Turkey detains 13 pro-Palestine activists accusing Ankara, Baku of ‘complicity in genocide’

ByTurkish Minute
June 3, 2024

Turkish authorities have detained 13 members of a pro-Palestine group following a demonstration in which they accused Azerbaijani energy company SOCAR as well as the Turkish government of “complicity in Israel’s genocide in Palestine,” local media reported over the weekend.

One of the 13 detainees was referred to court on Monday as the prosecutor sought his arrest, while the other 12 were released under judicial supervision, according to local media reports.

The group, called “A Thousand Youths for Palestine,” on Friday stormed the İstanbul office of the state-owned company and covered the building in red paint to symbolize blood. They accused Baku and Ankara of “fueling Israel’s genocide in Palestine” through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which supplies around 40 percent of Israel’s annual crude oil consumption.

“As Israel commits genocide in Palestine for nine months, Azerbaijan and Turkey are complicit by transporting millions of barrels of oil to fuel this genocide. We will continue to voice our protest and will not allow this bloody trade to continue,” the protesters announced on X.

 

Speaking to the Serbestiyet news website on Sunday, Hüseyin Arif Sarıyaşar, a representative from the pro-Palestine group, said 13 of his friends were detained in morning raids for protesting in front of the SOCAR office, while detention warrants were issued for 16 protestors in total. The group also said on X that some of their female members were subjected to strip-searches following their detention and that all members detained following the SOCAR protest are charged with damage to property and unauthorized entry into someone’s residence or workplace.

 

Meanwhile, a report on Haber Global TV, financed by Anar Aliyev, a SOCAR executive close to the family of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, accused the pro-Palestinian group of collaborating with terrorist organizations and Iranian-backed groups. It described the SOCAR protest as a provocation targeting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s brotherhood with Aliyev.“These attempts, like the previous ones, will surely fail,” the report said.

 

A Thousand Youths for Palestine also gathered in front of the İstanbul Courthouse in Çağlayan on Monday to protest the detention of their fellow protestors. They said, citing lawyers, that the detainees were not given any food or water between Sunday night and 2:00 p.m. on Monday. They held banners reading, “Our pro-Palestinian cause cannot be judged,” “Close the valves [of oil], don’t be a partner in crime” and “Detentions will not deter us, we learned resistance from Palestine.”

 

Another pro-Palestine group called “Direniş Çadırı” (Resistance Tent) expressed support for A Thousand Youths for Palestine, announcing on X that they are organizing a march in the capital of Ankara to make a press statement condemning the detention of the 13 protestors.

 

SOCAR, a state-owned company, has been under scrutiny for its involvement in the BTC pipeline, which transports Azerbaijani crude oil through Turkey to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. From there, the oil is shipped to various destinations, including Israel.

Investigative journalist Metin Cihan highlighted that the BTC pipeline, operated by British Petroleum (BP), supplies around 40 percent of Israel’s annual crude oil consumption. Cihan criticized the terms of the BTC agreement, which obligates Turkey to maintain the oil flow even during conflict, prioritizing oil trade over human rights and national sovereignty.

Despite Turkey’s public condemnation of Israel’s military actions in Gaza and a recent halt to bilateral trade, the BTC pipeline continues to operate.

The binding agreements from 1999 mandate its operation regardless of regional developments. Experts and rights groups have criticized the agreements as “colonialist” for granting BP privileges and imposing obligations on the signatory states, requiring them to relinquish part of their sovereignty to ensure the pipeline’s operation.

The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza has intensified scrutiny of Turkey’s trade practices with Israel. Erdoğan’s government recently restricted exports to Israel, but revelations of continued trade have sparked criticism and raised questions about Turkey’s support for Israel.

Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, which began on October 7 following an unprecedented attack by Hamas, has led to significant casualties and devastation. Turkey, a vocal critic of Israel’s actions, has accused the Israeli government of committing war crimes and genocide in Gaza.

Protestant churches in Turkey highlight rising rights violations

ByTurkish Minute
June 7, 2024

The Association of Protestant Churches in Turkey has released its “2023 Rights Violations Monitoring Report,” highlighting increasing challenges and rights violations faced by the Protestant community throughout the past year, the Stockholm Center for Freedom reported.

The report identifies a worrying rise in hate speech directed at Protestants, documenting an increase in hate speech against Protestants on social media platforms, with local media often contributing to the negative rhetoric.

Protestants continue to face significant obstacles in establishing and maintaining places of worship. The report emphasizes that these barriers severely restrict their ability to practice their faith freely, highlighting the ongoing issue as a critical concern for the community.

The report also reveals an alarming trend in the treatment of foreign Protestant clergy. In 2023, 33 foreign religious leaders were assigned restrictive immigration codes such as N82 (requiring prior permission to enter) and G87 (considered a general security threat), a sharp increase from just two cases in previous years. Including their families, this affected a total of 63 individuals.

“Many of these individuals have lived in Turkey with their families for years, contributing positively to their communities without any criminal records or investigations,” the report states. “Their sudden deportation or entry ban has disrupted family unity and caused considerable distress.”

