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Friday, September 27, 2024

On remote Greek island, migratory birds offer climate clues

Forest fires, the use of pesticides, and urban expansion are also factors that affect their population.

By AFP
September 27, 2024


Migratory birds offer valuable clues about how a warming planet is affecting wildlife - Copyright AFP Hassan FNEICH

Hélène COLLIOPOULOU

Gently holding a blackcap warbler in his palm, ornithologist Christos Barboutis blew on its feathers to reveal the size of its belly: a good indicator of how far the bird can migrate.

Acutely vulnerable to climate change, migratory birds offer valuable clues to scientists about how our warming planet is affecting wildlife: from their shifting migration patterns to their body weight.

“Observing them warns us if something is changing or going wrong,” said Barboutis, a researcher at the Hellenic Ornithological Society.

Birds “are among the first to be affected by climate change such as drought, which poses a big problem for their distant travel,” he told AFP at an observation station on the small Aegean island of Antikythera.

At the crack of dawn, the researcher and his colleagues lay out nets to capture and ring the birds.

The tiny island in the eastern Mediterranean lies on a popular corridor for birds migrating from northern Europe to Africa in the autumn, and in the opposite direction in springtime.

Barboutis came to the sparsely populated rock between the Peloponnese and the western tip of Crete some 15 years ago.

His team have seen and observed a variety of birds: from turtle doves and warblers to colourful bee-eaters and buzzards.

The rare Eleonora’s falcon with its distinctive, elegant wings often nests on the cliffs of the island. Greece becomes host to around 80 percent of the bird’s population during their breeding season.



– ‘State of nature’ –



At sunrise, volunteers Nefeli Marinou, a 21-year-old biology student, and Jennifer Evans, a 25-year-old environmentalist from Canada, scour the deployed nets for trapped birds and carefully place them in small bags.

A metal ring placed on a bird’s finger bears a unique identification number.

In a book, Marinou notes the species, age, sex, date and time.

“From this number we deduce how long it took the bird to get here, whether the population is declining or stable,” Evans said.

Around 40 birds were ringed in a day’s work.

The bird capturing programme began 20 years ago, Barboutis said, although he cautioned it was a scientifically short period to make long-term conclusions about the impacts of climate change.

From the top of a rock, student volunteer Nikolas Promponas, using a telescope and binoculars, watched for falcons and white-headed vultures, a species whose numbers are declining in Europe.

Many species of birds including birds of prey need coastlines and ridges to gain height before taking off, he said, a resource that is abundant on Antikythera.

Unlike the nearby tourist islands of Kythera and Crete, rugged Antikythera has just two restaurant-cafes and can only handle around forty tourists in summer.

Like other islands in the southern Mediterranean, Antikythera serves as a vital stopover point where migratory birds can replenish ahead of their long journey.

It is part of the EU Natura network of nature protection areas due to its biodiversity.

Declining insect populations have made it harder for some species to find food, while human activity, intense droughts and wildfires worsened by climate change have contributed to the loss of their habitat.

Forest fires, the use of pesticides, and urban expansion are also factors that affect their population.

This year, Greece experienced its warmest winter and warmest summer since detailed records began in 1960.

Less greenery means less food.

“If there are fewer birds feeding on insects, it probably means that insects are also in decline,” Evans said.

“Whatever the case, birds are a very good indicator of the state of nature.”

Thursday, September 26, 2024

Portugal: Deadly forest fires

Monday 23 September 2024, by Bloco de Esquerda

Seven people have died and 118 have been injured in the fires that have been raging since September 15 in the north and centre of the country. In just three days, 2024 has become the year with the fourth-largest area burned in the last decade.

Sven people have died and 118 have been injured in the fires that have been raging since September 15 in the north and centre of the country. In just three days, 2024 has become the year with the fourth-largest area burned in the last decade.

Between Sunday and late Tuesday afternoon, more than 71,000 hectares burned in Portugal, compared to 22,500 hectares previously, including the 5,000 hectares of the Madeira fires. In just three days, what was supposed to be a quiet year in terms of burned areas has become the fourth-worst year of the last decade. The figures are published by Público , but the newspaper warns that they are based on satellite images and therefore may be excessive. But even if we do not take into account 15 per cent of the burned area, this year’s figures are only exceeded by those of 2016, 2017 and 2022.

