Sunday, May 26, 2024

Democratizing air quality data at nearly no cost

by Kaitlyn Landram, Carnegie Mellon University

Due to the high cost of air quality monitors, many countries don't have the tools in place to regularly monitor pollutants. Without routine measurements, policymakers cannot make evidence-based policy decisions to reduce fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and improve human health.

To combat this problem, Albert Presto, a research professor of mechanical engineering, has identified a low-cost way to quantify black carbon in PM2.5 using glass-fiber filter tapes that are already collected by select U.S. embassies around the world.

"For this project, we started with the Global South, because in Africa the need for air quality data is the greatest," Presto said.

The team collected tapes from U.S. embassies in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Ethiopia and compared their particulate matter to that collected from a site in Pittsburgh. Their paper is posted to the preprint server ChemRxiv.

To test air quality, the researchers used a cell phone camera to photograph the filter spots on the tape on top of a custom-designed reference card. By applying an image processing algorithm to each photo, they could extract the red scale value of the photo.

This value allows them to identify the air's black carbon concentration during the hour of the day that the filter was collected.

Using this method, researchers can get a better understanding of pollutant sources. Black carbon is considered a short-term climate forcer because of the way it absorbs light and consequently warms the atmosphere. For example, if deposited on a glacier, the glacier will melt faster.

Credit: Carnegie Mellon University

The study's findings underlined the need for more air quality monitoring in developing countries. The black carbon PM2.5 levels in the sub-Saharan African countries were as much as four times higher than those collected in Pittsburgh.

"Our process is a new way to think about low-cost analysis," Presto said. "Because the tapes are already being collected, the marginal cost for our analysis is near zero. This method can democratize air quality data because there are plenty of groups that can collect tapes from other embassies and do their own analysis for practically no cost."

Presto is eager to work with more embassies and explore what else his team can learn from the tapes. They are currently exploring a new way to extract the filters in a solvent to uncover exactly what else the PM2.5 is composed of throughout the day.

"There's growing work in monitoring air quality from outer space, but to do that we need data collected on the ground to validate the findings," he said. "Using this method, we can likely grow the number of locations where we can compare the satellite's measurement to data on the ground. We can also make more data available to countries around the world."

More information: Abhishek Anand et al, Low-Cost Hourly Ambient Black Carbon Measurements at Multiple Cities in Africa, ChemRxiv (2024). DOI: 10.26434/chemrxiv-2024-6srm4

Provided by Carnegie Mellon University Unraveling the impact of edge cracks on superconducting REBCO tapes: A leap in material durability and efficiency

Video: Fireball witnessed by weather satellite

by European Space Agency

While a meteor lit up the skies over Spain and Portugal recently, it was also captured by the Meteosat Third Generation Imager weather satellite hovering 36,000 km away in geostationary orbit.

On 18 May, the meteor burned up in the night sky over Spain and Portugal—not only impressing those lucky enough to see it with their own eyes, but it was also caught by the fireball camera in Cáceres, Spain, operated by ESA's Planetary Defense Office.

And zooming across the skies at over 160,000 km an hour, it was also captured by the Lightning Imager on the Meteosat Third Generation Imager satellite far away in geostationary orbit, offering another perspective on this remarkable event.

As its name implies, the Lightning Imager will be used to detect lightning, once it has been fully commissioned following the satellite's launch at the end of 2022.

The Meteosat Third Generation Imager satellite is the first geostationary weather satellite that has the capability to detect lightning across Europe, Africa and the surrounding waters. It continuously monitors more than 80% of the Earth disk for lightning discharges, taking place either between clouds or between clouds and the ground.

The instrument has four cameras covering Europe, Africa, the Middle East and parts of South America. Each camera can capture up to 1000 images per second and will continuously observe lightning activity from space.

Data from the Lightning Imager will give weather forecasters greater confidence in their predictions of severe storms, particularly in remote regions and on the oceans where lightning detection capabilities are limited.

Although designed to monitor lightning, it also captured the flashes of light from the meteor burning up over Spain and Portugal.

Using preliminary data from the Lightning Imager, the animation above shows light flashes accumulated over six seconds as the meteor moves across the instrument's field of view.

