Serbia Resists US-led Bullying

BY GREGORY ELICH
MAY 24, 2022


National Assembly of Serbia. Photograph Source: Boris Dimitrov – CC BY-SA 3.0

Little more than half a year has passed since Belgrade hosted the Non-Aligned Summit on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the movement’s founding, and Serbia is increasingly under fire for upholding the organization’s principles.

Russia’s ill-considered invasion of Ukraine has provided US imperialism with the opportunity of a lifetime, supercharging NATO and US military expansion and transforming the conflict into a proxy war. By sending arms to Ukraine and urging it on to total victory rather than a negotiated settlement, the hope in Washington is that the war can be prolonged. The expectation is that sanctions would then have enough time to bring about the collapse of Russia, which would advance the project of isolating the People’s Republic of China.

Washington is in no mood to countenance neutrality, and no effort is spared to persuade or bully other nations into imposing sanctions on Russia. While the US has met with limited success in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, Europe is a different matter, where only one nation maintains a neutral stance – Serbia.

Serbia voted in favor of the UN resolution deploring the Russian invasion of Ukraine and calling for the unconditional withdrawal of forces. It also supported the UN resolution on the humanitarian consequences of the war and is donating €3 million to aid Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced persons. [1]

Serbia planned, however, to abstain in the vote to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council. Before the vote was scheduled, Western officials met with Serbian Foreign Minister Nikola Selaković, warning him that Serbia faced punishment unless it joined the West in expelling Russia. Russia’s Gazprom is a majority shareholder in the Petroleum Industry of Serbia. That relationship provided the EU with a decisive leverage point to get its way. Serbia is wholly dependent on Russia for its oil supply, and the earliest possible avenue for diversification is two years away if a planned pipeline from Bulgaria meets its target date. [2] It was pointed out that the EU would be meeting on the day of the UN vote to decide whether or not to allow Serbia to import Russian oil, which has to pass through EU territory. Selaković was told that unless Serbia voted against Russia, it risked a complete cutoff of its supply of crude oil. Furthermore, he was cautioned that Serbia’s path to joining the EU would be blocked, and Western investments would be withdrawn. The EU’s vote on Serbia’s oil supply was initially scheduled for 4:00 PM on the day of the UN vote but was delayed by two hours to see how Serbia voted before the EU would make its decision. Russia made calls to Serbia, too, although no threats were made. [3] After Serbia switched its vote to comply with the EU’s position, the EU granted it an exemption to import Russian oil. [4]

However, Serbia is drawing a firm line in its refusal to sanction Russia. Economic sanctions are a form of siege warfare in which collective punishment is visited upon an entire population. For Serbia to impose sanctions is to join someone else’s war, an action incompatible with its non-aligned status. Serbia knows well the harm done by sanctions, based on the economic ruin it experienced when it was the target of sanctions during the 1990s. It is easy for those in the West to dismiss or ignore the reality of sanctions. No one who has lived through sanctions can do the same. As one Serbian political analyst noted, “Sanctions are an instrument of war; they are often more devastating than bombs, and Serbia is not at war with Russia.” [5]

Coercive economic sanctions unilaterally imposed by states can be regarded as contravening international law in their impact on the human rights of targeted populations, including denial of food, medical care, employment, and even life itself. Sanctions are, of course, the first tool of choice for Western nations.

“People talk about choosing sides. No, we have our own side, Serbia’s side,” Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić asserts. “We were bombed by 19 NATO countries and sanctioned. We haven’t imposed sanctions against anyone…because we don’t believe sanctions change anything. You can pressure and force Serbia, but that is our genuine opinion.” [6]

Aleksandar Vučić had a more personal experience with Western respect for international law when he was targeted for assassination in 1999. One night after the United States dropped three laser-guided bombs onto the home of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milošević in a failed attempt to murder him and his wife, [7] it next tried to kill Vučić, who was information minister at the time. Vučić received a fax from CNN inviting him to a live broadcast interview. CNN asked him to arrive for makeup at Radio Television Serbia in Belgrade at 2:00 AM sharp for a program scheduled for half an hour later. At 2:06 AM, NATO missiles pulverized the building, killing 16 people. The first missile struck the makeup room, where NATO expected Vučić to be. Luckily for Vučić, he was running behind schedule and arrived after the attack. [8]

Washington was again disappointed in its hope to see Vučić removed from the scene when he trounced his conservative opponent in this year’s presidential election. That leaves US and EU officials with only their arsenal of bullying tactics. Every day, Western diplomats contact Serbian officials, relentlessly pushing their demands. According to an unnamed Serbian source, “Serbia is threatened with diplomatic channels by withdrawing all investments from Serbia, even sanctions in the banking sector, and some European countries go so far as to mention removing Serbia from the Schengen list,” [9] which allows citizens visa-free entry to EU nations.

Western officials dispense with diplomatic niceties when delivering their threats. “You cannot understand the scale of the rudeness of those who threaten this country,” Vučić observed, “and the bottom line is that they want to break Serbia’s freedom spirit and ability to make decisions on its own.” [10]

Last month, in talks characterized as “difficult,” a delegation of US senators visited Belgrade in a failed attempt to persuade Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia. The senators also complained about Serbia’s purchase of a Chinese FK-3 surface-to-air defense system.[11] If the US expected this high-powered delegation to bend Serbia to its will, it was sorely disappointed.

Talk is not the only means of bullying available to the West. Air Serbia is the only European airline company with active routes to Russia, a fact that has not gone unnoticed. Over two days in a row last month, NATO warplanes closely followed Air Serbia flights coming from Moscow, the second of which tracked the airliner inside Russian airspace. It was a clear attempt at intimidation, prompting Vučić to announce that his government would “request information from NATO to see who was trying to be the smart guy and with what fighter planes they were endangering civil aviation and civilians on a flight…” [12]

Most of Serbia’s trade is with European nations, so it aspires to join the EU. During the decade that it has been a candidate, Serbia has been asked to clear one hurdle after another as it chases a moving target. The main sticking point is the insistence by EU and US officials on Serbia agreeing to the independence of Kosovo, its province that was ripped away through NATO violence. No politician in Serbia could be elected as president who would agree to the violation of the nation’s territorial integrity, and that creates an insurmountable impasse on advancing to EU membership. “As sweetly as you are now talking about the territorial integrity of [Bosnia-Herzegovina] and Ukraine,” Vučić recently responded to an unsympathetic German reporter, “why didn’t you say so in 1999 about Serbia? When it comes to territorial integrity, I would ask you to step into our shoes. In 1999, no one was interested in Serbia’s territorial integrity.”[13]

Despite the challenges in attaining EU membership, Vučić argues that economic factors necessitate that “our strategic path is the path to Europe,” and Serbia has no alternative. [14] How that goal can be achieved in the face of Western intransigence is another question. For many in Serbia, weary of Western threats and overweening demands, the concept of joining the EU is beginning to curdle. Unrelenting demands, pressure, and blackmail have taken a toll, and for the first time, a poll of Serbian citizens showed a majority are opposed to membership. [15]

Certainly, Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin, founder of the Movement of Socialists, a coalition partner with Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party, has started to sour on EU membership. Vulin regards the demand for sanctions as a clear signal “that the EU does not want Serbia” and adds, “They measure our love for Europe with hatred of Russia…I don’t want to hate anyone.” [16] Vulin believes that for Western leaders, “it is more important for Russia to be defeated than to achieve peace in Ukraine.” Serbia, he says, does not want to play that game. “The countries that bombed us, I would not say that they have the moral right to ask us to join their own policy.” [17]

It is also apparent that the benefits of EU membership do not apply equally to all, as Zoran Milanović, president of neighboring Croatia, pointed out recently regarding his nation’s place in the union. “We give a lot. We win a little bit. Some things cross all borders, how they treat us and small nations.” [18]

Serbia’s strong economic relationships with China and Russia have long rankled Western leaders, who have never ceased trying to disrupt them. However, it is not in Serbia’s interests to bend to US and EU dictates. Russian and especially Chinese firms have played an instrumental role in Serbia’s ambitious infrastructure improvement project. Furthermore, China and Russia offer the most robust support Serbia can rely on in the United Nations to counter US attempts to formalize its violent theft of the province of Kosovo.

