Natural disasters vs. Natural hazards: risk-mitigation public campaigns might need rewording

People would be more likely to act if they feel threatened by a hazard, rather than a disaster, concludes a new study from New Zealand

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THE POLISH ASSOCIATION OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY

 

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THE WRECKAGE OF A COLLAPSED BUILDING, DIYARBAKIR, TURKEY (2023).

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While people think similarly about natural hazards and natural disasters, they might act quite differently about each, concludes a study by New Zealand researchers:  Dr Lauren J. Vinnell (Massey University, Wellington), Professor Taciano L. Milfont (University of Waikato, Tauranga) and Emeritus Professor John McClure (Victoria University of Wellington), recently published in the open-access scholarly journal Social Psychological Bulletin.

Having surveyed 604 people in Wellington, New Zealand, the team concluded public communication, meant to encourage risk-reduction behaviour, should rather opt for the term natural hazard. While a hazard denotes a potential for negative consequences, a disaster implies that these negative consequences are inevitable, the researchers argue.

In recent years, there has been a debate about replacing the term natural disaster with an alternative that would better communicate the role of humans in the devastating impacts of natural events, for example, living near fault lines or overlooking building regulations. Previously, in a similar manner, global warming was replaced with climate change, which has reportedly led to wider belief and intentions to act.

Calling disasters natural puts the blame on nature and downplays the role of people's choices, the researchers explain. While some argue that we should simply drop the word natural and instead refer only to disasters, there is little evidence that the public actually interpret the term in this way. Instead, the team fears, the proposed solution would simply mix disasters such as earthquakes together with the likes of nuclear plant meltdowns, terrorism and pandemics. So, the team set out to explore whether it would make a difference if they talked to people about preparing for natural hazards instead of natural disasters.

As part of their study, the researchers measured key factors related to preparation, including social norms, beliefs about whether preparing is helpful, and perceived ability to undertake preparation actions. Interestingly, scores on these factors did not differ significantly when the people were asked about natural hazards and about natural disasters. Thus, the researchers concluded that the terms don’t have much, if any, impact on key perceptions.

However, when the team asked questions about factors related to one’s intentions to prepare - one of the best predictors of actual behaviour - they found a significant difference in the responses when they used natural hazards instead of natural disasters.

“Perhaps most importantly, we found that intentions to prepare for natural hazards predicted actual behaviour, but intentions to prepare for natural disasters didn't,”

say the researchers.

“In terms of the bigger picture, these mixed findings show that we need more evidence on how the general public understands the terms we use, and that it should be this evidence, which drives our word choices when we communicate,”

they add in conclusion.

To explain the rationale behind their research topic, the team reminds that,

“the impacts of disasters (triggered by natural hazards) have been increasing through a combination of population growth, rendering more people and property vulnerable in risk-prone areas, and an increase in the frequency and severity of high-impact weather events, particularly those driven by climate change.” 

“Every year, over $500 billion is lost from the global economy as a result, and between 1998 to 2017, over a billion people were impacted by disasters resulting from natural hazards, including over a million fatalities. It is therefore vital that we find the best ways to reduce this harm.”

 

Research article:

Vinnell, L. J., Milfont, T. L., & McClure, J. (2023). Natural Hazard Versus Natural Disaster: Does Framing the Event Affect Preparedness Intentions, Attitudes, and Behaviour?. Social Psychological Bulletin, 18, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.32872/spb.8357

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JOURNAL

Social Psychological Bulletin

DOI

10.32872/spb.8357 

ARTICLE TITLE

Natural Hazard Versus Natural Disaster: Does Framing the Event Affect Preparedness Intentions, Attitudes, and Behaviour?

Why managing Africa's natural disasters is taking on urgency

Kate Hairsine

May 4, 2024

Africa is particularly vulnerable to suffering natural disasters, such as floods, severe storms and droughts. These are not only crippling economies and people's livelihoods but also costing lives across the continent.

Kenya is the African nation country to be lashed by natural disasters

Image: Monicah Mwangi/REUTERS

After the worst drought in decades, East Africa is now being pounded by heavy rains. At least 180 people have died in floods and landslides in Kenya since the rainy season began in mid-March, with hundreds of thousands forced to leave their homes.

"The flooding in Kenya is absolutely out of control," reporter Andrew Wasike told DW's Africalink program. "The rains just won't stop. Whole villages across Kenya have just disappeared. And the worst part? Roads are gone, bridges are completely washed out, people are cut off. It's heartbreaking, and the forecast says this rain isn't going to let up anytime soon."

Tanzania and Somalia have also been hard hit by torrential rain and severe floods, displacing tens of thousands and inundating crop lands.

In contrast to that, southern Africa is suffering from prolonged dry spell at the same time, which has scorched crops during what is supposed to be the growing season, threatening food security.

These are only a few of the natural disasters currently clobbering the continent.

Kenya floods displace at least 190,000 people 03:34

Why is Africa so vulnerable to natural disasters?

The reasons for Africa's propensity to suffering natural hazards are complex but include the reduced capacity of governments and institutions to protect communities from and respond to disasters.

The vast majority of Africans are also dependent on rain-fed agriculture for their food, making them especially vulnerable to suffering the negative effects of flooding and drought.

Recurring disasters, which can wipe out crops and cause massive displacement, often leave poor nations picking up the pieces of one event when they are being slammed by another.

