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Monday, July 20, 2026

Asia’s Peoples Call for Sovereignty and Solidarity

Source: Originally published by Z. Feel free to share widely.

On 4 March 2026, a US military vessel torpedoed and sunk the unarmed Iranian frigate IRIS Dena off the southern coast of Sri Lanka. The illegal strike killed over 80 and injured over 30 Iranian sailors, who were returning home after participating in the Indian Navy’s flagship biennial multilateral naval drill, Exercise MILAN, and the International Fleet Review, in Visakhapatnam.

The Sri Lankan authorities mobilised to rescue the sailors and grant them safe passage. The sinking of the IRIS Dena by a torpedo strike is the first such incident since World Anti-Fascist War (World War II), and a significant escalation of the New Cold War in Asia.

Ironically, the attack coincided with the 55th anniversary of the UN declaration of the Indian Ocean as a Zone of Peace – a proposal championed by Sri Lanka and Tanzania in the heyday of the Non-Aligned Movement.

Centre of Gravity

Asia today sits at the heart of a New Cold War being imposed by the US on the region. With the People Republic of China as its principal engine, the centre of gravity of the world economy has shifted to Asia. Asia is home to approximately 60 percent of the world population. Between 2015 and 2025, the region contributed to 70 percent of global economic growth. Much of this growth has been driven by production – over 57 percent of world manufacturing value added come from Asia.

While industrial success has brought significant gains in social indicators, it has also been uneven, often failing to transcend peripheralisation. In 2022, Sri Lanka became the first country in Asia to default on its sovereign debt in the 21st century – Sri Lanka is now undergoing its 17th IMG programme. According to the World Bank, nine countries in Asia are in debt distress, and 6 are undergoing IMF programmes. Despite its economic weight, Asia remains dependent on the dollar and lacks regional alternatives to the Bretton Woods institutions.

Flood and Fury

Today, West Asia has become home to one of the most acute humanitarian crises of the 21st century – the ongoing genocide of Palestinians in Gaza, which is perpetrated by the state of Israel with the backing of the United States and Europe. Over 70,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli strikes since 7 October 2023. The life expectancy in Gaza has nearly halved from 75 to 40 years.

The war on Gaza has escalated into a regional war, intensified by the fall of the Baathist government in Syria and the rise of US-backed government of Ahmed al-Sharaa. Israeli strikes have expanded to southern Lebanon and, with US backing, to Iran, in total violation of international law. The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September 202 and Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei in February 2026 marked significant escalations of imperialist aggression in the region. Yet the resistance of the Iranian people reveals the desperation of imperialism which struggles to achieve its political goals despite use of arms.

The Double Bind

Asia is enmeshed in a garland of over 270 US military bases. These bases stretch from the Persian Gulf states in the west, to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, to the chain of bases along Philippines, South Korea, Japan, Guam, and the Marshall Islands in the east. These bases are supplemented by a complex network of partnerships and military agreements such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad (2017), AUKUS (2021), the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (2021), and the US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral Agreement (2023).

This military architecture is part of the US ‘strategy of denial’ designed to encircle China and constrain its development. The contradiction at the heart of the strategy is that the hosts of US bases and partners of these agreements themselves have a strong measure of economic interdependency with China. The US drive towards militarisation therefore creates tensions rather than resolving them and diverts precious resources into the pockets of military contractors rather than investment in education, healthcare, infrastructure and production. Peace and development in Asia require a strategy of regionalism and multilateralism, led by the peoples of the region.

The ‘Gen Z’ Question

Amid war in West Asia and militarisation in the East Asia, the political and economic crises in South Asia have been multiplying. The crisis of neoliberalism has led to uprisings toppling governments in Sri Lanka (2022), Bangladesh (2024), and Nepal (2025). These uprisings have been attributed to the amorphous category of ‘Gen Z’, which masks more than it reveals. Slogans about corruption, nepotism, and authoritarianism reveal deep discontent, but stop short of identifying the principal contradiction of imperialism and its economic structures.

In reality, the countries of South Asia are witnessing social discontent driven by youth unemployment, rural-agrarian crises, climate change, and migration. The resulting social embers pose opportunities for social transformation or imperialist co-option. In Nepal and Bangladesh, these uprisings have led to a drift towards the right. In Sri Lanka, the left eventually came to political power but has been unable to advance an alternative economic agenda.

Hands off Asia!

It is in this context that the International People’s Assembly, with the support of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research, hosts the “Hands off Asia! A People’s Call for Sovereignty and Solidarity” in Colombo on 16, 17, and 18 July. The conference brings together, movement leaders, scholars, and diplomats from seventeen countries across the region in a dialogue about the pressing issues of the current conjuncture.

The conference aims to: 1. Build a shared understanding of the imperial attack on Asia; 2. Create a space where movements, parties, people’s organisations, and thinkers can share their experiences of struggle and build lasting working relationships, 3. Develop a shared programme of demands; 4. Deepen the political understanding of Asian organisations by connecting everyday struggles to the bigger picture of imperial domination; and 5. Produce a more nuanced and cohesive understanding that can guide the next stage of united anti-imperialist work across the continent.

