COP29

From conflict to cooperation

Aisha Khan 

Published October 23, 2024 

DAWN

AS we approach the 29th Conference of Parties to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, the most important discussions will pivot around enhancing the Nationally Determined Contributions and the New Collective Quantified Goal. Both will require high-level political commitment with adequate financial cash flows and investments in policy and action to keep the people and planet safe. COP29, labelled as the COP of action and ambition, will be judged by how it uses the COP presidency to align enhanced NDCs with the vison of the Global Stocktake (GST) at COP28. The business-as-usual approach is not likely to achieve desired outcomes. The GST on energy at COP28 made clear the need for transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewable energy requiring member states to:

• transition away from fossil fuel in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, in keeping with the science, and with developed countries taking the lead;

• increase global energy capacity threefold by 2030 and enhance the worldwide annual average rate of energy efficiency improvements twofold;

• eliminate inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that fail to tackle energy poverty or facilitate equitable transitions as swiftly as possible.

COP29 will mark the beginning of this journey spread over the next nine to 12 months when countries will be asked to submit enhanced NDCs aligned with the 1.5 degrees Celsius, including actionable energy transition targets and strategies, underpinned by robust implementation and investment frameworks.

Taking into account that 90 per cent of global emissions are derived from fossil fuels, the task will not be easy. It will be necessary to pair renewable and efficiency scale-up with fossil fuel phase-out, as despite an exponential rise in renewable energy, the use of fossil fuel has still not declined to safe levels. According to the Production Gap Report 2023, governments are planning on producing around 110pc more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 2ºC.


The Global Stocktake on energy at COP28 made clear the need for transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

The magnitude of the production gap is also projected to grow over time: by 2050 planned fossil fuel production will be 350pc and 150pc above the levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5ºC to 2ºC respectively.

This places a big responsibility on the COP Troika to lead by example on transparency, high integrity, credibility and a robust monitoring mechanism for achieving net zero by 2040 for developed countries and by 2050 for developing countries. The COP Troika can restore hope and re-establish trust in the multilateral system by presenting the third cycle of NDCs (NDCs 3.0) that is fully aligned with all aspects of the GST decision at COP28, including mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage.

It will be equally important to disclose how voluntary pledges (Global Methane, Forest Declaration) and alignment with the SDGs and the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework goals are integrated into NDC and tracked for implementation. The comprehensiveness, accuracy, consistency and comparability in completing the checklist while avoiding double counting as per Article 4.13 of the Paris Agreement will be the benchmark for evaluating the real success of COP29. The best way to demonstrate integrity for the COP Troika countries would be to show how national planning, governance and regulations are being developed to implement their NDCs.

As we continue to break guardrails accelerating our clash with nature, the political paradox at play is becoming both dangerous and worrisome. High level of hunger is predicted to continue for another 136 years in many developing countries. In Pakistan, food insecurity is projected to rise from 40pc to 60pc by 2050 with a 40pc stunting and 17.7pc rate of wasting.

Across the world, the demand for water is exceeding availability. Global water demand is projected to increase by 20-25pc by 2050 while the number of watersheds with predictable water supply will decrease by 19pc. Pakistan’s per capita water availability has gone down from 5000m3 to 906m3 with groundwater reserves near depletion.

The rapid decline in mass balance of cryosphere will accelerate sea level rise, jeopardising the lives and livelihoods of millions. As part of the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush mountain range, Pakistan relies heavily on snow and glacial melt with a 1,050-kilometre long coastal belt exposing the country to both hydrometeorological disasters and acute water scarcity.

Gender disparity at the global level continues to deprive women of equal opportunity and access to resources. This year, Pakistan ranked 145 out of 146 countries in the Gender Parity Index, making the human capital disparity disturbingly stark.

The uptick in conflicts and disruption in supply chains leading to high inflation and mounting geopolitical tensions are adding to the brewing crisis, with no respite in sight.

In the backdrop of all the cataclysmic indicators, climate took a back seat at UN General Assembly this year to the deteriorating geopolitical context. The Pact for the Future at the Summit of the Future outlined 56 actions to turbocharge the SDGs and speed up progress on peace, security, global governance, climate change, digital cooperation, human rights, gender, youth and future generations.

The landmark declaration set out a promise for a revitalised world order but failed to state how it plans to translate lofty statements into realistic achievements.

The real test of intent behind diplomatically crafted language at multilateral and bilateral forums aspiring for peace and prosperity will require moving away from conflict to cooperation (C2C), recognising the need for working with each other for peaceful coexistence, investing in stabilising the climate and building a future on the principles of equity and justice.

