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Tuesday, March 17, 2026

The Old Left Recognizes the Danger of AI, Where’s Everybody Else?


MARCH 17, 2026

Photograph by Nathaniel St. Clair

It’s time for the so-called new left to wake up to the existential threat posed by AI. The only U.S. politician cognizant of this stupendous danger is old left Bernie Sanders, who recognizes the late-capitalist AI tsunami coming for us all. He’s the only one asking questions about what happens once governments and corporations turn everything over to AI, because the only way to compete is to rely on a technology that functions at the level of “the best humans” and will soon develop beyond and surpass the best and smartest humans.

This is the overall danger posed by AI. More specific ones have been making headlines lately, namely the AI corporation Anthropic’s imbroglio with Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth. With breathtaking arrogance, Hegseth threatened to ditch Anthropic’s $200 million defense department contract for its AI called Claude, if Claude could not be used for certain despicable and frankly illegal purposes: in autonomous weapons systems that can kill people without human input and allowing Claude to be used for mass domestic surveillance. To his credit, Anthropic’s ceo Dario Amodei resisted Pentagon pressure. But these horrifying demands reveal AI’s monstrously anti-human and homicidal potential. On the evening of February 27, before Anthropic and the Pentagon could release their final positions, Trump, in a fit of pique, banned all government agencies from doing business with Anthropic. So I guess we know where the white house stands on potential abuses of AI. But in the end, this hullaballoo between an AI corporation and the Pentagon is only one aspect of the broader danger AI poses to humanity.

So what happens when, in a few years, the labor portion of the economy is zero percent and the capital portion is 100 percent? And that’s coming fast, because Donald Trump has unleashed AI. The situation might be manageable if the U.S. and China slapped some controls on this monster – so that creating AI superior to the best and smartest humans is delayed – and China would probably be willing to do that. But Trump’s U.S., particularly his venture capitalist backers? Not so much.

Most of the left regards AI as merely the latest Silicon Valley craze, like crypto. It is not. On this, the old left, represented by Sanders, is a lot smarter. Because this is not a matter of “well, I ignore AI, so it will leave me alone.” It won’t. Years ago on Twitter, The Wire’s writer, David Simon, was asked if he’d use AI to help him write, and he replied, “I’d rather put a gun in my mouth and pull the trigger.” For those of us who want AI out of our lives, that could soon be the only option.

Roughly five years ago, of the four big AI companies – Open AI, xAI, Google and Anthropic – two stated openly that if we developed an artificial general intelligence, the chance of human extinction would immediately hit 25 percent (Anthropic’s ceo DarioAmodei) or 20 percent (xAI’s boss Elon Musk). It was then still a theoretical concern, but these leaders in the field admitted that to make up for employment extermination, government would have to supply a universal basic income. But now, with the public asleep to this menace and competition having increased, those corporate bigwigs are no longer quite so honest.

Making matters worse is the fact that for Trump promoting AI keeps the stock market booming. And since Trump regards the stock market as the economy, he has issued horrible executive orders on AI, the worst being his attempts to preempt state regulation of AI, which is the only thing that might protect us from this technological Godzilla.

Three years ago, you could easily discern if you were chatting online with AI. But by winter of 2025, most AI passed the Turing Test, which means it could fool you into thinking you were chatting with a person, if it wanted to. Now if you look at more quantitative fields, like computer programming, well, in the past few months, top computer programmers have stopped writing their own code and have turned this task over to AI. In formal mathematics, AI already operates at the level of pretty good PhD students, but not yet professors. So mathematicians are still doing math. But that will likely be the first of the hard sciences that falls to total automation.

The real danger comes in the next few years, when, according to the research institute METR, the task length that AI can complete extends – because it’s been doubling every few months. So that’s an exponential trajectory that means AI will surpass most human knowledge work – computer programmers, Wall Street entry-level associates much of whose work is manipulating Excel spreadsheets (they will be merely the first to go) – in a matter of years. This change will wipe out knowledge workers, since AI will be able to perform all their tasks, faster and better.