The people of Asia know the cost of imperialism and remember the many historic struggles and revolutions across Asia – from the Arab Revolt (1917–1918), to the Chinese Revolution (1949), to Vietnam’s Resistance War Against the US (1955–1975). The same fight against imperialism is being waged today on many fronts, from Gaza to Colombo to Okinawa. Hands off Asia!Email

Balram Banskota is a veteran communist and a leader of the Nepali Communist Party.

Why Did the Largest Global Anti-War Movement Fail to Become a New Anti-Imperialist Internationalism?

Source: Originally published by Z. Feel free to share widely.

Introduction

Since October 7, 2023, the world has witnessed one of the largest waves of protest since the Iraq War. Student encampments emerged from Columbia University to Berkeley, and from Amsterdam to London. Dockworkers in Oakland refused to load ships carrying weapons destined for Israel. In December 2023, South Africa brought a case against Israel before the International Court of Justice in The Hague, alleging that Israel’s actions in Gaza constituted genocide. As the conflict expanded to Lebanon, Yemen, and eventually to direct military confrontation involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, what many left-wing analysts had warned about for years became increasingly visible: a regional war was no longer a theoretical possibility but an unfolding reality. Yet when we examine the political consequences of this period, an uncomfortable question confronts the global Left. Millions of people took to the streets. Solidarity with Palestine became a shared political language across generations. Public opinion in many Western countries, especially among younger generations, became increasingly critical of the foreign policies pursued by their own governments. And yet, despite the scale of these mobilizations, no global anti-war front emerged, no durable political structure was created, and no new internationalism capable of challenging imperial power was born from these struggles. The question of this article is therefore not simply: why did the Left fail to unite? The deeper question is: why did the largest global wave of opposition to war in recent decades fail to become the foundation for a renewed anti-imperialist internationalism? From a Marxist perspective, the answer cannot be reduced to disagreements among left organizations or personal conflicts between political leaders. The roots of this failure lie in deeper historical transformations: the structural crisis of global capitalism, the decline of US hegemony, the weakening of working-class organizations, and the internal transformations of the Left itself over the past four decades.

The Organizational Crisis of the Left

The first and perhaps most fundamental reason for this failure is the erosion of the organizational infrastructure of the global Left. Previous anti-war movements — from the struggle against the Vietnam War to the anti-colonial movements of the 1960s and 1970s — relied on networks of communist parties, powerful trade unions, liberation movements, and international political organizations. These structures had many limitations and contradictions, but they provided something that is largely absent today: the ability to transform street mobilization into a sustained political strategy. Today, much of this infrastructure has disappeared or has been severely weakened. Trade unions, after four decades of neoliberal restructuring, have lost membership, bargaining power, and much of their ability to coordinate international action. In Britain, union density has fallen from around half the workforce in the late 1970s to roughly a quarter today; in the United States it stands even lower, at about ten percent of wage and salary workers. In many countries, organized labor has been pushed from a central political force into a defensive position, struggling simply to preserve gains made during earlier periods of working-class organization. The movements of recent years have largely taken a different form: decentralized, network-based, and organized through digital platforms. They are often extremely effective at mobilizing thousands or even millions of people quickly, yet they frequently lack the institutions necessary to transform social anger into lasting political power. The student encampments of spring 2024 demonstrated this contradiction clearly. They showed remarkable courage and political consciousness, but they were primarily temporary coalitions of student organizations, religious groups, and human rights activists rather than a class-based political front with a common long-term strategy beyond immediate campus demands. Resistance, in short, was never lacking. What was consistently missing was the organizational form capable of carrying that resistance forward.

The Tension Between Identity and Class Politics

The second factor concerns the transformation of political organization within the contemporary Left. Over recent decades, a significant part of progressive politics has increasingly organized around questions of identity, recognition, and representation rather than primarily around class relations and the structures of global capitalism. This transformation did not occur without historical reasons. Struggles against racism, patriarchy, colonial legacies, and different forms of social exclusion have been genuine emancipatory movements. They have achieved important victories and expanded the meaning of equality and justice. Any serious left politics must recognize that class exploitation does not exist separately from racial, gender, national, and cultural forms of oppression. The difficulty emerges when identity-based struggles become disconnected from a broader structural analysis of power. When political movements understand oppression mainly through separate categories of identity rather than through the social relations, economic structures, and global systems that reproduce inequality, their capacity to build broad and durable alliances is weakened. The Palestinian question, for example, cannot be fully understood only through competing identities or national narratives. It must also be analyzed through the structures of settler colonialism, military occupation, global arms production, capitalist interests, and geopolitical competition. Likewise, the confrontation with Iran cannot be understood only through the language of competing states or security threats. It belongs to a longer history of Western intervention in the Middle East, struggles over strategic resources, and attempts to preserve geopolitical influence in a region central to global capitalism. A sustainable anti-imperialist movement requires a politics capable of connecting different struggles through a common structural understanding: bringing together workers’ movements, feminist struggles, environmental campaigns, anti-racist mobilizations, and anti-war activism without reducing any of them to secondary issues. The challenge for the contemporary Left is therefore not to reject identity-based struggles, but to integrate them into a broader project of social emancipation — recovering the historical capacity of Marxist politics to connect different forms of oppression to a wider critique of the capitalist world system, while remaining attentive to the real experiences of marginalized communities.

