It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
In the village of Chongshan generations of residents have made a living creating Buddhist and Taoist sculptures - Copyright AFP Jade GAO
Jing Xuan TENG
In a dimly lit workshop in eastern China, craftsman Zhang measured and shaped a block of wood into a foot as dozens of half-completed life-sized Buddha statues looked on silently.
Zhang is one of a dwindling number of master woodcarvers in the village of Chongshan near the city of Suzhou, where generations of residents have made a living creating Buddhist and Taoist sculptures for display in temples across China.
Carving the intricate statues, which are often adorned with bright paint and gold leaf, was an art he learned from his father as a teenager.
“My grandpa and my grandpa’s grandpa were also craftspeople,” Zhang told AFP in his dusty studio.
But “once our generation retires, there will be no one left to carry on the tradition”.
He blamed a combination of unattractive pay and youngsters’ unwillingness to dedicate time and energy to mastering the craft.
“You need to do this for at least five or six years before you can set up shop on your own.”
Zhang said the village had received a boom in orders starting in the late 20th century, after a loosening of tight government restrictions on worship led to a resurgence of interest in religion across the country.
But now, fewer people are commissioning new pieces with the market already “saturated” and most temples around the country already furnished with statues, Zhang told AFP.
Gu, a 71-year-old artisan at another workshop in Chongshan, said she remembered producing secular handicrafts during the Cultural Revolution, when religion was considered an archaic relic to be eliminated from society by leader Mao Zedong’s followers.
“At the time, the temples were all closed,” Gu told AFP.
Gu, who specialises in carving the heads of Buddha sculptures, proudly showed off the subtle expressions on the faces of a row of gilded figures in her storeroom.
“Every face has an expression, smiling or crying,” Gu said.
She grinned as she explained that some sculptures of famed Buddhist monk Ji Gong even showed him smiling on one side of his face and frowning on the other.
In comparison, wood carver Zhang took a more practical view of his craft.
“People look at us like we’re artists,” he said. “But to us, we’re just creating a product.”
With a new date for the awards ceremony, the European Film Awards are sending a message: they are relevant and European productions deserve more attention in international awards conversation.
The 38th European Film Awards - Europe's equivalent to the Oscars - take place this Saturday in Berlin.
Traditionally held in December, the European Film Academy has shaken things up this year by moving the ceremony to better position the EFAs as part of international awards season, which is in full swing following the Golden Globes.
About damn time.
While the EFAs have often fallen by the wayside when it comes to awards conversation, 2026 marks a new approach: European productions matter, they deserve to be celebrated, and they have nothing to envy Hollywood.
Ok, oversized budgets, but when you look at some of last year’s most memorable films, you’d be hard-pressed not to include some of the stellar creative output the continent was responsible for. We certainly didn't hold back when it came to selecting our 20 favourite films of 2025. And even if the glitzy Oscars will inevitably get the lion’s share of press attention, the artistic value and filmmaking audacity proves how European films are some of the finest around.
Plus, let’s face facts – this year’s US awards season seems like a done deal already. Just give One Battle After Another all the awards it deserves; let Timothée Chalamet hold his first Oscar for Marty Supreme (he’s earned it after that exhausting marketing campaign); and let’s collectively celebrate Sinners as much as possible, shall we?
When it comes to the European Film Awards, the line-up boasts a more diverse, more exciting selection of films – many of which have missed out on the spotlight. Case and point: Hands up those who have seen Raitis and Lauris Abele’s stunning comedy-horror animation film Dog of God or Mailys Vallade and Liane-Cho Han’s adaptation of Amelie Nothomb’s novel, Amélie et la métaphysique des tubes (Little Amelie)...
Thought not. You’re missing out.
Both films are among the 15 movies competing for the main award, Best European Film, and while they’re not going in as favourites, their inclusion shows once again how many unmissable EU productions the EFAs highlight, and how these films need better and wider distribution so audiences don’t miss the chance of seeing some real gems.
