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Saturday, November 29, 2025

Ezra Klein Needs to Look More Closely at His Housing Chart



 November 26, 2025

Photo by Tyler Fulk

Ezra Klein had a classic column in the New York Times today where he advertises in his title, “America’s Housing Crisis, in One Chart.” The chart he highlights — new housing units per capita — is informative, but not quite in the way he says.

The chart shows the cyclical ups and downs in the housing market and then a massive plunge in construction following the collapse of the housing bubble in 2007-2008. Construction falls to one-third the long period average by 2010. It gradually creeped up so that it was 75 percent of the long period average by the pandemic. It rose somewhat further after the start of the pandemic, fueled by low interest rates and increased demand.

Klein looks at his chart and sees massive underbuilding of housing which he attributes primarily to excessive government restrictions on building, such as zoning and outdated safety requirements. I look at his chart and see the lasting devastation to the housing market that resulted from letting a bubble grow unchecked in the first decade of this century.

Asset Bubbles Are Bad News

While some of us were trying to warn of the risks of the bubble; the big names in economics (e.g., Alan Greenspan and Larry Summers) were singing the praises of innovative financing and the resulting increase in homeownership. When the bubble burst, not only did we get a financial crisis and the worst recession since the Great Depression; we also got long-lasting damage to the housing market that is still being felt today in the form of higher house sale prices and rents.

The reason for highlighting the impact of the bubble and its bursting, rather than the problems cited by Klein, is we need to have a sense of relative importance. Restrictive zoning is definitely a problem, and we should look at regulatory constraints, especially on manufactured housing, that may needlessly limit supply and push up prices.

But we had restrictive zoning and needless regulations before 2008 and still managed to build plenty of housing. That suggests that these are not the main obstacles to more construction.

The Collapsed Bubble Explains the Housing Construction Shortfall

In fact, if we look at Klein’s chart, it seems that most of the shortfall in housing, which he and others put at between 2-5 million units, was the result of the plunge in construction immediately after the collapse. Using 1.5 million units a year as a target for balancing the market (people are welcome to use a higher or lower one), we fell 6.4 million units short of needed construction levels in the decade from 2008-2017.

Construction has continued to climb upward in subsequent years so that in 2024 we were at 1.6 million completed units, somewhat above the 1.5 million target level used above. Construction will fall this year and next, as the rise in interest rates slowed starts, which will mean fewer completions in 2026.

This history doesn’t change the fact that housing costs too much and we need more construction, but it suggests that the problems may not be as deeply entrenched as Klein’s analysis implies. Rents and house sale prices were just moderately outpacing inflation until the pandemic.

When COVID-19 hit, the pandemic relief packages put money in people’s pockets; at the same time, the opportunity to work remotely expanded enormously. This both meant that people were saving money on commuting costs — which they could spend on housing — and that they needed more room at home to accommodate an office.

Those factors, together with low interest rates, led to a buying boom in 2021-22, and a surge in house sale prices. The Case-Shiller house price index rose by more than 50 percent in the five years from February 2020 to February 2025. Rents also surged, but not quite as dramatically.

Price and Rents Are Now Falling in Real Terms

But this was a one-time effect. With the number of people working remotely having stabilized, there is no longer a big surge in demand. The weakening economy also helps on this one. House sale prices have actually taken a modest downward turn since February, falling by almost 1.0 percent as of August. That translates into a 2.5 percent real decline, adjusting for inflation. It is likely this decline will continue and perhaps accelerate somewhat. (I am not anticipating the sort of collapse we saw in the 2008-2010 period, since homeowners are not heavily leveraged and in need of selling.)

There is also evidence that rents are falling, certainly in real terms and possibly also in nominal terms. The rent indexes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have a serious lag, reflecting long-term leases, but indexes that measure rents on units that come on the market are showing flat or declining prices. This is also the case with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ New Tenant Rent Index, which uses the CPI methodology, but only on units that come on the market.

This means that the problem of high housing costs may be correcting itself, but it would be good to hasten this process. Telling people that they have to wait three or four years for an apartment or house to become affordable is not a good story and certainly not good politics.

Reviewing safety regulations are definitely a good place to start. I’m less convinced on zoning. As much as it would be desirable to have denser housing in many areas, the politics on zoning are difficult, as Klein acknowledges.

The story also is rarely unambiguous. I am sure I will never be able to afford to live in San Francisco, but I still think that when I visit the city it is really neat to walk through neighborhoods filled with houses and small apartment buildings, constructed in the early part of the last century.

This is not just a personal preference. San Francisco has a huge tourism industry, as does New York and Paris, and many other cities that have preserved a large portion of their past. It would be wrong to dismiss this preservation as simply selfish NIMBYism.

So, I would encourage efforts to reform zoning with the caution not to expect too much from them. (I will say that my friend Jared Bernstein’s proposal for a rent subsidy for high-cost cities taking steps to increase construction, which is endorsed by Klein, is almost certainly a political non-starter. It would imply transferring money from relatively poor red areas to relatively wealthy blue areas.)

Other Schemes

I would also throw in a few other ideas that could provide some modest short-term help. A progressive property tax that would, for example, have a higher marginal tax rate on homes that sell for more than twice the median in an area, would provide incentive for rich people to take up less space. It also has the advantage that assessed valuations are already on the books, so it requires no new administrative structure.

The same is true for vacant property taxes. This would provide disincentive for leaving units vacant. San Francisco and some other cities have already tried this policy. Even if this tax just leads many property owners to lie, it still raises the costs for them to have a vacant unit.

Incentives for converting office space to residential are also a good policy. Some office buildings are less well-suited for conversion than others. This means we want offices to move from the places that are easy to convert to the ones that are difficult. Government can help here.