For instance, in 2023 Malawi was lashed by Cyclone Freddy, which dumped six months of rainfall in six days and triggered mudslides and floods across the nation, killing more than 1,000 people. But Freddy came hard on the heels of two prior cyclones in 2022.

In total, Malawi, which is still one of the world's poorest countries, has experienced 16 major flooding events, five storm-related disasters and two severe droughts since 2010, according to the World Bank.

"This has left almost no time for the country to recover and has resulted in a severe erosion of food security at the national level," finds the World Bank.

Why are natural disasters particularly hard on Africa?

Climate change meanwhile is increasing the frequency and severity of natural hazards on the continent, find numerous experts, including the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The likelihood of severe droughts, for instance, has increased 100-fold on the Horn of Africa. In southern Africa, the impacts of the El Nino climate phenomenon, which brings drier and warmer weather and low and erratic rainfall as well as floods, are becoming "more intense and prolonged" due to global warming, writes climate change expert Tadadzwanashe Mabhaudhi in a 2024 article for The Conversation.

Congo Basin: Africa's largest forest under threat  01:32

At the same time, man-made changes to both rural and urban environments are also worsening the effects of natural disasters.

"Some of these disasters are caused by environmental degradation, loss of wetlands, loss of forests, and so any little amount of rain that comes causes floods," climate change expert Sosten Chiotha, told DW.

Factors such as increased settlements, deforestation, livestock grazing and clearing for crops are dramatically altering the landscape in many rural areas, making it susceptible to the effects of erosion after severe weather events.

In urban areas, on the other hand, the unchecked expansion of many of Africa's cities is seeing people building shelters along rivers and on wetlands, destroying natural buffers for floodwaters. Informal settlements also fill in green spaces, resulting in a lack of drainage to carry away floodwaters.

Drainage systems clogged with plastic pollution, a reality in many African towns and cities, also add to the growing flood risk.

How will Nigeria implement its plastic ban?  02:50

What can Africa do to better prepare for natural disasters?

As with most issues, there is no single solution to address everything; however, certain approaches have come up repeatedly in public debates on Africa's levels of preparedness.

Improved evaluation of weather data is one way to be better prepared, says Chiotha, who is also the regional director for Southern and Eastern Africa at Regional Director at LEAD, a leadership non-profit.

"Let's enhance our monitoring and the collecting of long term data. Many of the disaster issues in Africa don't appear in the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] reports because basically there is very little data," he said.

Improving on early warning systems would also help people on a continent where more than half the population aren't covered by such a system.

The damage caused by a disaster can be reduced by nearly one-third if an early warning is issued within 24 hours, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Last year, the organization launched an initiative to try to give more Africans access to an early warning system about impending disasters.

Nature-based solutions, such as preserving forests and wetlands to reduce flooding, are also being hotly discussed.

"But for that to happen, you need to ensure that the services that people derive from these forests and from these wetlands [such as wood for energy or clearing for agriculture] can be found elsewhere somehow," said Chiotha.

Josephine Mahachi contributed to this article.

'Natural disasters' increase triggers for violence against women and girls

This must now be formally recognised in public health and disaster management strategies

BMJ

Research News

'Natural disasters,' sparked by climate change and other natural hazards, increase the triggers for violence against women and girls by boosting the means, opportunity, and underlying drivers, finds a review of the available evidence, published in the online journal BMJ Global Health.

As these disasters are increasing in frequency, severity, and duration worldwide, this consequence must now be formally recognised in public health, violence prevention, and disaster management strategies, urge the researchers.

Over the past two decades, 7348 disasters precipitated by natural hazards were recorded. This is nearly double the number recorded between 1980 and 1999. And between 2008 and 2017, most (84%) of all recorded disasters were related to climate issues.

The researchers base their conclusions on a systematic review of the available published evidence, looking at the association between disasters from natural hazards and violence against women and girls.

Of 37 relevant studies, 20 were quantitative, 16 qualitative (interviews;case studies) and 1 was a mixed-methods design. They assessed exposure to disasters caused by different natural hazard types, including droughts, floods, and hurricanes.

The violence was primarily physical, psychological and sexual. Some studies also looked at murder, controlling or aggressive behaviour, forced early marriage and financial violence.

More than a third (37%) of perpetrators were current or former partners, 15% relatives, 12% strangers, 11% authority figures, 8% friends/neighbours and 16.5% unspecified or other types of perpetrators.

Eight of the 20 quantitative studies found that natural disasters were associated with increased violence against women and girls, and four others found positive associations with particular types of violence.

Five found no association between natural disasters and violence against women and girls, but two commented on exceptionally high rates of this type of violence before the occurrence of a natural disaster.

But the researchers note that violence against women is often under reported, a factor that was evident in the qualitiative studies.

The 16 qualitative studies and the one mixed method study all described violence against women and girls in the wake of natural disasers.

Three main possible triggers emerged: an increase in stressors that spark violence, such as trauma, mental health issues, financial insecurity; an increase in enabling environments, such as absence of policing, health and support services, breakdown of family structures and social isolation; and a worsening of existing drivers, such as gender and social inequalities, lack of female representation and inclusion, etc.

The health consequences for women include unintended pregnancies, unsafe abortions, miscarriages, sexually transmitted infections, poor overall health for mothers and babies, physical injuries, mental health issues, and deaths from murder or suicide, note the researchers.