Within Silicon Valley opinions differ on how desirable it is to summon super intelligence into the world. But Trump and his venture capitalist supporters, who have quite successfully kept this issue off the public and congressional radar, have backed those who are most gung-ho for creating super intelligence. This is dangerously short-sighted. These guys may all get rich, but they’ll do so producing a super intelligence that could easily decide in the future that we humans are a nuisance, like so many insects that need to be exterminated. If you think this is an overreaction, well then, you haven’t been paying attention.

Bernie Sanders has. Back on November 24, 2025, he released a statement entitled “The Future of AI and Its Impact on Humanity.” “The question is: Who will control this technology? Who will benefit from it? And who will be left behind?” Then on February 20, the Guardian reported that Sanders “Warned that Congress and the American public have ‘not a clue’ about the scale and speed of the coming AI revolution, pressing for urgent policy action to ‘slow this thing down.’” Sanders calls this the “most dangerous moment in the modern history of this country.” He added, “the Congress and the American people are very unprepared for the tsunami that is coming.” Sanders reissued his call for a moratorium on the expansion of AI data centers to “slow down the revolution and protect workers.”

Sanders first called for a moratorium in December 2025. “If there are no jobs and humans won’t be needed for most things, how do people get an income to feed their families, to get healthcare or to pay rent? There has not been one serious word of discussion in the Congress about that reality.” As the Guardian reported December 28, 2025, he questioned the motives of “the richest people in the world” pushing AI. “He singled out tech moguls Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and Peter Thiel.” Sanders calls for slowing “this process down. It’s not good enough for the oligarchs to tell us, it’s coming, you adapt…They’re going to guarantee health care to all people? What are they going to do when people have no jobs…make housing free?” Again and again, Sanders says, correctly, we need to slow this hurricane down.

So when it comes to AI, old left Bernie Sanders knows the score. Donald Trump does not. Or, more likely, he just doesn’t care. In 2025, Trump issued four executive orders promoting AI and deregulating it. Worst of all was his December 2025 order designed to stop states from restricting AI. Scheduled for March 2026, the Secretary of Commerce is tasked with identifying burdens on AI, among other things. Trump’s assault on the only guard-rail against explosive AI development, namely state regulations literally threatens us all. The only way out of this dead end that AI is corralling us into lies in Congress. If Sanders can wake up his fellow congress members, then we humans might stand a chance. Otherwise, it’s a future of no jobs, no income and the likelihood that super-intelligent AI comes to regard the human species as redundant or outright expendable.

Eve Ottenberg is a novelist and journalist. Her latest novel is Booby Prize. She can be reached at her website.


An Existential Threat to Organized Labor’s Ability to Help People

Source: How Things Work

Rarely has a story filled me with such a profound sense of dread as Josh Dzieza’s New York Magazine piece this week headlined “The Laid-Off Scientists and Lawyers Training AI to Steal Their Careers.” More than anything I have read before, this story has begun to crystallize for me the exact ways that AI is a threat not just to jobs, but to the entire existence of organized labor in America. This is serious shit.

We are all familiar with the ways that the “gig economy” has preyed upon flaws in American labor law to weaken workers and strengthen capital. Employers figured out that by making all of their workers “independent contractors,” they could avoid paying them benefits, abdicate most responsibility for their welfare, push work costs onto them, and, crucially, rob them of the ability to legally unionize. This dynamic has been evident across the economy for decades. The same dynamic making people become Uber drivers also has made everyone adjunct professors and has made everyone work for shoddy subcontractors rather than directly for the firm that it seems you actually work for. It is the push to eradicate, to the extent possible, the existence of the full time employee. The rise of the gig economy is a serious threat to organized labor power. The labor movement has made efforts to nibble at its edges, but success has been hard to come by.

