It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Monday, June 10, 2024
Wire-cut forensic examinations currently too unreliable for court, new study says
Analysis has implications for other forensic examinations that rely on large databases and algorithms for comparisons
UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA-LINCOLN
A research article published June 10 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences highlights the importance of careful application of high-tech forensic science to avoid wrongful convictions.
In a study with implications for an array of forensic examinations that rely on “vast databases and efficient algorithms,” researchers found the odds of a false match significantly increase when examiners make millions of comparisons in a quest to match wires found at a crime scene with the tools allegedly used to cut them.
The rate of mistaken identifications could be as high as one in 10 or more, concluded the researchers, who are affiliated with the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence (CSAFE), based in Ames, Iowa.
“It is somewhat of a counterintuition,” said co-author Susan VanderPlas, an assistant professor of statistics at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “You are more likely to find the right match – but you’re also more likely to find the wrong match.”
VanderPlas worked as a research professor at CSAFE before moving to Nebraska in 2020. Co-authors of the study, “Hidden Multiple Comparisons Increase Forensic Error Rates,” were Heike Hoffmann and Alicia Carriquiry, both affiliated with CSAFE and Iowa State University’s Department of Statistics.
Wire cuts and tool marks are used frequently as evidence in robberies, bombings, and other crimes. In the case of wire cuts, tiny striations on the cut ends of a wire may be matched to one of many available tools in a toolbox or garage. Comparing the evidence to more tools increases the chances that similar striations may be found on unrelated tools, resulting in a false accusation and conviction.
Wire-cutting evidence has been at issue in at least two cases that garnered national attention, including one where the accused was linked to a bombing based on a small piece of wire, a tiny fraction of an inch in diameter, that was matched to a tool found among the suspect’s belongings.
“Wire-cutting evidence is used in court and, based on our findings, it shouldn’t be – at least not without presenting additional information about how many comparisons were made,” VanderPlas said.
Wire cutting evidence is evaluated by comparing the striations found on the cut end of a piece of wire against the cutting blades of tools suspected to have been used in the crime. In a manual test, the examiner slides the end of the wire along the path created along another piece of material cut by the same tool to see where the pattern of striations match.
An automated process uses a comparison microscope and pattern-matching algorithms, to find possible matches pixel by pixel.
This can result in thousands upon thousands of individual comparisons, depending upon the length of the cutting blade, diameter of the wire, and even the number of tools checked.
For example, VanderPlas said she and her husband tallied the various tin snips, wire cutters, pliers and similar tools stored in their garage and came up with a total of 7 meters in blade length.
Examiners may not even be aware of the number of comparisons they are making as they search for a matching pattern, because those comparisons are hidden in the algorithms.
“This often-ignored issue increases the false discovery rate, and can contribute to the erosion of public trust in the justice system through conviction of innocent individuals,” the study authors wrote.
Forensic examiners typically testify based upon subjective rules about how much similarity is required to make an identification, the study explained. The researchers could not obtain error rate studies for wire-cut examinations and used published error rates for ballistics examinations to estimate possible false discovery rates for wire-cut examinations.
Before wire-cut examinations are used as evidence in court, the researchers recommended that:
Examiners report the overall length or area of materials used in the examination process, including blade length and wire diameter. This would enable examination-wide error rates to be calculated.
Studies be conducted to assess both false discovery and false elimination error rates when examiners are making difficult comparisons. Studies should link the length and area of comparison to error rates.
The number of items searched, comparisons made and results returned should be reported when a database is used at any stage of the forensic evidence evaluation process.
The VanderPlas article joins other reports calling for improvements in forensic science in America. The National Academies Press, publisher of the PNAS journal and other publications of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, also published the landmark 2009 report “Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward.”
NTU Singapore-led study estimates that between 1980 and 2020, 135 million premature deaths could be linked to fine particulate matter pollution
NEWS RELEASE
NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY
IMAGE:
(L-R): DIRECTOR OF EARTH OBSERVATORY OF SINGAPORE (EOS) AND PROFESSOR IN EARTH SCIENCE AT NTU’S ASIAN SCHOOL OF THE ENVIRONMENT (ASE) PROFESSOR BENJAMIN HORTON, NTU’S ASE AND LKCMEDICINE ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR STEVE YIM, WHO IS ALSO PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR AT NTU’S EOS, AND NTU’S SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT (HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES) AND DEAN OF NTU’S KONG CHIAN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE (LKCMEDICINE) DISTINGUISHED UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR JOSEPH SUNG, PRESENTING A PAIR OF PLASTINATED HUMAN LUNGS.
A study led by researchers from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore) revealed that fine particulate matter from 1980 to 2020 was associated with approximately 135 million premature deaths globally.
In the study, premature deaths refer to fatalities that occur earlier than expected based on average life expectancy, resulting from preventable or treatable causes such as diseases or environmental factors.
The study found that the impact of pollution from fine particulate matter was worsened by climate variability phenomena such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the North Atlantic Oscillation, and led to a 14 per cent rise in premature deaths.