This year, favourites for Best European Film include Joachim Trier’s moving family drama Sentimental Value (which has already earned Swedish legend Stellan Skarsgård a Golden Globe and proves once more that Renate Reinsve is one of the most magnetic screen presences around); Oliver Laxe’s bone-shaking post-apocalyptic odyssey Sirāt; and Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or winner It Was Just An Accident, an engrossing and politically charged thriller about the price of revenge which shows how some filmmakers have to put it all on the line for the sake of their craft.
We’re betting Sentimental Value will emerge victorious – a film which has already been getting a lot of awards buzz stateside, and which will undoubtedly face off against Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent for the coveted – and let’s face facts, the most interesting – Oscar gong: Best International Feature Film.
All to say that the EFAs deserve more attention – and this year, the ceremony has a date worthy of its stature on the international stage.
Granted, more hype and marketing campaigns to promote the awards wouldn’t go amiss, but the EFAs are only in their 38th year. Give them time. With their new position in the awards calendar and a terrific set of nominees, it’s clear this is a ceremony that merits being mentioned in the same breath as the Oscars.
Stay tuned to Euronews Culture, as we’ll be in Berlin to bring you coverage from the ceremony on Saturday night, as well as exclusive interviews from this year’s nominees.
Monday, January 05, 2026
New insights reveal how advanced oxidation can tackle emerging water pollutants
Biochar Editorial Office, Shenyang Agricultural University
Scientists have taken a major step toward improving how wastewater treatment systems deal with emerging contaminants such as pharmaceuticals, antibiotics, and endocrine disrupting chemicals. In a new perspective article published in New Contaminants, researchers present a comprehensive framework explaining how advanced oxidation processes, or AOPs, remove these hard to eliminate pollutants from water.
Emerging contaminants are often present at very low concentrations, but they can pose long term risks to ecosystems and human health. Many conventional treatment technologies struggle to remove them completely or efficiently. Advanced oxidation processes have attracted growing attention because they generate highly reactive chemical species that can break down even persistent organic compounds.
The new study reviews AOPs based on three powerful oxidants: persulfate, peracetic acid, and periodate. Among these, persulfate based systems receive special focus due to their stability, flexibility, and strong oxidation capability. The authors identify four major reaction pathways that govern how these systems work: radical oxidation, nonradical oxidation, electron transfer, and polymerization.
“Understanding which pathway dominates under specific conditions is essential for designing treatment systems that are both effective and practical,” said lead author Maoxi Ran of Southwest University. “Without this mechanistic clarity, it is difficult to optimize catalysts, control byproducts, or scale up these technologies for real wastewater.”
The paper highlights that traditional radical based oxidation, while powerful, can be easily disrupted by natural organic matter and common ions in water. In contrast, nonradical pathways such as singlet oxygen and high valent metal oxo species offer higher selectivity and stability, making them especially promising for complex water matrices.
Another emerging concept discussed in the article is polymerization driven removal, in which pollutants are transformed into larger, more stable compounds that can be captured on catalyst surfaces. This approach challenges the long held assumption that complete mineralization is always the ideal goal, and opens new possibilities for low energy and resource efficient water treatment.
“This perspective is not just about reviewing what has been done,” said corresponding author Zhenwu Tang. “We aim to guide future research toward smarter catalyst design, better control of reaction pathways, and real world applicability.”
Looking ahead, the authors emphasize the need for data driven catalyst design, studies involving multiple coexisting pollutants, and systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Together, these advances could help move advanced oxidation processes from the laboratory to full scale wastewater treatment plants, supporting cleaner water and more sustainable environmental management.
===
Journal reference: Ran M, Gong T, Tang ZW. 2025. Removal of new contaminants from wastewater through advanced oxidation processes - a perspective. New Contaminants 1: e020
Researchers at the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics have designed a rhodium catalyst whose microenvironment is tuned by both sulfur and phosphine ligands, based on an industrial single-site Rh1/POPs catalyst. The new “single-site” catalyst hydroformylates propylene and higher olefins up to twice as fast as the current benchmark, while maintaining high selectivity and stability. The study explains how a carefully controlled amount of sulfur can switch from poisoning the catalyst to promoting its performance.