The Meteosat Third Generation mission is a cooperation between Eumetsat and ESA. ESA is responsible for developing and procuring six satellites. Eumetsat defines the system requirements, develops the ground systems, procures the launch services, operates the satellites, and makes the data available to users.

The Meteosat Third Generation satellites are built by a large consortium of European industries, led by Thales Alenia Space in cooperation with OHB. The innovative Lightning Imager is developed by Leonardo in Italy.

Provided by European Space Agency

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Video: European satellite captures lightning strikes

Researchers reconstruct genome of extinct species of flightless bird that once roamed the islands of New Zealand

by Bob Yirka , Phys.org

A team of evolutionary biologists at Harvard University, working with colleagues from the Max Planck Institute for Biological Intelligence, East Carolina University, Osaka University and the University of Toronto, has reconstructed the genome of an extinct species of flightless bird that has come to be known as the little bush moa.

In their study, published in the journal Science Advances, the group sequenced DNA recovered from a fossilized bone found on South Island (the largest and southernmost of the two main islands that make up New Zealand).

The little bush moa was once one of the biggest birds in the world—about the size of a modern turkey, they went extinct shortly after the arrival of human settlers in New Zealand. Prior to that, they roamed the forested islands of New Zealand for millions of years. They were unique due to a complete lack of wings. Prior partial sequencing has shown that they had the genes needed to grow wings, but over time, they had mutated as the birds slowly became flightless land dwellers.

The fossil used by the research team came from a bird that was one of what are believed to be nine species of extinct Anomalopteryx didiformis. The team describes their results as the recovery of a complete mitochondrial genome of a male moa nuclear genome—a feat that was deemed challenging.

After sequencing, the researchers discovered that the birds had been able to see in the ultraviolet spectrum—an ability that would have helped them capture hiding prey. They also had what the group describes as a sensitivity to bitter foods—a trait common in modern birds. The data also showed that the likely population of the birds had once been as high as 240,000 and that the birds diverged from their closest relatives approximately 70 million years ago.

The research team suggests that in addition to providing new information on the little bush moa, their results should also function as a new resource for other teams working to better understand avian evolution.

More information: Scott V. Edwards et al, A nuclear genome assembly of an extinct flightless bird, the little bush moa, Science Advances (2024). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adj6823

Journal information: Science Advances

California bill to protect children from lead exposure advances to Senate

SACRAMENTO, Calif. – On May 21, California Assembly lawmakers passed a bill to safeguard children’s health from the lasting and devastating effects of lead exposure through drinking water, an urgent threat in the state.

Assembly Bill 1851, by Assemblymember Chris Holden (D-Pasadena), would enact a goal of zero lead in school and childcare drinking water. It also would set up a state-funded pilot program to test for, and clean up, lead in drinking water in up to 10 school districts. The program would identify strategies schools can use to bring water lead levels to as close to zero as possible.

The Environmental Working Group and Children Now are co-sponsoring the bill, which now heads to the Senate for consideration.

Lead is a potent neurotoxin that can permanently harm children’s intellectual development and affect their behavior and ability to concentrate. Even in tiny amounts, it can lower a child’s IQ, slow growth and harm hearing. Studies show lead’s harm cannot be reversed and there is no safe level of exposure to it.
Lead testing

Holden’s bill, if enacted, would create a state goal of zero lead in school and childcare facilities’ drinking water, help identify and clean up any faucets on campuses that release lead above 5 parts per billion, or ppb, and identify the most health-protective, cost-effective methods of sampling and removing lead in school drinking water.

“Lead consumption among youth and disenfranchised communities occurs at a higher rate. Assisting schools with the resources and appropriate standards to ensure the water our children drink is safe will help us protect our schools, students and communities,” said Holden.

“Children do not become more resistant to lead’s toxic effects once they transition from daycare to kindergarten, so California should take the responsible step of aligning child care and school lead testing standards,” he added.

Holden has long championed drinking water safety. He authored a law in 2018 requiring licensed child care centers in the state to test their tap water for lead contamination.

The results of those tests, released last year, revealed alarming levels of lead. The drinking water in nearly 1,700 licensed child care centers statewide – one in four – topped 5 ppb, the allowable threshold in California.

