The economic loss of Puerto Rico's Arecibo Observatory is already being felt. It's also very personal

By Fernando Alfonso III, CNN

Updated Sun December 6, 2020

(CNN)Junellie González Quiles peered into her first telescope when she was 10 years old and what she saw were stars, planets, and a doorway into a world of science made possible by Puerto Rico's iconic Arecibo Observatory.

Observatory astronomers once brought some telescopes to a summer camp she attended as a girl growing up in San Juan, part of one of Arecibo's various educational programs -- the future of which are now unclear.

The observatory has been an integral part of the island's education, science and business sectors that islanders and experts contend must be rebuilt after the US National Science Foundation decided in late November to decommission and disassemble Arecibo through a controlled demolition due to irreparable damage. That damage, sustained this summer, resulted in its 900-ton equipment platform collapsing last week.

Junellie González Quiles is one of thousands of Puerto Rican students to visit the Arecibo Observatory since it was commissioned into service in 1963.

Using the hashtag #WhatAreciboMeansToMe, González Quiles, now a 24-year-old doctoral student at Johns Hopkins University studying exoplanets in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, shared how the observatory affected her life while growing up in the island's capital.

"The Arecibo Observatory being in Puerto Rico has inspired us Puerto Ricans to pursue scientific knowledge and it taught us that not even the sky is our limit," González Quiles told CNN over email. "We can go beyond. The impact that it has had on the education system in Puerto Rico and the training it has provided for many scientists has been very significant. The Arecibo Observatory is the science icon for Puerto Rico and we take pride in it because of its impact on Puerto Rico and the world."




The economic impact of losing the observatory

The Foundation for Puerto Rico has been intimately involved with Arecibo and studying the economic influence the observatory has had on the community.

The foundation was founded as a nonprofit in 2011 and works to create opportunities that drive social and economic development in Puerto Rico, with a focus on the visitor economy.
The observatory attracted roughly 50,000 students and 50,000 other visitors on average each year before Hurricane Maria, said Carlos Ayala, a program manager for the Foundation for Puerto Rico's Bottom Up Destination Recovery Initiative.

The end is near for famed Arecibo Observatory's damaged telescope

Ayala spent six months living in Arecibo in 2019 to study the visitor economy of under-served communities on the island. What he learned was how each non-student visitor to the Arecibo region spent approximately $171 daily and lodged in the area for five to seven days, he said.
"The region will suffer because a 50,000 drop (in visitors) is notable," Ayala said

Mestizo Café and Supermarket Samcoop 4 Calles are two of the many local businesses that have relied on a steady stream of observatory tourists. Its closing has already hurt business, cafe owner David Gonzales told CNN on Friday over the phone.

"The count of clients has gone down," Gonzales said. "The observatory closing is having an impact because people would come to visit the area and spend time in the town of Arecibo. Arecibo does not have too many places to visit; the observatory was the most important attraction."

Puerto Rico Fast Facts

This was a similar situation at the supermarket. Manager Neysha Berenice Domenech said many tourists would stop at the store to pick up drinks and snacks on their way to the observatory.

"Now we are going to have less people, which is very sad after having the observatory for many years and it being one of the biggest ones of the world," Domenech told CNN over the phone. "It was very important for the Puerto Rican people."

Tourism is a crucial sector for the island which in 2018 reported a 43% poverty rate, according to the US Census. In 2017, tourism made up approximately 7% of the island's GDP, according to an analysis by the Foundation for Puerto Rico.

The observatory itself employs roughly 130 people who largely live in and around Arecibo, said Ray Lugo, the observatory's principal investigator and the director of the University of Central Florida's Space Institute. There will be no changes to their roles for the foreseeable future, Lugo said.

A scientific marvel that educated the masses

The observatory, which was featured in the James Bond film "GoldenEye" and the sci-fi movie "Contact," has been helmed by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) since 1970.
Lugo was the author of the grant proposal to the NSF which awarded the University of Central Florida operational control of the Arecibo Observatory in 2018, he said. Since then, the university has been responsible for maintaining the facility, conducting and coordinating scientific research, and running education programs, he said in a phone interview.

A look at the Arecibo Observatory's platform. This is what collapsed last week.

The scientific research conducted at the observatory falls into three main categories: radio astronomy (the collection of radio signals from things like stars and planets), planetary radar group (which works closely with NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Observations Program), and atmospheric science (involves experiments where the upper atmosphere is heated up and probed), Lugo said.

So far this year, research at the observatory had characterized the spin, rotation, and shape of 67 asteroids before an auxiliary cable came loose from a socket on one of the site's towers in August, Lugo said.

This research adds to a litany of scientific accomplishments at the observatory, including its assistance in discovering the first binary pulsar in 1974 (which led to the 1993 Nobel Prize in physics). The observatory has also supported NASA's Viking mission, which produced the first radar maps of Venus' surface and spotted the first exoplanet in 1992.

This aerial view shows the damage at the Arecibo Observatory after one of the main cables holding the receiver broke in Arecibo, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 1, 2020.

To date, the research conducted at the observatory has helped roughly 400 students around the world earn doctoral degrees, Lugo said.

Despite the heavy damage to parts of the telescope, much of the observatory's research will continue using other hardware on site and through analyzing huge stockpiles of data already collected, Lugo said.

The observatory has partnered with the Ana G. Méndez University System to educate students of all ages. One of the crown jewels of its educational programs is its Arecibo Observatory Space Academy where students are brought on-site to conduct research alongside field professionals. González Quiles participated in the program in 2013.

"The experience at the Arecibo Observatory was incredible, it was my first time doing scientific research," González Quiles said. "During my time at the academy, we worked on projects that aimed to fulfill one goal, which was to design a space settlement for the NASA Ames Space Settlement Design Contest. I worked on the aerospace engineering for the design."

Ayala was also one of the scores of Puerto Rican students to visit the observatory when he was a young student. He lamented the thought of children not being able to visit it.

"Losing this important asset, it's really a tragedy for the public school kids," Ayala said. "Most of the kids in Puerto Rico can't go to a space camp in the United States and can't get access to that scientific knowledge."

Charting a path to the Arecibo Observatory's future

Restoring the Arecibo Observatory to its former glory is not enough for Annie Mayol, the president and chief operating officer of the Foundation for Puerto Rico.

