Crucial farm jobs dry up in drought-stricken Morocco

Sidi Slimane (Morocco) (AFP) – In a sun-baked village north of Morocco's capital Rabat, Mustapha Loubaoui and other itinerant workers wait idly by the roadside for farm work made scarce by a six-year drought.

Issued on: 13/07/2024

A man inspects his damaged crops, in the Moroccan town of Sidi Slimane, after six years of drought

Loubaoui, 40, rode his combine harvester for 280 kilometres (175 miles) hoping to pick up work in what previously had been the booming agricultural village of Dar Bel Amri.

His day-long journey was for nothing. Now Loubaoui fears he will end up like the roughly 159,000 Moroccan agricultural workers who, official figures say, have lost their jobs since early last year.

"Work has become hard to come by because of drought," Loubaoui told AFP.

Large areas of the Mediterranean have been under "alert drought conditions", a phenomenon even more pronounced in Morocco and its neighbours Algeria and Tunisia, according to the European Drought Observatory's latest analysis.

In Morocco, a lack of water threatens the viability of the important agriculture sector, which employs around a third of the working-age population and accounts for 14 percent of exports.

More than one third of Morocco's total cultivated area lies unused because of drought.

A Moroccan woman fills containers with scarce water in Sidi Slimane 

The area is now about 2.5 million hectares compared to four million prior to the onset of severe water scarcity, according to figures given by Agriculture Minister Mohammed Sadiki.

And as the arable land shrank, so did employment.

The North African kingdom's unemployment rates rose to a record 13.7 percent in the first quarter of 2024, said the High Planning Commission (HCP), the government's statistical body.

It said 1.6 million of Morocco's 37 million people are out of work and stressed that "the labour market continues to endure the effects of drought".
'At the mercy of climate change'

Among the people behind the statistics is Chlih El Baghdadi, a farmer who lives near Dar Bel Amri.

A farmer smokes during a break outside his house in the parched lands around Sidi Slimane 

His grain harvest suffered a major loss from drought, leaving him sitting at home rather than working his fields.

He and his five children now depend financially on his wife, who is employed at a larger farm near the city of Meknes, about 70 kilometres from their village.

Such operations, whose yield is mainly for export, have survived the drought because of their water-hungry irrigation systems employed under the "Green Morocco Plan" (PMV) launched in 2008.

Since then, agricultural revenues doubled from 63 billion dirhams to 125 billion dirhams ($12.5 billion) in 10 years, according to official data.

Another programme, "Generation Green 2020-2030", aims to enhance Morocco's sustainable agriculture in light of climate challenges.

It targets a doubling of agricultural exports to reach 60 billion dirhams by 2030.

Yet despite the initiatives, climate change-driven unemployment has not eased.

"We have modern and sophisticated agriculture, but it only spans around 15 percent of cultivatable areas," said Abderrahim Handouf, a researcher and agricultural engineer.

The "majority of farmers remain at the mercy of climate change" and other economic sectors are "not able to accommodate them," he added.

-'Employment is the weak spot'-

The kingdom has striven to develop its industrial and service sectors over the past two decades, hoping to create more jobs, but these have not compensated for climate-linked unemployment.

Cars, for example, topped Morocco's exports last year with a record value of more than 141 billion dirhams.

Large areas of the Mediterranean have been under 'alert drought conditions', says the European Drought Observatory 

But the industry "only creates up to 90,000 jobs per year" while there are 300,000 job seekers, Moroccan industry minister Ryad Mezzour said in May.

"Employment is the weak spot of the economic system," he said in a radio interview.

Facing criticism, Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch told parliament last month that "drought has become reality".

He announced the expected creation of 140,000 new jobs as part of investment deals worth 241 billion dirhams in fields including renewable energy, telecommunication, tourism and health.

But the numbers were far from the million jobs he had promised to create by 2026.

For farmers like Benaissa Kaaouan, 66, it's too late. He said he would have walked away from agriculture if he had learned another skill.

Now he stands in the middle of his zucchini fields in Dar Bel Amri, most of them sun-spoiled.

"There's no life without rain," Kaaouan said ruefully.

FOTOS © FADEL SENNA / AFP

© 2024 AFP

French left propose Huguette Bello as compromise PM pick, but Socialists are on the fence

As France's left-wing alliance scrambles to agree on a candidate for prime minister after taking the most parliamentary seats in the July 7 snap election, the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party has proposed veteran politician Huguette Bello as a compromise candidate. The former Communist Party member from the French overseas region of Reunion is a respected politician whose candidacy is supported by most parties in the New Popular Front coalition, but the Socialists appear to be reluctant to endorse her, explains Damien Lecomte from the Paris Pantheon Sorbonne University.

Issued on: 13/07/2024 - 

Huguette Bello  in Saint-Paul on the French overseas island of La Reunion.

 © Richard Bouhet, AFP

By: FRANCE 24

Video by: FRANCE 24

After nearly a week of frantic negotiations, Huguette Bello emerged as a contender for the French prime minister’s post when Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the hard left France Unbowed (LFI) party hailed the latest “solution” to the political impasse that has gripped France since the July 7 legislative elections produced a hung parliament.

Speaking to supporters on Friday, Mélenchon said Bello, a committed “anti-racist feminist” was a "solution" to the political impasse.

The 577-seat National Assembly is roughly split into thirds between the New Popular Front (NFP) left alliance with 182 seats, President Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble centrists at 168 and the far-right National Rally (RN) with 143.

French Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel told a local TV station the 73 year-old politician from France’s Reunion Island has “the right stuff” to fulfill the PM role.

But Damien Lecomte, a researcher from Paris Pantheon Sorbonne University, notes that the Socialist Party within the New Popular Front alliance is defending their party leader Olivier Faure as the best candidate to head the new French government.