The US Department of State said in a report released in May 2021 that Ankara continued to limit the rights of non-Muslim religious minorities, especially those not recognized under the government’s interpretation of the 1923 Lausanne Treaty, which includes only Armenian Apostolic Orthodox Christians, Jews and Greek Orthodox Christians.

Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) was criticized in the report for many rights violations, including restricting efforts of minority religious groups to train their clergy and making it difficult for them to open or operate houses of worship and obtain exemptions from mandatory religion classes in schools.

Top court finds no rights violation in deportation of Protestant clergy from Turkey

ByTurkish Minute
June 7, 2024


The Constitutional Court has concluded that Turkey has not committed any rights violations in deportations or entry bans imposed on grounds of a risk to national security that have been experienced by members of the country’s tiny Protestant community.

Dozens of Protestant pastors and their families have been effectively banned from entering Turkey or deported over the past several years based on reports from the country’s National Intelligence Organization (MİT) claiming that they pose a threat to national security.

Some of the pastors were deported or refused entry despite living legally in Turkey for years for simply engaging in missionary activities, attending a Christian conference or a meeting, which are cited as examples of actions threatening the security of Turkey.

Turkish authorities are assigning Christians “N-82 (requiring prior permission to enter)” or G-87 “considered a general security threat” security codes, which are used to label a person as a “threat to public order and security” and effectively function as entry bans to the country.

Some of these Protestants — Australian citizens Benjamin Charles McLure and Nathan James Bradtke; German citizens Helmut Frank and Michael Robert; and US citizen Amanda Jolyn Krause and seven other US citizens — took their cases to the Constitutional Court, filing individual applications claiming that they have been subjected to a violation of their rights in their expulsion from Turkey by cancellation of their residence permits or the imposition of an entry ban.

The applicants claimed that their right to freedom of religion and right to effective remedy were violated.

The applications at the top court were filed after the applicants failed to obtain a decision from local and regional appeals courts in their favor.

The applications, which were filed between 2019 and 2022, were merged by the court under the case name “Amanda Jolyn Krause and others.”

However, the Constitutional Court found no violation of the applicants’ rights, ruling by a majority of votes in February. The decision has just been made public.

According to the court, the applicants did not voice any complaints about the obstacles or discriminatory practices they faced while observing their faith during the time they lived in Turkey, hence their claim about a rights violation was baseless.

The court’s former president, Zühtü Arslan, who retired in April, was among the court members with a dissenting opinion.

The Association of Protestant Churches in Turkey in its “2023 Rights Violations Monitoring Report,” revealed increasing challenges and rights violations faced by the Protestant community throughout the past year.

According to the report, 33 foreign religious leaders were assigned restrictive immigration codes such as N82 and G87 in 2023. Including their families, this affected a total of 63 individuals.

“Many of these individuals have lived in Turkey with their families for years, contributing positively to their communities without any criminal records or investigations,” the report states. “Their sudden deportation or entry ban has disrupted family unity and caused considerable distress.”

It is estimated that there are more than 8,000 Protestants in Turkey, a majority of whom are ethnic Turks who operate some 170 churches or communities, for the most part located in İstanbul, Ankara and İzmir.

Applications filed by members of the Protestant community are also pending at the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR).

Climate change 'feminizing' Malaysian sea turtles | REUTERS

In Malaysia, a group of volunteers are working to move newly laid sea turtle eggs to cooler location, in response to fears that warmer weather is leading to fewer male hatchlings.

Fires in Brazil wetlands surge as drought looms | REUTERS

Fires in Brazil's Pantanal wetlands have surged nearly tenfold so far this year to the highest levels since 2020, when the biome suffered its worst blazes on record.

EU

Emigration narratives: what migrants believe and why it matters

June 7, 2024

Why do some people choose to migrate and some people not? Why are some willing to do so via irregular channels and some unwilling?  Answering these questions allows us to design better interventions to achieve migration policy objectives such as “safe, regular, and orderly migration”. It also helps us answer profound scientific questions using the timeless yet increasingly important case of migration. Given the salience, uncertainty, complexity, risk and novelty of migration—as well as its emotive and valuedriven nature—we can expect narratives to play a powerful and rich role in emigration decisions. This report builds on recent findings and cutting-edge data to investigate the role of narratives in affecting variation in various forms of migration behaviour.

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Emigration narratives: what migrants believe and why it matters

GREEN CAPITALI$M

Harmonizing ESG Principles and Circular Economy Strategies for E-Waste Management in Indonesia

Industrialization, population growth, and the launch of innovative electronic products have posed various challenges in both developed and developing countries.

BYCUT MEDIKA ZELLATIFANNY
JUNE 7, 2024


Industrialization, population growth, and the launch of innovative electronic products have posed various challenges in both developed and developing countries, including Indonesia. One of the main issues is the surge in the number of electrical and electronic equipment that potentially become electronic waste or e-waste. According to the Global E-Waste Monitor 2020 report, electronic waste is the fastest-growing waste stream globally. The primary causes of this are the increasing demand for electrical and electronic equipment, short life cycles, and limited repair options. Indonesia is currently facing significant challenges in managing the growing volume of e-waste, driven by rapid technological advancements and the national consumption of electronic devices.

