It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Revolutionizing root senescence recognition with SegFormer-UN: A leap forward in plant health monitoring
NANJING AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY THE ACADEMY OF SCIENCE
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THE OVERALL PROCESS OF DATASET ACQUISITION AND MODEL TRAINING
Roots play a vital role in plant health, adapting to environmental changes and indicating crop growth. However, studying root senescence is challenging due to difficulties in obtaining clear in situ root images. Traditional methods are limited, and while in situ cultivation and advanced imaging techniques offer some solutions, they face issues such as high costs and low image quality. Recent advances in deep learning, particularly semantic segmentation models like SegNet and UNet, have improved root identification but still require further optimization.
In March 2024, Plant Phenomics published a research article entitled by “Improved Transformer for Time Series Senescence Root Recognition”. This study focuses on utilizing the RhizoPot system and exploring root segmentation models to enhance root senescence recognition, aiming to fill the gap in efficient, accurate root analysis for better plant health monitoring.
This paper evaluates eight segmentation models, including PSPNet, SegNet, UNet, DeeplabV3plus, TransUNet, SwinUNet, SETR, and a novel approach which is named SegFormer-UN trained uniformly for 100 epochs. The SegFormer-UN model, particularly its "Small" version, demonstrates superior performance with higher mIoU and mRecall rates of 81.06% and 86.29%, respectively, while maintaining lower computational demands (FLOPs and Params). Further, a "Large" version of SegFormer-UN even outperforms this with the highest recorded mIoU, mRecall, and mF1 scores. This indicates a clear advancement over traditional methods and other TransFormer neural networks, despite the deeper model requiring more computational resources.
In-depth analysis through ablation studies reveals that altering the upsampling method alone diminishes performance metrics compared to the base model, highlighting the complexity of optimizing segmentation accuracy. However, modifications in the decoder structure, specifically adopting the UNet and DeeplabV3plus decoders, show varied results. SegFormer-UN stands out by significantly enhancing the accuracy and reducing computational load, proving the effectiveness of integrating advanced decoders with the model's architecture.
Furthermore, the paper explores root senescence extraction, demonstrating the SegFormer-UN model's ability ,which can accurately classify and extract senescent roots rapidly, leveraging GPU acceleration. This method significantly outperforms traditional image processing techniques, reducing processing time from 31 minutes to about 4 minutes per image, and provides more precise root system identification despite challenges with occlusion by soil particles. Additionally, time-series analysis of root senescence, utilizing dimensionality reduction and clustering, indicates an increase in senescence proportion over time, validated by high R-Squared values from polynomial fitting.
In conclusion, the SegFormer-UN model, particularly its application to root segmentation and senescence extraction, exhibits a significant advancement in accuracy, efficiency, and computational economy. This study not only sets a new benchmark for root segmentation models but also emphasizes the potential for deep learning techniques in agricultural research, particularly in understanding root systems and their senescence patterns.
1College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Hebei Agricultural University, 10 071000, Baoding, China
2College of Foreign Languages, Hebei Agricultural University, 071000, Baoding, China
About Nan Wang
He is currently a Lecturer with the School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Hebei Agricultural University. His research interests include computational intelligence, image processing, and data analysis.
Successive and overlapping crises can lead to a lack of information, a flood of information that overwhelms essential information, or even distorted information. Society needs to be information resilient, that is resistant to crises, including disruptions related to information. According to a new study from the University of Vaasa, Finland, we need a culture that accepts uncertainty and imperfection of knowledge.
Aino Rantamäki' s doctoral dissertation at the University of Vaasa highlights the prerequisites for societal crisis resilience, particularly in relation to the informational dimension of crises.
Recent years have been marked by various crises and exceptional circumstances, such as the Covid 19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the mobilisation of refugees on the Russian border. These crises are not all the same, but regardless of their type, they are all associated with uncertainty. Uncertainty is linked to a lack of information, particularly in the early stages of a crisis, and to the contradictory, unclear and even untruthful nature of information as the crisis progresses.
The lack of information is often responded to by massive information production, which can lead to the loss of information that is essential for action.