Although the first known global systematic review of the impact of natural disasters on women's and girls' risk of violence, the researchers acknowledge the lack of high quality, rigorously designed studies and the shortcomings of exposure and outcome measures used in the included studies.

"More high-quality research with greater geographical scope and use of standardised exposure and outcome measures is critical to generate further knowledge on the magnitude of the issue and mechanisms," they write.

"As populations are increasingly affected by climate-related disasters and [violence against women and girls] can have severe and lasting health impacts, existing knowledge must inform rapid action across policy and practice," they insist.

"At the policy level, greater awareness on disaster related [violence against women and girls], gender-sensitive [disaster relief] policies and inclusion of women in disaster management are critical.

"Further, systems for rapid and effective coordination between disaster management, law enforcement and health authorities must be defined clearly to prevent [this type of violence] and address its health consequences," they conclude.

###

Notes for editors

Research: Natural hazards, disasters and violence against women and girls: a global mixed-methods systematic review doi 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-004377

Journal: BMJ Global Health

Link to AMS labelling system http://press.psprings.co.uk/AMSlabels.pdf

New research examines why some firms prepare for natural disasters and others don't

Strategic Management Journal explores storm preparedness

STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT SOCIETY

Research News

 

Despite the increasing frequency and severity of floods, storms, wildfires and other natural hazards, some firms in disaster-prone areas prepare while others do not.

That issue was examined in a new study by Jennifer Oetzel, professor, American University and Chang Hoon Oh, William & Judy Docking Professor of Strategy, University of Kansas published in the Strategic Management Journal (SMJ).

"Due to the increased frequency and severity of floods, storms, epidemics, wildfires and other natural hazards anticipated over the coming decades (according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), there is growing pressure on managers and their firms to develop strategies for managing natural disaster risk," write the researchers.

"Preparing for future events that may never occur is challenging. Day-to-day events tend to crowd out long-term planning, but business continuity depends on managers anticipating and planning for large scale disasters. For these reasons, our goal in this study was to understand the antecedents associated with disaster preparation so that managers can better prepare for natural disasters."

They defined disaster preparedness as the acquisition of the skills and capabilities needed to reduce damage to a firm, to minimize disruption to the supply chain, and business activity more generally, and to save lives and protect employees.

Disaster preparedness can entail a wide variety of initiatives including conducting an assessment of firm vulnerability to natural disasters, establishing a natural disaster response plan, training employees about natural disaster preparedness, purchasing insurance, developing a business continuity plan, and arranging to move business operations temporarily to another location, among others.

Emergency preparedness pays off. A review conducted by the Wharton Risk Center that focused on floods suggested that for every dollar spent on flood risk reduction, on average, five dollars is saved through avoided and reduced losses. But despite the documented value of preparing, most firms fail to do so.

"Since not all firms located in disaster prone areas prepare for disasters, what are the antecedents to disaster preparation? To answer this question," write the authors, "we looked at several factors that are likely to affect whether or not businesses will prepare. The first factor is organizational experience with disaster, which can be a transformational and powerful motivator for change when managers see the value of disaster preparation and planning."

The mechanisms driving the relationship between experience and preparedness are multifaceted. Managers may fail to learn from past experiences if they do not consider a recently experienced disaster as representative of future events. Even when managers learn from experience and see preparation as valuable, they may lack the organizational influence and find that they are unable to leverage learning to inform decision-making.

Aside from experience, strategic decisions around disaster preparation are likely to be affected by managers' subjective judgments and/or knowledge about disaster risks. Depending upon the nature of their experience, managers may either over- or under-estimate disaster risk and thus over or under prepare.

Research has also shown that willingness to learn from other organizations about how to manage natural disaster risk is also important. External sources of information provide different perspectives and may help organizations to avoid internal biases in decision making.

"Another set of factors that are presumed to affect preparation are the characteristics of disasters, including their type, frequency, and impact," write the researchers. "Historical records and scientific data indicate whether or not a given location is subject to natural disasters and, if so, of what type.

"Natural scientists examining climate change trends are raising concerns, however, that past experiences may not be predictive of the future. In certain geographic areas (e.g., Houston, Texas), the frequency of major disasters may be increasing substantially, deviating significantly from the past."

In conducting two studies -- an international survey in 18 disaster-prone countries and a U.S. survey in New York City and Miami - Oetzel and Oh found that managers are more likely to prepare when their companies experienced prior disasters. The likelihood of preparedness is even higher when companies work with and learn from other organizations and stakeholders.

"Managers operating in locations characterized by high impact, low frequency disasters are more willing to learn from others," they wrote. "In contrast, managers in areas characterized by low impact, high frequency disasters, are more likely to prepare alone. Since effective disaster preparation typically entails working with, and learning from others, those companies that choose a go-it-alone strategy may misjudge disaster risk."

The SMJ is published by the Strategic Management Society (SMS), comprised of 3,000 academics, business practitioners, and consultants from 80 countries, focuses on the development and dissemination of insights on the strategic management process, as well as on fostering contacts and interchanges around the world.

###

Article available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/smj.3272

Insurance isn't enough: Governments need to do better on natural disaster resilience

Anne E. Kleffner, Professor, Risk Management and Insurance, University of Calgary

 and Mary Kelly, Chair in Insurance and Professor, Finance, Wilfrid Laurier University 

The massive floods in British Columbia in November 2021 demonstrated the devastation that natural disasters can cause in Canada. Prior to 2010, it was rare for annual insured losses from natural disasters in Canada to exceed $1 billion, but now insured losses of $3 billion are not uncommon.

© THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck 

A woman and children who were stranded by high water due to flooding are rescued by a volunteer operating a boat in Abbotsford, B.C., in November 2021. The Insurance Institute of Canada forecasts that annual insured losses from natural disasters could increase to $5 billion within the next 10 years.

Canada is expected to become wetter, stormier, warmer and to experience more severe connective storms and wildfires. The Insurance Institute of Canada forecasts that annual insured losses could increase to $5 billion within the next 10 years.

Private insurance plays an essential role in supporting the resiliency of communities by providing financial compensation for losses that aid in recovery. Insurance company Munich Re notes that, after accounting for per capita income, countries with greater insurance coverage are more resilient to natural disasters.

However, insurance works best protecting households and communities against idiosyncratic low-frequency, high-severity events. As extreme weather events become more common, relying on insurance alone to protect Canadians against severe weather is not sustainable. It is critical that an integrated and holistic approach to mitigate and manage losses from natural disasters is developed.

Communities and property owners need to be partners in reducing losses by undertaking mitigation activities to reduce the severity of wind, water and wildfire events. However, the largest role falls upon all levels of government to protect Canadians against the impact of catastrophic weather events.
Land-use planning and mitigation

To create more resilient communities, governments need to invest in mitigation, adaptation and risk-prevention activities. Climate change, expanded development and population growth have resulted in the need for updated risk assessments, especially up-to-date flood maps.

© THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looks over maps as he surveys the damage left behind from the flood waters in Abbotsford, B.C. in November 2021. Governments need to invest in risk-prevention activities to create communities that are more resilient to natural disasters.

In high-risk areas, future development must be prohibited, and governments should buy out existing properties. Better flood maps will enable governments to purchase high-risk properties before a devastating flood, and the land could be transformed to help minimize flooding in adjacent areas.

To withstand future extreme weather events, building codes and standards need to be revised. Whether it’s new construction of buildings or infrastructure, retrofitting property or repairing property after a loss, building codes need to be forward-looking.
Insurance and disaster financial assistance

After an extreme weather event, a province or territory may declare the event to be eligible for disaster assistance, with funding available from the province via Disaster Financial Assistance (DFA). DFA is available to property owners and communities for losses that are not covered by insurance companies — DFA does not pay for losses for which insurance is “reasonably and readily” available.

Prior to the flooding events in both Calgary and Toronto in 2013, Canadian homeowners could not buy insurance for overland water damage, but now most insurers offer some level of flood insurance, except in very high-risk areas.

This introduces inequity among homeowners — those who live in the highest risk areas cannot purchase insurance and therefore can receive DFA after a loss, but those living in moderate to high-risk areas where insurance is “reasonably and readily” available may not be able to afford coverage and therefore not be eligible to receive DFA.

© THE CANADIAN PRESS 

A woman gets back into her flooded car on Lakeshore Boulevard, Toronto in July 2013. The floods from that year resulted in insurance companies offering overland flood insurance, in addition to standard sewer backup policies.

Because the term “reasonably and readily” is not well-defined, ambiguity exists regarding who can receive DFA and who cannot. If the limitations around DFA are not fully understood by property owners, or if governments do not clearly define “reasonably and readily,” the incentive to purchase flood insurance is reduced.

Property owners need information regarding the value of purchasing flood insurance and insurers can provide important information about how to mitigate losses from flooding.

Furthermore, owners need to be counselled very carefully on the consequences of not purchasing flood coverage, and the provincial and territorial governments need to remain committed to not pay DFA for losses that could have been insured.
Private-public partnerships

The private insurance market, which has an important role to play in financing losses from natural disasters, has its limitations. The risks associated with some properties exceed the appetite of insurers and some perils have the potential to cause losses too large for the Canadian insurance market to cover.

To achieve sustainable flood insurance coverage, a public-private partnership is needed, whereby the government’s role is to support an insurance risk-sharing pool for high-risk properties that, otherwise, would not be able to purchase coverage. This will help reduce the reliance on DFA and provide information to homeowners regarding the risk they face.

© THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward 

A man walks through rising flood waters crossing into Canada from the United States in Abbotsford, B.C in November 2021.

Governments also have an important role in providing a safety net for very large losses. The industry guaranty fund, the Property and Casualty Insurance Compensation Corporation, has determined that a catastrophic loss exceeding $35 billion in insured losses would overwhelm the Canadian insurance industry and require government intervention. Such intervention could take the form of providing a layer of insurance coverage for catastrophic losses, or a liquidity or solvency backstop.

Ultimately, insurance and adaptation will not solve the problem of severe weather losses. We need to commit to sincere and strong action on climate change to reduce the frequency and severity of weather events. Some of the tools discussed here — insurance, strengthening building codes, effective mitigation and creating public private partnerships — can be leveraged to build a more resilient society.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Anne E. Kleffner receives funding from SSHRC, Alberta Finance.

Mary Kelly receives funding from SSHRC and is a director at Heartland Farm Mutual Insurance Company.