The researchers explain that during such weather events, the increased temperature, changes in wind patterns, and reduced precipitation can lead to stagnant air conditions and the accumulation of pollutants in the atmosphere. These result in higher concentrations of PM2.5 particles that are particularly harmful to human health when inhaled.
Fine particulate matter, or PM2.5, refers to particulate matter 2.5 micrometres in diameter or smaller. These tiny particles come from vehicle emissions, industrial processes, and natural sources such as wildfires and dust storms.
As they are so small, PM2.5 particles can easily get into the air we breathe and penetrate deep into our lungs, leading to a range of health problems, especially for vulnerable groups like children, the elderly, and people with respiratory conditions.
The study estimated that a third of the premature deaths from 1980 to 2020 were associated with stroke (33.3 per cent); another third with ischemic heart disease (32.7 per cent), while chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, and lung cancer made up the rest of premature deaths.
To understand how PM2.5 pollution affects mortality rates, the researchers studied satellite data from NASA on the levels of fine particulate matter in the Earth's atmosphere. They also analysed statistics on the incidence and mortality of diseases linked to pollution from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, based in the US. Additionally, they considered information on climate patterns from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
While previous studies have explored aspects of air quality and climate, this study had a global scope and analysed over 40 years of data. By examining how specific climate patterns affect air pollution in different regions, it offers fresh insights into the complex relationship between climate and air quality.
Study co-author Distinguished University Professor Joseph Sung,NTU’s Senior Vice President (Health and Life Sciences), and Dean of NTU’s LKCMedicine, said: “Our study highlights how climate patterns affect air pollution, and this is crucial for healthcare professionals because it directly impacts public health. The effects of climate change and the environment on human health are not lesser than those of genomics and lifestyle patterns, and they have been increasing over the past decades. By recognising these patterns, healthcare providers can better prepare for potential increases in patients seeking treatment for pollution-related ailments. Additionally, this knowledge underscores the importance of proactive measures to reduce pollution and mitigate its health impacts, ultimately helping healthcare systems manage and alleviate the burden of pollution-related illnesses on communities.”
The findings from this study, which represents an advance in understanding how environmental challenges affect the health of the global population, reflect NTU's commitment to responding to the needs and challenges of healthy living and ageing, one of humanity’s grand challenges that the University seeks to address through its NTU 2025 strategic plan.
The study is also part of NTU’s S$50 million interdisciplinary climate research programme, the Climate Transformation Programme (CTP). Hosted by EOS and funded by Singapore’s Ministry of Education, the CTP aims to investigate climate change, develop, inspire, and accelerate knowledge-based solutions, and educate future leaders to establish the stable climate and environment necessary for a resilient and sustainable Southeast Asia.
Co-author of the study Professor Benjamin Horton, Director of Earth Observatory of Singapore, said: "Our study aligns seamlessly with NTU Singapore's ambitious Climate Transformation Programme (CTP), which aims to tackle the pressing challenges of climate change through interdisciplinary research and collaboration. By investigating the intricate relationship between weather patterns and deadly air pollution, we contribute valuable insights that will inform evidence-based solutions and policies to safeguard public health and promote environmental resilience in Southeast Asia and beyond.” Prof Horton is also Professor in Earth Science at NTU’s Asian School of the Environment.
This study was also funded by several awards and a grant from the Ministry of Education, Singapore. It is also part of The Prudential EOS Climate Impacts Initiative, for which Prudential Services Singapore funded NTU’s EOS to conduct a two-year, two-phase study to understand better the impacts of climate change on air quality and its associated health impacts.
The study also saw participation from NTU President's Chair in Genomics Professor Stephan Schuster, who is also Deputy Director at the Singapore Centre for Environmental Life Sciences Engineering (SCELSE). Healthcare professionals and researchers from The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Imperial College London, UK, Sun Yat-sen University, China, and Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore were also involved. The findings were published in April in the peer-reviewed journal Environment International.
Assessing the interplay between climate phenomena, pollution, and deaths
This study used data from a dataset managed by NASA called MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2). The dataset provides monthly information about the concentration of fine particulate matter on the Earth's surface.
The PM2.5 data analysed for this 40-year study spans from January 1980 to December 2020 and gives detailed information about air pollution levels in specific areas.
The study looked at how changes in air quality are affected by climate patterns, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and North Atlantic Oscillation weather patterns, obtained from indices assessed by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The researchers also used data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation based in the United States on global deaths and occurrences of pollution-linked diseases, which include lower respiratory infections, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke, and ischemic heart disease.
The researchers found that 363 major air pollution episodes happened worldwide over the past four decades, with an average of nine episodes yearly. The duration of an air pollution episode ranged from two to nine months, with 2002 being the year with the highest number of air pollution episodes (15 episodes), followed by 2004 and 2006 (14 episodes each year).