Mayol believes that improving the roads leading to a rebuilt observatory and adding things like a small hotel on site will draw more visitors.

"We are about asset rehabilitation and we're about sustainable tourism," Mayol said. "It's about making sure that we support our science, our community and our students who actually grow and use this as an inspiration."

Mayol is hopeful that the incoming Biden-Harris administration will "be looking at Puerto Rico with a different eye" and allocate federal funding to rebuild the site.

A petition titled "Rebuild the Arecibo Observatory" was launched on Dec. 2 and has since collected more than 39,000 digital signatures as of Sunday morning. It calls on "Congress to allocate funding to build a new Arecibo radio telescope with greater capabilities than the previous telescope -- to maintain American leadership in planetary defense, astronomy, and ionospheric studies; and to inspire a new generation of scientists."

Over the past few months, Lugo said he has met with 25 members of Congress and the governor of Puerto Rico to advocate for rebuilding the observatory.

Lugo estimates that it would cost $400 million to rebuild the Arecibo Observatory.
"We are working very hard on Arecibo model 2," he said. "There is already a movement and it's going to build momentum over the next couple of weeks."

CNN's Melissa Macaya and Ashley Strickland contributed to this report.

Christian actress Letitia Wright deletes social media after criticism over anti-vaccination video

Sun 06 Dec 2020 by Press Association

Photo Credit: Ian West/ PA Wire/PA Images

Christian actress Letitia Wright appears to have deleted her social media accounts after she was criticised for sharing a video questioning the safety of the Covid-19 vaccine.

The Black Panther star, 27, sparked controversy after tweeting a video called Covid-19 Vaccine: Should We Take It? from On The Table, a YouTube discussion channel.

Wright faced a fierce backlash from fans on social media as well as her Marvel co-star Don Cheadle, who described the video as "hot garbage".

The video appears to have since been removed from YouTube, while Wright's Twitter handle now shows the message "This account doesn't exist," and her Instagram says: "Sorry, this page isn't available."

Addressing the criticism in a post on Twitter before the account was removed, she wrote: "My intention was not to hurt anyone, my only intention of posting the video was it raised my concerns with what the vaccine contains and what we are putting in our bodies. Nothing else."

In an earlier post, Wright appeared to claim she was being "cancelled" for asking questions of the vaccine.

The video in question saw presenter Tomi Arayomi speak at length about his personal feelings about the efficacy and safety of vaccines.

He said: "I am just a big sceptic of needles and vaccinations in general, I think the body should be able to produce the right antibodies to fight things."

He added: "We can just get that (the vaccine) out there and hope it doesn't make extra limbs grow, hope to god you don't develop children that have 11 fingers and 12 toes, we are hoping for the best.

"We have seen vaccines do damage before."

The description of the video said "Tonight I'm talking about Luciferase, the ingredient allegedly being added to the Covid vaccine to detect those who have not taken it.

"Luciferase, named by its founder after Lucifer???

"Now this is only partially true on a fact check, but we explore this and more On The Table."

Arayomi was described as "an internationally received and recognised prophet, speaker, author and founder of RIG Nation, a media platform with the Christian mission established since 2007 to train people to become prophets and prophets to be people".

Wright, who most recently starred in Sir Steve McQueen's Small Axe film Mangrove, received a barrage of criticism for sharing the video alongside a prayer hands emoji.

When one fan warned her "they are going to make an example out of you", she replied: "Make an example out of me for asking if something is right for my body before taking it. Interesting world we live in."

When another follower told her she was upsetting people, she wrote: "Not my intention to make anyone upset. Nor am I saying don't take it. I'm just concerned about what's in it that's all. Isn't that fair to question or ask?"

After replying to a string of followers criticising her post, she wrote: "If you don't conform to popular opinions. But ask questions and think for yourself....you get cancelled."

Marvel fans shared Wright's post with her co-star Cheadle, who plays James Rhodes/War Machine in the film series.

He wrote: "Jesus... just scrolled through. Hot garbage.

"I would never defend anybody posting this. But I still won't throw her away over it. The rest I'll take off Twitter. Had no idea."

Lord, please help us to discern what is true and what is false.

Please give us revelation when we have questions.

Be with Letitia now as she's dealing with all the backlash from her post.

Amen. 

Pray for this issue

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Article by Press Association

'Black Panther' star under fire after sharing anti-vaccination video

CNN Tonight

"Black Panther" star Letitia Wright is facing a social media backlash after sharing concerns and conspiracy theories about Covid-19 vaccines on Twitter. https://www.cnn.com/videos/entertainment/2020/12/05/letitia-wright-black-panther-twitter-anti-vaccination-video-take-this-ctn-vpx.cnn

Letitia Wright - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letitia_Wright

Letitia Michelle Wright (born 31 October 1993) is a Guyanese-British actress. Beginning her professional career in 2011, she has played roles in Black Panther and several British TV series, including Top Boy, Coming Up, Chasing Shadows, Humans, the Doctor Who episode "Face the Raven" and the Black Mirror episode "Black Museum"; for the latter she received a Primetime Emmy Award nomination for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie.

Coasts drown as coral reefs collapse under warming and acidification

ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR CORAL REEF STUDIES

Research News

 

IMAGE: REEFS WILL STRUGGLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF WARMING AND OCEAN ACIDIFICATION. THE IMPACTS BY THE END OF THE CENTURY INCLUDE 'INSIDIOUS AND ACCELERATED LOSS OF COASTAL... view more 

CREDIT: KRISTEN BROWN.

A new study shows the coastal protection coral reefs currently provide will start eroding by the end of the century, as the world continues to warm and the oceans acidify.

A team of researchers led by Associate Professor Sophie Dove from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at The University of Queensland (Coral CoE at UQ) investigated the ability of coral reef ecosystems to retain deposits of calcium carbonate under current projections of warming and ocean acidification.

Calcium carbonate is what skeletons are made of--and it dissolves under hot, acidic conditions. Marine animals that need calcium carbonate for their skeletons or shells are called 'calcifiers'. Hard corals have skeletons, which is what gives reefs much of their three-dimensional (3D) structure. It's this structure that helps protect coasts--and those living on the coasts--from the brunt of waves, floods and storms. Without coral reefs the coasts 'drown'.

