Dave Lawler
AXIOS
Thu, February 24, 2022
Vladimir Putin has launched an unprovoked ground war in a neighboring country after only the most perfunctory attempt to convince his own people, and with no groundswell of support behind him.
Why it matters: That’s a dangerous proposition for any leader, even an autocrat as entrenched as Putin. But while some experts believe high casualties or sanctions-induced economic distress could destabilize Putin’s regime, others contend that a quick victory would solidify his historic legacy in many Russians’ eyes.
Driving the news: Hundreds of protesters marched through central Moscow Thursday night chanting "no to war," while hundreds more gathered in St. Petersburg, all despite an explicit threat of arrest from the Interior Ministry.
Meanwhile, several celebrities, journalists and other public figures publicly criticized the invasion.
That stands in stark contrast to the 2014 annexation of Crimea, when the government actively mobilized mass shows of support for a highly popular operation.
This time around, there was "no big demand" for war, and Putin — with his eyes apparently fixed on history rather than public opinion — hardly tried to generate one, says Alexander Baunov of Carnegie Moscow.
Rather than patriotic fervor, Baunov sensed the slight "embarrassment" of Muscovites on Thursday morning as they withdrew cash from ATMs in case Russia is cut off from the global financial system.
Breaking it down: Most Russians were not expecting war on any scale, let alone a full-scale invasion, but a majority also accepts Putin's argument that the West has created the crisis, says Denis Volkov, director of Russia's last independent pollster, the Levada Center.
Just 7% blamed the tensions over Ukraine on the Russian government according to one recent poll, Volkov says. The belief in Western culpability among most Russians "will not be shaken," he adds.
Perceptions of Ukraine were also trending downward before the invasion, in a sign that the relentless coverage on state TV had an effect even as it generated a great deal of fatigue, Volkov says.
Now public opinion is in flux. "It will depend on how long it will be, how bloody it will be, what the response of the West will be," and whether there is some form of protest movement, he says.
What to watch: Most of the groups that have rallied past protests have been systematically dismantled over the past few years, most notably Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation.
During court proceedings Thursday that could add 15 years to his prison sentence, Navalny accused Putin of launching the war "to cover up the theft from Russian citizens and divert their attention" from internal problems.
Vladimir Ashurkov, the now-exiled executive director of Navalny's foundation, told reporters over dinner in Washington on Tuesday that the timing of the trial was no accident. "Unfortunately, this Ukrainian shitstorm is putting it into the shadows," he said.
Ashurkov conceded that if Russia effectively absorbs Ukraine with minimal casualties and economic fallout, it could bolster Putin internally. Many in the business and governing elite have grown very concerned by Putin's maneuvers, he added, but Putin has shown little interest in any opinion but his own.
The bottom line: "Putin is starting to get more isolated from modernity, from the present time, and thinking of himself as a historic figure, making not politics but history," Baunov says.
He is indeed making history, but the domestic fallout could yet pull him back into the present.
Go deeper: Ukraine-Russia crisis latest developments
Thu, February 24, 2022
Vladimir Putin has launched an unprovoked ground war in a neighboring country after only the most perfunctory attempt to convince his own people, and with no groundswell of support behind him.
Why it matters: That’s a dangerous proposition for any leader, even an autocrat as entrenched as Putin. But while some experts believe high casualties or sanctions-induced economic distress could destabilize Putin’s regime, others contend that a quick victory would solidify his historic legacy in many Russians’ eyes.
Driving the news: Hundreds of protesters marched through central Moscow Thursday night chanting "no to war," while hundreds more gathered in St. Petersburg, all despite an explicit threat of arrest from the Interior Ministry.
Meanwhile, several celebrities, journalists and other public figures publicly criticized the invasion.
That stands in stark contrast to the 2014 annexation of Crimea, when the government actively mobilized mass shows of support for a highly popular operation.
This time around, there was "no big demand" for war, and Putin — with his eyes apparently fixed on history rather than public opinion — hardly tried to generate one, says Alexander Baunov of Carnegie Moscow.
Rather than patriotic fervor, Baunov sensed the slight "embarrassment" of Muscovites on Thursday morning as they withdrew cash from ATMs in case Russia is cut off from the global financial system.
Breaking it down: Most Russians were not expecting war on any scale, let alone a full-scale invasion, but a majority also accepts Putin's argument that the West has created the crisis, says Denis Volkov, director of Russia's last independent pollster, the Levada Center.
