Hindu Kush Himalaya Faces Drier but More Dangerous Monsoon in 2026, Warn Scientists

Mohd. Imran Khan | 12 Jun 2026

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In a recent outlook report, ICIMOD experts caution that the risk of flash floods, landslides and other hazards remains high.

Representational Image. Image Courtesy: Wikimedia Commons

Kathmandu/Patna: Amid the El Nino threat and likely below normal rainfall in monsoon this year, as forecast by the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD), disaster risks continue to pose a big challenge in India and other neighbouring countries of Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH).

Scientists and climate change experts at Kathmandu-based ICIMOD said that the below-normal monsoon forecast for parts of HKH in 2026 is not expected to reduce disaster risks. They warned that short bursts of intense rainfall, rising temperatures, and growing water stress could make the season increasingly dangerous.

Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) Monsoon Outlook 2026, published on June 12, projects lower-than-normal rainfall across several countries, including Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, alongside above-normal temperatures across much of the region. 

Despite this, experts caution that the risk of flash floods, landslides and other hazards remains high. “Even in a weaker monsoon, short periods of intense rainfall remain a major concern,” said Manish Shrestha, Hydrologist at ICIMOD, adding “communities and authorities need to closely follow short-term forecasts and advisories."

The combination of erratic rainfall and rising temperatures is expected to increase both drought and flood risks during the same season. Long dry spells may be followed by sudden heavy downpours, creating conditions for flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountain areas.

“The outlook points to a drier monsoon overall, but that does not mean lower risk,” Shrestha added.

Shrestha said warmer conditions are also likely to intensify heat stress and reduce water availability. Lower snow persistence at the start of the season further weakens the region’s natural water buffer, making river systems and groundwater recharge more sensitive to rainfall variability.

“Lower snow persistence means the region is entering the monsoon with a reduced seasonal water buffer,” said Sarthak Shrestha, co-author of the outlook.

According to experts, these combined risks are already complicating disaster planning and response management across South Asia.

 “The growing unpredictability of the monsoon is already creating coordination challenges,” said Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Water and DRR Lead at ICIMOD. “Preparedness now requires stronger coordination between government, technical agencies, and local authorities,” she added.

The outlook highlights increasing pressure on food production, water resources, and energy systems, as well as heightened vulnerability in both rural and urban areas.

In the case of India, the outlook gives disaster management authorities a critical window to prepare. As per Navneet Yadav, Team Lead for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Resilience at Palladium India, “Even within a weaker monsoon, short and intense rainfall can still trigger flash floods and landslides in mountain valleys.” 

Similarly, in the case of Nepal, even in a weaker monsoon, short periods of intense rainfall remain a major concern,”said Manish Shrestha.

While in Bangladesh, the monsoon outlook points to a challenging season with combined risks of heat and uneven rainfall,” according to A.K.M. Saiful Islam, Professor at the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology. Disaster management agencies need to strengthen impact-based forecasting and preparedness, the risks are increasingly complex and interconnected, he added. 

“Erratic rainfall following long dry spells increases the risk of landslides,” said Ranit Chatterjee, CEO of Rika India. “This can worsen socio-economic pressures, including migration, rising food prices, energy stress, and disruptions to tourism.”

Scientists also stress the need for stronger early warning systems and impact-based forecasting.

“Drought and flood risks can no longer be managed separately,” said Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Senior Adviser at ICIMOD, adding that “Early warning systems, short-term forecasts, and locally driven preparedness need to work together to address increasingly complex hazards.”

With climate variability increasing, experts warn that preparing for a single type of hazard is no longer sufficient.

“The era of preparing for a single, predictable hazard is over,” said Saswata Sanyal, DRR specialist at ICIMOD. “Anticipatory action and early warning must now be the foundation.”

The HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026 is based on forecasts from multiple global and regional climate models and is intended to support governments, disaster management agencies, and communities in planning and preparedness ahead of the June–September monsoon season.

