LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment

Sunday, December 17, 2023

Protestors return to Bolton to make feelings known about war in Gaza

Chris Jaffray
Sat, 16 December 2023

The protest took place in Bolton (Image: NQ)

Protesters supporting Palestine have made their feelings known about the war in Gaza at another protest in Bolton town centre.

The latest major conflict in the region broke out after Hamas raided southern Israel on October 7, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking about 240 hostages.

In response, the Israeli forces have killed more than 17,700 Palestinians in Gaza, about two-thirds of them women and children, according to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry.

Critics of Israel have argued its military actions have been disproportionate and too many civilians have died.

A number of protests have taken place in Bolton since the war began, and in the town centre this afternoon, Saturday, protestors gathered again outside Victoria Square calling for a ceasefire.

Flags and banners with messages stating "end the siege," "free Palestine," and "stop bombing Gaza" were on display.

There were also leaflets calling for a boycott of international drinks brand Coca-Cola due to its operation in the settlement of Atarot.

People chanted "in our thousands in our millions, we are all Palestinians".

Usman, one of the organisers, said: "This is the fourth one we have had in Bolton.

"I have also been to London every couple of weeks.

"I have been on the marches around 10 times.

"There are children dying. Somebody has got to speak up.

"The last couple of marches we have had 2,000 people.

"This was organised in the last three days but we have still got people coming down.

"We are demanding a ceasefire and we want arms to stop being sold."

Another man, who asked not to be named, said: "There are thousands of citizens in Gaza who have been killed by the Israel Defense Forces.

"That is why we are here to demand a ceasefire.

"Whatever rights Israelis have Palestinians should have the same rights."

This week, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Britain continues to consider a two-state solution as the “right outcome” to the Israel-Hamas war.

He repeated his call for a “sustainable ceasefire” that involves Hamas no longer firing rockets at Israel and freeing hostages in exchange for more aid into the Gaza Strip.

The Conservative Party leader said the conflict in the Middle East is “incredibly concerning” and that “far too many innocent people have lost their lives”.

He added: “We will continue to support calls for a sustainable ceasefire where hostages are released, more aid can get in, and the rockets, crucially, stop being fired from Hamas into Israel as well.”

The United Nations’ General Assembly on Tuesday voted overwhelmingly to demand a ceasefire in Gaza, a move that was objected to by the US and abstained on by the UK.

Gaza hospital in rubble after Israeli withdrawal

AFP
Sun, 17 December 2023

Palestinians take cover after an air strike near Gaza's Kamal Adwan hospital on November 22 (Mohammad AHMAD)

In what was once the courtyard of the Kamal Adwan hospital in the northern Gaza city of Beit Lahiya, Palestinians wade through the rubble, searching for corpses.

The sound of one of them sobbing breaks out while he wraps a body to prepare for burial.

Mahmud Assaf, 50, came to the hospital from Jabalia with a cart to recover two of his relatives' children who had been patients at the facility for 10 days.

"I found Hadi paralysed... lying on his back under the chairs. Everything was on top of him," he said, speaking about one of the children who appeared barely conscious and severely burned.

The Hamas-run health ministry reported on December 12 that the Israeli army stormed the Kamal Adwan hospital in Gaza City during a "siege" that lasted several days.

On Saturday, Israel's army said it "completed its activity in the area of the Kamal Adwan hospital", which it charged "had been used by Hamas as a command and control centre".

The army said it had found weapons and arrested around 80 Hamas members at the facility -- the last functioning government hospital in northern Gaza.

Assaf said he wanted to take away the children quickly now that the army had withdrawn, but was shocked by the "massive, indescribable destruction" he found at the hospital.

"Patients are everywhere. There is nothing left fit for life," he said.

"(The children have) cases of serious burns without having received anything to eat, drink, or treatment," he added.

The army said it had "questioned hospital workers" who had "confessed that weapons were hidden in incubators... that were supposed to be used to treat premature babies".

Hamas accused Israel of carrying out a "horrific massacre" at the hospital, claiming Israeli forces "fired at patient rooms", arrested staff, and destroyed tents of displaced people with bulldozers.

The courtyard in Kamal Adwan is full of the clearly visible tracks of Israeli tanks and bulldozers.

All health infrastructure in the Gaza Strip has been hard hit by aerial bombardments and ground operations carried out by the Israeli army in retaliation for the unprecedented October 7 attack by Hamas on Israeli territory.

The attack killed 1,139 people, mostly civilians, with Hamas militants taking about 250 hostages, of whom 105 have been released and several killed, according to the latest Israeli figures.

Vowing to eliminate Hamas, Israel has carried out a relentless bombardment of Gaza, alongside a ground invasion, that has killed more than 18,800 people, mostly women and children, according to the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

- 'Let them kill us all' -

Israel has accused Hamas of using hospitals -- which have special status under the laws of war -- to hide weapons and command centres, charges which the group denies.

The World Health Organisation said in a statement Sunday that it is "gravely concerned at the unfolding situation at Kamal Adwan Hospital and is gathering information urgently".

Outside the courtyard, Abu Mohammed, who came to look for his son, stood crying.

"They demolished the building. They killed the doctors. Even the doctors were not spared. They left nothing behind," he said.

"My son is here. I don't know how I will find him," Abu Mohammed said, pointing to the rubble.

"Where are the Arab countries? Where is Sisi?" referring to President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of neighbouring Egypt, a key mediator between the Israelis and Palestinians.