And moderate rent control can be useful, especially as a short-term solution. There is also evidence that increased concentration in the construction industry following the collapse of the housing bubble has reduced building. This suggests that anti-trust policy may have a role to play in bringing down housing costs.

But the main point here is that the major shortage of housing the country faces now is not the result of zoning or regulatory obstacles but rather an overreaction to a collapsed bubble. Just as investors can be irrationally exuberant in driving a bubble, they also can be irrationally pessimistic in the wake of a collapse. It also didn’t help that the weak labor market coming out of the Great Recession meant that tens of millions of people didn’t have the regular income they needed to secure a mortgage. Also, millions had their credit ruined by a foreclosure after the crash.

All of this should just remind us that asset bubbles are not fun, at least not after they burst. We should remember this when we hear people singing the praises of AI.

Dean Baker is the senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC. 

Tuesday, November 04, 2025

FE

China’s massive African mine threatens to upend iron ore market

The Simandou mountains are home to the world’s largest known untapped deposit of high-grade iron ore. (Image courtesy of Winning Consortium Simandou.)

In April 1998, a young geologist and his team set out from the village of Moribadou and trekked for six hours through the Guinea Highlands, a densely forested plateau that spreads across four countries in West Africa. “It was extremely difficult,” said Sidiki Koné. “In front was forest. It was forest to the left and forest to the right. Behind it was the same thing. And I said ‘how is this work possible?’”

Koné was mapping and drilling for his employer Rio Tinto Group, one of the largest mining companies. It had recently confirmed the presence of vast quantities of iron ore — the raw material for manufacturing steel. The Simandou deposit, buried below one of the world’s most biologically rich ecosystems, was first explored in the 1950s when Guinea was still a French colony. It would turn out to be one of the biggest on the planet.

The remoteness of the iron-rich mountains that daunted Koné — combined with military coups, corruption scandals and corporate intrigue — helped keep Simandou’s valuable trove in the ground for almost three decades. Yet, a brand-new railway last month began carrying ore to a purpose-built port, from where it will be dispatched to China’s steelmaking furnaces some time before the end of this year.

The scale of Simandou is staggering. It’s the world’s largest untapped iron ore deposit, with estimated reserves of at least 3 billion tons. Rio’s plan involves blasting ore — with an iron content among the highest on Earth — from an 8-kilometer (5-mile) long sliver of mountain ridge, before moving to a second site once the first is depleted. At $23 billion, it’s Africa’s biggest ever mining project and could make Guinea the continent’s No. 2 exporter of minerals and metals by value.

And it’s a moment that has the iron ore market holding its collective breath. The size and richness of the deposit means the start up at Simandou threatens to further tilt the power dynamics in a market already facing an uncertain demand future, and at a time when the top buyer, China, is pushing for greater influence over the world’s most-traded commodity after oil. For years, global iron ore production has been dominated by a small handful of companies: Rio itself, alongside larger rival BHP Group and Brazil’s Vale SA.

Despite once holding the rights to the whole of the greater Simandou deposit, Rio now has just a quarter share and is the West’s only representation. Today, Chinese firms own most of the project. Even Rio’s biggest shareholder is its Chinese joint-venture partner at Simandou, Aluminum Corp. of China.

The flood of rich new supplies will give Beijing more leverage to control iron ore prices and curb its dependence on foreign mining behemoths. It will help to turn a weak link in Beijing’s supply chain into strategic strength, building on China’s dominance in mining and refining African resources from copper to cobalt and lithium.

Even before the first shipment leaves West Africa, market sentiment toward iron ore — the mining industry’s biggest earner — has turned bearish.

“Never before has China held this level of pricing power over the seaborne iron ore trade,” said Tom Price, head of commodities strategy at Panmure Liberum. “Expect it to start calling the shots here.”

This is the story of how Simandou finally became a reality and what it means for the companies behind it, the future prosperity of Guinea and the $300 billion iron ore market.

Takeover defense

When Bloomberg visited the mine belonging to Rio’s joint-venture toward the end of the rainy season in September, the site resembled an out-of-season ski run, as contractors carved out the route for a 6.6-kilometer conveyor belt that will transport ore down from the top of the mountain.

Drawing on projects from President Xi Jinping’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative, everything from workers’ accommodation to ship loaders and rail sleepers have been installed at a breakneck pace using designs that have been fabricated dozens of times elsewhere. On the outskirts of the mine, executive Chris Aitchison pointed to a railway bridge that forms part of a 70-kilometer spur linking the production area to the main rail line. The structure — 307 meters (1,007 feet) long and 28 meters high — was erected in little over a month. The reason: it’s a carbon copy of bridges used on the high-speed rail from Beijing to Shanghai.

“China has built this repertoire you don’t get in the West,” said Aitchison, who since 2022 has headed Simfer, the consortium between Rio and Chinalco that’s developing one half of the Simandou deposit. “It’s where we see the benefits.”

Frozen in limbo

Rio has changed its chief executive officer seven times since Koné began his field studies. For the first decade after his trek through the forest, Simandou’s transformation remained a pipe dream — exploration continued on the deposits laid down almost 3 billion years ago, but it stayed an obscure outpost in Rio’s portfolio.

That changed in 2007, when BHP made a $78 billion hostile bid for Rio. With its back against the wall, the smaller company put Simandou at the heart of its takeover defense, trumpeting its riches as evidence that BHP’s offer undervalued the company. Rio likened Simandou’s potential to the Pilbara, the region of Western Australia that’s home to the world’s biggest iron ore mines.