– Both incomplete and excessive information have consequences that undermine the capacity of individuals and society to act. It is not appropriate, let alone possible, to strive for perfect information, so instead of producing too much information, it is important to invest in building a common understanding of the situation and improving the usability of information, says Rantamäki, who will defend her dissertation at the University of Vaasa on 22 March 2024.
Crises are not only inevitable, but also necessary. They force us to remain vigilant, maintain preparedness, and develop skills and lessons learned.
Rantamäki stresses that although information resilience is realised during crises, it is built and strengthened in normal circumstances.
– Maintaining trust in society, building skills that are essential for information resilience and enabling foresight that leaves room for application are ways to strengthen the structures that support information resilience, says Rantamäki.
In addition, a common will is needed. Information resilience is built through interaction and cannot be the responsibility of a single actor or agency. This means that we need ways, space, and opportunities for dialogue between different groups of actors. According to Rantamäki, interaction in support of information resilience requires dialogue across sectors, levels, and disciplines, so that a common understanding of the situation can be built and rebuilt.
New results from multi-method research to support information resilience
Rantamäki's doctoral research takes a multi-method approach to information resilience. The study uses not only qualitative conceptual analysis and content analysis, but also network analysis linked to a more quantitative research tradition. The data consists of previous research literature, newspaper articles from the time of the Covid 19 pandemic, networks of stakeholders in the consultations behind the legislation, expert interviews, panels, and workshops.
The dissertation provides new scientific knowledge on information resilience in a governance context and a practical understanding of the means to support information resilience in society. The understanding built up in the dissertation can therefore be used both in future scientific research and in the development of, for example, social preparedness or organisational knowledge management.
Public defence
The public examination of Master of Health Care Aino Rantamäki’s doctoral dissertation “Hallintaa epävarmuudessa – Informaatioresilienssi kriiseissä ja niihin varautumisessa” will be held at the University of Vaasa on Friday 22 March 2024 at noon. Professor Jari Stenvall (University of Tampere) will act as an opponent and Professor Harri Jalonen from the University of Vaasa as a custos. The defence will be held in Finnish.
Dissertation
Rantamäki, Aino (2024) Hallintaa epävarmuudessa – Informaatioresilienssi kriiseissä ja niihin varautumisessa. Acta Wasaensia 530. Doctoral dissertation. University of Vaasa.
HKU remote sensing and landscape scholars reveal global wildfire risk trends in Wildland-Urban Interface areas (1985-2020)
THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG
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GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF WUIS. (A) GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF GLOBAL WUI AREAS, (B) ZOOMED-IN SUBSETS OF INTERMIX WUI AND INTERFACE WUI AREAS AND (C) GLOBAL URBAN AREAS OVERLAID ON HIGH-RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS DIFFERENT CONTINENTS IN 2020.
Wildfires present complex socio-economic and ecological challenges, as they devastate vegetation, endanger communities, and cause extensive environmental, wildlife, and human health impacts. These consequences include severe air pollution and soaring firefighting costs.
Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) areas, which are transition zones between wilderness and human-developed land, are particularly susceptible to wildfires. The risk is heightened due to flammable vegetation and the effects of climate change, such as rising temperatures and frequent heatwaves. Consequently, mitigating wildfire risks has become a global priority.
Although WUIs are known to be densely populated by wildfires, there is still a significant knowledge gap regarding their spatial and temporal characteristics, as well as their global wildfire exposure risks. Recently, researchers from HKU, in collaboration with leading interdisciplinary teams from UC Davis, Yale, Utah and Tsinghua, unveiled pioneering mapping results that show a significant surge in global WUIs over the past 35 years (1985-2020).
Published in Nature Sustainability, this groundbreaking research provides reliable, spatially explicit WUI mapping and quantifies WUI – wildfire interaction under climate change. The findings offer essential insights for effective fire management, resilient community development, and global insurance regulations.
The research team has introduced an innovative method for mapping interfaces with crucial human-nature conflicts, using data from Meta for building footprints and data from satellite-derived land cover classification products for wildland vegetation to examine the interaction between houses and nature.