In the north and centre of the country, the fires have spread due to weather conditions considered to be the most severe, particularly the easterly wind with strong gusts. On Wednesday, the National Emergency and Civil Protection Authority (INEM) counted five deaths and 118 injured , including ten in serious condition, stressing that the number of deaths was transmitted to it by the INEM and does not include the two civilians who died of a sudden illness. The maximum risk of fire affected 50 municipalities on Wednesday and the government decided to extend the state of alert until Thursday.

More than 100 active fires

On Wednesday morning, there were more than 100 active fires, with restarts and wind changes during the night, which made the situation in Águeda "uncontrollable" and approached urban centres. The firefighters who fought the Albergaria a-Velha fire , which has entered the resolution phase, are also fighting these fires. During the night, the Castro Daire fire progressed towards Arouca , reaching the Paiva footbridges and confining several villages, after people with reduced mobility had been evacuated. In Covilhã, the night was spent fighting a fire in a pine forest area in Gibraltar that had escaped the Serra da Estrela fire two years ago.

Very complicated traffic

Several fires are also raging in the Porto district and some villages have evacuated their inhabitants . In Mangualde and São Pedro do Sul, it is reported that homes and businesses have been destroyed by fire. By late morning, Civil Protection reported 142 fires, 58 of which were in the final stages, with more than 5,500 agents on the ground, accompanied by 1,700 land resources and 37 air resources.

At the same time, the government reported that rail traffic on the Douro line between Marco de Canaveses and Régua and on the Vouga line had been interrupted, with several trains suspended. The A43 motorway between Gondomar and the A41 and the A41 between Medas and Aguiar de Sousa were also closed on Wednesday morning, as was the A25 between Albergaria and Reigoso ( Viseu ), as well as several national roads.

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Amazon Death Rattle

The Amazon rainforest is in deep trouble. Labeling it a “crisis”, however, seems too hackneyed and not descriptive enough because the devastation is beyond description.

The magnificent rainforest is morphing into a tinder box that’s trapped in the worst drought of all time. According to MapBiomas, an all-time record amount of land is charred and smoldering as 180,000 fires this year, over 50,000 current, light up Brazil, potentially threatening major cities Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

An estimated 20% of the Brasilia National Forest burned just last week.” (ABC News, 9/10/2024)

What’s happening in the Amazon may strike people as routine fires that news outlets have been covering for years. Nothing could be further from the truth. Historically, there’s nothing routine about this. Today’s fires are an unnerving example of a trend that is unique to modern-day society. Historically, over millennia, the Amazon rainforest did not experience massive take-down wildfires that incinerated all life forms.

“The Amazon evolved for millions of years without fire… its plants and animals lack the necessary adaptation….” (Source: Amazon Rainforest Fires: Everything You Need to Know, College of Natural Resources, North Carolina State University, September 23, 2019)

Making matters far-far worse than any previous fires and a chilling new development: “Almost half of the fires in the Amazon burned pristine forests, according to data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research. That is far from typical. It means fighting deforestation in the Amazon is no longer enough to stop fires. This matters because it shows that the fire-control practices in some of the world’s most biodiverse places are not working. And that threatens myriad forms of life, including us.” (Source: “The Fires That Could Reshape the Amazon”, The New York Times, September 17, 2024)

From Canada to Siberia to Brazil the world is on fire. When forests burn, they emit CO2. Therefore, wildfires convert carbon-sequestering trees into CO2 belching monsters in competition with gas-powered automobiles. This is global warming feeding on itself.