Western officials are unrelenting in demanding that Serbia consent to Kosovo’s independence. Last year, US President Joe Biden sent an insulting “congratulatory” message to Vučić on Serbia’s Statehood Day holiday. Biden encouraged Vučić to “take the hard steps” toward EU membership, including “instituting necessary reforms” and “mutual recognition” with Kosovo. [19] Earlier this month, with the support of Western officials, the province of Kosovo applied for membership in the Council of Europe. [20] It also announced its goal of joining NATO. [21]Serbian intelligence services also learned that “two large countries” – it is not hard to guess which – are actively providing “serious logistical support” to Kosovo to compel more countries to recognize its independence. [22]

Responding to these provocative developments, Vučić remarked, “It is clear that key western countries are running this game,” and that Serbia would oppose them peacefully and diplomatically but with “no surrender.” The problem, he added, “is that everyone thinks they have the right to create Serbia’s policies” and that “they have the right to order how Serbia will behave.” [23]

Recently, G7 foreign ministers quickly followed up on the pressure campaign by issuing a statement calling upon Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia and “normalize” relations with Kosovo. [24] “G7 leaders hammered on the immutability of Ukrainian borders and urged Belgrade to join them unconditionally,” Vučić observed, “even though those same countries in Serbia rudely violated the principle of border immutability two decades ago and robbed us of part of our territory.” [25]

Serbia’s stance has been consistent. “Our only principled position,” announced Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabić, “is that we are against sanctions on Russia, as well as that we respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine and consider it wrong to violate that integrity.” [26]

Washington is not so consistent, treating international law as a menu, where an item may be chosen or ignored according to taste. Ukrainian territory is regarded as sacrosanct, whereas the US backed the breakup of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and currently campaigns for Serbian and international recognition for its theft of the province of Kosovo. Similarly, it is ramping up efforts to promote Taiwan’s separation from China and encourage separatist tendencies on the mainland. The hypocrisy can be hard to stomach. “My guts turn when I hear of principles and respect for territorial integrity,” Vučić complained. “They ask us to respect someone’s integrity, and what about ours?” [27] Concerning the unceasing pressure on Serbia to recognize Kosovo, Vučić commented, “As they say, Ukraine will not give up its integrity at any cost, and then you demand that from Serbia. For Serbia to give up its integrity, it can only happen with a gun to the forehead.” [28]

It is now Washington’s moment. The United States believes it can capitalize on the conflict in Ukraine to more thoroughly impose its will on other nations and compel obedience in furtherance of geopolitical domination. Serbia, situated in Europe, is in a particularly vulnerable position. The population of Serbia is nearly united in opposing sanctions on Russia, with the percentage in support measuring in a single digit. An even lower number favors EU membership at the cost of recognizing Kosovo.[29] Yet, the EU sets those as the two primary conditions Serbia must meet for it to be welcomed into the union. Western punishment for Serbia’s independence is already taking a toll, according to Vučić: “The price we pay is huge; we essentially have no access to the capital market.” [30]

In the weeks and months ahead, Serbia can expect to be confronted by escalating threats and blackmail. Vučić vows that although his government will “try to preserve peace and the future of Serbia,” it will not be easy. “I have never seen or dreamed of experiencing this in my life,” he said. “I have never seen such pressure. We face hysteria, and no one wants to hear, let alone listen. Unprecedented hysteria; diplomacy no longer exists.” [31] Western arrogance is not going to dissipate. It is in the DNA of imperialism. As a small nation, can Serbia maintain its sovereignty and independence and hold out against the combined might of the West? And what punishment will it have to take?

Notes.

[1] “Brnabic: Serbia to Donate 3 Mln Euros to Ukraine,” Tanjug, May 5, 2022.

[2] “Србија Даје Помоћ Од Три Милиона Евра: За помоћ деци и расељенима унутар и ван Украјине,” Večernje Novosti, May 5, 2022.

[3] “Вучић о гласању у УН: Првобитна одлука била је да будемо уздржани,” Politika, April 7, 2022.

Milenković, D., “Четири Претње Пре Гласања: Како су западне дипломате притискале нашу земљу да би је натерале да подржи резолуцију против Русије, Večernje Novosti, April 9, 2022.

[4] Србија ће бити изузета из ЕУ санкција на нафту и гас, Politika, April 8, 2022.

[5] Katić, Nebojša, “Србија и политика санкција,” Politika, April 23, 2022.

[6] Dunai, Martin, “Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic Rejects Sanctions on Russia,” Financial Times, April 21, 2022.

[7] “Serbs See Pre-dawn Strike on Milosevic Villa as an Attack on Yugoslav History,” Irish Times, April 23, 1999.

[8] Robert Fisk, “Taken in by the NATO Line,” The Independent (London), July 7, 1999.

[9] “Can Serbia Survive the War in Ukraine? What the West is Threatening Us With?” B92, March 2, 2022.

[10] Александар Вучић за РТС: Незамисливе размере безобразлука оних који прете Србији, биће много тешко, Radio Television Serbia, April 7, 2022.

[11] “US Urges Serbia to Join Sanctions Against its Ally Russia,” Associated Press, April 19, 2022.

“Вучић: Србиjа плаћа велику цену због неувођења санкциjа Русиjи,” Tanjug, April 21, 2022.

[12] “НАТО ловац пратио лет ‘Ер Србије’ у руском ваздушном простору,” Politika, April 7, 2022.

“NATO Warplanes Follow Air Serbia Jet Flying from Russia,” Tanjug, April 8, 2022.

[13] “Покажите Мало Поштовања Према Земљи у Којој Је Убијено 82 Деце!Овако је Вучић одговорио на провокативно питање новинара Дојче велеа!,” Večernje Novosti, May 5, 2022.

[14] “Вучић Поручио Грађанима: ‘Огромни су притисци на нашу земљу, наставићемо да се боримо’,” Večernje Novosti, May 6, 2022.

[15] Katy Dartford and AP, “For First Time, a Majority of Serbs Are Against Joining the EU – Poll,” Euronews, April 22, 2022.

[16] http://www.mup.gov.rs/wps/portal/sr/aktuelno/aktivnosti/03c82eeb-80b9-4650-8ad4-18d2383d72dd

[17] Sideris, Spiros, “Minister: Those Who Bombed Serbia Cannot Ask it to Join Russia Sanctions,” Euractiv, May 6, 2022.

[18] Jurica Kerbler, “Милановић у Вуковару: Нисам ултранационалиста, желим мир између Срба и Хрвата,” Večernje Novosti, May 6, 2022.

[19] https://www.predsednik.rs/en/press-center/press-releases/congratulations-of-the-president-of-the-united-states-of-america-on-the-serbian-statehood-day

[20] Cvetkovic, Sandra and Baliu, Doruntina, “Kosovo Applies for Council of Europe in Move Sure to Anger Serbia,” Radio Free Europe, May 12, 2022.

[21] “Kosovo PM Albin Kurti Expresses Willingness to Join NATO and European Union,” First Channel News, May 18, 2022.

[22] “Четири државе повукле признање КиМ, две велике земље помажу Приштини,” Politika, May 13, 2022.

[23] “Нема повлачења пред уценама и ултиматумима,” Politika, May 13, 2022.

[24] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/-/2531266

[25] D. Milinković, “Три Срамне Уцене Г7 Пред Србијом: Отели нам Косово, а траже да поштујемо украјинске границе,” Večernje Novosti, May 16, 2022.

[26] Brnabic: The Main Task is to Preserve Peace and Stability in the Region,” Telegraf, April 20, 2022.

[27] https://vucic.rs/Vesti/Najnovije/a49913-Vucic-Svi-zajedno-moramo-da-radimo-na-istoj-politici-vucic.rs.html

[28] “Vučić for RV Prva: ‘I Won’t Give Territorial Integrity of Serbia at Any Cost, Period,” B92, May 15, 2022.