The writer is chief executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change.
aisha@csccc.org.pk

Published in Dawn, October 23th, 2024

PAKISTAN



Circular debt — the hidden force behind rising electricity costs

The power sector’s real crisis isn’t energy, it’s debt, and until we untangle this financial knot, affordable electricity and sustainable growth will remain out of reach.

Ammar H Khan 

Published October 19, 2024
DAWN

The real crisis in the power sector is not about power generation; rather about debt. Surplus power generation capacity isn’t a bad thing — it’s an opportunity to drive industrial growth and stimulate demand. However, the inability to capitalise on this is largely due to a debt overhang, stemming from a combination of project debt, working capital debt, and circular debt.

The circular debt in the power sector is largely a function of inefficiency, and incessant subsidies, eventually resulting in the same ballooning to more than Rs2.26 trillion. The impact of such a debt has a direct impact on electricity bills, with roughly Rs3.23 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) being attributed to just mark-up payments, or the financing costs of such debt. Adjusting for taxes, the same increases to Rs3.81 per kWh, for most non-protected consumers. The numbers may vary for different slabs, but the impact on electricity bills remains significant.

The financing cost of circular debt is embedded in the electricity bills as a PHL Charge, which overall inflates electricity bills. Consumers must pay for this cost, solely due to the inefficiency, and bad financial management at a macro level. Bloating the electricity tariff with such extraneous costs has resulted in a scenario where demand for electricity continues to drop, restricting industrial and economic growth in the process.

The demand for electricity is price sensitive — it is estimated that a 1 per cent drop in electricity prices leads a to a 0.3pc growth in electricity consumption. Similarly, growth in electricity consumption has a direct, and strong correlation with economic growth. In a nutshell, it is not possible to generate sustainable economic growth, without access to affordable electricity and it is not possible to make electricity affordable, without solving the debt problem. In effect, the bloated nature of debt acts as a drag to broader economic growth.

Framing it right

Framing the problem is the first step in solving a problem. The power problem needs to be partially framed as a debt problem first. Within the circular debt of Rs2.26 trillion, roughly Rs683 billion can be attributed to a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) called Power Holding Limited (PHL). Another Rs1.060 trillion can be attributed to the amount that is payable by the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) to various power producers. Finally, an amount of Rs520 billion is non-interest bearing. Effectively, an amount of Rs1.74 trillion attracts a financing cost, or mark-up, which is paid by electricity consumers across the board through their monthly electricity bills.

It is estimated that the cost of financing for PHL is in the range of three-month Kibor (Karachi Inter Bank Offered Rate) plus 0.45pc. Similarly, the amount that is payable by CPPA to power producers is around 3m Kibor plus 2pc for the first 60 days, followed by the same increasing to 3m Kibor plus 4.5pc for any amount that is overdue by more than 60 days. It is estimated that roughly half of the payables of CPPA are overdue 60 days, resulting in an average financing cost of 3m Kibor plus 3.5pc.

It is important to note here that power producers cover for these receivables through borrowing commercially on their balance sheets. The average cost of borrowing for any power plant remains less than the average financing cost that the consumer is paying through the electricity bills. Effectively, it is more financially feasible for the power producer to delay realisation of receivables (after adjusting for energy payments), as the same starts attracting a financial cost of 3m Kibor plus 4.5pc. This is a distortionary practice, and needs to end through a better price discovery mechanism.
Rationalising the costs

All of this debt, and payables are effectively backed by the sovereign, either through a sovereign guarantee, or other contractual arrangements. Despite the same, the financing cost remains much higher than the financing cost of the sovereign, which remains lower than 3m Kibor. In the current context, when interest rates are on a declining trend, certain sovereign-backed entities, such as Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP), or Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation (Passco), have been able to borrow at significantly lower interest rates than even 3m Kibor. Due to the financing cost being passed on to the consumer in the case of electricity, little or no effort is made to actually rationalise the cost, and improve household economics for the electricity consumer in the process.

Similar to the structure of Treasury Single Account (TSA) espoused by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), wherein all government funds are deposited in a single account — debt should also be treated in the same manner. It makes little sense for the sovereign, or sovereign-guaranteed entities to be borrowing at wildly different rates from the market, due to the absence of a price discovery mechanism. Such a structure increases electricity prices for the consumer, constraining their ability to increase consumption of electricity, while restricting growth in the process.