Over 260 centers found levels between 50 and 1,000 ppb – 50 to 200 times the state’s limit. One center found levels as high as 11,300 ppb, a staggering 2,200 times the limit.
Irreversible damage

Because of the lifelong serious health harms linked to childhood lead exposure, the American Academy of Pediatrics recommends lead in drinking water not exceed 1 ppb.

"Even in minuscule amounts, lead can irreversibly damage young minds and bodies, leading to developmental delays, cognitive disorders and lifelong health complications,” said Susan Little, EWG senior advocate for California government affairs.

“We must act swiftly to protect our children from the devastating effects of lead exposure, which can rob them of their potential and inflict a lifetime of suffering,” she said. “Lead is not just a neurotoxin; it's a ticking time bomb that threatens our kids' health and well-being.”

“Lead exposure is a health, education and racial justice issue for our kids,” said Ted Lempert, president of Children Now, a statewide children’s advocacy organization. “We thank Assemblymember Holden for authoring this legislation to protect students from lead in drinking water, and we are pleased to partner with EWG to co-sponsor the bill.

“Children Now is committed to ensuring that schools have the support and resources they need to keep kids safe,” said Lempert.

###

The Environmental Working Group is a nonprofit, non-partisan organization that empowers people to live healthier lives in a healthier environment. Through research, advocacy and unique education tools, EWG drives consumer choice and civic action. Visit www.ewg.org for more information.

Children No is a non-partisan, whole-child research, policy development and advocacy organization dedicated to promoting children’s health, education and well-being in California. The organization also leads the Children’s Movement of California, a network of over 4,800 direct service, parent, youth, civil rights, faith-based and community groups dedicated to improving children’s well-being. Learn more at https://www.childrennow.org

Healthy candy bars? How ‘whole-fruit chocolate’ could revolutionize sweet

by StudyFinds Staff

ZÜRICH, Switzerland — Chocolate is one of life’s greatest pleasures, but it’s a treat that often comes with a side of guilt. Conventional chocolate is high in sugar and saturated fat, which can contribute to health issues like obesity and heart disease. On top of that, the environmental impact of cocoa production is a growing concern, with deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions threatening the sustainability of this beloved indulgence. But what if there was a way to enjoy chocolate that was not only healthier but also kinder to the planet?

Enter the “whole-fruit chocolate” developed by a team of researchers in Switzerland. This innovative creation makes use of the entire cocoa pod, including parts that are usually discarded, to create a chocolate that boasts improved nutritional value and a lower environmental footprint.

In conventional chocolate production, only cocoa beans are used, while the pulp and husk typically being thrown away or used as fertilizer. The research, published in Nature Food and led by Kim Mishra from the Institute of Food, Nutrition, and Health at ETH Zürich, saw an opportunity to turn this waste into a valuable ingredient.

The key to their approach is a gel made from the cocoa pod husk and pulp. The husk, or endocarp, is dried and ground into a powder, while the pulp is pressed for its juice and then concentrated. The two components are then combined and heated to form a gel that can be mixed with cocoa mass to create the final chocolate product

The illustration shows the utilization of the entire cocoa fruit. (Illustration: Kim Mishra)

The resulting whole-fruit chocolate has some impressive nutritional benefits. The gel replaces traditional sugar from sugar beets, reducing the overall sugar content. The husk powder also adds dietary fiber, which is lacking in conventional chocolate. Additionally, whole-fruit chocolate has a lower amount of saturated fatty acids compared to traditional chocolate candies.

However, the benefits don’t stop there. A life cycle assessment conducted by the researchers shows that large-scale production of whole-fruit chocolate could significantly reduce land use and global warming potential compared to the average dark chocolate produced in Europe. This is because the whole-fruit approach makes use of parts of the cocoa pod that would otherwise go to waste, resulting in a more efficient use of resources.

The researchers also highlight the potential socio-economic benefits for cocoa-producing regions. By creating value from previously discarded parts of the cocoa pod, farmers could diversify their income streams and reduce their reliance on cocoa bean sales alone. The whole-fruit chocolate production process also presents opportunities for technology transfer and capacity building in these communities.