"We're fed up. They (Israelis) have been killing us since 1948 (the year of Israel's founding)... Let them kill us all so that we can rest instead of this torture."

srt-sy/srk/hkb

UK
Government to face court action over development of Rosebank oil field

Danny Halpin, PA Environment Correspondent
Sun, 17 December 2023

The offshore oil and gas regulator and the Government are facing legal action over the approval of the Rosebank oil field.

Campaign group Uplift claims the Energy Secretary failed to show how Rosebank – one of the largest untapped oil reserves in UK waters – aligns with the Government’s net-zero plan for 2050.

In a separate case, Greenpeace says the approval process did not consider the pollution that would come from burning the oil once produced and that the project itself would be too damaging for marine wildlife.

The Government said it “strongly rejects these claims” and will contest any challenge.

As the offshore regulator, the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) is responsible for reviewing applications to develop oil and gas in the North Sea and North Atlantic.

It recently granted consent for operators Equinor and Ithaca Energy to begin developing Rosebank and at the time said it was “taking net-zero considerations into account throughout the project’s lifecycle”.

Net zero, as defined by the Government, only includes the emissions generated by the machinery used to extract the oil, not those from when it is burnt after being sold.

The general argument is that if another country buys and burns oil from UK waters, those emissions should count as belonging to that country, as the UK would count emissions from imported diesel burnt in cars on British roads as its own.

Campaigners say the oil field will damage seabirds and other wildlife (Jane Barlow/PA)

Greenpeace argues that the Energy Secretary should have at least considered the “direct and indirect effects of the use of the extracted hydrocarbons on human health, the environment and climate change”, but that this was “deliberately” excluded from an environmental impact assessment.

It also said there is no evidence that Scottish ministers were consulted about Rosebank’s impact on an important seabird breeding site nearby and that drilling and laying subsea cables will destroy ocean habitats while oil contamination will affect whales.

Uplift said the NSTA gave no reasons for why it approved of Rosebank’s development and failed to explain how this was consistent with its duty in helping the Government meet the net zero target.

Tessa Khan, executive director of Uplift and herself a climate lawyer, said: “If Rosebank goes ahead, the UK will blow its own plans to stay within safe climate limits. It’s that simple.

“If the Government disagrees, it needs to provide evidence and prove it in court. The regulator also needs to be open about its reasons for approving a huge oil field when we’re facing a worsening climate crisis.”

The NSTA said it does not comment on ongoing legal issues.

A Government spokesperson said: “The UK is a world leader in reaching net zero – cutting emissions faster than any other major economy – and as the independent Climate Change Committee recognises, we will still need oil and gas as part of our energy mix.

“We will continue to back the UK’s oil and gas industry, which underpins our energy security, supports up to 200,000 jobs, and will provide around £50 billion in tax revenue over the next 5 years – helping fund our transition to net zero.”

Equinor, the primary owner of Rosebank, has said the field contains about 300 million barrels of oil and it is set to benefit from a £2.8 million tax break to extract it, environmental campaigners have calculated.

Globally, all current and planned fossil fuel projects would heat the Earth way beyond the internationally-agreed limit of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

World leaders hailed the agreement made at Cop28 in Dubai this week which recognised, after 30 years of climate negotiations, the need to stop burning fossil fuels as a means to stop climate change.

There is no agreement, however, on who should be the first to pull their investments in line with the International Energy Agency’s analysis that there is double what is needed this decade.

Democrats are gearing up to 'unravel' Republican supermajorities across the country in 2024

ABORTION GUN CONTROL VOTER RIGHTS
John L. Dorman
Sun, December 17, 2023

Democrats are working to make gains in the Wisconsin legislature in 2024.AP Photo/Andy Manis

Democrats are working to break GOP legislative supermajorities in 2024.

The party had a banner year, winning the Va. legislature and picking up seats in the NJ legislature.

"2023 laid the foundation for 2024 to be the year of the states," the DLCC president said.

This year, Democratic state legislative candidates in key races across the country were buoyed by abortion rights and gun reform, and as 2024 approaches, the organization that works to elect more of the party's candidates at the state level said it's ready to keep going.

Some of the biggest Democratic victories this year were ones that the party had been eyeing for some time, which included flipping the Virginia House of Delegates and holding the Virginia Senate, enshrining abortion rights into law in Michigan and Minnesota, and voter approval of a constitutional amendment ensuring access to abortion in Republican-leaning Ohio.

Democrats also picked up seats in the New Jersey legislature, including several South Jersey districts it lost two years ago.

In a memo first shared with Business Insider, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) said that it was building on the party's 2023 wins to make further gains in the 2024 elections.

The DLCC has its eye on breaking GOP supermajorities in otherwise competitive states like North Carolina and Wisconsin, where lawmakers have put into place heavily gerrymandered maps that have severely weakened Democrats in those legislatures. In North Carolina, Republicans hold supermajorities in both legislative chambers; they also hold a supermajority in the Wisconsin Senate.

"Our work is not over — 2024 promises even more opportunities for building Democratic power and infrastructure in the states," DLCC president Heather Williams said in a statement. "We have record-level momentum fueling us into the new year, and the DLCC is poised to protect our progress, flip key chambers, and unravel GOP supermajorities."

"2023 laid the foundation for 2024 to be the year of the states," she added.

The memo also touted the election of Janet Protasiewicz to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which not only ended 15 years of conservative control of the court but could potentially reshape the state's aforementioned legislative districts.

And it highlighted the new national prominence of the "Tennessee Three" — the trio of Democratic lawmakers that includes state Reps. Justin Pearson, Justin Jones, and Gloria Johnson — who protested on the floor of the Tennessee House of Representatives to push the GOP-controlled body to pass gun reform after a mass shooting at a Nashville private elementary school earlier this year. (Both Pearson and Jones were expelled from the legislature, but subsequently won special elections and returned to the body.)