Climate Change And The Future Of Central Asia-South Asia Connectivity – Analysis

The Middle Corridor -- or the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route -- is a network of roads, railroads, and ports that connect China to Europe. It offers an alternative to a northern route which largely passes through Russia, and to maritime routes. Credit: RFE/RL

June 12, 2026 
By Dr. Shanthie Mariet D Souza

At the 64th session of the U.N. climate framework (UNFCCC) subsidiary bodies (SB64) in Bonn, Germany, which is running June 8-18, India – alongside a host of international groupings spanning the ideological spectrum – has called for direct action on a widening gap in climate-relevant funding. Whether any concrete outcomes will emerge from the ongoing meeting is so far unclear. Nevertheless, thousands of kilometers to the east, in Central as well as South Asia, the consequences of inaction are significant, not just for climate mitigation and adaptation goals of the regions’ countries, but also for the ambitious regional connectivity projects between the two.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya region, which stretches across Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan, is arguably the epicenter of the climate emergency confronting both Central and South Asia. According to estimates, glaciers across the 3,500-kilometer arc, also known as the Third Pole, are retreating 65 percent faster than in the previous decade. Ten major river basins originate from the region. The glacier melt can potentially threaten the water supply for nearly 2 billion people across all eight countries. The region has already recorded a 23-year low in snow persistence for the third consecutive year. In 2025, for instance, the Indus river basin ran 16 percent below normal and some eastern river basins are facing deficits of up to 50 percent.

In Central Asia, there is a different crisis, involving a dearth of water. Over the past 70 years, the region has already warmed by 1.2 degrees C, which has led to a 20 percent decline in snow depth. Projected temperature rise of 2-6 degrees C by century’s end threatens to intensify droughts and land degradation. Already, 2024 saw the region’s worst flooding in over 70 years, even as the Western Himalayas, eastern Iran, and parts of Afghanistan experienced below-normal precipitation. This pattern of extremes can become more frequent.

Against this backdrop, I participated in the second Termez Dialogue, held on June 4-6 in Uzbekistan. The primary theme of the event was connectivity between Central and South Asia, with an additional focus on climate change and environmental resilience related to the ambitious regional connectivity projects. The dialogue also highlighted a growing recognition that connectivity and climate adaptation must be seen as intertwined agendas. The discussion emphasized that Afghanistan plays a crucial role as a strategic link between Central and South Asia. Therefore, it is essential to integrate Afghanistan into regional climate adaptation frameworks and conversations to ensure both environmental security and physical connectivity.


The dialogue is part of Uzbekistan’s urgent exploration of the possibilities for implementing several major infrastructure projects linking Central and South Asia, most of which run through Afghanistan. Apart from the bottlenecks posed by regional rivalries, there is also a realization that projects such as CASA-1000, the INSTC, and the TAPI pipeline, all still in their incipient stages of implementation despite being under discussion for decades, were conceptualized on environmental assumptions that climate change seems on the verge of now to be undermining.

Take, for instance, the curious case of the Central Asia-South Asia (CASA-1000) project, originally conceptualized as far back as 2008. The logic of this $1.2 billion power transmission effort, designed to carry surplus hydroelectricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan, rests on the existence of surplus glacial and snowmelt-fed hydropower in the summer months. If projections of continuing glacial retreat, as well as consequent peaking river flows followed by declines after 2050, hold, those surpluses could disappear entirely. Unless climate resilience is inbuilt into the project, as the World Bank clearly underlines, hydropower generation can undergo significant disruption, driving the project into a no-show. Therefore, hydropower projections for the project need to be stress-tested against climate scenarios, not just current hydrology.

While one can argue that the involved countries will still derive benefit from the project for more than two decades, Afghanistan’s incapacity to generate finances for its share of the project has introduced a roadblock. There seems to be no way around this, unless the Taliban generate revenue or convince international donors to unfreeze financing. Both seem to be a herculean task but a necessary condition to break the current impasse.


The $10 billion Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project, the initial concept for which dates to the 1990s, is set to traverse some of the most climate-vulnerable and politically fragile terrain in the world. A desertifying and drought-prone Afghanistan is not the most ideal terrain to build and operate the infrastructure needed for the project. Therefore, the pipeline routes for the project need to account for changing precipitation and temperature profiles across Afghanistan and Pakistan, in addition to managing the acrimonious relationships between these two countries and the associated funding challenges.