White Pulp Of Yellow Cocoa Pod — This innovative chocolate-making process makes use of the entire cocoa pod, including parts that are usually discarded (Credit: CoreRock/Shutterstock)

Of course, taste is king when it comes to chocolate, and the researchers didn’t neglect this crucial factor. A sensory evaluation comparing whole-fruit chocolate to conventional dark chocolate found that the new formulation was just as sweet to taste testers despite having a lower sugar content. The increased fiber content and reduced saturated fat didn’t seem to detract from the enjoyment of the chocolate.

As with any new food innovation, there are still some hurdles to overcome before whole-fruit chocolate can hit the shelves. The current production process is energy-intensive, particularly the drying of the cocoa pod husk. However, the researchers are confident that efficiency improvements and the use of renewable energy could make the process more sustainable at scale.

“Although we’ve shown that our chocolate is attractive and has a comparable sensory experience to normal chocolate, the entire value creation chain will need to be adapted, starting with the cocoa farmers, who will require drying facilities,” says study author Kim Mishra in a media release. “Cocoa-fruit chocolate can only be produced and sold on a large scale by chocolate producers once enough powder is produced by food processing companies.”

StudyFinds Editor-in-Chief Steve Fink contributed to this report.

Did Hannibal’s Army Burn Down This Ancient Mountain Settlement?

In a scorched village in Spain, archaeologists discovered a hidden gold earring that suggests residents foresaw a coming attack around the time of the Second Punic War

Christian Thorsberg
Daily Correspondent

May 22, 2024

This gold earring found at an Iron Age archaeological site had been stashed inside a pottery jar, which sits behind it. Marco Ansaloni

A single gold earring—measuring less than an inch in both width and length—has provided historians with intriguing new insight into an ancient conflict.

Archaeologists excavated the remains of an Iron Age settlement called Tossal de Baltarga, located in the Pyrenees mountains in Spain, that was destroyed by fire around 2,200 years ago. Alongside discoveries of scorched artifacts and organic remains, the team found the earring—which was stealthily hidden inside a small protective jar and stashed within the wall of a wooden house.

Among other clues, the hidden valuable suggests the community’s fiery end was not accidental—and residents knew the destruction was coming, per the authors of a study of the artifacts published last week in the journal Frontiers in Environmental Archaeology.

And based on the timing of the blaze, researchers suggest the devastation could have occurred at the hands of Hannibal’s Carthaginian forces as they moved through the region during the Second Punic War between Carthage and Rome.

“The destruction was dated around the end of the third century B.C.E., the moment where the Pyrenees were involved in the Second Punic War and the passage of Hannibal’s troops,” Oriol Olesti Vila, an archaeologist at the Autonomous University of Barcelona and lead author of the study, says in a statement. “It is likely that the violent destruction of the site was connected to this war.”

An artist's reconstruction of "Building G." Francesc Riart

In a two-story building at the site—dubbed “Building G”—archaeologists uncovered seeds, fruits, charcoal, an iron pickaxe and more than 1,000 pottery fragments. On the first floor, they found evidence for a livestock stable, with remains of four sheep, a goat and a horse. The team identified spinning, weaving and cooking equipment on the second floor.

Each of these elements offers a glimpse into the lives of the Cerretani, the local tribe likely to have inhabited the community. For example, they might have pursued a variety of economic endeavors, including weaving wool, producing textiles, cultivating grain, rearing livestock and cooking. Eight culinary vessels were found in near-complete condition, and analysis suggests that some were acquired via trade from other parts of the Iberian Peninsula. The building’s inhabitants were probably wealthier than their neighbors and were possibly aristocrats, given that they had a horse, which was a sign of the elite.

Fragments of a pickaxe found in Building G. Oriol Olesti Vila et al.

But the carefully hidden earring suggests the community might have been living in fear. Being located in the mountains, the Cerretani likely had a clear view of the passageways Hannibal’s army may have taken through the Pyrenees on the way to Rome. The researchers hypothesize that the residents—upon seeing the incoming troops—evacuated in a hurry. They may have stashed their valuables away, in case they returned, but perhaps they ran out of time and were forced to leave their livestock behind, Olesti Vila tells Discover magazine’s Paul Smaglik. No human remains were found in the house.