[29] “Више од 80 одсто грађана Србије против санкција Русији и уласка у НАТО,” Politika, May 20, 2022.

[30] “Vučić for RV Prva: ‘I Won’t Give Territorial Integrity of Serbia at Any Cost, Period,” B92, May 15, 2022.

[31] “Вучић Са Патријархом: Притисци ће бити све већи, ја ово никада нисам видео – наше је да сачувамо мир,” Večernje Novosti, May 18, 2022.

“Vučić with the Patriarch: ‘Unprecedented Hysteria, Diplomacy No Longer Exists,” B92, May 18, 2022.


Gregory Elich is a Korea Policy Institute associate and on the Board of Directors of the Jasenovac Research Institute. He is a member of the Solidarity Committee for Democracy and Peace in Korea, a columnist for Voice of the People, and one of the co-authors of Killing Democracy: CIA and Pentagon Operations in the Post-Soviet Period, published in the Russian language. He is also a member of the Task Force to Stop THAAD in Korea and Militarism in Asia and the Pacific. His website is https://gregoryelich.org Follow him on Twitter at @GregoryElich.

 

BALKAN BLOG: Serbia signals its geopolitical alignment with EU lithium deal

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commissioner Maros Sefcovic alongside Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic during their visit to Belgrade on July 19, when they secured access to lithium, a critical material for the green transition. / bundeskanzler.de

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By Tatyana Kekic in Belgrade July 20, 2024

Serbia is back in the EU’s good books. Thanks to the country’s large lithium reserves, EU politicians have been trying to woo the Balkan state, repeating a mantra which verges on possessive: “Serbia belongs to the EU”. And Serbia is reciprocating. Rather than the usual carping, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic is singing Europe’s praises and pledging loyalty to Brussels.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz went on the diplomatic offensive on July 19, making a rare visit to Serbia’s capital, Belgrade. There, along with European Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, Scholz signed a memorandum of understanding with Serbia on a strategic partnership in raw materials, namely lithium. This will guarantee the EU access to the critical mineral used in mobile batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), which is crucial for the EU’s green transition, and also for Germany’s car industry.

The agreement is historic, and a clear demonstration of where Serbia’s loyalties lie. At a time when the country is being courted by China, Russia and the Gulf States, Serbia is promising its lithium reserves to Europe, and it has chosen an Anglo-Australian company, Rio Tinto, to open the mine. According to the Financial Times, when Chinese carmakers showed interest in Serbia’s lithium, they were basically told to jog on: “We are loyal to Europe,” said Vucic.

Some may say that this is just rhetoric, the usual posturing that disguises real loyalties to Russia or China, and is no indication that Serbia is pivoting Westwards. But if we look at the past two decades and more, since the fall of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000, Serbia’s fundamental orientation has always been to Europe. The new government has reaffirmed this, and by signing an agreement on lithium it has made actions speak louder than words.

Serbia’s alignment with the EU makes economic sense. In terms of cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) and external trade, the EU is Serbia’s most important economic partner by far. FDI coming from the EU accounted for more than 59% of total inflows from 2010 until 2022. In terms of the value of goods, in 2022 Germany had twice the volume of trade with Serbia as any other foreign trade partner. This increased by a further 13% in 2023, reaching a record €9bn.

China is certainly catching up. In 2023 it was the largest single-country investor in Serbia, accounting for more than a third of total annual FDI inflows, and it recently signed a free trade deal with Serbia. But in January to May this year, the EU remained Serbia’s largest trading partner, accounting for 60.3% of the total exchange. Russia, often pegged as Serbia’s main patron, has a relatively minor presence in terms of the economy. Apart from its monopoly on natural gas and crude oil supplies (which Serbia is trying to diversify), Serbia’s trade with Russia is limited.

Despite its close ties with the EU, Serbia has struggled to shake off the view, prominent in the Anglophone world, that it is some kind of Russian proxy. Historically, Serbia has had close relations with Russia and Moscow remains an important political ally by exercising its UN security council vote to support Serbia’s claim to sovereignty over Kosovo. However, for well over a decade Serbia has deliberately pursued a foreign policy that does not privilege any one power. Instead it has chosen to pursue a balancing foreign policy and cultivated relations with other important players, including the EU, the US, China, Turkey and the UAE.

Attaining EU membership remains a priority for Serbia’s foreign policy, but long delays in the accession process have encouraged the Western Balkan country to build external economic ties wherever it can to grow the economy. As Serbia’s national bank governor, Jorgovanka Tabakovic, said recently, instead of waiting around at the EU’s door, Serbia has “dared to have its own path and to be different”.

For a small country in the borderlands between East and West, it makes sense to keep all options open. And Serbia has a history to draw upon: Belgrade was once at the centre of non-aligned Yugoslavia, which sought to maintain autonomy and refused to be drawn into the conflict between East and West during the Cold War.

The lithium deal, among other things, demonstrates that Serbia remains wedded to the EU, even as it seeks to maintain good relations with other powers. Who knows, the deal could even give new impetus to Serbia’s accession negotiations with the EU, which have been on hold for some time.  

PHOTO ESSAY

Thousands protest Serbia’s deal with the European Union to excavate lithium


Two woman take a selfie in front of a podium prior to a protest in Sabac, Serbia, Monday, July 29, 2024. Thousands of people rallied in several towns in Serbia to protest a lithium excavation project the Balkan country’s government recently signed with the European Union.

 (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)

BY IVANA BZGANOVIC
AP

 July 29, 2024


SABAC, Serbia (AP) — Thousands of people rallied in several towns in Serbia on Monday to protest a lithium excavation project the Balkan country’s government recently signed with the European Union.

The protests were held simultaneously in the western town of Sabac and the central towns of Kraljevo, Arandjelovac, Ljig and Barajevo. They followed similar gatherings in other Serbian towns in recent weeks.

The deal reached earlier this month on “critical raw materials” could reduce Europe’s dependency on China and push Serbia, which has close ties to Russia and China, closer to the EU. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz attended the summit in Belgrade.

The deal, however, has been fiercely criticized by environmentalists and opposition groups in Serbia who argue it would cause irreversible damage to the environment while bringing little benefit to its citizens.

The biggest lithium reserve in Serbia lies in a western valley that is rich in fertile land and water. Multinational Rio Tinto company had started an exploration project in the area several years ago which sparked huge opposition, forcing its suspension.

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Earlier this month, however, Serbia’s constitutional court overturned the government ‘s previous decision to cancel a $2.4 billion mining project launched by the British-Australian mining company in the Jadar valley, paving the way for its revival.

The Serbian government’s decision to cancel the excavation plans came after thousands of protesters in Belgrade and elsewhere in Serbia blocked major roads and bridges in 2021 to oppose Rio Tinto. Those protests were the biggest challenge yet to the increasingly autocratic rule of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.

Vucic has said that any excavation would not start before 2028 and that the government would seek firm environmental guarantees before allowing the digging. Some government officials have hinted a referendum on the issue could also be held.

Protesters who gathered on Monday in Serbian towns said they did not trust the government and would not allow the excavations to go ahead.

“They have usurped our rivers, our forests,” said activist Nebojsa Kovandzic from the town of Kraljevo. “Everything they (government) do they do for their own interests and never in the interest of us, citizens.” The crowd in Kraljevo chanted ‘thieves, thieves.’

In Sabac, protesters waved Serbian flags and held a march through the town after the rally.

A man holds an old Yugoslav Communists’ flag during a protest in Sabac, Serbia, Monday, July 29, 2024. Thousands of people rallied in several towns in Serbia to protest a lithium excavation project the Balkan country’s government recently signed with the European Union. 

A man wearing a mask attends a protest in Sabac, Serbia, Monday, July 29, 2024. Thousands of people rallied in several towns in Serbia to protest a lithium excavation project the Balkan country’s government recently signed with the European Union.

