Japan's ruling party loses its majority in blow to new PM
Shaimaa Khalil and Kelly Ng - BBC News in Tokyo and Singapore
Mon, October 28, 2024
The election was called by the LDP’s new leader Shigeru Ishiba before he had been officially sworn in as prime minister [Getty Images]
The coalition led by Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has lost its majority in parliament, its worst result in over a decade.
The LDP and its much smaller coalition partner Komeito, have taken 215 seats together, falling short of the 233-seat majority needed to govern. The party's new leader Shigeru Ishiba said there are no plans to expand the coalition at this stage.
Ishiba, who called the election just days before he was sworn in as prime minister, has vowed to stay in office despite the LDP's loss of parliamentary majority.
In a speech on Monday, he said the party has received "severe judgement", adding they would "humbly" accept this.
"Voters have handed us a harsh verdict and we have to humbly accept this result," Ishiba told national broadcaster NHK.
"The Japanese people expressed their strong desire for the LDP to do some reflection and become a party that acts in line with the people's will," he said.
Ahead of the election, Japanese media had reported that if the LDP loses its parliamentary majority, Ishiba could quit to take responsibility, which would make him Japan's shortest-serving prime minister in the post-war period.
This is the first time the LDP has lost its parliamentary majority since 2009. Since its founding in 1955, the party has ruled the country almost continuously.
The result comes after a tumultuous few years for the LDP which saw a “cascade” of scandals, widespread voter apathy and record-low approval ratings.
The party had seen approval ratings of below 20% earlier in the year, in the wake of a political fundraising corruption scandal.
Ishiba on Monday pledged to reform "enact fundamental reform regarding the issue of money and politics".
"We need to answer to the people’s criticism. That is how I will take responsibility for the loss of the election," he said.
He also promised to revitalise rural Japan and tackle inflation.
Meanwhile, largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), won 148 seats at around 02:00 JST (17:00 GMT), according to NHK.
Yet opposition parties have failed to unite, or convince voters they are a viable option to govern.
The CDP, which is the main opposition party, had an approval rating of just 6.6% before parliament was dissolved.
CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda on Monday said he plans to work with other parties to oust the incumbents.
“It is so hard to make decisions to choose parties, I think people are losing interest,” Miyuki Fujisaki, a long-time LDP supporter who works in the care-home sector, told the BBC ahead of polls opening.
The LDP, she said, has its problems with alleged corruption, “but the opposition also does not stand out at all”.
“They sure complain a lot, but it’s not at all clear on what they want to do,” the 66-year-old said.
Early on Monday, the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index was up by around 1.5%, while the yen fell against the US dollar.
For all the apathy, politics in Japan has been moving at a fast pace in recent months.
Ishiba took over as prime minister after being voted in by the LDP following his predecessor Fumio Kishida - who had been in the role since 2021 – making a surprise decision to step down in August.
The move to call the election came at a time when the LDP is desperate to restore its tarnished image among the public. Ishiba - a long-time politician who previously served as defence minister - has described it as the “people’s verdict”.
A series of scandals has tarnished the party’s reputation. Chief among them is the party’s relationship with the controversial Unification Church - described by critics as a “cult” - and the level of influence it had on lawmakers.
Then came the revelations of the political funding corruption scandal. Japan’s prosecutors have been investigating dozens of LDP lawmakers accused of pocketing proceeds from political fundraising events. Those allegations - running into the millions of dollars - led to the dissolution of powerful factions, the backbone of its internal party politics.
“What a wretched state the ruling party is in,” said Michiko Hamada, who had travelled to Urawa station, on the outskirts of Tokyo, for an opposition campaign rally.
“That is what I feel most. It is tax evasion and it’s unforgivable.”
[Reuters]
It strikes her as particularly egregious at a time when people in Japan are struggling with high prices. Wages have not changed for three decades – dubbed “the lost 30 years” – but prices have risen at the fastest rate in nearly half a century in the last two years.
This month saw more price hikes on thousands of food products, as well as other day-to-day provisions like mail, pharmaceuticals, electricity and gas.
“I pay 10,000 yen or 20,000 yen ($65 - $130; £50 - £100) more for the food per month (than I used to),” Ms Hamada said.
“And I’m not buying the things I used to buy. I am trying to save up but it still costs more. Things like fruit are very expensive.”
She is not the only one concerned with high prices.
