European Automakers on Edge as Chinese EVs Gain Traction

By ZeroHedge - May 11, 2024

• 
  
• Chinese EVs are projected to reach a 20% market share in Europe by 2027, up from 0.4% in 2019.
• 
  
• European automakers are concerned about losing market share to more affordable Chinese EVs.
• 
  
• Chinese automakers are investing in local factories to build tailored cars for European consumers.

Despite EU investigations and jawboning from within the industry, it looks as though Europe has faced the inevitable: it needs to "face up" to the fact that Chinese EVs have arrived, and probably aren't going anywhere, anytime soon.

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Paris on Sunday to ease trade tensions with a wary Europe. Accompanied by a business delegation focused on the electric vehicle industry, including Envision Group, SAIC Motor, and Xpeng Motors, the visit served as both a shopping trip and networking opportunity, Nikkei reported.

"We want to welcome more Chinese investors to France," President Emmanuel Macron said during the visit. 

As we have been writing about extensively for the last 6 months, the shift to electrification has changed the global auto industry's dynamics, which were once dominated by European brands. Now, China now leads in EV production, compelling European automakers to address the growing Chinese competition

According to Nikkei, with the EU set to ban combustion engines by 2035, China plans to expand exports and production, maintaining a significant lead in affordable EVs.

As consumers shift to EVs, European manufacturers fear losing market share. Chinese brands, which made up only 7.9% of EU's electric vehicle sales in 2023, up from 0.4% in 2019, are projected to reach a 20% market share by 2027, according to Transport & Environment.

Felipe Munoz, senior analyst at JATO Dynamics told Nikkei: "When we're talking about these mass market segments, it's mainly about price ... and when you look at [Chinese brands'] price positioning compared to European rivals, there is always an advantage." 

Gregor Sebastian, a senior analyst at Rhodium Group, told Nikkei Asia: "I don't think in Europe there's the necessary capital at the moment to really do this without China, and on top of that ... in terms of the technology we're also behind China."

Europe remains divided over the potential influx of Chinese EVs. The European Commission has launched an investigation into Chinese EV subsidies, potentially leading to preliminary duties in May and permanent tariffs in November.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently visited Beijing to ease trade relations, advocating for fair competition. While brands like Volkswagen and BMW welcome Chinese investment, others remain cautious. 

Despite concerns, Europe is the largest destination for Chinese EV-related FDI, attracting $7.6 billion in 2023 following $11.8 billion in 2022. Chinese automakers like SAIC and BYD are investing in local factories to build tailored cars for European consumers. Xi Jinping's trip includes a visit to Hungary, where BYD and Great Wall Motor are expanding, and Chery recently announced a joint venture plant in Spain.

"The student has overcome the teacher," Munoz added. He said Chinese cars are now "at the same level or even more in terms of quality, in terms of design, in terms of appeal, and in price."

Recall back in March we wrote about Mercedes CEO slamming the idea of import tariffs on Chinese EVs. 

“Don’t raise tariffs. I’m a contrarian, I think go the other way around: take the tariffs that we have and reduce them," Mercedes-Benz boss Ola Källenius said at the time.

Källenius said that the increased competition would "help Europe’s carmakers produce better cars in the long run" and that government protectionism is "going the wrong way", Financial Times reported this week. 

He called Chinese companies looking to export to Europe a “natural progression of competition and it needs to be met with better product, better technology, more agility.”

“That is the market economy. Let competition play out," he added. “We did not ask for this [probe]. We as companies are not asking for protection, and I believe the best Chinese companies are not asking for protection. They want to compete in the world like everybody else.”

“If we believe protectionism is the thing that gives us long-term success, I believe history tells us that is not the case," he added. “We live in a pragmatic world and realize there are some expectations to the general market economy rule . . . but if we seek our fortune in increased protectionism, we are going the wrong way.”

Recall back in September 2023 we wrote that the EU was opening an investigation into Chinese EV subsidies. 