The Crisis of the Concept of Imperialism

A third and perhaps decisive obstacle is the unresolved debate within the Left itself over the meaning of imperialism. In the Marxist tradition, particularly following Lenin’s analysis of imperialism as a stage of capitalist development, imperialism is not simply the foreign policy of one particular state. It refers to a global system in which capital accumulation, financial power, military expansion, and geopolitical domination shape relations among states and classes. Yet the contemporary Left remains deeply divided over how this concept should be applied to the present world system. One current, drawing from classical anti-imperialist traditions, identifies the United States and its major allies as the central forces of contemporary imperial domination, emphasizing the history of colonialism, military interventions, sanctions, regime-change operations, and the global network of US military power. Another current argues that imperialism cannot be reduced to Western power alone. Drawing on a more complex understanding of the world system, it maintains that multiple states — from Russia and China to regional powers in the Middle East — can participate in relations of domination and military expansion, and that no state should be exempt from criticism simply because it challenges Washington. This debate, which deeply divided the Left during the war in Ukraine, has reappeared during the crises in Gaza and Iran. For some sections of the Left, any force confronting US power is automatically placed within an anti-imperialist framework. For others, this approach risks replacing Marxist analysis with geopolitical campism — the assumption that the enemy of one’s enemy must necessarily represent a progressive alternative. A genuine anti-imperialist perspective must avoid both positions. It must recognize the historical and structural role of Western imperial power, particularly the military, financial, and political dominance exercised by the United States and its allies. At the same time, it must maintain an independent critique of all forms of domination, including those exercised by non-Western and regional powers. As Lenin’s analysis reminds us, imperialism is rooted in structures of capital and power, not merely in the identity of particular governments. Applying this insight today requires a concrete analysis of the global system rather than a mechanical repetition of twentieth-century political alignments. A Marxist approach must therefore hold two principles together: opposition to imperial domination by the major capitalist powers, and opposition to all forms of exploitation, oppression, and militarism regardless of which state exercises them. This dialectical position is more politically demanding than choosing one geopolitical camp against another. But without such independence, the Left loses its ability to offer a genuine alternative to the logic of great-power competition.

The Political Economy of War

Another dimension of the problem is the economic foundation of contemporary warfare. Wars are not only the result of political decisions made by governments; they are also embedded in material interests and structures of accumulation. The military-industrial complex, particularly in the core capitalist states, has developed into a powerful network connecting arms manufacturers, financial institutions, security industries, and state bureaucracies. The scale of this system is not abstract: US military spending alone now exceeds $850 billion a year, more than the next several largest military budgets in the world combined, and major contractors such as Lockheed Martin and RTX have reported record order backlogs during precisely the years of escalation in Gaza, Ukraine, and the Gulf. The continuation of permanent war is therefore not simply an accident of politics. Military budgets, weapons contracts, and security industries represent enormous flows of capital, and for the institutions connected to these sectors, instability itself can become a source of profit and accumulation. This does not mean that every war can be reduced mechanically to economic interests. Political conflicts, historical experiences, national struggles, and ideological factors all play a role. But a Marxist analysis must still ask a fundamental question: who benefits materially from the continuation of militarization, and who pays its costs? The answer is clear: the costs of war are carried overwhelmingly by ordinary people, while the economic benefits are concentrated among a narrow set of powerful institutions and corporations. This is why anti-war politics cannot be separated from struggles against neoliberalism and economic inequality. The same governments that claim there are insufficient resources for healthcare, housing, education, and environmental protection often find enormous resources for military expansion. War and austerity are not separate realities. They are two expressions of a system that prioritizes capital accumulation over human needs.

Media Power and the Battle Over Meaning

Contemporary imperial power is maintained not only through military force, economic domination, and political influence, but also through the ability to shape narratives and define reality. Every war is simultaneously a battle over territory and a battle over meaning. The war in Gaza once again demonstrated the centrality of this struggle. While images of destruction, displacement, and civilian suffering reached millions of people worldwide, much of the mainstream media in Western countries framed the conflict primarily through the language of security, terrorism, and the “right of self-defense.” The broader historical context — decades of occupation, settler colonialism, unequal relations of power, and the political and military support provided by Western governments — was often marginalized or treated as secondary. This reflects what Edward Herman and Noam Chomsky described as the structural filtering of media systems: the ways in which ownership concentration, economic interests, and reliance on official sources shape dominant narratives about international conflicts. Criticizing this media framework does not mean denying the complexity of political realities or ignoring violence committed by different actors. The issue is how dominant institutions construct a hierarchy of legitimacy: whose violence is described as security, whose resistance is described as terrorism, and whose suffering becomes politically visible. As Antonio Gramsci argued, ruling powers maintain their influence not only through coercion but also by transforming particular interests into common sense. Hegemony operates by making a specific interpretation of reality appear natural, neutral, and unquestionable. The challenge for the anti-imperialist Left is therefore not only to oppose wars, but also to challenge the ideological frameworks that normalize them. Digital platforms have created unprecedented opportunities for exposing official narratives and mobilizing public opinion. Yet they have not automatically produced durable political organizations. They are often shaped by short attention cycles and temporary moments of visibility rather than long-term collective strategy. This creates one of the central contradictions of our era: the world is more connected than ever before, yet the political organizations capable of transforming this connection into historical power remain weak.