The researchers utilised these detailed and high-resolution data to assess the proximity of buildings to vegetations from 1985 to 2020, revealing the expansive coverage of global WUI areas prone to wildfires, which span a total of 6.62 million square kilometres in 2020. A time-series analysis from 1985 to 2020 also indicates a substantial 12.56% increase of WUIs over 35 years.
Comparing this information with wildfire history, they estimated potential impacts of wildfires on human settlements within WUIs in various scenarios: directly, with a buffer of 2,400 metres and with a buffer of 4,800 metres from wildfires. Their analysis uncovered that globally, 0.83% of WUIs housing 0.27 million people directly experienced wildfire risks.
Moreover, 7.07% and 12.54% of WUI areas housing 4.47 million and 10.11 million people face potential wildfire threats within a 2,400-metre and 4,800-metre buffer zone, respectively.
“This underscores a significant at-risk demographic even at a distance from the actual wildfire, emphasising the profound implications for community safety and integrity of infrastructure in the potential far-reaching risks from wildfires.” Professor Bin Chen, the principal investigator of this research and Assistant Professor in the Division of Landscape Architecture at HKU explained.
Regionally, the United States, Brazil, China, India, and Australia host most WUI areas, while African countries face heightened wildfire risk despite a comparatively lower WUI extent.
“Our research contributes to an advanced understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) areas and their associated wildfire risk. This knowledge equips policymakers and stakeholders with the insights to strategically allocate resources and implement tailored measures to protect vulnerable communities.” Professor Chen added.
In this study, Professor Chen emphasised the vital differentiation of two WUI distribution subcategories—Interface WUI and Intermix WUI, each reflecting distinct wildfire characteristics and illustrating varying degrees of potential wildfire risk. Interface WUI, where housing is near dense wildland vegetation, is spatially delineated on the WUI map, while Intermix WUI is where housing and wilderness closely intermingle. Notably, in areas designated as Intermix WUIs, the risk of wildfires is higher. This distinction in spatial patterns helps us better understand and quantify the comparative risks associated with different types of WUIs.
Professor Chris Webster, Dean of HKU Faculty of Architecture, highlighted the timeliness of the team’s findings: “The intensification of global warming, urban sprawl, and the extensive road network expansion at the natural boundaries of cities pose unprecedented challenges for wildfire prevention in the future. This research provides a keen insight into the surface changes of global WUI and the mechanisms of fire risk. It timely offers a forward-looking global reference for short, medium, and long-term wildfire risk mitigation under a changing climate, especially for WUI residents, including vulnerable groups.”
Professor Peng Gong, Chair Professor of Global Sustainability at the Department of Geography and the Department of Earth Sciences, Vice-President (Academic Development) of HKU, also stressed the significance of this research: “This study aims for an interdisciplinary collaboration to address challenges at the critical WUI areas imposed by human settlement expansion, climate change, and natural hazards. Scholars in remote sensing, landscape, earth system modelling, and economic geography have standardised multidimensional data combined with state-of-the-art mapping methods. This collaborative effort has filled the gap in a comprehensive global spatiotemporal distribution of WUIs over the past three decades, solidifying a structural foundation for global wildfire risk assessments. The insights gained can guide land-use planning and development decisions, promoting sustainable urban growth while effectively mitigating wildfire risks”.
About the research team This research was led by Professor Bin Chen, Director of Future Urbanity & Sustainable Environment (FUSE) Lab, Division of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, HKU. The collaborative team includes Dr Shengbiao Wu, Research Assistant Professor, Division of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, HKU; Professor Yufang Jin, University of California Davis; Dr Yimeng Song, Postdoctoral Researcher, Yale University; Dr Chao Wu, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Utah; Professor Sergey Venevsky and Professor Bing Xu, Tsinghua University; Professor Chris Webster, HKUrbanLabs, Faculty of Architecture, HKU; and Professor Peng Gong, Department of Geography and Department of Earth Sciences, HKU.