At the time, we noted that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was taking exception with the fact that "the global market is flooded with cheap Chinese cars". 

By Zerohedge.com

 

Nuclear Energy: The New Geopolitical Battleground

By Haley Zaremba - May 10, 2024, 

• 
  
• Russia's nuclear energy sector continues to generate significant revenue despite sanctions on its fossil fuels.
• 
  
• Western nations are increasingly turning to China for nuclear energy supply chains, strengthening China's economic and geopolitical power.
• 
  
• This transition is part of a broader trend of China's growing influence in the global energy landscape.
• 
  

While the west has had a considerable amount of success imposing energy sanctions on Russia in response to the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russian nuclear sector exports have proven harder to kick. But now, as more western nations get serious about cutting Russia out of their nuclear energy supply chains, they are pushing more and more economic and geopolitical power into the hands of China. 

While it seemed impossible to wean Europe off of Russian oil and natural gas without devastating the economy and dangerously compromising European energy security, the European Union has had remarkable success cutting those ties thanks to a surge in renewable energy production and a very mild winter during the critical transition phase. But the potency of those efforts has been undermined by the continued global reliance on Russian nuclear energy supply chains. 

Russian state-operated nuclear energy firm Rosatom has long been one of the primary exporters of nuclear fuel and uranium enrichment services around the world. European countries including Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Finland, and Bulgaria have increased their imports of Russian nuclear fuel in order to make up for Russian fossil fuels, meaning that they’re still providing significant funding to the Kremlin. The Belladonna think tank estimates that nuclear fuel exports earned over  $739 million for Moscow in the last year alone. Rostatom is also a major source of funding for the construction of new nuclear facilities on a global level. At present, nearly one in five nuclear power plants on the planet is either in Russia or is Russian-built. 

But Russia’s influence in certain nuclear markets appears to be faltering as the nation’s ongoing war in Ukraine compromises its ability to deliver on its projects. Bulgaria has pleaded with the United States to help get out from under Russia’s nuclear thumb, and Hungary seems to be trying to get out as well Rosatom’s Paks II nuclear power plant in Hungary has been delayed and over budget since its earliest planning phases in 2014, but the setbacks have intensified in recent years as Europe’s stance toward the Kremlin and heightened security measures have complicated Russia’s ability to finalize the project.

As Russia continues to spin its wheels on Paks II, Hungary appears to be turning to China to continue its nuclear energy development. China’s President Xi Jinping will be making a stop in Budapest later this week, where he is expected to sign 16 agreements with the Hungarian government, including one which concerns “cooperation covering the entire portfolio of nuclear energy.” This would seem to include Paks II, signaling that Hungary is looking to cut Rosatom out of its nuclear industry.

This is not the first time that nuclear energy has been a ‘geopolitical flashpoint’ between Russia and China. The two economic giants have also been facing off for nuclear dominance in emerging economies, and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where the growth potential for a nuclear power industry is enormous and in dire need of funding to kick off the prohibitively expensive development phase of nuclear power plant planning and construction. But with Moscow’s attention and resources caught up in wartime chaos, China has a clear upper hand.

This potential transition of nuclear energy power and profit toward China is part of a much bigger trend in the global energy landscape. Beijing has been outspending the rest of the world on renewable energy and green infrastructure and manufacturing for years now. Beijing has placed itself at the nexus of global clean energy supply chains, becoming indispensable to growing clean energy sectors in developed nations in Europe and the Americas while simultaneously expanding its energy influence in emerging economies. Filling Russia’s shoes in the global nuclear energy industry is just one more step toward Beijing’s consolidation of power over global energy markets.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com 

Five Countries With the Cleanest Energy Grid Globally

By Felicity Bradstock - May 11, 2024

• 
  
• 
  
• Several countries, including Paraguay, Bhutan, Lesotho, Nepal, and Ethiopia, have made significant strides in transitioning to renewable energy.
• 
  
• Hydropower is a significant source of renewable energy in many of these countries.
• The global race to decarbonize and adopt renewable energy offers promising opportunities for a sustainable future.