Pensioner Chie Shimizu says she now must work part-time to make ends meet.
“Our hourly wage has gone up a bit but it does not match the prices,” she told the BBC as she picked up some food from a stand at Urawa station.
“I come to places like this to find something cheaper and good because everything in regular shops is expensive.”
Additional reporting by Chika Nakayama
Japan plunged into political uncertainty after voters deliver dramatic defeat to longtime ruling party
Helen Regan and Yumi Asada, CNN
Mon, October 28, 2024
Japanese voters delivered a stinging rebuke to the country’s longtime ruling party in elections Sunday, plunging the world’s fourth largest economy into a rare period of political uncertainty.
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed almost continuously since 1955, has lost its parliamentary majority in the powerful lower house for the first time in 15 years.
Public anger and distrust in the government had been growing over rising living costs, inflation and a massive political funding scandal at the heart of the LDP, with voters voicing their discontent at the ballot box.
The LDP and its coalition partner Komeito secured just 215 of the House of Representatives’ 465 seats, short of the 233 needed to reach a majority, according to public broadcaster NHK.
The result is a major blow to freshly minted Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, whose gamble to call a snap election to bolster his position after taking office only this month dramatically backfired.
Ishiba said Monday that voters had delivered an “extremely harsh judgement” his party must take “seriously and solemnly,” but also indicated he would not step down as prime minister.
“I myself will also go back to the start and promote severe internal reforms within the party and further drastic reforms regarding the political situation,” he said.
Ishiba said the party did not have a coalition in mind to put forward to govern but it will begin by “discussing each of the party’s policies.”
Elections for Japan’s lower house are usually a foregone conclusion, with the conservative LDP dominating the country’s post-World War II political scene.
Now, it’s unclear who will govern Japan as Ishiba, a former defense minister and political veteran, may struggle to form a government.
Ahead of the elections, the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito had a stable majority of 279 seats while the LDP alone had 247. On Sunday, the LDP won just 191 seats – its worst result since 2009, when the party suffered its biggest defeat and was forced to hand control to an opposition party.
To remain in power, the LDP could try and bring other parties into its coalition or rule via a minority government, with both options putting Ishiba’s position as prime minister in jeopardy.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) won 148 seats, a significant increase from 98. CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda said in a press conference Sunday, “Our goal was to break the ruling party’s majority, and we achieved it, which is a great accomplishment.”
Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks to the media at the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) headquarters. - Takashi Aoyama/Pool/REUTERS
Fresh setback
Before the election, the LDP faced falling approval ratings and public discontent over one of the country’s biggest political scandals in decades. Families and households are facing increased financial burdens, which have been exacerbated by the weak yen, a sluggish economy and high inflation.
The funding scandal involved millions of dollars in undocumented political funds, with some factions in the party accused of paying lawmakers with the proceeds of fundraising sales as kickbacks, or failing to properly declare their income.
Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida tried to contain the damage by replacing several cabinet ministers and dissolving LDP factions, essentially coalitions within the party. But he faced calls to resign and announced in August that he would not run for a second term.
Ishiba reportedly said he would not officially endorse some party lawmakers caught up in the scandal, but they were allowed to run as independents.
The Prime Minister has also appeared to backtrack on a number of positions since becoming LDP president. He had supported legislation that could allow married women to keep their maiden names, but later said it called for “further discussion,” according to Kyodo News.
As defense minister, Ishiba was strong on deterrence as a security issue. Before the election, he proposed an Asian version of the NATO security bloc, an idea he has apparently dropped after it was rebuffed by the US.
Ishiba has also pledged financial help to low-income households, a higher minimum wage, and regional revitalization, according to Reuters. He promised a “full exit” from Japan’s high inflation rates, vowing to achieve “growth in real wages.”
Japan’s elections come just over a week before the United States votes for a new President. Ishiba has made strengthening Japan’s relations with the US a priority and seeks deeper ties with allies amid growing security challenges in Asia, including an increasingly assertive China and belligerent North Korea.
Partnership with Japan has long been central to US strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, and Ishiba’s predecessor Kishida this year expanded Japan’s defense cooperation with its key ally. Ishiba has called for a more balanced relationship, including having greater oversight of US military bases in Japan, Reuters reported.
On Monday, Ishiba told reporters Japan “will strengthen our ties with the United States even more” and maintain the “extremely good Japan-US relationship and work to strengthen the free and open international order.”