This study is supported by The University of Hong Kong HKU-100 Scholars Fund, Seed Fund for Strategic Interdisciplinary Research Scheme Fund, Research Grants Council of Hong Kong Early Career Scheme (HKU27600222), General Research Fund (HKU17601423), National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFB3903703), National Natural Science Foundation of China / Research Grants Council Joint Research Scheme (N_HKU722/23), HKU Business School Shenzhen Research Institutes, Croucher Foundation, International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals (CBAS2022GSP04, CBAS2022ORP02), and National Natural Science Foundation of China Major Research Plan (42090015).
About the FUSE Lab FUSE Lab aims to leverage geospatial and remote sensing big data, data-model fusion, and advanced interdisciplinary approaches to investigate the interaction loops between urban environmental change, human activities, and public health, with the ultimate goal of contributing to sustainable development. FUSE lab’s research focuses on four primary directions: (1) Urban and Natural Environmental Changes; (2) Human-Environment Spatiotemporal Interaction; (3) Impact of Human Activities and Environmental Changes on Public Health; and (4) Urban Environment Improvement Theory and Adaptation Pathways.
To promote knowledge exchange, more recent research activities can be viewed through https://fuselab.hku.hk/
Statistics of global WUI areas at the country level.
Examples of Interface WUI (left; Birdsboro, Philadelphia) and Intermix WUI
(right; Placerville, California). Data source from Google Earth imagery.
Building footprint (left, source: META) and land cover classification
(right, source: ESA WorldCover) in the same area of North California
INTERMEDIATE VOLATILITY COMPOUNDS DOMINATE THE SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOL FORMATION. ON THE LEFT, THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF DIFFERENT ORGANIC GASES TO BIOMASS-BURNING SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOL ARE SHOWN, INDICATING THE DOMINANT CONTRIBUTION (~70%) OF INTERMEDIATE VOLATILITY ORGANIC COMPOUNDS (IVOCS). ON THE RIGHT IS THE CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OF THESE IVOCS.
Biomass burning, including wildfires and residential heating, emits a variety of air pollutants and has a series of negative impacts on the environment. Biomass burning is one of the world's largest sources of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols, and the transport and evolution of these pollutants in the atmosphere affect stratospheric ozone, radiation balance, cloud formation, etc. With global warming, the frequency and intensity of wildfires keep increasing, and the environmental impact of biomass burning has become increasingly important.
The latest research published in National Science Review demonstrated that intermediate volatility compounds (IVOCs) are the major contributors to secondary organic aerosols formed from biomass-burning emissions. This study is led by Professor Kun Li (Shandong University, China) and Professor Andre Prevot (Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland).
“This is a breakthrough for biomass-burning aerosol research,” says Kun Li, the first author and corresponding author of the paper. “Because the main contributors of secondary organic aerosols were thought to be volatile organic compounds (VOCs) rather than IVOCs in previous studies.”
The way that the researchers use to achieve this is the newly-developed laminar-flow oxidation reactor, which can significantly reduce the wall loss of oxidation intermediates, and therefore, obtain a more accurate aerosol production. “We developed this reactor a couple of years ago but it was the first time we applied it for studying biomass-burning emissions,” says Li.
This study found that IVOCs contributed about 70% of secondary organic aerosols in biomass-burning emissions, more than twice as much as VOCs. In addition, the composition, concentration, and yield of secondary organic aerosols generated by IVOCs were analyzed in detail. The results show that the potential of IVOCs to generate secondary organic aerosols is high, with an average yield of about 100%.
“This is the first experimental evidence of the dominant contribution of IVOCs to biomass-burning organic aerosols,” says Li. “The results indicate that previous studies on secondary organic aerosol formation may have significantly underestimated the contribution of lower volatile compounds, such as IVOCs and their oxidation products, in complex emission sources.”
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See the article:
Uncovering the dominant contribution of intermediate volatility compounds in secondary organic aerosol formation from biomass-burning emissions
Should I invest my money with a small chance of big returns? Or is it better to pick investments that promise a series of modest returns? A psychologist from the University of Basel conducted a scientific experiment to study when people prefer certain types of investments.