Archaeologists found the gold earring inside a pot, hidden in a wall of a home that was burned down. Marco Ansaloni

“These valleys were an important territory economically and strategically. We know that Hannibal passed the Pyrenees fighting against the local tribes,” Olesti Vila says in the statement. “It is likely that the violent destruction of the site was connected to this war. The general fire points to [human-made] destruction, intentional and very effective—not only Building G, but all the buildings of the site, were destroyed.”

Still, Olesti Vila stresses to CNN’s Mindy Weisberger that the connection to Hannibal remains a hypothesis. Regardless, his team’s discovery points to some kind of ancient conflict.

“[The occurrence of raids and pillaging] is well attested archaeologically, and need not be associated with a specific historic event like Hannibal’s campaigns,” Bettina Arnold, an anthropologist at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee who was not involved in the research, tells CNN.

Meet 2 ‘Freaky Frogs’ Of South America—They’ll Kill You With A Headbutt

Scott Travers
Contributor
I write about the world of biology.
May 22, 2024

If you thought the poison dart frog was a scary animal, think again. These two frog species take ... [+]BY RENATO AUGUSTO MARTINS - OWN WORK, CC BY-SA 4.0, HTTPS://COMMONS.WIKIMEDIA.ORG/W/INDEX.PHP?CURID=58767596

Lancehead pit vipers are one of the most feared snakes in South America. Their reputation is well-deserved; data suggests that they kill more people than any other American reptile.

However, two unique frogs of Brazil–Bruno’s casque-headed frog and Greening’s frog–have venom quotients that far exceed the deadliness of South American pit vipers. While they aren’t as aggressive as some other venomous animals of the Amazon, they are every bit as deadly–perhaps more so. Here’s what sets these frogs apart as true assassins of the animal kingdom.

Bruno’s Casque-Headed Frog And Greening’s Frog Are Venomous And Poisonous

There are plenty of venomous creatures in the animal kingdom. There are also plenty of poisonous creatures. However, it is exceptionally rare to find a species that is both venomous and poisonous.

The tiger keelback snake, shown here, is one of the rare "venomous-poisonous" animals of the world.

One such example is the tiger keelback snake of east Asia. The tiger keelback secretes a “bufadienolide” poison through its neck glands to ward off predators. Interestingly, it acquires this potent chemical cocktail by eating poisonous toads. It is also rear-fanged venomous. A bite from the tiger keelback induces symptoms such as persistent bleeding from the site of the bite, blood in the urine, body bruising, bleeding gums, and disruptions in blood clotting. In rare cases, a bite from the tiger keelback can be lethal.

Bruno’s casque-headed frog and Greening’s frog are two other species that belong to this rare class of venomous-poisonous animals. Many frogs of the Amazon are poisonous. The difference between poisonous frogs (for example, the poison dart frog) and venomous-poisonous frogs (like Bruno’s casque-headed frog and Greening’s frog) is that the latter two have evolved sharp spines on their skull that can inject venom into animals via a rapid headbutting motion.

In other words, while most poisonous frogs are only dangerous if you touch or ingest them, these two frogs are capable of attacking and envenomating you, as well as being poisonous to the touch. It’s this added layer of defense that sets them apart.

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Here’s more detail on these one-of-a-kind species.
Bruno’s Casque-Headed Frog

Steer clear of the long snout of this Bruno’s casque-headed frog (Aparasphenodon brunoi). It won't ... [+]BY RENATO AUGUSTO MARTINS - OWN WORK, CC BY-SA 4.0, HTTPS://COMMONS.WIKIMEDIA.ORG/W/INDEX.PHP?CURID=58767596

Bruno’s casque-headed frog (Aparasphenodon brunoi) belongs to the Hylidae family and is native to the southeastern coast of Brazil, east of the Brazilian Highlands. Its habitats include subtropical or tropical moist lowland forests, shrublands, and freshwater marshes.

Bruno’s casque-headed frog is relatively large, with males typically measuring 1.9 to 2.4 inches in snout-to-vent length, with females being slightly larger. It possesses a broad, flattened head with a long, pointed snout, prominent forward-facing eyes, sharp projections on the head, and skin fused to the skull. Its legs are long and slender, with adhesive discs on the digits. Its dorsal surface displays pale brown or gray coloration with irregular dark markings.

