Mali's Military Government JUNTA - 

Russia Sends Trainers, Not Mercenaries

Mark Fischer/Flickr
A view of Bamako, Mali with the Niger River in the background.

28 DECEMBER 2021
Voice of America (Washington, DC)

By Annie Risemberg

Bamako — Mali's military government has denied hiring Russian mercenaries from the controversial Wagner Group, which has been sanctioned by the European Union for rights abuses. France and 15 other Western nations last week condemned what they said was Russia's deployment of Wagner fighters to Mali. Mali's transitional government says it is only engaged with official Russian military trainers. Analysts weigh in on Russia's military involvement in Mali as French troops are drawing down.

Mali's transitional government this month denied what it called "baseless allegations" that it hired the controversial Russian security firm the Wagner Group to help fight Islamist insurgents.

Western governments and U.N. experts have accused Wagner of rights abuses, including killing civilians, in the Central African Republic and Libya.

The response came Friday after Western nations made the accusations, which Mali's military government dismissed with a demand that they provide independent evidence.

A day earlier, France and 15 other Western nations had condemned what they called the deployment of Wagner mercenaries to Mali.

The joint statement said they deeply regret the transitional authorities' choice to use already scarce public funds to pay foreign mercenaries instead of supporting its own armed forces and the Malian people.

The statement also called on the Russian government to behave more responsibly, accusing it of providing material support to the Wagner Group's deployment, which Moscow denies.

The Mali government acknowledged what it called "Russian trainers" were in the country. It said they were present to help strengthen the operational capacities of their defense and security forces.

Aly Tounkara is director of the Center for Security and Strategic Studies in the Sahel, a Bamako-based think tank.

He says it's hard to tell if the Russian security presence is military or mercenary but, regardless, would likely be supporting rather than front-line fighting.

This could allow the Malian army to have victories over the enemy that will be attributed to them, says Tounkara, which was not the case with the French forces. He says the second advantage is that victories over extremists could allow Mali's military to legitimize itself. We must remember, says Tounkara, that one of the reasons for the forced departure of President Keita, was that the security situation was so bad.

Mali's President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was overthrown in an August 2020 coup led by Colonel Assimi Goita after months of anti-government protests, much of it over worsening security.

Goita launched a second coup in May that removed the interim government leaders, but has promised to hold elections in 2022.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has been pushing Mali's military government to hold elections.

ECOWAS in November expressed concern over a potential Wagner Group deployment to Mali after unconfirmed reports that the military government was in talks with the mercenary group.

Popular protests in Bamako have called for French forces to leave Mali and last year some protesters were seen calling for Russian ones to intervene.

Since French forces first arrived in Mali in 2013, public opinion on their presence has shifted from favorable to widely negative.

The French military has been gradually drawing down its anti-insurgent Operation Barkhane forces from the Sahel region.

French forces this year withdrew from all but one military base in northern Mali, saying the Malian armed forces were ready to take the lead on their own security.

But analysts say one consequence of the French leaving is that the Malian army is seeking other partners.

Boubacar Salif Traore is director of Afriglob Conseil, a Bamako-based development and security consulting firm.

"Official Russian cooperation would be very advantageous for the Malian army in terms of supplying equipment," he says. "Mali, and many African countries, notably the Central African Republic, have concluded that France does not play fair in terms of delivering arms. Every time these states ask for weapons, either there's an embargo or there is a problem in procuring these weapons. Russia can provide these weapons without constraints and it's precisely that which interests Mali."

In September, Mali received four military helicopters and other weapons bought from Russia.

The Malian transitional government's statement Friday did not elaborate on what the Russian trainers would be doing in Mali.

When asked to comment, a government spokesman would not elaborate and referred questions to the ministry of foreign affairs, which does not list any contact numbers on its website.

 

Berlin and Paris concerned over Russian mercenaries in Mali

The Russian mercenary group "Wagner" is notorious; among other things, it has been accused of war crimes in Syria. Now it's allegedly set be deployed in Mali. Germany and France are threatening to withdraw their troops.

    

Malian army soldiers in Gao - will they soon be supported by Russian mercenaries?

The situation is explosive: There are indications that the government in Mali is discussing a paramilitary operation with the Russian mercenary force "Wagner". Malian and Russian authorities are said to be on the verge of signing an agreement to this effect. This was revealed by the Reuters news agency at the beginning of the week, causing a stir in European diplomatic circles.

Mali reacted promptly: The government wants to expand its relations to ensure the security of the country — nothing has yet been signed with Wagner, a spokesperson for the country's Defense Ministry said according to media reports. Not only are several thousand French soldiers stationed in Mali, but 1,000 Bundeswehr troops are also stationed in the country to combat Islamist extremists.

Military cooperation is not new

Mali and Russia have worked together in the past: In 1961, after France's withdrawal, the first Malian president Modibo Keita turned to the former Soviet Union, among others, with the request to train and equip the Malian army. This military cooperation continued until the early 1990s.

Around 1000 members of the German armed forces are involved in the 

UN Minusma mission in Mali

"Most of the military in power in Mali were trained in Russia and are close to the Kremlin," analyst Mahamadou Konaté tells DW. He warns: "We should be careful not to send these mercenaries into action, also because of the risk that they could commit massive human rights violations."

Signals are already coming from France about a possible troop withdrawal from Mali. Involvement of the private Russian company Wagner in Mali would be "incompatible" with maintaining a French force, according to Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. The German Foreign Office also expressed great concern.

German troops in Mali — how much longer?

Germany's Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) wrote on Twitter that such agreements between Mali and Russia would contradict "everything that Germany, France, the EU, and the UN have been doing in Mali for eight years," and also indirectly threatened to withdraw troops as well.

"Russia's interest in further arms sales is of course great," Christoph Hoffmann, a member of the Bundestag representing the FDP, told DW. He added that the German government must now maintain intensive contacts with Mali in order to salvage the situation. He added that Germany would not continue to be involved in the EU mission if there was a real commitment from the Wagner Group. Katja Keul, a member of the Green Party, also considers this "out of the question". 

Denis Tull, a researcher with the Foundation for Science and Politics in Berlin, also expressed concern, saying that if the partnership with Mali is confirmed, it would be a "considerable gamble." When the Central African Republic called in Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group to help in 2018, Paris immediately suspended its activities in the country, he said.

According to Tull, the Malian government's current talks with Russia could also be an attempt to increase pressure — just weeks before the Africa-France summit scheduled for October — and to show France that other alliances are also possible.

Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer threatens the withdrawal 

of the Bundeswehr troops if Russian mercenaries operate in Mali

In Mali's capital Bamako, Thomas Schiller, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, has called for a dialogue between the countries concerned. At the same time, however, he emphasized that Mali and other African countries are sovereign states. "It is not our job to tell Africans what is good for them. It is up to them to define that, and to reform their political system and their army," Schiller told DW.

