Murray Mandryk: Moe may swerve further right as NDP sputters in rural mudhole

Opinion by Murray Mandryk • 6h ago

Before anyone from either side gets too carried away with the Insightrix Research poll perhaps suggesting NDP gains in Saskatchewan, consider a few important realities.


A new Insightrix survey may or may not be great news for the NDP and Carla Beck. But it may. be reason for Premier Scott Moe to further appease the right.© Provided by Leader Post

All polls are the day’s snapshot, and online panelist surveys with questionable methodology stemming from a partisan podcast are likely of even less value.

Insightrix’s April 11-13 survey was promoted in a news release last week by the Skoop podcast hosted by former Saskatchewan Party digital operations director for Premier Scott Moe’s office, Dale Richardson, who is now a consultant and podcaster.

Nevertheless, we always take notice of the ‘who-would-you-vote-for?’ horse race question — especially when it’s seemingly telling us the Sask. Party is down to 46 per cent across the province (compared with 60.7 per cent in the 2020 election) and that the NDP under new Leader Carla Beck is at 37 per cent (compared with 31.8 per cent).

Other numbers suggesting the NDP at 56 per cent in Regina and 48 per cent in Saskatoon would translate into more NDP MLAs from the 26 “city seats” that will still exist under the electoral boundaries map.

That’s good news for an Opposition with two upcoming Regina byelectons , but it offers no insight into the new battleground bedroom community seats outside the two major cities and/or what might happen in Moose Jaw and Prince Albert, or even Yorkton and North Battleford.

Arguably more telling is that the Sask. Party is still at 56 per cent outside the two biggest cities, compared with 25 per cent for the NDP.

Beck spent the summer touring the rural s and has made rural health care one of her priorities. Yet the NDP leader doesn’t seem to be moving the needle her way much in rural Saskatchewan.

Again, one needs to be rather careful here because the survey numbers remain rather dubious. But what’s happening with the fringe parties — especially in rural Saskatchewan — may be the most interesting thing about this survey.

Insightrix pegs both the Saskatchewan United Party and the Green Party at just two per cent (about where the Greens were in 2020), and both the Buffalo Party and the Liberals are at about three per cent (which, for the Liberals, would be about 12 times better than the did in 2020, even though a Saskatchewan “Liberal” party may not exist much longer).

Far more surprising is the struggling old Progressive Conservative Party at a surprising six per cent — more than three times its 2020 popular vote. (As suggested by Richardson, it’s quite likely voters were confusing the old PCs with the federal party.)

The Sask. Party partisans on the podcast rightly noted Sask. United’s two per cent showing is hardly impressive.

However, given that Sask. United is at zero in Regina and likely near the same in Saskatoon, you can likely double that number in rural ridings. Now, add to that support for the Buffalo Party and the rather bizarre numbers for the old PCs.

Of course, even all this combined would still not be enough to topple rural Sask. Party MLAs who won their seats in 2020 with 60 to 75 per cent of the popular vote, when you seldom need much more than 45 per cent to win in our first-past-the-post system with multiple candidates.

What it might accomplish, however, is pushing the ever-skittish Sask. Party even further to the right in the year and a half before the next vote in 2024.

Obviously, that would seem counterintuitive, given that all this would seem to suggest both the political threat and the real economic problems for Moe and his Sask. Party government are coming from the left and the cities.

But since 2020 election night, when Moe simply ignored NDP voters and spoke directly to the concerns of Buffalo Party supporters , appeasing the right has been the Sask. Party’s near obsession.

Maybe the Insightrix survey, itself, doesn’t tell us much about the political landscape.

But it might become rather telling when it’s combined with the great predictor of future behaviour: past behaviour.

Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.