A girl reacts during a protest in Sabac, Serbia, Monday, July 29, 2024. Thousands of people rallied in several towns in Serbia to protest a lithium excavation project the Balkan country’s government recently signed with the European Union.

A woman demonstrates during a protest in Sabac, Serbia, Monday, July 29, 2024. Thousands of people rallied in several towns in Serbia to protest a lithium excavation project the Balkan country’s government recently signed with the European Union.

A man wearing a traditional Serbian hat with Palestinian flag and badge reads: “We don’t give Jadar (area with lithium)!” attends a protest in Sabac, Serbia, Monday, July 29, 2024. Thousands of people rallied in several towns in Serbia to protest a lithium excavation project the Balkan country’s government recently signed with the European Union. 

A woman with drawn four Cyrillic letters for “S” on the Serbian cross, meaning: ''Only Unity Saves the Serb’’ demonstrates during a protest in Sabac, Serbia, Monday, July 29, 2024. Thousands of people rallied in several towns in Serbia to protest a lithium excavation project the Balkan country’s government recently signed with the European Union. 

A boy waves a Serbian flag during a protest in Sabac, Serbia, Monday, July 29, 2024. Thousands of people rallied in several towns in Serbia to protest a lithium excavation project the Balkan country’s government recently signed with the European Union. 

A boy waves a Serbian flag during a protest in Sabac, Serbia, Monday, July 29, 2024. Thousands of people rallied in several towns in Serbia to protest a lithium excavation project the Balkan country’s government recently signed with the European Union. 

(AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)

Serbia’s new government to include US-sanctioned ex-intelligence chief with close ties to Russia


Aleksandar Vulin, former director of Serbia’s intelligence agency attends a press conference in Belgrade, Serbia, on Sept. 8, 2021. Serbia’s new government will include a former intelligence chief, Aleksandar Vulin who has fostered close ties with Russia and is sanctioned by the United States, the prime minister - designate Milos Vucevic said on Tuesday April 30, 2024. The inclusion of Vulin into the new government suggests further shift toward Russia despite Serbia’s proclaimed pro-EU path. 

Aleksandar Vulin, former director of Serbia’s intelligence agency listens during a press conference of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Belgrade, Serbia, on Oct. 8, 2022. Serbia’s new government will include a former intelligence chief, Aleksandar Vulin who has fostered close ties with Russia and is sanctioned by the United States, the prime minister - designate Milos Vucevic said on Tuesday April 30, 2024. The inclusion of Vulin into the new government suggests further shift toward Russia despite Serbia’s proclaimed pro-EU path. 

Aleksandar Vulin, former director of Serbia’s intelligence agency, right, stands in front of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic during a press conference in Belgrade, Serbia, on July 15, 2019. Serbia’s new government will include a former intelligence chief, Aleksandar Vulin who has fostered close ties with Russia and is sanctioned by the United States, the prime minister - designate Milos Vucevic said on Tuesday April 30, 2024. The inclusion of Vulin into the new government suggests further shift toward Russia despite Serbia’s proclaimed pro-EU path. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic, File)

 April 30, 2024Share


BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — Serbia’s new government will include a former intelligence chief who has fostered close ties with Russia and is sanctioned by the United States, the country’s prime minister-designate said Tuesday.

Aleksandar Vulin will serve as one of several vice-premiers, said Milos Vucevic as he announced the composition of his future Cabinet, which is expected to be voted into office in the coming days in Serbia’s parliament.

Serbia is formally seeking European Union membership but has maintained friendly relations with Russia and refused to join Western sanctions against Moscow over its war in Ukraine.

The inclusion of Vulin into the new government suggests strengthening of ties with Russia despite Serbia’s formally proclaimed pro-EU path.

Opposition Movement of Free Citizens party said that by including Vulin in the new government, “Serbia is no longer nominally on the European path.”

The liberal party said that Vulin’s nomination heralds “international isolation of Serbia, conflicts in the region, ties to Russia and the introduction of bans on all civil liberties in our country.”

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In July, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Vulin, accusing him of involvement in illegal arms shipments, drug trafficking and misuse of public office.

The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said Vulin used his public authority to help a U.S.-sanctioned Serbian arms dealer move illegal arms shipments across Serbia’s borders. Vulin is also accused of involvement in a drug trafficking ring, according to U.S. authorities.

Vulin resigned as the director of Serbia’s intelligence agency BIA after the sanctions were imposed on him. He had previously served also as both the army and police chief.

Vulin has recently received two medals of honor from Russia, one from the Russian Federal Security Service and the other was awarded to him by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Vucevic, the new prime-minister designate, previously served as Serbia’s defense minister.

The formation of the new government follows a tense parliamentary election in December that saw the ruling populist right-wing party of President Aleksandar Vucic win most seats in the 250-member assembly. The vote fueled political tensions because of reports of widespread irregularities reported by both local and international monitors. An opposition group organized street protests in the wake of the election.

Serbia’s strong tech sector growth defies brain drain

Impact Hub Belgrade is helping to foster the tech ecosystem in Serbia. 

/ Impact Hub Belgrade


By Clare Nuttall in Belgrade and Glasgow

 July 8, 2022

LONG READ


International companies in search of tech talent and innovative local startups are converging in Serbia, an emerging high-tech hub that is especially strong in blockchain and game development.

The latest figures, announced by Nenad Popovic, Serbia’s Minister without portfolio in charge of innovations and technological development, on June 21, are startling: Serbian startups attracted over $135mn of investments in 2021 – more than six times as much as in the previous year. Meanwhile, the Digital Serbia Initiative (DSI), an NGO whose aim is to develop a globally competitive digital economy in Serbia, has its own database of startups that number over 350, and the organisation estimates there are many more, probably around 400-500 in total.

Alongside them are the international companies drawn to Serbia by the availability of tech talent and relatively low costs; DSI CEO Nebojša Bjelotomić cites costs that are two to three times lower than in major European cities combined with the quality of life in Belgrade. Among the major global companies in Serbia are Microsoft, Intel, Dell and a number of game developers such as Endava and UbiSoft.

While some Serbians are happy to work for international companies, others choose to strike out alone. This has created a growing startup scene in the last few years. Many of these new startups are nurtured by the Impact Hub Belgrade, a co-working space and a business incubator. The hub is housed in what started out as the Palace of Co-operatives, then in the socialist era became a radio studio. Now furnished with co-working desks and coffee bar, the decor pays homage to this history, and during the recent lockdowns a 21st century take on the radio studio, the podcast.rs service, was launched.

Speaking to bne IntelliNews, co-founder Nenad Moslavac recalls just how much things have changed in Serbia’s startup scene over the last eight to 10 years. “Back in 2014 it was difficult to explain what a startup is; starting your bakery is not a startup,” says Moslavac. However, even now not everyone has the startup mindset. “Serbia, like many other European countries, is a rather comfortable place… being a tech engineer puts you in a very comfortable situation. It’s difficult to take off those comfortable shoes to become a startup founder.”

Other industry insiders also believe the attitude to entrepreneurship is changing. “I think we are going through a modification of attitude. On one side entrepreneurship is maybe not something very strongly engrained in the mentality of the Serbian people, but on the other side our younger guys grew up on Silicon Valley, seeing successful entrepreneurs riding off into the sunset … this had an impact on Serbia,” says Bjelotomić.

Summing up what has happened in Serbia in recent years, Nemanja Petrovic, co-founder and business strategy adviser at startup Traken, says: “the IT sector development caught everyone by surprise. It grew organically – that’s the best thing.”

Bringing people together

Both the DSI and Impact Hub are working to bring people together – whether it’s large tech companies, startups, investors, government officials or all of these – with the aim of growing and developing Serbia’s tech ecosystem.

The DSI works with companies and the government, as well as organisations that support startups such as incubators and academic programmes. “We want to be the house for IT … we try to be middleman between big players, small players, academia, institutions, startups,” says Bjelotomić.

“You can’t really succeed without everyone being involved,” he stresses.