In addition to their legislative wins, Democrats also had a key hold on the statewide level in reelecting Andy Beshear to a second term as Kentucky's governor over Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron. And despite Democrat Brandon Presley's loss in the Mississippi governor's race, he won 47.7% of the statewide vote (compared to GOP Gov. Tate Reeve's 50.9%), the closest gubernatorial election in the deep red state since 1999.

ROCKETRY

FAA's launch mishap investigations need a rethink, government report finds

Andrew Jones
Thu, December 14, 2023

A giant rocket separating during stage separation, with fiery plumes in all directions.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) should evaluate and improve the way it investigates space launch mishaps, according to recommendations from a government agency.

A Government Accountability Office (GAO) report published on Dec. 7 looks at data from 2000 through mid-January 2023, which show that 50 out of 433 commercial space launches during this time resulted in "mishaps" — a term used to describe events such as catastrophic explosions and other failures.

The FAA has been the lead investigative agency for 49 of the 50 mishaps, the report notes, with the exception being the fatal 2014 Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo crash. The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) investigated that incident.

Related: FAA wraps up safety review of SpaceX's huge Starship rocket

Though the FAA oversees inquiries, the agency says it determines if the launch operator will conduct investigations itself on a case-by-case basis. However, the GAO found that, in practice, the FAA has authorized the operator to conduct investigations.

A recent, high-profile mishap occurred in April, when the debut launch of SpaceX's giant Starship rocket ended in a spectacular explosion. SpaceX led that mishap investigation, with FAA oversight. The resulting report called for 63 corrective actions that SpaceX needed to take before being able to apply for a license for its second test flight. The FAA is also supervising the investigation into Starship's second test launch, a Nov. 18 liftoff that ended in a fiery demise and was also deemed a "mishap."

The new GAO report recommends that the Office of Commercial Space Transportation, under the FAA, comprehensively evaluate the effectiveness of its mishap investigation process.

A second recommendation calls for the FAA to define criteria for when an investigation should be led by the launch operator with FAA oversight or by the FAA itself.

The report notes that FAA officials told the GAO that it relies on an operator-led approach because the agency does not have adequate resources for in-house investigation, given highly specialized vehicle designs among companies. In-house mishap investigations would be "an immense undertaking that would mean investigations would take 10 to 20 times longer, officials told us," the report stated.

RELATED STORIES:

— FAA wraps up safety review of SpaceX's huge Starship rocket

— FAA to oversee investigation of SpaceX's explosive 2nd Starship flight

— FAA closes investigation of Blue Origin launch failure

The 2022 failure of Blue Origin's New Shepard research flight was also conducted with oversight from the FAA. The company led the investigation, which the FAA oversaw. The NTSB and NASA's Flight Opportunities Program and Commercial Crew Office also had observer status. New Shepard also carries crew for short suborbital flights.

The FAA agreed with Blue Origin's determination of the cause of the incident — a structural issue with a nozzle — and the agency closed the investigation this past September. However, Blue Origin needed to implement 21 corrective actions to "prevent mishap reoccurrence, including redesign of engine and nozzle components to improve structural performance during operation as well as organizational changes," before it could fly again, the September FAA report stated. The company is now preparing for an uncrewed flight scheduled for Dec. 18, some 15 months after the failure.

The GAO report states that the Department of Transportation, the FAA's parent agency, "concurred with our recommendations." The department committed to providing a detailed response to each GAO recommendation within 180 days of the report's issuance.

Aborted test and missing parts add to European space woes

Thu, December 14, 2023

A worker of Ariane Group stands in front of a Ariane 6 rocket's Vulcain 2.1 engine, prior to the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron, in Vernon

By Tim Hepher

PARIS (Reuters) - The final flight of Italy's Vega rocket has been delayed after crucial parts went missing, while the latest test of Europe's new Ariane 6 has been aborted, the European Space Agency said, the latest glitches to affect Europe's troubled launch sector.

The aborted test of the upper stage of Ariane 6 should not affect plans for an inaugural launch in mid-2024, ESA said.

Europe is racing to restore independent access to space after Ariane 6 suffered repeated delays and the Vega C was grounded after a launch failure, leaving a handful of launches of the original Vega version of the rocket.

Vega's final lift-off had been set for spring 2024, but that has been delayed to September after two out of four of its large propellant tanks disappeared from a factory in Italy, ESA officials told a news conference.

The loss was first reported by specialist publication European Spaceflight, which said the tanks had been found "crushed" and unusable in a landfill, alongside scraps of metal.

Because there are no spares, other than ones used in testing, which could be risky to re-use, the plan is to adapt slightly larger tanks designed for the more recent Vega C model, said Toni Toker-Nielsen, ESA's director of transportation.

He said the lost Vega tanks had not been stolen, but had no explanation as to how they ended up in a garbage dump.

According to the French space agency, Vega runs on propellant stored in four spherical 142-litre tanks.

Vega C failed on its second mission just under a year ago, destroying two imaging satellites. It will return to flight between mid-November and mid-December 2024, Toker-Nielsen said.

For the larger Ariane 6, the hot-firing test of the upper stage at Lampoldshauen in Germany on Dec. 7 was designed to study operating limits in degraded conditions and other factors.

"Unfortunately we had an abort two minutes into the firing test," Toker-Nielsen told reporters.

Manufacturer ArianeGroup is analysing the reasons, he said, adding there were no signs that the aborted test would delay the inaugural flight, scheduled for mid-June to end-July 2024.