A World System in Transition: Hegemonic Decline and the Meaning of Gaza

The failure of the anti-war movement to become a global anti-imperialist force must be understood within the broader crisis of the world system. The wars and conflicts of recent years — Gaza, Ukraine, Yemen, Syria, and the escalating confrontation surrounding Iran — are not isolated events. They are interconnected expressions of a deeper transformation: the crisis of the US-led global order and the emergence of a more unstable and contested international system. As Immanuel Wallerstein argued, periods of hegemonic decline are not necessarily periods of peace. On the contrary, they are often marked by uncertainty, instability, and intensified competition among forces seeking to shape the future of the world system. The United States remains the most powerful military and financial actor in the world. However, its ability to impose a stable global order has weakened. At the same time, emerging powers and regional actors challenge aspects of US dominance without necessarily offering a fundamentally different social or economic alternative. This period of transition creates conditions in which military solutions become increasingly attractive to ruling elites. When economic contradictions deepen and political legitimacy declines, states often rely more heavily on military power, security institutions, and external conflicts as mechanisms for maintaining influence. The Middle East has become one of the central arenas of this struggle precisely because of its strategic importance: energy resources, trade routes, military positioning, and geopolitical influence. From this perspective, Gaza was not only a humanitarian catastrophe — although it was undeniably that. It also revealed fundamental contradictions within the existing global order, exposing the gap between claims of a “rules-based international system” and the selective application of those rules according to geopolitical interests. This contradiction created a historic opportunity for the Left.

Why Gaza Represented a Historic Opportunity for the Left

Despite its organizational weaknesses, the response to Gaza demonstrated that the social foundations for a renewed internationalism still exist. A new generation shaped by the financial crisis of 2008, the climate crisis, and the failures of neoliberal globalization entered political struggle on a global scale. University campuses across the United States and Europe became centers of protest. Students challenged their universities’ relationships with weapons manufacturers and demanded political accountability. At the same time, the actions of workers connected to global supply chains pointed toward another possibility: the partial return of class politics to anti-war struggles. The refusal of dockworkers in Oakland to participate in the shipment of weapons to Israel, although limited in scale, offered a glimpse of the strategic importance workers can hold. Unlike symbolic protest alone, labor has the potential to intervene directly in the material networks through which war is produced and sustained. However, it would be an exaggeration to describe these events as a full return of class politics. They should instead be understood as important signs of a possibility that the Left has yet to transform into a broader and repeatable strategy. The Global South, meanwhile, played an increasingly independent role in challenging Western narratives. South Africa’s legal action at the International Court of Justice brought the language of genocide back to the center of international debate and symbolized a broader demand for a more equal global order. Across Africa, Latin America, and Asia, many societies expressed growing skepticism toward Western claims of moral authority in international affairs. As Wallerstein’s analysis of world-system crisis suggests, moments of hegemonic instability can also become moments of political opening. Yet this enormous social energy remained fragmented. The problem was not the absence of solidarity. The problem was the absence of political organization capable of transforming solidarity into lasting international power. Yet organizational fragmentation is not the only obstacle the Left must confront. Even where organization exists, movements have often struggled to say clearly what they are for, and not only what they oppose.

The Crisis of Political Imagination

Beyond organizational weakness, the Left also faces a deeper crisis: a crisis of political imagination. The decline of twentieth-century socialist projects, combined with the ideological dominance of neoliberalism, has narrowed political horizons across much of the world. Many contemporary movements have become highly effective at resisting specific injustices — opposing wars, defending communities, challenging discrimination, and exposing abuses of power — but they often struggle to articulate a coherent vision of a different social order. Resistance has become easier to imagine than transformation. This is one of the central contradictions of the current moment. Millions of people can recognize the failures of the existing system: endless wars, growing inequality, ecological destruction, and the concentration of wealth and power. Yet many movements lack a shared language for describing what should replace that system. For the Left, anti-imperialism cannot exist only as opposition. It must also represent a positive project: a vision of international cooperation, economic justice, democratic control over resources, ecological sustainability, and a world order based on human needs rather than competition among states and accumulation of capital. Without such a horizon, movements risk becoming cycles of resistance that challenge individual crises but fail to transform the structures producing those crises. The task is therefore not only to rebuild organizations but also to rebuild political imagination. A new internationalism must answer not only the question of what we are against, but also what kind of world we are trying to create.

Building a New Anti-Imperialist Internationalism

The central lesson of the recent period is that protest alone is not enough. The millions who demonstrated against the war in Gaza showed that the desire for justice, solidarity, and peace remains alive. The missing element was never popular will; it was the organizational capacity to convert that will into a coherent historical force. History demonstrates that major social transformations rarely emerge from spontaneous mobilization alone. Movements become capable of changing society when they develop organizations, institutions, political education, and long-term strategies. The challenge for the Left today is therefore not simply to mobilize against individual wars, but to rebuild the organizational foundations of international solidarity. A new anti-imperialist internationalism cannot be a mechanical repetition of the political structures of the twentieth century. The world has changed. The working class is more globally dispersed, production has been reorganized through global supply chains, digital technologies have transformed communication, and ecological crises have become central political questions. Yet the fundamental principles remain relevant: opposition to domination, resistance to militarism, solidarity among oppressed peoples, and the struggle for a social order based on human needs rather than capital accumulation.