As a result, forest fires are getting worse. Burned-out forests in 2023 topped all previous years by a record-smashing +24%. “The latest data on forest fires confirms what we’ve long feared: Forest fires are becoming more widespread, burning at least twice as much tree cover today as they did two decades ago.” (Source: The Latest Data Confirm Forests Fires Are Getting Worse, World Resources Institute, August 13, 2024)

Global warming has turned lethal. In Brazil, a drought that began last year has become the worst on record, according to national disaster monitoring agency Cemaden. “In general, the 2023-2024 drought is the most intense, long-lasting in some regions and extensive in recent history, at least in the data since 1950,” according to Ana Paula Cunha, a drought researcher with Cemaden. (Source: South America Surpasses Record for Fires, Reuters, September 13, 2024)

According to Rachael Garrett, Professor of Conservation/University of Cambridge: “Deforestation of the Amazon has led to a reduction in rainfall in Brazil, throwing the ecosystem off balance and causing a loop of drought and devastating wildfires now impacted by the worst drought in memory.” (Source: Brazil Experiencing Record-Breaking Wildfires as Persistent Drought Affects the Amazon Rainforest, ABC News, September 14, 2024)

Global warming has become more than the mighty Amazon can handle, turning charcoal black, smothering smoke. This one-and-only world gem directly influences global hydrology from the cornfields of Iowa to the crest of the Tibetan Plateau 15,000 km away; it is literally at the heartbeat of the planet and suffering, in early stages of a massive die-off. Loss of the rainforest will bring a different world, a foreign world that nobody wants to recognize.

“According to Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE), there were over 65,000 fire hotspots by the end of August 2024—the highest number for this period since 2005.” (Source: 2024 Marks the Worst Year for Amazon Fires Since 2005, Rainforest Foundation, 2024) Worse yet, of the fire hotspots, over 38,000 were recorded in August alone, an increase of 120% compared to the same month last year with 17,373 fire hotspots.

Since time immemorial, healthy rainforests don’t burn. Fires in healthy forests do not turn catastrophic. They remain low intensity and stay close to the ground, removing debris, small trees, and woody shrubs in the understory. The Amazon rainforest, when healthy, is shrouded by misty fog in a warm climate with lots of rain, up to 260 inches per year. But global warming has taken that description away. Recurring droughts are killing the rainforest, setting the stage for massive wildfires. NASA claims droughts come so frequently that large regions of the rainforest no longer recover. This is not normal. In a word, it is frightening.

A high-end collaboration of 80 scientists claims trees in western and southern Amazon face serious risk of dying because of global warming-induced droughts. (Source: Amazon – How Will it Cope with Drought? University of Leeds, April 26, 2023)

“Wildfires in the Amazon are choking swaths of Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador with smoke leading to evacuations, school closures, canceled flights and a dire threat to plant and animal life in the region… An estimated 20% of the Brasilia National Forest burned just last week.” (Source: ‘Out of Control’ Fires Ravage the Amazon Region, ABC News, September 10, 2024) This is so far beyond normal that it doesn’t even compute.

“The fires in California or the fires in Europe, those aren’t the same as the fires in South America. There’s an enormous difference — the loss of biodiversity,’ says Guillermo Villalobos, a political scientist focusing on climate science at Bolivian nonprofit Fundación Solon. ‘Forests like the Amazon are historically tropical forests, meaning they’ve never burned, they’ve never coexisted with the fire. This is terribly tragic for the ecosystem and the world. The Amazon is in its worst state of the last 50 years.” (Ibid.)

The statement “tropical forests never burned” tells a horrific tale that is impossible to ignore. Human activity has lit a devasting scorching change to nature that’s sparked by the advent of CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels, which causes excessive global warming, which is crushing the Amazon rainforest with recurring droughts that NASA says repeat so often that the once-mighty forest no longer recovers, no longer regrows. If fossil fuel emissions continue at current rates, the rainforest is destined to die. And the world will change like the remaking of a Hollywood science fiction film.

Science fiction writers have written stories about dying planets, like Dune, where inhabitants of the planet Arrakis wear “stillsuits” that recycle body moisture. Interestingly, Frank Herbert’s 1965 novel was one of the first to take environmental concerns seriously and became a rallying point for the environmental movement of the late 1960s and 70s.

Now, fifty years later, fiction like Dune turns real right before our eyes. But where’s an environmental movement as strong, as effective, as pro-active as the 1960s and 70s on progressive legislation protecting the environment? It’s disappeared.