ArianeGroup, co-owned by Airbus and Safran, was not immediately available for comment.

ESA said last month a long-firing engine test had been carried out successfully at a launchpad in French Guiana, allowing it to pick a launch window in 2024.

A further loading test will go ahead as planned on Friday.

(Reporting by Tim Hepher. Editing by Gerry Doyle)

Europe counts down to Ariane 6 rocket's maiden launch in mid-2024

Dhananjay Khadilkar
Sat, December 16, 2023

Europe's new Ariane 6 rocket launcher will make its first voyage between June 15 and July 31 next year, the European Space Agency has announced. The agency's head told RFI that the project signals the end to a period of crisis for Europe's launch programme.

Josef Aschbacher, director general of the European Space Agency (ESA), confirmed the dates for Ariane 6's long-awaited debut flight following the success of a key test on 23 November.

Speaking to RFI, Aschbacher called the test at Europe's spaceport in French Guiana "extremely important".

"It was the so-called long-duration hot-fire test, which simulated a full flight of of the rocket," he told RFI.

"It was extremely important because this was the test where we go through the various scenarios into various steps of a flight."

Aschbacher said that the test had confirmed the rocket's Vulcain 2.1 engine was firing successfully.

'Urgent' that Europe pursues space exploration, European space chief says
Launch crisis

According to the space chief, Europe is well on the path to get out of what he has called an "acute launcher crisis".

"We are out of the crisis when we launch [Ariane 6]," he said. "We are on a very good path to get out of this crisis."

Shetland is first UK spaceport for vertical rocket launches

BBC
Sun, December 17, 2023

A site in the Shetland Islands has become the UK's first spaceport for vertical rocket launches.

SaxaVord Spaceport on the small island of Unst has been given approval from the Civil Aviation Authority to begin launches in 2024.

It will be the first fully-licensed spaceport in Western Europe able to launch vertically into orbit.

It permits up to 30 launches a year, that will be used to take satellites and other payload into space.

Rocket launch from Shetland announced for next year

We built a spaceport on a Scottish island

The site, which is the first spaceport in Scotland, has a number of launch operators around the world currently developing rockets.

It is hoped that German rocket firm HyImpulse will attempt sub-orbital launches - flights that do not travel high enough to reach outer space - from August.

Full orbital launches are expected to take place at SaxaVord from 2025.

Map

Another German company, Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA), is also planning orbital launches, followed by Lockheed Martin/ABL Space Systems with the official UK Government Pathfinder launch.

Edinburgh-based Skyrora also aims to be the first UK company to launch from British soil in the coming years.

The SaxaVord Spaceport, a former RAF radar station, is co-owned by Frank and Debbie Strang.

They bought the site 15 years ago with initial plans to turn it into an eco-tourism attraction.

Mr Strang said the awarding of the licence was "historic".

Debbie and Frank Strang bought a former RAF radar station 15 years ago

He added: "Our team is very proud that the government has entrusted us with operating a complex, multi-disciplinary and multi-launch spaceport, and we all take this responsibility very seriously.

"There is much to do still but this is a fantastic way to end the year and head into Christmas."

The space industry in the UK is estimated to be worth £17.5bn and supports about 48,800 jobs at 2,200 firms.

Cornwall Spaceport was the UK's first licensed spaceport, however its rockets are launched horizontally carried by an aircraft.

Tim Johnson, director of space regulation at the CAA, said: "Granting SaxaVord their licence is an era-defining moment for the UK space sector.

"This marks the beginning of a new chapter for UK space as rockets may soon launch satellites into orbit from Scotland.

"We are undertaking vital work to make sure the UK's space activities are safe and sustainable for all."

UK transport Secretary Mark Harper said the CAA's announcement would boost Shetland's economy and "put the United Kingdom at the forefront of spaceflight innovation".

Last week, the UK Space Agency announced funding of more than £6.7m to further Scotland's spaceport ambitions.

Scotland currently has five proposed spaceports under development, with the Sutherland Spaceport also under construction with ambitions of launching 12 rockets into orbit per year.

A further spaceport is planned on North Uist, with both Glasgow Prestwick and Spaceport Machrihanish hoping to join the space race and conduct horizontal orbital launches in the future.

Shetland’s SaxaVord spaceport cleared for vertical rocket launches

Neil Pooran
Sun, December 17, 2023

Shetland’s SaxaVord spaceport cleared for vertical rocket launches
SaxaVord spaceport

A site at the northern-most point of the Shetland Islands has become the UK’s first licensed spaceport for vertical rocket launches.

SaxaVord Spaceport on Unst has been granted the licence by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), paving the way for its first launches in 2024.

The regulator verified that the privately-owned spaceport met the safety and environmental requirements for vertical space launches.

Owned by husband and wife Frank and Debbie Strang, the former RAF base is located on a remote peninsula on Unst.

It is licensed for up to 30 launches each year and caters for companies looking to launch satellites into polar, sun-synchronous orbits.

So far, just under £30 million has been spent on developing the spaceport, which includes three launch pads and a hangar for assembling rockets.

German companies Rocket Factory Augsburg and HyImpulse hope to carry out launches from SaxaVord in 2024.

Tim Johnson, director of space regulation at the CAA, said: “Granting SaxaVord their licence is an era-defining moment for the UK space sector.

A CGI picture of how the first launch could look (SaxaVord/PA)

“This marks the beginning of a new chapter for UK space as rockets may soon launch satellites into orbit from Scotland.