In contrast, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-kilometer multi-modal network connecting India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Central Asia, which originated in 2002, is somewhat less directly exposed to glacial dynamics. The project is of immense importance to India. Still, extreme weather events along its overland and maritime routes face scenarios of shifting precipitation patterns, which have cast a shadow over the integration of road and rail networks. The INSTC, without significant climate resilience modifications, may not prove viable in the long run. It needs to factor in the increased frequency of extreme weather events that will test road, rail, and port infrastructure over their operational lifetimes.

Uzbekistan’s climate adaptation funding deficit is estimated at $7.2 billion through 2030. The country is actively seeking international climate finance to close the gap, experimenting with green investments and agricultural water-saving technologies, and attempting to shift from state-led fossil fuel dependence toward renewable energy and climate resilience.

As could perhaps be expected, the countries most exposed to these climate risks are also among those least equipped to manage them without external assistance. Climate negotiations in the past years have become all about forceful articulation of positions and a bit of grand bargaining. U.S. President Donald Trump’s exit from the global climate treaty puts enormous pressure even on the wealthy and willing countries to provide finances for the adaptation and mitigation funds. It is for this reason that India has been insisting that climate financing is at the core of adaptation. But the gnawing gap between the ambitions being expressed in Bonn and the institutional architecture available to channel resources toward projects such as CASA-1000 or TAPI remains wide.

The climate crisis unfolding across the Hindu Kush Himalaya and Central Asia can reshape the viability of these ambitious connectivity projects. While these were conceived in a different climatic reality, and did not include deliberate climate-proofing, they now risk becoming stranded investments. Forums such as the Termez Dialogue signal a growing awareness and interest in binding connectivity and climate resilience together. An institutional bridge between climate finance negotiations and on-the-ground infrastructure planning in South and Central Asia could be the next target for these two regions if they intend to implement these much-delayed projects and derive economic benefits along with environmental safety for the region.

This article was published at The Diplomat


About Dr. Shanthie Mariet D Souza
Dr. Shanthie Mariet D'Souza is President & Founder of Mantraya; Consultant/ Security and Political Analyst; Expert and Contributor to the Middle East-Asia Project (MAP) at the Middle East Institute, Washington DC; Senior Analyst, South Asia desk, Wikistrat Analytic Community, New York; Associate Editor, Journal of Asian Security & International Affairs, Sage Publications; Strategic Studies Network (SSN) Fellow, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University, Washington DC; Advisor, Independent Conflict Research & Analysis (ICRA), London. Shanthie has previously been Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS).
View all posts by Dr. Shanthie Mariet D Souza →

India Among 4 Countries in HKH Region That Saw Over 10 Major Disasters in 2025

Mohd. Imran Khan | 16 May 2026

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ICIMOD’s analysis of EM-data shows that across the region, about 1.2 million people were displaced or directly affected by disasters last year.

Representational Image. Image Courtesy: Wikimedia Commons

Climate change has increased the risk of disasters. India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region experienced more than 10 major disasters in 2025, as per a latest scientific study by experts.

Asia accounted for a large share of disasters globally in 2025, a trend reflected in the HKH, which spans parts of South and East Asia. Four of the eight countries in the HKH region are more vulnerable to disasters, according to data analysis by the Kathmandu-based ICIMOD, highlighting the region’s growing exposure to hazard-related risks.

ICIMOD’s analysis of EM-Data shows that countries in the HKH region experienced economic losses of more than $$6 billion in 2024 alone from these events, with most of the damage linked to water-related hazards, such as floods, landslides and storms.

The situation continued into 2025. Intense monsoon rainfall triggered repeated flooding and landslides across several HKH countries, including Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. Other hazards, such as glacial lake outburst floods, were also reported in select locations. Across the region, about 1.2 million people were displaced or directly affected by disasters during the year. 

Globally, disaster-related economic losses in 2025 were estimated at more than $169 billion. In comparison, losses recorded across the HKH highlight how extreme events translate into disproportionate impacts in a region characterised by complex terrain and high exposure. 