“The strategic importance of Simandou for Rio Tinto cannot be overstated, given the size and quality of the deposit and the market opportunity, but its importance to the people of Guinea is even more profound,” then-CEO Tom Albanese said in February 2008.

In the end, the global financial crisis came to the miner’s rescue, but its asset in West Africa was firmly on the map. Guinea wanted to know why Rio was sitting on such a game-changing resource.

The Simandou deposit has an iron content that averages above 65%, making it one of the highest and most prized grades in the world.

As pressure mounted on the miner, the country’s president Lansana Conté stripped the firm of half the project in late-2008, before transferring it to diamond billionaire Beny Steinmetz. Weeks later, Conté passed away. Steinmetz’s BSGR quickly sold 50% of its Guinean assets to Vale for $2.5 billion.

The rapid-fire chain of events would leave Simandou stuck in limbo for another decade. Guinea was run by a military junta until 2010, when Alpha Condé was elected president with promises to revamp and clean up of the mining industry. Acting on advice from billionaire hedge fund manager George Soros and former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, the government produced a lurid dossier of alleged corruption that led Condé to revoke BSGR and Vale’s rights to Simandou in 2014. Seven years later, a Swiss court convicted Steinmetz of bribing public officials in Guinea, and he’s subsequently lost appeals. Vale has said it was a victim of a fraud perpetrated by BSGR.

And Rio’s involvement was also hanging by a thread. Incoming chief executive officer Jean-Sébastien Jacques inherited a mess in mid-2016: the company fired two executives over a $10.5 million payment to a French consultant on the project and reported itself to regulators. Rio even tried to sell its interest in Simandou to its partner, Chinalco, but failed to close the deal.

Chinese backing

The turning point for the project came in late 2019, when a consortium of Chinese and Singaporean companies was awarded the rights to develop the two blocks previously held by the BSGR-Vale joint-venture.

Winning Consortium Simandou already had a history in Guinea: one of its sister companies had built bauxite mines and was constructing a railway to a port, forming a key link in a production boom that saw the country become the world’s top supplier of the ore used to make alumina, the primary feedstock for aluminum.

At Simandou, the distance and terrain separating the ore body from the coast had long been the principle obstacle — and WCS wasn’t wasting any time. The consortium almost immediately began moving forward with plans for a rail corridor to get the iron ore 600 kilometers across the thickly forested countryside, and a new port complex capable of handling 120 million tons a year.

At this point, Rio Tinto — the world’s second-largest mining company and the project’s original owner — looked like it might be relegated to the position of a bystander.

The huge sums involved in pulling the trigger on Simandou were daunting to a company that was trying to prove to investors it could be prudent following a string of disastrous deals.

Still, the Guinean government was adamant it wanted to keep the Western investor in its key national asset, and was encouraged in its efforts by lobbying from the US embassy, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified discussing a private issue.

For Rio, momentum shifted when Bold Baatar — the Mongolian former banker put in charge of Simandou — saw the infrastructure already built in Guinea by Sun Xiushun, the China-born Singaporean entrepreneur who runs WCS.

“The moment it became clear that was the way to go was the trip I took with Sun to see his railway network in bauxite in the north,” Baatar recalled. “I saw the Chinese engineering competencies of how they can get it done.”

In July 2022, WCS and Rio formed a partnership to finance and build the infrastructure together. Under Condé’s successor General Mamadi Doumbouya, Guinea got a 15% “free-carry” stake in the new umbrella entity, as it has in both mines. The deal needed WCS and Rio to overcome their reservations about working with each other, according to Djiba Diakite, minister director of the cabinet of the presidency. “It’s companies that don’t have the same business models, that don’t have the same corporate culture,” Diakite said in an interview.

The final hurdle had been cleared.

Pilbara killer

The first cargo is scheduled to start loading this month and sail from Guinea around the end of the year, when a Newcastlemax bulker will depart with about 200,000 tons of ore mined by both consortiums. Rio, which will take another year to complete its mine and port, plans to ramp up output to 60 million tons a year over 30 months, while WCS hasn’t disclosed its timeline to reach the same level. The combined volume is equivalent to about 5% of global production in 2024.

For Rio’s peers, it’s finally time to test fears that have stalked the industry for years.

Dubbed the “Pilbara Killer” for its potential impact on Western Australia’s iron ore mines, the arrival of Simandou couldn’t come at a worse time. For the last two decades, China’s demand for iron ore has been insatiable, feeding mills that churn out half the world’s steel.

Yet that output has almost certainly peaked.

Now Simandou strengthens China’s ability to break the power of miners like BHP, Vale and even Rio itself.

State-run iron ore trader, China Mineral Resources Group Co., has become the world’s biggest buyer of the material in just three years, overseeing purchases for most state-owned steelmakers. In September, CMRG escalated a dispute with BHP by sending a directive to steel mills to stop buying US dollar denominated seaborne cargoes of iron ore from the miner, which has so far refused to match the discounts offered by its rivals.

Last year, state-owned China Baowu Steel Group Ltd., the world’s biggest steelmaker and likely the project’s top customer, also acquired the largest shareholding in WCS. Baowu and WCS declined meetings in Guinea’s capital, Conakry, to discuss the project, with both citing constraints imposed by the construction schedule.

Internal forecasts at some of the biggest miners expect iron ore to slump to $85 a ton in the coming three years, as Simandou cranks up to full output over the next two and a half years. Even the more bullish predictions see the ore struggling to stay at current levels above $100, which is less than half of its price at 2021’s peak.

On Monday, Baowu’s listed unit highlighted the ongoing weakness in China’s steel demand by scaling back its future production goals. The lowering of its target came amid a prolonged slump in the domestic property sector and crackdown on industrial overcapacity.