“We are undertaking vital work to make sure the UK’s space activities are safe and sustainable for all.”

Mr Strang said the award of the licence is “historic”, adding: “Our team is very proud that the Government has entrusted us with operating a complex, multi-disciplinary and multi-launch spaceport, and we all take this responsibility very seriously.

“There is much to do still but this is a fantastic way to end the year and head into Christmas.”

He and his wife took over the former RAF base in 2004. They also have plans for a hotel and visitor centre at SaxaVord.

Both the UK and Scottish governments welcomed the news of the licence.

Around £30 million has been spent developing the site (SaxaVord/PA)

UK Transport Secretary Mark Harper said: “The United Kingdom’s space industry is growing, with SaxaVord set for lift-off to become this country’s first vertical spaceport.

“Today’s historic announcement will boost Shetland’s economy and put the United Kingdom at the forefront of spaceflight innovation.”

The Scottish Government’s innovation minister Richard Lochhead said: “This milestone heralds a new era for space in Scotland.

“As the UK’s first licensed vertical spaceport, SaxaVord and Scotland can soon be a gateway to space, deploying cutting-edge small satellites into orbit for international and domestic customers alike.”

While Cornwall Spaceport became the UK’s first licensed spaceport, SaxaVord’s licence allows it to host vertical launches rather than horizontal launches of rockets carried by aircraft.

Record-breaking oil production from the US has left OPEC with its lowest crude market share in nearly a decade

Phil Rosen
Thu, December 14, 2023 at 3:51 PM MST·2 min re

The IEA said Thursday OPEC's share of the oil market has dropped to 51%, it's lowest since 2016.

That's thanks to record crude output from the US, Guyana, and Brazil in 2023.

The IEA also said global oil demand has slowed sharply amid economic turmoil.

Huge volumes of US oil production, as well as output from Brazil and Guyana, have eaten away at the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies' command of global crude flows, with the energy cartel's market share dropping to its lowest mark in nearly a decade, according to the International Energy Agency.

In its oil report covering data up to December 2023, the IEA said OPEC+'s market share had fallen to 51% in 2023.

It hasn't been that low since the group expanded to include additional allies in 2016, the Paris-based firm said.

"Record-breaking supply from the United States, Brazil and Guyana, and sharply higher Iranian oil production, along with easing demand, prompted some OPEC+ members to announce more extensive 100 2 1Q24 cuts to fend off a potential inventory build," the IEA said.

In a bid to steady crude prices, which have plunged 20% in the last two months, OPEC+ is on track to post a 400,000 barrel-a-day decline for the year.

At the same time, the US is on track to notch a supply increase of 1.4 million barrels a day for the year. American producers have enjoyed improved drilling efficiencies and well productivity in the shale patch, the energy group said.

In September, US supply exceeded 20 million barrels a day, running against industry warnings of a looming economic slowdown.

"Hefty supply cuts, largely shouldered by Saudi Arabia, have been tempered by Iranian production at five-year highs," the IEA said. "While non-OPEC+ supply growth is set to lose momentum in 2024, forecast gains of 1.2 mb/d may yet exceed the increase in global oil demand."

Still, the IEA maintained that a slowdown in crude demand is indeed coming and macroeconomic headwinds are mounting.

The pace of expansion, in their forecast, is set to ease from 2.8 million barrels a day year-over-year in the third quarter to 1.9 million in the fourth quarter.

The IEA lowered its forecast on global oil demand growth for 2023 by 90,000 barrels a day from last month's prediction, to 2.3 million barrels a day.

"The impact of higher interest rates is feeding through to the real economy while petrochemical activity shifts increasingly to China, undermining growth elsewhere," the IEA said. "Europe is particularly soft amid the continent's broad manufacturing and industrial slump. In addition, tighter efficiency standards and an expanding electric vehicle fleet continue to curb oil use."

US Frackers Return to Haunt OPEC’s Pricing Strategy

David Wethe, Mia Gindis and Kevin Crowley
Sun, December 17, 2023

(Bloomberg) -- OPEC’s one-time nemesis — US shale — is rearing its head just months after the sector was all but written off as a threat to the cartel’s sway over worldwide oil markets.

Drillers from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Bakken Shale of North Dakota have ramped up oil production well beyond what analysts foresaw, pushing output to a record just as OPEC and its allies put the brakes on supplies in a bid to arrest price declines.

This time last year, US government forecasters predicted domestic production would average 12.5 million barrels a day during the current quarter. In recent days, that estimate was bumped to 13.3 million; the difference is equivalent to adding a new Venezuela to global supplies.

That growth is reverberating around the world, calling into question the OPEC+ group’s strategy of curbing supplies to prevent the potentially catastrophic price impacts of a glut. It also makes clear that the legions of companies that pump oil from US shale fields still wield enough power to bedevil the cartel’s efforts.

“The US clearly played a huge role in the global market in 2023, including pressuring OPEC+ to curtail their output,” Wood Mackenzie Ltd. analyst Ryan Duman said during an interview.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, abetted by its Russian ally, overtly sought to check the influence of North American shale as early as 2014, when the group flooded world markets with crude in a bid to recapture market share from the ascendant US oil sector. The move aggravated an existing supply glut and triggered a 65% plunge in crude prices that took 14 months to bottom out.

That collapse sent a jolt through the economics of US shale, ending years of breakneck production growth. And although the expansion eventually resumed, it was thrown into reverse by the global pandemic in early 2020. The shale industry emerged from that setback with a resolve to prioritize returning cash to investors instead of chasing production gains.