A/Prof Dove says the amount of calcium carbonate within a coral reef ecosystem depends on the biomass of hard corals. But it also depends on the combined impact of warming and acidification on previously deposited calcium carbonate frameworks. She says the results of the study indicate the rate of erosion will overtake the rate of accretion on the majority of present-day reefs.

"Today's Great Barrier Reef has a 30% calcifier cover," A/Prof Dove said.

"If CO2 emissions aren't curbed, by the end-of-century a 50% calcifier cover is required to counter the physical erosion they face from storms and wave impacts," she said.

"In addition, more than 110% calcifier cover is needed to keep up with the minimal levels of sea-level rise."

However, A/Prof Dove says both of these scenarios are unlikely because high amounts of hard corals perish with intense underwater heatwaves. Previous studies show marine heatwaves will become chronic in the warmer months of an average year under unmitigated CO2 emissions.

The study was published in today's Communications Earth & Environment, just after the IUCN World Heritage Outlook 3 rated the Great Barrier Reef as 'critical'.

A/Prof Dove and her team built experimental reefs closely resembling those of shallow reef slopes at Heron Island on the southern Great Barrier Reef. For 18 months, they studied the effects of future climate scenarios on the ecosystem.

"What we saw was the insidious and accelerated loss of coastal protection under unmitigated CO2 emissions," said co-author Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, also from Coral CoE at UQ.

"Under current projections, reefs will not simply adapt. Chronic exposure to the combined impacts of ocean warming and acidification will weaken reefs. They won't be able to re-build after disturbances such as cyclones, nor will they keep up with sea-level rise--possibly for thousands of years," said co-author Dr Kristen Brown, also from Coral CoE at UQ.

This means many coastal areas currently protected by calcareous coral reefs will no longer be so, impacting coastal infrastructure and communities.

"The combined impact of warming with the acidification of our oceans will see more than the collapse of ecosystems," A/Prof Dove said.

###

PAPER

Dove S, Brown K, Van Den Heuvel A, Chai A, Hoegh-Guldberg O. (2020). 'Ocean warming and acidification uncouple calcification from calcifier biomass which accelerates coral reef decline'. Communications Earth & Environment. DOI: 10.1038/s43247-020-00054-x

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Arctic Ocean: climate change is flooding the remote north with light – and new species

Carlos Duarte, Adjunct Professor of Marine Ecology, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Dorte Krause-Jensen, Professor, Marine Ecology, Aarhus University, Karen Filbee-Dexter, Research Fellow in Marine

At just over 14 million square kilometres, the Arctic Ocean is the smallest and shallowest of the world’s oceans. It is also the coldest. An expansive raft of sea ice floats near its centre, expanding in the long, cold, dark winter, and contracting in the summer, as the Sun climbs higher in the sky

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© (AP Photo/Felipe Dana) 

A boat navigates at night next to large icebergs in eastern Greenland.

Every year, usually in September, the sea ice cover shrinks to its lowest level. The tally in 2020 was a meagre 3.74 million square kilometres, the second-smallest measurement in 42 years, and roughly half of what it was in 1980. Each year, as the climate warms, the Arctic is holding onto less and less ice.

The effects of global warming are being felt around the world, but nowhere on Earth are they as dramatic as they are in the Arctic. The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than any other place on Earth, ushering in far-reaching changes to the Arctic Ocean, its ecosystems and the 4 million people who live in the Arctic.

This story is part of Oceans 21

Five profiles open our series on the global ocean, delving into ancient Indian Ocean trade networks, Pacific plastic pollution, Arctic light and life, Atlantic fisheries and the Southern Ocean’s impact on global climate. All brought to you from The Conversation’s international network.

Some of them are unexpected. The warmer water is pulling some species further north, into higher latitudes. The thinner ice is carrying more people through the Arctic on cruise ships, cargo ships and research vessels. Ice and snow can almost entirely black out the water beneath it, but climate change is allowing more light to flood in.
Artificial light in the polar night

Light is very important in the Arctic. The algae which form the foundation of the Arctic Ocean’s food web convert sunlight into sugar and fat, feeding fish and, ultimately, whales, polar bears and humans.

At high latitudes in the Arctic during the depths of winter, the Sun stays below the horizon for 24 hours. This is called the polar night, and at the North Pole, the year is simply one day lasting six months, followed by one equally long night.

Researchers studying the effects of ice loss deployed moored observatories – anchored instruments with a buoy — in an Arctic fjord in the autumn of 2006, before the fjord froze. When sampling started in the spring of 2007, the moorings had been in place for almost six months, collecting data throughout the long and bitter polar night.

What they detected changed everything.

© Michael O. Snyder

 The polar night can last for weeks and even months in the high Arctic.
Life in the dark

At that time, scientists assumed the polar night was utterly uninteresting. A dead period in which life lies dormant and the ecosystem sinks into a dark and frigid standby mode. Not much was expected to come of these measurements, so researchers were surprised when the data showed that life doesn’t pause at all.

Arctic zooplankton — tiny microscopic animals that eat algae — take part in something called diel vertical migration beneath the ice and in the dead of the polar night. Sea creatures in all the oceans of the world do this, migrating to depth during the day to hide from potential predators in the dark, and surfacing at night to feed.

Organisms use light as a cue to do this, so they shouldn’t logically be able to during the polar night. We now understand the polar night to be a riot of ecological activity. The normal rhythms of daily life continue in the gloom. Clams open and close cyclically, seabirds hunt in almost total darkness, ghost shrimps and sea snails gather in kelp forests to reproduce, and deep-water species such as the helmet jellyfish surface when it’s dark enough to stay safe from predators.

For most of the organisms active during this period, the Moon, stars and aurora borealis likely give important cues that guide their behaviour, especially in parts of the Arctic not covered by sea ice. But as the Arctic climate warms and human activities in the region ramp up, these natural light sources will in many places be invisible, crowded out by much stronger artificial light.

© Muratart/Shutterstock 

The northern lights dance in the sky over Tromsø, Norway.

