our work showed that a synthetic metabolic pathway for processing formate works in living organisms — a significant step towards developing biotechnologically useful microorganisms that can use formate obtained from CO₂ to produce food, fuels and materials.' The formaldehyde is immediately processed by the cell and does not accumulate.

However, the connection to cellular metabolism must be robust — after all, it is competing with well-established natural metabolism that has evolved over millions of years. Until now, researchers have only been able to develop complex, fragile, multi-step enzymatic cascades that release sensitive intermediate products, such as formyl phosphate or formyl-CoA, which are prone to breaking down or entering undesirable side reactions.  From a biotechnological perspective, the goal is a 'full formate diet' in which bacteria grow exclusively on formic acid, without the need for costly additives.

Tailor-made enzyme

Recently, the group achieved a decisive breakthrough with a tailor-made formate reductase enzyme that can convert formic acid to formaldehyde precisely and robustly. This enzyme, known as FAR (formate reductase), is based on a carboxylic acid reductase (CAR) found in the bacterium Mycobacteroides abscessus. This enzyme was modified through targeted mutagenesis and high-throughput screening to preferentially select small molecules such as formate. "With FAR, we now have a single, robust enzyme that reliably reduces formate to formaldehyde — exactly where many biotechnological pathways begin," explains Nattermann. 'This provides us with a missing building block for future bioconversions based directly on CO₂-based raw materials.'

'The most important thing is that our enzyme tolerates high concentrations of formate, whereas previous systems failed completely under these conditions,' adds Philipp Wichmann, the study's first author. It is precisely this stability that makes FAR attractive for industrial processes in which formate is produced electrochemically in very high concentrations. Without the use of high-throughput methods, this result would not have been achievable in such a short time. ‘After screening around 4,000 variants, we achieved a fivefold increase in formaldehyde production,’ explains Nattermann.

FAR is now an enzyme that can be used in both living cells and cell-free systems, as well as in electrobiochemical production lines. In the future, basic chemicals, bioplastics or fuels could be produced from CO₂-based formate. The researchers are already planning to combine FAR with other synthetic metabolic pathways, for example, to produce energy-rich molecules.

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Journal

ACS Catalysis

Article Title

Engineering a Formic Acid Reductase

Fossil fuel industry’s “climate false solutions” reinforce its power and aggravate environmental injustice 

Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona

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Many so-called low-carbon projects promoted by major oil and gas companies — including hydrogen, biofuels, carbon capture and storage, and carbon offsetting — operate as false solutions that not only fail to effectively reduce emissions, but also prolong the lifespan of fossil fuel infrastructures, entrench environmental injustices, and reinforce the political and economic power of the very industry responsible for the climate crisis. This is demonstrated by a study conducted by the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), in collaboration with the University of Sussex, based on 48 cases of environmental conflicts around the world. 

Published in Energy Research & Social Science, the study denounces how fossil fuel incumbents increasingly portray themselves as “part of the solution” to the climate emergency, with the primary aim of neutralizing social, legal and political pressures calling for a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels. According to the authors, this incumbent strategy allows companies to keep expanding and connecting their pipelines, refineries and thermal power plants with new hydrogen, biofuel or carbon-capture infrastructures, thereby justifying the continued operation of fossil fuel infrastructures for decades. An example is the H2Med gas pipeline planned between Barcelona and Marseille. It is justified by the need to transport hydrogen, but it could also be used to transport fossil gas. 

Marcel Llavero Pasquina, researcher at ICTA-UAB, explains that these technologies cannot mitigate climate change unless they replace — and bring an end to — the extraction of oil, gas and coal. “The real climate contribution of these companies should be measured by the fossil fuels they leave unexploited, not by the projects they present as green,” he notes. 

The article concludes that the technologies promoted by fossil fuel companies have not demonstrated the capacity to capture or reduce carbon dioxide at the necessary scale and that, far from improving living conditions, they reproduce environmental injustice: expanding air pollution, land dispossession and the destruction of traditional livelihoods, especially in countries of the Global South. Added to this is the fact that these projects receive generous public subsidies, increasing private profits for initiatives “whose climate effectiveness is limited or doubtful”. 

The research also reveals that many of these false solutions strengthen alliances between fossil fuel incumbents and highly polluting sectors such as aviation, agribusiness and mining, creating new forms of economic dependency that further consolidate the socio-economic power of the fossil fuel industry. 

These incumbent strategies enable oil and gas companies to present themselves as indispensable actors in the energy transition and the decarbonization of society, thereby maintaining their influence over governments, international institutions, financial markets and climate-governance fora. “This narrative that fossil fuel companies are ‘part of the solution’ is essential for preserving their legitimacy and avoiding deep transformations that challenge their power and extractive model,” says Llavero-Pasquina. 

Research Associate Freddie Daley said: “Our study shows that false solutions are not the result of technological accidents or experimental missteps - they are deliberate strategies from the fossil fuel industry to delay the end of the fossil fuel era. They give the appearance of progress while keeping the underlying system intact at a considerable cost to our environment and climate. 