The IMF, in its latest Country Report for Pakistan, has explicitly noted that PHL debt needs to be converted into cheaper public debt. This is not just economically feasible, but also beneficial for the consumer. A plan needs to be in place to benefit from declining interest rates, and swap out circular debt with much cheaper public debt — thereby saving significant financial costs in the process.

Moving to Islamic banking

There has been a surplus of liquidity with Islamic Banks in the country, with the sovereign being able to raise debt through an Islamic structure at a lower cost than conventional debt.

There is a possibility to swap out, or convert, PHL debt of PKR with longer term Islamic instruments, with a maturity of 5 years, or 10 years. As interest rates continue to decline, it is possible to borrow at much lower interest rates than existing 3m KIBOR, resulting in a net benefit for the consumer.

Moreover, as the debt moves out from PHL to cheaper sovereign debt, there is a net gain for all stakeholders. The PHL charges that are paid by consumers reduce, while mark-up paid by all entities also reduce. This results in a net benefit to the system at large.

Similarly, the payables of Rs1.060 trillion by CPPA also need to be swapped out by sovereign debt. The same can be done in a staggered manner. The more expensive payables that are overdue and being charged at a mark-up of 3m KIBOR plus 4.5pc can be swapped out first, to significantly reduce mark-up expense on the same. The government can effectively issue long-term bonds, whether conventional or Islamic, depending on the appetite of participants, and swap out the same with receivables of power producers.

Effectively, the power producers get a long-term sovereign bond in lieu of their receivables — which they can trade in the open market, and either convert into cash, or just accrue income on the same till its maturity.

This opens up liquidity for power producers, who can then use the cash to repurpose themselves for a competitive market regime, or just pay dividends to shareholders. The same instruments can be priced through a competitive auction via the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) thereby resulting in more efficient, and competitive pricing, as the PSX is able to attract a wider range of investors potentially resulting in better price discovery, and lower costs.

Improving the risk profile

It is important to consider here that the receivables of power producers are already being financed by banks — settling the same in lieu of sovereign debt improves risk profile for all stakeholders. The banks get access to a tradable sovereign instrument, reducing their exposure to the power sector, while also opening up an appetite for more financing in the area to enhance energy security, or efficiency. There is even an option to provide tax incentives on such instruments, subject to the net cost to the government being able to compensate for any forgone tax revenue.

Through such a maneuver, the risk profile improves for all stakeholders, while the financing cost also reduces. As the circular debt is swapped out, it becomes public debt, while electricity consumers see a straight reduction of Rs3.81 per kWh in their electricity prices. It is estimated that through the swapping manoeuvre alone, it is possible to save Rs90 billion in financing costs annually, just through contraction of lending spread, and utilisation of better terms available with the sovereign. This results in a consumer surplus, while the only ones losing are shareholders of financial institutions, who were benefiting from a distorted pricing regime for similar levels of risk.

It is possible to reduce electricity bills by Rs3.81 per kWh, which in addition to other reform measures can stimulate necessary growth in consumption, thereby catalysing industrial expansion. A move towards public debt actually stimulates growth in this context, while generating a consumer surplus at the same time. The primary gain that is being extracted here is an efficiency gain — by eliminating the distortion that exists at which the sovereign borrows directly, or indirectly through different entities.

Structural reforms require time, but efficiency gains can be achieved by minimising distortions. The power sector remains a basket case of a dysfunctional cost-plus pricing regime that has overloaded the consumer with excess costs. Streamlining the same remains critical in making the power sector more competitive, thereby boosting economic growth in the process.

We need to solve the debt problem grounded in principles rather than loading on costs onto the consumer, and deluding oneself into expecting an efficient outcome from the same.

Header image: This is an AI image generated via Shutterstock.

The author is an assistant professor of practice at the School of Business Studies, IBA, Karachi. He has previously worked at several financial institutions in Pakistan, both in commercial banking and capital markets.

PAKISTAN AIR POLLUTION

Yearly trouble

DAWN
Editorial

Published October 25, 2024 

IT is that time of year again. Cities in Pakistan, in particular Lahore, are once more suffocating under the blanket of heavy smog, making it painfully evident that we must move past reactive measures and temporary fixes.

With Lahore hitting an Air Quality Index of 394 — nearly four times above healthy levels — and again being ranked the world’s most polluted city, air pollution in Pakistan has become a public health crisis begging urgent intervention. Similar conditions prevail across the border in India, where the onset of winter traps pollutants in the air, pushing Delhi into the ‘very poor’ AQI category. The sources of this persistent problem are well-documented: vehicular emissions, industrial pollutants, and most critically, the widespread burning of crop residue.