Data also shows that Myanmar, Pakistan, and China experienced a series of monsoon-induced floods in 2025, causing widespread damage to infrastructure and livelihoods. 

Researchers link the increasing impact of disasters in the HKH to the growing prevalence of multi-hazard events. Multi-hazards occur when more than one type of hazard, such as floods, landslides, or droughts, happen at the same time or when one hazard triggers another. Past examples in the region include the Kedarnath floods in Uttarakhand in 2013, and the South Lhonak glacial lake outburst flood in Sikkim in 2023, India, as well as the Melamchi flood in Nepal in 2021. 

“Recent years show how floods, landslides, and other hazards are increasingly overlapping in mountain regions, amplifying damages to homes, infrastructure, and essential services,” said Pema Gyamtsho, Director General at ICIMOD, commenting on the regional trend. 

Long-term data covering the period from 1975 to 2024 shows a decline in death rates and the number of people affected by disasters in the HKH after 2013. Analysts caution that data gaps may influence this trend, but improvements in preparedness and early warning systems may also be contributing factors. 

“The numbers are still worrying, but the post-2013 trend suggests fewer lives are being affected year on year, which may reflect better climate services and preparedness in parts of the region,” said Manish Shrestha, a hydrologist at ICIMOD, adding that “sustained investment in preparedness and planning remains critical as risks continue to rise.” 

Early warning systems have been credited with reducing losses in some flood-prone areas. In eastern Nepal, alerts issued from a flood early warning system along the Khando River in 2024 helped inform and evacuate around 60,000 people living downstream. 

Analysts note that reducing future disaster losses in the HKH will also depend on risk-informed investments, where development and infrastructure planning take multi hazard risks into account. Without integrating hazard and vulnerability data into investment decisions, exposed communities risk locking in higher losses as climate driven extremes intensify. 

Experts warn that multi hazard risks are likely to intensify in the coming years as climate change alters weather patterns and increases the frequency and severity of extreme events, leaving exposed communities across the HKH vulnerable to escalating losses.

Whose Liberation Is It Anyway: The U.S. Intervention Playbook

For decades, US foreign policy has adopted the pattern of ‘selective liberation’—the deployment of human rights language when aligned with US strategic interests and its relative absence when it conflicts with them

Mrinalini Dhyani
Updated on: 11 March 2026

OUTLOOK INDIA


Lives, Disrupted: A US military tank next to a mosque in Baghdad in 2003 | Photo: Imago/AbcaPress

Summary of this article

U.S. military interventions—from Iraq and Afghanistan to Libya and Iran—have often been framed as missions of freedom and democracy, but critics say this rhetoric appears selectively depending on Washington’s strategic interests.

Regime-change interventions have frequently produced prolonged conflict or political instability, as seen in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, raising questions about whether democracy can be imposed through military force.

Analysts argue that the U.S. invokes human rights and liberation against adversaries but rarely uses the same language in conflicts involving allies, shaping global perceptions of American power and credibility.


On March 19, 2003, as American forces crossed into Iraq, President George W. Bush addressed the world from the White House.

“The people of the United States and our friends and allies will not live at the mercy of an outlaw regime that threatens the peace with weapons of mass murder. We will pass along to our children all the freedoms we enjoy, and chief among them is freedom from fear,” he said.

Within weeks, Baghdad fell. Statues of Saddam Hussein were pulled down in scenes broadcast globally as visual shorthand for liberation. But by the end of that year, Iraq had descended into insurgency.

For decades, the United States has framed key foreign interventions as missions of liberation, to free people from dictatorship, terrorism or repression. From Baghdad to Kabul, American leaders have spoken of democracy, women’s rights and human dignity. Yet in other conflicts, particularly Palestine, Washington’s posture has been markedly different, relying on strategic alliances or limited military engagement without invoking the same liberation rhetoric.

Critics call this pattern ‘selective liberation’: the deployment of human rights language when aligned with US strategic interests and its relative absence when it conflicts with them.

The idea resurfaced sharply on February 28, 2026, when a joint US-Israeli military campaign struck targets across Iran. Within hours, Iranian state media confirmed that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed in the strikes.