Artificial light

Almost a quarter of all land masses are exposed to scattered artificial light at night, as it’s reflected back to the ground from the atmosphere. Few truly dark places remain, and light from cities, coastlines, roads and ships is visible as far as outer space.

Even in sparsely populated areas of the Arctic, light pollution is noticeable. Shipping routes, oil and gas exploration and fisheries extend into the region as the sea ice retreats, drawing artificial light into the otherwise inky black polar night.

© Michael O. Snyder

Creatures which have adapted to the polar night over millions of years are now suddenly exposed to artificial light.

No organisms have had the opportunity to properly adapt to these changes – evolution works on a much longer timescale. Meanwhile, the harmonic movements of the Earth, Moon and Sun have provided reliable cues to Arctic animals for millennia. Many biological events, such as migration, foraging and breeding are highly attuned to their gentle predictability.

In a recent study carried out in the high Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, between mainland Norway and the north pole, the onboard lights of a research vessel were found to affect fish and zooplankton at least 200 metres down. Disturbed by the sudden intrusion of light, the creatures swirling beneath the surface reacted dramatically, with some swimming towards the beam, and others swimming violently away.

It’s difficult to predict the effect artificial light from ships newly navigating the ice-free Arctic will have on polar night ecosystems that have known darkness for longer than modern humans have existed. How the rapidly growing human presence in the Arctic will affect the ecosystem is concerning, but there are also unpleasant questions for researchers. If much of the information we’ve gathered about the Arctic came from scientists stationed on brightly lit boats, how “natural” is the state of the ecosystem we have reported?

© Michael O. Snyder 

Research in the Arctic could change considerably over the coming years to reduce light pollution.

Arctic marine science is about to enter a new era with autonomous and remotely operated platforms, capable of operating without any light, making measurements in complete darkness.

Underwater forests

As sea ice retreats from the shores of Greenland, Norway, North America and Russia, periods with open water are getting longer, and more light is reaching the sea floor. Suddenly, coastal ecosystems that have been hidden under ice for 200,000 years are seeing the light of day. This could be very good news for marine plants like kelp – large brown seaweeds that thrive in cold water with enough light and nutrients.

Anchored to the sea floor and floating with the tide and currents, some species of kelp can grow up to 50 metres (175 feet) – about the same height as Nelson’s Column in Trafalgar Square, London. But kelp are typically excluded from the highest latitudes because of the shade cast by sea ice and its scouring effect on the seabed.

© Ignacio Garrido/

Arctic Kelp Badderlocks, or winged kelp, off the coast of Nunavut in the Canadian Arctic.

These lush underwater forests are set to grow and thrive as sea ice shrinks. Kelp are not a new arrival to the Arctic though. They were once part of the traditional Greenlandic diet, and polar researchers and explorers observed them along northern coasts more than a century ago.

Some species of kelp may have colonised Arctic coasts after the last ice age, or spread out from small pockets where they’d held on. But most kelp forests in the Arctic are smaller and more restricted to patches in deeper waters, compared to the vast swathes of seaweed that line coasts like California’s in the US.\

© Ignacio Garrido/

Arctic Kelp The polar night can last for weeks and even months in the high Arctic.

Recent evidence from Norway and Greenland shows kelp forests are already expanding and increasing their ranges poleward, and these ocean plants are expected to get bigger and grow faster as the Arctic warms, creating more nooks for species to live in and around. The full extent of Arctic kelp forests remains largely unseen and uncharted, but modelling can help determine how much they have shifted and grown in the Arctic since the 1950s.

© Filbee-Dexter et al. (2018) Known locations of kelp forests and global trends in predicted average summer surface temperature increase over next two decades, according to IPCC models.

A new carbon sink

Although large seaweeds come in all shapes and sizes, many are remarkably similar to trees, with long, trunk-like but flexible bodies called stipes. The kelp forest canopy is filled with the flat blades like leaves, while holdfasts act like roots by anchoring the seaweed to rocks below.

Some types of Arctic kelp can grow over ten metres and form large and complex canopies suspended in the water column, with a shaded and protected understorey. Much like forests on land, these marine forests provide habitats, nursery areas and feeding grounds for many animals and fish, including cod, pollack, crabs, lobsters and sea urchins.

© Ignacio Garrido/ArcticKelp 

Kelp forests offer lots of nooks and crannies and surfaces to settle on, making them rich in wildlife.

Kelp are fast growers, storing carbon in their leathery tissue as they do. So what does their expansion in the Arctic mean for the global climate? Like restoring forests on land, growing underwater kelp forests can help to slow climate change by diverting carbon from the atmosphere.

Better yet, some kelp material breaks off and is swept out of shallow coastal waters and into the deep ocean where it’s effectively removed from the Earth’s carbon cycle. Expanding kelp forests along the Earth’s extensive Arctic coasts could become a growing carbon sink that captures the CO₂ humans emit and locks it away in the deep sea.

What’s happening with kelp in the Arctic is fairly unique – these ocean forests are embattled in most other parts of the world. Overall, the global extent of kelp forests is on a downward trend because of ocean heatwaves, pollution, warming temperatures, and outbreaks of grazers like sea urchins.

Unsurprisingly, it’s not all good news. Encroaching kelp forests could push out unique wildlife in the high Arctic. Algae living under the ice will have nowhere to go, and could disappear altogether. More temperate kelp species may replace endemic Arctic kelps such as Laminaria solidungula. 

© Ignacio Garrido/ArcticKelp 

A crab finds refuge on Laminaria solidungula

But kelp are just one set of species among many pushing further and deeper into the region as the ice melts.

Arctic invasions

Milne Inlet, on north Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada, sees more marine traffic than any other port in Arctic Canada. Most days during the open-water period, 300-metre-long ships leave the port laden with iron ore from the nearby Mary River Mine. Between 71 and 82 ships pass through the area annually, most heading to — or coming from ports in northern Europe.

Cruise ships, coast guard vessels, pleasure yachts, research icebreakers, cargo supply ships and rigid inflatable boats full of tourists also glide through the area. Unprecedented warming and declining sea ice has attracted new industries and other activities to the Arctic. Communities like Pond Inlet have seen marine traffic triple in the past two decades.

© Kimberly Howland 

Passengers from a cruise ship arrive in Pond Inlet, Nunavut.