As mentioned, the venom of Bruno’s casque-headed frog is exceptionally potent, estimated to be 25 times more toxic than that of Brazil’s deadly lancehead pit vipers.
Greening’s Frog

A nineteenth century drawing of Corythomantis greeningi, commonly known as Greening's frog.

BY BOULENGER, G.A. - BOULENGER, G. A. 1896. DESCRIPTIONS OF NEW BATRACHIANS IN THE BRITISH MUSEUM. ANNALS AND MAGAZINE OF NATURAL HISTORY, SERIES 6, 17: 401–406, PUBLIC DOMAIN, HTTPS://COMMONS.WIKIMEDIA.ORG/W/INDEX.PHP?CURID=34513543

Greening’s frog (Corythomantis greening) is a venomous member of the Hylidae family, native to northeastern Brazil. Typically found on vegetation such as bromeliads and rock outcrops, this species breeds in temporary streams. Its name honors Linnaeus Greening, an English naturalist recognized for his studies on arachnids, reptiles, and amphibians.

Greening’s frog is slightly larger than Bruno’s casque-headed frog, with females measuring approximately 3.4 inches and males measuring 2.8 inches. The frog features a narrow head with bony crests behind the eyes and an elongated, flat snout adorned with small spines (which can deliver venom via a headbutting motion). Their bodies are slender and covered in warts. They are typically light brown or gray in color, with red or brown patches. Females tend to be darker than males.

Preferring a semi-arid living environment, Greening’s frog employs various strategies such as seeking shelter in tree hollows and rock crevices to maintain skin moisture and evade predators. During the rainy season, males establish territories near watercourses to attract females for breeding, where females lay several hundred eggs attached to rocks in watercourses.

The frog’s skin secretions contain various low-molecular-mass steroids and alkaloids, exhibiting potent nociceptive effects, which serves as a chemical defense against predation.

CRITICAL RACE THEORY (CRT)

Strange fruit: How Billie Holiday's performance of the anti-lynching song politicized Black consciousness

by University of Chicago

Billie Holiday's recording of the anti-lynching song "Strange Fruit" has stirred and haunted generations of listeners. A new article in the Journal of African American History, titled "Professional Mourning: Billie Holiday's 'Strange Fruit' and the Remaking of Black Consciousness," presents a detailed history of the song and argues that Holiday's rendition, released in the 1930s, brought the Black community together at a moment of unique social and political struggle.

"Between 1877 and 1950," writes the article's author, Samuel Galen Ng, "over four thousand Black people in the United States lost their lives to lynching." By the time Holiday launched her singing career, the number of lynchings per year had decreased, due to the migration of Black people out of the South and a formalized criminal justice system that shifted lynching from a vigilante practice to one "more fully integrated into state operations and a white supremacist social order." Nevertheless, lynching remained a real issue, polarizing U.S. citizens down racial and political lines.

A Jewish teacher named Abel Meeropol published the text of "Strange Fruit" as a poem in 1937. White leftists adapted it to music, but Holiday—a 23-year-old Black jazz singer—made the song famous. Holiday's arrangement of the piece brought it to a slow, dirge-like pace. During live performances, she would hold her body completely still. Audience members who saw Holiday perform the song at venues like Café Society and the Apollo Theater found themselves transformed by the music, and often, implicated in the lyrics. One auditor recalled, "When [Holiday] wrenched the final words from her lips, there was not a soul in that audience, black or white, who did not feel half strangled."

Indeed, Holiday's enactment of the protest song induced a sense of shared mourning and intimacy, particularly among Black listeners. Numerous Black thinkers, Ng avers, have turned to "Strange Fruit" over the years to articulate "an understanding of Blackness as a collectivity demarcated by feelings of shared threat and vulnerability" and to solidify "their commitment to combating anti-Black racism."

Holiday's performance of "Strange Fruit" had particular relevance at the moment of its composition and first recording amid the brutality of lynchings and Jim Crow discrimination. As Ng's article demonstrates, the song continues to speak to its audiences by rendering the violence its lyrics evoked as something that lingers "indelibly strange."

More information: Samuel Galen Ng, Professional Mourning: Billie Holiday's "Strange Fruit" and the Remaking of Black Consciousness, The Journal of African American History (2023). DOI: 10.1086/726667

Provided by University of Chicago

Lynchings of the past affect health today

Study: Grocery shopping habits prove credit worthiness, aiding those without credit history

by Shannon Roddel, University of Notre Dame

supermarket meat — Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

Recent advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning, coupled with the evolution of large-scale data storage, access and processing technologies, have fueled interest among financial institutions in new data sources for credit scoring.