In a political culture that prizes conformity, Ishiba has long been something of an outlier, willing to criticize and go against his own party. That willingness to speak out has made him powerful enemies within the LDP but endeared him to more grassroots members and the public.
Now, the jockeying for power will kick off with all parties seeking alliances to secure enough seats to form a government.
Ishiba and the LDP’s political future is uncertain, and one of the world’s most important economies faces a period of instability until upper house elections next summer.
This story has been updated with additional information.
Japan’s politics gets a rare dose of upheaval after snap election
Shaimaa Khalil - BBC Tokyo correspondent
Sun, October 27, 2024
PM Shigeru Ishiba's governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has lost its majority [Getty Images]
Japanese elections are normally steady and boring affairs - but this snap election was neither.
The dramatic vote follows a political funding corruption scandal that was revealed last year, which implicated senior lawmakers and cabinet members from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), tarnishing its image and angering the public.
It was the perfect storm - a scandal that saw dozens of LDP lawmakers investigated over pocketing millions of dollars in proceeds from political fundraisers, while households struggled with inflation, high prices, stagnant wages and a sluggish economy.
In the end, a furious and tired electorate sent a strong message in Sunday's vote, punishing the LDP at the ballot box. And it was a stunning blow: a party which had ruled Japan almost continuously since 1955 lost its single-party majority in the powerful lower house.
But there was no clear winner either. A fractured opposition failed to emerge as a viable alternative when the public was looking for one.
Although severely bruised, the LDP still won more seats - 191 - than the biggest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), whose final tally stands at 148 seats.
“This election appears to be about voters who are fed up with a party and politicians they see as corrupt and dirty. But it’s not one where they want to bring about a new leader,” said Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies.
And yet the old leadership's fate is unclear. The LDP's governing coalition has fallen short of the halfway mark - 233 seats in the 465-member Diet - after its ally Komeito lost several seats, including that of its chief.
Even with Komeito's 24 seats, the LDP will be unable to muster a majority.
It's a "severe judgment", said Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was sworn in as prime minister only early this month after winning a tight party leadership race.
Voters had "expressed their strong desire for the LDP to reflect and become a party that will act in line with the people's will", he said on Sunday, as results emerged.
Japan's ageing population is one of the biggest challenges for the next government [Getty Images]
The hope was that Ishiba as leader could save the LDP at the ballot - rising discontent and plummetting ratings had forced out the last PM, Fumio Kishida.
Still, Ishiba took a gamble when he announced a snap election less than a month ago - and it has backfired.
Both he and his party underestimated the extent of public anger and, crucially, their willingness to act on it.
To stay in power, the LDP will now need to form a coalition with other parties it fought in the election. And it will do so from a position of significant weakness because it must negotiate and make concessions to survive.
It is hard to overstate how rare this is - the LDP has always enjoyed a safe and steady place in Japanese politics.
And it has a strong track record of governance – when the opposition did take over in 1993 and 2009, it ended badly.
Japan's ruling party loses its majority in blow to new PM
Japan’s embattled PM had a cruel summer – it ends with his exit
Since the LDP came back to power in 2012, it has managed to win every election, almost uncontested. There has long been resignation about the status quo, and the opposition remains unconvincing to the Japanese people.
“I think we [the Japanese] are very conservative,” Miyuki Fujisaki, a 66-year-old voter, told the BBC a few days before the election.
“It’s very hard for us to challenge and make a change. And when the ruling party changed once [and the opposition took over], nothing actually changed in the end, that’s why we tend to stay conservative."
Ms Fujisaki said that she had inititially been unsure who to vote for, especially with the fundraising scandal hanging over the LDP. But given that she had always voted for them, she said she was probably going to do the same this time too.
Although the main opposition party - the CDP - made significant gains, observers say these results are less about voters endorsing the opposition than about their ire with the LDP.
Despite voters wanting to hold their politicians accountable, “in [their] minds... there really is no-one else" they trust to lead the country, Mr Hall said.
What that leaves Japan with is a weakened LDP and a splintered opposition.
The country has long been seen as a beacon of political stability, a haven for investors and a reliable US ally in an increasingly tense Asia Pacific. So the uncertainty is concerning not just for its own people, but also its neighbours and allies.