Dalian, China-Sulfur, long feared as a “poison” that shuts down precious metal catalysts, can actually help them work better when used in just the right way, according to new research published in Chinese Journal of Catalysis.
A team led by Prof. Yunjie Ding at Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences andProf. Xueqing Gong at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, has shown that a tiny, carefully tuned amount of sulfur can boost the speed and robustness of a key industrial reaction by up to twofold.
The reaction, called hydroformylation, adds carbon monoxide and hydrogen to simple molecules known as olefins (alkenes) to make aldehydes. These aldehydes are essential building blocks for alcohols, plasticizers, surfactants, lubricants and many other bulk and specialty chemicals. Worldwide, more than 25 million tons of aldehydes and alcohols are made each year by hydroformylation, mostly using rhodium-based catalysts dissolved in liquid.
“Hydroformylation is one of the workhorses of modern chemical industry,” the authors note in the paper. “Designing catalysts that are both highly active and tolerant to real-world, sulfur-containing feedstocks is crucial for greener production.”
Traditionally, sulfur compounds in feed gases or liquids are seen as a serious problem. They bind very strongly to precious metals like rhodium, blocking the active sites and deactivating the catalyst. As a result, major effort is spent on deep desulfurization-removing sulfur as completely as possible before the reaction.
The new study takes a very different approach: instead of fighting sulfur at all costs, the researchers ask whether sulfur can be harnessed and controlled.
Tuning the catalyst’s “microenvironment”
The team builds on an earlier heterogeneous (“solid”) rhodium catalyst, known as Rh₁/POPs-PPh₃, in which isolated rhodium atoms are anchored to a porous organic polymer (POPs-PPh3) through frame-phosphine (frame-P) ligands. That system has already been demonstrated at industrial scale for hydroformylation.
In the new work, the researchers designed a related material where the porous polymer framework contains both phosphine and sulfur sites. When rhodium is introduced, each single rhodium center can be coordinated by a mixture of phosphorus and sulfur atoms, creating a sulfur–phosphine co-coordinated microenvironment (Rh₁/POPs-PPh₃&S).
By varying the ratio of sulfur to phosphine in the polymer, they discovered a “sweet spot”:
At about 10% sulfur in the framework, the new catalyst hydroformylates propylene and C₅–C₈ olefins 1.5–2.0 times faster than the phosphine-only benchmark,
while maintaining high selectivity to the desired linear aldehydes and showing excellent stability in long-term tests.
In contrast, when sulfur dominates the coordination, the catalyst indeed suffers severe sulfur poisoning and its performance drops sharply, confirming that dosage and microenvironment are critical.
Seeing how sulfur helps instead of “hurts”
To understand why a small amount of sulfur promotes rather than harms, the team combined advanced characterization and computer modelling.
Using high-angle annular dark-field scanning transmission electron microscopy (HAADF-STEM) and X-ray absorption spectroscopy, they confirmed that rhodium remains atomically dispersed — as single “mononuclear” centers — in both the original and the sulfur-modified catalysts. Solid-state NMR and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy showed that adding sulfur partly replaces phosphine around rhodium slightly lowers the electron density on the metal.
In simple terms:
Phosphine ligands are strong electron donors. They tend to make rhodium more electron-rich and highly reactive.
Sulfur ligands are more electron-withdrawing and occupy one coordination site, which can moderate rhodium’s reactivity.
Using in-situ infrared spectroscopy under reaction conditions and temperature-programmed surface reaction experiments, the researchers observed that the sulfur–phosphine catalyst forms key aldehyde-forming intermediates faster, while suppressing unwanted hydrogenation and isomerization by-products.
Density functional theory (DFT) calculations then revealed that the rate-determining step in hydroformylation — the insertion of the olefin into a rhodium–hydrogen bond — has a lower energy barrier on the sulfur–phosphine co-coordinated catalyst than on the phosphine-only one. The calculations also showed how the combination of electron-donating phosphine and electron-withdrawing sulfur tunes the charge and bond lengths around rhodium into an optimal window for reactivity and selectivity.