When a company first goes public on the stock exchange, the corresponding securities are referred to as IPO (initial public offering) shares. These shares are typically characterized by their below-average returns for the first few years after the initial offering – with the exception of a few outliers that boom right from the start. In other words, the likelihood of high returns is rather small.
So why do people still purchase IPO shares? Because they overestimate the probability of the stock becoming one of the rare super performers. This phenomenon is described by prospect theory, the leading theory used to explain decision-making in the face of uncertainty. It’s a similar story when people purchase lottery tickets: they are hoping to hit the jackpot.
There are also investments that result in a much different distribution of profits and losses, with a high likelihood of small returns. This is the standard case, so to speak. On the other hand, big losses are unlikely, such as with catastrophe bonds, or “cat bonds”. Insurance companies use these bonds to create a financial cushion that enables them to guarantee coverage in the event of a disaster. If nothing happens, investors receive a series of small payouts. In the statistically unlikely event of a natural disaster, however, all of the money they have invested is lost.
Then what stocks should I pick?
What circumstances affect how people select a given type of security in the first place? Dr. Sebastian Olschewski from the Faculty of Psychology has published a study on the topic in the journal PNAS.
In the experiment, test subjects were asked to choose between two or three different stocks, for example, one offering “a low probability of high returns” and another offering “a high probability of modest returns with rare but potentially high losses”.
To aid in the decision-making process, information was provided about the performance of the stocks, i.e. when and what returns were generated by the specific stocks on day 1, day 2, day 3, etc. This allowed test subjects to closely examine the volume and frequency of the returns from each individual stock.
Frequent returns preferred
The results showed that having the possibility to compare different stock types greatly affects a person’s decision – and in a way that favors investments on the cat bond end of the spectrum. “In our experiment, the test subjects selected stocks that generated the highest returns on the greatest number of days. The overall total of the returns had only an ancillary effect.” This is what experts refer to as the “frequent winner effect”.
To demonstrate the weight of this effect, the data on the stock returns was modified in a second experimental design in such a way that the “lottery-like” investments more frequently showed the higher yields, which quickly shifted the test subjects’ preference towards this type of stock.
Gaining a better understanding of the stock market
What are the possible conclusions of the study? “If we want to predict how the stock market will perform, we also need to consider how people go about finding information,” says Olschewski. “Whether they simply research a single stock or compare two or three options.”
Being able to predict things like this is important for economists or analysts who want to predict price trends on the stock market. But it is also important for social resources planning – for instance, in the case of governments investing for the benefit of their citizens. After all, the Swiss pension system is partially invested in the capital market, as the researcher points out.
Oral Cholera Vaccine to be manufactured by Biological E. Limited for India and international markets
March 20, 2024, SEOUL, Republic of Koreaand HYDERABAD, India — The International Vaccine Institute (IVI), an international organization with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health, today announced that it has commenced a technology transfer of simplified Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV-S) to Biological E. Limited (BE), a leading India-based Vaccines and Pharmaceutical Company.
Following the signing of a technology license agreement in November last year, IVI has begun providing the technical information, know-how, and materials to produce OCV-S at BE facilities and will continue to support necessary clinical development and regulatory approvals. IVI and BE entered this partnership during an unprecedented surge of cholera outbreaks worldwide and aim to increase the volume of low-cost cholera vaccine in India as well as the global public market.
IVI will complete the technology transfer by 2025 and the oral cholera vaccine will be manufactured for India and international markets by Biological E. Limited.
Dr. Jerome Kim, Director General of IVI, said: “In an era of heightened risk of poverty-associated infectious diseases such as cholera, the world needs a sustainable source of high-quality, affordable vaccines and committed manufacturers to supply them. We are pleased to partner with Biological E., a company with a proven history of making life-saving vaccines accessible globally, to address this supply gap and protect communities from this deadly, though preventable, disease.”
Ms. Mahima Datla, Managing Director, Biological E. Limited, said: “We are glad to be in collaboration with IVI for the manufacture of simplified Oral Cholera Vaccine. Our efforts are aimed to not only combat the disease but to also be part of a sustained legacy of innovation, collaboration, and health stewardship. Together with IVI, we are happy to be shaping a healthier and more resilient future by making this vaccine accessible globally.”