Meanwhile, in the years since the 2014-2016 selloff, the OPEC+ alliance, as it came to be known, worked to enforce supply quotas among member nations as part of a broader strategy of balancing global supply-and-demand to maintain robust prices.

That self discipline helped stabilize the market in 2020, and again this year in the face of slowing demand and a glut of oil. But OPEC+’s latest cuts announced at the end of November haven’t stopped crude from slipping further. And all the while, US shale — plus production in places like Brazil and Guyana — has crept higher. Further action by OPEC+ may be needed to shore up the market: Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told Bloomberg earlier this month that the group can “absolutely” maintain discipline beyond the first quarter of 2024 if required.

What Bloomberg Intelligence Says

The OPEC+ 1 million barrels-a-day voluntary output cut won’t inspire much confidence as smaller members have little incentive to abide by its terms and larger ones may not reduce exports due to seasonality. ... US shale growth and a recovery in Iranian and Venezuelan output could effectively offset all the additional proposed cuts through 1Q.

— Fernando Valle and Salih Yilmaz, BI analysts

Part of what makes the US crude surge surprising is that companies managed to increase production even as the number of drilling rigs at work fell roughly 20% this year. That productivity gain has confounded many analysts and researchers who have long relied on the so-called rig count as a predictor of future crude output.

Explorers are squeezing crude out of new wells more efficiently because of innovations in everything from electric-pump technology to new strategies for deploying workers while fracking wells to minimize downtime. A key example has been the replacement of the iconic, decades-old pumpjack with high-tech underground gear as tall as a three-story building that sits inside a well to push more crude to the surface.

On a recent windswept morning in the Permian Basin of West Texas, Diamondback Energy Inc. drilling chief Yong Cho stood in a control room part-way up a 180-foot (55-meter) rig as a crew went to work on a fresh well. The company has reduced the time it takes to drill an average well by about 40% over the last three years, thanks in part to boring slightly smaller holes, adjusting the solution that’s pumped down shafts to power drills, and subtle refinements in the steel-and-polycrystalline-diamond-tipped bits.

“In 2019, the average well took me 19.5 days,” Cho said during an interview afterward. “Now it takes me 11.5 days.”

But a shale well isn’t finished when the drilling is done. A separate array of workers and gear is called upon to frack it so that crude can begin to flow. It’s the last and most-expensive part of oil production, and frackers have achieved similar efficiency gains, shortening the process by three days to little more than a week per well, according to Kimberlite International Oilfield Research.

“Every year we’re seeing more efficiency,” Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth said during a recent talk at the Council on Foreign Relations. “And you’re seeing, through a number of acquisitions and consolidations, companies that have the scale to bring these capabilities to bear in a way that just drives further efficiency and industrial kind of progress there.”

Analysts had expected US producers to increase output modestly this year. That’s partly because after years of heavily investing in production and being burned by downturns, companies pledged to keep spending in check and focus on returning cash to shareholders.

The role of private producers may have also caused forecasters to underestimate oil production because their activity is harder to model than publicly-listed peers who report earnings every quarter.

Out of the 10 fastest growing producers by volume since the pandemic, seven of them were private companies, according to S&P Global. Mewbourne Oil Co. and Endeavor Energy Resources LP led the charge, adding more barrels to the market than Exxon Mobil Corp. since 2019.

There are indications that US drillers may once again exercise more restraint when it comes to expanding budgets. Annual growth in industry spending is estimated to be just 2% in 2024, down from this year’s 19% growth rate and a fraction of the record 44% increase of two years ago, according to Evercore ISI.

“It’s not drill, baby, drill like it was during the shale boom,” Angie Gildea, who leads KPMG’s US energy practice, said in an interview. “It’s meaningful but measured growth.”

--With assistance from Mitchell Ferman, Grant Smith, Devika Krishna Kumar, Lucia Kassai, Will Kennedy and Joe Ryan.

Bloomberg Businessweek

Weeks-old government dubbed ‘anti-Māori’ as culture wars rage in New Zealand

Analysis by Angus Watson, CNN
Sat, December 16, 2023

New Zealand’s new right-leaning government took more than a month to take shape, but Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his coalition partners are now racing to strip back policies that had earned former leader Jacinda Ardern plaudits worldwide amongst progressives.

While a swing to the right was predicted, the pace of change under the Nationals’ Luxon has startled observers, and his coalition’s moves to ditch policies seen to favor the country’s indigenous people has seen critics quickly accuse them of being “anti-Māori.”

Under Luxon, the government is proposing to dissolve the country’s Māori Health Authority, rollback the use of the Māori language, and end the country’s limits on tobacco sales – a move Māori leaders had sought to cut high rates of smoking among their people.

“Your attacks on our culture have motivated our standing in solidarity,” the co-leader of the Te Pati Māori party, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, blasted across the parliamentary aisle in the capital Wellington this month.

The same day, the Māori King, Tūheitia Potatau Te Wherowhero VII, issued a royal proclamation calling for a “national hui” – a coming together of the country’s indigenous people, to discuss “holding the new coalition government to account.”

Many New Zealanders feel the same, with tens of thousands of people turning out across the country for anti-government demonstrations hastily arranged by Ngarewa-Packer’s party.

“It was a dignified shot across the bow,” Ngarewa-Packer told CNN of the protests on December 5. “To say we won’t accept this. And that this is what we can do in a short amount of time.”

“Do I think that the Prime Minister will listen? He has to,” Ngarewa-Packer said, adding that the world is watching the Luxon government.

“I think it’s a humiliating position for a first time Prime Minister to be in,” she said.

Speaking at a news conference on the day of the protests, Luxon said the criticism of his new government was “pretty unfair.”