Reconnecting Anti-War Politics with Class Struggle

The most important challenge for the future Left is rebuilding the connection between anti-war politics and working-class organization. One weakness of many contemporary anti-war movements is that they often remain separated from the everyday economic struggles of ordinary people. Yet war and social inequality are deeply connected. Military budgets are not abstract figures. They represent resources diverted away from healthcare, housing, education, and environmental protection. The same economic system that produces precarious employment and growing inequality also produces permanent militarization. For this reason, trade unions must once again become central actors in the struggle against war. The power of workers lies not only in their numbers but in their position within the production system itself. Workers in ports, transportation, logistics, and military industries occupy strategic positions in the networks that make modern warfare possible. Their collective action has the potential to challenge the material foundations of militarization. The experience of dockworkers in Oakland should therefore be understood carefully: not as evidence that a new global labor movement against war has already emerged, but as an important example of the possibilities that exist when class power intersects with anti-imperialist politics. The essential question facing the Left is not only how we protest against war, but how we organize those whose labor makes war possible. Without this connection, opposition to militarism risks remaining symbolic rather than transformative. A renewed anti-war movement must therefore move beyond moral condemnation alone and build alliances capable of disrupting the economic and political structures that sustain militarization.

Beyond Fragmentation: Rebuilding the Political Independence of the Left

The future of the Left depends on overcoming two opposing dangers. The first is geopolitical campism: the idea that world politics can be reduced to a struggle between rival states, and that opposition to one imperial power automatically places another force on the side of emancipation. The second is a liberal internationalism that condemns certain forms of violence while ignoring the structural realities of capitalism, imperialism, and global inequality. A renewed Left must reject both approaches. It must recognize the continuing central role of Western imperial power and the historical consequences of colonialism, military intervention, and unequal global structures. At the same time, it must maintain a critical position toward all forms of domination, including those exercised by regional and non-Western powers. This independent perspective is not a political luxury. It is the foundation of any genuine emancipatory project. The historical mission of the Left has never been merely to choose one side in conflicts among ruling elites. Its task has been to develop an alternative grounded in the interests of working people and oppressed communities across borders. The Left cannot rebuild internationalism by becoming an extension of any state’s geopolitical strategy. A genuine anti-imperialist politics must place human emancipation above geopolitical alignment. It must defend the right of peoples to determine their own futures while simultaneously opposing occupation, domination, exploitation, and authoritarianism wherever they appear. This is a more difficult political position than simply choosing sides in conflicts among states. But it is precisely this independence that gives anti-imperialism its transformative potential.

Conclusion: Crisis, Possibility, and the Future of Internationalism

The wars in Gaza, Yemen, Syria, Ukraine, and the escalating confrontation surrounding Iran reveal a deeper reality: global capitalism, facing economic contradictions and a crisis of hegemony, increasingly relies on militarization, coercion, and conflict as mechanisms of power. At the same time, the response of millions around the world has demonstrated that the desire for solidarity and resistance has not disappeared. The streets, universities, workplaces, and social movements have shown that the social foundations for a renewed internationalism still exist. What was missing was not the will of ordinary people. What was missing was the political organization capable of transforming that will into a coherent historical force. The crisis of the Left today is therefore not only a crisis of ideas. It is a crisis of organization, strategy, and international coordination. If the Left fails to learn from this moment, future wars and crises may once again produce mass protests without producing lasting political transformation. But if it can draw the necessary lessons — the need for organization, the need for class politics beyond fragmentation, the need for political imagination, and the need for an independent anti-imperialist perspective — then this period of crisis may become the beginning of a new chapter in the history of international solidarity. As Antonio Gramsci argued, periods of crisis are moments when the old order is dying while the new has not yet been born. Such moments contain both danger and possibility. The future is not predetermined. The same crises that can lead to greater militarism, authoritarianism, and barbarism can also create openings for new struggles for emancipation. The central question facing the Left in the twenty-first century is whether it can build the international movement capable of transforming resistance into a durable historical force.Email

Majid Maleki Meighani, (sometimes writing under the name Majid Maleki), is an Iranian political analyst, writer, and translator. He was imprisoned for his political activities. His work focuses on critical analysis of Iran’s labor movement, the political left, anti-imperialist critiques of geopolitics, and social movements in West Asia and the Global South. His analysis is grounded in direct fieldwork and interviews within local communities. He has translated into Persian Walter LaFeber’s Inevitable Revolutions: The United States in Central America and the collection Voices of the Arab Spring. He has been a contributor to ZNetwork, Tribune Zamane, and Akhbar-e Rooz. You can access his full body of work on his author page on ZNetwork.

Sunday, July 19, 2026

No Path Forward, No Way Back, Imperial Decline Edition



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 July 17, 2026

When American politicians state that terrorism is a threat, what they need is a mirror and an introductory economics textbook to understand that there are many different ways to destroy a nation. From NAFTA to financialization to crypto grifts, the US has been led from one economic catastrophe to another by people claiming to know what they are doing. While you and I know that AI isn’t going to cause 50% – 60% of the jobs in the US to disappear, what astonishes is that this is considered an acceptable outcome by Donald Trump and the US Congress.