Examples of these new sources include bill payment histories for phone, utility and streaming services; transaction records from checking, savings and money market accounts; and rent payment histories. The motive is twofold—pursuit of profit, including generating new accounts, and improving social welfare by extending credit access to those who lack traditional credit scores.

New research from the University of Notre Dame shows that repeated trips to the grocery store may be all that's necessary to prove creditworthiness.

The paper titled "Using Grocery Data for Credit Decisions" is forthcoming in Management Science from Joonhyuk Yang, assistant professor of marketing at Notre Dame's Mendoza College of Business, along with Jung Youn Lee from Rice University and Eric T. Anderson from Northwestern University. A working paper is available in the SSRN Electronic Journal.

The team partnered with a multinational conglomerate operating in multiple cash-reliant, developing countries in Asia and Africa. The data sponsor owns a credit card issuer and a large-scale supermarket chain, which enabled the researchers to merge data from the two domains and observe the behaviors of 30,089 consumers.

They began by transforming the raw data into a more effective set of inputs and removed signals of credit risk from grocery data.

"Our approach was motivated by our conversation with the manager of the data sponsor, who said, 'To work with these huge data sets, you need a strategy for summarizing the key pieces of data into meaningful variables. A naive approach of simply throwing all our data at this problem without any structure is unlikely to work,'" Yang said.

"This remark resonates with another comment made by a manager at one of the leading banks in the U.S. with whom we spoke. The manager mentioned that the major obstacle to utilizing large-scale, granular consumer data in the making of loans is not a lack of access to such data, but rather a lack of knowledge on how to leverage them efficiently."

Repeated grocery shopping habits point to signals of credit risk.

Buying cigarettes or energy drinks is associated with a higher likelihood of missing credit card payments or defaulting, while purchasing "good" or healthy groceries, including fresh milk or vinegar dressings, is linked to consistently paying credit card bills on time.

"Guided by an extensive body of literature on habits, we construct variables that measure the level of consistency, or lack thereof, in what and how customers buy," Yang said. "Grocery data lends itself particularly well to measuring general consumer traits because groceries are non-durable necessities, so consumers make frequent and repeated choices."

What an individual buys can help explain what type of payer they are, even after controlling for various socio-demographic variables and credit scores.

"Using item-level survey ratings, we find suggestive evidence that buying healthier but less convenient food items is predictive of responsible payment behaviors," Yang said. "We also see a positive and robust correlation between consistency in various dimensions of grocery shopping and making timely credit card bill payments."

Cardholders who consistently pay their bills on time are more likely to shop on the same day of the week, spend similar amounts across months and purchase the same brands and product categories.

Through a simulation of hypothetical credit scoring and decision-making processes, the team demonstrates that grocery data can offer informative signals of credit risk, leading to improved credit outcomes for creditworthy individuals and increased profitability for lenders.

For instance, incorporating grocery data substantially improves default predictive accuracy for people without credit scores, resulting in an improvement ranging from 3.11 to 7.66 percentage points.

The study also characterizes conditions under which the use of grocery data adds no incremental value, which can shed light on when lenders might be incentivized to collect, acquire and leverage alternative data.

"Specifically, we find that the incremental benefit of grocery data diminishes sharply as traditional credit scores or relationship-specific credit history becomes available," Yang said. "These findings highlight the potential for financial institutions to utilize grocery data to extend credit to individuals who lack traditional credit scores while demonstrating the limitations of this new data source."

The findings have direct managerial implications for lenders, as using grocery data for credit scoring presents an opportunity to access a vast, untapped market. Lenders can expand their customer base and improve their profitability by extending credit to consumers who are currently unserved or underserved by the traditional credit system.

More information: Jung Youn Lee et al, Buying and Payment Habits: Using Grocery Data to Predict Credit Card Payments, SSRN Electronic Journal (2021). DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3868547

Journal information: Management Science

Provided by University of Notre Dame

Using AI, Mastercard expects to find compromised cards quicker, before they get used by criminals

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