Alas, in the face of raging forests fires around the world, we’re going backwards on environmental protections, for example, the Supreme Court is stripping environmental legislation of the 1960s-70s: “The Supreme Court is effectively axing a major component of the Clean Water Act, rolling back 50 years of wetland protection in a declaration of war against nature by changing a word in the text of the Clean Water Act. Seldom, if ever, will repercussions of a Supreme Court decision be so far-reaching and detrimental to life for the planet. It’s a dagger strike deep into the heart of the world’s most significant life source. Justice Samuel Alito “changing the text of the Clean Water Act” is guaranteed to bring forth much, much worse flooding, especially along coastlines as sea levels rise from global warming; it’ll engender new sources of pollution of streams and lakes and bring on huge losses in biodiversity and crush the beauty of nature displaced by concrete, asphalt and development. Most importantly, aquifers depend upon wetlands for replenishment.” (Source: Supremes Declare War on Wetlands, May 29, 2023)

According to the Sierra Club: “The Supreme Court’s decision will open millions of acres of wetlands—all formerly protected by the Clean Water Act—to pollution and destruction.”

Even Justice Brett Kavanaugh took exception, “scolding” Samuel Alito for “taking liberties with congressional law.” (Ibid.)

Stop CO2 emissions. Stop deforestation.

We’re methodically killing the planet. The planet cannot count on life support coming to its rescue. Hmm, the planet is life support.

But life support is burning.FacebookTwitter

Robert Hunziker (MA, economic history, DePaul University) is a freelance writer and environmental journalist whose articles have been translated into foreign languages and appeared in over 50 journals, magazines, and sites worldwide. He can be contacted at: rlhunziker@gmail.comRead other articles by Robert.
The true cost of protecting the Amazon and who should pay
09/24/2024S
DW


The world’s largest rainforest is battling deforestation, drought a
nd record wildfires. Where is the money to save it coming from?

When the Amazon burns it has an impact far beyond its own boundaries
Image: Edmar Barros/AP/picture alliance

While deforestation rates fell by nearly 50% in 2023, the Amazon continues to battle critical threats.

In recent months, it has suffered a devastating drought and record wildfires, which release large amounts of planet-heating greenhouse gases. Fire alerts are 79% higher than average for this time of year.

The Amazon has shrunk by the size of France and Germany in the last four decades, according to a report this week, with researchers noting an "alarming increase" in forest land cleared for mining, agriculture or livestock farming.

Scientists fear up to half the rainforest could hit a "tipping point" by 2050 due to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme drought, deforestation and wildfires. They warn crossing this threshold could intensify regional climate change and risk the Amazon becoming permanently degraded or turning into savanna.
Who should pay for the Amazon's protection?

The vast rainforest is not only a source of immense biodiversity, its trees and soil store the equivalent of 15-20 years of CO2 emissions and help stabilize the Earth's temperatures.

As such, Jack Hurd, executive director of the Tropical Forest Alliance, which supports companies in removing deforestation from their supply chains sees a global responsibility to preserve the Amazon so it can continue to provide "goods and services for now and into the future."

Ofter referred to as the "lungs of the Earth" the Amazon rainforest spans more than six million square kilomters across eight countriesImage: AP

Although nearly two-thirds of the Amazon lies in Brazil, the vast rainforest spans eight countries, including Colombia, Peru and Bolivia.

Its forests are worth more alive and standing than cut or destroyed, according to data from the World Bank. The Brazilian Amazon alone generates an annual value of $317 billion (€284 billion), a calculation based largely on the value it holds to the world as a carbon store. This far surpasses the $43 billion-$98 billion (€38.6 billion-€88 billion) estimated value of clearing the rainforest for timber, farming or mining.

Jessica Villanueva, senior manager in sustainable finance Americas at WWF, emphasized the need for multiple actors in funding protection, "Efforts must unite all eight Amazon countries, including governments, companies, and financial institutions."
Is there a global protection fund?

The largest global fund is the Amazon Fund, set up by the Brazilian government in 2008 to raise international donations for the reduction of deforestation and forest degradation.