French people divided as parties struggle to form govt coalition in parliament

Issued on: 13/07/2024 - 

People in the central Auvergne region are divided as they watch France's political parties struggle to form a ruling majority in Parliament. The 577-seat National Assembly is roughly split into thirds between the New Popular Front (NFP) left alliance with at least 190 seats, President Emmanuel Macron's centrists at 164 and the far-right National Rally (RN), with 143

01:33
Video by: FRANCE 24

Polish MPs reject bill seeking to ease strict abortion law

Poland's lower house rejected a bill on Friday that sought to decriminalise the act of helping someone get an abortion. The vote – in which 218 MPs voted against the bill and 215 were in favour – highlighted the divisions in the ruling coalition over easing one of Europe's most restrictive abortion laws.


Issued on: 12/07/2024 - 

Anti-abortion demonstrators march in support of every conceived life and against steps taken by the new government to liberalize Poland's strict law and allow termination of pregnancy until the 12th week, in Warsaw, Poland, on April 14, 2024.

 © Czarek Sokolowski, AP

Polish MPs on Friday rejected a bill that would have decriminalised the act of facilitating abortions in a blow for reproductive rights and the country's new liberal government.

The draft law, seen as a precursor to easing traditionally Catholic Poland's almost total ban on abortions, was rejected by 218 MPs against and 215 in favour.

The bill would have helped, for example, campaigners who provide women wanting to terminate their pregnancies with pills obtained in other countries for medical abortions.

The bill was the first and most conservative of four draft texts to liberalize abortion access in Poland put forward by members of the ruling pro-EU coalition.

Poland currently has some of the most restrictive abortion laws in Europe, and remains deeply divided on the issue.

The alliance of pro-EU parties came to power in October promising to legalize abortion, which is currently only permitted if the pregnancy is the result of sexual assault or incest, or if it poses a direct threat to the life or health of the mother.

The text submitted to the vote on Friday was rejected by representatives from the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party and the far-right Konfederacja, which are two major opposition groups.

Read more PM Donald Tusk faces uphill battle on reforming Polish abortion rights

Some deputies of the PSL (Christian Democrats), members of the ruling coalition, also voted against it.

The three other bills, still being debated in parliamentary committees, directly propose easing access to abortion, each to a different extent.

This week, President Andrzej Duda, a close ally of the PiS, warned that he would veto all the bills even if they are passed.

(AFP)

US consumer sentiment falls to lowest in 8 months

Half of consumers still object to high prices, even as they expect inflation to continue moderating in years ahead, says survey director

Ovunc Kutlu |12.07.2024 - TRT/AA

ISTANBUL

US consumer sentiment declined in July to its lowest level in eight months, according to preliminary results from the University of Michigan's consumer survey released Friday.

The index of consumer sentiment decreased 2.2 points to 66.0 in July from 68.2 in June.

The market expectation for the index was to come in at 68.5.

"Nearly half of consumers still object to the impact of high prices, even as they expect inflation to continue moderating in the years ahead," Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in a statement."

"With the upcoming election, consumers perceived substantial uncertainty in the trajectory of the economy, though there is little evidence that the first presidential debate altered their economic views," she added.

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 2.9% in July from 3.3% in June, falling for the second consecutive month.

Long-run inflation expectations, meanwhile, came in at 2.9%, down from 3% last month.

Euro 2024: battles on and off the pitch reflect a continent struggling with its own identity

Ronaldo reacts to his missed penalty against Slovenia.

 Ronald Wittek/EPA-EFE

THE CONVERSATION 
Published: July 12, 2024 


After more than four weeks and 51 football matches, Euro 2024 draws to a close with its total audience again likely to have exceeded 5 billion live viewers. Europe’s premier international football tournament has certainly retained its global appeal, but its overall report card presents a rather more mixed picture for the continent – of fading glories and harsh realities.

The most recognisable symbol of waning strength has been Portuguese superstar Cristiano Ronaldo. For years, he has been considered one of the sport’s greatest talents, but at 39 his presence on the pitch is visibly less potent.

Ronaldo’s tears of frustration after missing a penalty against Slovenia were a reminder of what once was but can no longer be – rather like Europe itself, which is struggling to retain its power, influence and relevance.

But while Ronaldo cried (Portugal were ultimately knocked out by France in the quarter-finals), Italy wept. For, if another reflection of European nations losing their way was needed, the chaotic Azzurri provided it. Once the kings of elegance and style, Italy (knocked out by unfancied Switzerland at the last-16 stage) looked bereft of ideas, playing a brand of football that was stilted and lacked dynamism – akin to Europe’s approach to the current stormy economic waters.


And then there was France (beaten by Spain in the semi-final). Just days before the tournament began, French president Emmanuel Macron called a snap parliamentary election after European polls went the way of the far right.

The country’s captain, Kylian Mbappé (of Cameroonian and Algerian descent), then implored young French voters to resist the rise of far-right extremism. It was a sentiment echoed by Ibrahima Konaté, Aurélien Tchouaméni and many other players in the ethnically diverse French squad.

Yet after the first round of voting, in which the National Rally party came out ahead, its president Jordan Bardella announced that he would strip away the automatic right to citizenship of children born in France to non-French parents. In other words, people like Mbappé, Konaté and Tchouaméni.

Meanwhile, England’s largely dour, directionless football matched Britain’s post-Brexit woes. Ramped-up on an anglicised vision of hope, Gareth Southgate’s side’s painful progress through the group stages ran in parallel to Rishi Sunak’s stumbling general election campaign. Both were difficult to watch – but at least England made it to the final.

Elsewhere, the Hungarian national team (eliminated at the group stage) turned up in Germany fuelled by more than €3 billion (£2.5 billion) of government investment. Prime minister Viktor Orbán, another right-wing populist, is not just a football fan but someone who isn’t afraid to deploy the game for political purposes.