In Dzieza’s story, I saw something that is potentially even more deadly. He profiles Mercor, one of several companies in the business of hiring economically desperate professionals—not just lawyers and scientists, but screenwriters, designers, PhD’s, and experts in a wide variety of academic and professional fields—to train AI models to become better in their areas of expertise. Major AI firms hire Mercor to improve their models. Mercor recruits the appropriate pool of expert works, all as contractors, all working remotely, and then, with no predictable schedule, tosses them batches of work, which they all compete to finish as quickly as possible. Workers do not know the end client. Workers are monitored by software that tracks their actions scrupulously the entire time. Workers can be deactivated and cut off from their supply of work for any reason at all. Workers describe a process of the company cutting rates for the same tasks over time—from $30 an hour, for example, down to $16 an hour. Mercor’s 22 year-old founders became billionaires last year.

Exploitative work is not new. It is a feature of capitalism. American workers have been fighting against it for centuries. The labor movement has a rich history of organizing highly exploited workers and improving their conditions. Coal miners. Factory workers. The list goes on. People died. Violence was intense. Is a company like Mercor really so bad compared to all this?

The answer, I think, is that a company like Mercor poses a fairly unique challenge to the labor movement’s prescription for empowering workers. Here are some characteristics of the type of work that Mercor and its AI industry clients are offering. While many of these characteristics have been present in various workplaces throughout modern history, I do not believe that this lethal combination of characteristics has ever been so ascendant at the center of our economy:

  • No worksite. Remote workers are hard to organize.
  • No full time employees. Independent contractors cannot legally unionize.
  • Workers are in competition with one another for piecework, rather than cooperating on tasks. The nature of the job encourages workers to see one another as threats, not as peers with whom to foster solidarity.
  • Total technological control of the work process by the company. Absolute monitoring of tasks, absolute lack of transparency by workers into the company’s operations and what their coworkers are doing, and absolute ability of the company to fire workers at will.
  • The success of the company contributes to the economic precarity of its own workforce. These workers, already unable to find jobs that can support them after years of training, are employed to improve the AI models that will automate their own industries. The better Mercor’s workers do their work there, the fewer good jobs for humans there will be in their own fields.
  • The workforce gets better as it becomes more economically desperate. A subtle second-order effect of the dynamic described above is that as improved AI models eat more jobs in professional fields, the pool of highly trained workers forced to work for a company like Mercor will expand. Meaning that over time Mercor will be able to offer AI companies more highly skilled workers to train its models, while at the same time being able to offer those workers less, because they are competing with more of their unemployed peers. The leverage of the workers goes down as Mercor’s ability to hire better workers goes up.

As you consider this set of characteristics, ask yourself: Where, exactly, is the realistic intervention point for a labor union to build power for workers here? Even if you were able to overcome the significant hurdles of having a disparate pool of remote workers, and make a list of workers to organize, and pull them together and get them willing to act in solidarity, and avoid having the company deactivate them immediately, they are still caught in a system that is constantly employing them to undermine their own leverage. Even in the best scenario, labor’s leverage at a company like Mercor would be: The company can’t fire these workers because there is a demand for their services from the AI clients. But the more successful the workers are at their jobs, the more the advancing AI models will automate their industries and create an expanding pool of desperate workers who are forced to underbid and undermine the workers at Mercor who organized. It is a non-virtuous cycle. It is a bloodless white collar version of an imperial conqueror who employs impoverished natives as soldiers to oppress their own neighbors.

Mercor.

My own union, the Writers Guild of America, has more or less fully unionized the screenwriting industry. The union is strong and well organized and has experience using its position at a vital chokepoint in the entertainment industry to build and exercise power for writers. It is probably the best-case scenario for existing unions facing this type of AI threat. And even in the case of the mighty WGAE, what companies like Mercor are doing give me the sickening feeling that we are fucked.

The WGA signs contracts with all of the big Hollywood studios and entertainment companies that make films and TV shows. We have an ability to exercise power against these existing companies. We can put provisions strictly regulating AI in our contract with these firms, and strike to enforce it. The real threat we face, though, is not just from the firms who are signatories to our contract wanting to use more AI to replace writers. It is that AI models, trained by us, will become so skilled at replacing writers that entirely new firms can rise up, with little friction, and make film and television without employing writers at all. AI is not the usual sort of threat to labor. In the case of AI, economically desperate workers of today are not training their temporary replacement, or helping a company move to a different place where labor is cheaper; they are training a permanent replacement. The highly trained workers at Mercor are in effect the last gasp of the skilled workforce that they thought they would be entering. They are the desperate members of an expedition, forced to eat the horses that were their only hope of escaping the bad place they are in. After that, they can only eat each other. Then they all die.