The study estimated that Asia had the highest number of premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 pollution between 1980 and 2020, at 98.1 million, with China and India reaching 49.0 million and 26.1 million deaths, respectively. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Japan also had significant numbers of PM2.5-attributable premature deaths, ranging from 2 to 5 million each.
The researchers estimate that the three weather phenomena simultaneously caused approximately 7,000 more global premature deaths annually, with the Indian Ocean Dipole phenomena having the largest impact on the number of deaths, followed by North Atlantic Oscillation, and then El Niño.
All three weather patterns coincided in 1994, 1997, 2002, and 2015, with the Southeast Asian region being the most vulnerable. Around 3,100 more deaths occurred in that region each year due to the higher impact of pollution worsened by the weather patterns.
Assoc Prof Yim added: “This study underscores the importance of prioritising public health when developing air quality strategies. Instead of solely focusing on pollutant levels, governments should also consider the health effects of air pollution. This means evaluating policies based on their impact on reducing pollution-related health issues, especially highlighting the need for targeted interventions to mitigate pollution during specific weather conditions.”
Prof Sung added: “As our study has shown that PM2.5 pollution could have significant health consequences, health agencies need to allocate resources accordingly. This includes ensuring that healthcare services are equipped to handle the demands related to PM2.5 pollution-related illnesses. By emphasising health outcomes in air quality management, governments can better protect public health and improve overall well-being."
The team of researchers will be conducting more detailed studies for a deeper understanding of local air pollution patterns and further detailing the mechanisms behind how climate patterns influence the formation and reduction of PM2.5.
Global health impacts of ambient fine particulate pollution associated with climate variability
Interventions against misinformation also increase skepticism toward reliable sources
UNIVERSITY OF ZURICH
Efforts to tackle false information through fact-checking or media literacy initiatives increases the public’s skepticism toward “fake news”. However, they also breed distrust in genuine, fact-based news sources, a UZH-led study using online survey experiments in the US, Poland and Hong Kong shows.
Studies have shown that few people actually come across false information in their day-to-day lives. And yet, concerns about the harm “fake news” may do have increased in recent years. High-profile events such as the Capitol Riots, vaccine-hesitancy during the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have fueled these concerns. At the same time, fact-checking initiatives are on the rise. Major news platforms like BBC and CNN have incorporated fact-checking into their regular offerings, while media literacy campaigns have flourished, with programs designed to educate the public on how to make sense of what is true and false.
A study conducted by the Universities of Zurich, California and Warsaw now shows that these efforts have given rise to an unintended paradox: the very tools used to combat misinformation are fomenting distrust in all news, including from reliable sources.
Interventions foster a broader sense of doubt
The researchers conducted three online survey experiments involving 6,127 participants in the US, Poland and Hong Kong to test the effectiveness of three corrective strategies currently used to combat misinformation – fact-checking, media literacy initiatives and dedicated news reporting – and compared them with three alternative strategies. The idea of the redesigned strategies was to foster a critical, yet not overly skeptical, engagement with information. For instance, rather than focusing on whether news is either true or false, one of the redesigned strategies emphasized understanding political biases in news reporting.
The study revealed that the traditional tools as well as the alternative strategies used to debunk myths foster a broader sense of doubt among the public, even toward legitimate information. The redesigned strategies did not significantly outperform traditional tactics in improving the public’s ability to distinguish fact from fiction, although they were slightly better at doing so.
Weighing up potential gains and harms
“Public discourse on fake news not only increases skepticism toward false information but also erodes trust in reliable news sources, which play a key role in functioning democracies,” says first author Emma Hoes. According to the UZH political scientist, the potential gains from reducing misperceptions must be carefully weighed against the broader implications of heightened skepticism. “This is particularly the case in many Western democracies, where reliable, fact-based news is fortunately still much more common than misinformation,” she says.
Hoes and her fellow researchers therefore call for a deeper overhaul of current approaches to misinformation and the need to develop nuanced strategies. “The path forward is to educate the public on discerning facts with a critical eye, but without leading them to dismiss otherwise reliable information and sources outright.”
EDMONTON — Alberta New Democrat legislature member Shannon Phillips is expected to detail today why she's stepping down before finishing her third term in office.
The former environment minister plans to leave her Lethbridge-West seat on July 1.
The decision comes after the province’s law enforcement watchdog determined two police officers broke the rules surveilling Phillips in 2017.
UCP INFLUENCED?!
In May, Crown prosecutors decided not to charge the Lethbridge police over the surveillance.
An investigation determined Phillips was targeted over her environmental policies.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 10, 2024.
The Canadian Press
Paris mayor slams Macron's election call before Olympics
Agence France-Presse June 10, 2024 Olympic rings on the Eiffel Tower (Ludovic MARIN/AFP)
Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo described the prospect of French parliamentary elections just weeks before the start of the Paris Olympics as "extremely unsettling", while the International Olympic Committee played down any direct impact on the event.
"Like a lot of people I was stunned to hear the president decide to do a dissolution (of parliament)," she said of Macron's surprise address to the nation after European parliament elections on Sunday.