The Indonesian Telecommunication Statistics report by Central Agency of Statistics (BPS) revealed that household internet usage reached 86.54 percent in 2022, while the percentage of the population owning mobile phones reached 67.88 percent. Admitad, a global network partner company, also reported a 5% increase in electronic product sales in Indonesia in 2023. Another interesting fact is that consumer spending on electronic products increased by 4% (Yunianto, 2023). Consequently, Indonesia has become one of the world’s largest e-waste producers. According to data released by the Global E-Waste Monitor 2024, Indonesia generated approximately 1.9 million tons of e-waste in 2022. However, data from the Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry indicates that only 17.4 percent of electronic waste is properly managed. If not addressed promptly, research by Aulia Qisthi, a PhD Candidate specializing in Recycling Electronic Waste, predicts that e-waste generation in Indonesia will reach 3,200 kilotons by 2040 (Puspa, 2022).

Electronic waste or e-waste refers to discarded electronic devices that have reached the end of their useful life and are disposed of by owners without intending for reuse, donation, or recycling (US EPA, 2014). These electronic and electrical equipment waste is categorized into 6 types based on their waste management characteristics, including equipment related to temperature control, equipment related to screens and monitors, lamps, large appliances such as refrigerators and washing machines, small appliances such as microwaves and toasters, and IT equipment and telecommunication devices (The Global E-waste Monitor, 2024).waste contains hazardous and toxic heavy metals (B3) such as lead, mercury, cadmium, beryllium, and chromium that contaminate the air, water, and soil (Gaur, 2023). When electronic waste is burned, toxic fumes are emitted, and the pollution caused by electronic waste is highly hazardous. These fumes can cause acute and chronic illnesses, such as respiratory diseases, skin cancer, allergies, and even death (Awasthi et al., 2016a; Cook et al., 2020; Hicks et al., 2005). As cited on the Universal Eco website, e-waste management in Indonesia still faces several challenges, including low public awareness to reduce the use of electronic goods, lack of infrastructure for e-waste management, and a shortage of skilled labor to manage e-waste. In addressing these challenges, the synergy between Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles and the implementation of circular economy (CE) is believed to offer potential sustainable solutions to be implemented in Indonesia.

Circular Economy: An Approach for Sustainable Future

Ellen MacArthur (2015) defines the circular economy as a model of economic system aimed at achieving economic growth while preserving the value of products, materials, and resources for as long as possible. The circular economy is now understood as an economic system that seeks to eliminate waste and continuous resource consumption through production cycles, reuse, and recycling. In the context of e-waste, this approach means extending the lifespan of electronic products, facilitating repairs and upgrades, and recycling components that can no longer be used. This approach can reduce the environmental impact of e-waste disposal and improve resource efficiency.

Based on the Circular Economy Economic, Social, and Environmental Benefits Report in Indonesia launched by Bappenas with support from UNDP and the Government of Denmark, the electronics sector is one of the priority sectors for circular economy implementation. As reported by Media Indonesia (2022), the report also reveals that the implementation of the circular economy in the electronics industry has the potential to increase GDP by Rp12.2 trillion by 2030. Meanwhile, in terms of the environment, the implementation of the circular economy in the electronics industry is predicted to help Indonesia avoid nearly 0.4 million tons of CO2 emissions and save 0.6 billion cubic meters of water by 2030. With the advancement of technology and science, the 3R concept is deemed insufficient to address the e-waste problem, leading to the emergence of a widely discussed circular economy implementation strategy known as the 9R concept (Greeneration Foundation, 2023). Implementing the principles of the circular economy 9R can be the initial step towards transitioning to a circular economy, allowing Indonesia to improve resource efficiency and create comprehensive e-waste management.

In Indonesia, the circular economy system has actually begun to be implemented, one example being the E-Waste RJ community, which has successfully reduced the volume of e-waste by collecting and recycling electronic devices. EWasteRJ is known to have 17 electronic waste collection points in nine cities, with more than 7 tons of electronic waste already collected and over 6.8 tons of electronic waste recycled (Arifa, 2022). By recycling precious metals such as gold, silver, and copper from unused devices, they not only reduce waste but also create new economic value from materials previously considered useless. One opportunity in managing e-waste in Indonesia is the limited number of companies licensed to manage and utilize specific waste management, such as electronic waste, as reported by waste4change. Only four companies have obtained permits from the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLHK), namely BGR Access, Patron, Retron, and Mall Sampah. Therefore, the government, as the policy instrument administrator, is expected to foster new business activities that have the potential to expand employment opportunities, ultimately contributing to the country’s economy.

ESG: A Framework for Social and Environmental Responsibility

ESG is a framework used to measure and manage the environmental, social, and governance performance of companies. ESG serves as a standard for companies to make long-term investments, integrating and implementing policies related to the environment, social, and governance aspects (Kartika & Hudaya, 2023). In the management of e-waste, the application of ESG can encourage companies to operate responsibly and sustainably. The integration of ESG in e-waste management encompasses various aspects:

Environment: This aspect demands that companies minimize the environmental impact of their operations by implementing effective e-waste management practices such as electronic component recycling, the adoption of environmentally friendly technologies in production processes, and the implementation of take-back concepts.