At home, a shaky coalition will not help with turning the economy around, raising wages and improving welfare for a rapidly ageing population.
Adam Withnall
Sun, October 27, 2024
Prime minister Shigeru Ishiba reacts to the election results in a press conference at LDP party headquarters (JIJI PRESS/AFP via Getty Images)
Japan’s ruling coalition has lost its majority in a punishing set of results from Sunday’s general election, throwing the country into the kind of political instability not seen for decades.
With the final constituency accounted for, prime minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner Komeito had just 215 seats, down from 279 and well short of the 233 needed to form a government.
It is the worst result for the LDP – which has ruled Japan for 65 of the past 69 years – since 2009, when it briefly fell out of power.
A chastened-looking Mr Ishiba told TV Tokyo it was a “very tough” election for the party, which had its reputation badly damaged by a corruption scandal involving money siphoned off from party fund-raising events.
Of 46 candidates who admitted to financial reporting errors and either had the whip withdrawn or partially lost the party’s backing, only 18 were able to retain their seats. Analysts say those who won as independents may be brought back into the LDP fold now that they have been approved by the voters.
People vote during the general election at a polling station in Tokyo on Sunday (EPA)
The result shows the “severe” level of public distrust in the LDP as a result of the slush fund scandal, Yu Uchiyama, professor of political science at the University of Tokyo, told The Independent.
“Unless Ishiba and the LDP seriously implement political reform, they might not be able to recover people’s support,” he said.
Some of the biggest names in the ruling coalition failed to win seats, including Komeito’s leader Keiichi Ishii. “We have no choice but to rebuild the party,” after Mr Ishii’s defeat, a party spokesperson told reporters.
File: Shigeru Ishiba and Keiichi Ishii (left) of the Komeito Party are seen during an election campaign event in Soka (AP)
The opposition party that gained the most from the collapse in LDP support was the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), which outperformed expectations to take 148 seats, up from 98 at the last election.
Opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda celebrated the results at a press conference, telling the media: “We accomplished our goal of preventing the ruling coalition from a majority, which was a major achievement.”
Yet while opposition parties collectively won enough seats to form a majority, a grand coalition between them is seen as unlikely given they span the full political spectrum and have drastically opposed views on key matters from fiscal and defence policy to the use of nuclear energy.
Opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda reacts to the Constitutional Democratic Party’s strong exit poll results on Sunday evening (EPA)
With its 191 seats the LDP remains the single largest party and could still cobble together a government by adding a third coalition partner.
Mr Ishiba declined to comment on the shape of power-sharing talks until the full results are formally declared, but he is most likely to turn first to either the centrist Democratic Party for the People or the conservative Japan Innovation Party. They took 28 and 38 seats respectively.
Both parties have previously ruled out a formal coalition with the LDP, however, meaning at best they are likely to only join a partial coalition where the government would have to approach them for their backing on legislation on a case-by-case basis.
Such a fragile government will inevitably leave Mr Ishiba vulnerable to a leadership challenge from within his own party. Waiting in the wings is Sanae Takaichi, the preferred choice from the ultra-conservative faction of the LDP who Mr Ishiba, a moderate, defeated in last month’s leadership election.
Japan’s then-economic security minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference in September 2024 to announce her candidacy for the party leadership (AP)
Mr Ishiba was seen as having decent approval ratings after that victory and called the snap election in order to try and capitalise on his honeymoon period. Yet his popularity tanked as he U-turned on a number of policies – including creating an Asian version of Nato, support for same-sex marriage and the right for married individuals to choose to keep different surnames – after entering office.
Sunday’s election was held amid an atmosphere of deep voter apathy in Japan, with little fanfare or excitement seen on the streets of Tokyo. Voters described being put off the LDP by the slush fund scandal yet reluctant to vote for the opposition given their lack of experience running the world’s fourth-largest economy.
This sentiment was borne out by the turnout figures, down almost two percentage points to 53.84 per cent as of the preliminary results at 9am on Monday morning. That’s the third-lowest turnout in Japan’s post-war history, and one of the worst among any developed nation.
Japan's ruling coalition loses majority, election outcome in balance
Sakura Murakami, John Geddie and Tim Kelly
Updated Sun, October 27, 2024 at 6:02 PM MDT
4 min read
Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience.Generate Key Takeaways
By Sakura Murakami, John Geddie and Tim Kelly
TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority in a drubbing at Sunday's national election, raising uncertainty over the make-up of the next government and the outlook for the world's fourth-largest economy.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled Japan for almost all of its post-war history, and junior coalition partner Komeito took 215 seats in the lower house of parliament, public broadcaster NHK reported.