These ships come to the Arctic from all over the world, carrying a host of aquatic hitchhikers picked up in Rotterdam, Hamburg, Dunkirk and elsewhere. These species — some too small to see with the naked eye — are hidden in the ballast water pumped into on-board tanks to stabilise the ship. They also stick to the hull and other outer surfaces, called “biofouling.”

Some survive the voyage to the Arctic and are released into the environment when the ballast water is discharged and cargo loaded. Those that maintain their hold on the outer surface may release eggs, sperm or larvae.

Many of these organisms are innocuous, but some may be invasive newcomers that can cause harm. Research in Canada and Norway has already shown non-native invasive species like bay and acorn barnacles can survive ship transits to the Arctic. This raises a risk for Arctic ecosystems given that invasive species are one of the top causes for extinctions worldwide.

Expanded routes

Concern about invasive species extends far beyond the community of Pond Inlet. Around 4 million people live in the Arctic, many of them along the coasts that provide nutrients and critical habitat for a wide array of animals, from Arctic char and ringed seals to polar bear, bowhead whales and millions of migratory birds.

As waters warm, the shipping season is becoming longer, and new routes, like the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route (along Russia’s Arctic coast), are opening up. Some researchers expect a trans-Arctic route across the North Pole might be navigable by mid-century. The increased ship traffic magnifies the numbers and kinds of organisms transported into Arctic waters, and the progressively more hospitable conditions improve their odds of survival.

Prevention is the number one way to keep invasive species out of the Arctic. Most ships must treat their ballast water, using chemicals or other processes, and/or exchange it to limit the movement of harmful organisms to new locations. Guidelines also recommend ships use special coatings on the hulls and clean them regularly to prevent biofouling. But these prevention measures are not always reliable, and their efficacy in colder environments is poorly understood.

The next best approach is to detect invaders as soon as possible once they arrive, to improve chances for eradication or suppression. But early detection requires widespread monitoring, which can be challenging in the Arctic. Keeping an eye out for the arrival of a new species can be akin to searching for a needle in a haystack, but northern communities may offer a solution.

Researchers in Norway, Alaska and Canada have found a way to make that search easier by singling out species that have caused harm elsewhere and that could endure Arctic environmental conditions. Nearly two dozen potential invaders show a high chance for taking hold in Arctic Canada

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© Shutterstock The red king crab was intentionally introduced to the Barents Sea in the 1960s, but is now spreading south along the Norwegian coast.

Among these is the cold-adapted red king crab, native to the Sea of Japan, Bering Sea and North Pacific. It was intentionally introduced to the Barents Sea in the 1960s to establish a fishery and is now spreading south along the Norwegian coast and in the White Sea. It is a large, voracious predator implicated in substantial declines of harvested shellfish, sea urchins and other larger, slow moving bottom species, with a high likelihood of surviving transport in ballast water.

Another is the common periwinkle, which ruthlessly grazes on lush aquatic plants in shoreline habitats, leaving behind bare or encrusted rock. It has also introduced a parasite on the east coast of North America that causes black spot disease in fishes, which stresses adult fishes and makes them unpalatable, kills juveniles and causes intestinal damage to birds and mammals that eat them.

Tracking genetic remnants

New species like these could affect the fish and mammals people hunt and eat, if they were to arrive in Pond Inlet. After just a few years of shipping, a handful of possibly non-native species have already been discovered, including the invasive red-gilled mudworm (Marenzellaria viridis), and a potentially invasive tube dwelling amphipod. Both are known to reach high densities, alter the characteristics of the seafloor sediment and compete with native species

© Kimberly Howland A cargo ship passes through Milne Inlet, Nunavut.

Baffinland, the company that runs the Mary River Mine, is seeking to double its annual output of iron ore. If the expansion proceeds, up to 176 ore carriers will pass through Milne Inlet during the open-water season.

Although the future of Arctic shipping remains uncertain, it’s an upward trend that needs to be watched. In Canada, researchers are working with Indigenous partners in communities with high shipping activity — including Churchill, Manitoba; Pond Inlet and Iqaluit in Nunavut; Salluit, Quebec and Nain, Newfoundland — to establish an invasive species monitoring network. One of the approaches includes collecting water and testing it for genetic remnants shed from scales, faeces, sperm and other biological material.

© Christopher Mckindsey

 Members of the 2019 field team from Pond Inlet and Salluit filter eDNA from water samples collected from Milne Inlet.

This environmental DNA (eDNA) is easy to collect and can help detect organisms that might otherwise be difficult to capture or are in low abundance. The technique has also improved baseline knowledge of coastal biodiversity in other areas of high shipping, a fundamental step in detecting future change.

Some non-native species have already been detected in the Port of Churchill using eDNA surveillance and other sampling methods, including jellyfish, rainbow smelt and an invasive copepod species.

Efforts are underway to expand the network across the Arctic as part of the Arctic Council’s Arctic Invasive Alien Species Strategy to reduce the spread of invasive species.

The Arctic is often called the frontline of the climate crisis, and because of its rapid rate of warming, the region is beset by invasions of all kinds, from new species to new shipping routes. These forces could entirely remake the ocean basin within the lifetimes of people alive today, from frozen, star-lit vistas, populated by unique communities of highly adapted organisms, to something quite different.

The Arctic is changing faster than scientists can document, yet there will be opportunities, such as growing carbon sinks, that could benefit the wildlife and people who live there. Not all changes to our warming world will be wholly negative. In the Arctic, as elsewhere, there are winners and losers.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Jørgen Berge receives funding from the Norwegian Research Council (300333).

Carlos Duarte receives funding from King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and the Independent Research Fund of Denmark.

Dorte Krause-Jensen receives funding from various governmental research funds, such as the Independent Research Fund, Denmark, and private research funds, including the Velux Foundations.

Karen Filbee-Dexter receives funding from ArcticNet, the Norwegian Blue Forest Network, the Australian Research Council, and the Norwegian Research Council (BlueConnect).

Kimberly Howland receives funding from Fisheries and Ocean Canada; Natural Resources Canada and Polar Knowledge Canada.

Philippe Archambault receives funding from ArcticNet.