Social: The social aspect emphasizes the importance of involving communities in e-waste management. Education and campaigns about the importance of e-waste recycling are needed to increase public awareness and participation. For example, CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) programs can be directed towards building recycling facilities and supporting community initiatives focused on e-waste management.

Governance: Good governance is required to ensure that companies comply with applicable regulations and standards. In this regard, the Indonesian government plays a crucial role in strengthening regulations related to e-waste and providing incentives for companies that implement ESG practices.

Indonesian government initiatives

As part of efforts to address the issue of e-waste, the Indonesian government has issued various regulations. These regulations encompass the management of e-waste as a whole, covering reduction of generation, recycling, and final processing, including the following:Law Number 18 of 2008 concerning Waste Management
Government Regulation Number 101 of 2014 concerning Management of Hazardous and Toxic Waste Materials
Government Regulation Number 27 of 2020 concerning Specific Waste Management
Government Regulation Number 22 of 2021 concerning the Implementation of Environmental Protection and Management

The Indonesian government has developed the National Action Plan for Electronic Waste Management in 2019, aiming to establish a sustainable electronic waste management system in Indonesia by implementing various initiatives, such as developing regulations, building recycling facilities, increasing public awareness, and supporting research and innovation. This includes creating jobs in the electronic waste management sector and enhancing the country’s capacity to manage electronic waste. The plan was launched in February 2020 and covers the period from 2020 to 2025. One of the achievements of developing the roadmap for electronic waste management in Indonesia is the initiative of the Electronic Waste Management System formed by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry. This system aims to provide a comprehensive database on collectors, recyclers, and disposal sites for electronic waste from electronic device manufacturers, which is slated to be implemented in 2024.

The synergy between ESG and the circular economy in e-waste management offers a sustainable solution for Indonesia. By integrating the circular economy approach and ESG principles, Indonesia can reduce the environmental impact of e-waste, improve resource efficiency, and ensure social welfare. Moreover, the implementation of appropriate regulations, collaboration between the government, private sector, and society, as well as a series of initiatives, socialization, and education, are also key to achieving responsible and sustainable e-waste management. If all these elements are perfectly synergized, the younger generation of Indonesia will be able to experience a greener and more sustainable environmental governance in the future.



Cut Medika Zellatifanny
Master's Student of International Relations majoring in Digital Transformation and Competitiveness at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

Blue Economy Must Benefit Fishing Communities in Global South, Says WorldFish Chief

By Neena Bhandarit |

Dr Essam Yassin Mohammed, Director General of WorldFish.

SYDNEY, Jun 7 2024 (IPS) - The Global South is crucial for ensuring aquatic food security to feed the growing world population. It is imperative that blue economy initiatives benefit fishing communities in developing and small island nations, which are facing disproportionate impacts of climate change, says Dr Essam Yassin Mohammed, Director General of WorldFish, an international non-profit research organization based in Penang, Malaysia.

“More than three billion people depend on aquatic foods as their main source of protein and micronutrients, and nearly 800 million people rely on fishing for their livelihood. The Global South produces a significant portion of the world’s aquatic food and 95 percent of the fishing workforce comes from these regions,” notes Mohammed, who is also CGIAR’s Senior Director of Aquatic Food Systems.

Growing up in Eritrea’s capital, Asmara, situated on a highland plateau 2325 meters above sea level, Mohammed learned the value of food early in life. The country had recently gained independence from Ethiopia in 1991, and young children like him were motivated to contribute to the nation’s food security.

“Eritrea, a coastal country by the Red Sea, had abundant fish and marine resources. We believed these resources would be critical in making the country food secure so some of us decided to study marine biology and fishery science,” he adds.

While working for Eritrea’s Ministry of Fisheries, he was tasked with enhancing fish consumption amongst the Highlanders, who traditionally had no connection with the sea. He then realized that driving behavioral change in people’s diets, while considering cultural food preferences, is far more complex. To meet this challenging task and to better understand the interaction between humans and the ecosystem, he decided to train as a development economist.

“Integrating fisheries science with economics has profoundly shifted my viewpoint and deepened my comprehension of the intricate interplay within socio-ecological systems. This has defined my career, and I have never looked back,”  says Mohammed, who is committed to improving fisheries and aquaculture amidst the challenges of climate change, habitat degradation, and aquatic animal diseases.

Shifting ocean currents and warming waters are having a significant impact on fish stocks and coastal infrastructure, inundating lands and altering marine ecosystems, which is affecting the productivity of some fish species and forcing them to migrate to more optimal environments.

He says, “While large-scale commercial fishing vessels can still pursue and catch these fish say 20 km away, it is technically and financially prohibitive for small-scale operators with small boats to do so. This is where climate change becomes a social justice issue, impacting coastal communities’ access to food and causing loss of livelihoods and cultural identity.”