Even with respect to “the gig economy”—though it is very difficult—the path for organized labor has been clear. Organize the workers. Build their collective power. Use that power to fight and win protections. But this entire paradigm is being broken now. Even if we could organize the workers of Mercor (something that unions have thus far not even attempted in any serious way), we cannot escape the fact that the very nature of their work is to improve the thing that will destroy their own career prospects in the future. We do not have unions at the AI companies. We cannot strike against them in any meaningful way. Nor do we have a clear path to assert the power of today’s highly skilled workers against the companies of the near future that will be using the AI models we just trained to replicate our work without us.

The progress of the AI industry is in effect shrinking the sphere of economic life in which unions might even hope to be able to help humans. At some point that sphere will become too small to matter to most humans.

This is not just about writers. Not even close. It is about architects and lawyers and scientists and teachers and a whole host of other fields that are facing the same dynamic. The basic threat of white collar job automation by AI has been understood for a long time. But I do not think that organized labor itself—all of the labor unions in America today, the ones still able to exercise power on their own little industrial islands—has really begun to reckon with what we are up against. It is not just that workers are threatened by the job automation, the disappearance of their careers, their declining leverage in the economy. It is that, absent federal laws, it is unclear what unions can even do about this. We can’t organize AI models, and organizing unemployed people offers little power.

The speed at which the AI industry is moving relative to the federal government means it is pretty unrealistic to expect any of us to be saved by the law any time soon. This is very bad—even for the lucky slice of workers who are members of strong unions today. A guillotine is being constructed, by our own desperate peers, that will be capable of rendering today’s version of organized labor more or less obsolete, at least in many of today’s industries that host strong unions. We are heading to a place where not only are workers exploited, but organized labor as it is currently constituted has no moves to make to help them. I confess I don’t have the answer here. But we had better get our fucking thinking caps on, fast.Email

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Hamilton Nolan is a labor writer for In These Times. He has spent the past decade writing about labor and politics for Gawker, Splinter, The Guardian, and elsewhere. More of his work is on Substack.

Friday, January 16, 2026

Source: The Wire

He bestrides the narrow world like a colossus,” said the canny Cassius of Caesar.

What may we say of Trump? That you never know when he may from Caracas to Greenland jump?

Iran is in between, as theocracy seems to be unravelling in that land of the Ayatollahs – the same theocracy which gathers pace in Bharat. (Has not our own oracle just said in Mathura, “nothing can stop India from becoming Hindu Rashtra”?)

Lay off the protesters, Godzilla has warned the powers-that-be in Iran.

May we please say the same of protesters in Minneapolis, Portland, Washington, New York, etc. as they seek the ouster of the national guard from their states, and justice for the 37-year-old mother who was shot dead by a trigger-happy federal agent as boys swat flies?

So, let us return to Greenland. Just 30,000 or so peace-loving citizens of the NATO country Denmark live there in Arctic quietude.

They wish to be left alone. But what if Godzilla does not leave them alone? What may Denmark do?

Recalling Cassius again, he did complain to Brutus: “The fault, dear Brutus, is ours that we are underlings.”

So the Greenlanders, in point of fault, are underlings.

Time was when us underlings were protected by commonly agreed norms of moral and political behaviour issuing from commonly agreed rules of inter-state arrangements.

Well, Godzilla says that time is past.

Capitalism, over some six rapacious centuries or so, has made kill-and-grab a national necessity.

Darwin said only the fittest will survive, and pray who is the fittest? Godzilla, of course.

But, hey, what of Jesus and the Sermon on the Mount?

Should not the shining city on the hill (alternately, the mount) be the first to obey them injunctions?

May be, but for now Darwin has the upper hand, and Jesus would have understood that Godzilla is only setting out to destroy the small-time Pharisees who refuse the supremacy of the dollar and the genius of crypto.