Kremlin denies mercenary deployment

He said he was not surprised: there have long been rumors of greater Russian involvement in Mali, especially in the area of security training for the armed forces, possibly also through arms deliveries. The problem, he said, is that these claims have never been verified.

Russian mercenaries in the Central African Republic as life guards for 

President Faustin Archange Touadéra

Reuters reported an agreement to send up to a thousand Russian mercenaries to Mali. When DW approached the Kremlin for confirmation, this report was denied by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. Reports surfaced on some Russian websites that claimed that more than 1,200 Russian mercenaries are already in Mali. However, these media platforms are considered dubious and, according to DW research, are apparently controlled by Yevgeny Prigozhin — a close confidant of Vladimir Putin — who is said to head the Wagner Group.

UN accuses Wagner of war crimes

UN experts accuse the mercenaries from Russia of committing war crimes in Central African Republic (CAR). They recently submitted their report to the UN Security Council. In July, an investigation by "The Sentry" — an activist group that investigates money flows related to atrocities — and CNN revealed possible war crimes by mercenaries in CAR. The Russian mercenary group is also active in Libya and Syria. At least in Syria, it is also accused of serious human rights violations.

CONTESTED SPACE

Mali: 'Africa's Afghanistan' sees France withdraw troops and terror groups run amok

Paul Tilsley
Thu, August 18, 2022

It is being called Africa’s Afghanistan, a land where militants linked to both al Qaeda and ISIS jihadists fester, reaping terror, death, displacement and despair. Named the world’s terrorism hotspot, a third of all terrorism-related deaths in 2021 spilled blood over this country’s dusty plains.

Some 2,700 have been killed in West Africa’s Mali in the first six months of this year, up 40% on last year. As the mayhem escalates in this region known as the Sahel, this week the last unilateral Western peacekeeping force was pulled – or was it pushed – out. Mali’s military junta is now letting Russia’s shadowy Wagner mercenary group reportedly run amok, with an ever-growing catalog of human rights abuses against Mali’s people.

"Is Mali Africa's Afghanistan?" Jasmine Opperman, a security consultant specializing in extremism and political violence, discussed with Fox News Digital. "Looking at its history, looking at the complexities of the driving forces, looking at international actors’ involvement aggravating the security situation and acting as a trigger mechanism for extremism, I think we can definitely conclude that based on the similarities, Mali can be considered as Africa's Afghanistan."

A protester holds a placard reading "France, gardener of terrorism" during a demonstration celebrating France's plans to withdraw troops from Mali, in Bamako, on Feb. 19, 2022. The last of the French troops left this week.

(Florent Vergnes/AFP via Getty Images)

AFRICA: THE NEW GROUND ZERO FOR JIHADI TERROR GROUPS, EXPERTS SAY


Former colonizing power France withdrew the last of its 5,100 peacekeeping troops this week, with the insults of an ungrateful Mali regime freshly ringing in its ears, saying France’s President Macron should "permanently abandon his neocolonial, paternalistic and patronizing posture to understand that no one can love Mali better than Malians," spokesman Col. Abdoulaye Maiga said on local TV.

Mali has turned to Russia for help, allowing Moscow’s Wagner PMC or private military company to do its dirty work: "Violence against civilians in Mali has increased significantly since the Wagner Group’s arrival in December 2021," Catrina Doxsee, associate director and associate fellow of the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Fox News Digital.

Doxsee added: "The military junta in Mali, which gained power through a coup in 2021, has prioritized its own power and self-preservation above stability or civilian well-being, and it likely views the Wagner Group’s presence primarily as a tool for 'coup-proofing.' Since Russia and its affiliated PMCs have little concern over human rights abuses, they are appealing partners for an illiberal regime like Mali’s junta."

BLINKEN FLIES INTO 'SUPERPOWER' BATTLEGROUND IN AFRICA

The Russians are far from discreet. As the final French troops flew out of the northern Gao airport this week, two cargo planes landed and reportedly Russian military teams openly unloaded weapons.

Mali is said to be the most dangerous assignment in the world for its 12,000-strong U.N. peacekeeping force. "Since its deployment in 2013, more than 250 peacekeepers have lost their lives, 159 of them in hostile incidents, including IED attacks," the spokesperson for the United Nations' Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission (MINUSMA) told Fox News from Bamako, Mali.

A U.N. armored vehicle that had been hit by an improvised explosive device

 is parked in the U.N. mission in Mali on Nov. 5, 2021.

 (Amaury Hauchard/AFP via Getty Images)

ISIS and al Qaeda relentlessly attack U.N. troops both out on patrol and back at their barracks. "The biggest threat remains the attacks by improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and mines against our convoys and patrols to protect civilians, especially in the northern and central parts of the country," the spokesperson said. "The mission camps have also become targets of terrorist armed groups using direct and indirect fire attacks against the U.N."

RUSSIA WAR WILL HAVE 'SHATTERING' EFFECT ON FOOD SHORTAGES IN AFRICA: 'YOU'RE GOING TO SEE GOVERNMENTS FALL'

MINUSMA’s own so-called explosive ordnance disposal teams search for and deactivate IEDs, but intelligence gathering is perhaps hampered in this deeply devious arena by a United Nations charter that prohibits clandestine intelligence work.

In a 2017 report on peacekeeping in Mali, Researchgate, a scientific research group, noted what it said was a clash of cultures between countries supplying their troops to the U.N.: "Marrying the Western and African capabilities turned out to be challenging due to incoherent procedures, systems, levels of experience as well as reporting mechanisms. In addition, information-sharing from classified NATO databases proved difficult", the report stated.

The Mali government doesn’t make it easy for the U.N. to help them. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock accused the regime of having "torpedoed time and again" Berlin’s efforts.

Annalena Baerbock, Germany's foreign minister, talks to soldiers 

at Camp Castor in Gao, Mali, where the German military is involved in the U.N. mission. 

(Kay Nietfeld/picture alliance via Getty Images)

This week, Germany suspended most of its operations in Mali, after the government denied flyover rights for Germany’s U.N. aircraft. In the last few days, Egypt has suspended its participation in Mali after seven of its soldiers were killed, and the local regime is still holding 49 Ivory Coast U.N. troops who were arrested when they turned up for duty in Bamako a month ago.

Ominously, last week the Institute for Security Studies’ Martin Ewi briefed the U.N. Security Council that Islamic State fighters fleeing Syria are "finding safe havens on the continent," and that Africa may be "the future of the caliphate".

Opperman is concerned the U.S., as in Afghanistan, may get drawn in: "We have a situation in Mali where superpowers have been sucked in or are withdrawing, we have seen now with France stepping aside, with Russia moving in, and who knows how the U.S. will respond to this."