“We are determined that Māori are going to do better under our government than they have in the last six years,” he said.
Voter backlash

Ardern resigned as Prime Minister in January, handing the leadership to her deputy Chris Hipkins, who attempted to refocus their Labour Party’s policies on the cost-of-living crisis.

But it wasn’t enough to extend Labour’s time in office.

While Ardern won fans around the world for her compassionate response to the 2019 Christchurch terror attack, her position on climate change and by championing working mothers in politics, her domestic legacy is far more contested.

Jacinda Ardern and Chris Hipkins, both now former Labour prime ministers, arrive for a cabinet caucus meeting in Wellington on January 22, 2023. - Mark Coote/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Failed Auckland infrastructure projects led to accusations of wastefulness at a time when the Labour’s “wellbeing budgets” dramatically increased payments to underprivileged families. Farmers protested legislation to curb agricultural emissions and protect waterways.

Before the vote, the leaders of the new conservative coalition government, made up of The National Party, New Zealand First, and ACT New Zealand, had all promised to unwind some of Arden’s legacy.

Right-wing candidates railed against the Labour’s perceived expansion of New Zealand’s long-held principle of co-governance, designed to ensure Māori representation in administrative bodies. And in the lead-up to the vote, some Māori candidates complained of racist abuse.

The election on October 14 saw a flurry of deal-making as Luxon sought to shore up his thin margin with smaller players.

In late November, the new partners published a 100-day plan under which initiatives designed to benefit Māori will be rolled back, including a vow to dissolve the Māori Health Authority established in 2022 with a mandate to improve the health of indigenous people.

The plan also backflips on Ardern’s world-leading ban on the sale of cigarettes to people born after 2008 – also seen as anti-Māori as some 20% of Māori adults smoke, far higher than the national average of 8%.

Protesters attend an anti-tobacco protest at Parliament on December 13, 2023 in Wellington, New Zealand. - Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

Organizations such as The Māori Women’s Welfare League, that works to empower Māori women and children, have vowed to hold Luxon accountable on his assertion that Māori health outcomes will be improved by what his government argues will be a reduction in red tape.

“They are not things that are dreamed up in five minutes. They are established because of evidence over time,” Māori Women’s Welfare League President Hope Tupara said.

“We saw (the Ardern administration) increasing the amount of government investment into Māori health solutions by Māori providers on the basis of ‘by Māori for Māori.’

“We have an expectation of the kinds of public services that are available to us as part of the population, which I think is reasonable.”

Richard Shaw, a professor of politics at New Zealand’s Massey University, described Luxon’s government as “the most explicitly anti-Māori government” he could remember.

“This is the first government that I can recall which has quite explicitly said, ‘we’ll have less of that,’ not ‘we’ll have more of it,’” said Shaw.

“So, this really is an awkward, unsettled moment.”
Culture wars

New Zealand’s voters in October stripped Hipkins’ Labour Party of 31 seats to almost half their previous stature in the country’s single-chamber parliament – a crushing defeat that leaves them in an awkward position.

But the victors may never feel completely comfortable either. New Zealand’s mixed member proportional voting system means parties rarely govern alone.

Luxon’s National Party, which won just over 38% of the vote is forced to govern in coalition with the far smaller, and less moderate New Zealand First and ACT New Zealand parties. Both junior coalition parties will drag Luxon to the right.

New Zealand First has long opposed the official use of Māori terms, from road signs to government departments. The party says the widespread practice of referring to New Zealand by the country’s Māori name, Aotearoa, is an example of “virtue signalling and politically correct extremism.” Luxon says his government will adopt an “English first” approach.

ACT is forcing Luxon to entertain the possibility of a future referendum on the principles of New Zealand’s Treaty of Waitangi, a document signed by the colonial British regime and Māori in 1840 that enshrines principles of co-governance between indigenous and non-indigenous New Zealanders.

While Luxon says the proposed referendum would “go no further” than a debate by a parliamentary select committee, the open questioning of the usefulness of the treaty may diminish it as a historic declaration of equality, warns academic Shaw from Massey University.

For Tupara, from the Māori Women’s League, New Zealand’s current political moment is not just a passing culture war.

“We have been fighting the government since the 1800s, so this is not new to us,” she said.

“This fight for our own identity is nothing new to us. I think the level of opposition to what we have achieved for ourselves is something that I haven’t seen in my lifetime.”

Ngarewa-Packer’s Māori political party wants to harness the power of that historic fight to win modern political battles in New Zealand.

She says she has a broad coalition of progressive New Zealanders who will support her, Māori and non-Māori.

“Within less than 72 hours, we were able to mobilize tens of thousands across the country, with no resourcing, completely using our social media. It was a test to ourselves, to see if we had the capability, the capacity to mobilize an alliance,” she said.

“Sometimes you need this revolting, backwards politicking to remind people why we participate.”

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Pope speaks out after IDF sniper kills two women inside Gaza church, per Catholic authorities

Maija Ehlinger, Jomana Karadsheh, Kareem El Damanhoury and Heather Chen, CNN
Sun, December 17, 2023

An Israeli military sniper shot and killed two women inside the Holy Family Parish in Gaza on Saturday, according to the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem.

The mother and daughter were walking to the Sister’s Convent, the patriarchate said, when gunfire erupted. “One was killed as she tried to carry the other to safety,” it added.

Seven others were also shot and wounded in the attack at the complex, where most Gaza’s Christian families have taken refuge since the start of the war, according to the patriarchate, which oversees Catholic Churches across Cyprus, Jordan, Israel, Gaza and the West Bank.