Disaster Capitalism in the Wake of COVID -19
February 2021
Authors:

Malini Balamayuran

University of Peradeniya


Download full-text PDF   Read full-text

References (47)

Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted and impacted people's lives profoundly all around the world. The United Nations has urged all governments to embrace a cooperative and human rights-based approach, when adapting measures to cure and curb the worldwide pandemic. A plethora of subsisting commentary presents the view that moments of crisis generally elongate a state of exception for capitalist corporations and businesses to grow and evolve widely. Particularly, the in-depth analysis of 'disaster capitalism' by Naomi Klein presents the view that any crisis situation is manipulated by the largest corporations and businesses to put in place a series of desired free-market policies that may otherwise have taken decades to take effect. This article primarily examines the ways in which the responses to the COVID-19 of the neo-liberal governments favor the capitalist corporations' agenda that were deferred or deprioritized in pre-pandemic times. Based on the primary and secondary sources, it has been found that neo-liberal governments have attempted to manipulate this current global health crisis to serve the way that automatically boosts higher profits for corporations and businesses. Therefore, this study concludes that the current global health pandemic has extended the agents of capitalism another perfect chance albeit at an immense human and environmental cost.

THE EFFECTS OF NATURAL DISASTER CAPITALISM ON INDUSTRY PROFIT 1 

How Could Home Improvement Corporations That Benefit From Natural Disasters Contribute More Sustainable Aid to Coastal Communities Most at Risk From Climate Change? 

Word Count: 4000

 Allende Miglietta 

THE EFFECTS OF NATURAL DISASTER CAPITALISM ON INDUSTRY PROFIT 2
May 2019

Project: How Could Home Improvement Corporations That Benefit From Natural Disasters Contribute More Sustainable Aid to Coastal Communities Most at Risk From Climate Change?

Authors:
Allende Miglietta

Kenwood Academy


Download full-text PDF   Read full-text

Abstract
With a newer theory of disaster capitalism on the rise, this research examines how home improvement corporations along the United States coast are taking advantage of major natural disasters with increased revenue from sales while raising prices on their goods in people's' greatest time of need. Communities along the coast would be less likely to accept the corporate intrusions under normal circumstances. Instead, this paper argues for home improvement corporations to contribute towards more sustainable aid to coastal communities most at risk from climate change. As greenhouse gases continue to be emitted into the atmosphere, more powerful natural disasters will continue to strike-especially with an increase in global warming. This raises the question: How could home improvement corporations that benefit from natural disasters contribute more sustainable aid to coastal communities most at risk from climate change? There is a gap in analyzing how to push home improvement corporations to contribute more sustainable aid, along with analyzing which communities might not survive rising ocean flooding. Within the topic of natural disaster capitalism, the most common methodology varies depending on the factors of the environment, the economy, and aid. The best approaches would be (1) for beneficiary corporations to minimize their carbon footprint; (2) for beneficiary corporations to come together and agree on ways to provide more sustainable aid to coastal communities most at risk after natural disasters; and (3) for local governments to pass legislation requiring benefiting corporations from disaster capitalism, or those contribute most to global warming, to increase sustainable aid. The aim of this research is to bring equitable and sustainable aid to coastal communities along the United States coast while examining how corporations must play a greater role in slowing or resolving global warming and climate change.

China's economic losses from natural disasters surge to billions, adding more pressure to struggling economy

By Jenny Cai with wires

China is suffering heavy economic loss from recent natural disasters due to severe weather. 

(AP: Ng Han Guan)

A magnitude 5.5 earthquake has struck eastern China as rain continued to pelt the north-eastern regions in the wake of Typhoon Doksuri, adding more pressure to the country's struggle to recover its economy from the COVID pandemic.

Key points:Analysis shows Chinese provinces occupy more than half of global top 50 list of states and provinces most at risk of climate-related disaster by 2050
A magnitude 5.5 earthquake struck eastern China as flooding continues in the north-eastern regions
The impact of floods, while common in China in summer, has grown more pronounced this year

China's direct economic losses from natural disasters surged to 41.18 billion yuan ($8.72billion) in July, more than in January to June combined.

The impact of floods, while common in China in summer, has grown more pronounced this year, affecting over 7 million people nationwide in July, when Beijing was struck by the worst rains in 140 years.

Meanwhile, scorching summer heat and drought are threatening crops in other regions after the capital's hottest June on record.

August, when rainfall usually peaks and temperatures soar, is set for further economic impact from floods and heatwaves.

Rainfall in north-eastern provinces could be as much as 50 per cent higher than normal in August, China's national forecaster have warned.

Shi Heling, an economic professor at Monash University, said impact of recent natural disasters had dealt a "huge blow" to China's economy.

 
Professor Shi Heling said recent natural disasters had significant negative impacts on China's economy recovery from the pandemic. (Supplied)

"China's governments at all levels are already running in deficits due to costs during the three years of COVID-zero policies that used up the governments' savings."

"The floods happened at the North China Plain, where there are lots of farmlands. The crops were submerged by the floods and will lead to shortage of many products."


"The disasters happened at a really bad timing. China's economy is going downwards currently, and natural disasters would have huge impacts on people's lives."

The economic losses posed an unexpected drag on quarterly growth in the world's second-largest economy, which is already in want of stimulus as Chinese officials just rolled out a series of policy measures in recent weeks to support the economy as its post-pandemic recovery falters.

Professor Shi said the authorities were also ill-prepared to deal with the flood and subsequent impacts, as the North China Plain were rarely hit by floods before.

Why China's economy isn't recovering fast enough

Australia is relying on its largest trading partner to bounce back, but China's youth unemployment figures and low consumer confidence are slowing down much-needed growth, suggesting a full recovery will take some time.