The host country Germany (beaten by Spain in an exciting quarter-final) fared better on the pitch than many had expected. But while traditional stereotypes emphasise the nation’s efficiency, the Euros have exposed that its railways are in a state of disarray, confronted by funding issues and management difficulties. Thousands of fans were left stranded on station platforms after matches in Germany’s old industrial heartland, exemplifying the infrastructural challenges that many European countries now face.

All of this was set against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Its national team finished last in its group, but perhaps more surprising was how little the conflict was mentioned. After Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, football fans and players loudly expressed their support for Ukraine. But during this tournament, signs of such solidarity were scarce.

Cohesion in the streets

On the plus side, the absence of widespread hooliganism during the event was encouraging. Some fans, like those from the Netherlands (beaten semi-finalists), stood out for the party atmosphere they brought, while the soft power of bagpipe bands and the tartan army from Scotland (group stage) charmed many.

But political divisions were never far away. While some fans sang anti-Vladimir Putin songs, Serbian supporters arrived in Germany under suspicion that some were planning violence in support of the Russian president.

Supporters of Serbia (eliminated at the group stage) were goaded inside the stadiums by rival fans from Croatia and Albania (both also group-stage departures). And a player from Turkey (quarter-finalists) celebrated scoring a goal using an ultra-nationalist hand gesture.

Corporate concerns

Evidence of a troubled Europe, uncomfortable with itself and unsure of its identity, was seen on the corporate side of the tournament too. Most of Euro 2024’s sponsors were not European, with the biggest group coming from China (Hisense, Vivo, BYD, Ali Express and Ali Pay).

Yet even as the Euros kicked-off, the EU announced plans to impose trade sanctions on the Chinese electric vehicle company BYD – an unfortunate juxtaposition given the car giant’s sponsorship deal with tournament organisers Uefa.

There was also a marked contrast to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, where Germany’s national team protested against the Gulf nation over human rights issues. For this tournament, Qatar Airways landed on the country’s doorstep as a major sponsor. But there were no protests – just the sense that European companies and brands have neither the money nor the appetite to take on their Asian rivals.

Despite the difficulties, global interest in the tournament shows there is still much to be celebrated in Europe. Euro 2024 had some great football, enthusiastic fans, and sporting moments to savour. But it could not distract from the deeper malaise we are witnessing across the continent.

Authors   

Simon Chadwick
Professor of Sport and Geopolitical Economy, SKEMA Business School

Paul Widdop
Associate Professor of Sport Business, Manchester Metropolitan University

Disclosure statement

Simon Chadwick teaches on UEFA education programmes.

Paul Widdop does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

UK Election 2024 polls were wide of the mark on Labour’s margin of victory – this is what may have happened

Even the exit poll struggled to pin down Reform’s seat count. 

Alamy/Ron Fassbender

THE CONVERSATION
Published: July 12, 2024 

The 2024 UK election campaign was dominated by discussion of the polls, from start to finish. This was partially because of the sheer volume of polls being published. We had more MRP (multi-level regression post-stratification) polls than ever before, many giving quite different pictures of the size of Labour’s lead.

The chart below shows the average performance of 27 polls which predicted vote shares in the contest just prior to the election on July 4. The polling predictions are on the left and the actual vote shares are on the right for each of the five UK-wide political parties.

As a standard industry approximation, if the results differ from the outcomes by more than 3%, there is a statistically significant difference between the polling and the outcome. In other words, the pollsters got it wrong.

Final poll predictions and actual vote shares:

How the pollsters did. P Whiteley, CC BY-ND

Using that rough yardstick, the pollsters over-predicted the Labour and arguably under-predicted the Tory vote, although in the latter case it was on the boundary of statistical significance. The other parties were within the margin of error. To be fair, different polling companies varied in their accuracy, so we need to look a little more closely at the results.

The list below shows how accurate 27 polling agencies were in forecasting the vote shares in the election. Accuracy can be measured in different ways, but the method used here is easier to understand than most others. A low score means the poll was more accurate.

Pollster accuracy. Mark Pack

To explain how this was calculated, we can look at the example of More in Common’s regular poll, which was one of the most accurate. We simply calculate the distance between the poll and the vote shares for each party and then add them all up. For example, More in Common predicted that Labour would get 39%, the Conservatives 24%, Reform 15%, the Liberal Democrats 12% and the Greens 5%.

The final vote share on July 4 was 34% for Labour, 24% for the Conservatives, 14% for Reform, 12% for the Liberal Democrats and 7% for the Greens. If we calculate the difference between the forecast and the outcomes, More in Common was 5% out for Labour, 1% out for Reform, spot on for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats and 2% for the Greens which produces an accuracy score of eight.

Accuracy scores vary quite a lot between pollsters. The list contains five MRP polls. These big data polls are best known for predicting the results in specific constituencies using large samples. The YouGov MRP had a sample of nearly 60,000 respondents.

It is noticeable that despite the very large samples associated with MRP polls, they were not the most accurate in the list, although they did better than the average accuracy score of just under 13. At the same time this difference was not consistent. The YouGov MRP had a score of eight compared with a score of 11 for its regular poll. However, the reverse was true for the More in Common, which scored eight for its regular poll and ten for its MRP.

Why do polls get it wrong?

One of the most acute problems in polling is getting representative samples of the electorate. All survey firms are struggling with this problem since the gold standard, random probability surveys, where people across the country are randomly selected and called, have all but died out on account of being too expensive and time consuming to conduct.

Practically all polling companies now use quota samples. This involves interviewing a set proportion of different groups needed to make the sample representative of the electorate. They interview defined numbers of people from groups based on things like age, gender and ethnic background. This requires data from the census and other sources to identify the size of the quotas.

When the quotas are not filled this can create bias in the samples. This is not always a problem since weights can be used to compensate for non-response. For example, if we need a quota of 200 voters under the age of 25 for a representative sample but we only get 100, we can count the latter twice in the analysis. This is essentially what weighting does.