For context, the US unemployment rate at the worst point in the Great Depression was 25%. This led to mass protests, a dramatic rise in the fortunes of organized labor, the White House being surrounded by former soldiers wanting to be paid, and WWII. Most governments begin worry about political instability when unemployment rises to 10%. That Trump and Congress heard the 50% – 60% unemployment projection and still thought AI a brilliant idea is testament to an absence of political accountability. There is something deeply broken in US politics.

Graph: surprise, the class war is real. Illustrated is that capital’s share of national income (GDP) has been rising for five decades as labor’s share has been falling. Oligarchs own the capital stock. Labor owns labor. When payments to capital rise, oligarchs benefit. When payments to labor fall, labor loses. As the graph illustrates, labor has been losing in the US for fifty years. Source: economycharts.

Fifty percent unemployment would instantly overwhelm state unemployment insurance systems. These systems divide their perpetually underfunded pools between the number of people eligible to collect, meaning that no one would receive enough in insurance payouts to survive. Every town, city and state affected would be in full-on economic collapse within a few months. Car loans, student loans and mortgages would no longer be paid. The US would be in full-scale economic collapse within six months.

The political effect of this should in theory be analogous to handing someone an empty gun, telling them that it is loaded, and then forcing them to shoot their spouse. The spouse will live because the gun is empty. But the relationship will have ended the second that the trigger is pulled. Trust will have been permanently broken. With the predicted job destroying impact of AI, Donald Trump and the US Congress pulled the trigger. They are fine with the nation disappearing in a puff of smoke as long as their stock portfolios keep rising. If this reads like ‘America first,’ please chime in.

No government would withstand 50% employment without massive social upheaval. This implies that the current US leadership has no stake in the US beyond what can be extracted through looting. Should this read as harsh, you probably aren’t paying attention. The productivity math rigs the capital versus labor game. Through what are called hedonic adjustments, the value produced by capital (e.g. AI) is systematically overstated. The largest possible value is taken away from labor and assigned to capital.

While Trump has long claimed that he opposed NAFTA, the question now is why? 50% unemployment from AI would be far more socially destructive than NAFTA has thus far been. The ‘capital investment’ theory whereby AI represents an investment in the broader economy falls apart above 8% unemployment. The math has it that at 50% unemployment, a 200% increase in productivity would be needed to avoid an economic decline from AI. Last year, with AI in the mix, this value was 3%. This is not going to happen.

Moreover, the gains from AI (if there ever are any) would be directed to capital while the costs would be borne by the newly unemployed. This is Class Warfare 101. Trump and the ‘communists’ (his term) in Congress see their fortunes being bolstered by destroying the US. But they have the math all wrong. They imagine that the stock market would rise in the midst of 50% unemployment. What they should be imagining is every major city in the US being burnt to the ground by newly immiserated citizens. As the saying goes, three days without food and no government will stand.

Graph: between 1948 and the end of 2025, the annual rate of Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth fell from 4% to 2%. While this might not read as problematic, the US hasn’t prospered outside of finance and tech heavy cities since 1980 or thereabouts (46 years). And financialization means that houses that cost $100,000 twenty years ago cost $400,000 today after ordinary (CPI) inflation has been taken out. This is the flip side of crypto grifts and national stock market obsessions. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve.

The reason why the US is in this mess is because American leaders misread the unique position that the US was in at the end of WWII as evidence that capitalism actually works. What gave the US its economic prowess was geography, history and luck. By the end of WWII, industrial infrastructure abroad lay in ruins. Because the US was far away, lies between two oceans, and joined the war late, its industrial infrastructure was in better condition after the war ended than before it. To confuse this with grace, intelligence or hard work is a category error.

By the 1980s, the choice for the US was between manufacturing and asset stripping. The leadership at the time (Reagan) chose asset stripping (finance capitalism). With crypto grifts now having reached their natural limit, the US rediscovered war as a business plan— but without the manufacturing base needed to turn military production back into a business. When the political leadership represented the interests of the nation, the New Deal, public schools and a functioning healthcare system were possible. With crypto grifts, only more crypto grifts are possible.

That American capitalism has been redefined as using asymmetrical power to arrange circumstances such that guaranteed gains go to the few while the hollowed-out shell of a looted economy is left for the rest of us, is to empty the term of descriptive value. That this is a result of American imperialism turned inward brings to the fore the source of the social logic of looting. Having been educated in neoclassical economics, almost none of what is today called capitalism fits the theories of academic capitalism. In that version, a large and intrusive state is required to keep capitalism ‘capitalist.’

Monopoly power has long been the economic proxy for the political power of capitalism. In neoclassical theory, a powerful and intrusive state is needed to prevent concentrated wealth from closing the door on new competitors. Neoliberalism thus holds the paradoxical view that 1) economic power doesn’t exist but that 2) the purpose of the state is to support the interests of the economically powerful. The result is that economic ‘freedom’ now means the freedom to loot (e.g. crypto grifts) without legal consequences.