"Most floods usually hit the southern regions near the Yellow River and Chang Jiang River ... so another reason that the damages were so huge this time was that the local officials didn't know how to respond [to the floods]," he said.

Professor Shi added that the floods may also pose a negative impact on Australia's economy, which heavily relies on exports to China, its largest trading partner.

"Many Chinese consumers may not have the abilities to consume the imported products from Australia anymore.

"China imports a lot of iron ore from Australia for building infrastructure, the government may not be able to invest as much in infrastructure if the finance is tight," Professor Shi said.

July losses from Typhoon Talim, which landed in southern China in the middle of the month, were 2.61 billion yuan ($600 million), the Ministry of Emergency Management said in a statement late on Friday.

Losses from the more destructive Doksuri reached $3.15 billion as of the end of July, the ministry said.

According to an analysis by Sydney based research firm XDI, Chinese provinces occupy more than half of global top 50 list of states and provinces most at risk of climate-related disaster by 2050.

Two of China's largest economic powerhouses, Jiangsu and Shandong, would be the most vulnerable places in the world to climate risks, according to the research.

YOUTUBEchina economy video
Earthquake hits eastern China as flood continues

Twenty-one people were injured and 126 buildings collapsed after an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 struck the eastern Chinese province of Shandong on Sunday, state broadcaster CCTV reported.

The earthquake, 10km deep, jolted Pingyuan County of Dezhou City at 02:33am local time, according to the China Earthquake Networks Centre.

China Railway Group suspended some train operations on routes including the Beijing-Shanghai Railway and Beijing-Kowloon Railway in response to the earthquake, CCTV reported.

People gather on a street in Liaocheng, China's eastern Shandong province following an earthquake. (AFP/STR)

TV broadcasters showed Dezhou residents who ran outdoors after the quake sitting on sidewalks in the pre-dawn darkness. Video on social media showed bricks that had fallen from cracked walls.

Dezhou and the surrounding area administered by the city have about 5.6 million people, according to the city government website.

Authorities in northeastern China raised their emergency response level on Sunday as tributaries of the Songhua, a major river, rose to dangerous levels after days of heavy rain caused by Typhoon Doksuri

.
People stay on a roof at a flooded residential compound after the rains and floods brought by remnants of Typhoon Doksuri, in Zhuozhou, Hebei province.(Reuters: Tingshu Wang)

China's Ministry of Water Resources said it raised the response for flooding to Level III at 10am local time in Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Heilongjiang.

China uses a four-tier emergency response system, with Level I the most urgent.

Heilongjiang, known as China's "great northern granary", is among the latest areas to suffer the aftermath of Doksuri, which has killed at least 20 people, displaced thousands and flooded Beijing and several other cities since it made landfall in the south a week ago.

China on Sunday allocated an additional 350 million yuan ($74.13 million) to support rescues and house repairs in the flood-hit regions including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Heilongjiang and Jilin, according to a government statement.

The government had previously allocated $36 million for rescue and recovery work.

WATCH
Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds

Extreme flooding leaves at least 20 people dead in China
ABC/wires

Natural disasters mean record year for German insurance payouts

The year 2021 was the most expensive for natural disasters in Germany's recorded history, at least in terms of the insurance payout. It follows an international trend of worsening disasters.





Floods devastated Germany's Ahr Valley in June

German insurers paid out record sums in 2021 after high losses incurred by natural disasters, an industry group announced on Monday.

The cost of floods, storms and other disasters led to payouts of about €12.5 billion ($14.2 billion) for insured houses, household goods, businesses and motor vehicles, according to the German Insurance Association (GDV).

The bulk of that figure (€8.2 billion) came from the July floods that devastated areas of Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia and killed more than 180 people. The floods triggered a discussion about compulsory insurance for natural hazards, as well as restrictions on building in flood-prone areas.

Watch video12:31 Germany's flood-hit areas brace for winter

Severe hailstorms in June also caused millions of euros in damage, particularly to vehicles.

These made 2021 "the most expensive natural hazard year since statistics began in the early 1970s," GDV CEO Jörg Asmussen said.

The 2021 payouts even came ahead of 2002, when August floods and devastating storms contributed to an annual total of €11.3 billion in payouts.

According to the German insurance industry, the long-term average is €3.8 billion per year.

MASS DESTRUCTION AS FLOODS SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN GERMANY
Houses collapsed, people trapped on roofs
Heavy rainfalls and storms pounded Germany’s western states and caused rivers to burst their banks, inundating towns and villages. Torrential overflow swept away vehicles, destroyed roads and bridges and reduced some houses to rubble. Some survivors were trapped on their rooftops for hours before they were airlifted by helicopters.
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Climate change worsening disasters

Thanks to climate change, researchers expect losses from floods, hail or severe storms to increase in countries such as Germany in the coming years.

Insurance giant Swiss Re estimated earlier this month that natural disasters had caused $105 billion in damages globally, with hurricane Ida in the US costing $30-32 billion.

Also on Monday, UK charity Christian Aid estimated that the 10 most expensive weather disasters caused more than $170 billion in damages in 2021 — $20 billion more than in 2020.

In its annual assessment, it said the 10 events were worsened by man-made climate change and together killed at least 1,075 people and displaced 1.3 million.

The most expensive events included Hurricane Ida, flooding in Germany and Belgium (which it estimated at $43 billion in losses), winter storms in Texas, flooding in China's Henan province, flooding in Canada, late spring frosts in France and a cyclone in India and Bangladesh.

