A Chinese vessel has sparked major interest after it was tracked travelling near the two internet cables that were mysteriously severed on the bottom of the Baltic Sea in recent days. While it remains unclear whether the incidents were accidental or intentional, experts say that the notion that China would support its ally Russia by conducting hybrid war operations in this part of the world would be more than surprising.
Issued on: 21/11/2024 -
By: Sébastian SEIBT
Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 sails under the Great Belt bridge, in Korsor, Denmark, November 19, 2024. © Yoruk Isik, Reuters
On Sunday, at around 10am local time, a fibre-optic undersea cable connecting Sweden and Lithuania was cut. Just hours later, at around 4am local time the next day, a second cable linking two more NATO countries – this time Finland and Germany – was damaged.
The countries affected by the disruptions were quick to react, with Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius even going so far as to say that “nobody believes” that the incident was “accidental”.
"We have to conclude, without knowing exactly who did it, that it is a hybrid action and we also have to assume – without knowing it – that it is sabotage," he told reporters in Brussels Tuesday, without providing any proof for his claims.
Almost immediately, the four countries launched investigations into the suspicious cable cuts, and attention soon turned to the vessels that had been navigating in the area. One of them drew particular interest: the Chinese-flagged Yi Peng 3.
According to satellite tracking data, the cargo ship, which had been en route from Saint Petersburg to Cairo, had travelled along the C-Lion1 cable (connecting Finland and Germany) in an almost perfect line when it was cut. The vessel then changed course, sailing near the BCS cable (connecting Sweden and Lithuania) when that cable was disrupted.
On Sunday, at around 10am local time, a fibre-optic undersea cable connecting Sweden and Lithuania was cut. Just hours later, at around 4am local time the next day, a second cable linking two more NATO countries – this time Finland and Germany – was damaged.
The countries affected by the disruptions were quick to react, with Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius even going so far as to say that “nobody believes” that the incident was “accidental”.
"We have to conclude, without knowing exactly who did it, that it is a hybrid action and we also have to assume – without knowing it – that it is sabotage," he told reporters in Brussels Tuesday, without providing any proof for his claims.
Almost immediately, the four countries launched investigations into the suspicious cable cuts, and attention soon turned to the vessels that had been navigating in the area. One of them drew particular interest: the Chinese-flagged Yi Peng 3.
According to satellite tracking data, the cargo ship, which had been en route from Saint Petersburg to Cairo, had travelled along the C-Lion1 cable (connecting Finland and Germany) in an almost perfect line when it was cut. The vessel then changed course, sailing near the BCS cable (connecting Sweden and Lithuania) when that cable was disrupted.
On Wednesday, Denmark’s Armed Forces announced they had sent out ships and were “present in the area near Yi Peng 3”, which appeared to have come to a stand-still shortly after exiting the Oresund strait separating Sweden and Denmark. The military did not provide more details about its operation.
"The Danish Navy is probably questioning the cruiser and is puzzled about how to further proceed," Christian Bueger, a specialist in maritime security at the University of Copenhagen, said, but noted there is no evidence to incriminate the Chinese vessel so far.
“What we know for sure is that two cables were cut. What we don't know for sure is who did it and why. But obviously the Chinese vessel is now under suspicion. And if the shipping data is correct, the Danes have stopped it still in international waters," he said.
Dangerous accusations
Bueger said that he had found the German defence minister’s comment about “sabotage”, and his indirect suggestion that Russia was likely behind the incident, both surprising and premature.
“It limits their action space [for diplomatic manouvre],” he said, adding that since a Chinese – and not a Russian – ship has since become the prime focus in the probes, “the German defence minister is basically accusing China of committing an act of sabotage on German infrastructure”.
According to the Financial Times, the Yi Peng 3 was built in 2001 and purchased by the Chinese shipping company Ningbo Yipeng Shipping Co in 2016. When contacted by the British newspaper, a Ningbo Yipeng representative said the Chinese government had “asked the company to co-operate with the investigation”, but did not answer further questions and then hung up the phone.
This would not be the first time China is involved in an incident in the Baltic Sea, however. Last year, the Hong Kong-flagged but Chinese-owned Newnew Polar Bear damaged the so-called Balticconnector, the undersea gas pipeline that connects Estonia and Finland. Just two months later, Beijing admitted that its ship had been at fault, but concluded in an internal investigation that it had been an accident.
Shashank Joshi, a defence editor at the Economist, reported at the time that the Newnew Polar Bear had quite a few Russian links, including both its ownership and the crew that had been aboard when the incident occurred.
Very little is yet known about the staff aboard the Yi Peng 3, but German tabloid Bild on Wednesday reported that the captain has Russian nationality. The newspaper did not give a source for its claim.
Bueger said that although China is no stranger to conducting hybrid sea operations at home, he would find it “super surprising” if it would do so in European waters.
Since Russia launched its large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and NATO has expanded to include also Finland and Sweden, Moscow has more or less openly reserved for itself the right to conduct these types of operations against anyone it deems supporting Kyiv.
But, Bueger said, if Beijing were to do the same on European turf “it would be a really, really surprising act of provocation, and it's unheard of”.
The Baltic Sea: Already a hybrid warfare battleground
Such an involvement would also mark a major escalation in Baltic Sea tensions in general. In 2022, the Baltic Sea was the scene for sabotage operations targeting the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, and an underwater cable linking the Faroe Islands to the internet. In the past two years, several GPS jamming operations have also been conducted over its waters.
Basil Germond, a specialist in international and maritime security at Lancaster University, said that the reason the Baltic Sea has become such a battleground for hybrid war is because it “is a vast, uninhabitable, liquid domain, so it is hard to monitor and control, and thus it is hard to identify suspicious behaviours and prevent malign activities”.
Bueger added that in that context, undersea internet cables have become particularly easy targets.
“Cutting cables is very easy to do and it doesn't cost much," he said. "But the consequences of them are tremendous because it means we need to invest a lot of money and energy to try to protect our infrastructures better.”
He did not think it would have any greater impact on the affected countries’ internet access though.
“It will not slow down the internet anywhere, because in Europe at least, we have quite a lot of redundancy," he said. "So the data just gets rerouted to other cables. No big deal."
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Instead, the two experts said that if the cable cuts prove to have been intentional, they would likely have acted as “trial balloons” to test Europe’s preparedness. Since the 2022 explosions targeting the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, European authorities have worked to strengthen their cooperation against hybrid warfare operations in the region, and have, among other things, imposed sanctions against anyone involved in such activities.
Germond said that the swift response, by in particular the Danish authorities, bodes well for the future.
“[It] demonstrates the limits of hybrid warfare and also that we are ramping up our ability to respond in a timely manner to such incidents, which is crucial to deter malign actors in the future by making it more difficult for them to deny responsibilities,” he said.
This article was adapted from the original in French by Louise Nordstrom.
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