UN: Al-Qaida and Islamic State driving insecurity in Mali


Mon, January 16, 2023 

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Al-Qaida and Islamic State extremist groups are driving insecurity in central Mali and continue to clash near populated areas in the northern Gao and Menaka regions, the U.N. chief said in a new report circulated Monday.

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said “the level and frequency of incidents of violence remain exceptionally high,” with attacks by “violent extremist groups” against civilians accounting for the majority of documented human rights abuses.

“The attacks carried out against civilians by terrorist groups, the battle for influence among them and the violent activities conducted by community militias remain a chilling daily reality, as do the attacks against the Malian Defense and Security Forces and against MINUSMA,” the U.N. peacekeeping force, he said.

Guterres said in the report to the U.N. Security Council that “going forward, military operations to combat the extremist groups will continue to be a crucial component for the restoration of security.”

In central Mali, he said, the extremists are capitalizing on intercommunal conflicts to expand their influence and secure new recruits.

In the northern Gao and Menaka regions, Guterres said fighters from the al-Qaida affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin known as JNIM and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara also continue to clash, causing civilian casualties and thousands to flee the violence.

He said the number of people displaced in Mali increased from 397,000 to 442,620 as of October, with some 1,950 schools closed affecting over 587,000 children. Humanitarian assistance is reaching only 2.5 million people of the 5.3 million in need, he said.

The secretary-general stressed that the ultimate success against the extremist groups will hinge of whether the operations are accompanied by efforts “to ensure respect for human rights and international humanitarian law, foster social cohesion, address structural fragility and deliver basic services.”

Mali has struggled to contain an Islamic extremist insurgency since 2012. Extremist rebels were forced from power in Mali’s northern cities with the help of a French-led military operation, but they regrouped in the desert and began launching attacks on the Malian army and its allies. Insecurity has worsened with attacks on civilians and U.N. peacekeepers.

In August 2020, Mali’s president was overthrown in a coup that included Assimi Goita, then an army colonel. In June 2021, Goita was sworn in as president of a transitional government after carrying out his second coup in nine months. France, Mali’s former colonial power, pulled out the last of thousands of French forces in August 2022 amid acrimonious exchanges with the transitional government.

In late 2021, Goita reportedly decided to allow the deployment of Russia’s Wagner group, a private military contractor with ties to the Kremlin that is also operating in Ukraine to support Moscow’s troops in the 11-month war.

The report does not name Wagner, but says MINUSMA “documented violations of international humanitarian and human rights law allegedly committed during military operations conducted by the Malian armed forces, accompanied by foreign security personnel and dozos,” who are traditional hunters.

It says the U.N. force also documented “some instances in which foreign security personnel appear to have committed violations of human rights and international humanitarian law while conducting both air and ground military operations in the center of the country.”

On the political front, Mali’s presidential election which had been scheduled for February 2022 is now slated to take place in February 2024.

Guterres pointed to progress in putting a single electoral management body into operation and the submission of a preliminary draft constitution. He urged authorities to expedite implementation of the electoral timetable published in July 2022.

Equally important to Mali’s lasting stabilization, he said, is implementation of the 2015 peace agreement signed by three parties — the government, a coalition of groups called the Coordination of Movements of Azawad that includes ethnic Arabs and Tuaregs who seek autonomy in northern Mali, and a pro-government militia known as the Platform.

“However," Guterres said, “the recent decision by the movements to suspend their participation in the implementation process is cause for serious concern.”

The secretary-general stressed that the primary responsibility for moving the peace process forward lies with the parties, and he urged them “to engage constructively with each other and the international mediation team to overcome the current hurdles.”

Violence soars in Mali in the year after Russians arrive




This undated photograph handed out by French military shows Russian mercenaries, in northern Mali. Western officials say violence against civilians in Mali has risen in the year since hundreds of Russian mercenaries have started working alongside the West African country's armed forces to stem a decade-long insurgency by Islamic extremists. Diplomats, analysts and human rights groups say extremists linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group have only gotten stronger and there's concern the Russian presence will further destabilize the already-troubled region. (French Army via AP)

SAM MEDNICK
Sat, January 14, 2023 

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Alou Diallo says he was drinking tea with his family one morning last month when groups of “white soldiers” invaded his village in central Mali, setting fire to houses and gunning down people suspected of being Islamic extremists. He scrambled to safety in the bush, but his son was shot and wounded while fleeing, then was finished off as he lay on the ground.

“I watched my 16-year-old son die,” Diallo told The Associated Press in Mali's capital, Bamako, where he lives in a makeshift camp for displaced people. As he recounted that awful Saturday in his village of Bamguel, the 47-year-old former cattle breeder made no attempt to hide the anger toward the troops, which he believed to be Russian mercenaries, who turned his world upside down.

“I really want peace to return and things to go back to normal,” he said. "Here in Bamako, I live a life I didn’t choose.”

It’s been more than a year since hundreds of fighters from the Wagner Group, a shadowy Russian military contractor, began working alongside Mali’s armed forces to try to stem a decade-long insurgency by Islamic extremists in the West African country, Western officials say.


But since the mercenaries arrived, diplomats, analysts and human rights groups say indiscriminate violence against civilians has grown, the extremists linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group have only gotten stronger, and there’s concern the Russian presence will further destabilize the already-troubled region.

More than 2,000 civilians have been killed since December 2021, compared with about 500 in the previous 12 months, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, a nongovernmental organization. At least a third of those deaths recorded last year were from attacks involving the Wagner Group, according to the data compiled by ACLED.

“They are killing civilians, and by their very presence, giving Malian security forces a green light to act on their worst inclinations,” said Michael Shurkin, senior fellow at Atlantic Council and director of global programs at the consultancy group 14 North Strategies.

Military contractors from Wagner, which was founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a millionaire businessman with ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, have been bolstering Moscow's forces during its invasion of Ukraine. But experts say they also operate in a handful of African countries.

Ever since Mali's military seized power in two coups starting in 2020, a junta led by Col. Assimi Goita has had tense relations with the international community.

France sent troops to Mali in 2013 to help its former colony drive Islamic militants from northern areas of the country but withdrew them in August as relations frayed and anti-French sentiment grew in the population. The West says Mali is increasingly looking to Moscow for security, although the junta says it has only invited in military trainers.

Alassane Maiga, head of communications for the junta, insisted that Wagner was not operating in the country. Asked about the attacks on civilians, Maiga said Mali’s government protects its citizens and their property.

“The army’s protection and security missions are carried out with respect for human rights and international humanitarian law,” he said.

The Wagner Group did not respond to requests for comment. At a U.N. Security Council debate on Tuesday, Russia’s deputy ambassador Anna Evstigneeva rejected attempts from abroad “to besmirch Russian assistance to Mali,” where Moscow has a bilateral agreement to assist the transitional government. She did not mention the Wagner Group.