"The costs of climate change have been grave this year," said Kat Kramer, climate policy lead at Christian Aid.

aw/msh (dpa, AFP, Reuters, AP)

Climate-driven weather disasters inflicted billions in damage in 2021, study says

The roof of a nearby building is seen in a street in the French Quarter of New Orleans, La., on August 30 after Hurricane Ida.

 File Photo by A.J. Sisco/UPI | License Photo

Dec. 27 (UPI) -- Climate change-related weather events worldwide in 2021 caused billions of dollars in damage, according to an annual study by a British non-government organization published Monday.

In the report, titled "Counting the cost 2021: a year of climate breakdown," Christian Aid said that 10 weather events this year -- ranging from Hurricane Ida in the United States, flooding in Europe and Asia and droughts in Latin America -- killed more than 1,000 people and displaced about 1.3 million.

Hurricane Ida, the Category 4 storm that hit the Louisiana coast and later caused deadly tornadoes and flooding in the Northeast, caused $65 billion in damage along, according to the report.

Severe flooding in Europe, which killed more than 40 people in Germany in July, caused some $43 billion in losses.

The report said that China's Henan province saw $17.5 billion in damage from flooding and displaced more than one million residents.

Flooding is seen in Erftstadt-Blessem, Germany, on July 16 after major thunderstorms in the western German states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate.

 File Photo by Rhein-Erft-Kreis via EPA-EFE

The study noted that Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay saw the critical Parana River reach its lowest level in 77 years because of drought, which inflicted damage to the nations' economies.

"This is a powerful and important report. It is eye-opening to have these climate impact stories of 2021 collected together and the estimates for cost of lives, livelihoods and community, which is irreversibly altered when people are displaced," Heidi Steltzer, professor of environment, sustainability and biology at Fort Lewis College in Colorado, said in a statement.

"Climate change will bankrupt us, and along the way, we will lose so much more than money," added activist Rachel Mander, a member of the Young Christian Climate Network.

"To avoid this eventuality we need to take courageous action -- making sure that the burden of costs are distributed and do not worsen global inequality, while also making activities which drive climate change more expensive."

A man walks past a giant live oak tree that was blown over in the Mid-City area of New Orleans, La., during Hurricane Ida on August 31.

 File Photo by AJ Sisco/UPI | License Photo

 

Natural disaster preparations may aid businesses' pandemic response

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STANDARDS AND TECHNOLOGY (NIST)

Research News

 

The social and economic impacts of COVID-19 have battered small- and medium-sized enterprises, putting millions of jobs in the U.S. at risk. And a year rife with natural disasters has not done many struggling businesses any favors.

To learn about the strategies and experiences of businesses managing this double threat, researchers at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), surveyed small- and medium-sized enterprises across the country. In a new report of survey results, nearly a quarter of businesses felt natural disaster preparations helped them address COVID-19. They tended to find preparations of broad applicability during natural disasters, such as telework readiness, more useful than hazard-specific measures. The survey also identified areas of hardship for businesses, including uncertainty and a lack of guidance and resources.

"The survey results can help by drawing attention to how small- and medium-sized businesses are thriving or suffering and showing where natural disaster planning and preparation helped," said Ariela Zycherman, NOAA social scientist and co-author of the report. "The results will also help us identify places where there are needs and opportunities to build social and economic resilience to multiple types of disasters."

The NIST and NOAA researchers conducted the survey from July 8 to Aug. 8, reaching businesses with fewer than 10 to more than 100 employees from a wide array of industries, including construction, manufacturing and retail. With help from other entities, such as the Minority Business Development Agency and the Small Business Administration, the authors promoted the survey via email, newsletter and social media, obtaining more than 1,300 responses.

In the survey, the team asked businesses about challenges presented by COVID-19 and measures taken to manage them. The researchers also inquired about experiences with sudden, high-impact disasters, such as hurricanes, earthquakes and wildfires, as well as longer-lasting, slower-onset events, including droughts and winter storms.

Twenty-nine percent of respondents said they had experienced natural disasters since March 13, when the federal government declared the pandemic a national emergency. The researchers expect this figure would be much higher had the survey been distributed later, however, as events such as the wildfires along the West Coast surged after the survey closed.

Some 24% of survey respondents said experience preparing for natural disasters in the past helped them during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through the survey's open-ended responses, the researchers were able to glean insights into which types of preparation businesses found most beneficial.

Practices with broad applicability shone through over those specific to one kind of disaster. Two notable examples from the responses were having rainy-day funds for when income streams dry up and the ability to operate a business remotely, said Jennifer Helgeson, a NIST research economist and lead author of the report.

One respondent wrote, "We have dealt with many weather emergencies in the past as well [as] a bad flu pandemic, all of which prepared us for something like COVID-19, especially as it relates to teleworking. Our employees have been used to teleworking during emergencies."

Many businesses have not made a smooth transition, however. Smaller operations that rely on in-person customers, such as in the service industry, face a particularly grave threat in COVID-19, which has eaten away at customer bases for lengths of time these businesses were not prepared for.

The outlook for many of the surveyed businesses is currently worrisome, as 72% are concerned about heading into another distressing scenario on top of the pandemic. Almost a third of these businesses are wary of natural disasters specifically. A strong sense of uncertainty also looms over numerous businesses -- a sense that may be compounded by a lack of resources, a situation reported by 37% of respondents.