Both India and Pakistan have struggled to address the latter, despite the well-established link between stubble burning and deteriorating air quality. In both countries, farmers continue this practice due to expediency and the lack of viable alternatives for clearing fields. Recent reports indicate that farmers in both Haryana, India, and Punjab, Pakistan, are being arrested and fined for burning crop stubble, yet these punitive measures barely scratch the surface of a much larger problem.

In Pakistan, efforts to mitigate smog have intensified, with the government issuing new school timings and banning fireworks to reduce pollutants. India has similarly implemented emergency actions such as water sprinkling on roads and increasing public transport. However, these are akin to putting band-aids on gaping wounds. The long-term strategies needed to combat this environmental crisis remain elusive.

The core issue lies in the inadequacy of agricultural policies that leave farmers with little choice but to resort to environmentally harmful practices. While Pakistan has introduced ‘Anti-Smog Squads’ to monitor and educate farmers about the dangers of stubble burning, these initiatives are only beginning to take root and are not yet widespread. In India, attempts to promote alternatives, such as subsidising machinery for residue management, have faced significant barriers, including high costs and inadequate outreach.






What is missing from both countries’ approaches is a strategy that not only penalises harmful practices but also provides long-term solutions. While climate diplomacy between India and Pakistan has been proposed, real collaboration on this issue remains sparse. Both nations could benefit from joint initiatives focused on sharing technological advancements, including affordable super-seeders, and coordinating to monitor and control air quality.

Moreover, there is a need to realise that smog is not caused by agriculture alone. Both must invest in renewable energy and modernise industrial processes. Encouraging the use of electric vehicles and enhancing public transport systems are also essential steps that both countries must accelerate. Without a paradigm shift in how air pollution is addressed both Pakistan and India will continue to choke every winter.

Published in Dawn, October 25th, 2024

Daniel Chapo of Frelimo wins Mozambique election

Election officials in Mozambique have announced ruling left-wing party Frelimo's Daniel Chapo as the winner of the presidential election. Government opponents say the vote was tainted with electoral fraud.

Chapo could be Mozambique's first president born after independence from Portugal

Image: Mozambique Liberation Front/AFP

The Mozambican National Electoral Commission (CNE) on Thursday announced Daniel Chapo, of the ruling left-wing Frelimo party, as the winner of the country's presidential election.

Polls had been widely expected to return power to Frelimo, with the opposition alleging voter manipulation and electoral fraud .

How the votes broke down

Chapo took 70.67% of the vote compared to 20.32% for his main opponent, independent candidate Venancio Mondlane. Opposition party Renamo's candidate Ossufo Momade came third with 5.81% of the total votes.


The 47-year-old Chapo would become Mozambique's first president born after independence from Portugal.

Mondlane, backed by the opposition Podemos party, has already claimed he won the vote.

The October 9 elections in the impoverished country were also for parliament and provincial governors.

Frelimo has held power in Mozambique since independence from Portugal in 1975.

The Mozambique capital, Maputo, was deserted ahead of the announcement of the results.

The EU's observer mission reported this week that some of its election observers had been prevented from monitoring counting in certain areas. It also said there was an "unjustified alteration" of results at some polling stations.

Opposition parties have alleged vote fraud since the day of the election.

Frelimo has often been accused of election rigging and has consistently denied this. Incumbent President Filipe Nyusi of Frelimo is stepping down having served the maximum two possible terms.

rc/lo (AFP, Reuters)

Haiti: Gangs attack UN helicopter as violence surges

ASYMMETRICAL WAR AGAINST IMPERIALISM

Haiti has been wracked by unrest since 2021. But a wave of gang violence in recent weeks, including an incident where a UN helicopter was shot at, has raised concerns about the situation in the country.

UN security teams have been sent to Haiti to deal with the growing power of violent armed gangs

 Ramon Espinosa/AP Photo/picture alliance

Armed gangs in Haiti opened fire and hit a UN helicopter on Thursday, forcing it to land in the capital Port-au-Prince.

The Associated Press and other US media outlets said the helicopter carrying three crew members and 15 passengers landed safely in the capital.

UN helicopters are key for delivering food and other aid to millions of Haitians in communities cut off from roads and places ruled by armed gangs.

There was no official confirmation about the attack that targeted the helicopter, which belonged to the UN's World Food Program.

The swell of violence has sparked concerns that armed gangs are trying to exert their influence even more.
What is the situation in Haiti?