Countries around the globe are racing to decarbonise in pursuit of a green transition. Several governments have created national policies to encourage a shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable alternatives, in a bid to achieve their Paris Agreement climate pledges. Yet, some have been more successful than others at transitioning. The countries with the highest proportion of electricity coming from renewable energy are all endowed with abundant natural resources, such as geothermal, hydro, and wind power, and most have relatively small electricity grids. 

The countries with the highest proportion of electricity generation coming from renewable sources are constantly shifting, as governments increase funding to accelerate their states’ green transition. In addition, several countries are producing higher levels of renewable energy to contribute to larger power grids. In 2023, those with the cleanest grids were Paraguay, Bhutan, Lesotho, Nepal, Ethiopia, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Albania, showing that the green transition is not concentrated in any singular region of the world. 

5) Ethiopia: 98.1%

Ethiopia, in the Horn of Africa, produces most of its electricity from renewable resources including hydropower, biomass, solar, wind and geothermal energy. Ethiopia is the biggest producer of hydropower in Africa, with the energy source contributing around three-quarters of the country’s electricity. The Omo-Giber River Basin provides around 45 percent of this hydropower, through three major dams. In recent years, Ethiopia has become increasingly vulnerable to climate change, as long periods of drought have had a detrimental impact on its hydropower production. 

Ethiopia has the potential to generate more than 60,000 MW of electric power from hydroelectric, wind, solar, and geothermal sources. Ethiopia has struggled to tap into its natural energy sources due to a lack of investment in the past. At present, it has 5,200 MW of installed generation capacity, which the government aims to increase to 17,000 MW within the next decade, but there are fears that demand may outpace supply as both the economy and population continue to grow. 

4) Nepal: 98.4%

Nepal derives the vast majority of its electricity from hydropower, at around 97 percent. This is made possible thanks to Nepal’s abundant natural resources, including mountains, glaciers and rivers that provide falling water for hydropower production. Nepal produces around 2,200 MW of hydropower and has the potential to produce an estimated 50,000 MW of hydropower, which would make it one of the world’s biggest producers.

The South Asian country has increased electricity access to its population significantly in recent years, from 19 percent in 2000 to 94 percent in 2023, supported strongly by Chinese investment. 

Nepal continues to rely heavily on biofuels and waste, with around 21 million people continuing to use traditional biomass for cooking. In 2021, biofuels and waste contributed around 67.2 percent of Nepal’s energy mix. 

3) Lesotho: 99.3%

Lesotho in southern Africa produces most of its electricity from hydropower resources, with solar and wind power contributing a small amount of energy, as well as relying on biomass for cooking and heating needs in rural areas. It is home to one of the world’s smallest power grids, with a capacity of just 73 MW.

Around 72 MW of the country’s hydropower comes from the Muela Hydropower plant. The government has approved the development of the Polihali Dam, expected to be operational by 2028, which will add 8 MW of hydropower to the grid. Only around 47 percent of households in Lesotho have access to electricity, and this is mainly in the country’s urban hubs. The government previously announced a plan to expand this coverage to 75 percent of households by 2022, but this has not yet been achieved. 

2) Bhutan: 99.8%

Bhutan in southern Asia also generates most of its electricity from hydropower, around 99.7 percent. Its vast forests have helped the tiny Asian country to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, making it one of three carbon-negative countries worldwide, alongside Suriname and Panama. 

In April 2024, the European Investment Bank (EIB) announced plans to lend $160.2 million to Bhutan to help the country develop its renewable energy sector, including solar and hydropower projects in remote regions. The development of Bhutan’s solar power industry will help the country avoid spending on energy imports during the dry months of the year, as well as support energy diversification. 