The death of a sitting supreme leader at the hands of foreign militaries was unprecedented in the modern history of the Islamic Republic and immediately triggered geopolitical shockwaves. Protests erupted across West Asia and South Asia. Demonstrators gathered in Karachi, Baghdad and Tehran, while anti-war rallies also took place in Washington and New York.

One protester in Washington told The Guardian, “We’ve seen this play out before; regime change doesn’t end conflicts, it just creates new ones.”


The US justification for the operation rested partly on concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme. Yet Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, appeared to complicate that narrative, noting that inspectors had not found evidence that Iran was actively building a nuclear bomb, even though concerns remained about enriched uranium stockpiles.


As many as 1,332 people have been killed so far, according to the Iranian Red Crescent. Nearly 168 schoolgirls and staff were killed in the attack by the Israeli missile on the Shajareh Tayyebeh school. Most of the victims were students aged seven to 12 years old.



The episode revived a long-standing debate among analysts about how the United States frames its military interventions.


“The United States has always relied on very high-sounding principles to justify power politics,” says Talmiz Ahmad, a veteran diplomat and West Asia expert. “During the Cold War, the rhetoric was about defending the ‘free world’ against authoritarian communism. Today, it is about democracy confronting authoritarian rule. The language changes, but the logic of power remains the same,” he adds.

According to Ahmad, the gap between rhetoric and reality has been a defining feature of American foreign policy for decades. “If you look historically, very few countries have become stable democracies as a direct result of US military intervention,” he says.

The invasion of Iraq remains the most widely cited example of liberation rhetoric colliding with geopolitical reality. In 1998, the US Congress passed the Iraq Liberation Act, formally declaring that removing Saddam Hussein and promoting democracy in Iraq was official American policy. After the September 11 attacks, the Bush administration framed regime change as both a strategic necessity and a moral imperative.

Bush repeatedly described the war as an effort to free Iraqis from dictatorship. “The Iraqi people are worthy and capable of self-government,” he says.

No stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction, one of the central justifications for the invasion, were ever found.

According to the Costs of War Project at Brown University, the war led to roughly 268,000 to 295,000 deaths between 2003 and 2018, including more than 180,000 civilians. Sectarian violence tore through Iraqi society, millions were displaced and the collapse of state institutions helped create conditions for the rise of ISIS.

“We wanted freedom. We did not want chaos,” an Iraqi civil servant told The New York Times in 2004, a sentiment that came to define how many Iraqis viewed the aftermath of the invasion.

Two years earlier, the United States had launched another war framed through the language of liberation.

After the September 11 attacks, Washington invaded Afghanistan to dismantle al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban government that had sheltered the group’s leadership. The intervention initially enjoyed broad international support.

But as the war expanded into a two-decade nation-building project, American rhetoric increasingly emphasised democracy and women’s rights.

In a radio address in 2001, First Lady Laura Bush declared that the fight against terrorism was also “a fight for the rights and dignity of women.”

Girls returned to school, billions in aid flowed into reconstruction projects and elections were held under a new constitution.

Yet, the Taliban were never fully defeated. When US troops withdrew in 2021, the Afghan government collapsed within weeks and the Taliban returned to power. “They spoke of liberating us,” an Afghan women’s rights activist later told the BBC. “But liberation without security is temporary.”

Historian Vijay Prashad, director of the Tricontinental Institute for Social Research, believes the pattern is deeply embedded in American foreign policy. “The United States has never been genuine about its use of terms such as human rights or its concern about Iran’s nuclear programme. Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the project has essentially been the overthrow of the Islamic Republic,” he says.

To Prashad, the rhetoric surrounding Iran today echoes language used in earlier interventions. Washington frequently presents conflicts as struggles between freedom and tyranny, yet its alliances rarely follow those same moral lines. “Terms like ‘human rights’ or ‘democracy’ appear when governments opposed to the United States come to power. When friendly regimes rule, the same language disappears,” he argues.

Nowhere is that rhetoric more conspicuously absent than in the Israel-Palestine conflict.