Rethinking “sulfur poison” for real-world feedstocks
The work provides a unified picture of when sulfur behaves as a poison and when it can act as a promoter:
Too little sulfur, and the catalyst behaves like the original phosphine system.
Too much sulfur, and rhodium sites are blocked, leading to classic sulfur poisoning and poor performance.
At an intermediate sulfur level, the microenvironment around single rhodium atoms is ideally tuned, giving higher activity, better regioselectivity and robust stability.
This insight could be particularly important for processing sulfur-containing feedstocks, such as coal-based chemicals, biomass-derived oils, or low-grade olefin streams, where completely removing sulfur is costly or impractical.
“Our results suggest that, instead of treating sulfur as an absolute enemy, we can sometimes design catalysts that tolerate and even use sulfur to their advantage,” the authors write. The concept of microenvironment engineering around single-atom active sites may also be applied to other catalytic reactions beyond hydroformylation.
Article details
The research article, “Regulating microenvironment of heterogeneous Rh mononuclear complex via sulfur-phosphine co-coordination to enhance the performance of hydroformylation of olefins,” by Siquan Feng, Cunyao Li, Yuxuan Zhou, Xiangen Song, Yunjie Ding and co-workers, appears in Chinese Journal of Catalysis (Vol. 78, 2025, pp. 156–169). DOI: 10.1016/S1872-2067(25)64795-4
Corresponding authors:
Prof. Yunjie Ding, Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Email: dyj@dicp.ac.cn
About the Journal
Chinese Journal of Catalysis is co-sponsored by Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Chemical Society, and it is currently published by Elsevier group. This monthly journal publishes in English timely contributions of original and rigorously reviewed manuscripts covering all areas of catalysis. The journal publishes Reviews, Accounts, Communications, Articles, Highlights, Perspectives, and Viewpoints of highly scientific values that help understanding and defining of new concepts in both fundamental issues and practical applications of catalysis. Chinese Journal of Catalysis ranks among the top one journals in Applied Chemistry with a current SCI impact factor of 17.7. The Editors-in-Chief are Profs. Can Li and Tao Zhang.
Regulating microenvironment of heterogeneous Rh mononuclear complex via sulfur-phosphine co-coordination to enhance the performance of hydroformylation of olefins
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Chinese homeschool students embrace freer youth in cutthroat market
Estella, 14, a homeschooled student, does a Spanish class from her bedroom in Shanghai - Copyright AFP Hector RETAMAL
Mary YANG
Fourteen-year-old Estella spends her weekdays studying Spanish, rock climbing or learning acupuncture in her living room as part of her homeschooling since she left China’s gruelling public school system.
Her parents withdrew her from her Shanghai school three years ago, worried she was struggling to keep up with a demanding curriculum they believe will soon be outdated in the era of artificial intelligence (AI).
They are among a small number of parents in China who are rethinking the country’s rigorous education system, in which school days can last 10 hours, with students often working late into the evening on extra tutoring and homework.
“In the future, education models and jobs will face huge changes due to AI,” Estella’s mother Xu Zoe told AFP, using a pseudonym.
“We wanted to get used to the uncertainty early.”
Homeschooling is banned in China, although authorities generally overlook rare individual cases.
Just 6,000 Chinese children were homeschooled in 2017, according to the non-profit 21st Century Education Research Institute. By comparison, China had roughly 145 million primary and middle school students that year.
But that number of homeschoolers had increased annually by around 30 percent from 2013, the institute said.
Supporters say looser schedules centred around practical projects and outdoor activities help nourish creativity that is squashed by the national curriculum.
In Shanghai, Estella’s school day ended at 5:00 pm, and she often spent around four hours a night on homework.
“Instead of just doing a stressful exam in school, I will do the things I was interested (in),” said Estella, who, unlike many students her age, will not be cramming for high school entrance exams she would have taken next year.
Her parents have hired tutors in science, maths, Spanish and gym, and together with Estella decide her schedule.