“At WorldFish, we are going beyond helping communities become climate resilient by creating viable livelihood opportunities, which include development of climate-resilient fish strains, adoption of sustainable aquaculture practices and assisting governments strengthen their fisheries policies, for fishing and fish farming-dependent communities to thrive under a changing climate,” he adds.

WorldFish research is helping prevent aquatic animal diseases, which cause an estimated global annual loss of over USD 6 billion, by ensuring that the food being produced is safe for human consumption.

“One of the critical aspects of fish farming is that once fish are exposed to a disease, the entire stock can perish.

We are democratizing fish health diagnosis with Lab in a Backpack initiative. It’s a compact digital tool that enables fish farmers to quickly diagnose the disease, contact service providers for treatment advice, and also learn how to deal with anti-microbial-resistant  diseases,” he explains.

The initiative is helping fish farmers build their capacity for the best biosecurity management practices by integrating the One Health approach, which prioritizes the health of fish, the environment, and people.

Besides diseases, plastic pollution in the ocean poses a significant threat to marine life and ecosystems. In November 2024, governments will meet for the final round of UN negotiations for a global treaty to end plastic pollution.

Mohammed says, “Once plastics enter the ocean, they are there to stay indefinitely. We have seen many instances of plastics harming marine life—straws stuck in the nostrils of turtles or dolphins—and now traces of microplastics have been found in fish tissues. It means those microplastics are being ingested by human beings, impacting their health too.”

“We need a legally binding treaty to mitigate plastic pollution. There is a global consensus now, but this needs to be followed by action on minimizing and eliminating plastic use and establishing a robust waste management system,” he adds.

Mohammed warns that many developed countries are prioritizing short-term economic gains at the cost of long-term sustainability and conservation of the global marine ecosystem. “We need to perceive the natural capital—marine life, oceans, and water bodies as economic infrastructure; and reinvest in them to ensure they continue to provide for us in the future,” he asserts.

According to the World Bank, blue economy is the “sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods, and jobs while preserving the health of the ocean ecosystem.”

Currently, investments in blue economy initiatives are not percolating down to developing countries. WorldFish research reveals that from 2017 to 2021, USD 5.9 billion allocated to blue economy initiatives was concentrated mainly in Europe and Central Asia, and 35 percent of examined projects had potential risks for creating or exacerbating social inequities.

“Blue economy investments must benefit developing countries and small island nations. Those who are farthest behind must be able to benefit the most,” Mohammed tells IPS.

The total fisheries and aquaculture production (excluding algae) is expected to reach over 200 million metric tons in 2030, according to the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organisation.

“Small-scale operators in the Global South supply up to 50 percent of aquatic food consumed globally. Ensuring that investments in the blue economy benefit these communities is essential for achieving shared prosperity and addressing climate change impacts on food security,” says Mohammed.

IPS UN Bureau Report

WATER IS LIFE NOT FOR $ALE

EU WATER FINANCE AND PPPs  

Public Private Partnerships and the financial sustainability of the Mediterranean water sector

June 7, 2024

“We are proud to present the report of the First UfM Annual Conference on Water Investment and Financing. In the process of developing the UfM Financial Strategy for Water, we heard from our partners that a regional platform was very much needed to facilitate dialogue and peer learning on this crucial topic among all stakeholders. We promptly reacted to that demand, with an ambitious vision, and launched what we hoped could soon become an important feature in the calendar of the water and financing sectors in our region.”

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Public Private Partnerships and the financial sustainability of the Mediterranean water sector

WATER, THE WEFE NEXUS AND FINANCE  – Applying a Water-Energy-Food-Environment nexus approach to water finance and investments

June 7, 2024

This publication describes a policy agenda for applying the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) nexus approach to water finance and investments. It presents the conclusions and recommendations of the 4th Conference on Water Finance and Investment co-organised on 30th-31st October 2023 in Cairo (Egypt) by the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), European Union (EU) Delegation in Egypt, and the African Development Bank, in partnership with the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources, and with financial support from Sweden. The first conference took place in Rome (Italy) in December 2019 and, after a pause due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, subsequent conferences have taken place annually since 2021 in Cairo (Egypt) in the framework of Cairo Water Week.

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Applying a Water-Energy-Food-Environment nexus approach to water finance and investments

SPACE TOO

War and Mir: Russia cannot back up its nuclear space race threats

7 June 2024
Maxim Starchak
Research Fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy, Queen’s University, Canada

On May 22, Pentagon spokesperson Patrick Ryder stated publicly that it was “likely” Russia had launched an anti-satellite weapon into low-Earth orbit. The development came just a month after Russia blocked a U.S.-Japanese resolution in the UN Security Council on the non-deployment of nuclear weapons in space. Since Moscow has traditionally opposed the militarization of space, the U.S. took Russia’s veto as a possible cover-up. According to Maxim Starchak, a research fellow at the Center for International and Defense Policy at Queen’s University (Canada), the Kremlin has every incentive to engage in such behavior. However, the resources available to Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, are so limited that the veiled threats are more likely aimed at affecting negotiations than at waging war in the cosmos.