CANADA

Hundreds rally outside Indian consulate in solidarity with protesting farmers

© Talia Ricci/CBC Demonstrators hold signs in solidarity with farmers in India, who say new agriculture laws will slash their crop prices and result in their exploitation.

Hundreds of people gathered in front of the Indian consulate in downtown Toronto on Saturday to show their support for farmers in India who are protesting new laws they say will destroy their livelihoods.

Those who organized at the consulate are Canadians in the Sikh community who say the farmers work tirelessly to feed India and the world — and that the farmers need support now more than ever as their right to peacefully protest has been blocked by police who've used methods like tear gas, batons and water cannons against them.

"Our farmers are the backbone of our nation. This issue has hit close to home ... their lives matter to us, " protester Mansi Kaur said over the sound of dozens of car horns sounding off at the rally.

Kaur gathered with hundreds of others who were wearing masks and holding signs in support of the farmers, with slogans like "Justice for Farmers" and "No Farmers, No Food." Others remained in their cars at the demonstration.

She said she was there with others to protest three new laws in India that they say will see crop prices slashed and farmers exploited by large corporations.

Thousands of farmers in India have been camping out on the outskirts of the capital for the past 10 days until the new agriculture laws are withdrawn. They are heading towards New Delhi as they continue their calls.

Farmers had also been protesting the laws for nearly two months in Punjab and Haryana states.

India's government failed to break a deadlock with farmers on Saturday and will meet again on Wednesday, the agriculture minister and union leaders said.

Farmers have long been considered the heart and soul of India, where agriculture supports more than half of the country's 1.3 billion people, but the farmers have also seen their economic clout diminish over the last three decades.

The Indian government said the purpose of the legislation is to bring reform that will allow farmers to market their produce and boost production through private investment.

© Anushree Fadnavis/Reuters

Farmers have been camping along at least five major highways on the outskirts of the India's capital and have said they won't leave until the government rolls back new agricultural laws.

Farmers fear the legislation will eventually dismantle India's regulated markets and stop the government from buying wheat and rice at guaranteed prices, leaving them to negotiate with private buyers. The are calling for the government to repeal the laws and retain mandatory government purchases, among other demands.

"It would be like if we went to work, and there was no longer a minimum wage," said Nanki Kaur, who was also at the rally in Toronto. "They feed us. It's up to us to stand up for them."
Solidarity from the Sikh diaspora in Canada

Jaskaran Sandhu, director of administration at the World Sikh Organization of Canada, said the protests happening in India are "historic" and images from the protests have deeply affected those in the Sikh disapora in Canada.

"For all of us here, we have family and friends back home. So when we watch the images of police brutality, when we watch the images and the videos from on the ground of water cannons and tear gasses and charges from the police with sticks, it really hurts us," he said.

But Sandhu said it's also been inspiring to see the perseverance of the farmers who are continuing to assert their right to peacefully protest, despite the actions from police.

© Michael Charles Cole/CBC 

Supporters hold a sign that reads 'No Farmers, No Food' outside the Indian consulate in Toronto.

Sandhu added that many of those at the Toronto rally have family that are at the protests in India, including seniors, which has made the situation scary to watch from afar.

"As Canadians, as Sikhs and Punjabis living here in the diaspora, we want to ensure that our people are safe and the right to peaceful protest is protected," Sandhu said, adding that those in the community across Canada are having these same conversations in their households.

Car rallies have also been organized in cities like Vancouver and Ottawa to show solidarity, Sandhu said. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's comments earlier this week that called the Indian government's response to protesters "concerning" was a large help as well, he said.

Those comments led to a swift reaction from officials in India who said the Trudeau was "ill-informed." Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ministers have also framed the farmers as "anti-national"— a term the government has long used against its critics.

"We need folks to stand up and speak out so the Indian government knows they're being watched," Sandhu said.
Blankets, menstruation kits among supplies sent by fundraising group

Along with rallying, Sikh communities in Canada have been supporting the protesters in India by sending them supplies to continue their efforts, said Gurpartap Singh Toor, a volunteer with Khalsa Aid Canada.

"There's been an overwhelming amount of support," he said.

© Michael Charles Cole/CBC 

'This issue has hit close to home ... their lives matter to us,' one demonstrator in Toronto said.

The fundraising group is focusing on bolstering the health and safety of the demonstrating farmers, Toor said. Khalsa Aid Canada has sent fire extinguishers — as the farmers are cooking on the ground as they camp out — as well as devices to spray down the campsites to prevent mosquito bites that can sometimes cause illnesses.

Toor said menstruation kits have also been sent due to an "unprecedented" number of women at the protests, along with portable washrooms to provide safe and private spaces for women to use the bathroom. The cold weather at night has also been an issue, so Toor said the organization has sent blankets and shelters for the farmers, particularly for the seniors who are protesting.

"I would say a lot of people from Canada have family that are at the protests right now ... safety is the biggest concern," he said, adding that the fear of continued police violence remains high.

Toor said the farmers have asked him and others to create as much public awareness about the issue as possible. "It brings a lot of global eyes on India, so the government knows if they act with a bad intent, then the world is watching," he said.

Arab Spring: How the West missed a date with history

Ten years ago, as protests flared across the Arab world, Western governments failed to meet a date with destiny and help nurture dreams of democracy, missing an unprecedented chance to shape real reform.

© ODD ANDERSEN As protests flared across the Arab world, Western nations failed to seize the moment to support the cries for freedom

History will not judge them kindly, said about 20 Western officials, activists and analysts, who talked to AFP on the 10th anniversary of the Arab Spring.

"This was a lost opportunity for the Middle East to modernise and take the first steps on the road to freedom and democracy," said Nobel Peace Prize winner, and former leading figure of the Egyptian opposition, Mohamed ElBaradei.

© Bertrand GUAY

 French former foreign minister Michele Alliot-Marie (R) with her Tunisian counterpart Ahmed Abderraouf Ounais

"The West opted to be a silent observer rather than an active supporter... This did not help the Arab Spring."

On December 17, 2010 an impoverished Tunisian street vendor unwittingly ignited a chain of uprisings which ricocheted across the region, leaving upheaval and chaos in their wake.

© Mahmud Hams Former leading figure of the Egyptian opposition and ex-head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei (C) joins protests in Cairo's Tahrir square

Brought down by grinding poverty and petty police harassment, Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire and so lit the touch paper of simmering anger at decades of autocratic leadership in Tunisia.