Haiti has been wracked by armed gangs since the death of President Jovenel Moise in 2021. Much of Port-au-Prince and its suburbs have since come under the control of various armed groups that have banded together under a common alliance called Viv Ansanm.

Earlier in the month, armed gangs opened fire in a town some 60 miles (97 kilometers) north of the capital, setting dozens of houses on fire.

At least 70 people were killed, including three children.

How the West messed with Haiti  14:44

In the last week alone, more than 10,000 people were internally displaced, according to the UN migration agency.

The agency had said at the start of September that more than 700,000 people were internally displaced across the Caribbean nation, nearly double the figure six months earlier.

What is the international community doing to help?

Haiti's current government has little power and relies on a UN-backed multinational security mission to combat gangs.

The security support mission has some 400 police officers on the ground. Their task is to assist the Haitian national police force.

Kenyan police patrol gang-ridden Haiti capital  08:00

The force is expected to grow to 2,500. Kenya said earlier in the week during a UN Security Council briefing that it was going to strengthen the security mission by another 600 officers by mid-November.

However, the gangs are extremely well armed, largely because of gun trafficking from the US, a point that US lawmakers raised in a letter to the Biden administration.

rm/zc (Reuters, AP, AFP)

MOLEGHAF: Armed Attacks in Port-au-Prince

by Black Alliance for Peace / October 23rd, 2024

On October 20th, 2024, the National Movement for Liberty and Equality of Haitians for Fraternity (Mouvement National pour la Liberté et L’égalité des Haïtiens pour la Fraternité, MOLEGHAF), a member organization of the Black Alliance for Peace (BAP), issued a statement on the increasing violence perpetrated by the paramilitary group “Viv Ansanm” (or “Live Together”) in Solino, Fò Nasyonal, Nazon, Kriswa and other nearby popular neighborhoods in Port-au-Prince.

MOLEGHAF asserts that this escalation in paramilitary violence is rooted in the neocolonial Haitian state’s collaboration with the United States and other colonial powers, all working to maintain their criminal political agenda and keep Haiti under occupation:

“The sellout Haitian bourgeoisie, at the service of U.S. imperialism, controls our country. This is Full Spectrum Dominance. The ruling class seeks to break the back of all forms of Haitian resistance. By burning our neighborhoods down, they exterminate our very ability to resist. While the United Nations is allegedly sanctioning and embargoing weapons and bullets, the murderous group “LIVE TOGETHER” magically has access to hundreds of thousands of U.S. weapons.”

MOLEGHAF stresses that “US and Western imperialism” have targeted their neighborhoods since “at least our national uprising in 2021.” The attacks on their communities continue “even though hundreds of Kenyan troops now occupy us”. As the Haitian elite uses paramilitaries to crush popular Haitian resistance, MOLEGHAF describes the deteriorating situation:

“None of us are free to leave our homes. We don’t know which way to go. The bloodthirsty death squads kill the poor and unfortunate inside their shacks. They burn through homes and memories. We, the population of Solino, have resisted this barbarism for 1 year and 7 months. Stand with us, We need help! The neocolonial Haitian state lays the basis of these massacres. We cannot continue in this situation. Solidarity is our only hope.”

The Black Alliance for Peace calls on the masses, especially those within the heart of the empire, to stand in solidarity with MOLEGHAF. We reiterate that if there is no peace, justice, and popular sovereignty for the Haitian masses, there can be no Zone of Peace in the Americas. We support MOLEGHAF’s efforts to provide the correct, radical analysis of its current predicament: that the ruling classes in Haiti, under the supervision of Western imperialists, “are seeking to break the back of the popular social movements.” We say NO to US-sponsored violence and repression in Haiti and YES to self-determination and freedom!!

Until the last rock is thrown
Until the last poem is written
Until the last voudou is sung
MOLEGHAF will resist alongside the heroic Haitian people!FacebookTwitterRedditEmail

The Black Alliance for Peace (BAP) seeks to recapture and redevelop the historic anti-war, anti-imperialist, and pro-peace positions of the radical black movement. Read other articles by Black Alliance for Peace, or visit Black Alliance for Peace's website.

Fast-food chains nix onions over McDonald's E. coli outbreak

Several popular fast-food restaurants in the US have taken fresh onions off their menus after an E. coli outbreak tied to McDonald's left one person dead and dozens more sick.

McDonald's has halted serving the Quarter Pounder hamburgers linked to the outbreak

Fast-food chains in the United States pulled fresh onions from some menus on Thursday after the vegetable was linked as the likely source of a deadly E. coli outbreak at McDonald's restaurants.

Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, KFC and Burger King were among those that took onions off the menus in some of their restaurants.

"As we continue to monitor the recently reported E. coli outbreak, and out of an abundance of caution, we have proactively removed fresh onions from select Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and KFC restaurants," parent company Yum Brands said in a statement.

McDonald's rival Burger King also said it had removed onions from nearly 5% of its locations.

Diner files lawsuit against McDonald's

McDonald's halted serving Quarter Pounder hamburgers — one of the chain's most popular items — in a fifth of its restaurants after one person died and at least 49 fell ill across 10 states.

One man in Colorado has filed a lawsuit against McDondald's after he ate a Quarter Pounder and tested positive for E. coli days later.

The lawsuit accuses McDonald's of having been negligent in its handling and care of the food, and seeks $50,000 (€46,000) in damages.

On Thursday, McDonald's said that a California-based company was the supplier of the sliced onions that have been withdrawn.

There was no immediate response from the produce company.

Restaurant Brands International, which owns Burger King, said that some 5% of its restaurants used onions distributed by the same company. The onions have since been withdrawn.

However, a spokesperson said the chain had not been contacted yet from health authorities, or reported any illnesses.

dvv/zc (AP, Reuters)

Abortion film shows impact of Texas ban ahead of US election

Los Angeles (United States) (AFP) – A harrowing new documentary about three Texas women who suffered unspeakable tragedy after they were refused abortions hits theaters Friday, as the battle over reproductive rights looms large ahead of the US election.

Jennifer Lawrence produced the harrowing documentary about three Texas women who suffered unspeakable tragedy after they were refused abortions © Michael Tran / AFP

"Zurawski v. Texas" follows Amanda Zurawski, Samantha Casiano and Austin Dennard through hospitals, courtrooms and funerals, in the months after the US Supreme Court -- filled with judges appointed by Donald Trump -- ended federal protections for abortion access.

All three women learned early that their pregnancies were not viable because of severe and uncurable medical problems, but were turned away by doctors who were too afraid to intervene due to the state's highly punitive new laws.

Zurawski went into septic shock after her cervix dilated at just 18 weeks. She spent days fighting for her life in intensive care; damage to her uterus means she is unlikely to be able to get pregnant again.

Casiano was forced to bring her pregnancy to term, despite learning about her fetus's fatal condition at 20 weeks. She watched her newborn daughter gasp for breath for four hours before she died.




Dennard, herself an obstetrician-gynecologist, had to travel to another state for her own abortion, when she learned that the fetus she was carrying was missing parts of its brain and skull, and could not survive.

The women agreed to let cameras follow them as they mounted legal challenges. The film is produced by Oscar winner Jennifer Lawrence, and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.

"Watching what was happening in Texas was devastating," the film's co-director Abbie Perrault told AFP.

"We were just so incredibly moved that through all of the pain that they were experiencing, they were willing to put their faces and names out in public, and really stand up and try to make a change in Texas."
Abortion on the ballot

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris will visit Houston for a rally on Friday, where she is expected to slam Texas's ultra-strict abortion laws.

The visit to a state her party cannot win just 11 days before the election underlines the national significance of reproductive rights in the race for the White House.

Democrats are keen to highlight Republican-sponsored laws banning abortions as soon as a heartbeat is detected, like in Texas, that they believe are deeply unpopular nationwide, and have especially shocked many women.

Zurawski's case has become particularly well-known. She was the named plaintiff of a high-profile class-action suit against Texas, and her plight was name-checked during last month's vice presidential debate.

"If you don't know an Amanda... you soon will," Harris's running mate Tim Walz said, warning of the spread of abortion bans if the Republicans prevail.

Among the documentary's most startling scenes are court hearings in which the women are relentlessly badgered by off-screen state attorneys, even as they sob through recounting their traumas.

In one scene, Casiano has to pause her testimony to be physically sick at the witness stand.

In another, the film shows the body of the daughter who lived for just four dreadful hours.

Casiano "felt very strongly that people needed to see her daughter's face, and understand that her daughter is a real person that suffered under these laws," said Perrault.
'Eerie'

Along with the three women, "Zurawski v Texas" focuses on Molly Duane, a dogged attorney at the Center for Reproductive Rights, who took up their cases.

But their legal progress has been limited. Any victories have been swiftly reversed by the Texas Supreme Court.

State attorneys pin blame on hospitals, asking why plaintiffs did not simply sue their doctors.

But while Texas does technically have limited medical exemptions for abortions, Duane argues that these are so unclear that doctors are justifiably too terrified to operate.