Hidalgo said she was "worried" by the election results -- which saw the far-right National Rally party inflict a heavy defeat on Macron's centrist allies -- and said that Macron "could not continue as before".
"But all the same, a dissolution just before the Games, it's really something that is extremely unsettling," the 64-year-old Socialist, a domestic political rival of the president, added during a visit to a Paris school.
The two-round parliamentary elections have been called for June 30 and July 7, with the Paris Olympics set to begin less than three weeks later on July 26.
The vote could lead to political instability in the event of another hung parliament in which no party wins a majority, or a seismic change if the far-right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen makes major gains.
Hidalgo stressed that from an operational perspective the election would not change the Olympics, a message echoed by the president of the IOC, Thomas Bach, who was with her during the school visit.
"I think that all the work of installing, of preparing the Games, the infrastructure, is behind us and what remains is to welcome the entire world and we will do it with the joy that we have to host these Olympic and Paralympic Games in Paris," Hidalgo said.
Bach said the elections are "a democratic process which will not disturb the Olympics".
"France is used to doing elections and they are going to do them once again. We will have a new government and a new parliament and everyone is going to support the Olympics," Bach said.
The Paris Olympics open with an unprecedented ceremony on the river Seine on July 26, the first time the opening festivities for a Summer Olympics have taken place outside the main stadium.
South Dakota political leaders condemn Nazi march at Capitol
South Dakota political leaders are condemning a Nazi demonstration that happened Saturday on the Capitol grounds in Pierre.
The state Department of Public Safety said in a news release that a group attempted an unscheduled protest on the Capitol grounds, without a permit. The Highway Patrol asked the group to leave and the march “ended without incident,” according to the news release.
Images and video circulated online of about a dozen people dressed in red and black, with black masks covering their faces, carrying a Nazi flag and unfurling it on the steps of the Capitol. Images also surfaced of a similar march in Deadwood. On her personal X (formerly Twitter) account, Gov. Kristi Noem wrote, “Nazis are not welcome here in South Dakota.
“We stand for life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness,” she wrote. “We reject all hatred and Nazis.”
A known neo-Nazi leader, Christopher Pohlhaus, appeared to claim responsibility for the march when he shared Noem’s post on his own X account and said “we occupied your steps for the entire time we intended to be there.” According to the Anti-Defamation League, Pohlhaus is a former Marine turned tattoo artist and leader of the neo-Nazi “Blood Tribe.”
Other South Dakota political leaders also condemned the marches. U.S. Sen. Mike Rounds tweeted, “This is disgusting. This racist behavior has no place in South Dakota or anywhere.” U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson tweeted of the incident, “This is atrocious.”
The activity is part of a resurgence of in-person demonstrations among white nationalist, neo-Nazi and far-right reactionary groups throughout the country, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center’s latest annual report on hate and extremism.
“For the first time since 2018, these racist activists, who together make up what is known as the white power movement, turned out in droves, holding 191 demonstrations in 2022 and 143 in 2023,” the report says.
EDITOR’S NOTE: This story has been updated with additional information several times since its initial publication.
South Dakota Searchlight is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. South Dakota Searchlight maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Seth Tupper for questions: info@southdakotasearchlight.com. Follow South Dakota Searchlight on Facebook and Twitter.
The horses emerge after 20 hours in containers and are the first of 40 to be released into the wild in this vast Central Asian nation over the next five years (Abduaziz MADYAROV/AFP)
After a few hesitant steps following a long flight from Prague, three Przewalski horses galloped off for the first time into the Kazakh steppe -- the native habitat of this endangered species.
The horses emerged after being locked in containers for 20 hours and are the first of 40 which are to be released into the wild in this vast Central Asian country over the next five years.
"We have been waiting for this moment for a very long time," Albert Salemgareyev from the Association for the Conservation of Biodiversity in Kazakhstan told AFP.
"A lot of work has been carried out in recent months in order for the Przewalski horses to come to Kazakhstan."
The project run by the Prague and Berlin zoo is aimed at preserving this species of stockily built horse with large heads which share a common ancestry with modern domestic horses but are genetically different.
Przewalski horses are commonly referred to as one of the world's last breeds of wild horse.
"We know that the Przewalski horses are suited to this steppe," said Salemgareyev. The horses are capable of resisting harsh winters like the ones in Kazakhstan where temperatures can drop below minus 30 degrees Celsius (minus 22 Fahrenheit) and food runs scarce.
The three first specimens -- Zorro, Ypsilonka and Zeta II -- arrived earlier this month. Four more landed in Kazakhstan from Berlin on Thursday morning and were released in the afternoon.
They will initially be under observation in the Golden Steppe nature reserve before being left in the wild.
"This year we will follow their health and see how they acclimatise," Salemgareyev said.
- Perilous journey -
The 5,000 kilometre (3,000-mile) journey -- first by plane to the town of Arqalyk and then by truck along bumpy roads into the heart of the steppe -- was not without risks.