Just 7% blamed the tensions over Ukraine on the Russian government according to one recent poll, Volkov says. The belief in Western culpability among most Russians "will not be shaken," he adds.
Perceptions of Ukraine were also trending downward before the invasion, in a sign that the relentless coverage on state TV had an effect even as it generated a great deal of fatigue, Volkov says.
Now public opinion is in flux. "It will depend on how long it will be, how bloody it will be, what the response of the West will be," and whether there is some form of protest movement, he says.
What to watch: Most of the groups that have rallied past protests have been systematically dismantled over the past few years, most notably Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation.
During court proceedings Thursday that could add 15 years to his prison sentence, Navalny accused Putin of launching the war "to cover up the theft from Russian citizens and divert their attention" from internal problems.
Vladimir Ashurkov, the now-exiled executive director of Navalny's foundation, told reporters over dinner in Washington on Tuesday that the timing of the trial was no accident. "Unfortunately, this Ukrainian shitstorm is putting it into the shadows," he said.
Ashurkov conceded that if Russia effectively absorbs Ukraine with minimal casualties and economic fallout, it could bolster Putin internally. Many in the business and governing elite have grown very concerned by Putin's maneuvers, he added, but Putin has shown little interest in any opinion but his own.
The bottom line: "Putin is starting to get more isolated from modernity, from the present time, and thinking of himself as a historic figure, making not politics but history," Baunov says.
He is indeed making history, but the domestic fallout could yet pull him back into the present.
Go deeper: Ukraine-Russia crisis latest developments
Ukraine: Media Groups Join Together For ‘United News’ & Urge World To Turn Off Russian Channels
Max Goldbart
Sat, February 26, 2022
Ukraine’s biggest media groups have united to broadcast one all-encompassing news service to cover the conflict, as they urge the world to impose “media sanctions” and turn off Russian channels.
In a statement in the past hour, 1+1 Media, StarLightMedia, Media Group Ukraine and Inter Media Group said they are now showing one newscast entitled United News, which is “promptly providing comprehensive information from different regions of the country.”
The media groups, the four largest in Ukraine, are taking it in turns to helm the show, which has been forged with the co-operation of the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Security and Defense Council, the Office of the President of Ukraine and other government bodies.
“It is extremely important that people around the world have access to reliable and truthful information relating to the Russia’s war against Ukraine and the course of hostilities here,” said the statement.
With that in mind, the media groups urged the world to impose “media sanctions” and “turn off the broadcasting of Russian news channels on European satellites.”
“We have been waging an information war for years, and such media sanctions are globally important to Ukraine,” it added. “We understand how powerful the Russian propaganda machine is and what kind of effort the aggressor makes to spread fake news to cynically fool people. We absolutely oppose this.”
When the conflict started in earnest Thursday some Ukrainian channels were still showing entertainment programs but Deadline reported yesterday on a pivot to back-to-back news, with commercial advertising turned off. Ukrainian news bosses have reported through-the-roof TV news ratings in recent weeks and all media groups have enacted contingency plans in order to keep broadcasting.
The statement in full
On behalf of Ukrainian media groups – 1+1 media, StarLightMedia, Media Group Ukraine and Inter Media Group in cooperation with the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy, we would like to express our honour and to address you with the following matter.
It is extremely important that people around the world have access to reliable and truthful information relating to the Russia’s war against Ukraine and the course of hostilities here. We understand how powerful the Russian propaganda machine is and what kind of effort the aggressor makes to spread fake news to cynically fool people. We absolutely oppose this!
As of 26 February, the channels of all Ukrainian media groups named above are broadcasting in the format of a single newscast named the United News. The media groups are taking turns in providing uninterrupted information. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Security and Defense Council, the Office of the President of Ukraine and other government bodies, on which the course of events depends, have joined the broadcasting. We objectively and promptly provide comprehensive information from different regions of the country 24/7. We are ready to provide TV providers with our signal, and thus, ask you to help spread this information.
We also suggest to our partners to turn off all Russian news channels so that Russia’s outright propaganda does not go beyond Russia itself. In particular, we ask to block, turn off the broadcasting of these channels on European satellites.
We have been waging an information war for years, and such media sanctions are globally important to Ukraine.
Now it is extremely important that people know the truth and understand the real course of events in Ukraine!
The technical parameters for broadcasting are as follows: satellite Astra 4A at 4.8°E, transponder 12 130 (B22), polarization vertical, frequency 27500, FEC ¾.
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