To date, it has received over $1.4 billion, with Norway and Germany the largest donors, although Switzerland, the US, the UK, Japan and the Brazilian-owned oil and gas company Petrobras have also contributed.Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva revived the fund when he took office in 2023 after Western donors paused contributions during the term of previous leader Jair Bolsonaro, who oversaw a sharp rise in deforestation rates.

The fund, which is managed by the Brazilian Development Bank, finances a range of projects including those related to wildfire prevention, support for Indigenous lands and conservation areas, as well as sustainable development and monitoring environmental crime. It claims it has extended protected areas of the forest with strengthened environmental management by 74 million hectares.

With more than 35,000 fires recorded in the Brazilian Amazon in the first eight months of this year, smoke has drifted to cities as wellImage: Suamy Beydoun/AFP/Getty Images

However, while the Amazon Fund is important, it does not provide the level of financing needed to fully protect the region, said Cristiane Fontes, executive director of global research nonprofit World Resources Institute Brazil.
Where else is money coming from?

In addition to the Amazon Fund there are also tens of millions of dollars going into the region largely from foundations and bilateral agencies, said Hurd, who is also a member of the World Economic Forum executive committee.

An estimated nearly $5.81 billion has been allocated to protection and sustainable management by international donors since 2013, according to a recent study. Funders include bilateral and multilateral agencies, private foundations, NGOs and companies.

Germany, Norway and the United States made up almost half of donations between 2020-2022 and private foundations, such as the Bezos Earth Fund, accounted for a quarter. National governments in the Amazon region received 30% of these funds, followed by NGOs.

While there is no readily available information on public funding figures, protection is mostly financed by public money and multilateral donors, said Andrea Carneiro, conservation strategist from the US-based environmental organization Rainforest Trust. They added there are various financing gaps, including for protection in Bolivia and Peru, as well as management funds for Indigenous territories.



However, gaining an accurate overview of how much money is flowing into protection is difficult, Hurd said. "You're going to see a range of estimates as to what's actually going into this, because people are counting things in different ways."

Notions of protection differ depending on whether they are dealing with Amazon land that is intact, degraded or cleared for activities like mining or agriculture, he continued. "This is not just about 'here's a protected forest that we need to cordon off and figure out how to manage,' like a national park might be in Europe or North America."

What more needs to be done?

To prevent the Amazon from reaching a tipping point, the global donor community, public budgets and the private sector need to urgently increase their commitments, said Villanueva.

Maintaining 80% of the region within conservation areas — which would include Indigenous lands — would require between $1.7 billion-$2.8 billion annually as well as $1-1.6 billion in establishment costs, according to one recent estimate.

As public financing alone will not be enough to close the funding gap, governments need to implement financial regulations and incentives to encourage companies to move towards an economy with zero deforestation, Villanueva said. "It is imperative to attract private investors and build the capacity of nature-based solution projects to leverage private capital."

What's needed is to find ways to honor the value of standing forests and transition to a more sustainable economic model in the region, Fontes said. A recent report from the WRI highlighted that transitioning to a deforestation-free economy which includes low-emissions agriculture and forest restoration would require around 1% of Brazil's GDP per year, amounting to around US $533 billion by 2050.
Deforestation, whether legal or illegal, contributes to the land drying out and creating ideal conditions for forest fires to spreadImage: Andre Penner/AP/picture alliance

Fontes points to the potential of Brazil's Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), a proposed multilateral investment pot to preserve rainforests worldwide which would aim to raise $250 billion from countries with sovereign wealth funds and other private investors. "It's a fund that really would support Brazil — and other countries — in its transition from an extractive economy to a sustainable one."

Alongside TFFF, another long-term solution for Amazon protection can be found in the Jurisdictional Redd+ (JREDD) funding mechanism, said José Otavio Passos, Amazon director at US-based environmental organization The Nature Conservancy . Through JREDD, companies or governments provide payments to states or nations for deforestation reductions across large areas in return for verified carbon credits.

Last month, the World Bank also announced a $225 million Amazon reforestation bond, that links financial returns for investors to carbon removal from the atmosphere.

"There is a lot that the rich countries can do. There is a lot that Brazilian government can do. There's a lot that the private sector can do, and we need to do it faster. Every one of us," said Passos.