1) Paraguay: 100% 

Paraguay has the cleanest power grid in the world, achieving a 100 percent clean electricity supply at the end of 2021. Hydropower contributes 100 percent of the South American country’s electricity supply, with a hydropower output of around 9 GW a year, making it the third-largest hydropower producer globally. Most of this power comes from the Itaipu Dam, which contributes 70 percent of the country’s electricity supply as well as energy exports to neighbouring Brazil.                                                                                 

Despite having already achieved 100 percent clean energy production, Paraguay has plans to diversify its renewable energy mix. Earlier this year, the government passed a law on Non-Conventional Renewable Energies (NCRE), to regulate the promotion, generation, production, development, and use of electric energy from non-conventional renewable energy sources other than hydropower. The Minister of Public Works (MOPC) Claudia Centurión stated, “Through regulation, we can involve the private sector in this generation of electric energy to take giant steps towards innovation and the promotion of new industries that will bring us employment and, above all, more sustainability.”

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com 

Machine Learning Could Make Geothermal Energy More Affordable

By Felicity Bradstock - May 12, 2024, 

Machine learning models can analyze extensive data to determine the best locations for geothermal drilling, reducing exploration costs.

AI-powered drilling technology could make geothermal energy more accessible and cheaper.

Rapid advancements in AI and machine learning technologies are expected to optimize energy operations and drive down costs even further.

As governments and private companies pump funds into research and development, aiming to achieve the innovation needed to advance renewable energy operations, we are seeing greater progress in the global green transition. With major advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and other digital offerings in recent years, some energy experts believe that this technology can now be used to enhance energy production, boosting the potential of the world’s geothermal energy output.

Geothermal energy is a natural form of heat energy that is located within the Earth. There is enough geothermal energy on Earth to meet the world’s energy needs, but accessing this energy can be very challenging. Geothermal energy can be accessed in different ways, the first is direct use, which has been popular for hundreds of years. This involves using heated water near the Earth’s surface, such as from hot springs and geysers, which requires no drilling equipment, and the water or steam can be used to heat buildings close to the source. By contrast, the geothermal energy that is used for electricity production is accessed through drilling. Reservoirs of hot water can be found in various places around the world just a few miles beneath the Earth’s surface. They can be accessed through drilling, allowing steam to be extracted to rotate a turbine, which activates a generator that produces electricity. 

Drilling for geothermal energy remains unpopular due to technological restrictions that mean it can be expensive to explore potential geothermal sites. In addition, hard-to-reach reserves can be extremely difficult to access with existing drilling technology. At present, geothermal energy contributes less than one percent of U.S. electricity, despite the huge potential to tap into this abundant renewable energy source. 

Zanskar, a Utah-based startup, has built machine learning models to assess the optimal locations to drill for geothermal energy. The company’s models analyse extensive data to determine the best locations to drill for geothermal energy, which Zanskar believes will lead to a significant reduction in exploration costs in the coming years. This could encourage more companies to invest in the geothermal sector and help diversify the green energy sector. 

Carl Hoiland, Zanskar’s CEO, stated “We've now discovered more of these hidden geothermal resources in just the past year and a half than the entire industry combined had done over the prior decade.” This demonstrates the huge potential of the new technology and could encourage more energy companies to invest in the sector. This month, Zanskar announced it had raised $30 million in a series B funding round led by Obvious Ventures, which values it at $115 million. To date, Zanskar has raised $45 million in funding, which will contribute to greater exploration and the development of its first power plants. The firm plans to work with existing geothermal companies to develop new sites. 

There is great enthusiasm around the potential for developing the world’s geothermal energy as it could provide an endless renewable resource. However, at present, the cost of project development is around five times that of wind energy, meaning that it is often overlooked. It costs around $8.7 million per megawatt of geothermal-derived electricity. This price is so high largely because drillers often fail to find the correct spot to access reservoirs, meaning they may have to drill multiple holes before being successful if they find it at all before running out of time and money. 