Economic catalyst

Even the prospect of lower prices hasn’t dimmed Guinea’s enthusiasm for the project: advertisements for “Simandou 2040,” Doumbouya’s national development roadmap, adorn bridges and billboards around Conakry. The government has hired KPMG and Rothschild & Co to advise on how to invest iron ore revenues and secure a first sovereign credit rating for one of the poorest nations on Earth.

If, as widely expected, Doumbouya stands in December in Guinea’s first presidential elections since he ousted Condé, he will campaign on being the leader who brought Simandou to life. He’d previously promised not to run, and in the lead up, his junta has suspended the two major opposition parties amid a crackdown against civil society.

“We will use the project as a catalyst,” said Diakite, who also heads the government’s Simandou Strategic Committee. “The goal for us is not to take the money and spend it. It’s to take the money, a good part of it, to develop the other sectors of our country which aren’t the mining sector.”

His aspiration is for iron ore to do for Guinea what fossil fuels have done for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — so that the country can avoid the resource curse that’s crippled other African countries. Rio’s venture and WCS are also required to finish a study on building a steel plant in Guinea two years after operations start, he said.

The impact could be enormous on Guinea following decades of political violence, coup d’etats, ebola outbreaks and endemic poverty. Most of the local workforce at Simandou cannot read or write. The International Monetary Fund estimates the mines will increase the country’s gross domestic product by more than a quarter by the start of next decade.

But there have been costs. The project encroaches on one of the most biologically diverse ecosystems on the planet, in a country with the largest remaining habitat of the critically endangered West African chimpanzee. It will impact at least 450 villages, while the extraction process creates heavy metal and acid runoff. Workers have also died while building the mines, port and railway.

Pairs of giant locomotives — more than 140 have been ordered from America’s Wabtec Corp. — will haul 100 wagons containing about 8,000 tons of ore across more than 300 bridges on the 30-hour journey to the port. Smaller boats will transport the ore to moored cape-size vessels that will take about 48 hours to load. Once the mines hit capacity in 2028, a full ship will leave every day.

The sheer scale of industrial activity stretching from the mines to the port couldn’t be further removed from the two-tent operation Koné began with in the late-1990s. Even Baatar, now Rio’s chief commercial officer, is awed.

“I don’t think there are many mining executives that have anything like this through their life,” said Baatar. “I mean, it’s the largest mining project in the world.”

(By Thomas Biesheuvel and William Clowes)

 

China aims to revive steelmaking without ordering cuts to supply

Stock Image.

China is taking a measured approach to fixing its steel industry, improving the outlook for high-end companies but steering clear of ordering the cuts needed to decisively shrink supply.

The readout of China’s upcoming five-year plan was heavy on pledges to boost consumption and innovation in the economy. The government’s anti-involution campaign — targeting the overcapacity and ruinous competition that’s been a feature of the steel sector among others — drew perhaps less emphasis than expected.

Instead, Beijing seems to have committed to a more gradual tightening of the screws on steelmakers that would play out over years rather than months. The industry ministry in October proposed tougher capacity rules, so that eliminating existing operations would have to more than offset plans to add new facilities, at a ratio of 1.5 to 1. Swaps that involve upgrades to plants would get better terms. Some key hubs wouldn’t be allowed to add any capacity at all.

Putting limits on expansion, rather than forcing underperforming operations to shutter, won’t help most of the mills struggling with China’s prolonged property crash. But promoting value-added steel over commoditized items like construction rebar suggests firms that are able to specialize will benefit.

“The future of the industry is looking brighter for the top echelon of producers,” said Tomas Gutierrez, an analyst at Kallanish Commodities Ltd. “They could be supported in boosting quality and innovation, in line with China’s broader trend to support the upscaling of productive capacity in the wider economy.”

China could still announce numerical targets on output or capacity when policymakers gather at the annual National People’s Congress in March. Indeed, the punchy rhetoric at the last meeting sparked speculation that Beijing would demand outright cuts to address the overproduction crippling the industry.

That didn’t happen, leaving mills to adjust output based on demand — not great, at least domestically — and margins — surprisingly good due to lower raw material costs. The upshot of the tussle is that annual production has a pretty good chance of sinking below 1 billion tons for the first time in six years.

Whatever the intentions for supply, it’s demand that’s likely to be more influential in shaping the industry’s fortunes. The government’s five-year plan does mention a batch of major construction projects that could help.

Otherwise, steel exports have been a notable bright spot for Chinese mills, but it’s not clear whether that can last as the world tilts increasingly toward protectionism. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts an 8% decline next year, albeit to the second-highest net volume on record, according to a recent note from the bank.

Moreover, a rising proportion of the steel sold overseas doesn’t qualify as the high-end, finished product favored by the government, suggesting room for improvement when it comes to upgrading the industry.

“If you look at what China’s been exporting this year, the growth has come from semi-finished steel like billets,” said Macquarie Group Ltd. analyst Florence Sun.


Saturday, October 25, 2025

 Dear Didi, It’s Not Night That Endangers Women


Priyanka Ishwari 



Most women are assaulted within their homes by people they know, so why curse the darkness?


West Bengal Chief Minister Mamta Banerjee's remark on the Durgapur gangrape case has caused much uproar offline and online. The outrage is justified and very much valid. It's 2025 and women have had it with all the moral policing and the victim blaming.

But hand to heart, while Banerjee, who has since claimed that her statement was distorted, was wrong to question why the survivor was out late at night, but ask any woman, the nature of the remarks are unfortunately not too unfamiliar. 

Our parents discourage us from venturing outside at night, our partners need us to share our live location while taking a cab in the dark, our girlfriends would have us crash at their place rather than travel at night, we turn down jobs because we may have to work night shifts. You get the drift. 