Up to 1,000 mercenaries have been deployed and the Wagner Group is being paid nearly $11 million a month to provide security and training, according to a report by the U.S. Military Academy’s Combating Terrorism Center, which studies extremist violence.

The report said Wagner’s forces are struggling to make significant gains, with jihadi violence increasing. During the rainy season between June and September when fighting usually subsides, there were over 90 attacks against civilians and the military by an al-Qaida linked extremist group, compared with six in the same period a year earlier, it said, and an August assault on a barracks by an Islamic State-linked group killed at least 42 Malian soldiers.

In the bloodiest attack, Human Rights Watch said Mali’s army and foreign troops suspected to be Russian rounded up and killed an estimated 300 men in the town of Moura in March. Some were believed to be Islamic extremists but most were civilians. The investigation cited 27 people, including witnesses, traders, community leaders, diplomats and security analysts.

Mali’s Defense Ministry reported a similar incident at the time but said it had killed 203 “terrorists” and arrested 51 others.

“There are broad reports of human rights abuses across the region where they are working,” U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland said of the Wagner mercenaries. “And we worry that these forces are not interested in the safety and security of the people of Mali but, instead, are interested in enriching themselves and strip-mining the country and are making the terrorism situation worse.”

Samuel Ramani, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank, said Russia is not very credible at counterterrorism in Africa or more broadly.

“What we’ve seen repeatedly is that Russia and the Wagner Group forces are much better at strengthening the hold of authoritarian regimes in power than actually combating rebels and terrorist groups,” Ramani said, citing their limited knowledge of the terrain, strained relationships with low-ranking officers and a rigid command and control structure.

Many Malians accuse the military and the white soldiers working with them of arbitrary arrests of civilians herding cattle, farming or going to market. Most of them are ethnic Fulani who are increasingly targeted by security forces suspecting them of supporting the Islamic militants.

Rights groups say these alleged abuses aid the extremists, who capitalize on public grievances for use as a recruiting tool.

A 29-year-old cattle herder named Hamidou said he was arrested at his home in Douentza village in central Mali with two other people in November and accused of being an Islamic militant. He was locked in a tiny room where he was bound, beaten and interrogated by “white soldiers.”

“We were severely beaten daily. We didn’t think we’d survive,” said Hamidou, who asked to be identified only by his first name for fear of reprisal, adding that most of those detained were ethnic Fulani, like him. “From the day Wagner came to Mali until today, arbitrary arrests and killings of Fulani civilians have been increasing tremendously.”

The AP was unable to verify all of his account independently but a human rights researcher who also asked not to be identified for fear of reprisal said he saw the scars on Hamidou’s back and forehead after his release.

Thousands of United Nations peacekeeping troops have been in Mali for nearly a decade to protect civilians from violence, but Mali’s government has constrained their ability to operate, and countries such as Benin, Germany, Sweden, Ivory Coast and the United Kingdom have announced troop withdrawals, according to the International Crisis Group.

Nuland, the U.S. diplomat, said the Wagner Group has encouraged the junta to deny the peacekeepers access to areas where it has a mandate to investigate abuses. Security is “becoming more difficult as Wagner forces and others take on a larger role in the country and squeeze out U.N. peacekeepers,” she said.

While many locals say they detest Wagner, they fear nothing will change until there is a new government following elections scheduled for February 2024.

“It is up to the Malians to decide what steps to follow for the return of peace in Mali," said Seydou Diawara, head of a political opposition group. "Force and pressure by the international community on the military can only worsen the security and humanitarian situation.”

THE WAGNER GROUP

Reports of Russia mercenary deal in Mali alarm France


Issued on: 14/09/2021 -

Malians hold a photograph with an image of Colonel Assimi Goita, leader of Mali's military junta, and Russia's flag during a pro-Malian Armed Forces (FAMA) demonstration in Bamako, Mali, May 28, 2021.

 © Amadou Keita, REUTERS

Text by: FRANCE 24

Video by: Cyril PAYEN

A deal is close that would allow Russian mercenaries into Mali, seven diplomatic and security sources told Reuters. Such an agreement would extend Russian influence over security affairs in West Africa and trigger fierce opposition from former colonial power France, which has spent eight years fighting terrorism in this troubled region.

Paris has begun a diplomatic drive to prevent the military junta in Mali enacting the deal – which would permit Russian private military contractors, the Wagner Group, to operate there – the sources told Reuters.

A European source who tracks West Africa and a security source in the region told Reuters that at least 1,000 mercenaries could be involved. Two other sources believed the number was lower, but did not provide figures.

Four sources said the Wagner Group would be paid about 6 billion CFA francs (€9m/$10.8m) a month for its services. One security source working in the region said the mercenaries would train Malian military and provide protection for senior officials.

If Reuters’ sources are correct, it would be a “bombshell revelation”, said FRANCE 24 senior reporter Cyril Payen.

“The French are receding, they’re leaving, especially northern Mal; this is Operation Barkhane [which has] more than 5,000 troops in Mali – so the game is between superpowers where let’s say Moscow is sending these guys on the ground when France is leaving,” Payen continued.

“This is exactly the same experience in the Central African Republic at the border with Chad and the mercenaries of Wagner," said Payen. "They are renowned because they are working in Ukraine, in Sudan and many places where they train in secrecy, they live in secrecy... It’s extremely difficult to talk to these people to know exactly who they are and what is their purpose – and they also die in secrecy.”

What is the Russian Wagner Group?
01:16

Reuters could not confirm independently how many mercenaries could be involved, how much they would be compensated, or establish the exact objective of any deal involving Russian mercenaries would be for Mali's military junta.

Reuters was unable to reach the Wagner Group for comment. Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, who media outlets including Reuters have linked to the Wagner Group, denies any connection to the firm.

His press service also says on its social networking site Vkontakte that Prigozhin has nothing to do with any private military company, has no business interests in Africa and is not involved in any activities there.

His press service did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment for this story.

Potential threat to counter-terrorism

France's diplomatic offensive, the diplomatic sources said, includes enlisting the help of partners including the United States to persuade Mali's junta not to press ahead with the deal, and sending senior diplomats to Moscow and Mali for talks.

France is worried the arrival of Russian mercenaries would undermine its decade-old counter-terrorism operation against al Qaeda and Islamic State group-linked insurgents in West Africa’s Sahel region at a time when it is seeking to draw down its 5,000-strong Barkhane mission to reshape it with other European partners, the diplomatic sources said.

The French foreign ministry also did not respond, but a French diplomatic source criticised interventions by the Wagner Group in other countries.

"An intervention by this actor would therefore be incompatible with the efforts carried out by Mali’s Sahelian and international partners engaged in the Coalition for the Sahel for security and development of the region," the source said.

A spokesperson for the leader of Mali's junta, which took power in a military coup in August 2020, said he had no information about such a deal.

"These are rumours. Officials don't comment on rumours," said the spokesperson, Baba Cisse, who declined further comment.