Zanskar uses a vast array of data collected from satellites, geological surveys, the waves that travel through the ground after an earthquake, and other data points, to predict the best spots for drilling. The more data available in a region, the more accurate the machine learning programme can be. This technology could be coupled with other innovations, such as advanced drilling techniques, to make geothermal energy more accessible and therefore cheaper. 

The U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is also developing its AI and machine learning techniques to enhance the production of renewable energy. It has developed a suite of algorithms and tools to improve reservoir characterisation, economise drilling, and optimise geothermal steam field operations. Meanwhile, since 2018, the U.S. Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) has funded early-stage research and development applications in machine learning to develop new technologies for exploration and operational improvements for geothermal resources. 

Rapid advancements in AI and machine learning technologies have enhanced renewable energy operations, and further progress over the coming decades is expected to help optimise energy operations and drive down costs even further. Some of the main deterrents to developing geothermal energy operations could now be a thing of the past, if machine learning algorithms are as accurate as Zanskar and other companies are promising, allowing us to tap into abundant renewable energy sources around the globe. 

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

 

Royal Danish Navy and EMSA Expand North Sea Surveillance with Quadcopter

Unique Quadcopter adds new features to vessel monitoring off Denmark (EMSA)

PUBLISHED MAY 10, 2024 12:56 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

A four-month program is underway in the North Sea to expand monitoring and surveillance operations. The program is being conducted by the Royal Danish Navy and Danish Customs in cooperation with the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) which provides unique airborne capabilities.

During the deployment, the remote craft will carry out maritime surveillance tasks in the busy waters around the north coast of Denmark. The program will provide information on potential oil spills and discharges at sea the partners report. Environmental monitoring is a key aspect of this service. They report the service is complementing the CleanSeaNet satellite-based oil spill and vessel detection service provided by EMSA.

In the past for similar monitoring programs, EMSA has provided drones that are remotely operated. This year, the program is using a new Hybrid Quadcopter for the remotely piloted aircraft system delivered by EMSA through the contractor Nordic Unmanned. It is the first time this model has been deployed in an EMSA remote monitoring operation with the organizations reporting it will provide added capabilities. 

The Aerosonde Hybrid Quadcopter that is being employed has both fixed wing, enabling it to cover long distances, and four propellers, providing it with vertical take-off and landing capabilities. They report the craft can take off and land vertically, like a helicopter but has the same range as the fixed-wing version. Nordic Unlimited highlights that it is runway-independent.

With more than seven hours of endurance and a radio range of 140 km (86 miles) along the coastline, based on a ground relay station, it can carry out extensive maritime surveillance to support the Royal Danish Navy. The RPAS has infrared and optical cameras and is also equipped with an embedded automatic maritime scanning sensor. The craft weighs approximately 100 lbs. with a payload capacity of approximately 15 lbs.

The European Maritime Safety Agency serves the EU’s maritime interests for a safe, secure, green, and competitive maritime sector. Launched several years ago, its Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS) services are offered free to all EU member states to assist in maritime surveillance operations including ship emission monitoring. It can also be used to provide support to traditional coast guard functions, including search and rescue and pollution prevention and response. 

 

Report: Dali Will Move to Baltimore Berth Next Week for Investigators

Picture from May 7 shows the starboard bow is cleared as they set the charges to remove the bridge structure from the port side (USCG photo)

PUBLISHED MAY 10, 2024 2:18 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

Update: The Unified Command reports the controlled demolition has been delayed till Sunday late afternoon due to weather concerns.  After that they plan an inspection of the Dali and possibly dredging before the vessel can be removed to the Baltimore berth.

 

The authorities leading the recovery operation in Baltimore have declined comments on the timeline for the next steps including the removal of the Dali only saying that systematic preparations were underway and that they remain on target to open the full channel by the end of the month. The Baltimore Sun newspaper however is reporting that it obtained an email showing the vessel will be moved to the dock on or about Tuesday, May 14, and handed over to investigators.