Nikola Mijailovic, CEO and co-founder of startup Joberty, comments on the recent changes. “Honestly, the last couple of years has been crucial for the startup ecosystem in Serbia. New accelerators, hubs and VC funds are emerging, and Serbia isn't an exception,” says Mijailovic. He also comments on the acceleration programmes in Serbia, saying: “Mentoring, investors, lectures, grants and networking are the key benefits and provide tremendous support for the startup ecosystem.”

Impact Hub also seeks to create a community for startups, and bring them into contact with investors and the wider tech community. “We are a window to the world, we try to reach out to entrepreneurs in Belgrade and beyond,” Moslavac says. COVID-19 was a challenge in that respect. However, by taking things online, the hub was able to reach out beyond Serbia to entrepreneurs in other countries in the Western Balkans.

The Serbian government is also increasingly aware of the importance of the growing tech sector, and is engaged in a dialogue with the industry. This led to, for example, the 2021 law on innovation which introduced for the first time a definition of a startup, as well as a registry of startups.

“There is a dialogue with government … there is an effort to create a better environment for the whole ICT sector and keep the ecosystem open, making it easier to start up companies,” says Traken’s Petrovic.

Investors consider Serbia

The other component of the startup ecosystem is funding. Serbia is gradually getting more locally focussed investors, a similar trend to that seen elsewhere in Southeast Europe and helped by the European Investment Fund (EIF) that was the cornerstone for a number of venture capital funds in the region. More recently, the government initiated a €50mn venture fund of funds. Among the regional venture capital investors active in Serbia are South Central Ventures, Bulgaria’s LAUNCHub Ventures and Fil Rouge Capital of Croatia.

However, Bjelotomić argues there is more still to do. “To attract serious VCs and for deal flow to be sturdy and interesting for someone from abroad, our ecosystem needs to develop further, probably go up another 50% before three of four different VCs will be continuously working in this area.”

Both Impact Hub’s Moslavac and representatives of startups like Joberty and Traken believe the country needs more business angels and other pre-seed investors. Mijailovic tells bne IntelliNews: “What I would like to see more in the future are angel investments. Also, I would like to see more potential investors from the corporate world become motivated to invest in startups, get involved in the ecosystem, learn about them and support them to succeed.”

Blockchain for the energy sector

Traken’s Petrovic makes a similar point. So far Traken has been bootstrapped and secured grants, but it is now looking for seed investment. Its team have participated in several EU accelerators. Unlike first time founders, its co-founders have the advantage of already running a blockchain development studio, which gives them access to talent and other resources.

Traken, where the team developed a data tracking, management and exploitation tool for smart electrical grids, is part of Serbia’s growing blockchain segment. Back in 2019, advisory and research organisation Startup Genome report identified Serbia among the top five destinations in the world according to the number of blockchain developers. Serbia and nearby Novi Sad were found to have a particularly promising blockchain ecosystem.

Petrovic has a broad range of industry experience including as a former economy ministry adviser, on smart city projects and a venture capital investor, experience that he now aims to bring to the energy sector.

The Traken team are getting ready to pilot the project with international distribution service operators (DSOs) after an initial pilot with local startup Cargo (the Serbian Uber). “It is a good time for us because integration of renewables was a problem for the systems even before this energy crisis,” says Petrovic. “If you want Europe to move to sustainable, renewable energy, then you have to deal with viable sources of energy that need better tools to manage flexibility.”

He references the “huge potential” of the 50% of installed solar capacity owned by individuals that is not currently part of the market. “The only way to manage it is by using blockchain. We created a system that validates the source, validates the data from source and connects data to the individual,” Petrovic explains.

The other standout area within the Serbian tech sector is game development. According to data from the Serbian Games Association, there are currently about 130 teams and companies in Serbia that are actively working on the development of games and other services closely related to the gaming industry. The organisation estimates that more than 2,200 people work in the video game sector, with another 450 jobs set to be created in 2022. Overall the Serbian video game industry had a turnover of around €125mn in 2021.

Among the most successful local companies is Belgrade-based mobile games developer Nordeus, creator of Top Eleven Football Manager and strategy game Heroic – Magic Duel. The company was acquired by Take-Two Interactive for $378mn in 2021.

Bjelotomić believes Serbian game developers can get even bigger. “Maybe we don’t have a unicorn in gaming but at least have really big global players in the market. And you never know, a single hit can make difference,” he says.

Food and agriculture

He also points to biotech and agritech as an area where Serbia has strong potential, given that “we are still predominantly an agricultural county”. New technologies to increase food production and – the other side of the coin – to reduce food waste are becoming increasingly importance in the context of climate change and the need to feed the world’s growing population.

Serbia’s second city of Novi Sad is home to the BioSense Institute that works on projects that span bio systems and IT. The institute, now an important research centre with hundreds of international partners, started out as a small group of people who believed in the idea that IT and bio systems would meet in the future, director of the institute Vladimir Crnojević said in an interview with bne IntelliNews in April. That was back in 2005-06. “At that time it was science fiction,” he says. However, he adds, focusing on that area “was a really good bet, because now it’s completely melting. The borders between bio systems and IT are getting lost”.

Today, the institute is organised in three research centres: the centre for bio systems, the centre for sensing technology and the centre for information technology. Technologies developed under its research projects are used in Serbia and elsewhere.

Another aspect of feeding the world’s growing population is reducing food waste, an issue tracked by Serbia startup EatMeApp, developer of a smart assistant that helps users make educated decisions about how and when to use their food.

“Our grandmothers and their attitude about food are our inspiration. They built into our DNA that throwing food away is not under any circumstances a reasonable thing to do. So, one day in front of my open refrigerator it struck me while I was getting ready to throw away a chicken filet (again!) – what if we have an app that sends reminders about food expiration dates?” says co-founder Aleksandra Lønningen, explaining how the company came into existence.

“Eat Me App conceptually grew since then, but it’s core mission a to assist people in making conscious and educated food consumption decisions,” Lønningen adds. “The result is less food waste, less CO2, more disposable income.”

Android and iOs versions of the app have already been released, and Lønningen says the company’s user base is growing organically thanks to early adopters. This summer there are plans to accelerate adoption with an intensive user acquisition strategy.

Lønningen believes the current difficult times – countries across Europe and much of the world are experiencing rapid inflation including of food prices – are encouraging people to live more sustainable and reduce food waste. There is also an environmental dimension. Lønningen cites data showing that food waste is the third largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, and within that household food waste accounts for 60% of total food waste. To give an idea of the scale, she says, a “family of four on average throws €30-50 weekly straight to the garbage bin”.

While there are a growing number of apps in the food waste space, EatMeApp differs from others, Lønningen says, because it is targeted at households rather than businesses such as restaurants and grocery shops. “Because we believe that the most important and numerous agent of change is – us, people, citizens.”

International talent

With local startups growing up, and the demand for skilled workers in international companies also increasing, the need to keep and retain talent in intense, a challenge cited not only in Serbia but across the region.

Joberty was set up precisely with this in mind. The company was born out of its founder’s experience of the search for talent; Mijailovic is a former CEO and co-founder of an HR company in Serbia.

“I had experienced first hand the difficulty of finding developers. And even if you magically happen to find them, it was about culture fit with the company, and developers would stay approximately 1.5 years with the IT employer … It was frustrating, so I've decided to do something about it. The idea existed in my head only for some time, and then I started opening up,” Mijailovic said.

Mijailovic and his wife Dusica, one of the company’s four co-founders and its product manager, began exploring the possibility of building a real product around this. “I never dreamed that something that was just an idea in my head would become a reality so soon. In 2019 in Belgrade, Serbia, Joberty was born, and ever since, it has grown each year exponentially. I couldn't be more proud of the team that works very hard to deliver such amazing results,” Mijailovic said.

Today, the company has 25 employees, who Mijailovic describes as its key asset, and operates in Serbia, Croatia and Romania. It currently has over 50,000 registered users, 15,000 reviews on the platform, and co-operating with over 1,200 tech companies in Southeast Europe.