Despite monitoring by experts, one of the horses sat down in his container even before taking off, raising the risk of stopping the blood flow to his legs.
"The journey could have been dangerous so we decided to leave him alone," said Miroslav Bobek, the director of Prague Zoo.
First documented by Russian scientist Nikolai Przhevalsky in 1881, the species was nearly extinct in the 1960s and is still listed as endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.
Prague Zoo, which has bred the horses since 1932 and keeps the world genealogy book for the species tracking all new births, launched a project to reintroduce them to Mongolia in 2011.
It transported 34 horses on Czech army planes there between 2011 and 2019, before the pandemic halted the project co-funded by zoos from across the globe.
There are now 2,000 Przewalski horses around the world, mainly in China and Mongolia but also in France, Russia and even living in the wild in the Chernobyl exclusion zone between Belarus and Ukraine.
Following the April 1986 Chernobyl disaster, 30 specimens were introduced there in 1998. The population has flourished and is now at 210.
In Kazakhstan, the Przewalski horse is not the only endangered species to have received special attention.
The round-snouted Saiga antelope, once on the brink of extinction, has also seen its population grow to about two million thanks to conservation policies by Kazakh authorities and non-governmental organisations.
Oranges – and all the things we can make from them – are big business. But the industry is facing a severe crisis.
About 50 million tonnes of oranges are grown each year, 34% of them in Brazil. Brazil is also the world’s biggest exporter of orange juice by far, producing about 70% of global supply.
But Brazil’s orange-growing regions have recently endured extreme drought and heat stress in the crop’s flowering period, as well as alarming rates of citrus greening disease – an incurable bacterial infection.
As a result, Brazil’s orange production is now forecast to fall by more than 24% in the 2024–25 season, which would be the country’s smallest harvest since the late 1980s.
The situation in Brazil has been exacerbated by declining production in other major orange-growing regions such as Florida, Israel, Spain and Argentina.
Combined, these pressures saw the futures price of frozen concentrated orange juice – which represents a contract for future delivery – hit an all time high last week.
So how might these global pressures impact Australia – and the breakfast rituals of so many?
Where does Australia get its juice?
Australia certainly grows a lot of oranges itself, with major plantations in the Riverina, Murray Valley and Riverland. We’re the world’s 12th-biggest producer of the fruit.
Despite this, strong demand means we still rely heavily on imports of frozen orange juice concentrate for about half of what is consumed here. About 80% of these imports come from Brazil, followed by Israel at about 10%.
About Half of Australia’s orange juice consumption is met by imports, most of which come from Brazil.
Australian consumers have not yet been as severely affected as those in Europe and the US, as local orange growers have been able to somewhat fill the supply gap in the domestic market. However, it’s likely our over-reliance on orange concentrate from Brazil will eventually lead to a supply crunch here.
At this stage, it’s hard to know exactly what the full effect on consumers will be. Frozen concentrated orange juice is typically used for cheaper retail orange juice, but the shortage will put upward pressure on the price of orange juice more broadly.
Orange juice concentrate has also been used for a wide range of commercial uses, including cosmetics, cleaning products, vitamin supplements and beverage blends. Many of these products rely on orange concentrate as a key ingredient. Therefore, we could also see significant supply disruptions and price spikes across a range of other products.
The situation could prompt consumers and producers to choose alternatives. In the breakfast beverage market, products blending orange juice with apple, mango or pineapple may become increasingly attractive to consumers on cost alone.
Mandarins may be a particularly promising alternative given how closely their taste and nutritional value aligns with orange juice.
Will the crisis benefit Australia’s orange industry?
In theory, the global shortage could be a boon for Australia’s local industry, given our favourable climate and well-established orange production regions.
Increasing our domestic production of oranges would not only help meet domestic demand, but could also help capitalise on the current shortage by increasing exports.
Australian producers will probably enjoy higher prices for orange juice in the short term, but our local citrus industry isn’t in the best shape. Some orange growers have been leaving the business due to rising production costs, poor supermarket prices and competition from imported products.
Rising input costs and a stubborn shortage of farm workers have intensified financial pressures, making profits elusive. On top of this, the market dominance of Australia’s two major supermarket chains has limited growers’ bargaining power, leading to unfavourable contract terms for many producers. How could our growers become more resilient?
There’s no quick fix for the current supply shortage of orange juice. But there are a number of steps that could at least make Australia’s citrus industry more resilient to this and any future supply shocks.
In Australia, labour accounts for a substantial amount of total production costs. More investment in automation could decrease the industry’s reliance on labour and ultimately push prices down.
Labour is one of the most significant costs for Australian citrus growers.
Recognising these technologies may be out of reach for many small and medium-sized growers, governments may need to investigate subsidising them.
Growers could increase their bargaining power against the big supermarkets by further diversifying who they sell to. This could include through direct-to-consumer sales, increasing their presence at farmer markets and engaging in collaborative marketing.
Establishing more fruit-processing facilities and getting better access to the international markets should also be priorities.