On a Tuesday afternoon, she was the youngest at a nearby climbing gym, hoisting herself up the wall after a day of online Spanish studies from her living room and an acupuncture lesson taught by her mother.
Xu, 40, said her daughter has grown more confident since leaving the highly competitive public school system.
“We don’t use societal standards to evaluate ourselves but rather, what kind of person we want to be,” she told AFP.
– ‘Jobs are disappearing’ –
Experts say Chinese people are increasingly questioning the value of traditionally prized degrees from elite universities in an oversaturated market.
In 2023, fewer than one in five undergraduates from Shanghai’s prestigious Fudan University found jobs immediately after graduation.
The country’s unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds reached a two-year high of 18.9 percent in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
“(China) has out-produced. Too many PhDs, too many Masters, too many undergraduates. The jobs they are trying to get are disappearing,” Yong Zhao, an author on China’s education system, told AFP.
Chinese authorities have tried to counter the competitive learning culture by cracking down on cram schools in recent years — but tutoring, paid under the table, remains in demand.
While homeschooling is technically illegal, Zhao said families can generally “get away with it without causing too much attention”.
One mother in Zhejiang province, who wished to remain unidentified for fear of repercussions, said she used an AI chatbot to create a lesson plan on recycling for her nine-year-old homeschooled son.
“The development of AI has allowed me to say that what you learn in a classroom, you don’t need anymore,” she told AFP.
Her son studies Chinese and maths using coursework from his former public school in the mornings and spends afternoons working on projects or outdoor activities.
However, his mother, a former teacher, plans to re-enrol her son when he reaches middle school.
“There’s no way to meet his social needs at home,” she said.
– ‘Don’t be afraid’ –
Time with children her age was one of the biggest losses for 24-year-old Gong Yimei, whose father pulled her out of school at age eight to focus on art.
She studied on her own with few teachers, and most of the people she called friends were twice her age.
But at home, Gong told AFP she had more free time to consider her future.
“You ask yourself, ‘What do I like? What do I want? What is the meaning of the things I do’?” said Gong, who hopes to launch an education startup.
“It helped me more quickly find myself.”
Back in Shanghai, college is an uncertainty for Estella, whose family plans to spend time in Europe or South America to improve her Spanish.
Her mother, Xu, is hopeful that homeschooling may become more mainstream in China. Xu said she would encourage other parents considering it to take the leap.
“You don’t need to be afraid,” she said.
Monday, December 29, 2025
OPINION
John Simpson: "I've reported on 40 wars but I've never seen a year like 2025"
29 December 2025 John Simpson, BBC World Affairs Editor
John Simpson is the BBC's World Affairs editor, and one of its most experienced journalists. In this somber and candid article for BBC InDepth Simpson says "I've reported on 40 wars but I've never seen a year like 2025". commonspace.eu is republishing the article in full because of its importance:
I've reported on more than 40 wars around the world during my career, which goes back to the 1960s. I watched the Cold War reach its height, then simply evaporate. But I've never seen a year quite as worrying as 2025 has been - not just because several major conflicts are raging but because it is becoming clear that one of them has geopolitical implications of unparalleled importance.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that the current conflict in his country could escalate into a world war. After nearly 60 years of observing conflict, I've got a nasty feeling he's right.
Ukraine's President has warned that the current conflict in Ukraine could escalate into a world war
Nato governments are on high alert for any signs that Russia is cutting the undersea cables that carry the electronic traffic that keeps Western society going. Their drones are accused of testing the defences of Nato countries. Their hackers develop ways of putting ministries, emergency services and huge corporations out of operation.
Authorities in the west are certain Russia's secret services murder and attempt to murder dissidents who have taken refuge in the West. An inquiry into the attempted murder in Salisbury of the former Russian intelligence agent Sergei Skrypal in 2018 (plus the actual fatal poisoning of a local woman, Dawn Sturgess) concluded that the attack had been agreed at the highest level in Russia. That means President Putin himself. This time feels different
The year 2025 has been marked by three very different wars. There is Ukraine of course, where the UN says 14,000 civilians have died. In Gaza, where Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu promised "mighty vengeance" after about 1,200 people were killed when Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023 and 251 people were taken hostage.