While the United States officially supports a two-state solution, it has also remained Israel’s closest strategic ally, providing billions in military assistance and shielding it diplomatically at the United Nations.

Human rights organisations, including Human Rights Watch, have documented alleged violations in the occupied Palestinian territories, including settlement expansion and restrictions on movement.

Since October 2023, Gaza has witnessed devastating violence. According to Palestinian health authorities, tens of thousands of people have been killed during the conflict. Yet, Washington rarely frames the crisis in terms of Palestinian liberation.

“Israel is the United States’ most important strategic ally in West Asia,” says senior journalist Seema Sirohi. “That is why you see a very different approach. The US supports a two-state solution in principle, but it has never really put the kind of diplomatic muscle behind it that might force a settlement,” she adds.

In 2011, the United States joined NATO’s intervention in Libya during the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi. The operation was framed as a humanitarian effort to prevent civilian massacres.

The intervention succeeded in toppling Gaddafi but left Libya fractured between rival governments and militias. Former US President Barack Obama later described the failure to stabilise Libya after the war as the “worst mistake” of his presidency.

This, Max Abrahms, a scholar of US foreign policy and terrorism, says, is a way for American leaders to frame interventions differently depending on political circumstances. “The stated rationale for intervention can change depending on what is politically acceptable at the time. The United States said it was intervening to protect civilians, but the real outcome was regime change,” says Abrahms.


In Sudan, decades of sanctions and diplomatic engagement have failed to prevent the country’s descent into another devastating civil war.

For Ahmad, these examples illustrate the limits of external intervention as a tool for democratic transformation. “Change cannot be imposed through military power. Real political transformation has to emerge from within societies themselves,” he says.

Iranian author and historian Arash Azizi says the reaction among Iranians themselves has been deeply divided. “Many anti-regime Iranians believed Donald Trump when he said help was on the way and thought the United States could play an emancipatory role. But now they are faced with rising civilian casualties and no clear path to the regime change they hoped for,” he says.

Azizi adds that the Gaza war has also reshaped how Iranians view American power. “Israel’s assault on Gaza, with full US support, has tarnished the American image around the world. Iranians have complex views of the conflict because of their own government’s support for Hamas, but the perception of US double standards is widespread,” says Azizi.

In Venezuela, Washington recognised opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the country’s legitimate president in 2019 and later conducted a controversial operation that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. The intervention was justified as a response to narcotics trafficking and authoritarian rule, but critics argued it violated international law.

In each case, the outcomes have been contested and unstable. The recurring pattern raises a fundamental question: can liberation ever be imposed from outside?

Prashad believes history suggests otherwise. “Change cannot come with a destructive war from outside that then tries to enforce something. We have no successful examples of that. Transformation must come from within societies themselves,” he says.

The contradiction between rhetoric and reality continues to shape global perceptions of American power. When liberation is invoked selectively, loudly in some conflicts and absent in others, the language of freedom itself begins to lose credibility.

Across Iran, Afghanistan and Iraq, military operations are shaped by geography. Much of Afghanistan and western Iran is dominated by rugged mountain systems such as the Hindu Kush and the Zagros Mountains, where steep slopes and narrow passes restrict troop movement, complicate supply lines and offer natural cover for ambushes and guerrilla tactics. These landscapes then transition into deserts and plains across Iraq and parts of Iran, allowing easier movement for mechanised forces but exposing troops to long-range attacks and difficult urban warfare.

Against this backdrop, Ahmad argues that a large-scale ground war remains unlikely for now. Drawing on the experience of US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, he says Washington has learned that “boots on the ground” turn soldiers into direct targets, which is why military objectives are more often pursued through bombardment rather than a land invasion. Any attempt at war, he suggests, would face strong domestic pressure if casualties begin to mount in the United States.


“So long as there are no casualties, the US can get away with mass murder,” says Ahmad.

Mrinalini Dhyani is a senior correspondent at Outlook. She covers governance, health, gender and conflict, with a strong emphasis on lived realities behind policy debates.

This article is part of Outlook 's March 21 issue 'Bombs Do Not Liberate Women' which looks at the conflict in West Asia following US and Israel’s attacks on Iran leading to the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while the world wondered in loud silence, again, Whose War Is It Anyway?