And lastly, Australia is highly vulnerable to the severe disruption that climate change poses to the agri-food sector, including orange production. We should prepare for this by conducting more comprehensive research into climate-resilient varieties, renewable energy sources, and offering education programs to growers. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Deadly heat: Record scorching temperatures kill the vulnerable and worsen inequality
Deadly heat. As we enter the month of June, scorching temperatures are already gripping parts of Arizona, California, Nevada, as well as countries around the world. In Arizona, extreme heat sent 11 people to the hospital as thousands waited to enter a campaign rally with Donald Trump. In India, 33 poll workers died from heatstroke on a single day last week during India’s national elections. In Mexico, it’s so hot, howler monkeys are falling dead from the trees. Data confirmed last month was the hottest May on record, putting the Earth on a 12-month streak of record-scorching and -breaking temperatures.
Meanwhile, a new report has found the rate Earth is warming hit an all-time high last year, with 92% of 2023 record heat caused by humans. On Wednesday, the World Meteorological Organization announced there’s an 80% chance the average global temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels for at least one of the next five years.
On the same day that report was released, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres gave a major speech on the climate crisis right next to the dinosaurs at the American Museum of Natural History here in New York City. The U.N. secretary-general said the world can still meet the 1.5-degree target if governments drastically speed up the phaseout of fossil fuels.
SECRETARY-GENERAL ANTÓNIO GUTERRES: Today is World Environment Day. It is also the day that the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service officially reports May 2024 as the hottest May in recorded history. This marks 12 straight months of the hottest months ever. For the past year, every turn of the calendar has turned up the heat. Our planet is trying to tell us something, but we don’t seem to be listening. Dear friends, the American Museum of Natural History is the ideal place to make the point. This great museum tells the amazing story of our natural world, of the vast forces that have shaped life on Earth over billions of years. And humanity is just one small blip on the radar. But like the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs, we are having an outsized impact. In the case of climate, we are not the dinosaurs. We are the meteor. We are not only in danger. We are the danger. But we are also the solution. So, dear friends, we are at a moment of truth. The truth is, almost 10 years since the Paris Agreement was adopted, the target of limiting long-term global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is hanging by a thread. The truth is, the world is spewing emissions so fast that by 2030 a far higher temperature rise will be all but guaranteed.
AMY GOODMAN: That’s the U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres in a major address on the climate crisis Wednesday to mark World Environment Day. Again, he was speaking at the Museum of Natural History here in New York.
For more on deadly heat and the climate crisis, we’re joined by two guests. Dr. Ruth Cerezo-Mota is a researcher at the Institute of Engineering at UNAM, the National Autonomous University of Mexico. She is joining us from the city of Mérida in the Mexican state of Yucatán. And joining us from North Carolina, Jeff Goodell. He’s covered the climate crisis for over 20 years at Rolling Stone magazine, the author of The New York Times best-seller, The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet. He’s got a new op-ed in The New York Times, “The Heat Wave Scenario That Keeps Climate Scientists Up at Night.”
What is that scenario, Jeff?
JEFF GOODELL: Well, that scenario is a look at what would happen if there were a five-day blackout during an extreme heat wave, looking at the kind of cascading consequences of these two events together. It was based on a study done by some researchers at Georgia Tech and Arizona State University. And it looked at — you know, we think of air conditioning as this sort of technofix for extreme heat. You know, often people will say to me, “What’s the problem with the planet heating up? We’ve just got to get more people air conditioning.” And this study really looked at the sort of false illusion of security that air conditioning has kind of provided for us.
It showed that in this blackout scenario where you had a total blackout for two days and then three days of restoring power, which is not kind of beyond the pale of kind of reality at all — we had a five-day blackout similar to that in Texas a few years ago. In that kind of a scenario in a city like Phoenix, where there’s virtually 100% penetration of air conditioning, you would have 800,000 emergency room visits and more than 13,000 deaths within 48 hours, which is hugely shocking and sort of disturbing findings.
And what’s interesting about this is the way that it shows that some of these — that technofixes, like air-conditioning and things, which are certainly important tools for living in hot climates, but they also amplify our vulnerability in ways that we don’t really understand or are not aware of. And so, air conditioning is sort of like this sort of sword of Damocles hanging over a city like Phoenix or a city like Austin or Houston or places like that, that are completely dependent upon it. And it just shows this sort of — our understanding of our vulnerability to extreme heat is far more complicated than we understand at first glance.
AMY GOODMAN: I mean, it’s amazing, this report. In Phoenix, about 800,000 people, roughly half the population, would need emergency medical treatment for heatstroke and other illnesses. The flood of people seeking care would overwhelm the city’s hospitals. More than 13,000 people would die. That’s in Phoenix. And, of course, that’s a place that 99% of the buildings are air-conditioned. Then you go to a place like Detroit, that’s even older, much less AC, and the number of people that would be affected, especially older people. And, of course, AC causes more global warming. I was really struck in your piece by what you called not a Hurricane Katrina, but a “heat Katrina.”