Since then, more than 70,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli military action, including more than 30,000 women and children according to Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry – figures the UN considers reliable.
Meanwhile there has been a ferocious civil war between two military factions in Sudan. More than 150,000 people have been killed there over the past couple of years; around 12 million have been forced out of their homes.
Maybe, if this had been the only war in 2025, the outside world would have done more to stop it; but it wasn't.
"I'm good at solving wars," said US President Donald Trump, as his aircraft flew him to Israel after he had negotiated a ceasefire in the Gaza fighting. It's true that fewer people are dying in Gaza now. Despite the ceasefire, the Gaza war certainly doesn't feel as though it's been solved.
Given the appalling suffering in the Middle East it may sound strange to say the war in Ukraine is on a completely different level to this. But it is.
The Cold War aside, most of the conflicts I've covered over the years have been small-scale affairs: nasty and dangerous, certainly, but not serious enough to threaten the peace of the entire world. Some conflicts, such as Vietnam, the first Gulf War, and the war in Kosovo, did occasionally look as though they might tip over into something much worse, but they never did.
The great powers were too nervous about the dangers that a localised, conventional war might turn into a nuclear one.
"I'm not going to start the Third World War for you," the British Gen Sir Mike Jackson reportedly shouted over his radio in Kosovo in 1999, when his Nato superior ordered British and French forces to seize an airfield in Pristina after the Russian troops had got there first.
In the coming year, 2026, though, Russia, noting President Trump's apparent lack of interest in Europe, seems ready and willing to push for much greater dominance.
Earlier this month, Putin said Russia was not planning to go to war with Europe, but was ready "right now" if Europeans wanted to.
At a later televised event he said: "There won't be any operations if you treat us with respect, if you respect our interests just as we've always tried to respect yours".
Putin said Russia was not planning to go to war with Europe, but was ready "right now" if Europeans wanted to
But already Russia, a major world power, has invaded an independent European country, resulting in huge numbers of civilian and also military deaths. It is accused by Ukraine of kidnapping at least 20,000 children. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for his involvement in this, something Russia has always denied.
Russia says it invaded in order to protect itself against Nato encroachment, but President Putin has indicated another motive: the desire to restore Russia's regional sphere of influence. American disapproval
He is gratefully aware that this last year, 2025, has seen something most Western countries had regarded as unthinkable: the possibility that an American president might turn his back on the strategic system which has been in force ever since World War Two.
Not only is Washington now uncertain it wants to protect Europe, it disapproves of the direction it believes Europe is heading in. The Trump administration's new national security strategy report claims Europe now faces the "stark prospect of civilisational erasure".
The Kremlin welcomed the report, saying it is consistent with Russia's own vision. You bet it is.
Inside Russia, Putin has silenced most internal opposition to himself and to the Ukraine war, according to the UN special rapporteur focusing on human rights in Russia. He's got his own problems, though: the possibility of inflation rising again after a recent cooling, oil revenues falling, and his government having had to raise VAT to help pay for the war.
US President Donald Trump and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky clashed during a meeting at the White House in February 2025
The economies of the European Union are 10 times bigger than Russia's; even more than that if you add the UK. The combined European population of 450 million, is over three times Russia's 145 million. Still, Western Europe has seemed nervous of losing its creature comforts, and was until recently reluctant to pay for its own defence as long as America can be persuaded to protect it.
America, too, is different nowadays: less influential, more inward-looking, and increasingly different from the America I've reported on for my entire career. Now, very much as in the 1920s and 30s, it wants to concentrate on its own national interests.
Even if President Trump loses a lot of his political strength at next year's mid-term elections, he may have shifted the dial so far towards isolationism that even a more Nato-minded American president in 2028 might find it hard to come to Europe's aid.