Readers may recall the ‘Great Powers’ framing of the contest for power when the US went to war against Russia in 2022. While the frame makes limited sense with respect to China and Russia, it misses that the US no longer ‘does’ the national interest. The evidence: the few dozen oligarchs whose interests Donald Trump represents are willing to see half of the US population be unemployed through the implementation of AI as long as their fortunes are intact. That they are set up to benefit while the rest of us are set up to lose illustrates the predatory nature of this willingness.

In fact, the oligarchs’ interests are antithetical to those of the US. Trump wants to permanently levitate the stock market because it is the source of the oligarch’s fungible wealth. Bartering a coal mine for goods and services is complicated and cumbersome. But selling shares in the coal mine to the public and then cashing in through stock options is easy, quick and rewarded with tax incentives (discounted capital gains tax rate). The richest 1% owns half of the stock market and the richest 10% owns about 90%. The stock market is central to continuing oligarch control.

To date, the promise of AI has been prospective, that if A, B and C happen, AI will produce a social benefit. Maybe. Maybe not. But the people who haven’t yet demonstrated a social benefit are already billionaires. The heads of AI company Anthropic have $15 billion apiece following a recent fundraising round. Do they have a profitable business? No. AI commenter Ed Zitron argues that Anthropic’s margins scale linearly. In other words, costs rise 1:1 with revenues. Implied is that the current trajectory provides no path to profitability. So, in capitalist terms, why are these people rich?

To be clear, the issue isn’t envy over fat wallets. It is concern over the aggregating impact of the mis-allocation of social resources. If the greed-heads want a sixth yacht, who would care except for the social power that their wealth gives them to force their self-serving decisions onto the rest of us. Automation AI and a wee bit of enterprise AI likely represent our shared future. So do the coming financial crash and its economic fallout from AI funny money (circular) financing. The problem with circular financing is that it sets off a game of musical chairs once one or more or the participating parties begins to take money out.

The relevant question is what it is that the American political leadership imagines that the US will do for a living in coming decades. The fantasy that has been sold is that ‘markets’ decide this. In the 1990s, outsourcing was claimed to be the product of nature (wage competition) when it was in fact the result of specific policies promoted by specific interests. American industrialists imagined that they could rid the US of organized labor by ridding it of jobs that pay. Now, with crypto grifts being what it is that Americans ‘do,’ the solution from above is political repression.

This political repression would have different social meaning if the sense was that those imposing it had the people’s interests at heart. But they don’t. We, the people. are viewed as annoying complainers who interfere with stock market gains and persistently rank the people running the place lower than venereal disease and serial killers. And the sense that one of America’s political parties will save us has been replaced with the understanding that nothing in the current political mix is going to do so. We are on our own.

Deindustrialization is a form of looting through Wall Street’s role in asset stripping and pirate finance. Financialization is looting through those closest to the money creation machine (banking) taking the money so created for themselves (e.g. crypto grifts). AI is looting through companies that haven’t turned a profit and plausibly never will receiving trillions in realized and prospective ‘investment’ without having produced a public benefit (like toilet paper or toothbrushes). The common theme here is fortunes made through uncreative destruction. US ‘leaders’ are destroyers, not creators.

Since the plan for what Americans will do for a living going forward at least theoretically involves firing half of the US workforce, how precisely is this supposed to work? The claim is that AI will replace enterprise (call centers, accounting firms, law firms) workers. Nonsense. These companies are creating tiered service where the customers who don’t matter (like yours truly, apparently) hang up and forget that there is a problem because there is no way to fix it except by ceasing to do business with the offending vendor.

AI is tiering precisely this way. Industrial automation and enterprise AI are already quasi-commodity businesses. The AI finance folks (e.g. Ed Zitron) argue that these businesses will never be profitable because their costs (‘compute’) rise with revenues, leaving margins flat. (With flat margins, a $1 rise in revenues means a $1 rise in costs and a $2 rise in revenues means a $2 rise in costs. With these companies currently losing money, rising revenues mean rising losses. The imagined solution is to cut costs, which finds OpenAI cutting prices on its products to stay competitive. But AI is a growth business?

This leaves only the models being sold as ‘thinking machines’ to produce the return on what will soon be several trillion dollars of investment. Are these thinking machines? It doesn’t help that the CEOs of the two main competitors in the thinking machine space, OpenAI and Anthropic, are philosophically ignorant fabulists who don’t appear to understand how the products that they are selling actually work. Anthropic’s Dario Amodei argues that finer gearing for the AI automaton will cause a conversion from dumb machine to human like consciousness. Are cookies set out on Christmas eve for Santa Claus as well?

But little of what these people believe actually matters. The trillions in financing are premised in all of these AI types earning huge profits for their developers. With the enterprise AI sales people backing off of the claim that AI will replace workers wholesale, it is difficult to see where the value proposition that would support fat margins will come from. Having worked for large corporations, it is guaranteed that the only reason that the AI sales people are getting meetings is on the promise that large numbers of workers will be permanently replaced with AI.

While the gearing in ‘thinking machine’ AI can be ever better refined, the product will always and in every case be a better automaton (mechanical robot), not a thinking machine. An analogy is to build a bridge 90% of the way without having a clear understanding of how the remaining 10% will be built. Continental philosophers explained a century ago both how and why building the final 10% (inanimate to animate) of the bridge is impossible. American AI companies built 90% of the bridge with no way to get to the other side. Brilliant?