JEFF GOODELL: Yeah, exactly. And in comparing — in this study, in comparing the three cities, the other — in Atlanta and Detroit and Phoenix, the emergency room visits and death rate as a consequence of this five-day blackout that I described are far lower in these other cities because of less dependence upon air conditioning. So, in some ways, one of our sort of favorite technofixes for a hotter world, air conditioning, is increasing our vulnerability to that extreme heat. We’re building buildings that don’t have natural ventilation, that you can’t open windows in. So, when the power goes out, they become like convection ovens, and people die.
And, you know, there are a lot of things that we can do to reduce this vulnerability, things like solar panels on rooftops, microgrids, battery backups, so we’re not so dependent upon the grid itself, and also building buildings that have passive cooling, that don’t require air conditioning, that have natural ventilations, that are built in ways that are suitable for the hotter world that we’re building for ourselves.
AMY GOODMAN: And, of course, most of the rest of the world doesn’t have that kind of access to air conditioning. I want to go down to the Yucatán, where our next guest is, Ruth Cerezo-Mota. We just read this report about howler monkeys falling dead out of trees. If you can go from monkeys to human beings and what it means for Mexico right now, which is also — and Yucatán experienced a major heat wave, and yet at the same time you’ve just elected your first woman president in Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, who is a climate scientist, like yourself. In Mexico, nearly 61 people died from a record heat wave that just ended. Can you talk about all of this?
RUTH CEREZO-MOTA: Yeah. Hi. Yeah, we are experiencing really extreme weather. And I just want to complement something that you were saying about the air conditioner. Yeah, we need to consider that we — it’s also an unfair situation, because there is many people that will not be able to afford an air conditioning, so it’s not really a solution, either. But in any case, yes, people is dying here because of the heat. Animals — there was this report of hundreds of monkeys falling just from trees. And before that, the week before that, there were parrots, as well. And, of course, here in Yucatán, most of the city has air conditioning, but not all the small towns. So, yeah, it’s a big problem.
And yeah, on a very hot Sunday, last Sunday, we had elections, and there was massive participation, and we got our first president. But I don’t think it means good news in terms of environment, at least not now. When she was a mayor in Mexico City, there was a couple of things that she did that clearly was against or was not eco-friendly, like, for example, she built a bridge for cars, and in order to do that, they destroyed part of a wetland that it was of the very last natural reserves in Mexico City, which — and it turns out, it didn’t solve the problems. It didn’t solve the traffic that was supposed to be the problem. And because it was done over the wetlands, when it’s the rainy season, it gets flooded. So, then, you have — now you have floodings. You destroyed part of the environment, of the reserve, and you didn’t solve the issue that was the traffic in that area.
Also, while she was in campaign, she promises to continue what López Obrador is doing. She’s talking about the Tren Maya, that we know it has several impacts on the environment. There has been deforestation of at least 10 million trees. They have polluted the water. They have injected concrete on waterholes. And we are here in the peninsula. We don’t have surface body — water surface bodies. We all depend on underground water. And now that water is polluted by concrete and metals that they have been injecting to build the railroad.
So, definitely, in terms of environment, at least now, it’s not a good news. So, maybe once that Claudia start her period, maybe she distance herself from López Obrador and all these programs that go against the environment.
AMY GOODMAN: I wanted to go —
RUTH CEREZO-MOTA: But so far, it’s not a clear evidence of that.
AMY GOODMAN: I wanted to go to a clip, the heat wave also killing those 150 howler monkeys found dead on the forest floor, according to Mexico’s Environment Ministry, due to heatstroke, dehydration, malnutrition or the spraying of crops with toxic agrochemicals. This is Mexican biologist Gilberto Pozo in the Mexican state of Tabasco. GILBERTO POZO: [translated] We have registered 83 dead specimens. There are also orphaned calves, because many adults, adult females, have died. Some offspring have managed to survive. That is the problem with this species’ mortality in this very hot season in the state. The temperatures have reached 123 degrees Fahrenheit. And the wildlife is suffering because of the lack of water. There has been a lot of habitat degradation, so there is more light penetration, higher temperatures and water scarcity. Above all, there has been an increase in the number of fires, that damage the few habitats or refuges for these species.
AMY GOODMAN: Dr. Ruth Cerezo-Mota, would you like to elaborate on that, the flora, the fauna, and how all life is affected?
RUTH CEREZO-MOTA: Yeah, definitely, these extreme events that are becoming more frequent and more intense. And we knew that before. We knew that. We have already observations all around the world in different regions that these extreme events will become more often and more frequent and more intense when they happen, and not only the heat wave, but floodings and extreme precipitation. So, we knew all this, and we have been saying this for many, many years now.