The Texas Medical Board, when asked to clarify the exemptions, denies responsibility, or maintains an "eerie" silence, Duane says in the film.

Perrault and co-director Maisie Crow hope the film can help Americans "to understand more deeply what the laws that are in place are doing" before they cast their votes.

"People wanted to act like these women's stories weren't happening," she said.

"It's maybe convenient to believe they weren't."

© 2024 AFP

MAGA think tank's Trump transition plan goes 'further' than Project 2025 in key area: NYT

Erik De La Garza
October 24, 2024 

2020 ELECTION DENIERS

Donald Trump Jr., Donald Trump and Ivanka Trump (AFP)

A right-wing think tank in existence for just about four years is at the core of the planning for a second Donald Trump presidency, according to the New York Times, which reported Thursday that the group already has nearly 300 executive orders ready for Trump should he return to the Oval Office.

Like Project 2025, the America First Policy Institute has developed a plan “for staffing and setting the policy agenda for every federal agency, one that prioritizes loyalty to Mr. Trump and aggressive flexing of executive power from Day 1,” according to the Times.

But, the publication noted, unlike the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, the institute's transition plans include "discretion."

“It understood what Heritage didn’t: Transition work is always best kept very quiet,” said Heath Brown, a professor of public policy at John Jay College of Criminal Justice who studies presidential transitions,” according to the Times.

However, the group’s vision “is no less Trumpist: It calls for halting federal funding for Planned Parenthood and for mandatory ultrasounds before abortions, including those carried out with medication. It seeks to make concealed weapons permits reciprocal in all 50 states, increase petroleum production, remove the United States from the Paris Agreement, impose work requirements on Medicaid recipients and establish legally only two genders,” the Times reported.

The publication notes that in one critical area, the institute “goes significantly further” by advocating for the removal of nearly all civil service protections for federal workers “by making them at-will employees – a strategy supporters believe will allow Mr. Trump and his aides to root out career staff members who they believe stood in his way in his first administration.”

The group, which the Times adds “has quickly inserted itself into nearly every corner of Mr. Trump’s political machine,” was founded at the end of 2020 by three wealthy Texans.

Kamala's secret weapon against Trump: The F-word that's changing everything

John Stoehr
October 25, 2024 

Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at North Western High School in Detroit, Michigan, U.S., September 2, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

I think the clearest evidence that being called a fascist is hurting Donald Trump is the reaction by “independent” and GOP talking heads who foolishly defend him against the allegations or deflect them.

Their thinking goes something like this:

Yes, yes. It was bad when Trump said, as president, that he wanted “Hitler’s generals.” It was also bad when his former chief of staff said he fits the profile of a fascist. And OK, it was really bad when the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said he’s “a fascist to the core.”

But we’re used to all that, they say. That’s just Trump being Trump. The real question is how will Kamala Harris appeal to undecided voters.

I’ll tell you how she’s going to do that.


By calling him a fascist.

Among these talking heads, there is a working assumption – that undecided voters are not moved by politics but only by policy. If Harris hopes to win them over, they say, the question is what policies are they looking for and how is she going to sell those policies to them.

There is a second assumption layered on top of the first – that Harris can’t reach them with policy if she’s focused on politics. Conclusion: calling Donald Trump a fascist is going to alienate undecided voters.

These assumptions were implicit in Republican pollster Frank Lutz’s commentary last night after the CNN town hall, in which the vice president put the word “fascist” in her own mouth for the first time.

“The pivot to the ‘threat to democracy’ messaging also coincides” with her drop in polls, Luntz said on Twitter Wednesday. “Nearly all forecasts now give Trump a higher chance of winning in November.”

That’s not quite right. Trump’s lead, if you want to call it that, is within the margin of error in polls that shows him a bit ahead of Harris. You can call it “a higher chance of winning” or you can call it a dead heat.

Point is, Luntz assumes cause and effect. He assumes that the more she says Trump is a threat to democracy, the lower her polling will go. Conversely, he assumes that the more she talks about policy, the higher it will go. This interpretation is based on conventional wisdom since the 1990s. It says openly attacking your opponent backfires.

I think there’s something to this conventional wisdom about undecided voters. Obviously, Kamala Harris does, too. That’s why she has spent so much time on the campaign talking about popular government policies that will improve the lives and lift the fortunes of ordinary Americans.

But I also think this conventional wisdom largely gets undecided voters wrong. Policy and politics are not necessarily two distinct things to them. They can be two things, but they are not always. What’s more is that undecided voters very often don’t care about policy. What they care about is often something murkier, like character or vibes.