The Unified Command alerted the media of a tentative plan subject to weather and other conditions for the controlled demolition of the section of the bridge on the bow of the Dali. It is scheduled for Saturday afternoon with teams then prepared to use the giant claws to remove the sections which should fall into the water around the ship. The goal has been to lighten the forward section of the Dali to refloat the vessel. 

According to the Baltimore Sun, the vessel will be moved to the Seagirt Marine Terminal in the effort to reopen the channel. William Doyle, chief executive of the Dredging Contractors of America reports dredgers will be standing by in case they need to remove mud to free the Dali. 

According to the report in the newspaper, the team from the National Transportation Safety Board is expected to reboard the Dali on May 14 and 15 to continue their investigation. The NTSB has already interviewed the crew and Maryland pilot who was guiding the ship at the time of the allision and has reviewed onboard data. A preliminary report providing an updated statement of the facts is expected to be released in the coming days, possibly shortly after they reboard the vessel.

 

Charges are set (black stripes) for the controlled demolition scheduled for Saturday afternoon (USCG)

 

The Baltimore Sun reports that lawyers and investigators involved in the various lawsuits including one from the City of Baltimore have been told they can schedule visits to the ship after the NTSB. The newspaper reports there will be two groups taken aboard with the vessel available starting May 20.  They are being warned that the bow areas of the vessel may not be accessible as the recovery operation will still be underway.

It is unclear if the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) plans to return to the ship. They boarded the vessel shortly after the incident seizing information. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier in the week that the FBI is involved in an investigation to see if the crew violated a U.S. law from the 1830s which says a ship’s officer or crew can be charged with manslaughter if their negligence or misconduct led to the death of the six road workers who were on the bridge. The paper says the law was passed after a series of steamboat accidents but was invoked as recently as the 2019 dive boat Conception case where a fire killed 34 people off the coast of California.

The U.S. House of Representative's Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure has also scheduled a hearing for May 15 to discuss the federal response to the bridge collapse. They have scheduled witnesses from the U.S. Coast Guard, Army Corps of Engineers, Federal Highway Administration and the NTSB.

With the sections of the bridge removed from the Dali and then the vessel removed from the area, Doyle says dredgers are prepared to complete the task of restoring the channel. Salvage crews will continue to remove the debris from the bridge while this week they recovered the body of the last of the six missing workers from the road crew.

The Port of Baltimore told The Wall Street Journal that it already has requests from about 20 vessels expected at the port in the week following the reopening of the channel. They reported that containerships, car carriers, and bulkers are all scheduling return visits to the port. Two cruise ships that are also scheduled to be sailing from the port are expected to switch back from temporary operations from Norfolk.
 

 

Philippines Seize Japanese Coal Carrier After Loitering for Two Weeks

The vessel's captain admits he was told to delay his arrival but contends the vessel was never a danger to navigation (file photo)

PUBLISHED MAY 9, 2024 6:14 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

The authorities in the Philippines are still trying to figure out what to do about a Japanese-managed coal carrier that they have been detaining for a week. A warrant for seizure and detention was issued on May 3 with the discussions ongoing on how to handle the incident.

The Ohshu Maru (92,000 dwt) is registered in Liberia and operates under charter to companies managed by NYK. The vessel was built in 2011 and operates as a coal carrier.

According to the information developed by the Philippines’ Bureau of Customs, the bulker was spotted idle in the southern Philippines around April 22. The ship failed to report in to the authorities within 24 hours to declare its intentions as required by law.  They are now also contending that the Philippine Coast Guard was unable to establish radio communication with the vessel.

On May 1, a team comprised of the Bureau of Customs’ Customs Intelligence and Investigation Service, the Philippine Navy, the Philippine Coast Guard, and the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency boarded the vessel. Under the suspicion of smuggling, they ordered the vessel searched. Pictures show dog teams on the vessel.