Was not it ordained that the US of A was to be unlike any other nation on earth, beloved of the gods by pre-destination, the elect among the “fallen” homo sapiens of the world?

Of course it was. That is how the dissenters and the Evangelists came to forge this city on the shining hill, or was it a shining city on the hill – whichever, does it matter?

So if Godzilla does stride among the Lilliputians on Greenland, what may a Xi or Putin do? Fire them A bombs? Of course not. They will march into their own Greenlands.

As to Iran, let us ask Godzilla why he seeks to dismantle Iran to secular royalists, while preferring a Hindutva-Zionism make-over in India that is Bharat.

But, pause: Godzilla is a literate animal, and will cite what the good Doctor Johnson famously admonished, “Consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds.”

And where Godzilla may be driven by a negligible brain, do note that he has no small mind.

This here is an age now when theories of governance may be spun each day to suit the grab at hand; pitiful are the rulers who remain shackled to jejune considerations of reason and empathy. ‘You may want the same things as I do, but I am right in my wanting and you are wrong.’ Why? ‘Because you are not Godzilla enough, brother.’

So do thine calisthenics, muscle up, and then talk to me, and we shall then see who wins the thrilla in Manila.

Meanwhile, the teachings of the ethical gurus and of the scriptures ask to be realised not through pacifist pussy-footing but by emulating Nature, which as, Lord Tennyson told us, is rightfully “red in tooth and claw”.

So carry on, Godzilla, we are convinced of thine logic.

Carry on Bhagwat, be Vishwaguru of the chosen, and let those that see not the point either serve the chosen at lesser rates, or trudge to newer swamps of their liking.

And dear Putin and XI, either throw your pretentious hats into the Godzilla ring, or prepare to yield greater parts of the fodder you think of as yours by the decrepit norms of equity in loot.

And what may the underlings of the world do?

Pray that climate change overpowers the Godzillas of our time so decisively as to leave nothing for them to grab.

Let us recall the fury of Lear’s invocation upon the desolate heath: “Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! rage! blow! You cataracts and hurricanoes, spout, Till you have drench’d our steeples, drown’d the cocks.”

To the waters let us add the fires that now everyday merrily gobble up huge acreages of privileged green lands.

The underlings may lay their trust in fire and water which alone may terminate the age of the Godzilla as they did earlier that of the dinosaurs.

From that apocalypse may be born “a new heaven and a new earth” wherein the lamb and the lion may quench their thirst in the same stream cheek by jowl, and part as friends in equal worth.Email

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Badri Raina is a well-known commentator on politics, culture and society. His columns on the Znet have a global following. Raina taught English literature at the University of Delhi for over four decades and is the author of the much acclaimed Dickens and the Dialectic of Growth. He has several collections of poems and translations. His writings have appeared in nearly all major English dailies and journals in India.

Monday, November 24, 2025

Bill Gates, Hurricane Melissa, and a Hot Tub of Death

When a mega-billionaire carps that a “doomsday outlook” is harming the climate movement, it’s important to say many things in response, including this: he’s dead wrong.


In this handout satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Hurricane Melissa churns northwest through the Caribbean Sea captured at 17:00Z on October 27, 2025.
(Photo by NOAA via Getty Images)


Juan Cole
Nov 24, 2025
TomDispatch

In late October, Hurricane Melissa (that should have been called “Godzilla”) battered western Jamaica with 185-mile-an-hour winds. It tossed the roofs of buildings about like splintering javelins, demolished municipal buildings and hospitals, snapped telephone poles like matchsticks, flattened crops, and dumped torrential floodwaters everywhere, leaving $8 billion in damage. That Category 5 storm’s unprecedented ferocity was driven by an overheated Caribbean Sea, produced by 275 years of industrial civilization that has spewed obscene amounts of heat-trapping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere annually.