Edited by: Tamsin Walker


Forest fires rage in Brazil

Wildfires from the Amazon to Sao Paulo: While the worst forest fires in the south of the country are now under control, flames continue to rage in the north.Image: JOEL SILVA/REUTERS


Millions breathing black smoke



Last Friday alone, Brazil's state climate institute INPE registered almost 5,000 fires throughout the country. Several cities with millions of inhabitants are shrouded in thick clouds of smoke, including Manaus on the Rio Negro. In the Amazon region, 1,700 fires were counted. Many communities in Brazil have declared a state of emergency.Image: Bruno Kelly/REUTERS



Fires countrywide



Hardly any place in Brazil has been spared. Smoke stretches over 4,000 kilometers from the Amazon in the north through the Pantanal wetlands in western Brazil to the south-eastern state of Sao Paulo, one of the country's most important agricultural areas.Image: CARLOS FABAL/AFP/Getty Images


Close call



Shortly before flames reached a luxury residential complex in São Paulo, the fire on a neighboring plantation was stopped. According to authorities, fires have killed at least two people in the state, and destroyed more than 20,000 hectares of land since last Thursday. The local government is talking about damage amounting to €150 million ($167 million).Image: Joel Silva/REUTERS


Arson to blame



In the vast majority of cases, arson is thought to be the cause of the fires. Illegal slash-and-burn practices are used to create pastures for livestock and agriculture. The federal police and environmental authorities are investigating dozens of cases. Three people were arrested for arson over the weekend.Image: JOEL SILVA/REUTERS


Worst fires in 17 years



Manaus, the capital of the Brazilian state of Amazonas, was shrouded in smoke on Tuesday. The fiercest fires in 17 years are raging in the Amazon, with 60,000 counted since the beginning of the year. The entire rainforest region in South America is affected by a severe drought, which experts believe is linked to the El Nino weather pattern and climate change.Image: Edmar Barros/AP Photo/picture alliance


Record droughts



The fires are compounded by drought. Sandbanks are rising out of the Rio Madeira, a tributary of the Amazon. The river levels have been falling since the beginning of June, a month earlier than usual. Low water levels mean that villages and towns in the region are cut off from supplies and authorities fear that the current drought could even exceed last year's record-breaking drought.Image: EVARISTO SA/AFP/Getty Images


International cooperation



Brazil is not the only country affected by the fires. According to the authorities, there are currently around 22,000 active fires in neighboring Bolivia too, which have burned around 2 million hectares of land so far. On Tuesday, Brazil and Bolivia announced their intention to fight the fires in the border region together.Image: Marcelo Camargo/dpa/Agencia Brazil/picture alliance


Political setback



The fires are a serious political setback for Brazil's left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. He had promised to protect the rainforest and stop illegal deforestation by 2030. Under his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro, the destruction of the rainforest reached new highs.Image: LOURIVAL IZAQUE/AFP/Getty Images

 

Rising waters, waning forests: How scientists are using tree rings to study how rising sea levels affect coastal forests



Guest editorial by Dr LeeAnn Haaf, assistant director of Estuary Science, Partnership for the Delaware Estuary and author of a new Frontiers in Forests and Global Change article


Frontiers

Ghost forest 

image: 

When trees in coastal areas die a graveyard of dead trees—known as a ‘ghost forest’ is left behind. Salt-tolerant marsh plants take root and form a green carpet below the remains of the once-thriving forest. Image: LeeAnn Haaf.

view more 

Credit: LeeAnn Haaf




Sunlight filters through the canopy of pines, holly, sweet gum, and red maple while bird calls echo in the distance. These coastal forests may seem like others in the Mid-Atlantic, but a hidden challenge looms. Standing tall next to their salt marsh neighbors, where the wind carries the sharp scent of sulfidic seawater, these trees are more than just part of the landscape—they are living monuments to a rapidly changing environment. As sea levels rise, the future of these forests is uncertain. While the adjacent salt marshes can adapt to encroaching waters, the trees, vulnerable to the increasing frequency of saltwater flooding, face a grimmer prospect. Additionally, temperatures are increasing, and rain patterns are shifting. How long can the forest withstand the pressure of a changing climate? When will they finally succumb to a rising tide?