It won't be wrong to say that most Indians do not think it is safe for women to step outside late in the dark. Most women do not think they are safe when they are out late at night. And like it or not, if something does happen to a woman, among things like the perpetrator, the location of the incident, one thing that concerns us is the timing of the incident. 

It is not just our uncles or aunts, or other boomer relatives who believe that women should not be out at night if they want to avoid untoward incidents, much of the younger generation also believe that women are safer in the day. 

As someone who worked two years of her post-graduate life to get universities in Delhi to rollback discriminatory rules and regulations, I spent most of my time convincing other female students that having a 8 p.m curfew time to enter the hostel was no way of ensuring women’s safety. Several women, well above the age of 18, were convinced that to prevent themselves from sexual harassment and assaults, it was important to step outside only in the comfort of sunlight. 

Conversations around safety, our social conditioning have taught us that it is in the comfort of gloomy darkness that dangerous strangers find the best opportunities to assault women. However, the reality is way more revolting.

In nearly 97.5 cases of rape, the offender was known to the survivor, highlights the 2023 National Crime Records Bureau report. In six Indian states, the offender is known to the survivor in all the cases. This data is not an anomaly to surface exclusively in the latest figures. Take official crime data for the past 10 years, and the percentage of offenders known to survivors in rape cases is at least 93%. 

Unfortunately, an Indian woman is more likely to be sexually assaulted by a co-worker, employer, live-in partner, boyfriend than a stranger in the dead of the night. 

Read Also: Does Indian Society Truly Believe in ‘Beti Bachao’?

In fact, if the latest findings of the National Family Health Survey were taken into account, the proportion of women who reported being sexually assaulted by a stranger was just 0.4. (The NFHS figures – recorded over five years periodically – on sexual violence are considered more exhaustive as they also include instances which are not recorded by the police.)

Fear mongering about after sunset hours aside, to suggest that women's mobility is what needs to be kept in check for their safety should be considered blasphemous in a country where most women barely have any agency on their mobility to begin with.

Consider this, according to the NFHS, only in 10% cases, it is the wife who mainly gets to make decisions about visiting her own family or relatives. Nearly 20% of Indian men insist on knowing the whereabouts of their wives at all times, and a similar percentage of men also do not permit their wives to meet female friends.

At least 51.6% of women aged between 15 to 49 years in India are not allowed to step outside their village or community area alone. There is little difference on this between urban areas (46% not allowed) and rural regions (52%).

This lack of agency over their mobility is not only detrimental to women's emotional wellbeing, academic growth and career development, it also puts the physical health of a significant portion of females at risk. Over 13.5% women in India do not even get permission to go out for medical treatment, finds the NFHS.

Exercising one's own will also comes at a great cost for women. According to NFHS, At least 14.8% of Indian men think that it is okay to hit or beat up their wives if the latter goes out without informing their husbands. Once again, urban India (13.1%) or rural India (15.7%) report similar trends.

Alarmingly, over 19% of women also believe that a man is justified in hitting his wife if she steps outside the house without letting him know, highlighting how it is not just the men's attitude alone that needs to be changed for women to be able to move more freely. 

And even if we believe that the ‘outside’ is a more dangerous space and where to go and when to go are variables that if controlled cautiously can keep women safe, how do we keep them safe inside their homes? If we need to protect women from strangers lurking in the night, do we not need to protect them from their husbands who don't mind using force against their spouse over a meal they do not like?

At least 44.2% of men think they are justified to hit their spouse over at least one reason or the other. The reason for violence you ask? Wife argues with husband; Wife doesn't cook properly; Wife refuses to have sex with husband; Wife disrespects in-laws among other justifications.

In the safety of their own homes, over 31% of married women have been physically or sexually assaulted, points out the NFHS. It's 2025, and still only 82% of Indian women believe they can say no to their husbands for sex. Over 12% of men still believe it is their right to use force to have sex if the wife refuses. 

But we are yet to hear any public concern from a politician, male or female, over domestic violence or marital rape. 

However, shifting the onus on safety away from societal norms, patriarchal attitudes, inadequate infrastructure, ineffective law and order mechanisms, popular culture that thrives on objectifying the female body and blaming free movement of women is how many Indians respond to sexual violence. 

Not just private individuals, public institutions also practice policing women through various rules and regulations. Be it central universities like the Delhi University in the Capital, or a state university in Himachal Pradesh or private college in Kerala, most places of higher education in India still do not allow female students to leave the hostel premises after a certain time. In some cases, this curfew can be as early as 4 pm. 

Read Also: Bengal: Girls Take Charge of Own Safety in Jangal Mahal

It was only in the past decade that several states, including Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Haryana, Maharashtra, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and others, allowed women to work night shifts in factories and several other commercial enterprises. States like Jharkhand and Odisha removed such prohibitions only this year.

All this is not to imply that Indian women are safer at night than the day or will not get assaulted outside their homes. Unfortunately, the road to women’s safety is a long one. However, it also doesn't have to be rocky. 

Over the years, women's campaigns like Pinjratod and scholars like TISS professor Shilpa Phadke have repeatedly asserted that good infrastructure can go a long way in making women more safe in public places. Street lighting, cheap and accessible public transport, adequate public toilets, and sensitive police personnel can make public places safer and inclusive and thereby also increase female participation in education and employment.

Rather than focusing on why a woman was out at night or who she was with, something politicians have earlier too evoked such a response to sexual violence. However, they could make a hell lot of difference by taking care of the public's basic needs -- working street lamps, cheaper bus and Metro services, more patrol cars, quicker police response. Is that too much to ask?