The same week that U.N. officials spoke of an “apocalypse” in Jamaica, American billionaire Bill Gates expressed a certain unease about officials and scientists concerned with climate change who, he thought, were being hysterical. He urged them to chill the hell out. It was an arrogant and manipulative oracle, uttered with all the privilege of the world’s 19th richest man. A symbol of monopoly capitalism, his individual net worth rivals the annual gross domestic product of the Dominican Republic. And when he responded to Hurricane Melissa, he did so (not surprisingly, I suppose) in the narrow sectional interests of the world’s wealthiest class in Silicon Valley.

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“My House Is a Rubbish Heap”

Gates rejects the view that climate change “will decimate civilization,” insisting instead that it “will not lead to humanity’s demise.” Of course, no one in the scientific community had argued that climate change would actually wipe out humankind, so he is indeed (and all too conveniently) attacking a straw man.

That he resorted to a description of such fallacious relevance shows how intent he is on engaging in a bad-faith argument. And that, in turn, raises the question of his motivation. After all, the possible decimation of civilization, as did indeed occur in parts of Jamaica recently, is quite different from the full-scale extinction of the human species, and it certainly raises questions of equity. The nearly half a million Jamaicans who will be without electricity for weeks and who may face severe food shortages because of crop damage will, of course, not be enjoying much in the way of “civilization” In the wake of Melissa. As Sherlette Wheelan of that island’s Westmoreland Parish said, “My house is like a rubbish heap, completely gone. If it wasn’t for the shelter manager, I don’t know what I would’ve done. She found space for me and others, even though her own roof was gone.”

And imagine this: the hurricanes of the future world we’re now creating by burning such quantities of fossil fuels, in which temperatures could rise by a disastrous 3 degrees Celsius, are likely to be so gargantuan as to make our present behemoths look sickly. Melissa was already a third more powerful than it would have been without climate breakdown. Heat up the Caribbean Sea even more, and the power of storm winds won’t increase on a gentle slope but exponentially. Scientists are already suggesting that we need a new Category 6 classification for such hurricanes, since our present 5 categories are inadequate, given their increasing power. Remember, at present, with Melissas already appearing, we have only experienced a global 1.3 degrees Celsius increase in temperature over the preindustrial norm. At issue is the quality of life and the degree of civilization that will be possible in a world where the temperature increase could be at least double that.

The Demand for Data Centers Cannot Be Met Sustainably

A decade ago, many of the companies in Silicon Valley seemed willing to take on the role of climate champions. Microsoft, where Gates made his career, pledged to be carbon negative by 2030. Jeff Bezos’s Amazon has already put more than 30,000 electric vehicles on the road and has pledged to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2040. In general, you would think that Silicon Valley would be pro-science and hence willing to combat the use of fossil fuels and so the worsening of climate change. After all, the industry depends on basic scientific research, much of it produced by government-funded scientists.

As it turns out, though, the high-tech sector that has produced so many billionaires is instead simply pro-billionaire. This year, we were treated to the spectacle of future trillionaire Elon Musk, while still working with Donald Trump, firing 10% to 15% of all government scientists under the rubric of “the Department of Government Efficiency,” an act that, in the long run, could also help destroy American scientific and technological superiority. Climate scientists were especially targeted. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency is now so understaffed that the carnage of Hurricane Melissa had to be monitored by volunteers.

The high-tech world’s abrupt turn to a rabid anti-science stance is likely the result of the emergence of large language models (also known as “artificial intelligence” or AI) and a consequent new romance with the burning of fossil fuels. This development made Nvidia, which produces the graphics-processing units that run much of AI, the first $5 trillion company. That AI has not yet proven able to increase productivity or produce any measurable added value has not stopped the hype around it from driving the biggest securities bubble since the late 1990s.

The AI phenomenon may functionally print money for tech billionaires, at least for the time being, but it comes with a gargantuan environmental cost. Its data centers are water and energy hogs and are poised to use ever more fossil fuels and so increase global carbon emissions significantly. MIT researchers estimate that “by 2026, the electricity consumption of data centers is expected to approach 1,050 terawatt-hours,” rivaling that of the energy consumption of whole countries like Japan or Russia. By 2030, it’s estimated that at least a tenth of electricity demand is likely to be driven by new data centers. MIT’s Noman Bashir concludes ominously, “The demand for new data centers cannot be met in a sustainable way. The pace at which companies are building new data centers means the bulk of the electricity to power them must come from fossil fuel-based power plants.”