Rising tides

Coastal forests occupy low-lying land just above sea level, situated beside tidal marshes. Being low and close to tidal channels, these forests can flood with saltwater, which may happen a few times a year or only during the most severe storms. However, as sea levels rise, the boundary between land and sea pushes upslope, leading to more frequent flooding. Tidal marshes dynamically build elevation or migrate upslope, maintaining their positions relative to flooding. Forests, however, are far less adaptable. Along the lower edges, individual trees begin to die, forcing the forest to retreat until what remains is a graveyard of dead trees—known as a ‘ghost forest.’ Here, salt-tolerant marsh plants, such as smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora), take root and form a green carpet below the remains of the once-thriving forest. This shift is beneficial for tidal marshes, allowing them to expand even in the face of erosion or other threats, but it comes at the expense of the coastal forest.

The stark reality of this transition is already apparent in many coastal areas, where acres of dead trees stand as a testament to the encroaching saltwater. Retreating coastal forest can result in a loss of biodiversity, and perhaps carbon sequestration; if nothing else, it represents the loss of critical buffer space between the land and sea. Land slope plays a role in determining where these forests retreat, but the variability is enough to leave land managers questioning: Where will forests retreat and where will tidal marshes take their place? Proactive management is paramount, as once the trees begin to die, it is likely too late to alter their fate. To anticipate these changes, it is essential to understand the subtleties that occur before tree death. Signals of stress can be gleaned from how well trees are growing as flooding increases, temperature rises, and precipitation patterns change. These signals point towards what conditions may eventually lead to tree death, and depending on other characteristics of the forest, where coastal forests are more vulnerable to retreat.

Tree rings show highly specific effects of sea level rise

Our study delved into this using dendrochronology, the analysis of tree growth rings, to explore relationships between flooding, climate variables, and site-specific conditions. Dendrochronology allows us to understand the conditions under which trees thrive or struggle, with narrower growth rings indicating periods of stress. Traditionally, simple correlations have been used to study these relationships, but we employed a different technique: gradient boosted linear regression. This machine learning approach can uncover complexities that correlations might miss, such as non-linear growth patterns across a spectrum of environmental conditions. We applied this method at four sites, with three tree species common to coastal forests in New Jersey and Delaware: loblolly pine, pitch pine, and American holly.

Our hypothesis was that rising sea levels would lead to reduced growth across species. However, the results were far more nuanced. The effects of sea level rise on tree growth varied depending on temperature, precipitation, and the site. At one site, we found that American holly grew better when winter water levels were higher. Loblolly pines appeared vulnerable to autumn water levels. We also observed frequent non-linear growth responses, painting a more complicated picture of how these forests react to rising sea levels and climate change. We also analyzed whether the gradient-boosted results indicated that trees would fare better or worse under predicted changes in temperature, precipitation, and water levels. Our findings revealed few consistent patterns, highlighting the influence of species and site-specific factors on overall vulnerability.

Learning to manage coastal forests

Before trees reach the point of no return, the impacts of environmental changes on their growth are anything but simple. In some cases, climate change might even enhance resilience to increased flooding. For example, loblolly pine, situated at its northernmost distribution in our study sites, could benefit from warmer winters, perhaps offsetting some stress caused by flooding. Similarly, American holly showed markedly different results between two sites, possibly due to variations in moisture availability. These and other factors likely contribute to the variability in how and when specific coastal forests will retreat in response to sea level rise.

Overall, the effects of climate change and increased flood frequency on coastal forests are complex and often non-linear, highlighting the need for nuanced forest management strategies. In the future, similar dendrochronological studies could serve as valuable tools for assessing coastal forest vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise. Our findings aim to inform land management efforts, helping to strike a balance between conserving coastal forests and tidal marshes given the growing pressures of climate change and sea level rise.

Researchers investigated the possible consequences of climate change on coastal forests. Image: LeeAnn Haaf. 



A ‘ghost forest’ can be the result of coastal forests being flooded with saltwater Image: LeeAnn Haaf.


Researchers investigated the possible consequences of climate change on coastal forests. Image: LeeAnn Haaf.