No country on Earth can compete with the space-based capabilities of the United States military. America’s constellation of satellites allows for the integration of combat intelligence, communications, and navigation systems, enabling Washington’s land, sea, and air forces to coordinate operations among themselves.The U.S. possesses approximately 240 military satellites, while Russia has just over 100, and in terms of the total number of satellites, the gap is colossal: 5180 against 180.

The massive imbalance is easily explained by the difference in production capabilities between the two countries. While the U.S. can build approximately 3,000 spacecraft a year, Russia can only produce 40.

The U.S. possesses approximately 240 military satellites for various purposes, while Russia has just over 100

In addition, the U.S. can use commercial and civilian satellites as part of its military operations, and satellite imagery from American private companies has been a great help for Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression.
Why the Russian-Chinese treaty against weapons in space does not work

Russian nuclear doctrine considers the creation and deployment of missile defense and strike systems in space to be a threat, as Moscow fears that Washington could use its superiority in outer space to launch an unstoppable attack on Russia's strategic forces.

To combat this threat, in 2008 Russia and China submitted a proposal to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva: a draft Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, the Threat or Use of Force Against Outer Space Objects (PPWT). At the time, the two countries could not rival America’s financial and technical capabilities, meaning that a blanket ban on weapons in space represented their only opportunity to limit U.S. military superiority in that domain.

Putting forward the diplomatic initiative to ban space-based weapons systems, Russia nevertheless asserted that the development of terrestrial anti-satellite systems should not be outlawed. In other words, Russia and China sought both to limit the presence of U.S. military systems in space and to continue developing their on-the-ground anti-space systems. The proposal was unrealistic, of course.

The draft treaty had other shortcomings as well, including its vague definition of what should be considered a “weapon,” especially given the abundance of space-based systems used for military navigation, communication, monitoring, and command and control. In addition, the draft did not provide for the verification of the treaty’s implementation. As a result, the initiative was not given serious consideration.

Russia and China attempted to revive PPWT deliberations by presenting an updated draft in 2014, but they found no support from the United States. Later discussions have led only to the parties exchanging political commitments not to place weapons in space first, while also voicing calls for transparency.

In the meantime, China began to actively develop its space program, outpacing Russia in all core parameters and becoming second only to the U.S. In the future, the Chinese program is set to include more advanced navigation, communication, and reconnaissance systems that can support military operations from space. Since China cannot deploy these systems without also taking measures to ensure their security against attack, the value of PPWT for Beijing is declining.

China began to actively develop its space program, outpacing Russia in all core parameters and becoming second only to the U.S.

Obsolete Russian satellites

Although Russia has several space-based military systems that support the operations of its armed forces, none of them are operating at full capacity. The country has no radar imaging satellites, and only a limited number of photo satellites, with some of them expired. The Russian data relay satellite network, which can transmit images from reconnaissance satellites during the long periods when they are not in sight of ground stations, is also limited.

No wonder Dmitry Rogozin, then the head of Roscosmos, used outdated satellite images when making veiled threats against NATO in advance of the alliance’s 2022 summit in Madrid. One day before the opening of the event, the Roscosmos Telegram channel published a collection of images showing “the summit site and those very ‘decision-making centers’ supporting Ukrainian nationalists.” The images were labeled as if they had been taken recently by a Russian “Resurs-P” satellite; however, all of Russia’s “Resurs-P” satellites were out of commission at the time.

Russia’s space launch crisis further complicates its situation. Maintaining even limited constellations of spacecraft requires multiple launches, but Russia has carried out only 15-26 launches per year for the past eight years, far fewer than the United States or China. In 2023 alone, the U.S. had 109 successful launches, China had 66, and Russia had 19.

In 2023 alone, the U.S. had 109 successful launches, China had 66, and Russia had 19

Another major constraint is weak ground infrastructure. Although Moscow can put a group of military satellites into orbit, not all Russian military complexes can receive the signals they send back. Russia's space capabilities are generally poorly incorporated into its armed forces' command structure, making it difficult for Russian troops to benefit from them. Commanders have no understanding of how to leverage space-based assets and no technical or organizational prerequisites for their use. In addition, Russia’s shortage of satellites is compounded by the fact that its spacecraft are capable of staying in orbit for only half as long as their American counterparts, according to expert estimates.

In light of the above, Russia has a greater motivation to shoot down enemy satellites that the U.S. — or even China — does. That is precisely why Moscow is developing anti-satellite weapons, and why Washington is right to fear them. Proposals from Russian political and military experts only suggest a desire for further escalation.

Soviet-era innovations

In March 2018, less than three weeks before Russia’s presidential election, Vladimir Putin addressed the country’s Federal Assembly. After more than an hour of largely forgettable domestic policy talk, the topic shifted to defense, and the videos soon began: largely computer generated demonstrations of the supposedly groundbreaking Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon nuclear torpedo. However, the development of both projects began in Soviet times, and the same is true of Russia's space-based nuclear weapons.