However, the hidden assumption here is that the young people interviewed are representative of those who aren’t interviewed. The US journalist Ken Goldstein has cited this as contributing to the failure of the polls to predict the 2016 US presidential election. He said: “Usually we assume the problem is that group X is too small, but the actual problem is that group X is too weird.”

Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

This gives rise to a serious problem highlighted by political scientist Michael Bailey in his recent book, Polling at a Crossroads. The technical term for this is “non-ignorable non-response”. If respondents and non-respondents differ and we cannot verify this from other sources, then the poll will be biased and give the wrong answers.

We can find out from the census if the quotas of young people or ethnic minorities are correct, but it will not tell us if respondents are more interested and less alienated from politics than non-respondents.

The implication is that the eve of election polls contained this type of non-response and so exaggerated Labour and Reform party support. It was very likely caused by non-respondents being more apathetic or more alienated from politics than respondents.

Author   

  

Paul Whiteley
Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
Disclosure statement
Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC.

China building more wind, solar capacity than entire world combined: report

Recent extreme weather events, exacerbated by the climate crisis, have highlighted the urgency of these efforts.


China has committed to bring carbon emissions to a peak by 2030 and to net zero by 2060. / Photo: Reuters Archive

China is building almost twice as much wind and solar energy capacity as every other country combined, research published showed.

The world's second-largest economy is the biggest emitter of the greenhouse gases that drive the climate crisis.

China has committed to bring carbon emissions to a peak by 2030 and to net zero by 2060.

It has endured several waves of extreme weather in recent months that scientists say are rendered more severe by the climate crisis.

China currently has a total of 339 gigawatts (GW) of capacity under construction, including 159 GW of wind and 180 GW of solar.

That is "nearly twice as much as the rest of the world combined", according to the study by Global Energy Monitor, a United States-based NGO.

The figure far exceeds the second-ranked nation, the United States, which is building a total of just 40 GW, the report said.

Renewable generation

It said China has broken ground on a third of the new wind and solar capacity it has announced to date, compared to a global average of just 7 percent.

"The stark contrast in construction rates illustrates the active nature of China's commitment to building renewables projects," the study said.

Absorbing the boom in renewables remains a challenge for China's coal-centred grid and faster development of transmission lines is needed, GEM research analyst Aiqun Yu said.

Still, the new capacity pushed renewable generation to record highs recently, according to a separate analysis published by Carbon Brief on Thursday.

JULY 11,2024

Turkish military advances 15 km into Iraqi Kurdistan, triggering mass evacuations

Ongoing operations have forced nearly 602 villages in Duhok province to evacuate, with villagers fleeing in fear of Turkish army shelling.

WHERE ARE THE PERSHMERGA, OR THE IRAQI ARMED FORCES TO FIGHT THIS ILLEGAL INVASION?

Dana Taib Menmy
Iraq
07 July, 2024
THE NEW ARAB

Ongoing operations have forced nearly 602 villages in Duhok province to evacuate, with villagers fleeing in fear of Turkish army shelling that has also scorched their farmland. [Photo by CPT Iraqi Kurdistan on the X platform]


The Turkish military has advanced 15 kilometers deep into Iraqi Kurdistan, targeting the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and forcing the evacuation of hundreds of villages, according to a conflict monitor's report on Sunday.

The incursion, which represents a significant escalation in Turkey’s military operations, has unfolded amid a conspicuous silence from both Iraqi and Kurdish authorities, raising concerns over Iraq's sovereignty and the safety of its citizens.

Ongoing operations have forced nearly 602 villages in Duhok province to evacuate, with villagers fleeing in fear of Turkish army shelling that has also scorched their farmland, according to a U.S.-based human rights organisation monitoring the conflict.

Maj. Gen. Tahseen Al-Khafaji, spokesperson for the Iraqi Joint Operations Command, told The New Arab that the Turkish operation is political and unrelated to the Iraqi Joint Operations Command. He directed further inquiries to Iraq's foreign ministry, which did not respond to requests for comment.

Efforts to contact Ahmed al-Sahaf, spokesperson for Iraq’s foreign ministry, were unsuccessful.

TNA also spoke with Sakfan Sindi, deputy head of the parliament's security and defense committee from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). Sindi said he lacked information on the issue as parliament is on its summer break. He gave assurances that after the holiday, the committee would seek to understand the stance of Iraq’s prime minister and the commander-in-chief of Iraq’s armed forces.

Last month, Turkey dispatched hundreds of troops and military vehicles into the Kurdistan Region, setting up checkpoints and conducting military patrols in Duhok province’s Barwari Bala area. The recent escalation has instilled fear among local villagers, leading to the abandonment of at least one village.

“The new operation in the Barwari Bala area signifies the depth of Turkish military ground operations into Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkish Armed Forces have advanced 15 kilometers into Iraqi Kurdistan territory,” said the Community Peacemaker Teams (CPT), a U.S.-based human rights organization monitoring the conflict.

“Since the start of the new Turkish military operation, Turkey has conducted 238 bombardments in Iraqi Kurdistan, primarily in the Duhok governorate. As a result of Turkish bombardments, more than 20,000 dunams of agricultural lands have burned,” CPT added.

This incursion marks a significant escalation compared to Turkey's 2021 operation, dubbed Claw-Lightning, when Turkish forces advanced 7 kilometers into the Kurdistan Region, CPT reported. The campaign aims to curb threats from the PKK along the border.

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Dana Taib Menmy

The PKK is designated a terrorist organisation by Ankara and much of the West, has waged an armed insurgency against Turkey for decades in a struggle for greater Kurdish rights.

Turkish operations have commenced near Kani Masi and Mount Metina in Duhok province. Turkish soldiers, armed with heavy weapons, have established several checkpoints, particularly near Balave and Belizani villages along the main road between Bamarni and Kani Masi subdistricts, about 57 kilometers northeast of Duhok city.

Clashes between Turkish forces and PKK fighters have ignited numerous wildfires, with each side blaming the other for the blazes. In Sargale village, about 55% of agricultural land has been burned by Turkish attacks. Turkish military actions in Iraqi Kurdistan threaten at least 602 villages with displacement, with 162 already evacuated, according to CPT.