Global software engineering firm DataArt, which has been present in the Balkans since it entered Bulgaria in 2016, recently acquired Belgrade-based Software Nation. “We feel confident about establishing our presence in Belgrade because of the well-rounded tech sector, and the solid tech talent in the country and the region,” said Mikhail Zavileysky, head of organisational development at DataArt, at the time of the acquisition. He describes the labour market in Serbia as “strong and developed”, pointing to particular strength in Java and .NET skills.

“DataArt has always viewed the Balkan region as promising. Now we’re focused on Belgrade, but we’re planning to open a second office in Novi Sad – a prominent university town with great talent,” Zavileysky says, commenting to bne IntelliNews on the partnership with Software Nation.

"We’re actively recruiting locally, and we welcome everyone who’s decided to relocate to Serbia. Erik Popovic, SVP DataArt Balkans, is spearheading our effort and helping us find the best talent. Remote recruiters are helping us as well."

Later in 2022, developer of online military games Wargaming announced the opening of two new studios in Belgrade and Warsaw following its decision to quit Russia and Belarus after the invasion of Ukraine. The company commented that both cities have “fast developing technology sectors with enormous potential”.

Working with the brain drain

Serbia, like other countries in the Western Balkans – and across most of emerging Europe – has experienced mass emigration and population decline in the last few decades. That makes competition for talent all the more intense.

The DSI’s Bjelotomić notes that the brain drain is a huge problem for Eastern Europe, especially Southeast Europe, though he believes it has slowed down recently, for two reasons. “First IT is such global industry it doesn’t matter where you sit, you can do your job anywhere. The second factor is corona; when the going gets tough, the best thing is to go home.”

When it comes to tacking the brain drain, Bjelotomić believes the good jobs offered by the IT sector can help. “These are the good jobs, where people get to be creative, to grow personally and professionally. They are the guys that don’t leave … in that sense helping startups is almost like social service.”

Impact Hub’s Moslavac acknowledges the problem of brain drain and the difficulties in reversing it, but says it’s important to look for the positives. “We have good examples from other counties where lot of good talent left, but brought back knowledge and often funding,” he says. “I don’t think the brain drain is something that can really be stopped, but probably there are ways for Serbia to benefit more from great people that are not physically here.”

Petrovic also talks of Serbia’s “very big technical diaspora”, with highly educated Serbians who left their home country now sharing experience and knowledge. Like Bjelotomić, he believes there has been movement back into Serbia since the start of the pandemic, not least because it was one of the first countries in Europe to roll out a mass vaccination programme.

He believes Serbia has benefited from its relationships with developing countries forged during the Cold War when Yugoslavia was one of the leaders of the non-aligned movement. Even today, Serbia is well known among those nations. “We’re a brand in these countries, [young people are] still coming here to go to college,” he says. This brings new talented graduates into Serbia.

More recently, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, countries across emerging Europe, including Serbia, have received a flood of immigrants, among them numerous tech professionals. These include both Ukrainians fleeing the war and Russians and Belarusians who can no longer live with their government’s actions and their countries’ international isolation. DataArt’s Zavileysky comments that the Serbian market "is welcoming many engineers from Russia and Ukraine, which certainly has an impact”.

Starting with education

The start of creating a new generation of tech talent lies in education, and the DSI is reaching out to universities and schools to help. The organisation has been working with the education system from elementary school right through to postgraduate level. This includes the Master 2.0 programme where the DSI brings different faculties together to create cross-disciplinary master programmes that give students the skills to work in industries such as game development.

Industry representatives say that while Serbia provides a good technical education more needs to be done on the commercial side. “We need to change that,” says Bjelotomić. “It’s good that we are good engineers, but it’s important to note that people investing in startups are predominately from the financial sphere. They are looking for entries and exits, not necessarily for the best technology.”

Similarly, Moslavac says that Serbia has a strong education that is “left over from the old system of building good engineers”. However, he says, “being a good engineer doesn’t make you a good businessman … to build a a good startup you have to understand business. There are a lot of smart people around but it’s not about building a perfect product, it’s about having a perfect customer for the product.”

On the other hand, Traken’s Petrovic is positive about Serbia’s "very good old school, technically based curriculum” which, he believes, “is a goldmine if you know how to act on it”. This education is coming into its own with the emergence of the blockchain industry.

Global companies with Serbian roots

One constraint cited many times by industry figures in Belgrade is the small size of the Serbian market. That being the case, ambitious startup founders look to go international from the start or at least early on in their development.

“The size of the market is a challenge for startup founders here. It’s a very small market with not such a startup culture,” says Maslovac. “Serbia is place of talent – there is certainly a lot of talent in Serbia, especially tech talent – however, such a market makes it very difficult to build a product or service for the customer, as this is a numbers game. This is why it’s very interesting to approach the market of the Western Balkans, which has a potential 20mn users instead of 6mn for their services.”

Some of the really standout Serbia-founded companies went abroad early on. Among them is consulting, software engineering and digital product development company HTEC Group, which now has its headquarters in San Francisco. In 2021, the company bought up Momentum Design Lab in Silicon Valley, following this with the announcement of a $140mn investment from Brighton Park Capital for global expansion. That deal was among the largest initial funding rounds by dollar value in Europe in the past year, HTEC said at the time.

Following the latest investment round, the aim is to “build HTEC into one of the most impressive global technology consulting companies,” said Aleksandar Cabrilo, CEO of HTEC Group at the time of the investment. The company, founded in 2008 as a startup within the Business Technology Incubator of Technical Faculties of the University of Belgrade, has now grown into an international company that employs over 1,000 people.

Startups interviewed by bne IntelliNews also referenced international expansion. Traken, for example, is seeking to work with electricity companies from other European countries rather than focussing on Serbia.

Joberty is fundraising for a seed round that it plans to use for its expansion to global markets, including the US. “Our plans are ambitious, but simply that's the only way to go,” said Mijailovic. “The startup scene is very fast-paced, and if you move slowly, you might still survive, but you won't win big time. Big dreams took us here, and we won't stop until we succeed globally.”

EatMeApp’s Lønningen says "going global” when asked about the future plans for the company. At the same time, however, she talks of the power of Serbia’s culture and social networks. “[Co-founder] Sanja Dramicanin] and myself … want to create even stronger momentum in Serbia,” Lønningen says. “We dream big, cross-border, but our heart is where our home is and our grandmothers are.”

Serbian democracy activists feel betrayed as freedoms, and a path to the EU, slip away

JOVANA GEC and DUSAN STOJANOVIC
Tue, December 12, 2023
 

KRALJEVO, Serbia (AP) — When Serbia began talks to join the European Union in 2014, pro-Western Serbs were hopeful the process would set their troubled country on an irreversible path to democratization. A decade later, that optimism is gone, replaced by feelings of betrayal — both toward their government, which has slid toward autocracy, and the EU, which has done little to stop it.

Predrag Vostinic, 48, says he became a democracy activist by necessity — his way of pushing back against the rising authoritarianism, government corruption and organized crime gripping the Balkan nation. Since May, a grassroots movement he founded in the central city of Kraljevo has joined weekly protests against the government of President Aleksandar Vucic, part of a wider movement.

He and other members of the group faced threats in the streets and on social media. Other government opponents, in Kraljevo and elsewhere, have been sidelined at work or sacked from their jobs in state-run companies, he said.


Still, he said, it’s worth it: “You become sort of a public voice for people.”

Pro-Western Serbs like Vostinic hoped the EU would act as a counterweight, drawing Serbia back to a more democratic path. Instead, Brussels has held back, as Serbia diverted from the EU's stated values, activists say.

“This is one of the reasons why EU’s losing credibility and why the pro-European part of the Serbian society is in a defensive position, because there is nothing to defend," said Vladimir Medjak, deputy head of the European Movement in Serbia and a former member of the EU membership negotiation team.

Even before Vucic came to power in 2012, Serbia was slow to complete the reforms needed to qualify as an EU candidate, such as ensuring the rule of law and a market economy that could integrate with the bloc. And in recent years, after declaring EU membership a strategic goal, it has instead sought stronger ties with Russia and China.