Again, the reason why this matters is because the US has put all of its hopes for future economic growth into the AI basket. Capital expenditures of one trillion dollars to date, with another two trillion in theory coming behind it, put the wider economy at risk for what at present looks like a stupid gamble. Further, Chinese AI company DeepSeek has partially solved the cost problem, giving it a large pricing advantage over its competitors. As I understand it, DeepSeek’s architectural advantage over US competitors is across the board in automation, enterprise and generative AI.

What DeepSeek did process-wise was to turn a pig in a python into a mouse in a python until the pig hits the digestive tract, at which point it is turned back into a pig. This allows it to move through the python (AI model) with a low expenditure of effort to be revitalized when it is time for dinner (to produce the query response). Because compute is the major cost of the ‘thinking machine’ AI, this gives DeepSeek a cost advantage that US AI companies probably cannot match in the time needed to do so.

The DeepSeek solution is mathematically clever and likely points the way forward for the US AI companies that survive the next few years. But again, the finance people aren’t going to be in a position to care what happens after loans default and equity values go to zero. The time to pledge, borrow, and cross-collateralize US based AI was after the business case has been demonstrated. FOMO (fear of missing out) is a financial bubble ethos. As Will Rogers put it, once the bubble bursts, people stop worrying about the return on their money to focus on the return of their money.

Where does this leave the US? With 1) an implausible public – private industrial policy that will cause major economic dislocations over the next few years, 2) a commodity AI business that was sold as a high growth (high margin) business, 3) an all new group of entitled billionaires who have never created a product that earned a profit but who now get to tell the rest of us what to do and 4) with a Chinese competitor that built a superior product at lower cost than US firms. As with BYD and the $10,000 EV, who needs a Tesla when you can buy a car that works better for 15% of the cost.

Graph: deindustrialization has been the articulated policy of the US and was codified through serial trade agreements since the 1970s. When it finally took hold around 2001, its impact on the US workforce was utter devastation. In 2016 Donald Trump was elected on his promise to reindustrialize the US. But Trump has the attention span of a gnat and was likely sidetracked by a cheeseburger placed in front of him. The result: manufacturing employment in the US remains about where it was in 2016. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve.

For those imagining that the US is re-industrializing, think again. Manufacturing employment in the US has fallenunder Trump, not risen. Readers who search will find a body of literature from mainstream economists claiming that the US moved up the value chain in recent decades and that US manufacturing is flourishing. This is (Mitt) Romneyesque fantasy. See my recent Substack articles on the ‘China Shock’ for details. The claim about manufacturing is based on hedonic (qualitative) adjustments made to computer chips. Economists confused a dubious financial statistic (hedonic adjustments made to computer chips) with wider productivity growth.

The math has it that valuing the hedonic adjustment at 100% of the increased functionality while users only use 15% of it overstates the increase in the productivity of capital on its own terms. When applied to AI, assuming that the full theoretical change in the value of capital is 100% of the hedonic adjustment, and therefore allocating 100% of productivity gains to AI, is to overstate the change in productivity from AI (15%) and to understate the change in productivity of labor (85%) in the production process. This same point applies to all technology shocks. The game is rigged for capital.

The fall in US GDP growth from 4% in 1948 to 2% today (graph above) is why the US is saber rattling against China, Russia and BRICS. The punchline is that China, Russia and BRICS didn’t deindustrialize the US. The American ruling class did. China, Russia and BRICS didn’t financialize the US. The American ruling class did. China, Russia and BRICS didn’t force the crypto grift economy onto the US. The American ruling class did. And it is the American AI developers who made generative AI a tool for top-down social control. China is using AI to automate factories. Which nation is authoritarian?

To tie this together, AI seems a weak foundation upon which to build a future economy. In the first place, unlike computers, telephones and the internal combustion engine, AI won’t be transformative. What it does well is digital automation. What is does less well and even then, only in particular industries, is enterprise automation. The executives who imagine that AI will replace workers know absolutely nothing about what ‘their’ workers actually do. The US is to the point where class stratification is making the nation unworkable.

Looking forward, expect and prepare for an AI related financial calamity within the next year or two. This will be the result of AI financing, not AI per se. The catalyst could be the economic consequences of the re-shutting of the Strait of Hormuz. Or it could be the implosion of AI financing in the presence of shrinking promises about what AI can do. Either way, the US has been placed very, very far out on the limb of a dying tree. Trump the destroyer is the product of the American turn toward internal predation. My American neighborhood resembles DRC through economic extraction by external forces.

What are the solutions? The re-localization of agriculture. Rationalizing the consumer economy to match social and environmental constraints. A Federal guarantee that all who are willing to work be provided jobs that pay doing the work that the US needs to be done. Public schools from pre-K – PhD that educate the public in the broad attributes of human civilization. A healthcare system that raises life expectancy instead of lowering it. And a Department of Peace with the authority and purpose of ending US military adventurism abroad. Murder is the business of the mafia. It’s time to get the gangsters out of government.

Rob Urie is an artist and political economist. His book Zen Economics is published by CounterPunch Books.