The writer is a Delhi-based independent researcher. The views are personal.



Envisioning a law for the Indian woman: A Recollection


Indira Jaising 



For the Indian woman, the family - the ‘man’s castle’ - has never been a safe harbour, never safe from violence.

Many years ago when i became a lawyerI knew my work would be dedicated to justice for women .This led me to represent women at the workplace but also equally importantly within the family .  

Women who were thrown out of the matrimonial home, women who were dependent homemakers, who created safe harbours in their homes but received no recognition for their labour, women who were compelled to have sex with their husbands and women deprived of custody to their children came to me asking the question: “What can I do to be able to live in a violence free home ?”

For a long time, I had no answer to this question except to say: “In all such situations, it was the men seeking a divorce and the women resisting it.” They resisted it not necessarily because they wanted to stay in the marriage, but because they knew that once divorced, they would be thrown out with empty hands. The stigma of being a divorced woman meant civil death. 

It was then that I realised that “family law”, as a legal category,  did not quite fit, or address, the issues at hand. The family was not necessarily a safe harbour for women. It was always regarded as a “man’s castle”. I also realised that different laws functioned in silos and there was no overarching norm to guide decision makers in how to deal with the situation, how to do justice . It was the vision of the Constitution of India and its embodiment of the rule of law with guaranteed rights that was missing from consideration in conflict situations and in decision making. In fact one judge of the Delhi High Court said that introducing constitutional law into family law was like introducing “a bull in a China shop”. He failed to realise that the bull was already there. Violence was the governing norm of the family, a privilege of the male. 

It was the bull that had to be taken out of the China shop.

The family was not necessarily a safe harbour for women. It was always regarded as a “man’s castle”.

The inspiration

Years of working with women facing domestic violence in intimate relationships had informed me that what women wanted was freedom from violence, not an end to the relationship.  They wanted a legal forum in which they could negotiate a violence-free space in their domestic spaces, in their shared households. They wanted a violence  free future. It was this gap in the law that made me imagine the possibility of a law such as the Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act, 2005.

In 1984, the Indian Penal Code was already amended to introduce  Section 498A that made cruelty by a husband against his wife an offence.  This was the first recognition of the fact that a man’s home was not his castle and it could be invaded by the law to prevent cruelty.

No doubt, it had several limitations: the cruelty, for instance, had to be such that it drove a woman to commit suicide. This approach has informed courts in ignoring violence against women in the matrimonial home in all forms except when they are on the verge of death. Worse, the law has been invoked only after the woman is dead. Elsewhere I have described this approach as “concern for the dead, condemnation for the living “ 

Cultural concepts of who is a perfect wife — one who follows the customs of karvaa chauth, never complains, works as a household slave with her labour invisibilised —  continued to inspire decision making. 

Beyond the final decision sending her husband to prison, criminal law offered her nothing . 

Thinking a civil solutio

I  saw the solution as being a civil law which addressed the felt needs of a woman. Women needed a violence-free home, equality and dignity. All this and more could be delivered by a civil law, one which addressed the woman and her needs while she was still alive and one which could prevent the violence .

For women, this question was particularly important since the only remedy available to them for stopping violence against them in a marriage was to file for divorce. The law had, therefore, to be a gendered law, available to be accessed by women in intimate relationships. 

What is violence if not a legal injury caused to a person ? Why should it have no civil remedy?  

For centuries we have been taught that there can be no right  without a remedy.  Section 9 of the Code of Civil Procedure appears to have been enacted to assure the people of the country that there is indeed a remedy for a legal wrong  

This was the inspiration for drafting the Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act as a civil law . It was the realization that while we have a simple remedy for violence against women, a preventive and a curative remedy, in order to stop violence, the challenge was essentially to define what is violence. 

Any form of abuse, including physical, emotional, sexual, financial, or any denial of a right to which a person is entitled, is a civil wrong for which a civil remedy can be provided.

This country lacked a definition of what is violence despite being founded on the principle of non violence. It is often forgotten that domestic violence is  both a civil wrong as well as a criminal wrong. Any form of abuse, including physical, emotional, sexual, financial, or any denial of a right to which a person is entitled, is a civil wrong for which a civil remedy can be provided.

Why domestic violence?

A few words about the choice of the word “domestic”.  This word was intended to  refer to intimate relationships. While violence is an ever-present phenomenon in our lives in the public domain and  increasingly so, violence in  intimate relationships is invisible and has a specificity of its own . It can be ignored or passed off as a peaceful circumstance in the matrimonial home .

There was no one to bear witness  to domestic abuse but abuse is still abuse and needed to be stopped.  The woman aggrieved is the only witness to abuse. It is only her word. And it was this desire to bring legitimacy to her word  that was the inspiration for the law. A woman's word has been muted  over centuries by  patriarchy. It's almost just as if there is a presumption that women lie. And more specifically, women  in intimate relationships lie. At the root of this presumption is the fear of the male partner of the woman, a fear which extends to knowing that at any point of time she can claim her right to dignity and to a claim on his financial assets. 

Building on experience gained with criminal laws 

The demand for non violence is amongst the most important demands that one human being can make upon another human being. This is how the law took shape in my mind. It began with talking to women who had faced violence in intimate relationships. Since 1984,  ending violence against women was very much on the agenda of the women's movement. It was, as I said earlier, also the year in which Section 498A was introduced into the Indian Penal Code. 

Back in 1984, organisations of women were set up all over the country to provide support services for women facing violence.  These groups were located  within civil society and in police stations to provide handholding to women facing domestic violence. The shame and stigma associated with reporting violence prevented women from seeking help. Once upon a time, personal problems were to be left confined to the closed box of marriage. The law had broken this muffling structure.