Mali's defence ministry spokesperson told Reuters: "Public opinion in Mali is in favour of more cooperation with Russia given the ongoing security situation. But no decision [on the nature of that cooperation] has been made."

Russia's defence and foreign ministries did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment, nor did the Kremlin or the French presidency.

The mercenaries' presence would jeopardise Mali's funding from the international partners and allied training missions that have helped rebuild Mali's army, four security and diplomatic sources said.

Franco-Russian rivalry in Africa

Having Russian mercenaries in Mali would strengthen Moscow’s push for global prestige and influence, and be part of a wider campaign to shake up long-standing power dynamics in Africa, the diplomatic sources said.

More than a dozen people with ties to the Wagner Group have previously told Reuters it has carried out clandestine combat missions on the Kremlin’s behalf in Ukraine, Libya and Syria. Russian authorities deny Wagner contractors carry out their orders.

Mali's military junta has said it will oversee a transition to democracy leading to elections in February 2022.

As relations with France have worsened, Mali's military junta has increased contacts with Russia, including Defence Minister Sadio Camara visiting Moscow and overseeing tank exercises on September 4.

A senior Malian defence ministry source said the visit was in "the framework of cooperation and military assistance" and gave no further details. Russia's defence ministry said deputy defence minister Alexander Fomin had met Camara during an international military forum and "discussed defence cooperation projects in detail as well as regional security matters related to West Africa". No further details were released.

The French foreign ministry's top Africa diplomat, Christophe Bigot, was dispatched to Moscow for talks on September 8 with Mikhail Bogdanov, Putin’s point person on the Middle East and Africa. Russia's foreign ministry confirmed the visit.

France's foreign ministry declined to comment to Reuters on the visit. Reuters could not immediately reach Bigot for comment. The Russian foreign ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment from Bogdanov.

“They try to fill the gap to counter geopolitically French influence in West Africa,” Payen said. “In the [neighbouring] Central African Republic, there is really a proxy war in the field because Wagner is taking care of the presidential security against the French, so it’s contaminating the relations between the two countries.”

“It’s turned very nasty on the ground between Russian and French diplomats,” Payen continued. “The idea is just to grab power for not too much because Wagner is used to, for example, taking care of mining companies to get money from the governments and France is not doing the same.”

(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS)

'Putin secret army': Wagner group might be allowed into Mali soon

Issued on: 14/09/2021 - 
Video by: Haxie MEYERS-BELKIN

Mali's military junta is in talks with Russian private security group Wagner to hire up to a thousand mercenaries in the West African country, two French sources said on Tuesday. Such a deal could push already fraying relations between Paris and Mali to breaking point, and underscore a growing Russian influence in a region where former colonial power France has been the unrivalled foreign presence.

  

Mali forces fire tear gas to clear Bamako protesters

AFP , Wednesday 12 Aug 2020


Supporters of the Imam Mahmoud Dicko and other opposition political parties attend a mass protest demanding the resignation of Mali's President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in Bamako, Mali August 11, 2020. REUTERS


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Security forces in Mali's capital fired tear gas Wednesday to clear hundreds of protesters from a central square, where they had camped overnight following a protest demanding the president's resignation.

About 1,000 people spent the night on the streets of the capital Bamako, an AFP journalist said, before national guardsmen and gendarmes broke them up early in the morning.

"This is a provocation from the regime," said Nouhou Sarr, from the Mali's opposition June 5 Movement. "Rounds of tear gas will not deter us".

Aminata Diallo, a 19-year-old opposition supporter, said that security forces began dispersing the protesters in the early morning while people were eating and washing.

Thousands of protesters marched in Bamako on Tuesday, despite rainfall and pleas from mediators to stay home, to demand the resignation of embattled President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita.

The rally marked a resumption of opposition protests after a weeks-long truce in the June 5 Movement's push to topple the 75-year-old leader.

The loose alliance of opposition and religious leaders has been channeling deep anger in Mali over a dire economy, perceived government corruption and an eight-year jihadist conflict.

Its campaign plunged Mali into crisis last month when 11 people died during three days of unrest following an anti-Keita protest, in the worst political strife Mali has seen in years.

The 15-nation ECOWAS bloc stepped in to mediate, with its heads of government suggesting the formation of a new unity government to end the crisis, while sticking by Keita.

The June 5 Movement has repeatedly rejected the proposals and continues to demand Keita's departure.

The group also ignored a plea from former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, the chief ECOWAS mediator to Mali, who on Monday urged them stop protesting and to enter dialogue.

The poor Sahel nation's neighbours and allies are anxious to prevent it sliding into chaos.

Swathes of Mali's territory are already outside of the control of the government, which is struggling to contain a jihadist insurgency which first emerged in 2012, and which has claimed thousands of lives.

Mali: Hundreds of militants killed in large-scale operation, army says

The West African nation has seen an uptick in violence in recent weeks as European troops drawdown their operations. The country remains a stronghold of both al-Qaida and Islamic State (IS) affiliated terrorist groups.



Several international military missions remain in Mali

Mali's armed forces on Friday said they killed more than 200 militants during an operation in March.

In a statement, the army said that a military operation between 23 and 31 March in the area around Moura, a village in central Mali, killed 203 combatants. They arrested 51 people and seized large quantities of weapons as well.

News outlets have not been able to independently verify the information because of a lack of access.

Malians suffer under strain of economic sanctions

African leaders have sought help from the international community for years to fight jihadi terrorism in the western Sahel, an area that stretches across Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso.

Senegal's President Macky Sall, currently the chairman of the African Union, told DW in February that Africa has been "pleading with the [UN] Security Council for the last 10 or 12 years to take greater responsibility" but they have not been able to rally support.
Situation deteriorates in Mali

Mali has seen an uptick in violence in recent weeks, with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warning the UN Security Council that Mali's counter-terrorism efforts had "disastrous consequences for the civilian population," AFP news agency reported.

The UN also said Friday that thousands fleeing fighting in Mali had arrived in Niger.

Mali cutting off ties with France

Mali's army said it was guided by human rights and international law in its statement on Friday, and called for "restraint against defamatory speculations."

A day earlier, the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali, known by the acronym MINUSMA, said security had "deteriorated considerably" in the border area with Burkina Faso and Niger.

French and European troops withdraw

France and its European partners announced on February 17 that it would pull most of its troops from Mali by summer as political and security situation continued to deteriorate with repeated coups in the country.

French forces fought Islamic insurgents in Mali for nearly a decade, as the country remains a stronghold of both al-Qaida and Islamic State (IS) affiliated terrorist groups.

The announcement ended France's Barkhane counter-terrorism mission, which includes Canada, and the Takuba mission, where European special forces support Barkhane.

France said it would move operations to Niger instead.