Civilian infrastructure has also been affected, including the destruction of a school in Amedi district’s Mizhe village and an Assyrian church in the town of Mishka.

The Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have yet to issue statements regarding the increased hostilities in Duhok province.

Earlier this year, Baghdad classified the PKK as a banned organisation before Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Iraq in April. Both nations signed several agreements, including those related to security.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Baghdad on April 22, marking his first state visit to Iraq since 2011. During the visit, both countries signed a joint security agreement allowing Turkey to conduct military operations against the PKK deep within Iraqi territory. In return, Iraq will receive increased water flow from Turkey.

However, Ankara’s persistent military strikes and ground troop deployments have caused fear among the local villagers of Duhok province’s mountainous regions. Many residents fear displacement due to constant mortar shells and gunfire.

CPT data indicates that Turkey has conducted over 1,076 attacks on the Kurdistan Region and Nineveh province in 2024.

On Thursday, a Turkish defense ministry announcement confirmed that one of its soldiers was killed by the PKK in Duhok province.

 

The guerrilla is the hope of the people of South Kurdistan (Northern Iraq)

The greatest hope of the people of South Kurdistan, who are portrayed as if they were uncomfortable with the presence of the guerrilla there, is that the guerrilla emerges victorious from this war.


AMARGÎ ARHAT BA
BEHDINAN
Friday, 12 July 2024, 18:02


The KDP's biggest fear is that the growing anger of the people of Bashûr (southern Kurdistan, northern Iraq) will turn into an organised force, because it knows the people's rebellious tradition.

The Turkish state continues its occupation plan with all kinds of co-operation and support of the KDP. Neither the guerrilla nor the people have patience left for the KDP's sinister role in this war. The residents of Amediyê who witnessed the convoys of the Turkish army passing through the centre of the city; the villagers of Guherzê, whose vineyards and gardens are hit by howitzer and mortar shells every day; those who were forced out of the villages of Mijê and Spîndare; the residents of Sergelê, whose land is burning even today, are waiting for the day when they will get rid of the sinister KDP and the invading Turkish army. The greatest hope of the people, who are portrayed as if they were uncomfortable with the presence of the guerrilla there, is that the guerrilla will emerge victorious from this war.

The KDP's biggest fear today is that the growing anger of the people will turn into an organised force, because the KDP knows that the people of South Kurdistan are rebellious and come from a tradition of rebellion. We know how much the KDP fears the will of the people from the elections that it has postponed for years. The KDP, even afraid of organising the elections, which is the primary necessity of democracy, for years, will of course be on the side of the occupier, not on the side of the people in the days when these occupation attacks have become evident.

After the attacks of the Turkish army on 3 July, the KDP media resorted to lies in order to calm the reactions of the people and to make it seem as if everything is rosy in the region.

No country's media makes such an effort to normalise an occupation on its territory.

Today, while watching the news reported by the K24 channel in the city of Amediyê, we realise again that the KDP media knows no limits in lies and special warfare.

First of all, the K24 reporter talks about how many tourists the city of Amediyê attracts during the day, how majestic and beautiful the landscape is. I wonder if they see the occupying Turkish soldiers who roam in and around the city as tourists. What view are they talking about? Is it the view of the smoke and explosions from the chemical weapons fired against the guerrilla positions on the Amediyê Hill near the city? Or the view of the burning forests in Sergelê and other villages on the slopes of Amediyê? Which view? The view of the burnt bodies of Kurdish children hit by howitzers and mortars fired by the Turkish army?

The K24 reporter then shows a few street scenes to show how peaceful the city of Amediyê is. If he moved his camera a little to the side, he would have a good view of the lands set on fire by the Turkish invaders, and if he moved his camera a little higher, he would get the Amediyê Hill, which has been almost pulverised by the bombardments of the Turkish army, so the angle of the shots is very narrow, showing only a few people shopping in front of a shop. Then a few interviews with pre-prepared dialogue. The interviewee says that the city of Amediyê attracts thousands of tourists a day, that there is nothing extraordinary around and that they live in peace.

The KDP special warfare team is very adept at playing three monkeys.

However, can the people of Amediyê ignore the sounds of explosions even if they cover their ears? Can they not feel the heat radiating from their burning forests even if they never leave their homes? Even if they wear masks, how can they not smell the odour of chemical gases emanating from Amediyê Hill? How can they ignore the invaders who pass through the centre of their cities in convoys with their dirty boots?

Let's say that they do not see or hear, and they claim that they live in peace. Isn't this thanks to the guerrilla that has been resisting the occupation in that region for two years? Isn't it thanks to the heroes who faced all kinds of war crimes for two years on the Amediyê Hill, but still did not allow occupation so that the Turkish army would not turn towards the cities? Undoubtedly, if the guerrilla had not fought there for two years, no one could claim to live in peace in the city of Amediyê. If there is any peace, it is thanks to the guerrilla blood flowing on the hills above that city.

There is no peace in the Amediyê area, but the biggest occupation operation in the history of South Kurdistan. Turkish troops did not come there to watch the magnificent view of the city of Amediyê. They have brought nothing but blood, tears, death, rape and massacre wherever they have set foot in the Middle East, and they will not bring anything to Amediyê. For this reason, those who claim that the inhabitants of Amediyê live in peace today and try to justify the Turkish army's invasion operation will also be responsible for the suffering that will be experienced by those very people when this invasion operation cannot be stopped.

Leader Apo (Abdullah Öcalan), in his evaluation titled Southern Perspectives, said, "The KDP is a collaborative power and depends on the dominant will. When the dominant will wants, it is drawn into this conflict by various methods. It was indeed drawn in. In other words, it is a dependent power, it cannot do otherwise. On this basis, the Turkish regime both supported and protected the loyalty to a federal Kurdish state. Its aim in this was to isolate the PKK from the South and gradually turn the Kurdish collaborator forces in the South against the PKK." The collaborationist and treacherous character of the KDP was thus analysed decades ago.