The Tunisian protests swept like a contagion, ultimately toppling several of the region's iron-fisted rulers in a generational geo-political earthquake.

But, caught by surprise, Western nations such as the United States and France failed to seize the moment to support the cries for freedom.

ElBaradei, who had returned to Egypt in 2010 after many years at the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), voiced bitter regret at the lack of planning from the international community.

© LOUAI BESHARA Arms were funneled to opposition groups in Syria but not a coveted anti-aircraft system

"We knew what we did not want, but we did not have time to even discuss what the day after should look like. We were in kindergarten, but had to move to university," he told AFP.

© Brendan SMIALOWSKI On her July 2012 visit to Egypt, US secretary of state Hillary Clinton's hotel in Cairo was besieged by protesters

"We did not have the tools nor the institutions," said the former top diplomat, who has repeatedly denied accusations that he was little more than a puppet of the West.

"You can't just jump from 60 years of  authoritarianism into a full-fledged democracy," he argued

.

© MOHAMMED ABED Experts suggest the West was blind to what was happening as uprisings spread through the Middle East and North Africa and lacked courage to seize the initiative

"The absence of a balanced vision and a long-term policy (from the West) has come back to haunt us."

© KHALED DESOUKI Several of the region's iron-fisted rulers were toppled, including Libya's Moamer Kadhafi (L)

- Manipulation fears -

But it was not through want of trying on the part of some.

Even before the Arab Spring, a host of international non-governmental organisations and semi-official associations had set up in the region in a bid to help nurture a desire for democracy.

© Gillian HANDYSIDE The rulers of the Arab Spring countries, their terms in power and what happened to them

NGOs such as the US organisations Freedom House, the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute found themselves rubbing shoulders on the ground along with German foundations.

Funded partly through public finances, with agendas often coloured by political platforms, they tried to teach the ways of peaceful activism, from the use of social networks to dreaming up slogans which would capture the imagination of the crowds.

© Delil SOULEIMAN More than 380,000 have now died in Syria's conflict and much of the country lies in ruins

Such moves did not go down well with the dictators in power.

In late 2011, some 43 local and international staff working for NGOs were accused by Egyptian authorities of interference in domestic affairs. The foreigners, mostly Americans, were expelled, while the local staff were jailed.

© FETHI BELAID Only Tunisia has emerged from the Arab Spring with a fragile democracy

When the then US ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, travelled to the Syrian rebel city of Hama in July 2011 in support of the protesters, they showered him with red roses.

But the visit enraged the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad, which accused Washington of being directly implicated in the events and trying to increase tensions which "damage Syria's security and stability."

Observers doubt however that foreign governments had a direct hand in fomenting the protests.

"If they are to succeed, such battles have to come from within. The vision, the leadership, the numbers, the ideas have to be national," said Srdja Popovic, co-founder of the Serbian organisation Canvas, which supports pro-democracy movements.

Researcher Stephane Lacroix, from the Paris Institute of Political Studies, also dismissed the foreign conspiracy theory.

"Those who see imperialism everywhere fail to believe that individuals are capable of organising themselves because they have had enough," he said.

Experts appear united in their assessment that the West was blind to what was happening, and lacked courage to seize the initiative.

"They took several months to think about it, and then very quickly closed the door on this experience of democratic change," said Nadim Houry, from the Paris-based think tank Arab Reform Initiative.

"In 2012 to 2013, we saw them return with a vision based purely on regional security."

- Tunisia -

In the long, difficult months of 2011, each country was to go through its own particular tumult.

In Tunisia, former colonial power France failed to step up in support of the protesters as anger against long-time autocratic leader Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali grew.

Then foreign minister Michele Alliot-Marie resigned in February 2011, only weeks after offering Paris's help in resolving Tunisia's "security situation", which by then had already cost 35 lives, according to NGOs.

She was also lambasted for holidaying in Tunisia at the end of 2010 despite the protests.

The French foreign ministry "was perfectly aware of the fragility of the Tunisian system," said Francois Nicoullaud, former French ambassador to Tehran.

But government decision-makers, lulled by cosy ties with Tunis, "refused to listen to them (the French foreign ministry)".

Paris had also long ignored opposition leaders in exile, believing Ben Ali's rule was set in stone.

"We thought these dictatorships would go on forever. There was little point in talking to the opposition, which was not taken seriously," said Lacroix.

Moncef Marzouki, the north African country's first democratically elected president who had spent time in Paris and was a leading member of the Tunisian human rights movement, was just not on French radars, he added.

As for the Islamist Ennahdha party, which won the first post-revolution elections, Paris sought to keep its distance from its leader Rached Ghannouchi.

When Ben Ali was forced to flee after 23 years in power -- the first of the region's long-time dictators to cede to pressure from the street -- France was left without any interlocutors in Tunisia.

- Egypt -

The next country to catch fire was Egypt, where Hosni Mubarak had been in power since 1981.

A close ally of the United States, it enjoyed some $1.3 billion a year in US military aid -- amounting to a staggering $58 billion since 1979, according to US think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The demonstrations which erupted in Cairo's iconic Tahrir Square on January 25, 2011 captured the interest of the US administration of then president Barack Obama.

But his secretary of state Hillary Clinton remained sceptical, despite her history-making stroll through the square in March that year.

"She was not convinced," said Egyptian activist Sherif Mansour, then a member of the Freedom House group.

Clinton was concerned about reactions to the events among America's key Gulf partners, some of whom were wary both of the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and of Washington dropping its longtime ally, Cairo, observers said.

Indeed, in June 2012 after Mubarak stepped down, the Brotherhood's candidate Mohammed Morsi became Egypt's first ever democratically elected president.

His election placed Washington in an awkward position -- the US administration had championed free and democratic elections, only to be confronted with an Islamist leader as the new president.

On the streets, Morsi's victory was immediately contested and the US accused of having helped the Islamists "steal the election" by not having opposed him, betraying the democratic hopes of the Egyptian people.

When Clinton visited Egypt again and met Morsi in July 2012, her hotel in Cairo was besieged by protesters, and demonstrators in Alexandria pelted her convoy with tomatoes and shoes.