Don't think Vladimir Putin hasn't noticed that. The risk of escalation
The coming year, 2026, does look as though it'll be important. Zelensky may well feel obliged to agree to a peace deal, carving off a large part of Ukrainian territory. Will there be enough bankable guarantees to stop President Putin coming back for more in a few years' time?
For Ukraine and its European supporters, already feeling that they are at war with Russia, that's an important question. Europe will have to take over a far greater share of keeping Ukraine going, but if the United States turns its back on Ukraine, as it sometimes threatens to do, that will be a colossal burden.
If the United States turns its back on Ukraine, that will be a colossal burden for Europe
But could the war turn into a nuclear confrontation?
We know President Putin is a gambler; a more careful leader would have shied away from invading Ukraine in February 2022. His henchmen make bloodcurdling threats about wiping the UK and other European countries off the map with Russia's vaunted new weapons, but he's usually much more restrained himself.
While the Americans are still active members of Nato, the risk that they could respond with a devastating nuclear attack of their own is still too great. For now. China's global role
As for China, President Xi Jinping has made few outright threats against the self-governed island of Taiwan recently. But two years ago the then director of the CIA William Burns said Xi Jinping had ordered the People's Liberation Army to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. If China doesn't take some sort of decisive action to claim Taiwan, Xi Jinping could consider this to look pretty feeble. He won't want that.
You might think that China is too strong and wealthy nowadays to worry about domestic public opinion. Not so. Ever since the uprising against Deng Xiaoping in 1989, which ended with the Tiananmen massacre, Chinese leaders have monitored the way the country reacts with obsessive care.
I watched the events unfold in Tiananmen myself, reporting and even sometimes living in the Square.
The story of 4 June 1989 wasn't as simple as we thought at the time: armed soldiers shooting down unarmed students. That certainly happened, but there was another battle going on in Beijing and many other Chinese cities. Thousands of ordinary working-class people came out onto the streets, determined to use the attack on the students as a chance to overthrow the control of the Chinese Communist Party altogether.
When I drove through the streets two days later, I saw at least five police stations and three local security police headquarters burned out. In one suburb the angry crowd had set fire to a policeman and propped up his charred body against a wall. A uniform cap was put at a jaunty angle on his head, and a cigarette had been stuck between his blackened lips.
It turns out the army wasn't just putting down a long-standing demonstration by students, it was stamping out a popular uprising by ordinary Chinese people.
China's political leadership, still unable to bury the memories of what happened 36 years ago, is constantly on the look-out for signs of opposition - whether from organised groups like Falun Gong or the independent Christian church or the democracy movement in Hong Kong, or just people demonstrating against local corruption. All are stamped on with great force.
I have spent a good deal of time reporting on China since 1989, watching its rise to economic and political dominance. I even came to know a top politician who was Xi Jinping's rival and competitor. His name was Bo Xilai, and he was an anglophile who spoke surprisingly openly about China's politics.
He once said to me, "You'll never understand how insecure a government feels when it knows it hasn't been elected."
As for Bo Xilai, he was jailed for life in 2013 after being found guilty of bribery, embezzlement and abuse of power.
John Simpson has spent a good deal of time reporting on China since 1989 (pictured in Tiananmen Square, 2016)
Altogether, then, 2026 looks like being an important year. China's strength will grow, and its strategy for taking over Taiwan - Xi Jinping's great ambition - will become clearer. It may be that the war in Ukraine will be settled, but on terms that are favourable to President Putin.
He may be free to come back for more Ukrainian territory when he's ready. And President Trump, even though his political wings could be clipped in November's mid-term elections, will distance the US from Europe even more.
From the European point of view, the outlook could scarcely be more gloomy.
If you thought World War Three would be a shooting-match with nuclear weapons, think again. It's much more likely to be a collection of diplomatic and military manoeuvres, which will see autocracy flourish. It could even threaten to break up the Western alliance.
And the process has already started.
source: commonspace.eu with BBC (London).
photo: John Simpson
The views expressed in opinion pieces and commentaries do not necessarily reflect the position of commonspace.eu or its partners