In Washington, as part of a recent hearing before Congress, Pentagon representatives expressed concern about nuclear weapons and the potential for a nuclear explosion to be set off in Earth’s orbit. U.S. media sources familiar with the intelligence behind the statement clarified that the matter at hand concerns a nuclear weapon — and not a nuclear facility, as was previously thought. We still do not know what kind of weapon it may be, but in order to get a better idea of the range of possibilities it is instructive to examine two Soviet programs, the SK-1000 and the SP-2000, developed in the 1980s as a response to the U.S. Strategic Defense Initiative (a.k.a. “Star Wars”).

The SK-1000 aimed to create a space-based missile defense echelon using satellites to engage a target orbiting Earth or a target descending from orbit into the atmosphere. This was to be accomplished by creating a sort of ballistic silo rocket that would first launch satellites into space, then use them to defeat enemy vehicles.

Russia is currently known to have a similar anti-satellite program called Burevestnik (not to be confused with the missile of the same name). As in the Soviet Union, the program creates maneuvering interceptor nanosatellites that are launched into orbit by a special rocket. Presumably, the purpose of Burevestnik satellites is to attack vehicles both in low-Earth and geostationary orbit.

The specific technology of engagement is unknown, but the construction of the satellites provides for the use of both a conventional explosive charge and a nuclear warhead.

Another Soviet-era space project of note is the air-based anti-satellite complex Kontakt, which comprised MiG-31D aircraft and 79M6 Kontakt missiles and was intended to shoot down enemy vehicles in low-Earth orbit. The project was closed in the 1990s before being resuscitated in 2009, and while its initial design provided for the use of a kinetic interceptor, there are no technical limitations that would prevent the system from using a nuclear payload.

The dangers of nuclear weapons in space

The main problem with nuclear weapons in space is that a nuclear explosion there would have indiscriminate and long-lasting effects. Some satellites could be damaged in the direct explosion. Others would suffer damage from the electromagnetic pulse of the explosion, as the vast majority of satellites are vulnerable to electromagnetic pulses and radiation.

The explosion would immediately leave behind an environment with high radiation levels, causing unprotected satellites in the affected orbit to lose functionality more quickly than normal. Such an explosion would affect all military, civilian, and commercial satellites operated by governments and companies around the world.

A nuclear explosion in space would affect all military, civilian, and commercial satellites

Two years ago, Russia’s then Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said his country was developing kinetic and directed energy weapons. Although he provided no specifics, he may have been referring to kinetic interceptors for satellites in orbit, or to nuclear directed-energy weapons.

Nuclear directed-energy weapons use a nuclear explosion to power the active medium of a laser, thereby turning it into a generator of electromagnetic radiation that disables the radio-electronic and optical elements of spacecraft. A directed-energy weapon is considered to be more practical in space than a nuclear warhead because it could be aimed more precisely, affecting onboard computers or blinding satellites without causing indiscriminate damage.

Some experts have speculated that the Russian laser system Peresvet, which has been put on combat standby duty, could be using the energy of a nuclear explosion to blind optical reconnaissance satellites. This hypothesis is yet to be confirmed, but Russia has possessed designs for such weapons since the 1950s.





In addition to the nuclear option, the state-owned Russian news agency RIA Novosti has written, Russia's Zevs space tug can also disable satellites.



The Zevs (“Zeus”) nuclear space tug

More bark than bite

And yet, whether the Russian military-industrial complex is capable of delivering such weapons remains a major question. Despite large budget expenditures, its capabilities remain limited. Roscosmos has long suffered from low profitability, accumulated debts, and mounting losses. After Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2014, the U.S. imposed sanctions against certain Roscosmos enterprises. After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, many of Russia’s international partners withdrew from what international contracts remained. As a result, limited access to Western technology, components, and financing brought additional costs to Roscosmos enterprises and caused them to postpone the fulfillment of their obligations.

Financial gaps led the corporation to cut its staff and seek new partners among developing countries like Algeria and Egypt. Last year, Russia's space corporation entered the borrowing market for the first time, issuing $112 million worth of bonds.

Although Vladimir Putin advertised the Burevestnik and Poseidon weapons systems way back when he was still just a three-term president, there have been no further demonstrations — let alone documented tests. Nevertheless, Putin's public statements on the possibility of placing nuclear weapons in space represent another escalatory step aimed at convincing the United States of Russia's superiority in armaments, thereby allowing the Kremlin to secure more favorable negotiation terms.

Putin's public statements on the possibility of placing nuclear weapons in space are another escalatory step

And his words have had at least some effect, as the Biden administration has already expressed its willingness to discuss with Moscow the topic of nuclear weapons in space even as Russia’s war against Ukraine rages on with no end in sight.

However, the Russian Foreign Ministry is ready to negotiate on strategic stability only if the United States changes its policy toward Moscow, stops supporting Ukraine, and agrees to discuss other areas of Russian interest, namely: NATO expansion, missile defense, and the proximity of U.S. and other alliance members' weapons to Russia's borders. In other words, the United States would have to accept the ultimatums Russia outlined in December 2021, before the full-scale invasion — an unrealistic scenario on all counts. The Kremlin understands this, of course, and is prepared to wait for as long as it takes — even if it takes generations for politicians in charge to change.