The researchers found that businesses are commonly struggling to obtain guidance on prioritizing their actions amid the strains of the pandemic, personal protective equipment, and training on how to receive support from financial institutions and lending personnel.

A large portion of businesses anticipate that they are in for the long haul before returning to pre-COVID operating capacity. While 39% said they believe recovery will take less than 18 months, 23% estimate the process will go on for longer. And nearly a fifth of respondents indicated full recovery as an unlikely outcome, no matter the time frame, with many indicating they are now considering early retirement.

The researchers plan to complement the data from this initial report by distributing another survey in the winter to both previously contacted and new businesses. With a second wave, the team plans to collect information about how businesses operating in a pandemic respond to events expected in the near future, including winter storms and the flu season, Helgeson said. Further study might also identify where and how businesses are currently receiving aid.

"I do think there will be more of a focus on understanding if there are certain attributes of the business, whether it be employee size or ownership demographics, that can correlate loosely with the kinds of support they've received or the places they're asking for support," Helgeson said. "Is it more about friends and family or is it more about small-business loans? And how might this change if they experience a natural disaster during the pandemic?"

For agencies and institutions committed to supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises for resilience planning and adaptation, the data from this and any subsequent reports could enhance strategies to reach vulnerable populations and deliver some certainty during a deeply uncertain time.

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View the report for more survey results. If you would like to participate in the second survey, please contact SMEResearch@nist.gov.

Researchers design tools to automatically detect natural disasters using images on social media

"We've demonstrated that it's possible to automatically detect incidents via social media such as Twitter, which could greatly help humanitarian aid organizations"

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITAT OBERTA DE CATALUNYA (UOC)

An international research team has designed a deep learning system able to detect natural disasters using images posted on social media. The researchers applied computer vision tools that, once trained using 1.7 million photographs, proved capable of analysing, filtering and detecting real disasters. One of the researchers on the project, led by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), was Àgata Lapedriza, leader of the AIWELL research group specialized in artificial intelligence for human well-being, attached to the eHealth Center, and a member of the Faculty of Computer Science, Multimedia and Telecommunications at the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC).

As global warming progresses, natural disasters such as floods, tornadoes and forest fires are ever more frequent and devastating. As there are still no tools to predict where or when such incidents will occur, it is vital that emergency services and international cooperation agencies can respond quickly and effectively to save lives. "Fortunately, technology can play a key role in these situations. Social media posts can be used as a low-latency data source to understand the progression and aftermath of a disaster," Lapedriza explained.

Previous research focused on analysing text posts, but this research, published in Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, went further. During a stay at the MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Lapedriza contributed to the development of a taxonomy of incidents and the database used to train deep learning models, and performed experiments to validate the technology.

The researchers created a list with 43 categories of incidents, including natural disasters (avalanches, sandstorms, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, droughts, etc.) as well as accidents involving some element of human intervention (plane crashes, construction accidents, etc.). This list, together with 49 place categories, enabled the researchers to label the images used to train the system.

The authors created a database, named Incidents1M, with 1,787,154 images that were then used to train the incident detection model. From among these images, 977,088 had at least one positive label linking them to one of the incident classifications, while 810,066 had class-negative labels. Meanwhile, for the place categories, 764,124 images had class-positive labels and 1,023,030 were class-negative.

 

Avoiding false positives

These negative labels meant the system could be trained to eliminate false positives; for example, a photograph of a fireplace does not mean the house is on fire, even though it has some visual similarities. Once the database was constructed, the team trained a model to detect incidents "based on a multi-task learning paradigm and employing a convolutional neural network (CNN)".

When the deep learning model had been trained to detect incidents in images, the team ran a range of experiments to test it, this time using a huge volume of images downloaded from social media, including Flickr and Twitter. "Our model was able to use these images to detect incidents and we checked that they did correspond to specific, recorded incidents, such as the 2015 earthquakes in Nepal and Chile," Lapedriza said.

Using real data, the authors demonstrated the potential of a tool based on deep learning for obtaining information from social media about natural disasters and incidents requiring humanitarian aid. "This will help humanitarian aid organizations to find out what's happening during disasters more effectively and improve the way humanitarian aid is managed when needed," she said.

Following this achievement, the next challenge could be, for example, to use the same images of floods, fires or other incidents to automatically determine the seriousness of incidents or even to monitor them more effectively over time. The authors also suggested that the scientific community could follow up the research by combining the analysis of images with that of the accompanying text, to enable more accurate classification.

 

This research promotes Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 3, Good Health and Well-being, and 10, Reduced Inequalities.

 

 

UOC R&I

The UOC's research and innovation (R&I) is helping overcome pressing challenges faced by global societies in the 21st century by studying interactions between technology and human & social sciences with a specific focus on the network society, e-learning and e-health.

Over 500 researchers and more than 50 research groups work in the UOC's seven faculties, its eLearning Research programme and its two research centres: the Internet Interdisciplinary Institute (IN3) and the eHealth Center (eHC).

The university also develops online learning innovations at its eLearning Innovation Center (eLinC), as well as UOC community entrepreneurship and knowledge transfer via the Hubbik platform.

Open knowledge and the goals of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development serve as strategic pillars for the UOC's teaching, research and innovation. More information: research.uoc.edu.

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JOURNAL

IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence

DOI

10.1109/TPAMI.2022.3191996