That was down from the 279 seats they held previously and marked the coalition's worst election result since it briefly lost power in 2009.
"This election has been very tough for us," a sombre-looking Ishiba told TV Tokyo.
Komeito's Keiichi Ishii, who took over as that party's new leader last month, lost in his district.
The biggest winner of the night, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), had 148 seats, up from 98 previously, as voters punished Ishiba's party over a funding scandal and inflation.
The outcome may force parties into fractious power-sharing deals to rule, potentially ushering in political instability as the country faces economic headwinds and a tense security situation in East Asia.
"This is not the end, but the beginning," CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda told a press conference, adding that his party would work with other opposition parties to aim for a change of government.
Ishiba earlier in the night said he would wait until the final results before considering potential coalitions or other power-sharing deals.
The prime minister had called the snap poll immediately after being elected to head the party last month, hoping to win a public mandate for his premiership. His predecessor, Fumio Kishida, quit after his support fell due to anger over a cost of living crunch and the scandal involving unrecorded donations to lawmakers.
The election also took place nine days before voters in the United States - Japan's closest ally - head to the polls in another unpredictable ballot.
POLITICAL DEALS, MARKET JITTERS
The yen fell to a three-month low and Japanese stocks are expected to decline while longer-dated government bond yields are seen rising as investors react to the uncertainty.
"The voters' judgment on the ruling bloc was harsher than expected," said Saisuke Sakai, senior economist at Mizuho Research and Technologies.
"Uncertainty over the administration's continuity has increased, and the stock market is likely to react tomorrow with a sell-off, especially among foreign investors."
The LDP has held an outright majority since it returned to power in 2012 after a brief spell of opposition rule. It also lost power briefly in 1993, when a coalition of seven opposition parties formed a government that lasted less than a year.
Smaller parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) or the Japan Innovation Party, could now prove key to forming a government.
The DPP won 28 seats and the Japan Innovation Party 38 seats, according to NHK. But both propose policies at odds with the LDP line.
DPP chief Yuichiro Tamaki has not ruled out some cooperation with the LDP-led coalition, but Innovation Party head Nobuyuki Baba has rejected the idea.
The DPP calls for halving Japan's 10% sales tax until real wages rise, a policy not endorsed by the LDP, while the Innovation Party has pledged tougher donation rules to clean up politics.
"The DPP is focused on ultimately making the country better and ensuring financial resources are allocated more appropriately, so that's why I decided to vote for them," Keisuke Yoshitomi, a 39-year-old office worker, said after casting his vote at a polling station in Tokyo.
Political wrangling could also be a headache for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) if Ishiba chooses a partner that favours maintaining near-zero interest rates when the central bank wants to gradually raise them.
The Innovation Party opposes further increases in interest rates, and the DPP leader has said the BOJ may have been hasty in raising rates, while the central bank wants to gradually wean the Japan off decades of massive monetary stimulus.
"With a more fluid political landscape, pushing through economic policies that include raising taxes, such as to fund defence spending, will become much harder," said Masafumi Fujihara, associate professor of politics at Yamanashi University.
"Without a strong government, it would be more difficult for the BOJ to raise rates and keep the weak yen under control."
When Japan's predictable politics go awry
Reuters
Updated Sun, October 27, 2024
Japan holds general election
TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its ruling coalition partner lost their majority in a general election on Sunday, throwing the make-up of the next government into flux.
The LDP has governed for almost all of Japan's postwar period, but here are examples of times it has lost power or needed to rely on other parties.
1983
Despite opinion polls that it would win comfortably, the LDP fell short of a majority in what was then the lowest postwar voter turnout. To stay in power, it entered a coalition with the New Liberal Club, a now-defunct party formed as a breakaway from the LDP in 1976.
In the following election, in 1986, current premier Shigeru Ishiba first entered parliament after a brief banking career.
1993
Facing a backlash over corruption scandals, the LDP again fell short of majority. Although it won the most seats, seven opposition parties - including two that had broken away from the LDP ahead of the vote - formed a coalition and kicked the LDP out of power for the first time since its 1955 formation.