While experts have expressed concerns about the uptick in violence as a result of the withdrawal, Germany has been under pressure to end its Mali operations too.

rm/jcg (Reuters, AFP)

Mali and Burkina Faso: Did the coups halt jihadist attacks?


Natasha Booty - BBC News
Sat, July 30, 2022 

Many Malians welcomed the coups following months of anti-government protests

Widespread anger at chronic insecurity in the West African countries of Mali and Burkina Faso paved the way for military men to kick out failing governments over the past two years.

"There's no more room for mistakes," said Mali's coup leader as he seized power in August 2020.

"We have more than what it takes to win this war," echoed Burkina Faso's new man in charge earlier this year.

So are citizens now more safe?

The short answer is, no.

In both countries, attacks by Islamist militants on civilians have only increased. The same is true of civilian deaths - more ordinary people are being killed by Islamists, militants and the military.

Burkina Faso graph showing the rise of civilian deaths and Islamist attacks on civilians

"The tallies for each year are increasing year by year," says Héni Nsaibia, a senior researcher covering West Africa's Sahel region for the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (Acled).


Data supplied to the BBC by Acled in June compares the 661 days before and after Mali's coup in August 2020, and the 138 days before and after Burkina Faso's coup in January 2022.

To gather this data Acled relies on a network of "informants and professionals" as well as media reports, but Mr Nsaibia says tracking violence is particularly hard in the Sahel because of "Russian-driven disinformation, and the states themselves often feed the media with fake reports to make them appear more successful than they really are".

Russia, which backs Mali's junta, has consistently denied such allegations in the past. The Mali and Burkina Faso governments have not responded to BBC requests for comment.

One of the deadliest months on record was March 2022. Acled says 790 civilians were killed in Mali.

Mali graph showing the rise of civilian deaths and Islamist attacks on civilians

Some of these civilians were killed by militants from the local branch of the Islamic State group in Ménaka, according to Acled, and there were other smaller attacks. But the vast majority were civilians massacred in the town of Moura by the Malian army, rights groups agree.

"According to multiple reports, the Malian army and Russian mercenaries entered Moura looking for what they claimed was a meeting of jihadist leaders. They attacked civilians and the UN claims that they killed towards 500 civilians in a three-day period," says International Crisis Group (ICG) Sahel project director, Richard Moncrieff.

Malian authorities have denied that any civilians were killed in Moura, saying only Islamist militants died. It has since refused access to the UN for an investigation into the deaths, and launched its own instead.

"This is a classic problem, sometimes referred to as the issue of the 'missing dead'," says Mr Nsaibia of Acled. "State-sanctioned violence goes unreported, but sometimes even framed as being perpetrated by someone else."

He says unreliable media coverage presents a key obstacle, as do the often remote, rural locations of such attacks in countries in the Sahel - plus "there is a prevailing fear among communities about speaking out".

In some instances the lines between state actor and civilian militia can seem blurred too - Burkina Faso in particular has a tradition of armed community militias, Mr Moncrieff says, for whom the government created an official role in 2020.

Such militias in the Sahel are increasingly being called upon to face down the jihadist threat, but are often outgunned and outnumbered. Some have also been accused of committing violent abuses against civilians.
'Clandestine armies'

Malian authorities are fully in control of as little as 15% of the country's territory, according to a recent UN report. Meanwhile in Burkina Faso only about 60% of the country is under state control, says the West African regional bloc Ecowas.

Islamist militants in Mali and Burkina Faso have a huge amount of firepower, analysts say.

"It's warfare between an army and a clandestine army" and in large swathes of these countries "the staying power of the state is not there", argues political scientist Abdourahmane Idrissa, based at the University of Leiden.

In Burkina Faso as well as Mali, Islamists engage in "classic asymmetric warfare," says ICG's Mr Moncrieff, "where they don't take control of any cities. They do increasingly encircle cities and cut them off in order to flex their muscles, and otherwise have become very rural."

One of the catalysts for January's coup in Burkina Faso was a brazen raid in which jihadists killed 57 gendarmes at camp in Inata, in the north of the country. The gendarmes had resorted to scavenging for food before the attack, after their requests for rations and more ammunition went unheeded.

"It was a shock - almost a whole unit was wiped out - and they died in conditions everybody thought were deplorable," former Burkinabè soldier-turned-analyst Mahamoudou Sawadogo tells the BBC.

Since then under the new junta, Mr Sawadogo says, the armed forces have been promised better conditions, more resources plus an anti-terrorism strategy review - "but that hasn't fixed the problem".

"Attacks are on the up, there's more violence against civilians and more territorial control has been lost to armed groups - so the putschists' strategy isn't adequate against the threat," he adds.

Structural changes to unify Burkina Faso's armed forces under a single command have also failed, says Mr Sawadogo.
'Exploiting the void'

Neighbouring Mali, with its longer history of insurgency, is not faring any better.

It has been the epicentre of Islamist violence in the Sahel for the past decade, with jihadists enabling ethnic Tuareg rebels to seize control of much of the north in 2012.

French troops were called in to tackle the insurgency the following year, with Malians initially welcoming the intervention by its former coloniser. But after nine years they are leaving Mali after falling out with junta, and Mali has also decided to quit the multi-national G5 Sahel force that was jointly created to fight the jihadists.

As the French-led Barkhane force has shifted the central hub of its anti-jihadist operation to Niger, militants from Islamic State in the Greater Sahara have "exploited the void left behind" to wage "unprecedented levels of violence" in the regions of Menaka and Gao, according to Mr Nsaibia.

Some analysts say that the Mali junta's activities since taking power - including hiring troops from Russian security contractor Wagner and buying a large number of arms from Russia - have failed for lack of coherent strategy.

"The army is now more active - the massive corruption that prevented them from being more active has been gotten rid of - but that doesn't mean that they are now more in control," argues Mr Idrissa.

Mr Moncrieff agrees that since the start of the year Mali's army has been taking "a much more front-foot approach and taken the fight to the jihadist groups", probably because they feel "emboldened by the support of Russian mercenaries and an influx of weapons - much of them from Moscow".

"The reports indicate that they've managed to secure some areas at least for some sustained periods and pushed jihadist groups out," he adds.

Mali denies the presence of Russian military contractors in the country, yet both parties are accused by rights groups of committing abuses and massacres of civilians, and Acled tells the BBC that violence against civilians has "skyrocketed" since Russian involvement began in December.

In many cases the civilians killed by Malian forces belong to the Fulani ethnic group, who they regard as the main social base from which the Islamists recruit, and sometimes civilians are targeted on simple suspicion of having collaborated with militants, analysts tell the BBC.

Mali, however, has consistently denied this.

IS and al-Qaeda's JNIM are both active in the Sahel region where they compete for power

In recent years as their influence has waned in the Middle East, the Islamic State group and al-Qaeda have increasingly focused their efforts on the Sahel.