Whether we like it or not, war is coming to space



Frank Ledwidge
Former military intelligence officer, Senior Lecturer in Military Strategy and Law, University of Portsmouth

9 February 2024

With so many armed conflicts underway on Earth, the prospects of a war in space have received less attention in recent years. But that doesn’t mean preparations for a potential battle over cosmic resources have ended. The United States and China continue to develop their capacities to protect critical satellites while shooting those of their enemies out of orbit, while Russia lags further behind in third place. Most frontiers in human history have ultimately served as battlegrounds, and space — “the final frontier” — is unlikely to prove an exception.

A day without space…..

All around us, thousands of spacecraft cross the skies — so many that congestion in space is now a real problem. On a clear night you can see some of them, small starlike points of light cruising silently across the sky. These are a small fraction of the vast networks of satellites that provide a vital part of the nervous system of our civilised, connected society: all electronic financial transactions must be timestamped using the precision timing capabilities that only GPS can supply; our food and commodity supply chains are coordinated using the same technology; electronic devices, including the one on which you are reading this, would fail, as it too depends on GPS. One single day without space would be catastrophic.

And that’s just the normal, day-to-day world. From a military perspective, reconnaissance and communications (which are closely linked) are almost entirely dependent on space assets. The GPS system which underpins much of modern life was originally developed to assist precision targeting. It is still operated by the US Military and is one of the main functions of the new US Space force (founded by then-President Donald Trump in 2019). We saw in Ukraine the absolutely vital function fulfilled by Elon Musk’s Starlink system, possibly the single most important factor in Ukraine’s success up to now, as it has allowed Ukrainian units to communicate after the destruction (by cyber-attack) of their Viasat system early in the war.

Space as domain of conflict

All of this brings us to space as a battleground. NATO has considered space as the fifth ‘domain’ of combat (in addition to land, sea, air, and cyber) since 2019. In 2015, Russia renamed its air force the ‘Aerospace Force’ (VKS), and France – a major European space power – similarly renamed its air force to the ‘Air and Space Force’ in 2020. All major states are gearing up to protect their cosmic assets and to destroy those of their enemy.

Some of their preparations have been truly dangerous, with China (2007) and Russia (2021) using missiles to destroy old satellites of their own in order to demonstrate their capability to attack the satellites of others. These are called ‘direct ascent’ operations. The debris from these strikes produce clouds of debris that will remain in orbit for decades and that constitute a danger for all space-users. And should full-scale war arrive, the West’s space assets will face the threat of Chinese and Russian missiles and lasers, along with a specialized form of attack satellite that can approach and damage — or even literally take apart — enemy spacecraft. This kind of attack is called a ‘rendezvous and proximity’ operation. You can see an amusing but actually quite accurate depiction from the Netflix show “Space Force” here.

Where Russia’s relative capacity to wage war in space is declining, China’s is catching up quickly. Still, neither potential adversary is capable of posing the same level of threat to the United States that the United States is capable of posing to them. present a critical threat, but nowhere near as much a danger as the US presents to them. America is still by far the world’s most powerful space-faring nation, and it is conducting a major effort to defend and strengthen its space networks.

Taking war to the Moon

Both major space powers — the U.S. and China — have their sights set well beyond near-Earth orbit (and this is where things really move more into the realms of science fiction). Both countries are making plans for what to do on the moon, and they are also getting ready to use the space between Earth and Moon (‘cislunar’ space) as a potential theatre of conflict.

The first question is, of course, why are we spreading our conflicts to the moon? Can’t we leave the moon free of our local, petty, mass-casualty disputes? The answer to the first question is straightforward: resources. The moon is a vast repository of valuable minerals and chemicals that are very rare on Earth. These will be mined and exploited. The second question is essentially philosophical. The fact is that the moon is a frontier, and frontiers have, almost without exception in human history, become areas of chronic conflict. (Antarctica, protected by the Antarctic Treaty until 2057, offers a rare exception, but in the present international environment, there is little hope of reaching a similar legal or quasi-legal arrangement which will bind all nations.)

Both the U.S. and China are planning moon bases which will require energy from the moon itself, and it is very clear what the most important commodity on the moon will be – water. Scientists estimate that there are billions of tons of water embedded deep within lunar rocks. This is especially the case at parts of the lunar South Pole, and strategists already have their eyes on particular craters — especially Shackleton, which is always shaded from the sun. Vast infrastructure will be required to extract this water. It is here that China and the U.S. are likely to establish their first moon bases, and it is here where the potential for conflict may be highest.

Of course, like all bases, those on the moon will need resupplying from Earth, and those supply routes will need to be defended. America is already considering what they are calling the ‘Cislunar Highway Patrol System’ to ensure the safe passage of these resupply craft against attack by any potential enemy.

And the moon is only the beginning. The famous Astronomer Neil de Grasse Tyson once said that the first trillionaire will be made in space, and the source of their wealth will be minerals from asteroids. In other words, we stand at the brink of a new phase of space exploration: the age of space traders. It is a situation ripe with all the potential for piracy and resource-driven organized conflict that we have seen on Earth for thousands of years. Unfortunately, it looks that we will be taking our Earthly habits of war into the Cosmos.

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