Infighting led to successive leadership changes, and the coalition collapsed in less than a year.
2000
Six months before the election had to be held, LDP Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi suffered a stroke and later died. He was succeeded by Yoshiro Mori, a gaffe-prone figure who eroded the party's popularity ahead of the vote.
In the first election since the LDP tied up with the newly formed Komeito, a party backed by a large Buddhist lay group, it relied on Komeito's seats to stay in power. The two parties have ruled since, apart from a brief period when they lost power in 2009.
2009
The Democratic Party ousted the coalition in a landslide during the turmoil of the global financial crisis.
But the Democrats' perceived mishandling of the massive 2011 earthquake and tsunami that crippled the Fukushima nuclear plant and other mishaps allowed the LDP to regain control in the following 2012 election.
The Democrats dissolved in 2016, while the rump of the party eventually became the current main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and a smaller group forming the Democratic Party for the People.
(Reporting by John Geddie and Sakura Murakami; Editing by William Mallard and Raju Gopalakrishnan)
The Japanese parties that may jockey for power after election
Tim Kelly
Updated Sun, October 27, 2024 at 8:05 PM MDT
3 min read
Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, speaks at a campaign for the upcoming general election in Tokyo
Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience.Generate Key Takeaways
By Tim Kelly
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition looks set to lose its parliamentary majority, exit polls from Sunday's general election suggest, meaning a possible scramble by parties to form a government.
Following are the main players in any post-election jockeying for power:
LDP
Having ruled for almost all of Japan's postwar period, Ishiba's conservative LDP has struggled with voters angry about a months-long political funding scandal.
The party promised to clean up its finances ahead of the election but allowed most of more than 40 lawmakers who failed to record political donations to stand for the party.
The party of Ishiba, who called the election immediately after Fumio Kishida resigned to take responsibility for the scandal, also faces public dissatisfaction over rising prices.
The LDP, which entered the election with 247 seats, is forecast to fall to between 153 and 219 seats, short of the 233 needed for a majority in the lower house.
KOMEITO
The LDP's longtime coalition partner has helped it keep control of parliament for most of the past two decades, apart from three years when the parties were out of power from 2009.
Affiliated with Japan's largest lay-Buddhist organisation, Sokka Gakkai, Komeito supports the LDP during campaigning, its vast network providing election volunteers.
In return for its support, Komeito gets the Land Transport and Infrastructure post in the cabinet and is consulted on policy.
Komeito has been less willing than the LDP to step back from the pacifism that has marked Japan since its World War Two loss, including decisions to double military spending, arm the country with longer-range weapons and end rules that limit military exports.
The party, which is defending 32 seats, may have won as many as 35 seats, polls suggest.
CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRATS
Japan's largest opposition group, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the rump of the party that ousted the LDP in 2009, fought this campaign by attacking the LDP over its funding scandal and by promising measures to tackle inflation.
Yoshihiko Noda, prime minister for a year before the LDP returned to power in 2012, became leader of the centre-left party in September.
If the LDP-Komeito coalition cannot cobble together a majority, the CDPJ could try to form a government with other opposition parties.
The party is set to double its 98 seats, NHK forecast.
JAPAN INNOVATION PARTY
The third-largest party in the lower house before the election with 44 seats, the right-wing group led by Donald Trump admirer Nobuyuki Baba is aligned with the LDP on security policy, including increased defence spending and a proposal to revise the country's war-renouncing constitution.
In the campaign Baba did not rule out the possibility of working with the LDP in a post-election administration.
Originating in the industrial western city of Osaka, the Innovation Party advocates for smaller government and in the lower house election campaign pledged to clean up politics with stricter rules on donations, as well as welfare and education reforms.
The party won as many as 45 seats, NHK forecast.
DEMOCRATIC PARTY FOR THE PEOPLE
Despite coming into the election with just seven seats, the DPP might emerge as a kingmaker.
Formed in 2020 by former Democratic Party lawmakers who declined to join the CDPJ, it advocates cutting Japan's sales tax and income taxes, and health insurance contributions.
Party leader Yuichiro Tamaki, a former finance ministry bureaucrat, was a senior party during the Democrat-led government from 2009. Before this election, he said he would not go into a coalition with the LDP.
The DPP expanded to as many as 33 seats, NHK forecast.
(Reporting by Tim Kelly; Editing by William Mallard and David Evans)