They have exploited existing tensions in communities, says Mr Moncrieff, with "climate change and declining agricultural resource adding to that very violent mix".

"It's a vicious circle," he adds, with "people being excluded from their fields by insecurity, when that makes them more likely to join groups that are either jihadist in nature or simply criminal gangs who aim to steal cattle and so forth."

The spread of jihadist violence from northern to central Mali over the past seven years, and its emergence in Burkina Faso in the last two years, has implications elsewhere in West Africa.

"We also see it in the coastal states, especially Benin, and more recently Togo," says Mr Nsaibia.

"So far it's only really Ghana that has been untouched, so to speak, even though there are strong indications that militant groups are using Ghanaian territory as a place of rest and recuperation."
'A last resort'

Many people in Sahelian countries who are desperate for solutions do believe that military governments can handle insecurity better than democratically elected ones, but analysts warn that this popular support could soon sour.

"We're living through this now in Burkina Faso and in Mali," says Mr Sawadogo. "Any involvement of the army in political affairs worsens the nation's social and security situation... It's a last resort. Every coup in Burkina Faso has set back the country's progress."

"Acclaim fades when people become aware that the army in power have no greater leverage in peripheral areas than civilian governments," agrees Mr Moncrieff.

It is a view shared by Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum - who withstood a coup attempt days before his official swearing-in - as well as by Ghana's President and Ecowas leader Nana Akufo-Addo, who told the BBC in April that "the initial evidence doesn't point to the fact that Mali is doing anything better about the insecurity and the fight against the jihadists than the civilian government."

So how can Burkina Faso and Mali bring about lasting change?

"Better management and organisation of their security forces, and better management of the electoral processes in their countries," suggests ICG's Mr Moncrieff.

"The main lesson is that you need to have a plan - whether you are a military or a civilian power - because the civilian government also didn't have this," says political scientist Mr Idrissa.

Shows of military might, such as raids and crackdowns on armed groups, are ultimately not enough to establish the staying power of the state, he adds. For that you need a reformed state, able to keep control of its territory.

For now, the basic safety that military leaders had promised the people of Burkina Faso and Mali seems a long way off.

As Russia Vows Wagner Will Stay in Africa, U.N. Forces Prepare to Exit Mali

BY TOM O'CONNOR 

NEWSWEEK

ON 6/27/23 

United Nations Peacekeepers are preparing to withdraw from one of their largest missions just a day after Russia's top diplomat vowed the private military company Wagner Group would continue operations in Mali, even after the organization staged a mutiny against the Russian Defense Ministry over the weekend.

Relations between the Malian government and the 13,000-strong U.N. Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali have soured since Interim President Assimi Goïta took power in a May 2021 military coup. Last week, Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop called on the U.N. mission to exit the country "without delay," accusing it of "fueling community tensions exacerbated by extremely serious allegations which are highly detrimental to peace, reconciliation and national cohesion in Mali."

On Tuesday, Reuters reported that a draft U.N. Security Council resolution outlined a specific timeline for the MINUSMA exit, which would begin as soon as the end of this week, on June 30, one day short of its 10th anniversary.

Speaking to Newsweek, a U.N. Peacekeeping spokesperson said that, "subject to the decision of the Security Council, the United Nations is ready to work with the Malian authorities on an exit plan for MINUSMA."

The spokesperson explained that plans for such a departure were already being formed by U.N. Peacekeeping leadership.

"The Secretariat has begun internal discussions and planning for an orderly exit, identifying the multiple aspects and layers of such a massive and complex endeavor, while also simultaneously engaging Member States in this regard," the spokesperson said.

"Securing the constructive cooperation of the Malian authorities will be essential to facilitate the process," the spokesperson added.

Newsweek has reached out to the Malian Embassy in Washington, D.C. for comment.

Supporters of Malian Interim President Assimi Goïta wave the national flag of Russia during a pro-junta and pro-Russia rally in Bamako on May 13, 2022. After the exit of French troops involved in counterterrorism operations, the Goïta administration has withdrawn consent for U.N. Peacekeepers as well, all while bolstering ties with Moscow.

OUSMANE MAKAVELI/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

If carried out, the exit would mark the second major departure of foreign forces from Mali in recent years, after France withdrew its own personnel from a joint counterterrorism campaign in its former colony last year. That move was also marked by deteriorating ties between the Malian and French governments following back-to-back coups in 2020 and 2021 in Bamako.

In the meantime, however, Mali has bolstered its relationship with Russia and praised the work of the Wagner Group, despite Western allegations of human rights abuses committed by a group that the United States designated a transnational criminal organization in January.

But the Wagner Group has also elicited concerns within Russia itself after its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, called for a rebellion against Russian military leadership on Friday amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Accusing the Russian Defense Ministry of ordering strikes against Wagner Group positions in Ukraine, he mobilized the organization's fighters to conduct a brazen incursion within Russia, taking positions in Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh before abruptly halting an advance toward Moscow amid direct threats from President Vladimir Putin.

As questions continue to surround the fate of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, in comments made to the state-run RT outlet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attempted to dispel rumors on Monday that partners in Mali and the Central African Republic were in a state of "panic" over the recent events.

"The CAR and Mali are the countries whose respective governments officially requested the private military company to offer its services," Lavrov said. "This was at a time when the CAR and Mali had been abandoned by the French and other Europeans who withdrew their anti-terrorist contingents and closed down military bases that were supposed to sustain the fight against terrorism."

"At a time when they were left face to face with thugs, Bangui and Bamako asked Wagner PMC to provide security for their authorities," he added. "In addition to relations with this PMC, the governments of the CAR and Mali have official contacts with our leadership. At their request, several hundred military personnel are working in the CAR as instructors. This work will continue."

Washington, for its part, has expressed concern over MINUSMA's planned exit from Mali.

"The United States regrets the transition government of Mali's decision to revoke its consent for MINUSMA," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement last week.

"We are concerned about the effects this decision will have on the security and humanitarian crises impacting the Malian people," Miller added. "We will continue to work with our partners in West Africa to help them tackle the urgent security and governance challenges they face. We welcome further consultations with regional leaders on additional steps to promote stability and prevent conflict."

Miller said President Joe Biden's administration continued to support MINUSMA chief and U.N. Special Representative to the Secretary-General El-Ghassim Wane.

"MINUSMA's drawdown must be orderly and responsible, prioritizing the safety and security of peacekeepers and Malians," Miller said. "The transition government must also continue to adhere to all its commitments, including the transition to a democratically elected, civilian-led government by March 2024 and implementation of the Algiers Accord."

An attendee holds a placard translating into "MINUSMA GO AWAY" during Mali's Independence Day celebrations and a march against United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in Bamako on September 22, 2022. Mali is one of several African nations in which resentment is on the rise toward international troop presence while public sentiment embraces Russia's private military company Wagner Group.