Less than a year later, Morsi was ousted by the military led by then general Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi.

The move found support among the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, as Sisi ordered a bloody crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood.

But relations with the US were plunged into a war of semantics -- when is a coup not a coup?

Under US law, US military aid is automatically suspended if there has been a coup d'etat, so while Washington initially froze a portion of its aid, the Obama administration never went as far as to qualify the events in Egypt as a coup.

Even though Cairo failed to heed calls from the US to improve human rights, US aid to Egypt was restored in 2015, mainly because the Egyptian military had become a key ally in the fight against jihadist groups in the Sinai, whose rise had alarmed Israel.

"It was a time of turmoil," said Frank Wisner, Obama's special envoy to Egypt at the time, highlighting what he said was the Egyptians' overwhelming desire for stability and democracy.

"Could the United States have changed the fundamental shift in historical circumstances? I certainly believe we couldn't have. Could we have sent a different signal? Sure."

- Libya -

Next door in Libya, another drama was playing out after protests against long-time leader Moamer Kadhafi erupted in February 2011.

France pushed for an armed intervention in support of the demonstrators, and UN resolution 1973 agreed the use of force to protect civilians from the fierce regime backlash.

NATO-led air strikes began in March but went beyond the UN resolution, drawing criticism from Russia and China.

And as the conflict dragged on, it became clear how fragile the state's institutions had become under Kadhafi's autocratic rule.

For four decades, he had "governed without a state, leaning on the security apparatus and a system of tribes," said Lacroix.

"The country never had a political life, no parties, no civil society, no associations."

Kadhafi was eventually cornered while on the run and killed in October 2011.

But without its "brotherly leader and guide of the revolution" as Kadhafi had dubbed himself, the country was headless, allowing tribal rivalries to quickly flare up.

"What we hadn't seen sufficiently, was how much it would take... to rebuild the state," said former French president Francois Hollande, who was in the political opposition in Paris at the time.

There was a growing idea in Europe that "democracy can implant itself without the need to defend or nurture it," Hollande said.

Foreign governments should refrain "from imposing a political system... We should not be choosing the leaders. They are for the people to elect," he insisted.

- Syria -

And then into the mayhem, came Syria.

Protests erupted on March 15, 2011 against Assad, who took over in 2000 on the death of his father, Hafez, following almost 30 years in power.

But the demonstrations were soon met by a brutal regime crackdown.

"When we began the revolt, it was like we were walking through a dark forest," said Syrian activist Ibrahim al-Idlebi.

When the EU and the US "issued statements supporting us, and calling on the regime to refrain from the use of force against civilians, to us these felt like flashlights to follow."

Such support was like "a salvation," added Idlebi, who fled his home in northwestern Idlib and now lives in Turkey.

More than 380,000 have now died, much of Syria lies in ruins, and almost a decade later, Assad remains in place, having -- with the help of allies Russia and Iran -- recovered two-thirds of the territory he lost.

"There just wasn't a plan," said Idlebi, of the Western intervention. "A lot of money was being handed out to groups and people who just didn't know what to do with it."

Arms were also funnelled to opposition groups in Syria, but not a coveted anti-aircraft system which handed Assad's forces dominion in the skies.

The US administration refused opposition pleas to be allowed to protect themselves from bombs dropped from the air, fearing the weapons could be turned against Israel, or fall into the hands of jihadists.

In the end, Western aid failed to change the military balance, said Haid Haid, a senior researcher for the London-based think tank Chatham House.

"No Western power took measures that could actually make a difference on the ground. If they had eliminated Assad's air power, that would not just have tipped the military balance, but also saved the lives of tens of thousands of people," he said.

Divided and weakened, the political opposition was wracked by internecine quarrels and rapidly became consumed by radical Islamists.

"There was a disconnect between the activists and the armed groups. Building bridges between those people was a major focus of US diplomacy for many years. I don't think that was ultimately successful," admitted Alex Bick, Syria director at the National Security Council during the Obama administration.

Hollande, too, acknowledged failure, saying he warned his European allies of what was to come: "Refugees and terrorism. We have had both of them".

- Thin red line -

But the final death knell to Western influence in the region was when Obama drew back at the last minute from striking at Assad's regime for its use of chemical weapons against rebel areas.

In August 2012, Obama said any use of toxic arms by the Syrian army against civilians would be a "red line" and warned it "would change my calculus" about using US military force in the country.

In August 2013, a large-scale attack was launched on Ghouta, in the suburbs of Damascus. A declassified French intelligence assessment determined in early September that sarin gas had been unleashed on civilians. Activists put the reported death toll at about 1,000.

But despite Obama's earlier stand, no US air strike came until 2018 when his successor President Donald Trump joined forces with France and Britain after an alleged chemical weapons attack on the then rebel-held town of Douma.

"The United States never wanted to attack," said former Dutch diplomat to Iraq, Nikolaos Van Dam.

And setting a red line was always "a weak position," he argued.

"It suggests: you can use cluster bombs, barrel bombs, phosphorus, all kinds of weapons. But not chemical weapons. It is a kind of indirect permission, condoning the use of everything else."

Hollande argues that Obama, in the end, refused to take military action as he had made an election promise to withdraw American troops from conflicts in the Middle East and because European leaders, such as Britain and Germany, were against it.

"I had agreed an operation with him. The militaries were working on it, the diplomats were preparing to legitimise it at the UN Security Council. Everything was ready," said Hollande.

"The next day he said, 'I'm going to ask Congress to authorise it.' That's when I knew it was over."

With a sigh, the former French leader acknowledged: "It was a strategic error."

Seven years on, only Tunisia has emerged from the Arab Spring with a fragile democracy.

Sisi still rules over a repressive regime in Egypt, with newly-emboldened Assad still in power in Syria.

And after a decade of conflict, Libya has just agreed to hold elections in December 2021, but remains torn between the UN-recognised government in Tripoli and the forces of Kadhafi loyalist and strongman Khalifa Haftar in the east.

Paris-based expert Houry doesn't lay all the blame for today's outcome at the feet of Western countries, saying it was "not meant to end up this way".

"But in this huge failure and waste, this human tragedy, they failed to make their date with destiny."

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