STRUGGLE FOR DEMOCRACY

Serbia’s struggle for democracy began with the fall of Communism in the late 1980s and the wars that followed the violent breakup of the former Yugoslavia. Strongman Slobodan Milosevic’s warmongering in the 1990s turned Serbia into an international pariah, while NATO bombed the country in 1999 to stop the war in the breakaway province of Kosovo.

Milosevic was ousted in 2000 by pro-democracy parties openly backed by the West, setting the stage for reintegration into the international community and the start of democratic reform.

“It wasn’t good enough … but you still had a country where things started to resemble European standards,” said Dragan Djilas, a former mayor of Belgrade who is now one of the leaders of a pro-European coalition that is challenging Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party in parliamentary and local elections on Dec. 17.

“We had free elections, we had the possibility of change (of power) in elections … No one threatened you for thinking differently and no one blackmailed you,” he said. “Today’s Serbia ... would not even be allowed to become a candidate for EU membership.”

Public support in Serbia for joining the EU stands at about 40%. Under the circumstances, pro-democracy activists say, that counts as a success.

EU DEALS CAUTIOUSLY WITH SERBIA

The EU’s enthusiasm for enlarging the bloc waned after 2013, when Serbia’s neighbor Croatia became the newest country to join. The EU had accepted 13 new member states since 2004, most of them in Central and Eastern Europe and needing substantial injections of financial support. The prospect of taking in additional members who would be a drain on the EU budget was hardly enticing.

And then there was Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008. The move was not recognized by Belgrade — nor by some EU member countries with separatist movements of their own, such as Spain, or with close ties to Serbia, such as Cyprus and Greece. The wars of the 1990s had subsided, but Serbia’s unresolved final borders left a huge question mark over its suitability to join the EU.

The EU paid lip service to further enlargement with regular membership updates but made little response as Vucic steadily took over the levers of power in Serbia. Over the years, he and his authorities installed loyalists in key government positions, including the military and secret service, and imposed control over the mainstream media while stepping up pressure on dissent.

“Problem is that all this happened during the EU’s watch,” Medjak said.

With war raging in Ukraine, analysts say the EU has been careful not to push Serbia further away, even as Belgrade refused to join Western sanctions against Moscow. The U.S. and EU have worked closely with Vucic to try to reach a deal in Kosovo, where tensions at the border have threatened regional stability.

ANTI-DEMOCRATIC TIDE RISES

Vucic dismisses criticism that his government has curbed democratic freedoms while allowing corruption and organized crime to run rampant. Pro-government tabloids and state-run media, such as the broadcaster RTS, give scant coverage to the opposition, while dozens of rights groups have faced investigations into their finances.

Vucic regularly blasts Djilas and other opposition leaders as enemies of the state and “thieves” who are taking instructions from Western embassies. Mainstream pro-government media give them no opportunity to respond to the allegations.

During the wars of the 1990s, Vucic was an extreme nationalist who supported Milosevic’s aggressive policies toward non-Serbs. After Milosevic fell, Vucic reinvented himself as a pro-European, helping to found the Serbian Progressive Party in 2009 and pledging to take the country into the EU.

He never delivered on his promises.

Since 2014, Serbia has dropped down the international rankings on democracy. Reporters Without Borders says journalists are threatened by political pressure, while Transparency International ranks Serbia below most countries in the region when it comes to fighting corruption.

In recent years, Serbia's ruling party has "steadily eroded political rights and civil liberties, putting pressure on independent media, the political opposition, and civil society organizations," said the monitoring group Freedom House in its most recent report.

Serbia’s Ministry for European Integration did not grant an interview to the AP, citing the upcoming elections. EU officials also declined to comment.

While activists lament the stagnation of its EU membership bid, Serbia recently received a strong vote of confidence from Italy’s far-right premier, Giorgia Meloni.

Flanked by Vucic, Meloni praised his statesmanship, saying, “Europe isn’t a club who decides who is and who is not European.’’

A CHALLENGE TO SERBIA'S PRESIDENT

In recent months, Vucic has faced a new challenge to his authority. In May, 19 people, many of them children, were killed in two back-to-back mass shootings. The attacks shocked the public, galvanizing protests against a climate of fear and intolerance promoted by the ruling elite.

As he has done in the past when he felt he was losing his grip on power, Vucic called snap parliamentary and local elections for dozens of Serbian towns and cities, including Belgrade.

In response, the protesters formed their own electoral coalition, fielding candidates across the country. Vucic himself is not a candidate this time, but the opposition has hopes of denting his authority by taking control of some local councils.

Political activist Vostinic, who braved pressure from the ruling party in Kraljevo to lead protests there, said Serbia’s society had taken a wrong turn, allowing “people with bad intentions to fill in the gap.”

The EU, he said, is no longer an ally in defending its own values but has focused on economic and other interests, more concerned about countering Russia and China.

Public disappointment is such that “we who support the respect of European values are starting to feel uneasy," Vostinic said.

Opposition leader Djilas is even harsher, saying that “EU politicians largely are allies of Aleksandar Vucic.”

“As a student, my dream was Serbia as a part of Europe, of the European Union,” he said. “I have to admit that now the dream is sometimes turning into a nightmare.”

___

AP writer Frances D’Emilio contributed from Rome.

____

This story, supported by the Pulitzer Center for Crisis Reporting, is part of an ongoing Associated Press series covering threats to democracy in Europe.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic speaks during a pre-election rally of his ruling Serbian Progressive Party in Belgrade, Serbia, Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023. When Serbia formally opened membership negotiations with the European Union, back in 2014, it was a moment of hope for pro-Western Serbs, eager to set their troubled country on an irreversible path to democratization. Those days are long gone. Now, they feel betrayed, both by the government and the EU. 

(AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)

Xi’s Visit and a New Poll: The Geopolitical Contest for the Western Balkans

by Sead Turčalo
May 20, 2024

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent stop in Serbia as part of his first European visit in five years was a potent reminder of the shifting geopolitical allegiances in the Western Balkans and the historical undercurrents that continue to shape this tumultuous region. New poll results also illustrate the variations in views of China across the region and the competing interests the United States and European Union face in seeking to integrate the Western Balkans into the EU and NATO.

Xi’s visit was laden with symbolism and strategic calculations. As the second stop on his European tour, after France and before Hungary, it reasserted China’s growing influence in a region historically dominated by fluctuating European and American interests. In that sense, the story is not just about China’s or Russia’s rise but about the West’s inconsistent engagement, which has left a vacuum that leaders in Beijing and Moscow – who reaffirmed their alliance in a two-day meeting in Beijing just last week — are all too eager to fill.

Xi and his Serbian counterpart, President Aleksandar Vučić, used the occasion to reassert their strategic alliance and their mutual political support, reflecting their similar authoritarian tendencies and territorial ambitions, even as Serbia ostensibly seeks European Union membership. Contrary to the European Union’s posture – and that of most of Europe — Vučić repeated his endorsement of China’s claim on Taiwan, while Xi voiced China’s support for Serbia’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity,” common phrasing that China often applies selectively and that in this case suggested backing for Serbia’s claims on Kosovo.

His visit also, not coincidentally, occurred on the 25th anniversary of NATO’s 1999 bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, an incident the alliance contends was a tragic error in the heat of the effort to stop a military assault by Serbia’s Slobodan Milošević against Kosovo’s ethnic Albanians. But while Xi referred to the incident in an op-ed in a Serbian news outlet, he chose not to visit the site, apparently in an effort to not overly inflame the United States or its NATO allies.

But Xi recalled his visit eight years ago when Serbia became China’s “first comprehensive strategic partner” in Central and Eastern Europe. He signaled that the partnership deepened with this visit, declaring that Serbia would also be the first to “build a community of destiny with China.”