This technology transfer and licensing agreement is the sixth of its kind for IVI, transferring such technology to manufacturers in India, the Republic of Korea, Bangladesh, and South Africa. All these partnerships have led to or seek to achieve, pre-qualification (PQ) from the World Health Organization, a designation that enables global agencies such as UNICEF to procure the vaccine for the global market. BE already has 9 vaccines with WHO PQ in its portfolio, and IVI and BE will pursue WHO PQ for OCV-S as well, following national licensure in India.
Dr. Julia Lynch, Director of IVI’s Cholera Program, said: “The cholera situation is dire, and the availability and use of oral cholera vaccine is an essential part of a multifaceted approach to cholera control and prevention, especially as outbreaks increase and the global vaccine supply remains strained. With more manufacturers like BE entering the market, the future supply situation looks strong. IVI remains committed to ensuring the availability of the oral cholera vaccine and to developing new and improved vaccines that are equally safe, effective, and affordable and made around the world, for the world.”
OCV-S is a simplified formulation of OCV with the potential to lower production costs while increasing production capacity for current and aspiring OCV manufacturers. IVI’s development of OCV-S and ongoing technology transfers are part of an institutional strategy to confront cholera with 3 main goals: 1) Ensure supply of OCV 2) Improve cholera vaccines 3) Support OCV use and introduction. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been supporting IVI’s cholera program since 2000 and is funding this latest technology transfer to BE.
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About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.
IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO), and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that also achieved WHO prequalification in early 2024.
IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, an Africa Regional Office in Rwanda, a Country Office in Austria, and a Country and Project Office in Kenya. IVI additionally co-founded the Hong Kong Jockey Club Global Health Institute in Hong Kong and hosts Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.
About Biological E. Limited
Biological E. Limited (BE), a Hyderabad-based Pharmaceuticals & Biologics Company founded in 1953, is the first private sector biological products company in India and the first pharmaceutical company in Southern India. BE develops, manufactures and supplies vaccines and therapeutics. BE supplies its vaccines to more than 130 countries and its therapeutic products are sold in India, the USA and Europe. BE currently has 8 WHO-prequalified vaccines and 10 USFDA approved Generic Injectables in its portfolio. Recently, BE has received Emergency Use Listing (EUL) from the WHO for CORBEVAX®, the COVID-19 vaccine. Recently, DCGI has approved BE’S 14-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate vaccine.
In recent years, BE has embarked on new initiatives for organizational expansion such as developing specialty injectable products for global markets as a means to manufacture APIs sustainably and developing novel vaccines for the global market.
Does party affiliation affect consumer sentiment and spending intentions after elections?
WILEY
Consumer sentiment generally refers to consumers’ attitudes and expectations about economic conditions. A new analysis published in Economic Inquiry indicates that U.S. party affiliation has a significant effect on consumer sentiment, and that sentiment, in turn, affects spending intentions.
In the study that relied on information dating back to 1991 and focused on data surrounding elections in which the governing party changed, survey respondents from Florida whose party affiliation matched the winning U.S. presidential candidate reported more optimistic views about personal and national economic conditions immediately after the election. In contrast, respondents from Florida whose party affiliation aligned with the losing candidate reported more pessimistic views about the same economic conditions. The study shows that these changes in consumer sentiment affected spending intentions among Floridians.
Spending intentions were also indicative of actual spending. For example, actual spending on durable goods increased more among counties with a larger share of Republican voters following the 2016 presidential election.
“Consumer sentiment measures are considered leading indicators by policymakers and economists, reflecting changes in household spending. We confirm this crucial role and emphasize the importance of partisanship in shaping consumer expectations,” said corresponding author Hector Sandoval, PhD, Director of the Economic Analysis Program at the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
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About the Journal Published since 1962, Economic Inquiryis a highly regarded scholarly journal in economics publishing articles of general interest across the profession. Quality research that is accessible to a broad range of economists is the primary focus of the journal. Join our long list of prestigious authors, including more than 20 Nobel laureates.
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