Sudden Glacier Collapse, Fastest Ever

Robert Hunziker

March 6, 2026

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Image by Robert Wong.

Hektoria Glacier (Antarctica) retreated 8 kilometers (5 miles) in only two months; one-half of the structure collapsing in record time. This is the fastest glacier collapse ever, and the message to the world is very clear: Global Warming looks like it’s ahead of schedule. (Antarctica Just Saw the Fastest Glacier Collapse Ever Recorded, ScienceDaily d/d February 26, 2026)

The world climate system is starting to unravel faster than expected. Sea level rise estimates by major institutions such as the IPCC should probably be tossed out the window. Global warming is not waiting around for guesstimates. Hektoria Glacier is real time evidence that the consequences of global warming are ahead of expectations.

A few more warnings like this and the mayors of mega-coastal cities New York, London, Manila, Tokyo, Shanghai, Mumbai, Lagos, Jakarta, Karachi, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, Guangzhou, Osaka, Istanbul will demand answers, red-faced, pounding the table with clenched fists, as to why countries like the United States ignorantly promote fossil fuels, kill climate science, and destroy clean renewable policies when nearly 100% of the world’s scientists agree fossil fuels are the primary cause of destructive global warming. “More than 99.9% of peer-reviewed scientific papers agree that climate change is mainly caused by humans, according to a new survey of 88,125 climate-related studies.” (Cornell Chronicle)

According to ScienceDaily: “Antarctica’s Hektoria Glacier stunned scientists by retreating eight kilometers in just two months, with nearly half of it collapsing in record time… Satellite and seismic data captured the dramatic chain reaction in near real time. The findings raise concerns that much larger glaciers could one day collapse just as quickly.”

Indeed, scientists were taken aback: “When we flew over Hektoria… I couldn’t believe the vastness of the area that had collapsed,’ said Naomi Ochwat, lead author and CIRES postdoctoral researcher. ‘I had seen the fjord and notable mountain features in the satellite images, but being there in person filled me with astonishment at what had happened,” Ibid.

According to senior research scientist Ted Scambos, University of Colorado/Boulder: “Hektoria’s retreat is a bit of a shock — this kind of lightning-fast retreat really changes what’s possible for other, larger glaciers on the continent… If the same conditions set up in some of the other areas, it could greatly speed up sea level rise from the continent,” Ibid.

In a very real sense, the Hektoria incident is fortuitous because the glacier is only 115 square miles, or roughly the extent of a large city, not one of the large glaciers. It therefore gives scientists a solid glimpse of a new danger, meaning, this is real time evidence, if large glaciers collapse as quickly as Hektoria did, then global sea level rise could be severe, catching the world unaware, unprepared. As such, according to polar scientists, Hektoria is a commanding siren signal to get off fossil fuels as soon as possible.

According to a recent Antarctic study by the prestigious Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research d/d Feb. 16, 2026:”Ricarda Winkelmann, just returning from several weeks of fieldwork in Antarctica, adds that seeing how rapidly some regions in Antarctica are already responding to anthropogenic climate change, how extreme weather events are not only becoming more frequent but lead to subsequent changes in the ice dynamics, really puts into perspective the vulnerability of this vast ice sheet. Our mapping of potential regional tipping points shows where the greatest risks lie on the long term, and which regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet need closest monitoring. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions rapidly is imperative to prevent further destabilization of ice basins.”

Polar scientists have gone public about acceleration of Antarctica’s glaciers for a couple of years now and have issued warnings to the public about the tenuousness of the situation, to wit: In August 2024 at the 11^th Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research held in Pucón, Chile attended by 1,500 scientists: “Antarctica’s glacial melt is advancing faster than ever before in recorded history.”

Gino Casassa, PhD, an attendee glaciologist Head of the Chilean Antarctic Institute stated: “Based upon current trends, sea levels will be up 13 feet by 2100,” which begs the obvious question of the level by 2035-40, assuming Dr. Casassa is correct, after all, 13 feet won’t all happen in 2099 (there’s no public record of any other scientists with such an aggressive forecast).