 

No contraband was found during the search (BoC)

 

The authorities admit that no contraband was found on the ship and it appears all its paperwork was in order. The captain offered an explanation reporting that the vessel was bound for the Japanese port of Kinuura when he was told by the charterer to find a safe place to drift in the Philippine Sea. He said he had been told to delay his arrival in Japan and issued a formal letter of apology to explain why his vessel was in Philippine waters.

The authorities however moved ahead with the action getting the warrant of seizure and detention on May 3. They are contending that a review of Vessel Tracking System records shows the Ohshu Maru turned off its AIS transmission while it was in Malaysia. They allege the vessel was without a signal, i.e. operating dark, for at least a day and eight hours before entering Philippine waters.

The crew of the bulker responds that they never endangered any other vessels in the area. They report the ship was never permitted to come close to other vessels in the area of the Bohol Sea where they were drifting.

The Philippine Bureau of Customs ordered that the vessel be moved to an anchorage on the northern side of Mindanao, where the ship remains. They also requested that the Navy and Coast Guard place the vessel under continuous monitoring. It is unclear what the law prescribes as the possible penalty for a foreign ship failing to register its arrival in the Philippines.

 

Momentum is Building for Ammonia as Technology Matures

Strong demand is driving development but emissions issues remain

PUBLISHED MAY 12, 2024 12:47 PM BY RENÉ SEJER LAURSEN

 

 

Demand for ammonia is being transformed by the energy transition. Until recently used as an input for fertilizer and chemical products, new markets for green and blue ammonia are emerging, replacing coal in power generation, in green steel production and as a marine fuel.

Today some 200 million tonnes per annum is produced worldwide, with 20 million transported in LPG carriers. The scale of the emerging and potential demand will see these figures rise; how quickly this can be achieved will determine its take-up within shipping.

The interest in ammonia stems both from its zero emissions when used as fuel and because its production isn’t dependent on biogenic carbon sources. As the global economy transitions away from fossil-based fuels, biogenic carbon – from captured CO2, electrolysis and even waste sources – will be subject to increasing competition from different industries.

Biogenic carbon will increasingly replace fossil-based carbon in many of the products in use today in industry and consumer goods. Competition from the energy and aviation sectors will inevitably lead to increased prices but production capacity will need to come from industrial sources rather than biomass harvested for this purpose.

The rise of ammonia also creates potential for green hydrogen as a fuel. But because ammonia is significantly cheaper to transport over long distances – and considering the loss of energy when hydrogen is turned into ammonia via the Haber-Bosch process – it seems likely that a majority of hydrogen will be produced by cracking green ammonia at the location where the hydrogen will be consumed.

Ammonia Production

To realize large-scale production of green ammonia to serve new markets, its production capacity, along with that of renewable electricity and green hydrogen, will need to grow tremendously. The current global installed capacity of wind and solar farms and especially the electrolyzers needed to produce the necessary green hydrogen for ammonia production, are dwarfed by the required capacity needed.

Renewable electricity for electrolysis will need to be produced at locations around the globe that have favorable conditions for wind and solar energy generation and also have large land areas available. Those locations tend to be in remote areas; locations such as Western Australia, Chile, West Africa, Oman and Saudi Arabia are the areas that are expected to dominate production. Ammonia needs to be shipped from these locations to demand centers, in the first instance North/East Asia and Europe. 

Current projections for the growth in global production indicate there will be enough renewable electricity to produce the volumes of green ammonia needed for the maritime fleet alone by 2040. However, because shipping will also be competing with many other industries for both the renewable electricity and green hydrogen necessary to produce ammonia, as well as with other sectors that depend on the consumption of green ammonia such as agriculture and coal-fired power plants, supply is expected to be constrained.

Propulsion Technology

The first tests have been performed using ammonia as fuel in combustion engines by several of the main engine manufacturers. The tests have been very promising and no showstoppers have been discovered for the use of ammonia as a combustion fuel in internal combustion engines.