Bashir’s analysis provides us with the smoking gun for solving the mystery of why the high-tech sector is now trying to kill climate science. Suddenly, Silicon Valley has a monetary reason for wanting to slow down the global movement to reduce the use of fossil fuels (no matter the cost of heating this planet to the boiling point), allying it with Big Oil in that regard. Scientists Michael E. Mann and Peter Hotez have analyzed this sort of billionaire-driven anti-intellectualism in their seminal new book Science Under Siege.

Turbocharging the Climate

One of Bill Gates’s half-truths is that there is good news about our climate progress and so no grounds for doomsaying. It certainly is true that we now have the levers to limit climate damage. That, however, doesn’t change our need to jolt the world aggressively with those very levers. The United Nations has recently concluded that we are indeed on a path to limit (if, under the circumstances, that’s even an adequate word for it) global heating to 2.8 degrees Celsius over the preindustrial average, if the countries of the world were to continue with their current policies, which reflect, however modestly, the global consensus that grew out of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. Before that milestone, the world was marching toward an increase of 3.5º Celsius or more in the average surface temperature of the globe by 2100. The reduction in that projection, achieved over a decade, certainly represents genuine progress and should be celebrated, but the one thing it should not be used for (as Gates indeed does) is as an excuse for now slacking off.

The world’s peoples could shave another significant half a degree off that number if they simply met their Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs. But even were they indeed to be faithful to their promises, we’re being taken inexorably toward at least a 2.3º Celsius global heat increase and, to put that in perspective, climate scientists worry that anything above 1.5º Celsius could ensure that the world’s climate will become devastatingly more chaotic. Imagine repeated Hurricane Melissas, far more turbocharged and striking not just islands in the Caribbean but, say, the U.S. Atlantic coast.

Just as we can’t afford to give in to a sense of doom, we can’t afford to be Pollyannas either. The news already isn’t good and we in the United States in the age of Donald Trump are now facing ever stronger headwinds against climate action. His Republican Party has, of course, enacted wide-ranging pro-carbon policies that will take effect next year and will also take pressure off China and the European Union to accelerate their paths to end the use of fossil fuels. Nor is it likely that the U.N. projections have truly reckoned with the coming proliferation of dirty data centers globally.

Worse yet, even before that hits, the world hasn’t found a way to get on a trajectory that is likely to truly decrease carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions substantially. In fact, the International Energy Agency has reported that “total energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 0.8% in 2024, hitting an all-time high of 37.8 Gt [gigatons] CO2.” In other words, we’re still putting more CO2 into the atmosphere in each succeeding year. It’s only the rate of increase that has slowed somewhat.

And that’s not the end of the bad news either. The 2.8-degree Celsius (5-degree Fahrenheit) increase toward which we’re still headed poses tremendous dangers. The numbers may not sound that dauntingly large, but remember, we’re talking about a global average of surface temperatures. If the average temperature goes up 5º F, that increase could translate into double-digit rises in places like Miami, Florida, and Basra, Iraq. And scientists now believe that, if cities with humidity levels of 80% experience a temperature of 122º F., that combination could be fatal to us humans.

Scientists have a formula for combining humidity and temperature, yielding what they call a “wet bulb” temperature. We cool off by sweating and letting the moisture evaporate from our skins, but that kind of heat and humidity would prevent such a cooling process from kicking in, which could mean that we humans would essentially be cooked to death.

And the danger won’t only be in places like the Gulf of Mexico and similar regions. As NASA warns, “Within 50 years, Midwestern states like Arkansas, Missouri, and Iowa will likely hit the critical wet-bulb temperature limit.” In short, significant parts of this planet could be turned into what might be thought of as the Hot Tub of Death. And with that comes, of course, the possibility of now almost inconceivable mega-storms, droughts, wildfires, and sea-level rise. It’s already projected that, by 2050, only 25 years from now, 200 million people annually will need humanitarian assistance to deal with an increasingly raging climate. That would be a billion people every decade.