OUSMANE MAKAVELI/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

MINUSMA has supported peace efforts in northern Mali, known to separatists as "Azawad," including the 2015 agreement between the government and a coalition of Tuareg-led rebels known as the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA). MINUSMA's roles have included monitoring the subsequent ceasefire, facilitating the extension of state authority and protecting civilians in urban centers from militant groups.

But political and security unrest has persisted in the West African nation, marking one of the deadliest spots for U.N. Peacekeepers, of whom 174 have died and more than 700 have been wounded over the past decade.

Like the other 11 active U.N. Peacekeeping missions, most of which are in Africa, MINUSMA's mandate is determined by the U.N. Security Council but also in effect requires the consent of the host nation.

Wagner's network in Africa faces uncertain future

Published

IMAGE SOURCE,AFP

By Nader Ibrahim & Beverly Ochieng

BBC World Service

The failed weekend mutiny in Russia by the Wagner mercenary group is likely to have repercussions for Africa, where it has several thousand fighters based as well as lucrative business interests.

It is unclear whether Wagner's leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has been told to relocate to Belarus, will still run his private army from there to allow it to service its security contracts in places like the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali.

On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov assured CAR and Mali of the status quo in terms of their crucial security arrangements.

Why is Wagner in Africa?

Primarily to make money - though as it had tacit approval from the Kremlin, it also bolstered Russia's diplomatic and economic interests.

It was a major boon for Russia, for example, when France withdrew its forces from Mali after Wagner agreed in 2021 to help the new military junta in its battle against Islamist militants.

Wagner has just posted a timeline of its operational history on Telegram, confirming its official involvement in Africa began in 2018 when it sent "military instructors" to the CAR and Sudan - and then moving into Libya the following year.

It has been noted that these countries have natural resources of interest to Prigozhin's outfit.

The CAR, which has been unstable for decades, is rich in diamonds, gold, oil and uranium.

Wagner has allowed President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, who even has the mercenaries as his bodyguards, to shrug off the influence of former colonial power France as the country tries to gain the upper hand against rebel groups - in return for a slice of the resource pie.

IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES

Image caption,

CAR's president was pictured on the campaign trail in December with suspected Wagner bodyguards

"Wagner's operational strategy over the past two to three years has been to expand both its military and economic footprint in Africa," Julia Stanyard, from the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, told the BBC.

The think tank analyst says Wagner has a network of companies associated with it - and they have pursued commercial activities in the countries in which the mercenary group operates.

In CAR these allegedly trade in conflict minerals and timber, as well as making beer and vodka.

Wagner's brief foray into Sudan allowed Russian mining firm M Invest, which the US Treasury alleges is owned or controlled by Prigozhin, to set up operations there. Its subsidiary, Meroe Gold, is one of Africa's biggest gold producers.

In Libya, Wagner is not thought to have the numbers of fighters in the country as it did when it backed renegade general Khalifa Haftar's attempt to take the capital, Tripoli, nearly four years ago.

But strategically, Libya creates a gateway for Russia into Africa, strengthens its presence in the Mediterranean and aligns with the Kremlin's backing of Gen Haftar. Wagner mercenaries still remain around key oil facilities in Haftar strongholds in the east and south of the country - and sources have told the BBC there has not been a noticeable change on the ground since Saturday.

Wagner's interest in Mali may be linked to its rich gold reserves - though there is no evidence as yet of its firms operating there - and it is likely to be more strategic, opening up Russia's sphere of influence in West African countries under pressure from so-called Islamic State and al-Qaeda groups.

Mali could also, according to the large batch of US military documents leaked earlier this year, have been used as a proxy to acquire weapons from Turkey on Wagner's behalf, with one Pentagon dispatch saying junta leader Col Assimi Goïta had confirmed it would do so.

What has Wagner's impact been on the ground?

Wagner fighters have been accused of widespread human rights abuses in several countries.

In 2021, a BBC investigation found evidence that implicated members of the group in Libya in the execution of civilians and the unlawful use of anti-personnel mines and booby traps in family homes around Tripoli.

In Mali, figures from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (Acled) show that militant violence more than doubled between 2021 and 2022, with civilians making up the highest number of casualties.

Operations by the army involving the Wagner group have led to higher civilian deaths. Among the worst incidents was the killing of some 500 civilians in a week-long operation in the central town of Moura. The UN linked "foreign forces" and the Malian army to the killings, while the US sanctioned two soldiers and the de facto commander of Wagner in Mali.

Earlier this year, the US Treasury accused the mercenaries of engaging in an ongoing pattern of serious criminal activity, including "mass executions, rape, child abductions, and physical abuse in the Central African Republic and Mali".

Though Wagner's success against a powerful rebel coalition in the CAR has entrenched public support there.

This fan base has been helped by local troll farms, run by Mr Prigozhin, with the intention of influencing debate in Africa and whipping up anti-Western sentiment.

For example, the Malian junta has just asked the UN peacekeeping force to leave the country - in line with a social media push to get the force replaced by Russian troops.

In May, Mr Prigozhin told the Cameroon-based Afrique Media TV, a station affiliated with him, that Wagner mercenaries were "more effective" than UN peacekeepers in Mali and the CAR.

What is the possible fallout for Africa?

Analysts say while Wagner has been incredibly useful for the Russian state in Africa, especially as it seeks diplomatic support amid the Ukraine conflict - the mercenary group could not be where it is without the Kremlin.

The two are so intertwined, unravelling them on the continent seems a perilous task.

It is clear in Libya, for example, that Wagner units have been relying heavily on support from the Russian defence ministry.

A UN diplomatic source and Wagner watcher has told the BBC that if the group were to be completely disbanded, its units in Africa would no longer be resupplied by the Russian authorities.

Meanwhile all their fighters in Africa are paid by a Prigozhin holding company, Lou Osborn from the All Eyes on Wagner Project, has told the BBC - an interesting point with regard to Mr Lavrov's recent assurances to the CAR and Mali.

The UN source says that if fighters are left unpaid, with no political or military support - they would essentially be out of job and up for hire in countries grappling with dangerous civil wars and insurgencies.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin has said Wagner fighters should join the regular army, go home or head for Belarus - but Ms Stanyard says it is unclear if this will be the case for the Russian soldiers of fortune in Africa.

The analyst suggests there may be "some sort of compromise position whereby Yevgeny Prigozhin, from his current exile in Belarus, will retain control and ultimate responsibility for the Wagner operations in Africa".

There are also big questions about what will become of the murky business operations in Africa linked to Wagner and Prigozhin.

Interestingly the African-based troll farms, which went silent during the mutiny on Saturday, have focused on the Kremlin's line since the Belarus deal was announced.

One called Mr Putin "the master of war" but did not go so far as to discredit his erstwhile ally Prigozhin - perhaps indicating the two may fudge a way forward together on Africa.