The gap in services was filled up by women's groups. Take for instance, an initiative by a team in Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai led by Anjali Dave through which a space was designated in police stations for qualified social workers. Whenever a woman approached the police alleging an offence of Section 498A, the police would divert them to this special unit who facilitated counselling, medical care or shelter care. Other groups all over the country had been set up to provide support services.  By the early 2000s, the volume of experience acquired was tremendous. 

Collectivising the campaign 

The Lawyers  Collective tapped into this  experience for drafting The Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act. There was a consensus of opinion that the law had to be a civil law. However, for ease of convenience, to bring the law closer to the community, and ease access, the implementation  of the law was placed in the hands of Magistrates.These courts are more easily accessible and more numerous so that they could be available within community limits. That apart, courts could also take the help of the police to implement their orders and also use criminal procedures for civil relief. 

Convincing the law makers 

The challenge was   to convince lawmakers and decision makers. We hit upon a plan of inviting high ranking members of the judiciary, including the sitting Chief Justice of India, to interact with members of civil society and women’s organizations. Those were the days when judges believed that they must live in ivory towers and had no need to interact with real people. Things have, no doubt, changed today with social media exposing us all to the perils of life and living . 

The strategy  of getting judges to interact with civil society had been tried and tested by the Lawyers  Collective on the issue of challenge to Section 377 of the IPC (which criminalised homosexuality) . The HIV unit of the Lawyers Collective had successfully invited judges from other jurisdictions, who were gay, to  interact with sitting judges in India, including those in the High Courts and the Supreme Court. It came as no surprise that with such interaction, bias against same sex relationships dissolved.  We had sitting judges tell us in conferences “these people are as normal as you and me.”  

That convinced them that to be gay was not a crime. It was moments like these which finally resulted in the decriminalisation of Section 377.

No woman initiates a case of domestic violence or of criminal action against her spouse or partner at the first such provocation. There is always hope things will change

The consensus achieved within the campaign  

Coming back to the issue of domestic violence, a  consensus was evolved between women's groups on critical issues such as the definition of domestic violence and the need for support services. Protection officers were visualised as “the eyes and ears of the Court”. It was as if the Court was reaching out to women rather than women coming to court with their grievances. The commissioners of the Court were expected to collect information which the woman herself could not. This was meant to be the  outreach program of the court. 

The Domestic Incident Report (‘DIR’) could be recorded either by protection officers or by service providers who were intended to be women's organizations. The DIR was visualised as the civil equivalent of an FIR. If nothing else, it provided an official record of the violence that women faced. 

No woman initiates a case of domestic violence or of criminal action against her spouse or partner at the first such provocation. There is always hope things will change. Litigation is undertaken after long deliberation - it is like the last straw which breaks a camel's back.  It is after exploring all forms of mediation and resolution. The DIR is simply a record of the violence reported by a woman and no more if she does not want  to trigger litigation, a record of the violence self-reported by the woman  lending credibility to her word in a court of law. 

These are the various ways in which we  attempted to democratise the law. 

The critical breakthroughs 

My experience of dealing with “family law” convinced me that we needed to break away from the use of words like the “matrimonial home “ and move to the more inclusive term, “ shared household “, a concept that expressed caring and sharing within a safe space. Moreover, by this time the women’s movement had come to the conclusion that natal violence against daughters also needed to be addressed. Hence all women in the shared household needed to be protected. 

By far the most important provision of the law is the right to reside in the shared household, a right made available to all women of all communities regardless of religion, from being forcibly evicted from the home. India has no established social security network for homeless women and often their security is only the natal family to which they seek to return. 

But not all natal families are welcoming and many believe that a daughter must only return dead from her husband’s home. Because a woman from a shared household could be thrown out of the shared household, there was a need for the due process of law. 

Interestingly, when the law was first introduced under Atal Behari Vajpayee’s National Democratic Alliance government and sought to be enacted, the critical provision on the right to shared household was dropped from the law’s draft. By the time the standing committee came back with a report noting that the provision was required to be kept, the NDA government was no longer in power. The law, with the provision intact, was finally brought into force under the United Progressive Alliance government in 2006.

Given that the protection was to all women residing in the shared household, it was logical to take the next step, namely to protect women in live-in relationships. Hence we introduced the concept of women living in “relationships in the nature of marriage” being protected in the home. 

This in my opinion is one of the most forward looking provisions of the law, given the pattern of relationships we see in India today, where women do not necessarily look for instant marriage and divorce is no longer seen as stigmatic to the extent that it was . The law took note of the prevalence of live-in relationships, and granted equal protection to women in such relationships. 

This provision has been interpreted by courts to mean it covers women in stable relationships where conjugality, caring and sharing defines the relationship regardless of whether there is a marriage ceremony or not. This latter factor is irrelevant to the non violent behaviour expected from a partner and this is what the law aims to do. 

A balance sheet of the law

Very few people may get a chance to see through a law from the drawing board all the way to where it stands twenty years later. I have been lucky to live through this process and it has been a satisfying one. We have come a long way from the understanding that a man’s home is his castle. If anything it is the castle of those who share a household and one that must be safe for all mothers, wives, daughters, and live-in partners. 

What the courts do with the law is beyond our control but perhaps to some extent, lawyers who do advocacy for women (some of whose voices you will hear in this series) could still exercise a say . But for those of us who were on this journey to justice for women it has been an exhilarating journey, a success story. 

Did we succeed in what we set out to do? 

What is the balance sheet of the functioning of the law 20 years after its enactment? 