Leader Apo's predictions and analyses on the political, military and social structure of the region offer a perspective for the guerrilla struggle even after decades. For this reason, it is the Kurdistan Freedom Guerrilla that best interprets the occupying character of the Turkish nation state, best analyses what the Turkish state has done and will do there, and with this foresight and consciousness, is the honour defender of the people of South Kurdistan.

The KDP's media can only deceive the Barzani Family's stooges by saying "There is peace in Amediyê, tourism is developing in Amediyê", but never the patriotic Kurdish people of South Kurdistan who come from the tradition of rebellion. Especially they can never mislead the Kurdistan Freedom Guerrilla.

Kalkan: We must turn every place into antifascist struggle and resistance areas

Duran Kalkan said that "the Kurdish question lies at the heart of everything."


ANF
BEHDINAN
Saturday, 13 July 2024

PKK Executive Committee Member Duran Kalkan spoke about the international campaign demanding freedom for Abdullah Öcalan, and the invasion attacks carried out by Turkey against South Kurdistan.

The agenda is busy, there are a lot of developments. Let’s start with the isolation and the struggle against isolation that gives this agenda its main character.

First of all, I greet Rêber Apo with respect. I greet everyone who is fighting for the physical freedom of Rêber Apo [Abdullah Öcalan] on the basis of our global freedom campaign. I wish them success.

The Kurdish question lies at the heart of everything. To understand the Kurdish issue, one must consider the seriousness of the torture, isolation, and genocide taking place on Imrali Island. Rêber Apo is being held under such harsh conditions; the circles that fuel the Kurdish conflict are terrified that even a word from Rêber Apo would be leaked. In this sense, isolation, torture, and genocide persist. Of course, the campaign against this continues. We have already determined that everything will be achieved through an uninterrupted struggle. This struggle is evolving, acquiring dimension. In this sense, there is a significant legal and popular movement against isolation. The guerrillas are also representing a historical struggle.

As a movement, as a people, and as all of our revolutionary, democratic, and left-wing socialist allies, we are fighting for Rêber Apo’s liberation physically and a resolution to the Kurdish issue. The legal aspect of this conflict is also growing.

As previously indicated, the Imrali system has no legal basis. It has flaws in all areas, but the legal element is the most lacking. This is becoming increasingly clear. In terms of the legal struggle against the Imrali system, certain information has been disclosed through the pressure of many circles, but particularly the legal community. The Paris Bar Association has taken initiative, the United Nations Human Rights Committee has issued a call for the freedom of Rêber Apo. But lawyers also provided the world with vital information concerning the CPT after we wanted to understand the situation better. The lawyers revealed that Azerbaijan has intervened. The information about Rêber Apo, which the CPT so adamantly claimed it cannot reveal due to legal issues, was discussed by the CPT with Azerbaijan. In this regard, the approach of the CPT, and hence the Council of Europe, is critical. Rather than pursuing a legal approach, they are pursuing a political approach.

Moreover, the lawyers explained, that since 2012, the decisions of the ECHR have not been implemented. So, the ECHR will become entangled in torture before it enforces its own rulings. The institutions responsible for the ECHR are not enforcing. In other words, the source of such reckless behavior by the fascist and genocidal AKP-MHP come from deliberate omission. The so-called international democratic and European human rights institutions, are not fulfilling their duties and responsibilities. They are acting neither legally nor democratically. They are not acting humanitarian. They are engaging in self-interested political behavior. Therefore, they are complicit in this crime.

The widespread opposition to this is becoming increasingly important. The struggle is growing in every field, and it is spreading worldwide. Undoubtedly, this struggle needs to be expanded, extended, and broadened. The popular campaign for Rêber Apo’s physical liberation must never be compromised. It cannot be eliminated. On the contrary, it must be continually enhanced and widened.

Of course, there are numerous problems being faced by people. Women, youth, workers, and laborers across the world all face issues. There are economic, political, democratic, and human rights issues. These are being confronted over. However, these problems are intertwined. A struggle against AKP-MHP fascism is necessary, particularly in Turkey. It is vital to establish antifascist efforts based on a variety of issues, but these fights must be centered around the struggle for Rêber Apo’s physical freedom. As a result, these issues cannot be segregated from one another. The root to all freedom problems is the freedom problem of Rêber Apo. Because everyone’s freedom and democratic governance depends on the struggle for the physical freedom of Rêber Apo. The freedom and democracy of the Kurdish and Turkish people, women, youth, and humanity depend on the demolition of the torture, isolation, and genocide system in Imrali, and consequentially Rêber Apo’s physical release.

Rêber Apo once said: “If I hadn’t been able to completely integrate my life with the existence and independence of the Kurdish people, I wouldn’t have been able to precisely grasp and address the difficulties, nor would I have been able to work as successfully.” Now, as Kurds, women, youth, and all peoples, we must fully merge our lives with the principles of freedom and democracy in the global campaign for Rêber Apo’s physical freedom. This is the way to success. This is undoubtedly the path to freedom and democracy. In this regard, all fights for freedom and democracy must include Rêber Apo’s physical liberation as a primary goal. We should all pay heed to this. We should not divide our forces or opportunities.

Everyone is struggling. There is a fight among youth. Young people are taking meaningful action, particularly abroad and recently in Paris. Of course, they should. The struggle for Rêber Apo’s physical freedom should be the primary priority of Kurdish youth, as well as youth throughout the region and around the world who are influenced by the paradigm of Rêber Apo.