Though the amount of pilot fuel and levels of NOx, NH3 slip and N2O emissions have yet to be quantified for the commercial marine engines, marine engine makers generally agree that the Diesel cycle is best suited for combustion of ammonia

Research is ongoing for both diesel and Otto cycle combustion concepts. Optimizing emissions reductions is foreseen as a challenge, and control of N2O and ammonia slip requires high-temperature combustion, which also generates high NOx levels. Tests on two-stroke engines have shown that NOx is less of a problem using the Diesel cycle combustion principle when burning ammonia. When ammonia is injected into the combustion chamber, it expands and generates a cooling effect that removes the high peak temperatures in the combustion zones that generated the high NOx.

Pilot fuel is necessary to ignite ammonia and it is also needed to keep combustion stable. For smaller four-stroke engines, 10% pilot fuel is required once engine optimization has been completed and after the engine is in service. For large two-stroke engines using Diesel cycles, just 5% pilot fuel is required, and some engine makers expect that this amount can be further reduced.

Assessing Emissions

The actual amount of NH3 and N2O emissions is therefore still to be accurately assessed, however, emissions are expected to be low, particularly for the diesel combustion cycle. Even so, with N2O having a 20-year global warming potential (GWP) of 264 and a 100-year GWP of 265 according to IPCC 2013-ARS, the emitted levels may negate much of the CO2 benefit of using ammonia as a fuel. This remains a significant potential barrier to adoption.

Two-stroke marine engine designers have, however, found in their tests that N2O level are low - in the same range as we see for other fuels including marine diesel, LNG and methanol. Overall it seems that the diesel combustion principle is ideal for use of ammonia since the temperature in the combustion chamber hits a ‘sweet spot’ where the NOX, N2O and ammonia slip levels are recorded at a very low level. It is therefore expected that those engines will be able to operate to IMO NOx Tier II standards without any need for an abatement system.

As of Q1 2024, the main marine engine makers have the following development plans and lead times for ammonia fuelled engines:

• Two-stroke ammonia dual fuel engines covering power ranges from 5 MW to 31 MW. These engines will be available for delivery starting from Q4 2024/Q1 2025.
• Four-stroke ammonia engines as dual fuel gensets engines are also becoming available. Two engine manufacturers will launch this type of engine at the end of 2024 or beginning of 2025.

Safety and exhaust treatment

Most engine designers expect that exhaust gas after-treatment will be needed to comply with the IMO NOx Tier III standard, and all of them expect to specify selective catalytic reduction (SCR) as the preferred means of cleaning the exhaust gas after it has left the combustion chamber, rather than exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) which changes the combustion conditions thereby limiting NOX formation. The EGR is reducing the amount of oxygen in the intake air, and the fear is that this will have a very negative impact on the performance of ammonia combustion, but this is still to be investigated.

In addition to main engines and gensets operating on ammonia, designs are also emerging for auxiliary engines required to complete the transition to vessels running on ammonia. Boilermakers are preparing dual-fuel boilers for use with ammonia as fuel to be able to generate steam and heat from burning ammonia. 

Working with ammonia onboard on a day-to-day basis requires a solution to collect ammonia vapor in a safe manner. This vapor will be released in case of a normal engine stop if the piping system needs to be purged or in case of a malfunction somewhere in the fuel supply system.

Different solutions for vapor handling are under development from several manufacturers, including water scrubber designs that can remove ammonia vapor from the purge air. In this solution, ammonia vapor is stored in dedicated tanks as a water-ammonia solution. However, this approach would require dedicated infrastructure at the port to receive and store it.

All those systems described above are being prepared for newbuilding projects for different ship types and the expectation is that we will see those systems in service by the end of 2025/beginning of 2026. We estimate that approximately 50-70 ships are under order as of April 2024.

René Sejer Laursen is the Director Fuels & Technology at American Bureau of Shipping (ABS).

 

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.