So, it takes a toll on everything. So it affects health. It affects biodiversity. It affects — at the same time that we experience a heat wave, we also experience a very dry season. We are coming from last year, as well. It was very low levels of precipitation that we have here in the country, partially because of El Niño, but partially because of this climate change. So, there is no water. We have experienced, as well, not only Mexico, but in very — in other parts of the world, fires. We are getting these compound events in which you have all the perfect conditions for fires, for events that wouldn’t happen otherwise. So, we have a dry environment, windy and a lot of organic material, so then you have the perfect conditions to start the fires. And because it’s so hot and because there’s so little water, it’s very hard to control those fires, so there’s a massive devastation. Plus, the animals there are dying, because they are not able to adapt to this heat that we are experiencing. It’s not normal.
So, even though here, the peninsula of Yucatán, normally we experience a hot weather, what we are experiencing right now goes beyond of what is normal. So, we are — plus, it has lasted for more than one month, where we have had these conditions of 45 maximum degrees centigrade, and the minimums of 38, 35, so really not — that minimum is not healthy anymore, not for humans, not for environment. And it doesn’t seem to — that it’s going to end soon. So, yeah.
AMY GOODMAN: We’re going to end with Jeff Goodell. If you could comment on climate refugees, as President Biden tries to shut down the border, the U.S.-Mexico border, limit the number of people who can come, the reasons people leave their countries, and what they’re affected by, and also the laws that prevent people, like in Texas, the attempt to stop people from even getting — workers getting water breaks?
JEFF GOODELL: Yeah. Well, one of the, you know, kind of rules of life is that when conditions get too intolerable — too hot, in this case — living things move on to find more suitable climates. That’s what humans do. That’s what, you know, plants do. That’s what animals do. We all have to, in order to survive, find our kind of what I call in my book our Goldilocks zone, where it’s not too hot, not too cold.
And, you know, what happens when it gets too hot, crops fail, water resources fail, people move on. And that is what’s happening at the U.S. border. Migration is a very complex topic. There’s lots of reasons why people are on the move. But certainly, climate change and crop failure and water scarcity is a big part of that.
And so, we’re going to see a more chaotic planet as the climate heats up. In my book, I call heat the engine of planetary chaos. And that’s what we’re talking about here. So we’re going to see more people trying to move across boundaries. We’re going to see more politics driven by that kind of resistance to migration. We’re seeing it in the United States right now. We’re seeing it in Europe. We will see more and more of that.
And in states like Texas, where I live, we have a governor who’s a hard-right MAGA Republican, who has decided that — you know, he has passed legislation or signed legislation that prohibits any city or municipality in the state from passing any laws that require shade breaks or water breaks for workers during extreme heat conditions. The politics of this are perverse. They are brutal. They are barbaric. But that is the way our world is moving. You know, the idea that Governor Abbott has is a loss of productivity by giving people shade breaks, but it’s really going back to the old kind of coal mining days where, you know, productivity is elevated above human life.
AMY GOODMAN: Well, we’re going to continue to talk about this, of course, as we move into these incredibly hot summer months. And even those who have access to shade are determined by their wealth, particularly thinking of the unhoused population. Jeff Goodell, we want to thank you so much for being with us, New York Timespiece, we’ll link to, that you just wrote, “The Heat Wave Scenario That Keeps Climate Scientists Up at Night,” author of The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet. And we want to thank Dr. Ruth Cerezo-Mota, climate scientist from the Institute of Engineering at National Autonomous University of Mexico, today speaking to us from Yucatán.
'He’s truly lost his mind': Lindsey Graham ripped after calling D-Day a 'failure' on CBS
Lindsey Graham on CBS (CBS screenshot) A nuanced attempt by Sen. Linsey Graham (R-SC) to assert that the U.S. should never have been in the position to have to launch the Normandy invasion 80 years ago fell with a thud on Sunday morning after he told a CBS host that D-Day was a "failure."
Discussing battling Russian President Vladimir Putin for invading Ukraine, Graham tried to compare that war with fighting Nazi Germany.
With members of the Allies having spent the past few days honoring the D-Day fallen, Graham's inartful comments with Margaret Brennan of CBS set off a wave of condemnation on social media, with attorney Bradley Moss writing about the posted clip, "Tell me that’s fake. Please tell me that’s fake." — (@)
Stewcat2006 wrote, "Man, Graham is soooooo close to catching on how important it is to stop a facist wannabe dictator before he gains too much power…"
With another commenter suggesting, "He's truly lost his mind," SnarkyPanda added, "He's backing Hitler Jr while saying people should have stopped Hitler earlier."
"Politicians who make statements like this are beneath the dignity of this country. We will never be whole as long as traitors serve in the highest positions in government. Graham is disgraceful," Just A Guy accused.
"What a vile little man," Covfefe added with Colette Flanigan writing, "You know what WAS a failure? You and Trump trying a coup against America on 1/6. You failed."
Joey Bonanno summed it up with a direct link to Graham, writing, "Your abhorrent statement about D -Day should get you removed from office, unfortunately the stupid voters in S Carolina clutch bibles and parks and guns on voting day, they don’t give a dam about Democracy, you sir, you’re a disgrace to the flag."