Davy Jones’ Locker

In a sense, we’ve lucked out so far because until now so much carbon dioxide has been absorbed by the oceans and other carbon sinks on this planet. On the old, cold Earth of preindustrial times, half of the carbon dioxide produced went into the oceans or was absorbed on land by rainforests, chemical weathering, or rock formations. But the absorptive capacity of the oceans is now decreasing, which means that, if humanity continues to burn staggering quantities of fossil fuels and emit staggering amounts of CO2, we’ll overtax the capacity of the planet’s major carbon sink and ever more new carbon dioxide could then stay in the atmosphere, heating the globe for thousands of years.

The oceans absorb carbon dioxide in more than one way. Carbon dioxide mixes with cold sea water to form carbonic acid, which then splits into hydrogen and bicarbonate ions and the bicarbonate tends to stay in the water. More hydrogen, however, makes the oceans more acidic, which is not good for the marine life on which so many of us depend for food.

Some carbon is also used up by phytoplankton for photosynthesis, turning it into organic matter that is then eaten by other sea creatures and which also ultimately sinks to the ocean floor. But note that the oceans simply can’t take in infinite amounts of carbon dioxide. And if the increasing acidity of the ocean or its rising surface heat kill off a lot of phytoplankton, then their role in absorbing carbon will decline and ever more CO2 will stay in the atmosphere.

Some 90% of global heating is still absorbed by the world’s oceans, the surfaces of which are experiencing rapidly rising temperatures — and the hotter their surfaces get, the less carbon they can bury in Davy Jones’ locker because the water beneath them is growing ever more alkaline.

The Blue Screen of Death

Billionaire Bill Gates carps that a “doomsday outlook” is causing climate activists to “focus too much on near-term emissions goals.” Well, he’s wrong. The focus on near-term emissions goals comes from science. Gates doesn’t even mention the phrase “carbon budget” in his blog entry, which is telling.

After all, we are definitely in a race against time — and there’s no certainty that we’ll win. There is only so much carbon dioxide we can put into the atmosphere if we want to keep the increase in temperature under 1.5º C. And more than that is likely to cause weird, unexpected, and distinctly unpleasant changes in the world’s climate system. Unfortunately, as of 2025, we can only put 130 billion more tons of CO2 into the atmosphere and still meet that goal. At our current rate of emissions, we would use up that budget in — can you believe it? — just three years. What if we want to hold the line at 1.7º C? That budget would be exceeded in only nine years. So, the urgency climate activists feel in limiting short-term emissions derives from a knowledge that we’re rapidly depleting our carbon budget.

Most estimates are that, at current rates of emissions, we’ll use up the carbon budget for limiting warming to 2º C by 2050. Moreover, we will start losing a friend we had in that endeavor. The Earth’s biggest carbon sink, the oceans, will gradually cease being able to take up CO2 in the same quantities.

If cutting our use of fossil fuels means slowing (or even stopping) the rollout of AI data centers, inconveniencing Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and the rest of the crew, well, too bad. AI has its uses, but we clearly don’t need so much more of it desperately enough to thoroughly wreck our planet.

For a couple of decades, when I used a computer with Bill Gates’s Microsoft operating system, I would occasionally lose a day’s work because it abruptly crashed (through no fault of my own). We used to call that malfunction “the blue screen of death.” We don’t need the same thing to happen to the planet’s climate. As climate scientist Michael E. Mann has pointed out, once you’ve crashed this planet, unlike a computer, you won’t be able to reboot it.



© 2023 TomDispatch.com


Juan Cole
Juan Cole teaches Middle Eastern and South Asian history at the University of Michigan. His newest book, "Muhammad: Prophet of Peace Amid the Clash of Empires" was published in 2020. He is also the author of "The New Arabs: How the Millennial Generation Is Changing the Middle East" (2015) and "Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East" (2008). He has appeared widely on television, radio, and on op-ed pages as a commentator on Middle East affairs, and has a regular column at Salon.com. He has written, edited, or translated 14 books and has authored 60 journal articles.
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