The youth must be in a constant state of struggle because there is no other choice. Existence, freedom struggle, and prosperity cannot be achieved in any other way. In this regard, Kurdish youth, in particular, should be at the forefront of this resistance, and they are. They should also resolve the problems being faced in all parts of Kurdistan and around the world, but at the heart of these struggles is the struggle for Rêber Apo’s physical liberation. Because the existence of the Imrali system of torture, isolation, and genocide fosters the growth of this fascist, imperialist, genocidal mentality and politics that underlies all issues. The problem which underlies all problems is the torture and isolation being faced by Rêber Apo, it is the Kurdish problem. The problem is that genocide is being inflicted upon the Kurds, the problem is the lack of compliance on resolving the Kurdish question. For this reason, the physical freedom of Rêber Apo and the solution of the Kurdish question are like flesh and blood. Because the Kurdish youth are at the forefront of such a struggle, they must develop and broaden their actions in all areas within the framework of our global freedom campaign. They must also lead the struggles of all oppressed societies, and workers.

The war has intensified in the Medya Defense Zones, all eyes are on the regions of Zap and Metina. In Northern Kurdistan, we have also seen guerrilla activity increase in June. How can this be evaluated?

Yes, first and foremost, I commemorate with love and gratitude all of our fallen comrades, particularly the comrades Shexmus, Beritan, and Brusk, who were martyred in the resistance in the North. Indeed, it is crucial to comprehend them correctly and protect their memories.

This is not an ordinary struggle. Developing such a resistance in the North, under today’s conditions, has a different meaning. In this context, actions have taken place from Avashin to Gever in Zagros. There were clashes in Botan. Clashes broke out in Gabar and Mawa. Clashes broke out in Merdin’s Kerboran area. There is conflict in the Serhat region. With spring and summer approaching, the fascist AKP-MHP began operations in all areas. In other words, the entirety of the North is a battle zone. On the other hand, there is resistance in the cities. HBDH militias fight almost daily. Also the YPS militants are fighting.

In the North, an antifascist, united battle is brewing, and our united revolutionary struggle is taking shape in the North through guerrilla and militia actions. This is a novel and significant scenario, which is substantial when compared to the previous 1-2 years. It is crucial to comprehend this right. Of course, it needs to be developed and spread more. In this regard, I commend everyone who is resisting and striving. I applaud their efforts and resistance. We need to strengthen it more.

To successfully conduct the war against AKP fascism and accomplish results, it is critical that we engage in the language that they understand.

In this respect, we must turn all areas of the North and Turkey – from mountains, plains, and cities – into zones of antifascist battle and resistance.

We must understand how to confront fascist terror with revolutionary violence. If this does not occur, that is, if they are not held accountable for their conduct, if every attack is not retaliated against, it will be impossible to break fascism, halt fascist aggression, and unite the people. In this regard, particularly the revolutionary democratic forces, the left socialist forces, must radicalize and strengthen their struggle. This is what the current guerrilla and militia activities entail and progress to. HBDH has actually reached a significant level. In reality, it must be far more advanced and powerful, but this is a separate issue. The progress which has been made by the HBDH is quite significant. We must strengthen this further.

New attacks are to be developed against the Zap and Metina regions. What is the information about this invasion supported by the KDP and Iraq? What is the latest situation in the area?

On July 3rd, they were some developments. Our co-presidency has already shared the details and our standpoint on the war in Zap, Metina, and across the Medya Defense Zones. Every day, the relevant HPG structures release information to the public. As a result, the general public is becoming more aware of the current situation. Aside from that, this is what’s new: the Turkish Republic’s armored troops, tanks, and vehicles have easily transported across Iraqi and KDP-controlled routes and have established themselves in several locations. They have established new positions. On this premise, they want to carry out occupation attacks. The Iraqi government is complicit in this seeing that it has made no objections. The KDP already supports and actively helps in practice, evacuating its own positions for the Turkish army.

In other words, the Turkish army and Turkish troops have established positions in many places. This was decided upon in Baghdad with the visit of Masoud Barzani. After gaining Baghdad’s approval, these Turkish troops were transported on the night of July 3.

These invasion attacks are not new. On August 26, 2016, the Turkish army launched invasion attacks against Syria from Jarabulus and against Iraq from Cukurca, crossing the border. Almost 9 years have passed. Despite a 9-year war, this situation is re-emerging. During the day of the attack in 2016, Masoud Barzani was in Ankara with the same mentality that he was in Baghdad on July 3. They decided together, they gave orders together. Masoud Barzani’s name is signed under the invasion and annexation attacks against Kurdistan, more than anyone else. He works more than anyone else to achieve this. In other words, his signature is under all the dirty work.

So, these current attacks are nothing new, the attack on the basis of occupation gained a different level in 2020, 2021, 2022. Most recently, on April 16, 2024, AKP-MHP fascism launched a new attack on the Metina region. Our headquarters explained this: it is a piecemeal occupation attempt which means holding empty positions and extending to new places step by step like this. Like this, they try to enter many areas of Metina.

Since July 3, tanks and armored troops have been moving by land, over the asphalt roads of Bamerne, Enishke, Qadishe, Amediye, Dereluk and Sheladize. They have arrived and are trying to hold the Sergele and Dereluk line which accounts to the valley of Zap. They want to encircle the entire Metina and West Zap area from the south, via armored troops. On the other hand, they are carrying out air strikes. They are trying to deploy soldiers from air to establish positions on especially Bahar Hill in Zap and other hills in Metina.

Previously, a military attack entailed striking and deploying from the air while advancing on the ground by clearing a passage through the terrain. The Turkish army attempted this for years, even entering some areas, but was unsuccessful. This failed to yield results. For example, it has been trying to occupy a hill for three years now. Although it attacked so much, it suffered many blows from the guerrilla and faltered. The Turkish army has realized that this method is fruitless. Now, as a result of the diplomacy and negotiations being conducted with the KDP and Iraqi state since winter, the Turkish state wants to achieve results by entering these areas with armored troops to be able to occupy them.