You could say calling Trump a fascist doesn’t “close the deal.”

But you could say it does.

Given what we know, I think the second one is right.


I’m not alone. CNN’s John King asked a panel of undecided voters for their thoughts after watching Harris call Trump a fascist for the first time while characterizing him as unstable and unfit. She said that while he has an “enemies list,” she has a “to-do list.” King asked the panel if anyone is more likely to vote for Trump. No hands. King confirmed that everyone was either open to Harris or committed.

This is just one TV panel, but it seems to represent a meaningful correction to the conventional wisdom, especially the idea that voters are so inured to Trump’s villainy that nothing he says or does will make a difference. We heard that after he was convicted on 34 felony counts. We heard it again after two former generals said that he’s a fascist.

And yet, when a CNN panel of undecided voters heard Harris’ case for herself and against Trump, they were not prone to giving the former president a second chance. They were not alienated by the vice president’s arguments. They were open to her or committed.


Given all that, the panel’s pro-Harris reaction could be interpreted as if they had learned about the details in the case against Trump for the first time or had finally understood those details with sufficient clarity. In other words, there’s another, third assumption – that undecided voters have heard it all and what they really want to know is policy.

No, they have not heard it all, and Harris knows it.

“I don’t necessarily think that everyone has heard what you and I have heard repeatedly,” she told CNN’s Anderson Cooper, before explaining to the audience what many of them might not know, which is that:


“The people who know Donald Trump best, the people who worked with him in the White House, in the Situation Room, in the Oval Office, all Republicans … who served in his administration, his former chief of staff, former national security advisor, former secretaries of defense and his vice president, have all called him unfit and dangerous.”

She went on: “They have said explicitly that he has contempt for the Constitution of the United States. They have said that he should never again serve as president of the United States. We know that’s why Mike Pence is not running with him, why the job was empty. And today, we learned that John Kelly, a four-star Marine general, who was his longest-serving chief of staff, gave an interview recently in the last two weeks of this election talking about how dangerous Donald Trump is.”

She added: “Why is he telling the American people now? I think of it as if he’s putting out a 911 call to the American people. Understand what could happen if Donald Trump were back in the White House. This time, we must take seriously: those folks who knew him best and who were career people are not going to be there to hold him back.”


How is she going to convince millions of people who already know all this? Cooper had asked. Her answer was they don’t already know.

They need to be told. Once they are told, they will be convinced.

That’s been her campaign from the start. It’s not about the odds, but the stakes, with basic faith in the people to make the right choice.

Nobel laureate economist sounds alarm: Trump's actions could 'bankrupt' Social Security

Matthew Chapman
October 24, 2024 

Nobel Prize-winning economist turned political analyst Paul Krugman issued a dire warning in a New York Times op-ed: the policies former President Donald Trump is running on would decimate the solvency of Social Security and perhaps even "bankrupt" the program altogether.

This comes as many other experts fire off similar alarm bells, with one study saying the federal retirement program's trust fund could be depleted in just six years if all of Trump's policies are adopted.

Social Security, noted Krugman, operates on its own separate budget.

"This system, in which contributions from working-age Americans pay for benefits to seniors, has been placed under pressure from an aging population, which has increased the ratio of beneficiaries to workers. But everyone knew long ago that baby boomers would eventually stop paying in and start taking money out, so way back in the 1980s steps were taken to shore up Social Security’s long-term finances. These steps included increasing the payroll tax rate, making benefits subject to income tax and gradually raising the age of eligibility for full benefits from 65 to 67."

Krugman long expected that further steps would be taken to shore up the system because older adults are the most reliable voters and don't want to see their funds run out. However, he said, Trump is now threatening to blow everything up for short-term gain.

"Trump has made multiple proposals that would undermine Social Security’s finances," wrote Krugman. "These include exempting Social Security benefits, tips and overtime pay from taxes. Less obviously, perhaps, Trump’s tariffs would be inflationary, increasing Social Security’s cost of living adjustments. And deporting undocumented immigrants — many of whom pay payroll taxes — would further worsen the situation."

Worse still, because Trump's plans "would make the hole in Social Security’s finances much bigger while also weakening the economy and adding trillions to [the] national debt," Congress would have limited options to solve the issue.

Ultimately, he concluded, America will be a much less stable place to retire should Trump get another term and enact his agenda.

"The fate of Social Security isn’t my top concern if Trump wins — I’m more concerned about his threat to democracy — but it’s definitely on the list," he wrote.