The welcoming ceremony before a crowd in front of the presidential palace in Belgrade underscored Serbia’s role as a pivotal ally for China in Eastern Europe, set against a backdrop of significant commercial and infrastructure cooperation that has unfolded in recent years. In addition to mines and factories that China already owns in Serbia, the two countries signed 29 agreements covering areas from high technology to infrastructure, demonstrating the depth of the partnership and the broad scope of future collaborative projects.

Some in Serbian academic circles also had expressed hope that Xi’s visit might help weaken support for a draft resolution being considered in the United Nations General Assembly to commemorate the 1995 Srebrenica Genocide by Bosnian Serb forces, backed by Serbia, against Bosniaks (Muslims) in eastern Bosnia. Those opposing the proposed resolution deny that the atrocities that killed more than 8,000 Bosniak men and boys constituted genocide, arguing that such a label would be a stain on all Serbs, even though the resolution doesn’t specifically identify the perpetrators and multiple international courts have ruled the massacres a genocide. But while the two leaders didn’t make public reference to the draft, which is led by Germany and Rwanda, Xi’s visit could very well have sent signals to some General Assembly member States about which side they should back if and when it comes to an already delayed vote.

Signaling Alternative Alliance Options

Overall, Xi’s visit helps Vučić signal to the EU that he has alternatives for alliances, options that speak to Serbia’s traditional ties and cultural leanings towards Eastern powers, especially Russia but also China. It is a path starkly different from Serbia’s neighbors, who are largely looking westward, aligning far more firmly with the EU and NATO.

A new survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI) illustrates the geopolitical tensions and competition across the region. A notable 46 percent of respondents in Serbia consider Russia to be the country’s “most important ally.” That no doubt reflects deep ties and mutual interests, particularly in countering what they perceive as Western hostility toward Serbs and false notions that the West aims to abolish the majority Serb entity Republika Srpska in neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina. It’s disinformation amplified regularly by the Kremlin. Far behind Russia as an ally, China nevertheless ranks second in the poll as the most important ally for 14 percent of respondents.

These allegiances match significant distrust toward the West, particularly the United States, based in part on memories of NATO’s intervention during the 1999 Kosovo War that either linger or are newly inflamed on a regular basis by vocal hardliners across mostly state-aligned news outlets and social media. For example, the IRI poll shows that 36 percent of respondents in Serbia view the United States as “the most important threat” for the country, followed at a distance by Albania and Kosovo. Russia and China don’t even register in the top five.

Conversely, Kosovo and Albania are increasingly leaning towards the West, viewing it as a protector and a promoter of their statehood and economic development. In the poll, Kosovo especially shows strong pro-American sentiment, with 71 percent viewing the United States “highly” favorably and 80 percent identifying it as the country’s most important ally. That likely reflects a gratitude rooted in ongoing U.S. support for its independence, despite the pressure the U.S. is exerting, along with the EU, on Kosovo’s leaders to reach an accommodation with Serbia to gain Serbia’s recognition, even as Vučić has said in no uncertain terms he has no plans to do so.

Similarly, Albania’s overwhelming favorability towards the EU (92 percent would vote in favor of accession) and NATO (85 percent supporting its current full membership status) underscores a regional divergence that is as much about political and social worldviews as it is about economic opportunity. In contrast to the high favorability rating of the United States in Kosovo and Albania, only 4 percent of respondents in Serbia have a “highly favorable” view of the United States.

China’s Economic – and Strategic — Footprint

China’s expanding influence in the Western Balkans evokes a spectrum of responses among the public, based on the IRI poll, likely reflecting its expanding economic and strategic footprint in the region. Countries such as North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania display a palpable sense of optimism, with China viewed overall as “highly” or “somewhat” favorable by 56 percent, 53 percent, and 43 percent of respondents respectively. This may be due in significant part to anticipated, albeit unrealized, investments and infrastructure projects tied to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which are envisioned to bring economic and developmental benefits. In Bosnia, for instance, the favorable support for China may come largely from Republika Srpska, in part linked to a promised but elusive power plant known as Gacko 2. In these countries, the image of China as a pivotal economic ally appears to eclipse any geopolitical concerns linked to its ascent.

In Serbia, support for China is, of course, even more pronounced. It ranks at the top of the list of countries with highly favorable perceptions among respondents, at 88 percent, equaling the level of favorability towards Russia. While Serbia’s favorable view of Russia is largely shaped by historical, cultural, and ideological ties, China’s appeal is driven by economic factors and by its shared role with Russia as a global challenger to the West.

In recent years, Serbia has emerged as a focal point for Chinese investment in the Western Balkans and Central and Eastern Europe, establishing China as Serbia’s largest single foreign investor. By 2022, Chinese investments in Serbia matched the combined investments of all 27 EU member States. This dramatic increase began with limited investments in the early 2010s but surged with strategic acquisitions like the Smederevo Steel Mill in 2016 and significant bottom-up foreign direct investment projects such as the construction of the Linglong tire factory. Major investments by Chinese companies including Zijin Mining in Serbia’s mining sector and Minth Automotive in the automotive industry highlight the breadth of China’s economic footprint. Despite challenges related to environmental impacts and regulatory compliance, Chinese investments have significantly influenced Serbia’s industrial revival and economic landscape, underscoring the deepening “steel friendship,” as they call it, between the two nations.

In stark contrast to Serbia, Kosovars rated China markedly lower on favorability, with 79 percent of respondents viewing China either somewhat or highly unfavorably. This negative perception is likely shaped by multiple factors, including Kosovo’s strong pro-Western stance and the geopolitical dynamics, especially China aligning with Serbia by not recognizing Kosovo’s independence. Additionally, the global discourse on China’s “debt diplomacy” and concerns over the long-term ramifications of its economic engagements may resonate more acutely in Kosovo. This contrasting stance within the region underscores the complexities of China’s global relations and highlights the diverse responses to its rising influence in the Balkans, shaped by local geopolitical alignments, economic expectations, and broader international tensions.

Interestingly, the IRI poll gauged perceptions of the motives behind Chinese investments across the Western Balkan countries, and the variations again reflect their distinct socio-economic and geopolitical contexts. A significant portion of Serbians, 53 percent, view these investments as primarily economically advantageous, dovetailing with the Serbian government’s pronounced alignment with China. Conversely, in Kosovo and Bosnia, 45 percent and 51 percent, respectively, see these investments as either coming with “political expectations” or “primarily about influence and control of our country,” an outlook shaped by their politically sensitive environments and histories marked by foreign interventions.

A Reassessment Should Be In Order

As China deepens its strategic and economic footprint in the Western Balkans, Western policymakers must reassess their engagement strategies to counterbalance Beijing’s growing influence. Xi’s trip, particularly the symbolic timing around the NATO bombing anniversary, highlights China’s savvy in leveraging historical grievances for diplomatic gain. Serbia’s alignment with China and Russia, underscored by Vučić’s endorsement of China’s stance on Taiwan and reciprocal support for Serbia’s claims on Kosovo, indicates a deliberate pivot away from Western integration. This is evident in Serbia’s skepticism towards NATO in the IRI poll, with only 10 percent holding a positive view and just 3 percent considering full membership viable, as well as the 40 percent supporting EU membership, highlighting ambivalence towards Western alliances. This stance, coupled with significant Chinese investments and infrastructure projects, positions Serbia as a critical ally for China in Eastern Europe.

The varied perceptions of China in the Western Balkans, shaped by economic hopes and political anxieties, reflect an urgent need for the EU and the United States to present a cohesive, compelling vision that addresses both the economic aspirations and security concerns of the region. But accomplishing that also requires getting the politics right – the countries of the region need functional, effective governance unhindered by corruption before they can possibly meet those economic and security goals. Failure to do so risks further entrenching Eastern influence, complicating efforts to stabilize and integrate this strategically vital region into Western frameworks.

IMAGE: Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic (R) walks with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony in Belgrade, on May 8, 2024. (Photo by ELVIS BARUKCIC/AFP via Getty Images)

About the Author(s)

Sead Turčalo

Sead Turčalo (@sturcalo) is an associate professor in Security Studies and has been the Dean of the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Sarajevo since 2019.