In other words, they want to occupy the places they cannot occupy, enter the places they cannot enter, and break the guerrilla resistance. For this, they have even established check points. Everything there, including the administration, is gradually falling into the hands of the Turkish Republic. The Turkish army is scattered across the border. The north of this entire area is de facto under the administration of the Turkish state. Annexation is being developed de facto in these areas where neither the KDP nor the Iraqi government have much power left. This has been labeled by some as “annexation,” which is correct. Under the name of a buffer zone, the Turkish, Iraqi, and KDP administrations were to conduct joint patrols in the area 20 kilometers inwards of the Iraq-Turkey borders. In some places, this ‘buffer zone’ has been trespassed by a further 20 kilometers. In other words, they have sold off land to the Turkish state under the legal guise of a buffer zone. The Iraqi government had disclosed that the agreements it has reached with the Turkish state were purely economical, which is true in some aspects. They were conducting the sale of land rather than that of goods. The KDP is already a servant. There is no other way to put how it is acting.

Thus, a large region of Southern Kurdistan has been sold off to the Turkish Republic. Everyone needs to know this. The world public opinion, the people of the South, and of Iraq must see this. As of July 3, this has been officially approved. This is what the Iraqi and KDP administrations decided on July 3. On this basis, they are evacuating villages and bombarding them non-stop. They are evacuating villages in Metina, Berwari, all of them. Thus, the areas of Xakurke, Avashin, Zap, Metina, and Heftanin are completely under the military and administrative control of the Turkish Republic which wants to displace society from there. The Turkish state has been burning and destroying villages to achieve this, already having destroyed hundreds of villages. Now it is trying to drive people away by bombarding them every day, using forbidden weapons and terrorizing them. This is the current situation. The question is whether the Turkish state can hold this up.

This is what the Turkish state wants, it is what Iraq and the KDP have accepted. But they have overlooked the great resistance of the guerrilla against this. There are clashes and actions every day. There are 10-15 actions a day. The Turkish state is trying to get hold of new positions, namely Bahar Hill. The press also disclosed that the Turkish army have deployed a small force in another place. Helicopters are being shot down, they can’t land. So, there is resistance. What will be the attitude of the public? The outcome will be determined by the resistance of the guerrilla, the attitude of the people of the South and Iraq.

In terms of the buffer zone, Erdogan initially demanded 40 kilometers, he wanted to extend it to that level. This was part of the negotiations during the winter. Devlet Bahceli, on the other hand, says he will take all of Mosul and Kirkuk, he officially disclosed this. Both the people of the South and the people of Iraq need to know and see this. But it seems that, so far, that the Turkish state has not been able to find the strength or the means to carry out such an attack. They do not believe they will succeed. Erdogan had declared that by the summer of 2024, they would eliminate the PKK in Iraq. Here we are in the middle of the summer, and he is still struggling to land on a few hills and occupy them. In fact, they had vowed to attack many parts of the Media Defense Areas. He couldn’t do it; he couldn’t find the strength. We need to understand, firstly, that the Turkish Republic could not achieve that which it had planned for 2024. The current attacks are a speck of that which they had plan.

Secondly, what started on July 3rd is indeed annexation, a de facto annexation is developing. In other words, the administration and governance in a large area is being passed into the hands of the Turkish Republic under the name of a buffer zone. Thirdly, it is unclear what the outcome will be in this area. It has been unsuccessful with this ambitious method of occupying the land through the ground and deploying from the air.

Now, how much power could these armored troops possibly bring to this failing scenario? Of course, that remains to be seen. So, we need to see the strength and success of the resistance of the guerrilla. The revolutionary operations last winter really dealt the enemy a crushing blow. This can be clearly seen. On this basis, I would like to add the following:

First of all, I greet with all due respect and love the guerrillas who are heroically resisting on Bahar Hill, all the hills of Delil, western Zap and all of Metina. We will resist, everyone should know this. The guerrilla will resist. The guerrilla and the patriotic Kurdish people will resist to the end against the occupation of Kurdistan and genocidal attacks against Kurdish freedom. How the collaborators and traitors do, is up to them. Of course there will be a struggle against them too. But the patriotic people and the Kurdistan freedom guerrilla will resist regardless.

On the ground, the war continues as such. The Turkish army has armored troops, special forces, elite forces. In some areas, they are deploying ISIS mercenaries that they bring down to attack the people. In reality, the AKP-MHP has mobilized various ISIS ad KDP groups and mercenaries in these areas after having used these forces in Syria and other places. Now, in the South, these same gangs are present, they carry out attacks. They are the ones waging the war. The unsatisfied Turkish state also wants to bring in village guards to the conflict.

What can we say? Our Central Headquarters Command has warned these village guards, we agree. They should stop acting crazy, otherwise they will pay the price dearly. No one should be a tool of such a sinister, evil, dastardly scheme. Now that the guards have been warned, when they face the consequences of their choices, we cannot be criticized.

This is definitely an important situation. On the other hand, our administration released statements regarding Iraq and the KDP. The Iraqi administration has lost the qualifications of being an administration or a state by selling lands that were supposedly under its governance to others. They did badly. Especially the Iraqi administration did badly. Only recently was it praising our fight as a movement against ISIS. We also had relations. But now, in exchange for some benefits, for some interests, for simple material interests, it jeopardized its relations with friends.

For the people of Iraq and South Kurdistan, it must be seen that the situation is really very serious. Their own lands are being destroyed before their eyes and the people are being evacuated. Should the Turkish state succeed, they will not stop at this. They have always said that they “will take” Kirkuk and Mosul. The fascist AKP-MHP has set eyes on the entire South, stretching as far as Sulaymaniyah. So, the people should be reacting more, they must struggle more. Organizations, parties, political intellectuals, artist circles, youth, women; in other words, the entire people of the South should react more strongly, influencing the Iraqi peoples.

People in all regions of Kurdistan and around the world should vigorously oppose this latest occupation attack, which has progressed to the point of annexation, particularly against the perpetrators and those who participated in and authorized it. People should react, and this is our expectation.