“No warning was given, no notification was provided,” the statement continued. “They were shot in cold blood inside the premises of the parish, where there are no belligerents.”

Pope Francis on Sunday addressed the deaths at the Holy Family Parish, lamenting that “unarmed civilians are targets for bombs and gunfire” in Gaza and invoking scripture on war.

“I continue receiving very serious and sad news about Gaza. Unarmed civilians are targets for bombs and gunfire. And this has happened even within the parish complex of the Holy Family, where there are no terrorists, but families, children, people who are sick and have disabilities, sisters,” he said during his weekly Angelus prayer.

“Some are saying, ‘This is terrorism and war.’ Yes, it is war, it is terrorism. That is why Scripture says that ‘God puts an end to war… the bow he breaks and the spear he snaps,’” the Pope continued.

“Let us pray to the Lord for peace,” he added.

According to the patriarchate, Israel Defense Forces tanks also targeted the Convent of the Sisters of Mother Theresa, which houses 54 disabled people and is part of the church’s compound. The building’s generator, its only current source of electricity, as well as its fuel resources, solar panels and water tanks were also destroyed.

IDF rockets had made the convent “uninhabitable,” the statement said.

CNN has repeatedly reached out to the IDF for comment.

On Friday, UK lawmaker Layla Moran, a member of parliament for Oxford West and Abingdon, said that members of her family sheltering in the church were “beyond desperate and terrified” as conditions continued to worsen.

Moran on November 15 told the UK House of Commons that a family member who had been sheltering in the church had died. Citing accounts from her family, Moran added that electricity generators at the church had stopped.

“[My family] are reporting white phosphorous and gunfire into their compound,” she said. “The bin collector and the janitor have been shot and their bodies are laying outside and remain uncollected.”

CNN cannot independently verify the conditions in and around the church, nor the allegation of the use of incendiary munitions (which can be illegal in some circumstances).

This is a developing story and will be updated.

Canada's UN ambassador defends UN vote as 'compassionate' response to humanitarian disaster in Gaza

Story by Christian Paas-Lang • CBC

Bob Rae, Canada's ambassador to the United Nations, speaks to an emergency special session of the UN General Assembly on the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas at the UN headquarters in New York City on Oct. 27.© Mike Segar/Reuters

Canada's ambassador to the UN says Canada's decision to vote in favour of a humanitarian ceasefire was a necessary reaction to the increasingly desperate humanitarian situation in Gaza, as major international powers join the call for a ceasefire.

In an interview airing Sunday on Rosemary Barton Live, Bob Rae said that Canada could not stand by and remain fixed in its position as the scale of destruction and number of civilian deaths in Gaza continued to rise.

"It was a changing of the situation on the ground. The war has caused such major destruction in Gaza, and caused such humanitarian hardship ... and over the last three weeks [the calls of humanitarian agencies] have gotten more and more urgent, so naturally it's something that causes us to reflect," he told CBC chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton.

Canada voted Tuesday in favour of a non-binding motion in the UN General Assembly calling for an "immediate humanitarian ceasefire." It marks a change in Canada's voting pattern, which traditionally supports Israel.

"We cannot be indifferent to what we know is happening in Gaza and the impact that it's having on civilians. And that's really what I think has led to the government's decision to support this particular motion," Rae said.

But he added that the vote didn't indicate Canada was abandoning its support for Israel

"There's no way in which Canada is changing its position in respect to its support for the state of Israel to live in security, to live with boundaries. There's no change in our position with respect to Hamas, none whatsoever," he said.

"What there is is a response to a humanitarian situation in a way that shows, I think, what Canadians want, which is for their government to show compassion in a situation that demands compassion."

Jewish groups in Canada and even MPs within the Liberal caucus denounced the decision to vote for the UN resolution. Israel's ambassador to Canada said this week he was "deeply disappointed" in the vote.

"The motion was an unconditional call for a ceasefire. I do not support an unconditional call for a ceasefire. I do not believe a majority of my constituents support an unconditional call for a ceasefire," Liberal MP Anthony Housefather said earlier this week.

"It's my obligation to speak out when I think Canada has abandoned its traditional position at the UN in support of Israel at a time when Israel is at war."

One major criticism of the resolution was that it lacks any reference to Hamas.

In response to prior resolutions, Rae had said that Canada could not support a resolution that did not sufficiently condemn Hamas. An amendment to include such language in the most recent resolution failed to reach the two-thirds threshold of support needed, something Rae said was "very regrettable."

In a separate statement released by the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand governments earlier Tuesday, the three countries specifically called out Hamas.

"This cannot be one-sided. Hamas must release all hostages, stop using Palestinian civilians as human shields, and lay down its arms," the statement said.
Broader international turn against Israel's actions

Canada's vote is part of a wider hardening of the international community's position against Israel's actions in Gaza. U.S. President Joe Biden this week issued his strongest rebuke so far of the Israeli campaign, saying the country was losing international support. On Saturday, both the United Kingdom and Germany — countries which voted against the UN resolution earlier in the week — endorsed a "sustainable ceasefire," while France on Sunday called for a "immediate and durable truce."

Gaza's Health Ministry says more than 18,600 Palestinians have been killed by Israel's military since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas, in which around 1,200 Israelis were killed and 240 others taken hostage, according to the Israeli government.

Rae said the situation in Gaza is "very much as bad as people are hearing."

The ambassador emphasized that Canada needed to adapt to the evolving situation on the ground and the state of humanitarian disaster.

"We cannot be cold and unaffected by that, we have to respond to it in a real way," he said.