"If governments are serious about meeting their international and national climate commitments, they must stop treating delay as innovation and stop rewarding companies for repackaging old extractive practices as climate action.", he says. 

There is a growing resistance from local communities, Indigenous peoples and environmental justice movements worldwide, who denounce these initiatives as false solutions that fail to address the structural drivers of the climate and environmental crisis, such as socio-economic inequalities, neocolonialism and the expansion of industrial and consumption-based economies. 

The study warns that the integration of these false solutions into public policies and energy markets may block real transformations within the global energy system, and consolidate the power and interests of fossil fuel incumbents at a critical moment for decarbonization. The authors highlight the urgent need to rethink the regulation and role of these technologies to prevent the energy transition from being captured by those seeking to perpetuate the fossil fuel model. 

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Journal

Energy Research & Social Science

DOI

10.1016/j.erss.2025.104367 

Method of Research

Case study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

False solutions: How do fossil fuel companies reproduce their power through the energy transition

Article Publication Date

13-Dec-2025

Unlock the power of nature: how biomass can transform climate mitigation

Biochar Editorial Office, Shenyang Agricultural University

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Bio-based Carbon Capture: The Role of Biomass in Climate Mitigation

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Credit: Dato’ Dr. Agamutu Pariatamby FASc

You're invited! Join us for a free, live online webinar featuring Prof. Dato’ Dr. Agamutu Pariatamby FASc, Senior Professor and globally recognized expert in sustainable waste and climate solutions from the Jeffrey Sachs Center on Sustainable Development at Sunway University, Malaysia.

When: December 17 (Wednesday), 2025

• Malaysia Time (MYT): 10:00 AM
• China Standard Time (CST): 10:00 AM
• Greenwich Mean Time (GMT): 2:00 AM
• Eastern Standard Time (EST, US & Canada): 9:00 PM (Dec 16)

Where: Your screen! (Live via Zoom)

Hosted by: Prof. Siming You, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom

Topic:

Bio-based Carbon Capture: The Role of Biomass in Climate Mitigation

Did you know? Biomass isn’t just renewable energy—it’s one of Earth’s most powerful natural tools for pulling carbon out of the atmosphere. While fossil-based approaches dominate headlines, nature-based solutions like biochar, BECCS, composting, agroforestry, and regenerative agriculture offer scalable, equitable, and immediate pathways to net-zero.

In this compelling session, Prof. Dato’ Dr. Agamutu Pariatamby FASc will unpack how bio-based carbon capture could deliver up to 6.7 gigatonnes of CO₂-equivalent mitigation annually by 2050 (IPCC, 2022). You’ll discover:

• How BECCS alone could remove 3.5–5.0 GtCO₂e/year, while biochar adds another 1.1–3.3 GtCO₂e/year
• Why enhancing soil organic carbon (SOC) through compost and biochar boosts fertility, water retention, and climate resilience by 10–40%
• How decentralized biomass systems can cut landfill waste by 30–50%, power rural communities with biogas and bio-CNG, and create 70–100 green jobs per 10,000 tonnes of processed biomass
• The triple win of circular farming: 20–40% less fertilizer, 15–25% lower costs, and 10–25% higher yields

Whether you’re a scientist, policymaker, sustainability professional, student, or climate advocate, this talk will reshape how you see the role of biomass—not just as waste, but as a cornerstone of a just, resilient, and decarbonized future.

 

It’s free. It’s global. And it’s happening live.

Don’t miss this opportunity to learn from one of Asia’s leading voices in sustainable development and climate action.

Register now to secure your spot:

https://forms.gle/4q6RK8QYfwTeJWRq5

Or join directly via Zoom:

• Meeting ID: 615 672 5359
• Passcode: 123456
• Link: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/6156725359?pwd=OGtWRlQ1Rk5uRVFnN2JJQk93SVp6dz09&omn=89260632953

Bring a colleague. Share the link. Let’s scale nature-based climate solutions—together.

See you online!

 

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About Carbon Research

The journal Carbon Research is an international multidisciplinary platform for communicating advances in fundamental and applied research on natural and engineered carbonaceous materials that are associated with ecological and environmental functions, energy generation, and global change. It is a fully Open Access (OA) journal and the Article Publishing Charges (APC) are waived until Dec 31, 2025. It is dedicated to serving as an innovative, efficient and professional platform for researchers in the field of carbon functions around the world to deliver findings from this rapidly expanding field of science. The journal is currently indexed by Scopus and Ei Compendex, and as of June 2025, the dynamic CiteScore value is 15.4.

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About Biochar

Biochar is the first journal dedicated exclusively to biochar research, spanning agronomy, environmental science, and materials science. It publishes original studies on biochar production, processing, and applications—such as bioenergy, environmental remediation, soil enhancement, climate mitigation, water treatment, and sustainability analysis. The journal serves as an innovative and professional platform for global researchers to share advances in this rapidly expanding field. 

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