Additionally. in November 2024, 450 polar scientists held an emergency meeting at the Australian Antarctic Research Conference to announce, via a press release: “If we don’t act, and quickly, the melting of Antarctica ice could cause catastrophic sea level rise around the globe within our lifetimes.” Moreover, “we’ve found immense global warming induced shifts in the region.” This was an appeal to the general public to take preventative measures: “Drastic action is necessary… CO2 emissions must stop.”

“Antarctica is melting ice more than six times faster than it was 20 years ago, according to satellite imagery… Runaway ice loss causing rapid and catastrophic sea-level rise is possible within our lifetimes. Our societies must set and meet targets to ‘bend the carbon curve’ as quickly as possible.” (Australian Antarctic Research Conference, 2024)

Large Methane Leaks Discovered in Antarctica, Polar Journal d/d March 2025

In March 2025, a Spanish scientific expedition announced discovery of “large scale” methane CH4 plumes erupting from the ocean floor off the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula.  “Methane has a high climate impact, which is 20 to 40 times higher than that of carbon dioxide. If large quantities of the gas were released, this could contribute significantly to global warming – to an extent not yet taken into account by climate models,” Ibid. One member of the expedition said: “It could be an environmental bomb for the climate.”

As for the above-mentioned scientists, the Hektoria Incident is most likely not a complete surprise other than the surprising rapidity of collapse, which concerns polar scientists a lot. In fact, it follows in the footsteps of the warnings they’ve issued over past years.

Significant Terrestrial Glacier Meltdown Underway

But the dangers of unanticipated sea level rise may be even worse yet. Far beyond Antarctica, a massive worldwide terrestrial glacial meltdown is underway that also directly impacts sea level rise, a threat not included in most analyses of potential sea level rise.

A 20-year study by 35 international teams of worldwide terrestrial glacier meltdown published in Nature (February 2025 issue) claims terrestrial glacier loss is “greater than Greenland and Antarctica.” The study discovered “staggering volumes of ice loss,” e.g., 273B tons ice loss per year over a 20-year study. Of concern, momentum is accelerating. For example, the first half of the study, or 10-years, registered 231B tons per year. The second half registered 314B tons/year or an increase of nearly 40% acceleration. The study identifies future risks as “entire countries erased” via sea levels rising much higher/faster and GLOFs (glacial lake outbursts floods). (World’s Glaciers Melting Faster Than Ever Recorded, BBC d/d Feb. 19, 2025)

There are already examples of erasure of communities, for example, on May 28, 2025 the Swiss village of Blatten was buried by ice and mud following collapse of the Birch Glacier. This is the impact of GLOF. And a GLOF June 3, 2025, in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan completely destroyed homes in six villages.

The Third Pole Hotspot

Of special concern, according to a UN study, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods: A Growing Climate Threat: The Third Pole is the world hotspot for GLOF risks. “The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, comprising the mountains of Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, contains the largest concentration of snow and glaciers outside the Polar regions and is therefore called the ‘Third Pole’. This region is a global hotspot for GLOF risks. Between the mountains themselves and the valleys downstream, around two billion people are exposed to these risks.”

Therefore, it is not at all surprising that both China and India are taking a diametrically opposite approach to the United States on global warming, fighting it, embracing renewables. When GLOFs intensify, one has to wonder whether China and India will demand a scientific-based explanation from the United States regarding its careless overarching promotion of fossil fuels and destruction of climate science/renewables. Oops! That may not be possible as the U.S.is ditching environmental science, so it may not have the data base still available to provide a science-based answer.

Ever since the first major scientific study (early 1990s) officially connecting the dots of fossil fuel emissions to global warming, it seems as if scientific warnings have been echoing in an enormous vast empty chamber, silently haunting the future. (Of historical note: Eunice Newton Foote first discovered the CO2 connection to global warming in 1856) Now, it has been three decades that nations of the world have mostly ignored scientists’ warnings. As of today, those echoes 0f the past are becoming real by coming home to roost, and it’s not a pretty picture; it’s much worse than the all of warnings of the past 30 years.

Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.