A deeper analysis of the functioning of the Act is not the mandate of this introductory piece. However, it bears mentioning that the Lawyers Collective had, in October 2007, published a ‘Monitoring and Evaluation Report’ exactly one year after the coming into force of the Act. This exercise was kept up for five years and later dropped in the hope that it will be institutionalised. Sadly, it has not yet been institutionalised and the task continues to be shouldered by civil society in relation to several welfare legislations. Incidentally at the drafting stage, there was a clause on monitoring and evaluation which was dropped by the government. 

What is the balance sheet of the functioning of the law 20 years after its enactment? 

An answer to this question is difficult to provide at this stage. It would require extensive research, analysis and access to  court orders - from the Magistrates Courts all the way up to the appellate courts, the High Courts and the Supreme Court of India. While some of this information is accessible, not all of it is. Trends could vary from state to state, depending on the legal culture in those states.  

What is, however, clear is that women have embraced the law. accessed and used it. 

What were the gains, hits and misses that we can think of without a detailed analysis? 

Protection officers who were meant to be trained professional social workers and counsellors have never been appointed in any state in the country. Bureaucrats have been asked to double up to do this job as “additional charge”. The job is treated more as a record keeping job than a hand holding  job, that of a friend in need. Judges have not accepted them as an outreach arm of the judiciary, part of their infrastructure, or their own fellow travellers in a common cause. 

Service providers have grown from strength to strength. They have indeed influenced institutional change in the form of helping draft protocols by the Government of India, such as the Guidelines and Protocols on Medico-legal Care for Survivors/Victims of Sexual Violence, and Standard Operating Procedures for One Stop Centres, a resource centre for women affected by violence in public and private spaces. 

Judges have not understood that this is a civil law, not a criminal one even though it is  executed by Magistrates courts. This is evident from a recent judgment by Justice A.S. Oka of the Supreme Court  where he held that a proceeding under the DV Act can be quashed under Section 482, of the CrPC, a procedure only available to criminal proceedings 

But what of rights jurisprudence? 

There is hardly any doubt that this is the first law in the country which gives to a woman -  married or in a relationship similar to marriage (i.e. where conjugality is established), a stand alone right to reside in the shared household .

It is a notorious fact that often a man, despite being married without disclosing his marriage to another woman, purports to marry another contrary to the provisions of his personal laws. 

Such women were also intended to be protected by the expression “relationship in the nature of marriage”.  Unfortunately, this provision has been interpreted to mean that the man must be “free” to marry. Monogamy has been introduced into the meaning of the expression “ relationship in the nature of marriage”. The very purpose of distinguishing it from a marriage is lost. 

Despite the language of the law, women in relationships outside marriage are referred to as “keep” and “concubine” indicating that judges , predominantly male, have not lost their moral judgment over women in live-in relationships and bring their morality to bear on judging women. 

What we missed 

It has been pointed out that the Act leaves out of consideration natal violence. This is not true. Any woman can file a complaint against a male relative in a domestic relationship living in the same shared household, including a sister against a brother . There have been several cases of daughters filing cases against parents demanding educational expenses where they are denied. 

It is true that the law has not, in full measure, addressed the issue of same sex violence. This is because a conscious decision was taken that only a woman could file a case under this Act, not a man. There is no doubt that this is a limitation to this law and hopefully a time will come when this too will be dealt with. However, it needs recalling that there was a clear  consensus that the law must not be gender neutral. 

Surprisingly and thankfully, on the issue of shared household, the law, despite going through its ups and downs, did not fail. The Supreme Court has realised that it is one of the most fundamental rights guaranteed under this law. 

What judges lack is not just sensitization but the very discipline of the law which mandates them to honour the letter of the law.

I have often argued that women in this country are less protected than tenants (against eviction) in that they could be pushed out of the home any time without any redress. This, the law has stopped. There have been complaints that courts have tended to give alternate accommodation instead of restoring women to the shared household. This is true. 

To this I can only say that  remedies must be tailored to meet specific situations. While some women may welcome the alternative accommodation, others may not.

The absence of political will 

Very often I am told that the law is good but it is not “implemented”. To use words like “implementation “ in analysis is misplaced. I am also told that judges lack “sensitisation”. This is also misplaced. 

The function of the law is to mandate, to compel. What judges lack is not just sensitization but the very discipline of the law which mandates them to honour the letter of the law. It is the letter of the law which is subverted under some warped notion of diversion of justice into the pathways of faked and forced  togetherness, paying homage to the notion that life for a woman begins and ends with marriage, despite growing evidence to the contrary.  

Judges have at times sent women back to violent homes with the admonition to respect their ‘sindoor’  and sometimes found them dead in the matrimonial home. I, myself, have represented parents of daughters who were forced back to the matrimonial home only to be sent back dead to their parents. Judges suffer from the delusion that  every marriage is an ideal marriage and a failed marriage is better than no marriage . 

Looking at reality in the face is not part of our judicial culture. After all, we are told, everything is ‘maya’, illusion. These cultural norms and habits of mind need to change to  stop violence against women. Violence is a fact but it is equally a fact that women will no longer tolerate violence and demand equality before law and equal protection of laws. Is that asking for too much? To seek that an intimate partner treat a woman with dignity? 

Non-violence is the founding faith of this nation. Non-violence is written into the Preamble to the Constitution of India and non-violence must be the guiding creed of every judge in this country. 

Twenty years is a long time for a law  to be in existence. It requires a careful evaluation. An audit of the judiciary remains an unmet need of civil society at all levels - be it the Magistrates Court, the District Court, the High Court or the Supreme Court. Until that day comes, I must sign off here to say that I have been fortunate enough to see this Act through from the drawing board, to people's homes. Something few people have been able to see in one lifetime. And I am grateful for that chance.

Courtesy: The Leaflet