Demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is slowing for average Canadians, but new data suggests businesses should seriously consider changing their fleet.

A new report from Canadian telematics firm Geotab examined data from more than 750,000 light-duty commercial vehicles in North America and Europe and found 41 per cent of their internal combustion engines (ICE) were considered cost-effective and range capable of an EV transition, which would provide an average savings of $16,000 per vehicle over seven years.

Overall, the report found 75 per cent of analyzed light-duty ICE vehicles could be replaced with an EV today, without infrastructure upgrades or charging improvements, while 81 per cent of medium-duty ICE vehicles and 58 per cent of heavy-duty trucks have daily usage within the range of commercial EVs currently on the market.

“These analyses have shown that many fleet applications and fleet duty cycles could be fulfilled by an EV, reinforcing our belief that EVs are key to unlocking sustainable fleet operations today,” Charlotte Argue, Geotab’s senior manager of sustainable mobility, said in a news release.

“We have uncovered a roadmap for fleet electrification that aligns with sustainability objectives, and presents a compelling case for a zero-emission transition.”

On top of the business case for transitioning to a commercial EV, there’s also the environmental case. Geotab suggests it could save 8.3 million litres of fuel and 19 million metric tons of CO2 emissions from entering the atmosphere over the next seven years if every cost-effective light-duty ICE vehicle was transitioned to an EV.

“The opportunities for fleets to electrify will continue to grow with better data insights spotlighting challenges and solutions to accelerating adoption, ultimately improving outcomes for business and the planet,” Eric Mallia, Geotab’s vice president of sustainability solutions, said in the release.

Personal EV demand falling

Geotab’s report comes as demand for EVs among the Canadian population is sliding.

A recent report from AutoTrader, released earlier this week, found just 46 per cent of Canadians are interested in buying an EV as their next vehicle, despite new EV prices falling nearly 18 per cent year-over-year in 2024.

The report found interest in purchasing EVs is down from 56 per cent in 2023 and 68 per cent in 2022.

This comes as supply chain issues that have plagued the EV industry are easing, with inventory levels up 145 per cent year-over-year and overall growth in new EVs up 522 per cent.

Politics also appear to be playing a role in Canadians’ loss of interest, as 75 per cent of respondents said they’re skeptical of Canada’s zero-emissions goals and 60 per cent believe the country’s goals could change if the Liberals lose the next election. 

Methodology

Geotab analyzed the driving patterns of light-duty ICE vehicles driven in North America and Europe over one year. The study assumed that vehicles were in service for seven years, unless stated otherwise, and were purchased, not leased.

For an EV to be considered EV suitable, it needed to be considered range capable and have a total cost of ownership that was equal to or lower than that of a comparable new ICE vehicle replacement. Total cost of ownership includes the local cost of procurement and maintenance as well as the local fuel and energy costs as of July 2023, but excludes resale value.

Estimated avoided emissions are solely tailpipe emissions and do not account for emissions generated through energy production or vehicle manufacturing. Emissions calculations are based on the emissions factor of 2.29 kg of CO2 per litre of gas.

The study analyzed driving and dwell behaviours of medium-duty and heavy-duty internal combustion engine trucks, excluding buses. The analysis considered all trips and dwells, aggregated by day based on local time, to identify the distance travelled and cumulative time stopped.

AutoTrader’s data was collected via an online survey conducted nationwide in French and English. The survey was deployed from Feb. 9 - March 11, 2024. The online survey took a total of seven minutes to complete. Where relevant, the findings also include insights from AutoTrader’s marketplace data.